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Probability Concepts and Calculations

The document covers various concepts in probability and statistics, including the complement rule, cumulative distribution functions, independent events, variance, and moments of random variables. It provides formulas and examples for calculating probabilities, expected values, and variances for different distributions such as Poisson, uniform, and hypergeometric. Additionally, it discusses generating functions and properties of random variables in various scenarios.

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Milind Sharma
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
7 views3 pages

Probability Concepts and Calculations

The document covers various concepts in probability and statistics, including the complement rule, cumulative distribution functions, independent events, variance, and moments of random variables. It provides formulas and examples for calculating probabilities, expected values, and variances for different distributions such as Poisson, uniform, and hypergeometric. Additionally, it discusses generating functions and properties of random variables in various scenarios.

Uploaded by

Milind Sharma
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

1. For any event A, the probability that A does not occur is given by _____.

Complement rule: probability that event does not occur.


By the complement rule,
P(A' ) = 1 - P(A).

2. The cumulative distribution function (CDF), F(x), is defined as F(x) = P(_____).


Definition of CDF.
F(x) = P(X ≤ x).

3. If P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B), the events A and B are said to be _____.


Characterization of independent events.
The events are independent.

4. The second central moment of a random variable is equal to the _____.


Relation between central moment and variance.
The second central moment is equal to Var(X) = E[(X - µ)^2].

5. For any event A, P(A ∪ A′) = ___.


Union with complement covers the sample space.
P(A ∪ A' ) = 1.

6. The covariance of two random variables X and Y is zero if X and Y are _____.
Definition of uncorrelated variables.
X and Y are uncorrelated.

7. A continuous random variable between X=2 and X=5 has density f(x)=k(1+x). Find P(X<4).
Normalize PDF and integrate up to 4.
1) Solve for k: ∫■■ (1+x) dx = [x + x²/2]■■ = 17.5 - 4 = 13.5 ⇒ k = 1/13.5 = 2/27.
2) P(X<4) = ∫■■ k(1+x) dx = k[ (x + x²/2) ]■■ = (2/27)*(12-4) = 16/27.

8. Number of monthly breakdowns ~ Poisson(λ=1.8). Find (i) P(X=1), (ii) P(at least one breakdown).
Poisson probabilities.
i) P(X=1) = e^{-1.8} * (1.8)^1 / 1! = 1.8 e^{-1.8}.
ii) P(X ≥ 1) = 1 - P(X=0) = 1 - e^{-1.8}.

9. Select 3 bulbs from 10 (6 good) for 3 lamps. Find P(room is lighted).


All bulbs selected must be good.
P = C(6,3) / C(10,3) = 20 / 120 = 1/6.

10. PDF f(x)=2e^{-2x}, x≥0. Find MGF and first four moments about origin.
Compute M(t)=E[e^{tX}] and derivatives at t=0.
MGF: M(t)=∫■^∞ 2e^{-(2-t)x} dx = 2/(2 - t), for t<2.
Moments:
µ■ = M'(0)=2/(2)^2=1/2,
µ■ = M''(0)=4/(2)^3=1/2,
µ■ = M'''(0)=24/(2)^4=3/2,
µ■ = M■■■(0)=96/(2)^5=3.

11. p=1/100. Find n so that P(at least one success) > 1/2.
Use complement and solve inequality.
1 - (1 - 1/100)^n > 1/2 ⇒ (0.99)^n < 1/2 ⇒ n > ln(0.5)/ln(0.99) ≈ 68.95 ⇒ n ≥ 69.

12. X ~ Uniform(a,b) with mean 1 and variance 4/3. Find P(X>0).


Determine interval then compute tail probability.
Mean=(a+b)/2=1, Var=(b-a)^2/12=4/3 ⇒ b-a=4, so a=-1, b=3.
P(X>0)=(3-0)/(3-(-1))=3/4.

13. X = outcome of fair die. Find MGF, E(X), Var(X).


Sum of exponentials; standard die moments.
MGF: M(t)=(1/6)(e^t+e^{2t}+...+e^{6t}).
E[X]=3.5, Var(X)=35/12.

14. X,Y independent Poisson. P(X=1)=P(X=2), P(Y=2)=P(Y=3). Find Var(X-2Y).


Solve for λ parameters then variance.
λ_x=2, λ_y=3. Var(X-2Y)=Var(X)+4Var(Y)=2 + 4*3 = 14.

15. Bag: 3 red,6 white,7 blue. Draw 2 balls. P(white & blue).
Hypergeometric probability any order.
P = 2 * [C(6,1)C(7,1)] / C(16,2) = 84/120 = 7/10.

16. X takes {1,2,3,4} with 2P(1)=3P(2)=P(3)=5P(4). Find PDF and CDF.


Express probabilities in terms of k and normalize.
Let P(3)=k ⇒ P(1)=k/2, P(2)=k/3, P(4)=k/5. Sum=1 ⇒ k(1/2+1/3+1+1/5)=1 ⇒ 61k/30=1 ⇒ k=30/61.
Hence P={15/61,10/61,30/61,6/61}. CDF: {15/61,25/61,55/61,1}.

17. Two dice thrown 100 times. Find average # times first die > second die.
Probability of success * trials.
P(first>second)=15/36 ⇒ expected = 100*(15/36) ≈ 41.67.

18. X ~ Uniform(-3,3). Compute (i) P(X<2), P(|X|<2), P(|X-2|<2); (ii) find k: P(X>k)=1/3; (iii)-(v) probabil
Uniform properties and algebraic conditions.
(i) P(X<2)=(2+3)/6=5/6; P(|X|<2)=(2-(-2))/6=2/3; P(|X-2|<2)=P(0<X<4)=(3-0)/6=1/2.
(ii) (3-k)/6=1/3 ⇒ k=1.
(iii)-(v) Probabilities = {(1+3x)/4,(1-x)/4,(1+2x)/4,(1-4x)/4}; require all ≥0 ⇒ x∈[-1/3,1/4].

19. Moments µ_r=(r+1)! 2^r. Find MGF.


Use series sum form.
M(t)=Σ µ_r t^r/r!=Σ (r+1)(2t)^r=1/(1-2t)^2.

20. 5% defective, n=100, guarantee ≤4 defects. Approx P(box fails).


Use Poisson approximation.
Let X~Poisson(5). P(X>4)=1-Σ_{k=0}^4 e^{-5}5^k/k!.

21. Ball numbered 1-30. P(multiple of 5 or 9).


Count favorable outcomes.
Multiples of 5:6, of 9:3, overlap:0. Total=9 ⇒ P=9/30=3/10.
22. X continuous with PDF f(x)=x^2,1<x<2. Find E(log X).
Normalize PDF and integrate log x * x^2.
Normalize: f(x)=3x^2/7. E(log X)= ∫_1^2 log x * (3x^2/7) dx = (8/7)log2 - 1/3.

23. Coin toss n times, P(head)=p. P(even # heads)?


Use generating functions.
P(even)= (1 + (1-2p)^n)/2.

24. Trains every 15 min. Passenger uniform 9:00-9:30. P(wait<6), P(wait>10).


Wait time ~ Uniform(0,15).
P(wait<6)=6/15=2/5; P(wait>10)=5/15=1/3.

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