Name - Student ID:
1. Lê Bảo Quyên - BAFNIU21555
2. Nguyễn Minh Anh - BAFNIU21394
3. Mai Vũ Quỳnh Anh - BAFNIU21398
4. Phạm Minh Dũng - BAFNIU21422
1. Questions 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 2.10 (page 32-33)
2. The attached question
Answer:
Let spinner A be of (9,5,1); B (3,8,4 ); C (7,6,2)
P(A player wins )= P(Player A chooses A and Wins) + P (Player A chooses B and
Wins)+ P(Player A chooses C and Wins)
1
= P(A choses A, B choses B, A wins) +P( A choses A, B choses C, A wins +P( A choses B, B
choses A, A wins) +P(A choses B, B choses C, A wins +P(A choses C, B choses A, A wins) +
P(A choses C, B choses B, A wins)
- Denoted A: number of husband earning less than $25,000
B: number of wife earning more than $25,000
̅: number of husband earning more than $25,000
A
̅: number of wife earning less than $25,000
B
2
(a) the probability that the husband earns less than $25,000;
212 + 36 248
𝑃 (𝐴 ) = = = = 0.496
500 500
(b) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that the husband
earns more than this amount;
54 54
̅) =
𝑃(𝐵|A = = 0.214
198 + 54 252
(c) the conditional probability that the wife earns more than $25,000 given that the husband
earns less than this amount?
36 36
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = = = 0.145
212 + 36 248
Exercise 2.7: The time it takes to develop a photographic print is a random variable
with mean 18 seconds and standard deviation I second. Approximate the probability that the
total amount of time that it takes to process 100 prints is
(a)more than 1,710 seconds;
(b)between 1.690 and 1,710 seconds.
Solution
𝜇=18
𝜎 =1
n=100
a) the probability that the total amount of time that it takes to process 100 prints is which
1710
more than 1,710 seconds is = 17.1
100
̅> 17.1)
=> P(X
̅ −𝜇X
X ̅ ̅ −𝜇X
X ̅ 17.1−18
Z= = 𝜎 = = -9
𝜎X
̅ ⁄√𝑛 1/100
̅ >17.1) = P(Z > -9.00)
P(X
= 1- P(Z < -9.00)
= 1- 0 ( since -9 < -3.49 so the answer is 0)
=1
b) the probability that the total amount of time that it takes to process 100 prints is which
1690 1710
between 1.690 and 1,710 seconds is ( , ) = (16.9, 17.1)
100 100
=> P(16.9 < X < 17.1)
3
𝜇=18
𝜎 =1
n=100
̅ −𝜇X
X ̅ ̅ −𝜇X
X ̅
Z= =𝜎
𝜎X
̅ ⁄√𝑛
16.9−18
=> 𝑍1 = = -11
1/√100
17.1−18
=> 𝑍2 = = -9
1/√100
P(Z<-9): since-9 is below -3.49, the answer is 0
P(Z <-11): since-11 is below -3.49, the answer is 0
P(16.9 < X < 17.1) = P(-11.00 < Z < -9.00)
= P(Z < -9.00) - P(Z < -11.00)
= 0-0=0
Question 2.8: Frequent fliers of a certain airline fly a random number of miles each
year,having mean and standard deviation of 25,000 and 12,000 miles,[Link] 30 such
people are randomly chosen,approximate the probability that the average of their mileages for
this year will
(a)exceed 25,000;
(b)be between 23,000 and 27.000.
Solution
m=25,000
𝜎= 12000
(X−mean)
Z score =
std error
std deviation 12000
std error = = = 2190.89
𝑛1/2 301/2
a) The probability that the average of their mileages for this year will exceed 25,000
P(X>25000) = 1 - P(X<25000)
(25000 − 25000)
= 1 - P(Z<( )
2190.89
=1 - P(Z<0)
=1 - 0.5 = 0.5
b) The probability that the average of their mileages for this year will be between
23,000 and 27,000
4
(23000 − 25000) (27000 − 25000)
P(23000<X<27000) = P[( ) < Z <( )]
2190.89 2190.89
= P(0.9129) - P(-0.9129)
= 0.8193 - 0.1807
= 0.6387
Exercise 2.9: A model for the movement of a stock supposes that, if the present price of
the stock is s, then – after one time period – it will either be us with probability p or ds with
probability 1 − p. Assuming that successive movements are independent, approximate the
probability that the stock’s price will be up at least 30% after the next 1,000 time periods if u =
1.012, d = .990, and p = .52.
Answer
P(𝑆1000 ≥ 1.30𝑆0 )
𝑆1000
P( > 1.30)
𝑆0
𝑆1000 𝑆999 𝑆998 𝑆1
P( × × × > 1.3)
𝑆0 𝑆999 𝑆998 𝑆1
𝑆1000 𝑆999 𝑆1
P( × ×…× > 1.3)
𝑆999 𝑆998 𝑆0
𝑆1000 𝑆999 𝑆
P(log[ × × … × 1 ] ≥ 𝑙𝑛1.3)
𝑆999 𝑆998 𝑆0
𝑆𝑖
Define 𝑥𝑖 =
𝑆𝑖 −1
u; w | probability P
=> 𝑥𝑖 {
d; w | probability 1 − P
<=>P(log[𝑋1000 × 𝑋999 × … × 𝑋1 ] ≥ 𝑙𝑛1.3)
𝑙𝑛 𝑢 ; w | probability P
ln𝑥𝑖 {
𝑙𝑛𝑑 ; 𝑤| probability 1 − P
E[ln𝑥𝑖 ] = ln 𝑢 × P + ln 𝑑 × (1 − 𝑃) =1.378 × 10−3
Var[ln𝑥𝑖 ] = (ln 𝑢)2 × 𝑃 + (ln 𝑑)2 × (1 − P) − (1.378 × 10−3 )2
σ = √1.206 × 10−4 = 0.01098
5
Denote 𝛽 = sum of 𝑋1 → 𝑋1000
𝛽1000 ~ N(1000𝜇, √1000 𝜎)
P(𝛽1000 >ln1.3)
𝑙𝑛1.3−1000×1.378×10−3
P(𝑍 > )
√1000 ×0.01098
P( Z > -3.21307)
R( -3.21307) = 99.93%
Exercise 2.10 In each time period, a certain stock either goes down 1 with probability
.39, remains the same with probability .20, or goes up 1 with probability .41. Assuming that the
changes in successive time pe-riods are independent, approximate the probability that, after 700
time periods, the stock will be up more than 10 from where it started.
Answer:
x P(x) x.P(x) x .P(x)
2
-1 0,39 -0,39 0,39
0 0,2 0 0
1 0,41 0,41 0,41
Total 1 0,02 0,8
Variance = E(x2) – E2(x)
Variance = 0.8 – (0.02) = 0.7996
2
Since standard deviation = (variance)1/2
Standard deviation = (0.7996)1/2 =0.8942
It is given that the stock will be more than 10 from where it started.
The time period is 700.
P(Z > -0.16907) =1– P(Z < -0.16907) = 1– 0.43287= 0.5672
=>Thus, the required probability is 0.5672