Projected Future Changes and Risks
Continued greenhouse gas emissions under current policies would likely lead to warming of 2.5 to 3
degrees Celsius or more by 2100, with substantially greater warming possible if emissions accelerate.
This level of warming would transform Earth's climate system profoundly, creating conditions unlike
anything human civilization has experienced. Regional temperature increases would exceed global
averages in many land areas, particularly at high latitudes and in subtropical regions. Some currently
densely populated areas could experience temperatures exceeding human physiological tolerance
during portions of the year.
Sea level rise could reach one meter or more by 2100, with several meters possible over coming
centuries as ice sheets respond to warming already in the system. Coastal megacities, small island
nations, and extensive low-lying areas face increasing flood risks, saltwater intrusion into freshwater
resources, and eventual permanent inundation. Hundreds of millions of people living in coastal zones
would face displacement, creating humanitarian crises and potentially triggering conflicts over
resources and territory.
Water resource stress would intensify in many regions already facing scarcity. Changes in snowpack,
glacier melt timing, and rainfall patterns would alter river flows that billions depend upon for drinking
water, agriculture, and hydropower. Droughts are projected to become more frequent, longer lasting,
and more severe in many subtropical and mid-latitude regions. Conversely, some higher latitude and
tropical regions may experience increased water availability, though infrastructure and institutions
may struggle to manage these changes.
Agricultural systems face multiple climate-related stresses, including temperature increases beyond
crop tolerance limits, changing precipitation patterns, increased pest and disease pressure, and
extreme weather events. While some regions may see productivity gains from longer growing seasons
and carbon dioxide fertilization effects, many currently productive agricultural areas, particularly in
the tropics and subtropics, would experience yield declines. Food security risks increase as production
becomes more variable and climate change exacerbates existing inequalities in food access.
Human health impacts extend beyond direct heat-related illness and death to include expanded
ranges for disease vectors like mosquitoes, deteriorated air quality from increased wildfires and
ozone formation, mental health consequences of climate-related disasters and displacement, and
reduced nutritional quality of some crops under elevated carbon dioxide. Vulnerable populations,
including children, elderly individuals, those with pre-existing conditions, and people in poverty, face
disproportionate risks.
Ecosystem transformations could see forests transition to grasslands, coral reefs degrade irreversibly,
and arctic tundra give way to shrublands. Biodiversity loss would accelerate as species fail to adapt or
migrate fast enough, with extinction rates potentially reaching levels comparable to past mass
extinctions. The loss of ecosystem services like pollination, water filtration, carbon storage, and
coastal protection would undermine human well-being and economic systems.
Tipping points in the climate system represent particularly concerning risks. These are thresholds
beyond which relatively small additional warming triggers large, potentially irreversible changes.
Possible tipping points include collapse of major ice sheets, disruption of ocean circulation patterns
like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, dieback of tropical rainforests, and abrupt
permafrost thaw releasing vast quantities of greenhouse gases. Cascading tipping points, where one
triggers others, could lead to runaway warming beyond any possibility of human control.
Mitigation Strategies and Pathways
Limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, targets established in the Paris Agreement, requires
rapid, deep, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving these goals demands
reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century, along with substantial reductions in other
greenhouse gases. The remaining carbon budget, the total amount of carbon dioxide that can be
emitted while staying below temperature targets, is limited and shrinking rapidly. Every year of
delayed action makes the transition more difficult and expensive.
Transitioning energy systems from fossil fuels to renewable sources represents the most critical
mitigation priority. Solar and wind power have become cost-competitive with or cheaper than fossil
alternatives in many markets, and their deployment is accelerating. Battery storage, pumped hydro,
and other storage technologies are addressing intermittency challenges. Electrifying transportation,
heating, and industrial processes enables these sectors to decarbonize as electricity generation
becomes cleaner. Nuclear power, while controversial, provides low-carbon baseload electricity.
Hydrogen produced from renewable electricity may enable decarbonization of heavy industry and
long-distance transport.
Energy efficiency improvements can substantially reduce emissions while often saving money.
Buildings account for significant energy consumption and emissions, and better insulation, efficient
appliances, and smart controls can cut energy use dramatically. Industrial processes can be optimized,
and circular economy approaches that emphasize reuse and recycling reduce energy-intensive
production of virgin materials. Transportation efficiency gains through vehicle technology
improvements, modal shifts to public transit and cycling, and urban planning that reduces travel
needs all contribute to emissions reductions.
Land use changes, particularly ending deforestation and restoring degraded lands, provide significant
mitigation potential while delivering co-benefits for biodiversity and communities. Forests store vast
amounts of carbon, and protecting existing forests prevents emissions while maintaining ecosystem
services. Reforestation and afforestation, planting trees where forests existed previously or creating
new forests, can sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. Sustainable agricultural practices, including
improved crop varieties, optimized fertilizer use, and agroforestry, can reduce emissions while
maintaining food production.
Carbon capture and storage technologies aim to prevent carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion
or industrial processes from entering the atmosphere by capturing it and storing it permanently
underground. Direct air capture systems remove carbon dioxide directly from ambient air, enabling
removal of historical emissions. While these technologies remain expensive and energy-intensive,
they may prove necessary for addressing emissions from sectors that are particularly difficult to
decarbonize and for achieving net-negative emissions to reverse some warming.
Reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases offers important near-term climate benefits.
Methane reductions from agriculture, waste management, and fossil fuel production can slow
warming significantly, as methane is much more potent than carbon dioxide despite its shorter
atmospheric lifetime. Reducing hydrofluorocarbons used in refrigeration and air conditioning
prevents emissions of extremely potent greenhouse gases. Addressing nitrous oxide emissions from
agriculture requires improving fertilizer management and developing less emission-intensive
practices.
Economic instruments, including carbon pricing through taxes or cap-and-trade systems, create
financial incentives for emissions reductions. By internalizing climate costs into prices, these
mechanisms encourage businesses and consumers to choose lower-emission alternatives. Revenue
from carbon pricing can fund clean energy investments, assist affected workers and communities, or
be returned to citizens as dividends. Regulatory approaches, including efficiency standards, renewable
energy mandates, and restrictions on high-emission activities, can drive emissions reductions even
where carbon pricing faces political obstacles.
Adaptation Strategies and Resilience
Even with aggressive mitigation efforts, some degree of climate change is now inevitable due to
historical emissions and climate system inertia. Adaptation strategies help societies cope with
unavoidable impacts, reduce vulnerabilities, and take advantage of any opportunities that changes
may present. Effective adaptation requires anticipating future conditions rather than simply
responding to past patterns, and it must be tailored to local contexts, as climate impacts vary
substantially by region.
Infrastructure resilience involves designing and retrofitting buildings, transportation systems, energy
grids, and water systems to withstand climate-related stresses. This includes elevating structures in
flood-prone areas, reinforcing buildings against extreme weather, ensuring power grids can handle
temperature extremes, and developing water storage and management systems that can cope with
changing precipitation patterns. Green infrastructure, such as urban forests, wetlands, and permeable
surfaces, can complement traditional gray infrastructure by managing stormwater, reducing heat
island effects, and providing ecosystem services.
Agricultural adaptation strategies include developing crop varieties tolerant to heat, drought, and
salinity, adjusting planting dates and crop choices to match changing conditions, improving irrigation
efficiency, and diversifying farming systems to reduce vulnerability to climate variability. Traditional
knowledge from indigenous and local communities often contains valuable adaptation insights
developed through experience with environmental variability. Livestock management may need to
shift to more heat-tolerant breeds and adjust grazing practices to account for changing vegetation
patterns.