Vashishtha 1

Kalindi Vashishtha

Roll no. IIGLIRD208071

Diploma in International Affairs and Diplomacy

Assignment for Paper II

15 October 2023

India’s Geopolitical Pivot: Unraveling the Dynamics of India’s

Engagement with West Asia

India holds a middle power status and possesses an increasingly influential mindset on

the global stage. In this emerging multipolar world, India's foreign policy faces both

opportunities and challenges. A noteworthy aspect is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's

prioritization of the economy, aiming to establish favorable external conditions for

domestic economic growth. He has demonstrated dynamism by engaging with major

powers, revitalizing India's integration into the global economy, fostering cooperation

with South Asian neighbors, and reinvigorating strategic ties in regions like the Indian

Ocean, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.

India's foreign policy exhibits pragmatism through its diverse approaches, such as

elevating Indo-U.S. relations to new heights and collaborating with China on climate

change, all while opposing China's territorial claims in the South China Sea and the

One Belt One Road Project. In response to China's influence, India has actively

pursued strategic partnerships with the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific

region, all the while safeguarding its strategic independence. A significant challenge to

India's foreign policy, however, lies in the deteriorating relations with Pakistan
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Sustaining stability in the Persian Gulf over the past half-century has been a

formidable undertaking, primarily orchestrated by the United States (US). The

stability of this region has been intricately tied to a precarious balance of power, which

initially revolved around Iran but later shifted to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This

equilibrium was disrupted when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait occurred in 1990.

Gulf Balance of Power: The Balance Of Power in the Recent Past

Sustaining stability in the Persian Gulf over the past half-century has been a

formidable undertaking, primarily orchestrated by the United States (US). The

stability of this region has been intricately tied to a precarious balance of power, which

initially revolved around Iran but later shifted to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This

equilibrium was disrupted when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait occurred in 1990.

The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, exposed the vulnerabilities of the post-

1990 Gulf power structure, prompting a significant shift in US Gulf policy. The US

aimed to address the root causes of terrorism, pursue democratic reforms in the region,

recalibrate the regional power dynamics, and prevent certain regimes from acquiring

weapons of mass destruction. However, the ensuing military intervention in the Gulf

did not achieve these goals and led to growing doubts about the sustainability of US

hegemony in the region.

Simultaneously, the US underwent an energy revolution, with advancements in

unconventional fossil fuel extraction technologies, such as shale fracking, resulting in

increased domestic oil and gas production. This development reduced the nation's
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reliance on foreign energy sources, potentially making it energy-independent from the

rest of the world.

Nevertheless, the US maintains its strategic interest in the Gulf due to concerns about

counter terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, ongoing security commitments, and the

recognition that Gulf oil prices influence global oil markets, unlike gas.

The United States' commitment to upholding a balance of power in the Persian Gulf

has grown increasingly fragile. This shift is exemplified by the reduction of US

military presence in the region, which has seen a decrease from three carrier task

forces to just one. Furthermore, Washington has outlined a national security strategy

that places strict constraints on the deployment of US military force, diminishes the

nation's involvement in regional and global issues, and declares that the US is no

longer solely responsible for providing global public goods or addressing global

crises. These developments have raised doubts within the region regarding the US's

resolve and capability to ensure stability in the Gulf, particularly due to its hesitancy to

take decisive actions on matters such as the Syrian regime, a potential Iranian nuclear

capability, and strained relationships with key allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

While the US has intervened against the Islamic State (IS), its reluctance to commit

ground troops and emphasis on shared responsibilities with regional actors dominate

its policy. This shift has resulted in Iran gaining increased influence, with the implicit

support of US air power, while the overall US presence in the region weakens.

Several potential scenarios for the future emerge. One suggests that US isolationism

may be temporary, with a new administration and economic recovery prompting a

resurgence of active US involvement in stabilizing the Gulf. Alternatively, Iranian

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dominance could take hold, especially if a nuclear agreement is reached, potentially

reshaping regional dynamics. Another scenario envisions a nuclear arms race, with

Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear capabilities from Pakistan, prompting Iran to respond in

kind. Lastly, the Gulf could slide into escalating instability marked by US withdrawal,

the decline of the Saudi royal family, and potential economic or political crises in Iran,

potentially leading to sectarian tensions, terrorism, and domestic unrest.

Given the substantial uncertainty surrounding the Gulf's geopolitical future, India,

which relies heavily on the region for fuel, remittances, and trade, must adopt a

proactive policy stance. India should bolster its understanding and analytical

capabilities related to the Gulf, increase diplomatic engagement with regional and

global stakeholders, promote transparency in its activities, and explore the possibility

of establishing multilateral forums to help maintain stability. Additionally, India

should seek to diversify its energy sources from the Gulf and invest in infrastructure

that allows for diversified supply routes, all while prioritizing commercial

considerations and fostering multilateral collaborations. (“Pramit Pal Chaudhuri”)

Political Islam and Turmoil in West Asia

Political Islam, spanning from Nigeria to the Philippines and prevalent in Islamic

nations, is the subject of this chapter, focusing on its emergence in West Asia,

encompassing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Israel, Turkey,

and Iran. Due to their influence on Iraq, Syria, and Gaza, these regions are included.

With West Asia being vital to India, understanding political Islam's current dynamics

is crucial for crafting an effective policy response. This entails defining political Islam,
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examining its roots in the 21st century, and deciphering the objectives of its

proponents. This movement is more political and economic than religious, with no

singular, agreed-upon form.

A succinct exploration of the region's wars and violence provides a backdrop to

extremist political Islam. In addition to the four Arab-Israeli conflicts, there have been

numerous skirmishes and confrontations between Israelis and Arabs over the past 47

years following the occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, and the Golan Heights. (Aziz)

Israel, thanks to its consistent military superiority, has typically emerged victorious in

military engagements. However, it has been unable to fully suppress Palestinian

resistance, which has erupted into protracted uprisings (Intifadas) in 1987 and 2000,

causing substantial Palestinian casualties. Israel's 1982 attack on Beirut and

subsequent occupation of South Lebanon gave rise to the Hezbollah resistance

movement, which persistently harassed Israeli forces until their withdrawal in 2000.

Another escalation occurred in 2006, resulting in significant casualties.

Since its withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Israel has conducted five military operations

against Hamas, responding to provocations and causing many Palestinian casualties,

including civilians. In addition to Arab-Israeli conflicts, the region has witnessed other

wars and conflicts, such as the Yemeni civil war (1962-1970), King Hussein of

Jordan's crushing of Palestinians in 1970, and Hafez al-Assad's brutal suppression in

Hama in 1982.

The Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) was among the 20th century's deadliest conflicts, with

substantial casualties and economic losses. Afghanistan has experienced relentless

conflict and instability since 1979, resulting in millions of deaths and ongoing chaos.
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Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait triggered a war and subsequent economic

sanctions that inflicted severe suffering on Iraq.

The Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) and the Algerian Civil War (1991-2002) caused

significant casualties and enduring instability. In 2003, the US invaded Iraq, leading to

further casualties and ongoing turmoil.

Post the 9/11 attacks, the US initiated military actions in Afghanistan, resulting in

casualties and persistent violence. West Asia has witnessed more wars and conflicts

since World War II than any other region, displacing countless people and fostering

violence and extremism.

Extremist political Islam has emerged in response to these multifaceted political,

economic, and social factors. It is critical to comprehend that extremism and violence

are not solely rooted in religious motivations but also deeply intertwined with political

and economic frustrations.

Efforts to address extremism must grapple with these underlying factors and devise

effective strategies to tackle this intricate challenge. (Aziz)

Role of Militaries in the West Asian Region and Engagement Options

for India

The "Arab Spring," a wave of uprisings that emerged in late 2010 across the Arab

world against oppressive regimes, sought political freedom, economic prosperity, and

citizen participation. Starting in Tunisia and spreading to Egypt, Libya, and beyond,
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these protests led to the removal of leaders like Ben Ali and Mubarak. Responses from

armed forces varied, with some backing protesters (Tunisia, Egypt) and others

supporting regimes (Bahrain, Syria). Yemen and Libya experienced internal divisions,

resulting in regime changes. Gulf states managed protests through suppression or

economic incentives. The chapter argues that the military's role in these events stems

from a historical connection in the region. As India has substantial interests in West

Asia, understanding this role is essential for addressing future security challenges. The

chapter explores civil-military relations and their impact, highlighting the enduring

dominance of armed forces across different regimes (“Rajeev Agarwal | Manohar

Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses”)

During the Arab Spring, the involvement of each nation's military became a decisive

factor in the outcomes of the protests. In Tunisia and Egypt, the military sided with

protesters, leading to the swift removal of dictators. Conversely, Syria and Bahrain

demonstrated the destructive potential of military force when used to suppress the

population. Libya and Yemen witnessed military divisions, resulting in civil wars and

external interventions. These events offer insights into how the military could shape

the future of these nations, impacting India's regional engagement. India seeks to

strengthen its military ties through various strategies, aiming to play a constructive

role in regional security and stability.

Indian Migrants in West Asia

Indian migrants have a significant presence in West Asia, comprising countries like

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. These
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nations host a large expatriate workforce, with Indians forming a substantial portion.

The Indian diaspora in West Asia primarily consists of skilled and unskilled laborers,

professionals, and businesspeople seeking employment opportunities and better

livelihoods.

The Indian migrants play a vital role in the economic development of these countries

by contributing to various sectors such as construction, healthcare, information

technology, and hospitality. Remittances from Indian expatriates are a crucial source

of income for their families back home, supporting India's economy.

However, Indian migrants in West Asia also face challenges, including issues related

to labor rights, living conditions, and legal protections. Many work under the Kafala

system, which ties their legal status to their employers, potentially making them

vulnerable to exploitation.

Research on Indian migrants in West Asia is essential to understand their living and

working conditions, rights, and contributions to both host and home countries. It helps

policymakers formulate strategies to protect their interests and enhance their well-

being while facilitating the positive impact of remittances on India's economy. (Kohli)

Role of External Powers in West Asia Region and Engagement

Options for India

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The Arab Spring has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of West Asia, drawing global

and regional powers into a complex web of competition and cooperation. Russia,

China, and the United States are key players in this evolving scenario.

China's primary West Asian interest is securing energy resources for its growing

economy. It has cultivated relationships across the region while avoiding political

interference. China's expanding economic presence in West Asia, driven by energy

needs and trade, is altering the region's dynamics.

Russia, on the other hand, balances cooperation with Western nations and rivalry,

especially regarding Syria and Ukraine. It has a limited economic footprint but

maintains a military presence in Syria, challenging US influence.

The United States, though shifting focus to East Asia, remains deeply engaged in West

Asia due to energy interests and counter-terrorism efforts. It faces complex challenges,

including Syria, where it navigates alliances with regional actors while securing

energy resources.

In summary, the Arab Spring's aftermath has spurred a recalibration of power

dynamics in West Asia, with China, Russia, and the United States adapting their

strategies to safeguard their interests and navigate the region's changing landscape.

(Widmark)

Saudi Arabia in the Region and India- Saudi Arabia Relations

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Saudi Arabia's importance in the West Asian region is multifaceted. It is a significant

player due to its vast wealth generated from oil revenues and its status as the custodian

of Islam's two holiest sites, positioning it as a leader in the Muslim world. This blend

of economic power and religious influence grants Saudi Arabia a prominent role. Its

substantial territory, population, and expanding military capability add to its regional

standing. In terms of foreign policy, Saudi Arabia wields considerable sway over

neighboring Gulf states, engages actively in the Israel-Palestine peace process, and

nurtures relationships with global powers like the USA, Russia, China, and the EU. Its

special relationship with the United States further solidifies its regional dominance.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia plays a vital role in regional bodies such as the Gulf

Cooperation Council (GCC), Arab League, and Organization of Islamic Cooperation

(OIC), using them to exert influence and pursue foreign policy objectives. Saudi

Arabia's response to the Arab Spring demonstrated its ability to shape events in

neighboring countries, adapting its stance as protests spread. Its complex relationship

with Iran, characterized by rivalry and regional power struggles, profoundly impacts

West Asian dynamics. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's interventions in Bahrain and

Yemen underscore its efforts to maintain stability in the region. In conclusion, Saudi

Arabia's multifaceted influence in West Asia is driven by economic, religious,

political, and military factors, shaping the region's geopolitical landscape.

Understanding these dynamics is essential for comprehending the complexities of the

Middle East. (Pradhan)

Changing Internal Dynamics in Iraq and its Implications for India

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In the realm of India's engagement with Iraq, a multifaceted strategy is imperative to

address both immediate and long-term concerns. In the short term, India must

prioritize safeguarding its energy trade partnership with Iraq, particularly amid

regional instability, as a consistent oil supply is paramount for India's energy security.

Simultaneously, tackling the trade imbalance is a long-term objective. India should

explore diversification into sectors like engineering, textiles, and healthcare, but

exercise prudence in committing to extended contracts due to regional uncertainties.

Moreover, identifying specific areas of cooperation, such as medical tourism and

training, necessitates careful assessment and planning, considering Iraq's challenging

conditions. In summary, India's approach should involve targeted sectoral focus and

thoughtful planning to navigate current challenges while fostering a sustainable long-

term relationship with Iraq. (Rizvi)

Turkey and india

India and Turkey have historically maintained a distant and occasionally antagonistic

relationship, primarily due to Turkey's military alignment with Pakistan. Nevertheless,

the two nations have undergone substantial transformations. Turkey now boasts a

political landscape that diverges from its military's perspective, and both countries

have experienced significant economic reforms, earning them recognition as

"emerging economies" because of their rapid GDP growth, the emergence of new

corporations, and increased foreign economic engagement. Turkey's significance

stems from its strategic geographical location, serving as a crossroads between various
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global regions. Despite past differences, the changing global dynamics and economic

potential present opportunities for improved relations, though some concerns linger,

including Turkey's residual ties with Pakistan and its regional role uncertainty.

(Chaudhuri)

Israel and India

Since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1992, India and Israel have developed a

robust partnership in defense, security, and various economic sectors. Despite past

concerns about Israel's treatment of Palestinians and its relations with Arab neighbors,

India's reservations have lessened over time. However, opposition from liberal-left

intellectuals and a sensitive Muslim minority regarding Israel's policies persists.

Notably, India's approach to Israel varies depending on the ruling political party, with

state visits primarily occurring during BJP rule. Nevertheless, both major Indian

parties agree on preserving the substantive defense and security cooperation. The

relationship has evolved through three stages: pre-1992, normalization from 1992 to

2000, and deepening security ties from 2000 to the present. Key factors contributing to

this shift include India's need for alternative arms suppliers post-Soviet collapse and

the pursuit of a closer relationship with the United States. Domestic factors, such as

changing political dynamics and economic reforms, also played a role. Today, India

and Israel have a solid foundation built on security cooperation, economic

partnerships, and political acceptance, with policy recommendations focusing on

further strengthening these ties. (Chaudhuri)

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Transition in the Maghreb and Mashreq

The 2011 popular uprisings, originating in the Maghreb and Mashreq regions, have

had a profound and enduring impact from the Gulf to North Africa and beyond.

Despite India's limited economic engagement with these nations, it's crucial to

acknowledge the deep-seated political, economic, social, and cultural ties that bind

them. Often overshadowed by a focus on the Gulf States and Iran, these connections

are reinforced by shared culture, religion, language, and modern media. As stability in

the Gulf remains vital for India, there is a compelling case to support and seek stability

across the broader region. This article offers an overview of the revolutions and

transitions in these countries, highlighting some common trends. Algeria managed to

maintain stability through economic concessions and resistance to foreign

intervention, while Morocco smoothly transitioned under its monarchy. Tunisia

successfully embraced democracy despite occasional extremist attacks. Egypt

experienced political upheaval, transitioning from military-backed regimes to a more

democratic framework while facing ongoing security challenges. Libya descended into

chaos with civil war, leading to instability and terrorism. Syria's conflict escalated,

drawing regional and international actors into a complex situation. Lebanon and

Jordan grappled with challenges due to regional unrest, impacting their delicate

sectarian balances. India should consider forging issue-specific partnerships,

strengthening political engagements, and boosting economic relationships with these

nations to promote stability, exert influence, and tap into economic opportunities

across the wider WANA and Gulf regions (Ghose)

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Recommendations

The evolving geopolitical landscape in West Asia presents complex challenges and

opportunities for Indian policymakers. Three years after the "Arab Spring" began, the

region continues to struggle in establishing stable political orders. The transition from

authoritarian regimes to democracy has been tumultuous, with ongoing crises in Syria

and Iraq adding to the complexities. The expanding presence of extremist groups in

the region, exacerbated by sectarian divisions, poses significant security concerns for

both West Asia and India.

India's substantial interests in the region necessitate close monitoring of developments.

The primary challenge is to navigate political and economic relationships with

regional and global players skillfully. India's heavy reliance on Gulf oil imports further

underscores the importance of regional stability.

To address these challenges and opportunities, several recommendations have been

proposed. These include adopting a clear "Look West Policy" to strengthen ties with

Gulf nations, appointing a special envoy for West Asia, reinforcing bilateral

relationships with key actors like Iran, Iraq, and GCC countries, and pursuing a

balanced and principled foreign policy. India is encouraged to engage in regional

security discussions and participate in bilateral and multilateral dialogues with global

powers regarding West Asia and North Africa.

Specific recommendations also target individual countries in the region, such as

enhancing cooperation with Saudi Arabia, deepening counter-terrorism collaboration

with Iraq, and expanding relations with Israel while maintaining support for
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Palestinian statehood. Additionally, India is advised to expedite its involvement in the

Chabahar port project in Iran, diversify trade, and explore economic opportunities.

Involving Iran in regional security dialogues and exploring trilateral cooperation

between India, Iran, and Oman are suggested, along with cultivating alliances within

the Maghreb-Mashreq region to collectively address regional challenges. (Roy)

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