Abstract

Neural networks have been defined as mathematical constructs that have

the ability to emulate the numerous processes individuals utilize to recognize
patterns, learn tasks and solve problems. For a long time, Neural networks
have been characterized in terms of their number and types of connections
specifically between the person and processing elements known as neurons
and the learning rules utilized when data is presented to the network.
Therefore, the basis of this paper is to critically look at the concept of neural
networks and the way they are employed in the decision-making process.

As a result, the paper will answer questions such as what are Neural
networks, how do they work, how useful are neural networks in solving
problems, and what current evidence exists to give an understanding of the
scientific and technical advancement of Neural networks? The paper, in
providing answers to these questions, will heavily rely on and utilize theories
of March, Simon and Rappaport from the Breath component while at the
same time utilizing the theory of integration of neural networks. Hence, the
overall aim of the discussion will be to find out the advantages of neural
networks in decision-making.

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Introduction

“A neural network is a powerful data modeling tool that can capture and
represent complex input/output relationships” (Neural Topics, 2010, p.1). In
creating and developing neural network technology, the overriding
motivation originated from the aspiration to grow an artificial system that
possesses the ability to execute ‘intelligent’ responsibilities that are in one
way similar to those done by the human brain. Further, it was identified that
neural networks have the “ability to represent linear and non-linear
relationships equally and their capacity to learn these relationships straight
from the data modeled” (Neural Topics, 2010, p.1).

In essence, neural networks resemble brains whereby they have been

perceived to be good at analyzing information and recognizing patterns that
are complex to delineate accurately. In addition, Neural networks are trained
where thousands of examples are used and a learning algorithm which has
the potential to change the strength of the connections in the network with
objective of giving it an appropriate output value which in large measures it
depends on the input values (Neural Topics, 2010, p.1).

Scientists have found out that the human brain is an exceptionally exciting
information processor, though it is incapable of working faster than the
ordinary computer. Many of these researchers in artificial intelligence have
investigated the organization of the brain as a model for constructing
intelligent apparatus. According to George Luger, the constructed neural
models of intelligence generally focus on the ability of the brain to adjust to
the world in which it is placed through the process of modifying the
associations between the individual neurons. In addition, “rather than
representing knowledge in explicit logical sentences, they capture it
implicitly, as a property of patterns of relationships” (Neural Topics, 2010,
p.1).

Moreover, according to InformationWeek article of 2005, neural networks

unlike other discoveries in artificial intelligence, have limited ability to
manipulate and relate symbols about concepts in the world, instead, neural
networks function in accordance to the lists of numbers that represent
numerous problems and their likely solutions (cited in Neural Topics, 2010,
p.1). At the same time, “the artificial neurons have the capacity to learn
relationships based on a training set of solutions and eventually become
stacked into ‘layers’ so that output of one neural network could form the
input of another” (Neural Topics, 2010, p.1).

Decision-making

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In recent times, there has been huge evidence indicating that interest has
grown specifically in developing capable decision systems within the field of
Artificial Intelligence (AI). Decision-making can be defined as the process that
involves the ability to choose some course of action among the various
alternatives available (Zopounidis and Pardalos, 1998). In addition, decision-
making is affected by numerous factors that may include the volume of data
involved and the tradeoffs that key people involved in decision-making have
to face in real life practical situations.

Observing the process, one discovers that in almost all circumstances

decision problems possess multiple and contradictory criteria for judging the
possible alternatives. As a fact, the major objective of the decision-maker is
to fulfill his or her contradictory goals while at the same time possibly
satisfying the constraints of the system (Zopounidis and Pardalos, 1998). As
a result, the scientific community in the past decades has been involved in
intensive discovery and development of systems that can perform decision
making instead of humans. Interest has led scientists to develop a learning
system known as neural networks.

For instance, the conviction in the field is that a class of problems involving
decision-making relates to the interpretation of data based on a specific set
of rules, and in such a case, the neural network learns the rules governing
the decision-making by experiments. Further, in another class of problems,
the simulation of systems can facilitate decision-making with complicated
nonlinear dynamics by neural networks (Zopounidis and Pardalos, 1998).

Theories of Neural Networks

One of the vital existing problems in Artificial Intelligence has been identified
as, how to enable computers to draw logical conclusions from real and
existing facts which are largely known as the process of reasoning (Levy,
2006). For instance, to prove a theorem in logic or to solve a particular
problem that needs the use of logic, a proof is always needed, whereby a
proof constitutes a sequence of expressions where every expression in the
sequence is either one of the already accepted theorems or axioms or an
expression that can be found from one or two of the already accepted
theorems or axioms whereby one needs to apply the rules of inference (Levy,
2006).

The Logic Theory Machine

Allen Newell, Herbert Simon, and John Show developed this theory in 1956;
the theory outlines the proofs to theorems in a form of logic known as the
propositional calculus. Logic theory machine uses the axioms and inference
rules that were proposed by Russell and Whitehead, which implies that in
order to function on mathematical theorems that have been approved, it is
important to generate new theorems.

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For instance, the theory postulate that, when there is an expression to be

proved, five-set of axioms are established, and using the theory, three
inference rules are used repeatedly until they produce the desired
mathematical expression which in this case is the one to be proved. As such,
a computer can be given an infinite amount of time and memory, while the
theory can be used to prove any provable theorem and solve any solvable
problem (Levy, 2006).

In this case, the computer constructs a program, which eventually constructs

subsequent possible proofs in a systematic manner but in a random order,
checking each time to eliminate duplicate attempts and to see if the target
theorem has been proved. To make the theory more efficient, radical
improvements in the possible proofs of theorems and solutions to problems
have been made through developed methods of substitution, detachment
and chaining (Levy, 2006).

Valence Instrumentality-Expectancy (VIE) Theory

This theory postulate that individual’s actions and choices are legitimately
associated to the preferences and sentimental reactions they possess for
specific expectations (valences), in addition to the individual’s beliefs about
whether particular actions results to specific outcomes or performance level
(expectancies) and the individual’s perception of the relationship existing
between primary and secondary outcomes (instrumentalities). In most
occasions, people are believed to evaluate their valences, instrumentalities,
and expectancies knowingly when making decisions. Further, the belief is
that the same people act in a subjectively optimal way especially when the
factors have been considered (Lord, Hanges, and Godfrey, 2003).

This theory and ideas influenced decision-making research activities that

influence some aspects of organization such as leadership, compensation
and turnover (Lord, Hanges, and Godfrey, 2003). Unfortunately, the
discovery on this model indicated that it is inconsistent with the
informational and processing demands of other optimization models. This
has led to improvement of the model where the belief is that the manifested
inconsistent can be resolved by assuming that computations implied by
optimization models are generally performed automatically by neural
networks. The realization in accordance to this conviction is that neural
networks are apposite computational devices that are effective in
implementing procedures of VIE (Lord, Hanges and Godfrey, 2003).

Neural Networks and Decision-making

Paul Thagard and Brandon Wagar note that some individuals have the
tendency to make decisions by flipping a coin (Wagar and Thagard, 2004
cited in Thagard and Kroon, 2006, p.87). To such individuals, the issue is not
to make the decision indicated by the flip but to see how they feel about the
choice that the coin flips (Wagar and Thagard, 2004 cited in Thagard and
Kroon, 2006). To the authors, the act of flipping a coin has evolved as an
effective way to discover the individual’s emotional reactions to numerous
alternatives and point out the emotional weight they connect to such
decisions.

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As such, there exists wide consensus in the field of cognitive science that
emotions constitute an integral part of decision-making (Wagar and Thagard,
2004 cited in Thagard and Kroon, 2006). Today, there are artificial neural
network models of cognitive affective processing that make use of simplified
neurons and in the process, they have neglected neuroanatomical
information about how different parts of the brain contribute to decision
making.

The authors present a new computational model known as GAGE that has
more neural characteristics where it organizes neurons into anatomically
recognized groups that correspond to vital brain areas including
ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), the hippocampus and the amygdale
(Wagar and Thagard, 2004 cited in Thagard and Kroon, 2006). The authors
identified further the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) as another vital component
that functions to incorporate “cognitive information from the ventromedial
prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus with emotional information from the
amygdala” (Wagar and Thagard, 2004 cited in Thagard and Kroon, 2006).

This model was implemented in a computer program that successfully

simulates two types of cognitive-affective integration: people’s performance
on the Iowa Gambling Task and the integration of physiological arousal and
cognition in determining emotional states (Wagar and Thagard, 2004 cited in
Thagard and Kroon, 2006).

The VMPFC is seen to be involved in the production of somatic markers,

which in essence are the feelings, or emotional reactions that are largely
connected through experience with the likelihood of long-term outcomes of
specific responses to a particular given situation. Accordingly, the hypothesis
postulates that sensory representations of particular response to the current
situation activate knowledge tie in previous emotional experience and the
resultant concealed emotional signals operate as biases that have the ability
to influence the mechanisms responsible for higher-level cognitive processes.
These somatic markers have been useful in decision making processes where
they narrow the number of feasible behavioral alternatives, while at the
same time allowing the organism to reason according to the long-term
predicted outcomes of its actions (Wagar and Thagard, 2004 cited in Thagard
and Kroon, 2006).

On his part, Walter Bischof establishes that decision making originates from
a given set of patterns each described by a set of continuous attributes, and
in such case, linear discriminant functions are employed to separate the
patterns by a linear decision boundary (Bischof, 2004). In circumstances
where multiple pattern classes exist, the feature space must be divided into
multiple partitions where each is associated with a single class; thus, using
discriminant functions, this is achieved in several ways (Bischof, 2004).

In current neural networks, specifically multi-layered perceptions have

become accepted for pattern learning and as such, neural networks can be
compared in their performance to discriminant functions (Bischof, 2004). In
this pattern learning, patterns are represented by specific characteristic
features. The process consists of finding a partitioning of the feature space
such that each partition corresponds to a single pattern class, while pattern
classification is based on combinations of discriminant functions (Bischof,
2004). Further, the author notes how the decision tree has become popular
in decision-making process.

The decision tree method aims at ordering the patterns in a tree where each
tree node specifies a test of some attribute and the process of moving from
the tree to a leaf represents a hierarchically ordered sequence of decisions
for classifying the patterns (Bischof, 2004).

Application: the Use of Complementary Decision Learning System

(CDMS)

Neural network shows characteristics such as human-like decision-making

process and possesses steps that resemble human decision-making; thus,
CDMS has been developed base on fuzzy neural networks (Jain and Lim,
2010). First, it can be seen that human decision-making process involves
lateral inhibition between reward and punishment stimuli and isolation of
reward and punishment knowledge; hence, CDMS is implemented with
complimentary learning. CDMS exhibit similar rules as those of
neurobiological decision-making where it allows the reward rules to fire and
inhibit the punishment rules.
However, when the punishment-related stimulus is presented, rules
associated to punishment will be activated and in tandem rules related to
rewards are inhibited (Jain and Lim, 2010). In functioning, once the CDMS has
been decided, the firing strength of the winning rule is utilized to find out the
action to be taken. After the CDMS has outputted the action, the reward
system evaluates whether the decision made brings about reward or
punishment, in the same measure the reward system learns to predict the
outcome of CDMS decision.

In order to function effectively, the CDMS is equipped with human-like

reasoning process and mapped onto a hypothetico-deductive fuzzy scheme
referred to as Analogical Approximate Reasoning Schemes (AARS). This is
one of the ways physicians make decisions and when the mapping is done,
“it not only formalizes the operation of CDMS, but also equips CDMS with
decision-making process analogous especially to the physician” (Jain and
Lim, 2010). The CDMS hence demonstrate a reasoning process similar to that
of human.

Advantages of Neural Networks in Decision-making

Specifically, employing artificial neural networks in decision-making has been

widely believed to have the potential to solve the numerous forecasting and
decision modeling problems (Hill, Marquez, O’Connor and Nemus, 1993). For
instance, neural networks are able to model any kind of parametric or non-
parametric process at a fast rate and automatically alter the input data (Hill,
Marquez, O’Connor and Remus, 1993). Second, the artificial neural networks
have universal function approximators for even non-linear functions and they
have the ability to estimate piece-wise approximations of functions.

Third, artificial neural networks have the ability to deal with intricate data in
a more successful way when compared to regression analysis (Anagnostou,
Remzi, and Djavan, 2003). In addition, neural networks have been described
as the best alternatives to convectional techniques, which in most ways are
limited by strict assumptions of normality, linearity, and variable
independence. Therefore, neural networks have the ability to capture
numerous kinds of relationships since they allow the person using them to
swiftly and easily model phenomena which otherwise may have been
extremely intricate or impossible to explain.

According to Chris Stergiou, neural networks are generally useful since they
have ability to develop meaning from problematical data while at the same
time being able to extract patterns and identify trends that appear too
intricate to be noticed by human or other different computer methods. In
summary, the author notes the following as the main advantages of neural
networks: they largely demonstrate: “adaptive learning, self-organization,
real time operation, and fault tolerance via redundant information coding”
(Stergiou, n.d, p.1).

Conclusion

Neural network is a fast growing field and its relevance is being

demonstrated in numerous fields. The major importance of the concept has
widely being utilized in decision-making processes. For instance, today there
is a refined computational intelligence technique that is aiding the process of
decision making especially under uncertain conditions through numerous
means such as coordinating data delivery, analyzing data trends, providing
forecasts, ensuring data consistency, quantifying uncertainty, anticipating
the user’s data needs, providing information to the user in the most
appropriate forms and suggesting courses of actions.

In such a way, neural networks are graduating as techniques that have the
ability to effectively describe complex behavior that is difficult to describe
mathematically using the convectional methods. Nevertheless, with the
discovery of some limitations of the technique, more advancement to
improve the technique is necessary to ensure effectiveness and efficiency of
the technique especially in relation to the outcomes.

References

Anagnostou, T., Remzi, M. and Djavan, B. (2003). Artificial Neural Networks

for Decision-Making in Urologic Oncology. Austria, University of Vienna. Web.

Bischof, W. F. (2004). Visual Learning: An Overview. Canada, University of

Alberta. Web.

Hill, T., Marquez, L., O’Connor, M. and Remus, W. (1993). Artificial Neural
Network models for forecasting and decision-making. Web.

Jain, L. C., and Lim, C. P. (2010). Handbook on Decision Making: Techniques

and Applications. Berlin, Springer. Web.

Levy, D. N. L. (2006). Robots unlimited: life in a virtual age. MA, AK Peters

Ltd. Web.

Lord, R. G., Hanges, P. J. and Godfrey, E. G. (2003). Integrating neural

networks into decision-making and motivational theory: Rethinking VIE
theory. Canadian Psychology. Web.
Neural Topics. (2010). Neural Networks: Learning by Training a Network or
Connectionist System. Web.

Stergiou, C. (N.d). What is a Neural Network? Web.

Wagar, B. and Thagard, P. (2006). Spiking Phineas Gage: A

Neurocomputational Theory of Cognitive-Affective Integration in Decision
Making in Thagard, P. and, Kroon, F. (2006). Hot thought: mechanisms and
applications of emotional cognition. MA, MIT Press. Web.

Zopounidis, C. and Pardalos, P. M. (1998). Managing in uncertainty: theory

and practice. MA, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Web.

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