KHAS 109 Computational Thinking
Achieving Competitive Advantage
Ass’t Prof. Dr. Mehmet Çiçek, PhD CPA
Week 09
Project Scheduling:
Networks, Duration
Estimation, and Critical
Path
Learning Objectives (1 of 2)
9.1 importance of project scheduling techniques.
9.2 key scheduling terminology.
9.3 activity network using Activity-on-Node (AON)
technique.
9.4 activity duration estimation based on the use of
probabilistic estimating techniques.
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Learning Objectives (2 of 2)
9.5 Construct the critical path for a project schedule
network using forward and backward passes, determine
project slack, and calculate the probability of finishing on
time.
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Core Concepts
covered in this chapter includes:
1. Plan Schedule Management
2. Define Activities
3. Sequence Activities
4. Estimate Activity Resources
5. Estimate Activity Durations
6. Develop Schedule
7. Control Schedule
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Project Scheduling
Project scheduling requires us to follow some carefully laid-out
steps, in order, for the schedule to take shape. PMBoK states,
“an output of a schedule model that presents linked activities
with planned dates, durations, milestones, and resources.”
Project planning, as it relates to the scheduling process, has
been defined by the PMBoK as:
The identification of the project objectives and the ordered
activity necessary to complete the project including the
identification of resource types and quantities required to
carry out each activity or task.
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Network Diagram—Serial Sequential Logic
Figure 9.2A Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment
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Network Diagram – Nonserial Sequential Logic
Figure 9.2B Alternative Activity Networks for Term Paper Assignment
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Project Scheduling Terms (1 of 4)
• Project Network Diagram: Any schematic display of the
logical relationships of project activities.
• Path: A sequence of activities defined by the project
network logic.
• Event: A point when an activity is either started or
completed.
• Node: One of the defining points of a network; a junction
point joined to some or all of the other dependency lines
(paths).
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Project Scheduling Terms (2 of 4)
• Predecessors: Those activities that must be completed
prior to initiation of a later activity in the network.
• Successors: Activities that cannot be started until
previous activities have been completed. These activities
follow predecessor tasks.
• Early start (ES) date: The earliest possible date the
uncompleted portions of an activity can start.
• Late start (LS) date: The latest possible date that an
activity may begin without delaying a specified milestone.
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Project Scheduling Terms (3 of 4)
• Forward pass: Network calculations to determine earliest
start/earliest finish for an activity through working forward
through each activity in network.
• Backward pass: Network calculations to determine late
start/late finish for uncompleted tasks through working
backward through each activity in network.
• Merge activity: An activity with two or more immediate
predecessors.
• Burst activity: An activity with two or more immediate
successors.
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Project Scheduling Terms (4 of 4)
• Float: The amount of time an activity may be delayed
from its early start without delaying the finish of the
project.
• Critical path: The path through project network with the
longest duration.
• Critical Path Method: A network analysis technique
used to determine the amount of schedule flexibility on
logical network paths in project schedule network and to
determine minimum project duration.
• Resource-limited schedule: Start and finish dates
reflect expected resource availability.
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AOA Versus AON
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Node Labels
Figure 9.3 Labels for Activity Node
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Serial Activities
Serial activities are those that flow from one to the next, in
sequence.
Figure 9.5 Project Activities Linked in Series
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Concurrent Activities
When the nature of the work allows for more than one
activity to be accomplished at the same time, these
activities are called concurrent, and parallel project
paths are constructed through the network.
Figure 9.6 Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent)
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Figure 9.7 Merge Activity
Activity D can only begin following the completion of
activities A, B, and C.
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Figure 9.8 Burst Activity
Activities B, C, and D can only begin following the
completion of activity A.
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Complete Activity Network
Figure 9.10 Complete Activity Network for Project Delta
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Duration Estimation Methods
• Experience
• Expert opinion
• Mathematical derivation—Beta distribution
– Most likely (m)
– Most pessimistic (b)
– Most optimistic (a)
• Two assumptions used to convert m, a, and b into time
estimates (TE) and variances ( s 2 ) are :
2
a 4m b ba
Activity Duration TE Activity Variance s 2
6 6
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Figure 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal)
Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation
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Figure 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution
for Activity Duration Estimation
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Activity Duration Estimates (1 of 2)
Table 9.2 Activity Duration Estimates for Project Delta
Name: Project Delta
Durations are listed in weeks
Activity Description Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A Contract signing 3 4 11
B Questionnaire design 2 5 8
C Target market ID 3 6 9
D Survey sample 8 12 20
E Develop presentation 3 5 12
F Analyze results 2 4 7
G Demographic analysis 6 9 14
H Presentation to client 1 2 4
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Activity Duration Estimates (2 of 2)
Table 9.3 Estimated Project Activity Times Using Beta Distribution
Name: Project Delta
Durations are listed in weeks
Activity Description TE 1: 4 : 1 ratio / 6
T E start fraction left parenthesis
1:4:1 ration right parenthesis over 6
A Contract signing 5
B Questionnaire design 5
C Target market ID 6
D Survey sample 12.7
E Develop presentation 5.8
F Analyze results 4.2
G Demographic analysis 9.3
H Presentation to client 2.2
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Constructing the Critical Path
• Forward pass—an additive move through the network
from start to finish
• Backward pass—a subtractive move through the
network from finish to start
• Critical path—the longest path from end to end which
determines the shortest project length
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Figure 9.16 Partial Project Activity
Network with Task Durations
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Figure 9.18 Activity Network with Forward
Pass
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Figure 9.19 Activity Network with
Backward Pass
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Figure 9.20 Project Network with Activity
Slack and Critical Path
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Figure 9.24 AON Network with Laddering
Effect
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Figure 9.25 Example of a Hammock
Activity
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Options for Reducing the Critical Path
1. Eliminate tasks on the critical path.
2. Replan serial paths to be in parallel.
3. Overlap sequential tasks.
4. Shorten the duration on critical path tasks.
5. Shorten early tasks.
6. Shorten longest tasks.
7. Shorten easiest tasks.
8. Shorten tasks that cost the least to speed up.
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Thanks
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