Interval Estimation Exercises in Statistics
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ScribdTranslationsUNIVERSITY OF THE VALLEY OF MEXICO
Inferential Statistics
ACTIVITY 4
Exercises on Interval Estimation II
Individual
Manuel Amador Hernandez
Professor
Ezequiel Hernandez Becerra
Date
August 8, 2022
Exercises on Interval Estimation II
Based on the material consulted in the unit, solve the exercises that are proposed.
about the following topics:
Estimation of the interval of a population proportion
Applications
1. Voting intention. A random sample of 985 "probable" voters, that is, those who
they will probably vote in the next election, they were surveyed during a marathon
telephone call made by the Republican Party. Of them, 592 indicated that they had the
intention to vote for the Republican candidate. Construct a confidence interval of
90% for p the proportion of likely voters in the population who intend
to vote for the Republican candidate. Based on this information, can it be concluded
that the candidate will win the election?
= 985
x = 592
= 90%
= 0.1
⁄ 2= 0.05
Hwae
́ = ⁄ n → 0.60101523
q = 1 - P ́→ 0.39898477
= √((P *́ q)/n) → 0.01560281
⁄ 2 → 1.64485363
́ ± ⁄ 2 √ ((P ∗ ́ )/ ) → . ± .
í = .
í = .
ó
between 57% and 62%
[Link] sentiment. Many public agencies conduct surveys.
to determine consumers' sentiment about the economy. For example,
the Office of Research in Economics and Business of the University of Florida U.S.A.
conducts quarterly surveys to assess consumer sentiment
in the state. Suppose the office takes a sample of 484 consumers and
only 157 feel optimistic about the economy in the state.
Estimate the proportion of all consumers in Florida who feel optimistic.
through a 90% confidence interval. Based on the interval, can the office
To infer that in Florida a minority of consumers feel optimistic?
157
= 0.32438
484
R( 1− ) ( 0.32438 )(0.675619 )
á == 0.02128
484
The value of Z for a 90% confidence interval is the value that contains the area of
α/2 = 0.05 in the upper tail of the Z distribution, that is, we are looking for a z that gives us
0.95.
0.051.645
So the confidence interval that represents the proportion of all the
Florida consumers who feel optimistic about the state's economy are:
0.32438 ± (1.645) (0.02128) = 0.32438 ± 0.035
Límite Superior = 0.35038
Límite Inferior = 0.28938
3. Same-sex marriages. The results of a Gallup survey in 2017
about the opinions on same-sex marriages showed that from
n 1011 adults, 64% thought that these marriages should be legal, 34%
I thought they should not be valid and 2% did not express their opinion. The survey reported
a margin of error of 4%
a. Build a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of adults that
They think that these marriages should be valid
Between 60% and 68% of adults are expected to think that these marriages
they should be valid.
2
(1− )̂
= 2
(1.65)2 (0 - 64)(1 - 0.64)
=
(0.04)2
n = 392 tameños of the muestrea.
0.64 (1-0.64 ) 0.64 (1-0.64 )
0.04 − 1.65 √ ≤ ≤ √
392 392
0.6 ≤ ρ ≤ 0.68
b. Build a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of adults who
They think that these marriages should not be valid.
2
̂(1 − ̂ )
= 2
(1.65)2 (0.34)(1 - 0.34)
=
(0.04)2
n = 382 Tamano de la muestra
0.34 (1- 0.34 ) 0.34 (1-0.34 )
0.34 − 1.65 √ ≤ ≤ √
382 382
0.30 ≤ ρ ≤ 0.38
4. Possession of firearms. The Harvard University School of Public Health
conducted a survey to determine the size and composition of the stocks of
firearms in private possession in the United States. In a representative survey
home telephone, of 2,770 adults surveyed, 26% reported that they owned at least
a firearm. Researchers want to estimate the true percentage of adults
in the United States that own at least one firearm.
a. Identify the population of interest
Adults in the United States.
b. Identify the parameter of interest
Adults who own at least one firearm.
c. Obtain an estimate of the population parameter
The estimation of the population parameter, here we talk about the mean. In our
26% = 0.26 of adults reported having at least one weapon.
fire. Since we have 2770 adults, approximately 270 reported having the
less a firearm.
d. Construct a 99% confidence interval around your estimate
= 0.26
(
P1− ) ( 0.26 )( 0.74 )
á == 0.008
2770
The value of Z for a 99% confidence interval is the value that contains the
area of α/2 = 0.005 in the upper tail of the Z distribution, that is, we are looking for a
that gives us 0.995.
0.0053.29
Then the confidence interval is:
0.26 ± (3.29) (0.008) = 0.26 ± 0.02632
Límite Superior = 0.28632
Límite Inferior = 0.23368
e. Interpret the interval practically
It is interpreted as follows, the percentage of adults in the United States
that probably have at least one firearm is between the
23.368% and 28.632%.
5. (See SPRINT database.) Speed training in American football.
The Sport Journal (Winter 2004) conducted a study on the effectiveness of
a training program to improve the speed of soccer players
high school level American. The decrease in the times in which the players
they complete 40 flat yards (time before training minus time after the
training) for 38 players appears in the SPRINT file. The performance of the
Athletes are classified as 'Improved' if they improved their time and as 'Not Improved' in case
opposite.
a. Find an estimate of the true proportion of all players
high school American football in the United States that improved their time
of career after participating in the training program.
To obtain the true estimate we must use the attached file in the
activity and calculate how many of the 38 players managed their time. So
once the file was reviewed, we see that 33 out of 38 players improved their
time. So then.
33
̂= ̌ 0.8421
=∪.∪=
38
The true estimate is 86.8421%
b. Convert the estimate from part a) into a 95% confidence interval.
practical interpretation of the result.
33
= 0.8421
38
R( 1− ) ( 0.868421 )(0.131579 )
á == 0.05483
38
The value of Z for a 95% confidence interval is the value that contains the
area α/2 = 0.025 in the upper tail of the Z distribution, that is, we are looking for a
which gives us 0.975.
0.051.96
So the confidence interval is:
0.868421 ± (1.96) (0.05483) = 0.868421 ± 0.10747
Límite Superior = 0.975891
Límite Inferior = 0.760951
Conclusion:
In conclusion, interval estimation consists of establishing the interval of values.
where it is more likely to find the sought parameter. The problem arises when
the population parameter is unknown and due to this we establish the interval
according to an estimate, by repeating the sampling a considerable number of times and
we locate an interval around each element of the sample we see how the parameter
little by little it is settling within each confidence interval. In these
considerations the tools provided by Inferential Statistics are of great
utility for the development of activities such as: Polls on voting trends, Analysis of
Market or Medical Epidemiology.
References
Devore, J. L. (2016).Probabilidad y estadistica para ingenieria y ciencias(9 ed.). Cengage
Learning. Retrieved from [Link]
McClave, J., & Sincich, T. (2014). Statistics (12 ed.). Harlow: Pearson.
Mendenhall, W. I., Beaver, R. J., & Beaver, B. M. (2015). Introduction to Probability and
Statistics (14th ed.). Mexico City: CENGAGE Learning.
Sweeney, D. J., Anderson, D. R., & Williams, T. (2011). Statistics for Business and
economy (11 ed.). Cengage Learning. Retrieved from
[Link]