Chapter 6

Introduction to crop Simulation Models and their uses

for optimization of Agricultural Inputs;
A model is a simplified representation of a system or a process. A model construct a
conceptual framework that describes a system. Modelling is based on the assumptions that
any given process can be expressed in formal mathematical statement or set of statements.

A simulationis the imitation of the operation of real-world process or system over time.
Generation of artificial history and observation of that observation history. Simply simulation
means the process of building models and analysing the system.

The behaviour of a system that evolves over time is studied by developing a simulation
model.

Crop model: It is a simple representation of a crop. Crop models are tools of systems
research which help in solving problems related to crop production.

Objectives of Simulation modelling

• To investigate a wide verity of “what if” questions about real-world [Link]

changes to the system can be simulated and predicate their impact on the system. Find
adequate parameters before implementation.
• To predicating the effect of changes.
• To predicate the performance of new system.
• To promote the use of systems analysis for solving problems.
• To assimilate knowledge gained from field experimentation.
• To provide a structure that promotes interdisciplinary collaboration.
• To offer dynamic, quantitative tools for analysing the complexity of cropping systems.
• To do simulation before Implementation.

Types of Models

Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the models areclassified into different
groups or types.
a. Statistical models: These models express the relationship between yieldor yield
components and weather parameters. In these models relationshipsare measured in a system
using statistical [Link]: Step down regressions, correlation, etc.

b. Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationshipbetween weather
parameters and yield, but also the mechanism of thesemodels (explains the relationship of
influencing dependent variables). Thesemodels are based on physical selection.

c. Deterministic models: These models estimate the exact value of the yieldor dependent
variable. These models also have defined coefficients.

d. Stochastic models: A probability element is attached to each output. Foreach set of inputs
different outputs are given alongwith probabilities. Thesemodels define yield or state of
dependent variable at a given rate.

e. Dynamic models: Time is included as a variable. Both dependent andindependent

variables are having values which remain constant over a givenperiod of time.

f. Static: Time is not included as a variables. Dependent and independentvariables having

values remain constant over a given period of time.

g. Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematicalrepresentation of a

real world system. One of the main goals of cropsimulation models is to estimate agricultural
production as a function ofweather and soil conditions as well as crop management. These
modelsuse one or more sets of differential equations, and calculate both rate andstate
variables over time, normally from planting until harvest maturityor final harvest.

h. Descriptive model: A descriptive model defines the behaviour of a systemin a simple

manner. The model reflects little or none of the mechanismsthat are the causes of phenomena.
But, consists of one or moremathematical equations. An example of such an equation is the
one derivedfrom successively measured weights of a crop. The equation is helpful
todetermine quickly the weight of the crop where no observation was made.

i. Explanatory model: This consists of quantitative description of themechanisms and

processes that cause the behaviour of the system. To createthis model, a system is analyzed
and its processes and mechanisms arequantified separately. The model is built by integrating
these descriptionsfor the entire system. It contains descriptions of distinct processes suchas
leaf area expansion, tiller production, etc. Crop growth is a consequenceof these processes.
 When Simulation Is Appropriate

• Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a subsystem with complex system
• Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and find their
effects
• A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about improvement of system
• Finding important input parameters with changing simulation inputs
• Simulation can be used with new design and policies before implementation
• Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help determine the requirement
• Simulation models designed for training make learning possible without the cost disruption
• A plan can be visualized with animated simulation
• The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service organization) is too complex
that its internal interaction can be treated only by simulation

When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

• When the problem can be solved by common sense.

• When the problem can be solved analytically.

• If it is easier to perform direct experiments.

• If cost exceed savings.

• If resource or time are not available.

• If system behaviour is too [Link] human behaviour.

ADVANTAGES

• New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son on can be explored without
disrupting ongoing operation of the real system.

• New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems etc., can be tested without
committing resources for their acquisition.

• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or slow-down of the

phenomenon( clock is self-control).

• Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and important variables to the
performance.
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process, the system is
delayed.

• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates.“What if” questions
can be answered.

DISADVANTAGES

• Model building requires special training. Vendors of simulation software have been actively
developing packages that contain models that only need input (templates).

• Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.

• Simulation modelling and analysis can be time consuming and [Link] simulation
software have output-analysis

Development of Model
Crop model required certain input data which is used by the model to further generate the
required output. Crop modelling required data related to weather, crop, soil, management
practices and insect-pests.
Weather data includes: “Maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity,
solar radiation and wind speed. Weather data is required at daily time step to assess daily
crop growth process.
Crop data includes; Crop name, variety name, crop phenology (day to analysis, day to
maturity, etc.) leaf area index, grain yield above ground bio-mass, 1000 grain weight.
Soil data includes; Thickness of soil layer, pH, EC, N, P, K, soil organic carbon, soil texture,
sand ad clay per cent, soil moisture saturation field capacity and wilting point of soil, bulk
density.
Crop management data includes; Date o sowing of crop is required to intimate the
simulation process. Generally sowing date is taken as the start time of simulation. In case of
transplanted rice date of transplanting is used instead of date of sowing. Seed rate and depth
of seedling are also required. Use of inputs in crop field, namely, irrigation fertilizer,
manure, crop residue, etc. Need to be mentioned. Amount of these inputs are specified along
with their type, date of application and depth of placement. If crop residues are organic
nutrient sources are applied in the field then C: N ratio of those sources are quantified.
Pest data includes: Name and type of the pest, their mode of attack, pest population at
different crop growth stages. Data on insects or pests are included only in those models which
contains the pest module.
STEPS IN MODELLING
• Define goals: Agricultural system is complex comprising of various disciplines, in
order to develop or understand a crop model one requires strong knowledge base of
different subjects. Depending upon the objective of study. Knowledge base of
different disciplines is integrated to develop a crop model.
• Define system and its boundaries: In agriculture, crop field is chosen as a system.
• Define key variables in system: Variables include state, rate, driving and auxiliary
variables. State variables are those which can be measured or quantified, e.g. soil
moisture content, crop yield etc. Rate variables are the rates of different processes
operating in a system, e.g. photosynthesis rate, transpiration rate, Driving variables
are the variables which are not part of the system but the affect the system, e.g.
sunshine, rainfall, Auxiliary variables are the intermediated products, e.g. dry matter
portioning, water stress etc. These variables are identified in the crop field. After
identification of these variables relationship among different variables is determined
and a relational diagramme is drawn (Fig.1). This helps in better understanding of the
whole process.
• Quantify relationships: Once the relationship is established it is then quantifies
using different mathematical equations and functions.
• Calibration/Validation: When the model is developed, it requires calibration and
validation. First the model is run with any experimental data set and calibrated
accordingly. Calibrated model is then validated with another experimental dataset to
check its simulation ability under different situations or environment.
• Sensitivity analysis: Validated model is then tested for its sensitivity to different
factors (e.g. temperature, rainfall N dose). This is done to check whether the model is
responding to changes in those factors or not.
• Simplification: Any model is initially written in computer programming languages,
but they are mode simple by making it user friendly.
• Use of models in decision support: Once developed, calibrated and validated any
model can be used in any decision support system for forecasting or making suitable
decisions regarding crop management.
POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS OF CROP MODEL:
• Estimation of potential yields
• Estimation of yield gaps: principal causes and their contribution
• Yield forecasting
• Impact assessment of climatic variability and climatic change
• Optimizing management – Dates of planting, variety, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer
• Environmental impact – percolation, N losses, GHG emissions, SOC dynamics
• Plant type design and evaluation
• Genotype by environment interactions

LIMITATION OF MODELLING:
• Input data: Models require large amount of input data, which may not be available
with user.
• Required skilled manpower.
• Knowledge of computer and computer language is essential.
• Limited awareness and acceptance towards modelling.
• Multidisciplinary knowledge.
• No model can take in to account all the existing complexity of biological system.
Hence simulation results have errors.
• A model is tool for improving critical thought, not a substitute of it.
• Models can help formulate hypothesis and improve efficiency of field experiment.
• Model developed for a specific region cannot be used as such in another region.
Proper parameterisation and calibration is needed before using the model.

Points to be considered while development of a model

The following points shall be taken intoconsiderations in model development and their
application as precautions inagricultural meteorological studies.

• Adequate human resource capacity has to be improved to develop andvalidate simulation

models across the globe.
• Multi-disciplinary research activities are essential for qualitative works incrop growth
modelling.
• Linkages shall be made and strengthened among research – education –extension to
quickly disseminate the outcomes of models to farmers.
• Majority of models use rainfall data at monthly interval, which is too longa period when
compared to short duration of dry land crops (Sorghum, pearl millet mature in 100 days).
So, there is an urgent need to correctthis anomaly by selecting proper methodologies.
• It is important to differentiate between models of interest for research andfor practical
application. So, models useful to farmers with minimum inputparameters shall find right
place in the society.
• It is always preferable to use one or more methods / models in conjunctionto get more
realistic conclusions useful to the farmers, who are the ultimatebeneficiary along with
industries.
• The requirements in terms of details for local agricultural planning andoperations are quite
different from regional agricultural [Link], while selecting / using any model,
it must be kept in mindthe clear objective of study on one hand and verifying with ground
truth(irrespective of the claims of the modal author) on the other hand.
• The results / output of the models must be interpreted in an appropriateway by integrating
soil, weather and crop. This interpretation is the keyfor success of agrometeorological
models. So, application of crop growthmodels shall form a part of studies of agro
meteorologists on a regular andmore continuous basis.
• One should trust contemporary models particularly those concerned withyields. Wide
variations may be found in the yield predicted by differentmodels for specific crop in a
defined environment. There is a need todevelop test and improve the models with similar
basis till they achievecomparable success for use by farmers, extension workers industry,
[Link] reason is that the farmer needs them for decision-making, because itwas found that
the model can be used to identity new sites suitable fordevelopment of crop which finally
results in generation of income to them.
• It will be important to link the crop simulation models to local short and long-term
weather forecasts. This will improve the yield predictions andprovide policy makers with
advanced yield information to help manageexpected famines and other associated
problems.
 Question Bank
1. What is meaning of simulation modelling. Write down objectives of simulation modelling.
2. Define modelling. Write down different types of models.
3. What are the advantages and disadvantages of simulation modelling.
4. Explain different steps in modelling.
5. Write possible applications of modelling with their limitation.
6. What points to be considered while development of a specific model?
Weather data model Crop data model
Crop management data model Pest data model