Energy Reports 7 (2021) 3125–3136

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Review article

Renewable energy in Central Asia: An overview of potentials,

deployment, outlook, and barriers
∗
M. Laldjebaev a , , R. Isaev b , A. Saukhimov c
a
School of Arts and Sciences, University of Central Asia, 155 Qimatsho Imatshoev Street, Khorog, 736000, Tajikistan
b
Renewable Energy Sources Department, Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I. Razzakov, 60 Mir Avenue, Bishkek, 720044, Kyrgyzstan
c
Almaty University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications, Kazakhstan, 126/1 Baytursynuli Street, Almaty, 050013, Kazakhstan

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper provides a comprehensive yet concise overview of the potential, deployment, outlook, and
Received 27 February 2021 barriers to renewable energy including small-scale hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy
Received in revised form 24 April 2021 for the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Accepted 13 May 2021
Small-scale hydropower potential estimates range from 275 MW to 30,000 MW, solar PV from 195,000
Available online 3 June 2021
MW to 3,760,000 MW, wind from 1500 MW to 354,000 MW, geothermal from 2 MW to 54,000
Keywords: MW, and bioenergy from 200 MW to 800 MW. However, deployment is minuscule: 5–225 MW in
Hydropower small-scale hydropower across five countries, whereas only Kazakhstan deployed large-scale solar PV
Solar (>800 MW) and wind (>300 MW). Though there are strategies and programs to increase deployment,
Wind with Kazakhstan in the lead, other countries lag behind in their efforts. A number of barriers hinder
Geothermal the development of renewable energy in the region, including issues with regulatory framework,
Bioenergy infrastructure, finances, expertise, awareness and support, and data and information. Because these
Central Asia
obstacles are interrelated, a cross-sector and integrated approach is necessary to overcome them.
Renewable energy can help Central Asian countries satisfy a growing energy demand and avoid the
negative environmental impacts of using fossil fuels.
© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
([Link]

Contents

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3126
2. Renewable energy potential.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3126
2.1. Small-scale hydropower.................................................................................................................................................................................... 3126
2.2. Solar..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3127
2.3. Wind.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3128
2.4. Geothermal ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3128
2.5. Bioenergy ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3128
3. Renewable energy deployment .................................................................................................................................................................................... 3128
3.1. Small-scale hydropower.................................................................................................................................................................................... 3129
3.2. Solar..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3129
3.3. Wind.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3130
3.4. Bioenergy ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3130
4. Renewable energy outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 3130
4.1. Kazakhstan.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3130
4.2. Kyrgyzstan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3131
4.3. Tajikistan............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3131
4.4. Turkmenistan...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3131
4.5. Uzbekistan .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3132
5. Barriers to renewable energy development ................................................................................................................................................................ 3132
6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3134
CRediT authorship contribution statement ................................................................................................................................................................. 3134

∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [Link]@[Link] (M. Laldjebaev), ruslan.isaev81@[Link] (R. Isaev), [Link]@[Link] (A. Saukhimov).

[Link]
2352-4847/© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ([Link]
M. Laldjebaev, R. Isaev and A. Saukhimov Energy Reports 7 (2021) 3125–3136

Declaration of competing interest................................................................................................................................................................................ 3134

References ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3134

In Europe, which is on the forefront of renewable energy, studies

List of abbreviations including units and nomenclature have focused on the state of energy resources and progress to-
◦
C Degree Celsius wards achieving renewable energy goals (Angheluta et al., 2019),
ADB Asian Development Bank and the effectiveness of policy instruments (Bersalli et al., 2020).
Studies in Latin America have explored the role of renewable
CADGAT Central Asia Data Gathering and Analy-
energy in increasing energy security and regional integration
sis Team
(Viviescas et al., 2019) as well as policy instruments (Bersalli
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and
et al., 2020). In Northeast, South, and Southeast Asia, studies
Development
have analyzed renewable energy utilization, development, and
FSC Financial Settlement Center for Renew- policy (Chen et al., 2014; Erdiwansyah et al., 2019; Malahayati,
able Energy 2020; Quirapas et al., 2015), and regional trade integration, en-
Gcal Gigacalorie ergy cooperation and sharing opportunities (Ahmed et al., 2016;
GW Gigawatt Murshed, 2021; Xiangchengzhen and Yilmaz, 2020).
GWh Gigawatt hour In Central Asia, Shadrina (2020) provides an extensive
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency overview of renewable energy, noting that scholarly work on
kW Kilowatt renewable energy is focused on one-country analysis, with Kaza-
kW/m2 Kilowatt per square meter khstan being examined more comprehensively, while studies on
kWh Kilowatt hour Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan concentrate mostly on large-scale hy-
m2 Square meter dropower and water-energy nexus. There has been a growing in-
terest in renewables in Uzbekistan, but research on Turkmenistan
m3 Cubic meter
is limited. Although the review of renewable energy by Shadrina
m3 /s Cubic meters per second
(2020) covers all five countries in Central Asia and is quite com-
MJ/m2 Megajoule per square meter prehensive, it mainly examines deployment of renewables and
MW Megawatt readiness of energy systems for renewable energy diffusion, with
PJ Petajoule the exclusion of hydropower. Our paper expands on previous
PV Photovoltaic studies by providing an overview of the potential, deployment,
RE Renewable energy outlook, and barriers to renewable energy, including small-scale
TJ Terajoule hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy, for the five
TWh Terawatt hour Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
USD United States dollar Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Therefore, the paper is organized
in the same sequence, from potential to barriers and from small-
scale hydropower to bioenergy, while presenting countries in
alphabetical order. This overview attempts to be comprehensive
but also concise, in order to serve scholars as well as practitioners
1. Introduction and policymakers to obtain information on renewables efficiently,
while consulting the references for further details.
Renewable energy sources are defined as those ‘‘derived from
natural processes’’ and ‘‘replenished at a faster rate than they 2. Renewable energy potential
are consumed’’, including ‘‘all forms of energy produced from
renewable sources in a sustainable manner’’, such as ‘‘bioenergy, The potential for renewable energy, as shown in Table 1, is
geo-thermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, solar energy and quite substantial in the Central Asian region. Small-scale hy-
wind energy’’ (International Energy Agency (IEA), and World Bank dropower potential ranges from 275 MW (megawatts) to 30,000
Group, 2014). Notably, small-scale hydropower plants are con- MW, solar PV (photovoltaic) from 195,000 MW to 3,760,000 MW,
sidered renewables, whereas categorization of large-scale hy- wind from 1500 MW to 354,000 MW, geothermal from 2 MW to
dropower plants as such is debatable (Shadrina, 2020). Small- 54,000 MW (Botpaev et al., 2011; Doukas et al., 2012; Jorde et al.,
scale hydropower plants are advantageous in that they ‘‘make it 2009; Jorde and Biegert, 2009a), and bioenergy1 from 200 MW to
possible to use the potential of small rivers and watercourses; 800 MW (UNDP, 2014; UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016).2 Details for each
place less load on the river ecosystem; . . . [are built] without energy source and country are discussed below.
significant flooding of land and without completely damming up
the river; promote the development of local industry; . . . [help 2.1. Small-scale hydropower
address] social problems; require less initial major spending,
[and] operational expenses’’ (Baum, 2008, pp. 108–109). According to the World Small Hydropower Report 2016
Globally, renewable energy is pursued with a dual objective of (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016), a variety of definitions of small-scale
meeting increasing energy demand and decarbonizing the energy hydropower are employed in Central Asia: Kazakhstan at 35
supply (Li et al., 2020). Numerous studies are devoted to this sub- MW, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at 30 MW, and Uzbekistan at
ject, among which country-level analyses are prevalent, whereas
region-level reviews are fewer in number and further delimited
1 The term bioenergy is used here to include energy derived from biological
in terms of their scope. For example, regional studies in Africa
sources (organic material) in solid (biomass), liquid (biofuels), and gaseous
have looked at renewable energy potential, deployment status, (biogas) form that is available and exploited in Central Asia.
determinants (Brunet et al., 2018; Bugaje, 2006; da Silva et al., 2 It should be noted that estimation of potentials for each country presents a
2018), technology-user interactions (Amuzu-Sefordzi et al., 2018), consistency challenge because estimations vary by studies, while methodology
and development and policy (Aliyu et al., 2018; Ouedraogo, 2019). used in the estimation process is not always transparent (Gassner et al., 2017).

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Table 1
Renewable energy potentials in Central Asia.
Country Small-scale Solar PV Wind Geothermal Bioenergy
hydropower
(MW) (MW) (TWh/year) (MW) (TWh/year) (TWh/year) (MW)
Kazakhstan 4800 (≤35 MW) 3760,000 6684 354,000 11,388 54,000 300
2707 (≤10 MW)
Kyrgyzstan 900 (≤30 MW) 267,000 537 1500 256 171 200
275 (≤10 MW)
Tajikistan 30,000 (≤30 MW) 195,000 410 2000 146 45 300
Turkmenistan 1300 655,000 1484 10,000 1992 no data not significant
Uzbekistan 1180 (≤10 MW) 593,000 1195 1600 1685 2 800

Data sources: Author’s compilation based on (a) (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016) for small-scale hydropower; (b) (UNDP, 2014) for solar PV, wind and bioenergy in MW;
(c) (Eshchanov et al., 2019) for solar PV and wind in TWh/year; (d) (Jorde et al., 2009) for geothermal in Kazakhstan; (e) (Botpaev et al., 2011) for geothermal in
Kyrgyzstan; (f) (Doukas et al., 2012) for geothermal for Tajikistan; and (g) (Jorde and Biegert, 2009a) for geothermal in Uzbekistan. Note: MW = megawatts; TWh
= terawatt hours.

10 MW of installed capacity as the upper limit, whereas Turk- 2.2. Solar

menistan provides no definition. Tajikistan further distinguishes
mini (0.1–1 MW) and micro (<100 kilowatts (kW)) hydropower The highest solar potential is estimated for Kazakhstan with
stations. Karatayev and Clarke (2016) define small (1–10 MW) 3,760,000 MW of solar PV (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). An es-
and timate by the Central Asia Data Gathering and Analysis Team
medium-scale (10–50 MW) plants for Kazakhstan.3 (CADGAT) is 6684 TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). With 2200–
The Central Asian region is endowed with a sizeable potential 3000 h of sunlight per year, solar insolation equals 1200–1700
for small-scale hydropower (Table 1). In Kazakhstan, the esti- kilowatts per square meter (kW/m2 ) (Karatayev and Clarke, 2016)
mated potential is 4800 MW for plant capacity of up to 35 MW, or 1300–1800 kW/m2 (Asian Development Bank, 2014; Energy
and 2707 MW for less than 10 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). In Charter Secretariat, 2013a). Gross, technical and economic poten-
terms of annual generation, the overall potential of small-scale tials of solar energy are estimated at 1 billion GWh, 1 million
hydropower is estimated at 65 billion kWh (kilowatt hours), of GWh and 10 GWh respectively (Jorde et al., 2009). Another source
puts the overall annual generation potential at 3.9 – 5.4 billion
which 21 billion kWh is considered technically feasible and 7.5
kWh (Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013a).
billion kWh as economically feasible4 (Energy Charter Secretariat,
In Kyrgyzstan, the solar PV potential is 267,000 MW (UNIDO
2013a). In Kyrgyzstan, the potential is estimated at about 900
and ICSHP, 2016). With solar insolation of 1000–1700 kW/m2 (or
MW for plants up to 30 MW, and 275 MW for up to 10 MW
1500–1900 kW/m2 (ESMAP, 1997)), the potential for solar energy
(UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). For Kyrgyzstan, another source esti-
is estimated at 490 GWh/year for thermal and 22.5 GWh/year
mates the total hydropower potential of 172 rivers and water
for electric energy (Asian Development Bank, 2014; Stamaliev,
flows surveyed in the country with a flow rate of 1.5 to 5 m3 /s 2010; Umbriel Temiraliev, 2015). Other sources put the potential
(cubic meters per second) to exceed 80 billion kWh per year, at 16,726 PJ (petajoules) or 4,646,111 GWh (Botpaev et al., 2011)
while the technically feasible potential is estimated at 5–8 bil- or 537 TWh/year according to CADGAT database (Eshchanov et al.,
lion kWh per year (Isaev and Tolomushev, 2016). However, the 2019). Yet another source estimates the potential at 700,000
share of small-scale hydropower is unspecified. The other source GWh/year for electricity and about 2 billion Gcal (gigacalories)
attributes the 80 billion kWh/year generation potential to 252 per year for heat generation (Kiseleva et al., 2015).
rivers specifically for small-scale hydropower, which is likely an In Tajikistan, the solar PV potential is estimated at 195,000
overstatement (Baybagyshov and Degembaeva, 2019). Tajikistan MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). With solar radiance of 2100 to
boasts 30,000 MW of potential, the highest of all, for plants up 3170 h per year (Andreenkov et al., 2019), 280–330 sunny days
to 30 MW capacity (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). About 1300 MW is a year and solar radiation of 280–1120 MJ/m2 (megajoule per
estimated potential in Turkmenistan for small-scale hydropower square meter) (Doukas et al., 2012) or 0.9 – 8 kW/m2 (Jorde and
(though clear definition is lacking) (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). In Biegert, 2009b), solar potential is variously estimated at 25,000
Uzbekistan, the potential is estimated at 1180 MW for plants GWh/year (Doukas et al., 2012), 410,000 GWh/year (Asian Devel-
up to 10 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). Other sources estimate opment Bank, 2014) or 410 TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019).
Uzbekistan’s potential at 5931 GWh (gigawatt hours) per year Solar insolation is estimated at 1640–1690 kW/m2 (Obozov and
(Kochnakyan et al., 2013) and 8000 GWh/year (Jorde and Biegert, Loscutoff, 1998).
2009a). With 80% of the country covered by the Karakum Desert and
sunlight duration ranging between 2700–3150 h in some regions,
e.g. Kuli, Gasan and Ashgabat, the solar potential is substantial
3 Given this variety and that not all reports and studies clearly state the in Turkmenistan (Shadrina, 2019). The potential for solar PV is
definition of small-scale hydropower in Central Asia, the numbers discussed in estimated at 655,000 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016) or 1484
this paper should be interpreted with due caution, especially when aggregate
TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). On average there are 2925 h
comparisons among countries are made.
4 ‘‘Gross theoretical hydropower potential is defined as the annual energy of sunshine and 1700–1900 kW/m2 of solar insolation (Asian De-
that is potentially available if all natural runoff at all locations can be harnessed velopment Bank, 2014). Another source estimates the insolation
down to sea level (or to the border of a region when calculating regional at 2000 kW/m2 and the energy potential at 100 billion tons of
potential) without any energy losses. Technical potential of hydropower is reference fuel per year, but does not specify which fuel is implied,
defined as the annual energy that could be developed under current technology, i.e. oil, gas, coal or other (Korpeyev, 2007).
regardless of economic and other restrictions. Economic potential of hydropower
is defined as the annual energy that can be developed at costs competitive with
In Uzbekistan, solar PV potential is 593,000 MW (UNIDO and
other energy sources’’ (Zhou et al., 2015). The same logic applies to other energy ICSHP, 2016). Solar potential is estimated from 525 and 760 GWh
sources. (Avezova et al., 2017) to a whopping 2,508,000 GWh per year
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(Kochnakyan et al., 2013), 2,000,000 GWh (Kiseleva et al., 2015) sedimentary basins is estimated at 23,460–25,270 PJ/year (Jóhan-
and 1,195 TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). According to Jorde nesson et al., 2019). In Kyrgyzstan, the geothermal sources can
and Biegert (2009a), with 250 sunny days per year, gross potential potentially yield 615 PJ or 170,833 GWh (Botpaev et al., 2011).
is 593 million GWh and technically feasible potential is 2,000,000 While over 100 hydro mineral deposits (e.g. hot springs) are iden-
GWh per year. The Asian Development Bank (2014) estimates tified, geothermal sources are predominantly of low-temperature
solar insolation in Uzbekistan between 1800 kW/m2 and 2000 (up to 55–60 ◦ C), and the technical and economically feasible
kW/m2 per year. potentials are estimated at 170 and 22 GJ per year (Baybagyshov
and Degembaeva, 2019; Dikambaev, 2019). In Tajikistan, Norma-
2.3. Wind tov (2010) provides an extensive review of geothermal water
resources for over 200 mineral sources, discussing their phys-
iochemical composition and geographic locations, but not esti-
Kazakhstan holds the highest potential for wind power at
mating their energy potential. Another source indicates that the
354,000 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). An earlier report pro-
geothermal energy can potentially produce 45,000 GWh of power
vides very modest estimates of 1000–2000 MW of technically
annually (Doukas et al., 2012). While information is not available
feasible and 250 MW of economically feasible potential (Energy
for geothermal energy for Turkmenistan, in Uzbekistan, the gross
Charter Secretariat, 2013a). Wind power generation is estimated
potential of geothermal energy is estimated at 2000 GWh/year
at 2 billion GWh gross, 1.82 million GWh technical and 1710 (Jorde and Biegert, 2009a).
GWh economically feasible potential (Jorde et al., 2009). An-
other source puts the estimates at 1820 billion kWh, 3.3 – 6.6 2.5. Bioenergy
billion kWh, and 820 million kWh respectively (Energy Char-
ter Secretariat, 2013a). CADGAT estimates the potential at 11,388 In Kazakhstan, bioenergy potential is estimated at 300 MW
TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). These estimates appear ex- (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016) while electricity generation potential
tremely high. Another source puts the economic potential at from bioenergy is 35,000 GWh/year and heat generation potential
about 760 GW (Karatayev and Clarke, 2014). The Dzungarian is 44 million Gcal per year (Karatayev and Clarke, 2014). Another
Gates, Mangystau Region, and Karatau Region, and the Chu-Ili estimate is 2,328,920 GWh/year from conversion of timber waste,
Mountains are considered as the most prospective for wind en- straw of cereal crops, cattle waste and sewage (Jorde et al.,
ergy development (IRENA, 2013). For example, the Dzungarian 2009). With a large agricultural sector but only 10% of agricultural
Gates, where average wind velocities range from 7 to 9 meters residue utilized, there is a lot of untapped potential for bioenergy
per second (ESMAP, 1997), could provide about 1.3 trillion kWh (Shadrina, 2020). Agricultural waste has a potential capacity to
of electricity per year (Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013a) – again, produce up to 35 billion kWh of power and 44 million Gcal of
an extremely high estimate. heat (Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013a). In Kyrgyzstan, bioenergy
In Kyrgyzstan, wind power potential stands at 1500 MW potential is estimated at 200 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016),
(UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). Other sources estimate that wind 1300 GWh (Umbriel Temiraliev, 2015) or 1.6 billion m3 of biogas
(Ruslan Orozaliev, 2013). Other sources estimate the potential at
potential at 44.6 GWh (Stamaliev, 2010; Umbriel Temiraliev,
53 PJ or 14,722 GWh (Botpaev et al., 2011; Stamaliev, 2010). The
2015), 7210 PJ or 2,002,778 GWh (Botpaev et al., 2011), and 256
agricultural biomass potential is estimated at 9732 TJ (terajoules)
TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Another source estimates the
per year (Baybagyshov and Degembaeva, 2019; Dikambaev, 2019)
potential at 4,920,000 tons of oil equivalent, and adds that in
and energy from forests and waste from wood processing indus-
areas with a wind speed of 8 meters per second, wind turbines try is 2292 TJ/year (Dikambaev, 2019). In Tajikistan, bioenergy
can operate at about 5.5 thousand hours per year with full power potential is estimated at 300 MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016) and
output (Obozov and Isaev, 2015). bioenergy sources can potentially produce about 2000 GWh/year
In Tajikistan, wind energy potential is estimated at 2000 MW of electricity (Doukas et al., 2012). For Turkmenistan, information
(UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016), 2 GW (UNDP, 2014) and 1 GW (Ka- about bioenergy potential is not available. The highest bioenergy
rimov et al., 2013), whereas annual generation potential is 146 potential is estimated in Uzbekistan at 800 MW (UNIDO and IC-
TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). SHP, 2016) with the annual potential of 1496 GWh (Kochnakyan
In Turkmenistan, wind power potential is estimated at 10,000 et al., 2013), and up to 6 billion m3 of biomethane (Avezova
MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). Another source estimates the et al., 2017). Owing to production of cotton, and availability of
gross potential for wind energy at 500,000 MW, of which 10,000 over 3 million tons of cotton stalks per year, the gross bioenergy
MW are technically feasible (Balliyev et al., 2009). The estimate potential is estimated at 27,000 GWh/year and its technical po-
by CADGAT is 1992 TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Kor- tential at 2000 GWh/year (from glucose and reducing sugars or
peyev (2007) estimates the wind potential at 5.5 billion tons of bioethanol) (Jorde and Biegert, 2009a). For biogas produced from
reference fuel — again, without specifying the type of fuel. livestock breeding and poultry farming, municipal sewage and
In Uzbekistan, the wind energy potential is estimated at 1600 other organic wastes, the technical potential is estimated at 8.9
MW (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). One estimate puts wind potential million m3 or 55.2 GWh per year (Jorde and Biegert, 2009a).
at over 1 GWh (Avezova et al., 2017), whereas another bumps it
3. Renewable energy deployment
up to 4652 GWh (Kochnakyan et al., 2013). Yet another source
estimates the potential at over 520 GW with 1.07 GWh in annual
While renewable energy potentials are sizeable, the scale
generation (Zakhidov and Kremkov, 2015). Still another source
of deployment has been marginal in Central Asia. Information
puts the potential at 100 MW capacity and 800 GWh of an- is very scant when it comes to installed capacities in small-
nual production (Jorde and Biegert, 2009a). CADGAT’s estimate, scale hydropower, solar and wind power, and bioenergy, while
however, is 1685 TWh/year (Eshchanov et al., 2019). it is unavailable for geothermal energy. This creates a challenge
to accurately evaluate the progress towards renewable energy
2.4. Geothermal uptake. Nonetheless, some progress is visible at the national
levels with assistance from international organizations. Kaza-
In Kazakhstan, the estimated gross potential for geothermal khstan and Uzbekistan have attempted utility-scale power gener-
energy is 54,000 TWh, technical potential is 54 TWh and eco- ation projects but Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are lagging behind,
nomic potential is 0.54 TWh per year (Jorde et al., 2009). Based on whereas no reliable information is available for Turkmenistan
the work of Boguslavsky et al. (1999), extractable energy from 13 (UNECE and REN21, 2017) (see Table 2).
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Table 2
Renewable energy deployment in Central Asia.
Country Small-scale hydropower Solar PV Wind Bioenergy
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
Kazakhstan 225 884 384 8
Kyrgyzstan 46 not significant not significant no data
Tajikistan 25 not significant not significant no data
Turkmenistan 5 not significant 5 no data
Uzbekistan 71 not significant not significant no data

Data sources: for small-scale hydropower in Kazakhstan from (Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020), Kyrgyzstan
from (Gassner et al., 2017), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016); for solar in
Kazakhstan from (Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020); for wind in Kazakhstan from (Ministry of Energy of
Kazakhstan, 2020), Turkmenistan from (Eshchanov et al., 2019); for bioenergy for Kazakhstan from (Ministry of
Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020).

3.1. Small-scale hydropower were indicated as being under construction, namely, ‘‘Shu’’ 100
MW, ‘‘Mistral Energy’’ 50 MW, ‘‘Sholakkorgan’’ 50 MW, ‘‘Baikonur
Installed capacity in small-scale hydropower comprises a tiny Solar’’ 50 MW, and ‘‘Zadariya’’ 14 MW (Shalabaev, 2019). While
fraction of the estimated potential in the Central Asian region. information is not available as to whether any of these plants
In Kazakhstan, current installed capacity is 224.6 MW (Ministry were put into operation, the installed capacity (883.6 MW) stated
of Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020). In 2018, for the first time in at the beginning of this paragraph is about twice the amount
the Central Asian region, auctions for energy development were (449.6 MW) indicated by Sospanova (2019), which suggests that
conducted in Kazakhstan (Dyatel, 2018; Nabiyeva, 2018) and, in the capacity increased considerably. In 2018–2019 energy devel-
2018 and 2019, allocated 89.08 MW for small-scale hydropower opment auctions, 356.5 MW of solar was successfully auctioned
(USAID and KOREM, 2020). At the end of 2019, with 222.2 MW (USAID and KOREM, 2020). Meanwhile, electricity produced at
installed capacity (Nogaev, 2020; QazaqSolar, 2020a; USAID and solar power plants amounted to 563.14 million kWh in 2019
KOREM, 2020), small-scale hydropower stations produced 1,105.3 (QazaqSolar, 2020a), and in the first quarter of 2020, production
million kWh of electricity (QazaqSolar, 2020a). In the first quarter was at 196.17 million (QazaqSolar, 2020b), which increased to
of 2020, the installed capacity was 224.6 MW and generated 603.41 million kWh in the first half of 2020 (Ministry of Energy
electricity amounted to 104.55 million kWh (QazaqSolar, 2020b). of Kazakhstan, 2020).
However, in the first half of 2020, the Ministry of Energy of In Kyrgyzstan, large scale solar is absent but household scale
Kazakhstan (2020) reported production of 331.39 million kWh. solar PV and thermal installations are used. CADGAT reports of
In Kyrgyzstan, 45.6 MW is installed (Gassner et al., 2017), com- 0.5 MW solar thermal collectors in ‘‘Bishkekteploenergo’’ utility
prising 1.1% of total hydropower capacity (Isaev and Omuraliev, in Bishkek city and 15 units of 300 W solar PV powered housing
2017). In Tajikistan, only 25 MW or less than 1% of the potential in remote Ken-Suu village of Djumgal district in Naryn oblast
is installed (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016), and power generated in (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Solar panels of 1.5 – 3 kW capacity were
2016 amounted to 27.9 million kWh (Statistical Agency under installed in 19 rural health posts across the country with UNIDO,
President of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2018). A program for UNDP and WHO support (UNECE, 2018). One source reports that
construction of 189 small-scale hydropower plants (with a total over 60,000 m2 thermal panels were installed in the country
capacity of 103.6 MW and generating 0.8 TWh/year) was adopted (Dikambaev, 2019). Likely more small units are installed in rural
in 2009; however, as of 2013, only 51 plants were commissioned remote locations, but comprehensive information on these is not
(Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013b). Turkmenistan has the least available. It is notable that solar flat-plate collectors are made
installed capacity of 5 MW or 0.4% of the potential, but Uzbekistan locally. Importantly, two industrial plants manufactured Silicium,
has 71 MW installed for plants up to 10 MW with annual power which is used on PV modules (Botpaev et al., 2011); yet the scale
generation of 4.6 TWh (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). of such operations is unknown.
In Tajikistan, solar energy remains undeveloped, except for
3.2. Solar small PV panels and solar home systems in remote areas, largely
donated by non-governmental organizations, to provide electric-
In Kazakhstan, according to the Ministry of Energy (2020), ity for lighting. One source indicates that in 2009–2014, 2433
installed capacity of solar power stations was 883.6 MW as of the units of solar systems with a total installed capacity of 88.7 kW
first half of 2020, while the information and analytical magazine were delivered to 13 remote areas (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016).
QazaqSolar (2020b) reported 797.6 MW in the first quarter of No large solar projects were under consideration (Doukas et al.,
2020. At the end of 2019, the installed capacity was 541.7 MW 2012) and do not seem to be on the horizon either.
(Nogaev, 2020; QazaqSolar, 2020a; USAID and KOREM, 2020). For Turkmenistan, CADGAT reports of solar desalination plants,
However, Shadrina (2020) estimates 209 MW of solar power ‘‘solar villages’’ in multiple locations, and possibility of produc-
being installed, whereas CADGAT reports nine projects with 107.1 ing silicon from the Karakum sand for photovoltaic convert-
MW of solar PV installed in 2019 (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Accord- ers; however, information on installed capacities is unavailable
ing to QazaqSolarz (2019), in 2019, a number of large-scale solar (Eshchanov et al., 2019).
power plants were put into operation, namely, ‘‘Nurgisa’’ 100 With assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB),
MW in Almaty oblast, ‘‘Zhangiz Solar’’ 30 MW in East Kazakhstan a roadmap for development of solar energy was prepared for
oblast, and ‘‘Saran’’ 100 MW, ‘‘Agadyr’’ 50 MW and ‘‘Gulyshat’’ Uzbekistan. Some projects for construction of large solar PV
40 MW in Karaganda oblast. Furthermore, 27 solar power plants plants in Surkhandarya, Namangan and Navoi regions were ini-
with a total capacity of 449.6 MW were operational in 2019 tiated. A 100 MW solar PV plant in Samarkand and another 100
(Sospanova, 2019). These installations suggest that estimates pro- MW solar PV plant in Surkhandarya region, with assistance from
vided by Shadrina (2020) and CADGAT (Eshchanov et al., 2019) ADB, were considered; however, ADB canceled all solar projects
are rather outdated, in view of the rapid development of re- (Nabiyeva, 2018). CADGAT reports of three small installations
newables sector in Kazakhstan. A number of other solar plants completed in 2016: Bukhara - Kandym Solar Power Plant (1.2
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MW), Namangan Pilot Solar Power Plant (0.4 MW), and Tashkent and KOREM, 2020). A 360 kW biogas unit in Kostanai region,
- International Solar Energy Institute (0.2 MW) (Eshchanov et al., installed in 2011, delivers 3 million kWh of electricity annually
2019). According to IRENA, 4 MW of capacity was installed with (Karatayev and Clarke, 2016). The 2018–2019 auctions included
5 GWh of electricity produced in 2018 (IRENA, 2020). 15.4 MW of bioenergy projects (USAID and KOREM, 2020). In
2019, the amount of electricity produced at bioelectricity stations
3.3. Wind was 14.9 million kWh (QazaqSolar, 2020a), while in the first
quarter of 2020 it was 0.62 million kWh and in the first half of
In Kazakhstan, the installed capacity for wind power plants 2020 it was 2.5 million kWh (Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan,
was 335.9 MW in the first quarter of 2020 (QazaqSolar, 2020b) 2020).
and increased to 383.9 MW in the first half of 2020 (Ministry of In Kyrgyzstan, the annually generated 2.5 million tons of ani-
Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020). It was 283.8 MW at the end of 2019 mal waste on farms can be utilized to produce biogas (methane)
(Nogaev, 2020; QazaqSolar, 2020a; USAID and KOREM, 2020). One and organic fertilizers (Obozov and Isaev, 2015). Biogas produc-
source reports that 14 wind farms are operational with a total tion of various scales has gradually increased (60 installations by
installed capacity of 180 MW (Shadrina, 2020), while another 2011) due to availability of raw material and appropriation of
source counts 18 plants with a combined 281.8 MW capacity technology for the purpose, facilitated by non-profit and commer-
(Sospanova, 2019). With assistance from the European Bank for cial organizations (Botpaev et al., 2011). Currently, there are up to
Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), a 50 MW wind power 100 modern medium-size installations (20–150 m3 of bioreactor
park was constructed near Astana. The auction mentioned above capacity) of biogas plants and about 20 artisanal homemade
also included 609.84 MW of wind power (USAID and KOREM, biogas plants (with bioreactor capacities of 3 to 10 m3 ). It is
2020). Another source reports a wind power plant under con- possible to construct in 10–12 years up to 10,000 farm and ‘‘back-
struction in Akmola region, with 45 MW installed capacity and yard’’ biogas plants (Obozov and Isaev, 2015). Information on
172.2 million kWh of annual generation (Karatayev and Clarke, installed capacities (in energy terms), however, is unavailable for
2016). According to CADGAT, nine wind plants with a combined Kyrgyzstan as well as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
installed capacity of 134.3 MW were put into operation from
2012 to 2017 (Eshchanov et al., 2019). The wind power plants 4. Renewable energy outlook
generated 717.4 million kWh of electricity in 2019, 247.08 million
kWh in the first quarter of 2020, and 496.26 million kWh in the The outlook for renewable energy appears to be positive, as
first half of 2020 (Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, 2020). the Central Asian countries are becoming cognizant of the ne-
While no installed wind power plants are reported in Kyr- cessity to deploy renewable energy sources to meet the increas-
gyzstan, there were 10 small-scale windmills constructed in rural ing demand for energy while pursuing a sustainability agenda
areas of Tajikistan with 100 kW of combined installed capacity (e.g. reducing CO2 footprint). Once again, Kazakhstan is most
(Eshchanov et al., 2019). Another source indicates installation aggressive in this regard, but the rest have also adopted some
in two rural districts of nine wind turbines with a total in- policies and programs to further capitalize on renewable energy
stalled capacity of 5.1 kW, with investments from international resources. However, current deployment, as discussed above, sug-
organizations (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). In Turkmenistan, one gests that Kazakhstan may be likely to achieve the set goals,
wind energy unit with 5 MW of installed capacity for a local whereas for the rest the aspirations may remain on paper, due
school is reported by CADGAT (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Wind atlas to many barriers discussed in the next section.
of Uzbekistan was developed with assistance from the World
Bank and investment for a pilot wind power plant with 750 4.1. Kazakhstan
kW capacity in Bostanlyk district of Tashkent region was under
consideration (Consulate-General of the Republic of Uzbekistan In Kazakhstan, the law ‘‘On Supporting the Use of Renew-
in Bangkok, 2017; [Link], 2018), which CADGAT reports able Energy Sources’’ was adopted in 2009 (Sospanova, 2019)
as being constructed (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Construction of a and amended in 2017, introducing a fixed tariff mechanism for
100 MW wind power plant (location unspecified) was planned auction trading (Kazhiyev, 2020). Further, to wean the economy
(Avezova et al., 2017), but the status of this wind power plant off of fossil fuels, particularly coal (which accounts for over 70%
is unknown. According to the International Renewable Energy of electricity generation (Moldabayev, 2020)), the Government of
Agency (IRENA), 1 MW of capacity was installed in 2018 but Kazakhstan issued in 2013 the ‘‘National Concept for Transition to
no data on annual generation is provided (IRENA, 2020). It is a Green Economy up to 2050’’ that, among other things, aims to
likely that small installations were constructed in Central Asian increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation
countries, but detailed information is not available. to 3% by 2020, 30% by 2030 and 50% by 20505 (Karatayev and
Clarke, 2014). Plans were put forward to construct 41 small-
3.4. Bioenergy scale hydropower plants with a total capacity of 539 MW by
2020 (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016), where key factors driving com-
It should be acknowledged at the start that in Central Asia mercial interest were ‘‘low cost, reliability and environmental
solid biomass (wood, straw, cotton stalks, animal dung, etc.) is friendliness’’ (Karatayev and Clarke, 2016, p. 498). Kazakhstan
burned for cooking and heating purposes in rural areas; however, became the first country in Central Asia to hold auctions on
reliable information about the amounts by country is unavailable. renewable energy sources (Dyatel, 2018; Nabiyeva, 2018) that
Here information is provided on commercial development as encouraged competition leading to tariff reductions (e.g. by 40%
opposed to traditional use of biomass in the domestic sector. for solar power (USAID and KOREM, 2020) and attraction of
In Kazakhstan, bioenergy utilization has been promoted by large banks (e.g. EBRD, ADB) and international private investment
government and international organizations, but uptake is slow, (Sospanova, 2019). The auctions attracted 145 companies from
with 7.82 MW of capacity installed (Ministry of Energy of Kaza- 12 countries, including Kazakhstan, Russia, China, Turkey, the
khstan, 2020). Shadrina (2020) reports deployment of 1.3 MW of Netherlands, France, United Arab Emirates, Bulgaria, Italy, Ger-
biofuels, while Sospanova (2019) counts three bioenergy stations many, Malaysia and Spain (USAID and KOREM, 2020). In the two
with 2.4 MW of installed capacity. Other sources also confirm 2.4
MW at the end of 2019 (Nogaev, 2020; QazaqSolar, 2020a; USAID 5 The 50% to 2050 target also includes nuclear energy.

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years, 28 auctions for a total of 1255 MW of installed capacity to a large extent on the location of the station and equipment
were held, while total capacity successfully auctioned amounted manufacturers and amount to USD800-1500. The cost of generat-
to 1,070.82 MW, which included: wind power — 609.84 MW, ing electricity at rehabilitated small-scale hydropower plants can
solar power — 356.5 MW, small-scale hydropower — 89.08 MW, be 2–8 cents/kWh, at newly built small-scale hydropower plants
and bioenergy — 15.4 MW (USAID and KOREM, 2020). The role of — 3.5–3.6 cents/kWh, at small-scale hydropower plants with
the Astana Energy EXPO-2017 is also notable in raising interna- irrigation reservoirs — 0.6–1.1 cents/kWh. A UNDP study (Slay,
tional interest in the energy sector (Sospanova, 2019). Although, 2011) estimated the generation costs of renewable energy to be
Shadrina (2020) points out that implementation of renewable 19 cents per kWh for small-scale hydropower plants, 21 cents per
energy programs and strategies lags behind, as, for example, the kWh for wind and bioenergy, 24 cents per kWh for geothermal
goal of 3% generation from renewable energy by 2020 has not and 32 cents per kWh for solar power. To make electricity pro-
been reached yet,6 total capacity of renewable energy is expected duction from renewable sources competitive, technology-specific
to increase to 1660 MW (from 1,414 MW as of first quarter of tariffs are required to increase private investment, because the
2020) to reach the target of 3% by end of 2020 (QazaqSolar, current electricity tariff (1 cent/kWh) is significantly below the
2020b). Given the aggressive uptake facilitated through auctions, estimated investment costs. For the conditions of Kyrgyzstan, the
the set targets may be reachable. For example, ‘‘by 2025, total most promising areas of application of renewable energy sources
installed capacity is expected to be no less than 3,000 MW since can be considered facilities located in remote mountainous and
power purchase agreements with off-taker (FSC7 ) for 2600 MW rural areas that do not have centralized energy supply. The most
and bilateral agreements for 190 MW have already been signed, technically prepared for wide practical use are the development
and agreements for an additional 210 MW are in progress’’ (US- of heat supply due to solar radiation, biogas technology and
AID and KOREM, 2020, p. 4). It is also worth noting that bids power supply based on the use of wind energy, small streams
were 3.4 times greater in 2018 and 3.2 times greater in 2019 than and solar PV stations. The industrial enterprises of Kyrgyzstan can
the capacity auctioned, meaning that demand for development produce (with an annual increase of 10%–15%): solar collectors
surpassed supply of auctioned capacity; thus, showing a positive — 100–150 thousand m2 per year; micro HPPs — 2–2.5 MW
outlook towards renewable energy deployment (USAID and KO- per year; wind turbines — 250–300 kW per year; photoelectric
REM, 2020, p. 4). Nonetheless, one forecast predicts the share of converters on the existing base — up to 2–3 MW per year; and
renewable energy to reach 4.3%, thus falling short of 6% by 2025 biogas plants — 70–100 million m3 per year (Obozov et al., 2013).
(Moldabayev, 2020).
4.3. Tajikistan
4.2. Kyrgyzstan
In Tajikistan, there are several key documents developed, such
At the strategic level, the ‘‘National Development Strategy as the ‘‘National Development Strategy to 2030’’, the ‘‘Program for
to 2040’’, the ‘‘Strategy for Sustainable Development to 2040’’ Development in Mid-term Perspective 2016–2020’’, the ‘‘Power
and the ‘‘Green Economy Concept’’ have been developed in Kyr- Sector Development Master Plan’’ and the ‘‘Sustainable Devel-
gyzstan; however, they lack specificity regarding goals, mea- opment Transition Concept to 2022’’; however, despite their ac-
surements, outcomes, budget and agency responsibilities, which knowledgment of diversification of energy sources, they focus on
impede implementation (Shadrina, 2020). The law on ‘‘Renewable hydropower, only mentioning solar, wind, biomass and biogas
Energy Sources’’, adopted in 2008 and recently amended in 2019, in passing, while discrepancy among the documents is a major
created a legislative framework for renewable energy feed-in tar- shortfall (Shadrina, 2020). Although the primary focus is develop-
iffs (Ministry of Justice of Kyrgyz Republic, 2008). The tariffs are ment of large-scale hydropower, Tajikistan has considered other
designed to ensure reimbursement and coverage of investment renewables, especially small-scale hydropower as well. As early
costs for up to eight years. However, the law is yet to be fully as 2007, the ‘‘Special Program for Renewable Energy Sources Use
implemented, and several bylaws, for example the definition of in Tajikistan for 2007–2015’’ was adopted, which introduced a
tariff calculation and determination, are still under development. set of measures for wider use of renewable sources of energy:
The government is reviewing drafts of the bylaws. solar, wind, biomass, small hydro and geothermal (Energy Char-
While Kyrgyzstan is focusing on large hydropower plants, ter Secretariat, 2013b). In 2010, the law ‘‘On Use of Renewable
building and rehabilitation of 132 small-scale hydropower plants Energy Sources’’ was adopted, followed by enacting a number of
totaling 275 MW were planned between 2010 and 2025 (UNIDO by-laws to regulate issues of grid connection, metering, trans-
and ICSHP, 2016). In 2008, 24 plants (200 MW) were planned mission, tax relief and tariffs (Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013b).
to undergo reconstruction (Baum, 2008). According to Isaev and According to the ‘‘Long-term Programme for the Construction of
Tolomushev (2016), it is possible to build 92 new small-scale Small Hydropower Plants for 2009–2020’’, 189 plants with a total
hydropower plants with a total capacity of 178 MW and an capacity of 103.18 MW and generating 0.8 TWh per year were
average annual output of up to 1 billion kWh of electricity. In
to be constructed between 2009 and 2020 (Doukas et al., 2012;
addition, construction of seven hydroelectric power stations is
Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013b). However, by 2016, only 41
possible on irrigation reservoirs, with an installed capacity of 75
stations were commissioned, 20 were under construction and
MW and an average annual electricity generation of about 220
the remaining 128 were not implemented for unknown reasons
million kWh. All these stations can have a particularly important
(Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013b). The Ministry of Energy and
place for powering dispersed locations in mountainous and rural
Water Resources and ADB conducted feasibility studies for the
areas with a developed hydrographic network. The unit costs for
installation of solar panels in 138 rural remote villages; however,
the construction of new small-scale hydropower plants depend
plans for solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy are yet to be
developed (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016).
6 By end of 2019, the share of renewable electricity generation was 2.3%
(2400 million kWh), owing to a 77% increase in generation compared to 2018 4.4. Turkmenistan
(Nogaev, 2020).
7 Financial Settlement Center for Renewable Energy (FSC) carries out central-
ized purchase and sale of electric power, produced by renewable energy sources
Turkmenistan yet again remains in the black box regarding
and delivered to the electric networks of the unified electric power system of its outlook due to lack of information, and supporting policy
the Republic of Kazakhstan (KEGOC JSC, 2019). for renewable energy (Eshchanov et al., 2019). Nonetheless, the
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‘‘National Socioeconomic Development Program for 2011–2030’’, Moreover, according to the ‘‘State Action Plan on Renewable
supplemented by a shorter-term document (2019–2021), was Energy’’, 810 projects worth USD5.3 billion are to be constructed
developed that considers energy diversification; however, the before 2025, thereby increasing the share of solar and wind
documents suffer from lack of actionable measures or allocation power from 1% to 2.3% and 1.3% respectively and setting specific
of responsibility for implementation (Shadrina, 2020). One source targets for solar PV at 100 MW in 2018, 200 MW in 2019, 300 MW
notes that nine small-scale hydropower plants with 57 MW po- in 2021, and 450 MW in 2025 (Nabiyeva, 2018). However, the
tential capacity were proposed, but without clear execution dates only notable progress appears to be a 100 MW wind farm under
(UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). construction in Navoi region, while three of the five solar projects
were postponed and no evidence of implementation of large-scale
4.5. Uzbekistan renewable projects is available ((Eshchanov et al., 2019).

Unlike other Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan has yet to

5. Barriers to renewable energy development
develop a long-term development strategy. Currently, there is the
‘‘Action Strategy on Five Priority Directions for the Development
2017–2021’’ and a draft strategy (as of 2019) for renewable en- Barriers standing in the way of development of renewable
ergy development. However, the Action Strategy does not provide energy in Central Asia have been discussed in other publications,
appropriate benchmarks and the draft strategy is not adopted based on which we provide a consolidated summary in Table 3.
yet (Shadrina, 2020). The ‘‘Renewable Energy Law’’ was adopted It is notable that the major domains of challenges have not
in 2019 and outlines state support for the renewable energy changed much over the past two decades, since Painuly (2001)
sector; however, it lacks details on the type of support and identified barriers to renewable energy penetration such as: (i)
associated procedures (Unerbayeva, 2020). Before this law, the market failure; (ii) market distortions; (iii) economic and financial
legislative domain mainly comprised high-level decisions to pro- barriers; (iv) institutional barriers; (v) technical barriers; and (vi)
mote utilization of renewable energy sources (Unerbayeva, 2020). social barriers. Granted, some progress has been made, as was
A Republication Commission on Energy Efficiency and Develop- discussed above in terms of deployment as well as policy and
ment of Renewable Energy was set up under the Ministry of plans.
Economy. The International Institute of Solar Energy in Tashkent, While all these domains are important to consider, we empha-
established with support of the ADB in 2012, was given a stronger size an important challenge that is overlooked in other studies:
mandate to investigate the feasibility of renewable energy and namely, the limited availability of accurate data and information
develop technologies. The decree of the President, dated March on renewable energy, with the notable exception of small-scale
1, 2013, ‘‘On Measures for Further Development of Alternative hydropower. As shown above in the sections on potentials and
Sources of Energy’’ and another decree, dated May 5, 2015, "On deployment, estimates vary across studies, as underlying meth-
Program of Measures to Reduce Energy Consumption, Implement ods used to arrive at those figures are not clearly specified.
Energy Saving Technologies in Industries and the Social Sector in Obviously, assessments of gross, technical and economic feasibil-
2015–2019’’, as well as a new decree, "On Measures on Further ity are costly; yet without accurate information, estimation may
Development of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency in Sectors lead to sub-optimal decisions and waste of precious resources.
of the Economy and Social Sphere for 2017–2021’’, were adopted The quality and level of detail of information on environmental,
to promote greater use of renewables (Consulate-General of the social and governance opportunities and risks presents further
Republic of Uzbekistan in Bangkok, 2017). There were plans to challenges to the update of renewables. There is a critical need for
construct four new small-scale hydropower plants, with a total research on innovative renewable energy technologies, especially
capacity of 23.5 MW, and to rehabilitate 11 plants (no capacity as Central Asian countries are moving towards adoption of such
specified), between 2016 and 2020 (UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). The technologies, which should be customized to local conditions.
share of renewable energy is expected to increase from 13% to
Moreover, monitoring and follow-up on renewable energy plans
20% by 2025 and 25% by 2030, through construction of 5 GW of
and their implementation is necessary to ensure that projects are
solar photovoltaic and 3 GW of wind power plants (Arzumanyan,
carried out accordingly and any obstacles are removed in time, so
2020). However, the implementation status of these projects
that they do not jeopardize deployment efforts.
remains unknown.
To overcome these barriers, Central Asian governments can
With the aim of replacing over 5–6 billion m3 of natural
start by recognizing the existence of such barriers and taking
gas per year, Avezova et al. (2017) project the share of renew-
steps to address them. In essence, each described barrier also
able energy sources to reach 19%–23%, which is mainly expected
points to ways of its remedial. In other words, the governments
to come from solar energy. In 2017, installation of five 100
MW solar plants was announced for the period of 2017–2021 and relevant stakeholders can consider addressing the barriers
(Nabiyeva, 2018). In 2018, yet another announcement was made presented in Table 3, as each item reflects areas where policy
about construction of a series of large-scale solar PV plants with should be developed or improved. For example, under ‘‘data and
a combined capacity of 1 GW and an associated USD1.3 billion information’’, a mixture of policy, investment, technology and
in cost (Nabiyeva, 2018). These five stations were planned by capacity-building efforts are necessary in order to systematically
UzbekEnergo (state owned energy company) through ADB loans collect, process, analyze and make available data in an accessible
and to be located in Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Kashkadaryo, format. More importantly, each item should not be taken in
Navoi and Namangan regions (Eshchanov et al., 2019). In 2019, isolation, but rather should be considered in relation to other
a draft investment document was revealed that proposed plans domains, because many barriers are interrelated, and therefore
for wind power plants with 500 MW installed capacity in coop- require a synergistic approach to overcome effectively. Such a
eration a company from Abu Dhabi (UzDaily, 2019). There is a systems approach requires working within and across sectors
scenario in which ‘‘the installed capacity could reach 3 GW in from energy to water to finance to education, just to name a
2030: with generating 5 TWh and around USD50 million yearly few. Addressing these barriers will help Central Asian countries
incomes, creating 2700 direct jobs and needing USD900 million reach a higher level of energy security, through diversification of
of annual investment’’, while the cumulative investment is es- sources, provision of access to a greater number of people, and
timated around USD7,000 million (Avezova et al., 2017, p. 46). greening of the energy supply.
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Table 3
Barriers to renewable energy in Central Asia.
Domain Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Regulatory Continued support Lack of clear Uncertainty about Absence of Lack of long-term
framework of fossil fuels for framework, private sector regulatory development strategy.
domestic supply conditions for participation, framework related Lack of useful goal
and exports. Lack investors, and independent to RE. Lack of a benchmarks. RE law
of regulation of clear regulations power producers strategy/roadmap adopted recently, but
technical and enforcement. as per the legal for the regulatory framework is
specifications. Lack of responsible and regulatory development of RE yet to emerge. Monopoly
Frequent change state agency and framework. sources. Lack of of state-owned
in legislation division of Discrepancy in intermediate electricity company is
scares away functions among development and actions with yet to be unbundled.
investors. stakeholders. Lack adoption of legal measurable goals.
Institutional of measurable and and regulatory Lack of responsible
investors have no time-bound goals. frameworks. agency. Lack real
mandate for Overemphasis on Overlapping and energy market due
‘‘green’’ or large-scale unclear roles and to vertically
responsible hydropower. responsibilities of integrated
investments. Slow Monopoly in the different production,
translation of generation and institutions. transmission and
policy ideas into transmission is yet Overemphasis on distribution of
action. to be restructured. large-scale electricity by one
hydropower with monopolistic
insufficient state-owned
consideration of company. Lack of
other RE sources. good governance,
Monopoly in the transparency and
energy market accountability in
while unbundling all institutions in
of state-owned energy sector.
electricity
company is yet to
be implemented.
Infrastructure Challenge of Outdated and Dilapidated energy No info. Aging energy
transporting overloaded energy infrastructure. infrastructure.
RE-generated infrastructure. Difficult mountain
electricity through Difficult mountain terrain and lack of
the transmission terrain and lack of roads to transport
system and to the roads to transport equipment, e.g. for
consumption equipment, e.g. for large-scale wind
centers of the large-scale wind power plants.
country. Lack of power plants.
technical
requirements for
the integration of
RE facilities into
the grid, and
standards for RE
equipment.
Finances Local currency Low prices for Low electricity Due to the Lack of financing and
devalua- conventional tariffs below cost existing free investment in the energy
tion/depreciation energy. Low recovery, coupled quotas on utilities, sector. Low electricity
vs USD. Lack of electricity tariffs. with economic investment in RE prices.
financing for Lack of financial losses due to sources by private
scientific research resources and low non-payment of companies is not
in RE. High capital financial support electricity bills. followed or
costs for new RE from the Lack of financing promoted.
equipment. Government. and mechanism to
manage funds.
Expertise and Lack of capacity Technical capacity Lack of local No info. Lack of human resources
know-how building and improvement expertise in skilled in RE technology.
professional needed for local project
development. Lack companies on development and
of qualified construction and maintenance of
personnel to maintenance. Lack plants/equipment.
develop, design, of qualified Lack of
finance, build, specialists. institutional
operate and capacity to
maintain implement
renewable energy regulations.
projects. Changing
oversight of
energy sector
leading to
institutional
memory loss.

(continued on next page)

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Table 3 (continued).
Domain Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Awareness Emerging Low awareness of Lack of awareness No info. Lack of clear support
and support awareness of the people, on the potential mechanisms for RE
role of RE at governmental significance of RE development.
policy level, but agencies, technology for
lacking at organizations and reducing energy
population level. institutions about insecurity.
the benefits of RE.
Data and Lack of up-to-date, detailed and reliable studies on RE gross, technical and economic potential, as
information well as forecast for RE uptake. Lack of quality and detailed information on environmental, social
and governmental opportunities and risks. Lack of research on innovative RE technologies. Lack of
monitoring and follow up on RE plans and implementation.

Data sources: Author’s compilation based on (Dikambaev, 2019; Energy Charter Secretariat, 2013a,b; Karatayev et al., 2016; Karatayev and Clarke, 2014; Kashkinbekov,
2017; QazaqSolar, 2020; Shadrina, 2020; UNIDO and ICSHP, 2016). Note: RE stands for renewable energy.

6. Conclusion CRediT authorship contribution statement

This paper provided a comprehensive yet a concise overview M. Laldjebaev: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal anal-
of the potential, deployment, outlook, and barriers to renewable ysis for all countries, Methodology, Visualization, Writing - orig-
energy, including small-scale hydropower, solar, wind, geother- inal draft, Writing - review & editing. R. Isaev: Data curation,
mal and bioenergy, for the five Central Asian countries of Kaza- Formal analysis for Kyrgyzstan, Writing - original draft, Writing
khstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. - review & editing. A. Saukhimov: Data curation, Formal analy-
Small-scale hydropower potential estimates range from 275 MW sis for Kazakhstan, Writing - original draft, Writing - review &
to 30,000 MW, solar PV from 195,000 MW to 3,760,000 MW, wind editing.
from 1500 MW to 354,000 MW, geothermal from 2 MW to 54,000
MW, and bioenergy from 200 MW to 800 MW. While substantial
Declaration of competing interest
potentials are estimated in the region, deployment falls far short,
e.g. 5 – 225 MW in small-scale hydropower across five countries.
Of all countries, Kazakhstan demonstrates the most aggressive The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
approach towards deployment of renewable energy, particularly cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
in large-scale solar PV (>800 MW) and wind (>300 MW) installa- to influence the work reported in this paper.
tions, with involvement of international private sector companies.
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