IMAT2715 – Operational Research
Tutorials / Labs – 1
Introduction to Probability and Uncertainty
Q1
A sample of 200 invoices has been analyzed by size and whether they pay invoices promptly.
120 of the companies are large, of which 80 are slow payers. In total, 60 of all the companies
are fast payers.
large small total
Fast paying 40 20 60
Slow paying 80 60 140
Total 120 80 200
a) What is the probability that a company chosen at random is a fast payer?
b) What is the probability that a company chosen at random is a slow payer?
c) What is the probability that a company chosen at random is a fast-paying small company?
d) What is the probability of being both a large and a small company?
e) What is the probability of being a large company or a fast payer?
Q2
The students in a class have been classified as follows:
home overseas total
male 66 29 95
female 102 3 105
168 32 200
a) If a student is selected at random what is the probability that the student will be from
overseas?
b) If a student is selected at random what is the probability that the student will be male?
c) If a student is selected at random what is the probability that the student will be a overseas
or a female student?
d) If a student is selected at random what is the probability that the student will be a male
overseas student?
1
IMAT2715 – Operational Research
Q3 An office has the following types of employees:
female male total
administrative 20 21 41
managerial 12 10 22
operational 42 38 80
74 69 143
If a person from the office is selected at random what is the probability that the person is:
a) Male,
b) an operator,
c) either a manager or an administrator,
d) manager and female?
Note these questions continue with the previous data.
Q4 The students in a class have been classified as follows:
home overseas total
male 66 29 95
female 102 3 105
168 32 200
a) If a student selected is female, what is the probability that the student will be from
overseas?
a) If a student is male, what is the probability that the student is from overseas?
b) If the student is from overseas, what is the probability that he or she will be
male?
Q5 An office has the following types of employees:
female male total
administrative 20 21 41
managerial 12 10 22
operational 42 38 80
74 69 143
a) If a person is female what is the probability that they will be an administrator?
b) If a person is male what is the chance that they will be an operator?
c) If the person is a manager what is the chance that they will be female?
2
IMAT2715 – Operational Research
Q6 In a survey of 200 companies conducted over several years, 12 were no longer trading in
1993. 56 of companies had made redundancies in 1991, of whom 8 were no longer trading
in 1993.
Draw a contingency table of the information given. Use the table to draw a table of
probability that a given company:
total
total 200
(a) did not make redundancies in 1991
(b) is still trading on 1993
(c) is no longer trading given that they made redundancies in 1991
(d) is still trading given that they made redundancies in 1991
Q7. An estate agent has collected data on 250 house buyers: 123 purchased houses under £40,000 and
90 were first time buyers of whom 73 purchased houses under £40,000. Let A be the event that a
buyer is a first time buyer and B be the event the buyer purchases a house under £40,000. Write
down events below in terms of events A and B and determine the probabilities:
Draw up a contingency table using the information given.
a) (i) buyer is the first time buyer
(ii) buyer purchasing a house under £40,000
b) (i) buyer is not first time buyer
(ii) buyer purchasing a house for £40,000 or more
c) Buyer is a first time buyer purchasing a house under £40,000
d) Buyer is a first time buyer or is purchasing a house under £40,000.
e) The buyer is a first time buyer given that he or she is purchasing a house under £40,000.
f) The buyer is purchasing a house £40,000 or more given that he or she is not a first time buyer.
Q8. For parts (a) and (b) below calculate P(A|B) and P(B|A) and determine whether A and B are
independent.
(a) P(A) = 0.45, P(B) = 0.32, P(A and B) = 0.17
(b) P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.3 P(A and B) = 0.24