Assignment Activity Unit 3
University of the People
MATH 1280 - Introduction to Statistics
Instructor name: Bhaskar Palit
Student name : Mouhamad Ahmat Aboutiman
Probability Concepts and Applications:
A Study of Greenfield High School
Activities
Introduction
Probability theory provides a framework for understanding uncertainty and predicting outcomes
in various scenarios. At Greenfield High School, the experiential approach to learning allows for
the practical application of these concepts. This report analyzes three specific activities
undertaken by students to define key terms, visualize data using Venn and tree diagrams, and
calculate probabilities in replacement and non-replacement scenarios.
Question 1: Definitions of Probability Terms
Based on the activities of Group A (rolling a die) and Group B (flipping a coin then rolling a die),
the fundamental terms of probability are defined as follows:
1-Experiment: An experiment is a planned operation or procedure carried out under controlled
conditions that yields data (Illowsky & Dean, 2013). In Activity 1, rolling the six-sided die (Group
A) and flipping the coin followed by rolling a die (Group B) are both experiments.
1-Sample Space: The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
*For Group A, the sample space is \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}.
*For Group B, the sample space involves pairs of coin and die results, such as \{(H,1), (H,2)...
(T,6)\}.
[Link]: An event is any subset of the sample space. For Group A, rolling an "even number"
\{2, 4, 6\} is a specific event.
1. Outcome: An outcome is a single result of an experiment. For example, rolling a "4" is
one specific outcome in Group A’s experiment.
2. Probability: Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will
occur, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).
3. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at
the same time. In Activity 1, the outcomes "Even" and "Odd" are mutually exclusive
because a single die roll cannot be both even and odd simultaneously.
4. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. In Group B, flipping the coin and
rolling the die are independent events; getting "Heads" does not change the likelihood of
rolling a "6."
Question 2: Venn and Tree Diagrams
Activity 2 presented survey data regarding student participation in Leadership (L) and Team
Building (T) workshops. The total number of students surveyed was 150.
Data Summary
● Total Students: 150
● Participated in Leadership (L): 70
● Participated in Team Building (T): 80
● Participated in Both (L \cap T): 50
● Participated in Neither (L' \cap T'): 50
Venn Diagram Representation
A Venn Diagram illustrates the relationship between the two sets.
Tree Diagram of Participation Probabilities
The following tree diagram breaks down the conditional probabilities of participation.
graph LR
Question 3: Probability Calculations (The Green and
Yellow Balls)
In Activity 3, students solve problems using a box containing 8 green balls (G) and 4 yellow
balls (Y).
● Total balls: 12
CASE 1: With Replacement
In this scenario, a green ball is drawn and then placed back into the box before drawing the
yellow ball. Because the ball is replaced, the events are independent.
1. Probability of drawing Green (G): P(G) = \frac{8}{12} = \frac{2}{3}
2. Probability of drawing Yellow (Y): P(Y) = \frac{4}{12} = \frac{1}{3}
Decimal Answer: Approximately 0.222 (or 22.22%)
CASE 2: Without Replacement
In this scenario, the green ball is drawn and kept out of the box. This changes the total number
of balls for the second draw, making the events dependent.
1. Probability of drawing Green (G): P(G) = \frac{8}{12}
2. Probability of drawing Yellow given Green was drawn (Y|G):
○ Remaining balls: 11
○ Remaining Yellow balls: 4
○
Decimal Answer: Approximately 0.242 (or 24.24%)
Conclusion
The activities at Greenfield High School effectively illustrate the differences between
independent and dependent events. By organizing data into tables and diagrams, and
calculating probabilities based on replacement conditions, we can accurately quantify the
likelihood of various outcomes in real-world scenarios.
References
Illowsky, B., & Dean, S. (2013). Introductory Statistics. OpenStax.
[Link]
UoPeople. (n.d.). Learning Resource Center. University of the People.