Mathematics Class 12 | 329

lcase Study Based Questions 2. Probability of the person to be tested as COVID

positive' given that he is actually not having COVID
aseStudy1 1 -001
reliability of a COVID PCR test is specificd as
-P -1%
100
The
follows: So, option (a) is correct
ofpeople having COVID, 90% ofthe test detccts the 3. Probability that the person is actually not having
disease but 10% goes undetected. Of people fee of 999
COVID = P(E,) -(100-0)% - 999% 0999
D99% of the test is judged COVID negative 1000
C1% are diagnosed as showving COVID positive. So, option (b) is correct
From a large population of which only 0.1% have 4. Probability that the person is actually having cOVIO
cOVID, one person is selected at random, given the given that he is tested as COVID pOsitive
oVID PCR test, and the pathologist reports him/her
as COVID positive. P(E)P
A
P(E) P
01% x90%
9
PE;)P¬,
P(E}) -07%)
O.1% x90%+ 9990%
01x90
0190+999 x1 9+999 1089
= 0.0826
:. Required probability =0083
So, option (c) is correct.
Based on the above information, solve the following 5. Probability that the personselected willbe diagnosed
questions: as COVID positive.
01. What is the probability of the person to be tested A A
as COVID positive' given that 'he is actually having P(A) =P(Ei)xPP(E2) xPE
COVID'?
=0.1% x90%+ 99.9%x1%
a. 0.001 b. 0.1 C. 0.8 d. 0.9 90 999 1089
+ 001089
Q
2. What is the probability of the 'person to be tested 100000 10000o 100000
as COVID positive' given that 'he is actually not So, option (b) is correct.
having COVID'?
a. 0.01 b. 0.99 c.0.1 d. 0.001 Case Study 2
03. What is the probability that the 'person is actually
not having COVID"?
a. 0.998 b. 0.999 c. 0.001 d. 0.111
Q4. What is the probability that the 'person is actually
having COVID' given that 'he is tested as COVID
positive?
a. 0.83 b. 0.0803 C. 0.083 d. 0.089
Q5. What isthe probability that the 'person selected
willbe diagnosed as COVID positive"?
a. 0.1089 b. 0.01089 c.0.0189 d. 0.189

USolutions
Consider the events An insurance company believes that pople can e
¬= People having COVID, divided into tvO classes: those who aIe avnt
E, = People free of COVID prone and those who are not. The wyny's
A=Person to be tested as COVID positive
I. Probability of the 'person to be tested as COVID
statistics show that an accident pone peson wll
have an accident at someime wihin a tìxnt oner
positive' given that he is actually having COVID period wvith probability 0.6, whevas thìs robabiliy
90
90% =
100
-0.9 is 0.2 for a person who is not accitent pne ?he
company knowsthat 20 per cent of the pulation t
So, option (d) is correct. aceident prone,
330 MASTERMIND CHAPTERWISE JUEBTION BANK
Based on the given information, solve the
questions: following QSolutions
(CBSE SOP 2022 Term-2)
Q1. What is the 1. We have, A,:A,: Az =4;4:2
probability that a new
will have an accident within a year of policyholder 2
purchasing a : P(A)=0P(Az)nand P(A,) -
policy?
Q2. Suppose that a new policyholder has an where A, A, and A denote the three ttypes
accident
within a year of purchasing a policy. What is seeds.

probability that he or she is accident prone? the Let E be the event that aseed gerrninates
45
P(E/ A,)= 45% =100 P(E /Az) =60%
QSolutions and P(E/ A)=35% =100
35
1. Let E,= The policy
holder is
E, =The policy holder is accident prone. P(E) =P(A)-P(A/E,) +
not accident
E=The new policy holder has an prone. P(A;)-P(A /Ez) +P(A,)-P(A/E)
a year of accident within 4 45 4
purchasing a policy. 60 2 35
Here, P(E,) =06 10100 10 100 10 100
10 490
=0.49
P(E,) =0.22
I and P(E/E,) =20% = 20
1000
P(A;)-P(El Az)
P(E/E,)=(100-20)%= 80% = 80
100 2.
P E) P(A)P(E / A,) +P(Az)
100 P(EI A;)+ P(A,)P(E lA)
P(E) =P(E) xP(E/E\) +P(E,)
xP(E/E,) (by Bayes' theorem)
=620
x 2 80 280 7 60
10100 10100 1000 25
2. By Bayes' theorem, =4 45 10100
60 2 35
10100 10100 10100
P(E,/E) =P(E) ×P(E/E}) 240/1000 240 24
P(E) 490/1000 490
=

49
20
10 100 3 Case Study 4
280 7 (From Part ()) Airplanes are by far the safest mode of transportation
1000 when the number of
Case Study 3 measured against personaltransported passengers are
injuries and fatality totals.
A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A,,
A,A. They are sold in the form of amixture,
where the proportions of these seeds are 4 : 4:2,
respectively. The germination rates of the three types
of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively.

Previous records state that the probability of an

airplane crash is
chances that there0.00001%. Further, there are 95%
will be survivors after a
crash. Assume that in case of no crash, all plane
survive. travellers
Let E, be the event that there is a
plane crash and Ee
the event that there is no crash. Let 4 be the event tha
Based on the above information, solve the following passengers surviveafter the journey.
Based on the above information, solve the
questions: (CBSE 2022 Term-2) questions: following
Q1. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen (CBSE 2024)
Q1. Find the probabiity that the airplane will not
seed will germinate. aas
Q2. Find PIA/E, )+
Q2. Calculate the probability that the seed is of type 93. Find PIA).
PA/E,).
Ag, given that a randomly chosen seed
Or
germinates. Find P(E, /A).
 Mathematics | Class 12 | 331
solutions Q3. What is the probability that many workers are not
present given that the construction work is
Wehave. completed on time?
É,=Event that a plane crash Or
Event that a plane will not crash
What is the probability that all workers were
A= Event that pasSsengers survive after the was
present given that the construction job
journey. completed on time?

- -P(A man survive after aplane crash)

95
QSolutions
-95% = -095 Here, P(E,)=065,
100
A)
-035 and P-080
andPl P(A man survive when a plane will not
P(E,)=1-P(E;)
1. P All workers were present)
-1-P(All were not present)
gash)
100 -1-065-035
=100%
=1.
100 when many
000001 2. P(Construction completed on time completed on
=000001% = workers were present 'or' construction
1Given, P(E;) 100
1 1 time when all workers were present)
- 00000001
100000 x100 10000000

P(Airplane will not crash) ie. P(E,)=1-P(E) -065 xO35 +0.35 x080
=1-00000001=0.9999999.
-0.2275+ 028 =05075
2 P(A/E)+ P(A/¬)=095+1=1.95 given that the
3. P(many workers were not present
construction workis completed on time) =P
x1
= 0.0000001x0.95+09999999 P(E}) ×P(E /E) (by Bayes' theorem)
= 0.000000095 + 09999999
=0999999995 P(E)-PE065 x035 065 065
Or 065 +080 145
xP(A/¬z) 09999999x1 065 x035+035 x0.80
PÍE, / A)- E2)P(A) 0999999995 =0448
Or
=0999999905
given that the
P(Al Workers were present
ase Study 5 4 construction job was completed on time) -P(E, /E)
Abuilding contractor undertakes a job to construct P(E;).P(E/E,) (by Bayes' theorem)
Due to strike
lals on a plot along with parking area. workers not P(E) P(EIE) +P(E,)-P(E/E,)
0.8
e probability of many constructionprobability that 035 x0.80 080 -055
145
DEing present for the job is 0.65. The 065 x035 +035 x080 065 +080
the work gets
iany are not present and still
Completed on time is 0.35. The probability that woTK Case Study6
an interview for
W De completed on time
when all workers are Rohit, Jasprect and Alia appeared for probability of
The
present is 0.80. three vacancies in the same post.
when many workers
Lq: represent the event
Were not present for the job
all workers were
e2: represent the event when
present and
construction work
: Tepresent completing the
On time.
following
information, solvethe(CBSE
Based on the above
2023)
questions: workers are
Q1. What is the probability that all the
present for the job?
2. What is the probability that construction will be
Completed on time?
332 | MASTERMIND CHAPTERWISE QUESTION BANK
Rohit's selection is -, Jaspreet's selection is - and Thus, the probability that exactly one of
5 3 selected:
13
30
them is
Alia's selection is The event of selection is Or

independent of each other. The probability that exactly two of them are

selselseeectlcteceetdded +4
Based on the given information, solve the following - Rohit and Jaspreet selected but Alia not
questions: (CBSE 2024) Rohit and Alia selected but Jaspreet not
Q1. What is the probability that at least one of them is Jaspreet and Alia selected | but Rohit not
selected? =P(H) ×P(G) xP(A) +P(H) xP(G) xP(A) selected
02. Find P(G/ H)where G is the event of Jaspreet's +P(H)×P(G)*PA)
selection and H denotes the event that Rohit is 1 13 12 1 411
X
not selected. 534534 5 34
03. Find the probability that exactly one of them is 1 1 1 3+2+4 9 3
selected. 20 30 15 60 60 20
Or Thus, the probability that exactly two of them a
Find the probability that exactly two of them are selected:
20
selected.
Case Study 7
QSolutions A departmental store sends bills to charge it
Given, the probability of Rohit'sselection P(H)= customers once a month. Past experience shows that
5 70% ofits customers pay their first month bill in time
1 4
and P(H) =1-P(H) =l-E5 The store also found that the customer who pays the
(: P(E) +P()=1) bill in time has the probability of 0.8 of paying in time
1
The probabilityof Jaspreet's selection P(G) - next month and the customner who doesn't pay in time
has the probability of 0.4 of paying in time the next
and P(G) =1-P(G) =1 month.

The probability of Alia's selection P(A)= 4

1 Based on the above information, solve the following
questions: (CBSE 2024)
and P(A) =1-P(A) =1 01. Let E, and E, respectively denote the event of
customer paying or not paying the first month bill
1. The probability that at least one of them is selected in time. Find P(E1) and P(E,).
=1-(probabilitythat no one is selected) 02. Let Adenotes the event of customer
423 2 3 paying
-1-P(&) P(G).P(A) =1-= second month's bill in time, then find PIA/E)
2. The probability of Jaspreet's selection P(G) and P(A/ E,).
93. Find the probability of customer paying second
The probablity of Rohit's selection P(H)= month's bill in time.
14 Or
and P(H) -1-P(H) =l5 Find the probability of customer paying first
P(G/H)-PGnH)_P(G) ×P(H) month's bill in time if it is found that customer has
P(H) P(H) paid the second month's bill in time.
1
P(G/&) - P(G) = Solutions
3. The probability that exactly one of them is selected
= Rohit selected other twO not selected + We have, E, = Event that customer paying the first
Jaspreet month's bill in time.
selected and other two not selected + Alia selected
other two not selected. E,= Event that customer is not paying the rs
month's bill in time
=P(H)×P(G) ×P( P(H)xP(G) xP( and A= Event that customer paying the seconu
+P(H)xP()xP(A) month's bill in time.
123, 4,13 421 70
5 34 7*G*7534
1, 2 3+6+ 4 13
1. P(E,) =70% :
100
0.7

10515 30 and P(E)=(100-70)% =30% = 30 = 03.

100
 =P(Customner paying second month's bill in
2. P(A/E,) =08.
time when it paid|the first month bill in time)
P(A/E;)=P(Customer paying the second
and
month's bill in time when it is not paid the first
month's bill in time) =04.
2 P(Customer paying the second month's bill in time)
-P(A) =P(E,)-P(A/E)+P(Ez)-P(A/Ez)
=07x08+03 ×04=056 +012 068
Or
P(Customer paying first month's bill in time when it
is found that customer has paid the second month's Q1
bill in time)
= P(E}/A) = P(E;)-P(A
P(A)
/E,) 0.7x08
0.68
0.56
=0.82.
068