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MATH – 361
Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Lecture No. 12

Introduction to Probability

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 Probability
Definition
➢ Probability is a number that reflects a chance or likelihood that
a particular event will occur.

➢ Probability always has a value from 0 and 1.

➢ 0 indicates that there is no chance that event will occur (Null

Event).

➢ 1 indicates that an event is certain to occur (Sure Event).

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 Probability

Important Terms
➢ Random experiment ➢ Equally likely events
➢ Sample space ➢ Mutually Exclusive Events
➢ Event ➢ Independent Events

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 Probability : Random Experiment

➢ It is a well-defined operation or procedure which produces

different results, even though it is repeated a large number of
times.

➢ Outcome: The possible results of an experiment are called

Outcomes.
➢ Example : For a dice rolled, there are six possible outcomes.

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 Probability : Random Experiment

Counting Techniques

➢ For experiments with large number of outcomes, the following

methods are used to count the possible number of results:

➢ Permutations
➢ Combinations

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Probability : Counting Techniques

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Permutation – Combination

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 Probability : Important Terms

➢ Sample Space - A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is

called a sample space and is denoted by S

➢ Sample Points - The elements of sample space are called sample

points. The number of sample points in sample space is denoted by
n(S)

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 Probability : Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all possible outcomes
Example
Experiment Sample Space Sample Points

1. A coin is tossed S = {Head, Tail} n(S) = 2

2. Two coins are tossed S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} n(S) = 4
3. Two dice are tossed S = { (1,1),(1,2),….,(6,6)}, n(S) = 36
4. A coin and a dice are tossed S = { (H,1),.,(H,6), (T,1),.,(T,6}, n(S) = 12

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 Probability : Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all possible outcomes
Example
Experiment Sample Space Sample Points

1. A coin is tossed S = {Head, Tail} n(S) = 2

2. Two coins are tossed S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} n(S) = 4
3. Two dice are tossed S = { (1,1),(1,2),….,(6,6)}, n(S) = 36
4. A coin and a dice are tossed S = { (H,1),.,(H,6), (T,1),.,(T,6}, n(S) = 12

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 Probability : Important Terms
Event
A subset of sample space is called an event and is denoted by a
capital English alphabet

Types of events
➢ Mutually Exclusive Events
➢ Overlapping Events
➢ Equally Likely Events
➢ Independent Events
➢ Dependent Events

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 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events A and B of a single experiment are said to be mutually

exclusive or disjoint if and only if they can not both occur at the same
time i.e. they have no points in common

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 Mutually Exclusive Events : Examples

➢ When we toss a coin, we get either a head or a tail, but both can not
occur at the same time.
The two events head and tail are therefore mutually exclusive.

➢ When a dice is rolled, the events ‘even number’ and ‘odd number’
are mutually exclusive as we can get either an even number or an
odd number in one throw, not both at the same time.

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 Not Mutually Exclusive Events/
Overlapping Events
➢ If the two events can occur at the same time, they are not
mutually exclusive. Such events do have some common points.
Example If we draw a card from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards,
Event A: card drawn is a king
Event B: card drawn is a diamond
it can be both a king and a diamond.
Therefore, kings and diamonds are not mutually exclusive events.
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Equally Likely Events

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 Probability

Mathematical Definition: Let S be the sample space and A is any

event. Then the probability of event A is

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 Probability
Example 1
If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, find the
probability that
(i) the card is a red card (ii) the card is a 10
Solution
The total number of possible outcomes are 13+13+13+13 = 52
Let A represent the event that the card drawn is a red card
Number of outcomes favorable to the event A is 26

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Probability : Example

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 Probability : Example

Part – II

➢ Let B denote the event that the card drawn is a 10

➢ Then the number of outcomes favorable to B is 4 as there are

four 10’s in a deck of cards

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 Probability
Example 2
A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that at least one
head appears?
Solution
The sample space for this experiment is
S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Total number of sample points = 8
i.e. n(S) = 8
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 Probability : Example

Let A denote the event that at least one head appears

Then A = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH}

Implies n(A) = 7

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Probability

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 Laws of Probability

1. Addition Law

(a) Mutually Exclusive Events

(b) Not Mutually Exclusive Events

2. Multiplication law

(a) Independent Events

(b) Dependent Events

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 Laws of Probability

Addition law

(a) For Not Mutually Exclusive Events

P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)

(b) For Mutually Exclusive Events

P( Aor B) = P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B)

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Addition Law

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Addition Law

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Addition Law

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Addition Law

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 Addition Rule
S A B
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of 2,4,6,8,10 1,3,5,7,9
first five even and odd numbers respectively as
shown. Find the probability of getting A or B
form a random pick of numbers 11,12,13,14,15

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 Addition Rule
Example : Suppose there are two sets A & B of S A B
2,4,6,8 1,3 ,5 11,13
first 10 positive integers and odd numbers 10 7,9 15,17
respectively as shown. Find the probability of 19
getting A or B form a random pick of numbers
12,14,16,18,20

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Questions to Practice

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 Laws of Probability
Multiplication law

(a) For Dependent Events ( Conditional )

P ( A  B ) = P ( A).P ( B / A)
= P ( B ).P ( A / B )
(b) For Independent Events

P( Aand B) = P( A  B) = P( A).P( B)

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 Multiplication Law

Example:
Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find the
probability that they are both aces if the first card is

(i) replaced (ii) not replaced before the 2nd attempt

Solution: Let A denotes the event “ace on the first draw” and B denotes the
event “ace on the second draw”

(i) In case of replacement, event A & B are independent

P(both cards are aces) = P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B) = 4/52.4/52 = 1/169

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 Multiplication Law

Example:
Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards Find the
probability that they are both aces if the first card is

(i) replaced (ii) not replaced before the 2nd attempt

Solution:

(ii) In case of not replaced, event A & B are dependent

P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B/A) = 4/52.3/51 = 1/221

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Conditional Probability

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Conditional Probability

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 Conditional Probability

Example: Two coins are tossed. What is the

conditional probability the two heads result, given
that there is at least one head?

Solution: The sample space S for this experiment is

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let A represent the event that two heads appear, and
B, the event that there is at least one head

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Conditional Probability

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Conditional Probability

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 Practice Problem -1

A perfect cubical die is thrown. Find the probability of getting

(i) A six
(ii) An odd number
(iii) A four or six on the upper side of the die

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 Practice Problem -2

A bag contains 4 red and 6 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from
the bag. What is the probability that the ball is red?

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Practice Problem -3

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