11

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
Many people suffer from aviophobia, the fear of flying. However, we are more likely to be
involved in a car accident than a plane crash. There is a 1-in-5500 chance of being killed
on the road compared to 1-in-3 million in the air. This is amazing when you consider that
each day worldwide there are 102 000 planes in the sky carrying over 24 million passengers
(that’s the population of Australia in the sky!). Why do you think there are so few plane
accidents compared to road accidents? And why are people more afraid of flying than
travelling in a car?

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 [Link]/TRAVELARIUM
Chapter outline Wordbank
certain Sure to happen; the opposite of
Working mathematically impossible
11.01 Sample spaces U F R C complementary event The ‘opposite’ event;
for example, the complementary event to
11.02 Probability U F R C
selecting an Ace from a deck of cards is not Quiz
11.03 The range of probability U F R C selecting an Ace Wordbank 11

11.04 Observed and expected U F R C equally likely To have exactly the same
frequencies chance of occurring; for example, when tossing a coin, heads or
tails are equally likely
11.05 Complementary events U F R C event A result involving one or more outcomes; for example,
the event of rolling an even number on a die contains the
3 outcomes {2, 4, 6}
expected frequency The expected number of times an event will
occur over repeated trials
outcome A single result from a situation or experiment; for
example, one outcome when rolling a die is to roll a 6
random Describes a situation in which every possible outcome
has an equal chance
sample space The set of all possible outcomes of a situation or
experiment

U = Understanding | F = Fluency | PS = Problem solving | R = Reasoning | C = Communicating

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 465

 Videos (4): 11.04 A page of spinners • Coins
probability • Dice probability •
11.01 Sample spaces Coin-toss experiment •
11.04 Experimental probability • Observed Experimental probabilities • Relative
and expected frequencies frequencies • Spinning chance •
11.05 Complementary events A page of spinners
11.05 Theoretical probabilities
Twig video (1): Language of maths Probability review
11.04 Probability: irrational fears Mind map Probability
PhET interactive (1): Puzzles (8):
11.04 Plinko probability 11.02 Spinner game • Theoretical
probabilities • Basic probability
Quizzes (5):
11.03 Greedy Pig game
• Wordbank 11
11.04 Experimental probability • Duelling
• SkillCheck 11 dice • Spinner game
• Mental skills 11 11.05 Complementary events
• Language of maths 11 Language of maths Probability crossword
• Test yourself 11
Spreadsheets (2):
Worksheets (14): 11.04 Die rolling simulator • Coin tossing
SkillCheck Chance cards • Describing simulator
probabilities
11.02 Probability problems • Games of Presentation (1):
chance 11.04 Theoretical probability

To access resources above, visit

[Link]/nelsonmindtap

In this chapter you will:

• list the outcomes of the sample space of a chance experiment
• use the sample space to calculate the probability of an event
• recognise that the range of probability is from 0 to 1
• compare the observed frequency of an event with its expected frequency
• solve problems involving complementary events

SkillCheck ANSWERS ON P. 602

1 Rate each event as being impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely or certain.
Choosing a pink ball from a bag of blue balls
Quiz
SkillCheck 11
a
b It will rain next month.
A coin shows tails when you toss it.
Worksheets
Chance cards
c
You obtain a driver’s licence tomorrow.
Describing
d
You will have your driver’s licence in 20 years’ time.
probabilities

e
f Rolling double 6s on a pair of dice

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 g You are over 10 years old.
h You draw a red card from a deck of playing cards.
i You will use a computer today.
j It will snow in your town tomorrow

Simplify each fraction.

2 8 27 15
2

10 18 30 80
a b c d

Convert each number to a decimal.

7 3
3
26% 70%
8 5
a b c d

Convert each number to a percentage.

3 1
4
0.6 0.31
4 20
a b c d
1
Is the chance of each event more than or less than ?
2
5
a You having another brother or sister one day
b You going overseas this year
c You being at school next Monday
d You being a parent in 20 years’ time
e You getting a good report for English this year
f Your home phone ringing today
a Draw an interval 15 cm long and use it to make a probability scale for the chances
from impossible to certain.
6

impossible even chance certain
likely

b On your scale, mark the position of each event described below.

A It will be hot tomorrow.
B The Sun will rise tomorrow.
C There will be floods in your town this year.
D There will be no car accidents in Sydney tomorrow.
E There are more than 5 people at your home at the same time today.
F Someone at school has a birthday today.
G It will rain tomorrow.
H The Tigers will win their next game.
I The next person to visit your classroom is male.
J Your favourite song comes on your radio station in the next hour.

Which term best describes the chance that the next baby born in Australia is a girl?
Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
7

A certain B definite C even chance D probable

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 467

 8 Convert each number to a simplified fraction.
a 0.35 b 0.2 c 48% d 6%

Evaluate each expression.

1 3 4
9
1− 1− 1−
6 4 10
a b c

11.01 Sample spaces

Probability is the branch of mathematics that studies the chances of different events occurring.
In any situation, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. For example, if a
coin is tossed, the sample space is {heads, tails}. If each outcome has an equal chance, then we
say that each outcome is equally likely.

Example 1
a Write the sample space for this spinner.
b How many outcomes are possible? blue red
c Is each outcome equally likely?
green yellow

Solution
a The sample space is {red, yellow, green, blue}.
There are 4 possible outcomes.
1
b
Each coloured region is equal in size ( of the circle), so each outcome is equally likely.
4
c

The language of probability

This table lists some important terms associated with probability, and how they apply to
Example 1.
Probability term In Example 1
An experiment (or chance experiment) is a Spinning a spinner
situation involving chance that leads to results
called outcomes.
A trial is one go or run of the experiment. One spin of the spinner
An outcome is the result of an experiment. The arrow landing on green
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. {red, yellow, green, blue}
An event is one or more outcomes of an The arrow landing on a ‘traffic light’ colour: ed,
experiment. yellow or green
In a random experiment, every possible outcome All spins on this spinner are random because every
has the same chance of occurring. colour has the same chance

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 Example 2
How many outcomes are in
the sample space when a die is
a

‘Die’ is the singular word

rolled?
for ‘dice’: one ‘die’,
Is each outcome equally likely?

[Link]/Vahe 3D
b 2 or more ‘dice’

11.01

Solution
a The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, so there are 6 possible outcomes.
Each outcome is equally likely, because each number has the same chance
of coming up.
b

Example 3
A jar contains 5 red, 3 green, 6 yellow and 2 blue lollies.
Taylor selects one lolly from the jar at random. ‘At random’ means that
Video

each lolly has an equal

Sample

chance of being chosen

spaces

a How many lollies are in the jar?

b How many outcomes are in the sample space for the colour of the lolly?
c Is each colour equally likely?

Solution
a Number of lollies = 5 + 3 + 6 + 2 = 16
b 4 outcomes {red, green, yellow, blue}
Each colour is not equally likely because there are different amounts of each colour.
Some colours occur more frequently and have higher chances of being chosen.
c

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 469

 EXERCISE 11.01 ANSWERS ON P. 602
Sample spaces UFRC

1 For each spinner, write down the sample space and count the number of possible
outcomes. R C
EXAMPLE
1

a b c

d e f

2 For each experiment, count the number of possible outcomes and state whether each
outcome is equally likely.
EXAMPLE
2

a Tossing a coin
b The result of a soccer game when Australia plays South Korea
c The first letter of a person’s name
d The sex of a baby
e The last digit of a phone number
f The result of a driving test

3 List the outcomes in each event.

a Rolling an odd number on a die
b Selecting a vowel from the letters of the alphabet
c Having a house number greater than 4 but less than 10
d Having a birthday in a month beginning with M
e Living in a state capital city
f Being in a primary school grade

4 This spinner is spun.

How many outcomes are possible?
C
EXAMPLE
3
a
b Is each outcome equally likely? Explain your answer.
c Which outcome is the most likely to occur?
d Which outcome is the least likely?

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 5 A money box contains 4 $2 coins, 3 $1 coins, 2 50c coins, 6 20c coins and 5 10c coins.
It is shaken and one coin falls out at random.
a How many coins are in the money box?
b List the outcomes in the sample space for the type of coin.
c Is each type of coin equally likely?
d Which type of coin is most likely to fall out?

6 The 52 cards in a standard deck of playing cards are shown below, divided evenly into
11.01

4 suits: hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades.

Hearts:

Diamonds:

Clubs:

Spades:

The cards are shuffled and one is taken out at random.

How many outcomes are in the sample space?
R

a
b Is each outcome equally likely?
c How many cards are in each suit?
d How many red cards are in the deck?
e How many 7s?
f How many black Kings?
g How many 8 of diamonds?
h How many cards with an even number?
i How many picture cards (J, K, Q)?
j How many red Aces?

7 A 3-digit number is to be formed from the digits 1, 2, 5. Which of the following answers
shows the sample space? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D. C
A {1, 2, 5} B {125}
C {125, 152, 215} D {125, 152, 215, 251, 512, 521}

8 This spinner is spun.

Write down the sample space of possible letters.
C

a
Is each letter equally likely?
A C
b
Which letter is most likely?
B
A
c A B

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 9 Daniel is holding these 12 playing cards.
Elvira picks a card without looking. C
a How many 5s are held in the 12 cards?
b List the sample space of possible numbers.
c Which number is Elvira most likely to pick?
d List the sample space of possible colours.
e Which colour is Elvira more likely to pick?
f List the sample space of possible suits.
g Which suit is Elvira least likely to pick?

11.02 Probability
We can calculate the chance or probability of an event occurring as a fraction, percentage or a
decimal.

Probability of an event
Worksheets
Probability

P(E) means ‘the probability of an event, E (occurring)’. If all possible outcomes are equally
problems

likely, then:
Games of
chance

number of favourable outcomes

total number of outcomes
Puzzles
Spinner game
P(E) =
number of outcomes matching E
or P ( E ) =
Theoretical

number of outcomes in the sample space

probabilities

A favourable outcome is one of the outcomes in the event that you want, whose probability
Basic

you are calculating.

probability

Example 4
A die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling:
a a5 b a7
c an odd number d a number less than 3

Solution
The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. There are 6 possible outcomes and each outcome is
equally likely.
1
P(5) = One chance in 6
6
a
0 No chance, because we cannot roll a 7 on a die
P(7) = = 0
6
b
3 1 3 odd numbers out of 6 {1, 3, 5}
P(odd) = =
6 2
c
2 1 2 numbers out of 6 {1 and 2}
P(less than 3) = =
6 3
d

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 Example 5
A jar of lollies contains 5 red, 3 green, 6 yellow and 2 blue lollies.
Taylor selects one lolly from the jar at random and notes its colour.
Calculate each probability below.
a P(yellow) b P(green or blue)
c P(traffic light colour), as a percentage d P(not red), as a decimal
11.02
Solution
Total number of lollies in the jar = 5 + 3 + 6 + 2 = 16
6 number of yellow lollies
P(yellow) =
16 total number of lollies
a

3
=
8
3+2 no. of green lollies + no. of blue lollies
P(green or blue) =
16 total number of lollies
b

5
=
16

c P(traffic light colour) = P(red or green or yellow)

5+3+6
=
16
14
=
16
14
= × 100% converting to a percentage
16

= 87.5%
d P(not red) = P(green or yellow or blue)
3+6+2
=
16
11
=
16
= 0.6875 converting to a decimal

EXERCISE 11.02 ANSWERS ON P. 602

Probability UFRC

List all the possible outcomes when a coin is tossed.

[Link]/hddigital

1 a
How many different outcomes are possible?
EXAMPLE
4
b
c What is the probability of getting a tail?
d Write the probability of getting a tail as a percentage.

2 A die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling:

a a4 b an even number c a 10
d a number greater than 1 e a prime number f a number less than 7

Foundation Standard Complex

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 473

 3 Copy each spinner and shade its regions so that the probability of spinning white is:
5 3
R

8 4
a b

EXAMPLE 4 For each spinner, calculate the probability of the pointer landing on red as a percentage.
5
a b c

d e f

5 A money box contains 4 $2 coins, 3 $1 coins, 2 50c coins, 6 20c coins and 5 10c coins.
It is shaken and one coin falls out at random. Calculate each probability:
a P(50c coin) b P($1 coin), as a decimal
c P(10c or 20c coin), as a percentage d P(not a 10c coin)
e P(gold coin), as a decimal f P(a coin under $1), as a percentage

6 A packet of jellybeans has 4 yellow, 3 red, 6 green and 3 black jellybeans remaining.
You take out one jellybean at random. What is the probability that it is not a red
jellybean? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
4 3 3 13
12 16 13 16
A B C D

7 A letter is selected at random from the alphabet. Find the probability that it is:
a M b R
c M or R d a vowel
e not a vowel f a letter before K in the alphabet

8 The needle on this spinner is spun.

1
Which colour has a probability of ?
3
1
a
Which colour has a probability closest to ?
4
1
b
Which colour has a probability of ?
6
c
d Which 3 colours have a combined probability of 50%?

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 9 A bag contains 6 white, 9 green and 5 blue marbles. Hannah takes
one from the bag at random. Which colour has a probability of: R
3
0.25? 45%? ?
10
a b c

10 A computer generates a random number from 1 to 10. Find:

a P(square number) b P(number less than 4), as a decimal
c P(prime number), as a percentage d P(factor of 10)
P(number greater than 6), as a decimal f P(5 or 7), as a percentage
11.02
e

11 What is the probability that a baby is born on a weekday rather than a weekend, if each
day is equally likely?

12 Design a spinner that would produce these probabilities: R

1 1
P(red) = , P(yellow) = 24%,   P(blue) = , P(black) = 20%.
8 3
13 Ryan bought 6 raffle tickets at the school fete. If a total of 800 tickets was sold, what is
the probability that Ryan wins first prize? Express your answer:
a as a fraction b as a decimal

14 Your maths teacher calls out a name randomly from your class roll. What is the
probability that it is:
a your name? b a girl’s name?
c someone aged 12? d someone with blond hair?

15 A deck of 52 playing cards is shuffled and one is taken out at random.

Find the probability that it is:
a a red card b a club card c the King of spades
d a Queen e a card with an odd number
f a black picture card g a red 7 h a4
You may refer to the diagram of playing cards on page 471.

16 What is the probability that a person randomly chosen has a birthday in a month
beginning with the letter J? Select A, B, C or D.
1 1 1 1
12 6 4 3
A B C D

17 There are 16 teams in a football competition. Paula, therefore, believes that her favourite
1
team, The Bulldogs, has a probability of of winning the competition. Discuss with
16
your friends whether Paula is correct and write your answer, giving reasons. R C

18 Karen had a box of 24 ice blocks. The box had the same number of lemon, orange and
strawberry blocks. If she chose one ice block at random, what was the chance that it was
either a strawberry or an orange? Select A, B, C or D. R
1 1 1 2
12 24 3 3
A B C D

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9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 475

 19 Luca has the following cards with First Nations symbols on them. He chooses 2 cards at
random.

BOOMERANG BOOMERANG HONEY ANT WOMAN

a List all possible outcomes.

b What is the probability of choosing
i 2 boomerang cards? ii one boomerang card and a honey ant card?
iii no boomerang cards?
20 A student council is made up of a number of boys and girls. One member of council is
selected at random to attend the regional conference. How many boys and girls could
5
there be in the council if the probability of selecting a boy is ? R
8
21 An esky contains 8 cans of lemonade, 5 cans of orange drink and 2 cans of lime drink.
How many cans of cola must be added so that the probability of randomly selecting a
can of: R
lemonade is 50%? orange drink is 0.25?
1 2
a b
lime drink is ? cola is ?
12 5
c d

22 A fish tank has 8 red and 14 yellow fish.

One fish is randomly selected from the tank.
Write the probability that the fish is yellow
R

as a decimal, correct to 2 decimal places.

a

Write the probability that the fish is red as a

percentage.
b

How many red fish must be removed from the tank to make the
probability of selecting a red fish 0.3?
c

23 a What is the lowest probability value? Name an event that could have this value.
What is the highest probability value? Name an event that could have
this value. R C
b

2
24 This spinner is spun twice and the 2 numbers that come up
1 3
are added. Which of these totals has the lowest chance of
occurring? Select A, B, C or D. R
9 8 7 6 6 4
5
A B C D

25 A box has 3 pens coloured red and blue. Owen randomly chooses a pen and it is blue. There are
now 2 remaining pens in the box. What is the probability that the second pen Owen chooses
1
will be red? (Be careful: the answer is not . List all the different possible outcomes.) R C
2

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 Did you know?
Car insurance
Insurance is a financial scheme that offers money in times of loss or damage. People can
insure their cars against damage or theft. You pay an amount each month or year, and if the
loss or damage happens, the insurance company pays you to repair any damage or replace
your car.
11.03

[Link]/Dr. Norbert Lange

Insurance was invented in ancient Babylon around 3000 bce, when voyagers and traders
insured their ships against damage or loss. Modern mathematicians working for insurance
companies use the statistics of past accidents to predict the chances of future losses. They
have found some interesting probabilities involving car accidents.
Event Chance
Car runs off the road 1 chance in 30
Driver is male 18 chances out of 25
Involves driver fatigue 1 chance in 5
Involves speeding 31 chances out of 100
Involves alcohol 19 chances in 100
Male driver aged 25 to 34 17 chances out of 50

An actuary works in the insurance industry. Find out what an actuary does.

The range of probability 11.03

Because probability is a fraction:
number of favourable outcomes
total number of outcomes
P(E) =

its value must range from 0 to 1, or as a percentage, from 0% to 100%.

no way not likely even chance almost definitely must
happen

0 1 1
impossible 2 certain

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 477

 The range of probability
• The probability of an impossible event is 0.
• The probability of a certain event is 1.
• The probability of any event ranges from 0 to 1.

A probability close to 1 indicates an event that is very likely or probable.

A probability close to zero indicates an event that is very unlikely or improbable.

Example 6
5 cards numbered 11, 5, 9, 7 and 3 are shuffled and Jo chooses one at random.
Find the probability that the number chosen is:
a divisible by 3 b less than 12
c a factor of 45 d even

Solution
2
P(divisible by 3) = 2 numbers {9, 3}
5
a
5
P(less than 12) = = 1 All 5 numbers are less than 12: a certain event.
5
b
3
P(a factor of 45) = 3 numbers {5, 9, 3}
5
c
0 None are even: an impossible event
P(even) = = 0
d
5

EXERCISE 11.03 ANSWERS ON P. 603

Range of probabilities UFRC

1 If a die is rolled, find the probability of rolling:

a5 an 8 a factor of 12
EXAMPLE
6
a b c
d a prime number e a number less than 7 f a multiple of 3
2 One letter is selected at random from the word EVACUATION. Find the percentage
probability that it is:
a V b A c X d a vowel
3 Simon is holding these 12 playing cards.
Joshua picks a card without looking.
Find the probability that it:
a is red
b shows an even number
c is a picture card
d has the number 7
e is a hearts card
f not an Ace

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 4 A basketball team captain is to be chosen randomly from 4 players, Carl, Lee, Su and
Daniela. What is the probability that the captain chosen is:
a Daniela? b Su? c Manjeet?
5 Match each probability value to its description.
1
0 90% 1
C

2
a b c d
3
0.1 0.6 2%
4
e f g h
cannot happen better than average chance
11.03
A B
C even chance D good chance
E very likely F almost impossible
G slim chance H must happen
6 A coin falls out of a piggy bank containing 4 5c, 5 10c, 6 20c and 3 $1 coins.
Find the probability that it is:
a a 5c coin b a $1 coin c a 50c coin
d a 10c or 20c coin e not a $1 coin f not a 20c coin

7 A traffic light shows red for 59 seconds, green for 99 seconds and yellow for 2 seconds.
Find, as a decimal, the probability that it shows:
a green b yellow
c red or green d not red, yellow or green

8 A computer generates a random number from 1 to 20. Find, as a percentage, the

probability that the number is:
a a multiple of 4 b a factor of 20 c a number less than 30
d 25 e a prime number f divisible by 5

9 A die has 2 blue faces, 1 red face and the other faces are green. It is rolled.
Match each event to its correct probability:
a red b blue
c yellow d a colour that is not red
blue, red or green a traffic light colour
2 5 1
e f
50%
3 6 3
1
A B C D
0 G 100%
6
E F

10 A letter is chosen at random from the words ‘NEW CENTURY MATHS’.

Find each probability.
a P(T) b P(M) c P(N or E)
d P(a consonant) e P(a letter also found in PROBABILITY)
f P(K)

11 Write an event that could have a probability of:

1
0 90% 1
R C

2
a b c d
3
0.1 0.6 2%
4
e f g h

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 Did you know?
Buckley’s chance
When an Australian person says you have ‘Buckley’s chance’ of something happening, it
means that you have little chance or no chance at all. This old slang phrase is based on the
name of a Melbourne department store in the 1850s called ‘Buckley and Nunn’. The original
expression was ‘You have 2 chances: Buckley’s and none’.
English is often a funny and illogical language. For example, ‘slim chance’ and ‘fat chance’
sound like opposites, but they both mean the same thing.
Find another slang expression that describes a chance.

Investigation
Puzzle The Greedy Pig game
This is a game for 4 or more players.
Greedy Pig game

You need a playing die and a score sheet

(download and print out the puzzle sheet
‘Greedy Pig game’).
All players stand at the start of a round.

[Link]/S-F
A die is rolled twice and the total is
1

each player’s starting score.

Before the next roll of the die, each
player has the option of sitting down and keeping their score, or remaining standing and
2

‘being greedy’ with the chance of increasing their score from the next roll of the die.
The die is rolled and the number is added to the score of each player standing,
but if 2 comes up, all standing players lose their points.
3

A round ends when a 2 is rolled or all players are seated. Each player then records their
score for the round.
4

The round is repeated 4 more times and the overall winner is the player with the highest
total score for the 5 rounds.
5

6 Play this game several times. Is there any strategy to winning?

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 Observed and expected frequencies 11.04
Probability calculated using the formula:
number of favourable outcomes
total number of outcomes
P(E) =

is more specifically called theoretical probability or expected probability.

Worksheets
11.04

We can also determine probability based on the results of an experiment or trial that has been
A page of
spinners

repeated many times, such as testing the safety of different cars, or rely on past statistics, such
Dice

as the number of rainy days in April. This type of probability is called observed probability
probability

or experimental probability, which is based on relative frequency, the number of times an

Coins probability

event occurred as a fraction of the total frequency of outcomes.

Coin toss
experiment

Experimental
probabilities

Relative frequency Relative

number of times the event happened

frequencies

total number of trials

P(E) =
As in statistics, ‘frequency’ means
frequency of E
Puzzles

or P ( E ) = the number of times something

Experimental

total frequency
probability

happens. Duelling dice

Interactive
Plinko probability
Example 7
Josie spun this spinner 80 times and found the following results:
Presentation
Theoretical
probability
Outcome Red Green Yellow

What is the theoretical probability of spinning red?

No. of times 44 25 11

a
For 80 spins, what is the expected number of times of
spinning red? How does this compare with the actual
b Videos

number of times?
Experimental
probability

What is the observed probability of spinning red?

Probability:
irrational fears
c

Solution
5 1
P(red) =
10 2
a =

1
Expected number of reds = × 80 = 40.
2
b

From the table, the observed number of reds = 44, which is close to the expected
number.
44 11
Observed P(red) =
80 20
c =

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 Observed and expected frequencies
The expected number of times an event will occur over repeated trials is called the
expected frequency.
Expected frequency = theoretical probability × number of trials
The actual number of times an event occurs over repeated trials in an experiment is
called the observed frequency.

Example 8
Declan rolled a die 60 times and recorded the results in a table.
Video
Observed Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
and expected

What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 5 or 6 on a die?

frequencies Frequency 10 11 13 7 8 11

a
For 60 rolls, what is the expected frequency of rolling a 5 or 6? How does this compare
with the observed frequency?
b

c What is the experimental probability of rolling a 5 or 6?

Solution
2 1
P(5 or 6) = =
6 3
a
1
Expected frequency of 5s or 6s = × 60 Probability × number of trials
3
= 20
b

From the table, the observed frequency of 5s and 6s = 8 + 11 = 19, which is close to the
expected frequency, 20.
8 + 11 19
Experimental P(5 or 6) = =
60 60
c

EXERCISE 11.04 ANSWERS ON P. 603

Observed and expected frequencies UFRC

1 For the spinner in Example 7, find:

the theoretical probability of spinning yellow
C
EXAMPLE
7
a
the expected frequency of spinning yellow and how this compares with the observed
frequency
b

c the observed probability of spinning yellow

2 A pair of dice was rolled 50 times and their sum calculated each time.
Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Frequency 0 2 4 6 5 5 9 6 8 3 2

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 a Find, as a decimal, the observed probability of rolling a sum:
i of 10 ii of 7 or 11
iii that is even iv less than 6
v greater than 10 vi that is a prime number
Which sum:
2
b
was most likely? had a probability of ?
25
i ii
iii was least likely? iv had a probability of 10%? 11.04
4
was second-most likely? had a probability of ?
25
v vi
3 a Copy this table. EXAMPLE
8
Outcome Tally Frequency
Head
Tail

Toss a coin 50 times and record the result for each

Total

toss in the table.

b

c What is the theoretical probability of tossing a tail?

In 50 tosses, what is the expected frequency of tails?

[Link]/James Steidl
How does this compare with the observed frequency?
d

e What is the observed probability of tossing a tail?

What do you think would happen to the observed
probability of a tail if the coin was tossed 1000
f

times rather than 50? R C

4 The volume of soft drink in 50 cans of drink were measured.

Volume (mL) 373 374 375 376 377
Number of cans 2 6 38 3 1

Using these results, if you bought a can of drink, what is the probability that it will
contain exactly 375 mL of drink? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
50 19 6 3
375 25 25 50
A B C D

5 a Copy this table.

Outcome Tally Frequency
1
2
3
4
5
6

Roll a die 50 times and record the result for each roll in the table.
Total:

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 c Find the expected probability and expected frequency of rolling:
i 3 ii 6
iii an even number iv a number below 6.
d Find the observed probability of rolling:
i 3 ii 6
iii an even number iv a number below 6.
e How do the observed frequencies compare with the expected frequencies?
f What would you expect to happen if the die was rolled 1000 times? R C

6 A die was rolled 80 times, with the results shown below. R C

Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6

When rolling a normal die, is each outcome equally likely?

Frequency 11 13 9 13 12 22

a
b Do you think this die is loaded (unfair)? Give a reason for your answer.
c Write the observed probability of rolling a 1 on this die as a percentage.
d If this die was rolled 100 times, how many times would you expect 3 to come up?

7 Mila tossed a coin many times and got 140 heads and 110 tails. Calculate the observed
probability of heads with this coin as a percentage.

8 Luna surveyed all the Year 7 students at her

school about their favourite sport.
Sport Number of students

Which sport did 3 out of every 10 students

Netball 54

choose?
Soccer 75

Soccer Swimming
Hockey 25
A B
Netball Hockey
Swimming 66
C D

Technology
Rolling a die
Scientists and economists often simulate events on a computer, which saves time and money
Spreadsheets
Die rolling

because large amounts of data can be obtained quickly.

simulator

In this activity, a scientific calculator or spreadsheet is used to simulate the rolling of a die.
Coin tossing
simulator

1 Copy this table.

Outcome Number of times rolled

1
2
3
4
5
6

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 Random numbers from 1 to 6 can be generated on a calculator or spreadsheet using the
RanInt, RANDOM or =RAND() functions.
2

Casio scientific calcula or Sharp scientific calcula or

Enter the formula RanInt#(1,6) as shown 2nd F 7 (RANDOM), select 1 R-DICE, =
below:
ALPHA . 1 Shift ) 6 ) =

Press more times to generate more random integers from 1 to 6.

11.04

On a spreadsheet, type =INT(RAND()*6+1) into a cell and press the Enter key.
=

3 Run the simulation 20 times and record the results in your table.
Are certain numbers more likely to be rolled than others? (For example, is a 2 more
likely to be rolled than a 5?) Do your results reflect this?
4

Compare your results with the simulated results of your class. Are they similar or
different? Are they what you and your classmates expected? Discuss.
5

Investigation
Spinning chance
You will need: A pencil, a paper clip and an enlarged copy
Worksheets
Spinning

of the spinner used in Example 7 (print out the worksheet

chance

‘Spinning chance’).
A page of
spinners

1 Which colour is the most likely to be spun? Why? Puzzle

Which colour is the least likely?

Spinner game

2
3 Copy this table.
Outcome Tally Frequency
Red
Yellow
Green
Total:

Work with a partner. Place a pencil on the centre of the

spinner and a paper clip around the point. Spin the paper clip
4

around the spinner, and note which colour it lands on.

Take turns to spin the spinner 100 times and use the table to
record your results.
5

Find the theoretical probability and expected frequency of

spinning:
6

i red ii yellow
iii green.

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 7 How did your results compare with the expected frequency?
8 Find the relative frequency of spinning:
i red ii yellow iii green.
What would happen if 1000 spins were simulated? How many of each colour would be
expected?
9

10 Combine the results of your class on a whiteboard or projector to calculate the

observed probability for each colour. For such a large number of trials, are the observed
probabilities closer to the theoretical probabilities?
11 The spinner can also be simulated using the random number generator on a calculator,
which outputs a random decimal between 0 and 1 with 3 decimal places.
Let 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 represent red, 5 and 6 represent yellow and 7, 8 and 9 represent green.
Now each decimal generated can represent 3 spins of the spinner. For example, 0.561
represents yellow, yellow, red.
12 Draw the blank table from question 8 again and use the ‘Random’ function on your
calculator to simulate 100 spins.
13 Use the table to record your results.
14 How did your results compare with the expected frequencies?

Mental skills 11: Maths without calculators ANSWERS ON P. 603

Adding 90c and 95c
A quick way to mentally add monetary amounts ending in 90c or 95c is to round up to whole
Quiz
Mental skills 11

dollars and then subtract 10c or 5c respectively.

1 Study each example.
a $8.95 + $17.95 + $11.95 = $9 + $18 + $12 – 5c – 5c – 5c
= $39 – 15c
= $38.85
b $14.90 + $5.95 + $12.90 = $15 + $6 + $13 – 10c – 5c – 10c
= $34 – 25c
= $33.75
c $18.90 + $24.90 + $8.80 = $19 + $25 + $9 – 10c – 10c – 20c
= $53 – 40c
= $52.60
2 Now simplify each expression.
a $12.95 + $7.95 + $14.95 b $20.90 + $4.95 + $13.95
c $9.95 + $11.90 + $13.90 d $11.95 + $15.90 + $6.95
e $13.95 + $19.95 + $8.95 f $34.90 + $34.90
g $27.95 + $16.95 + $12.90 h $11.90 + $21.95 + $19.80
i $24.95 + $34.95 j $33.90 + $49.90 + $49.90

486 New Century Maths 7 9780170477963

 Investigation
Complementary events
In everyday life, we use the word ‘complementary’ to describe things that go together and
‘complete the picture’ when they are together. For example, when dressing for an occasion:
• a shirt and a matching tie complement each other
• a dress and a matching pair of shoes complement each other
Remember also that ‘complementary’ angles add to 90°. Not to be confused with
11.04

complimentary, which means

In probability, complementary events are events that speaking highly about someone and
together make up all the possible outcomes. paying them a compliment or to
describe an item received for free.

Event Complementary event

Tossing a tail on a coin Tossing a head on a coin
Rolling a 6 on a die Rolling any of the other numbers, from 1 to 5, on a die
Raining Not raining
Being born on a Monday Being born on a day other than Monday

Suppose that there is an equal chance of being born on any day of the week: Monday to
Sunday.
1

a What is P(Tues), the probability of being born on a Tuesday?

b What is P(not Tues), the probability of being born on a day other than Tuesday?
c What do you notice about P(Tues) + P(not Tues)?
A fruit bowl contains 7 apples, 4 oranges and 9 bananas. One piece of fruit is selected at
random from the bowl.
2

a Find P(orange) b Find P(not orange)

c What do you notice about P(orange) + P(not orange)?
A baby is selected at random from the maternity section of a large hospital. There is an
equal chance of the baby being a boy or a girl.
3

a Find P(boy) b Find P(girl)

c What do you notice about P(boy) + P(girl)?
4 Copy and complete the following sentence:
The probability of an event _____ the probability of its complementary event must
always equal _____.

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 487

 11.05 Complementary events
In any situation, the probabilities of all possible outcomes must add to 1.
Complementary events are 2 events that together make up all the possible outcomes, such as
a head and a tail when tossing a coin. The complement of an event E, are all those outcomes
that are not E, or that are the ‘opposite’ of E.
Worksheet

Because an event and its complement covers all possible outcomes, the sum of their
Theoretical
probabilities

Puzzle probabilities must equal 1.

Complementary
events
Complementary events
P(E) + P(not E) = 1
or P(not E) = 1 – P(E)
or P(complementary event) = 1 − P(event)
or P(event not occurring) = 1 − P(event occurring)
Video
Complementary
events

If the probability is written in percentage form, then P(not E) = 100% – P(E).

Example 9
On this spinner, what is the probability of spinning:
red?
red
a
a colour that is not red?
green white
b
a colour that is not green?
white red
c
white

Solution
2 1
P(red) = =
6 3
a
b P(not red) = 1 – P(red)
1
=1− The complement of ‘red’
3 is ‘not red’, which is ‘white
2
= or green’
3
1 2
Note that P(red) + P(not red) = + = 1, which covers all possible outcomes.
3 3
1
P(green) = The complement of
6 ‘green’ is ‘not green’,
c
P(not green) = 1 – P(green) which is ‘red or white’
1
=1−
6
5
=
6
1 5
Note that P(green) + P(not green) = + = 1, which covers all possible outcomes.
6 6

488 New Century Maths 7 9780170477963

 EXERCISE 11.05 ANSWERS ON P. 603
Complementary events UFRC

1 Write the complement for each event.

The sex of a new baby being female
R C

a
b Rain tomorrow
c Losing a soccer match
Being left-handed
11.05
d
e Being over 18 years of age
f Choosing a hearts card from a deck of playing cards
g A traffic light showing green
h A train arriving late

2 A die is rolled. What is the probability that the result is:

3? less than 3? prime?
EXAMPLE
9
a b c
d not a 3? e not less than 3? f not prime?

3 Olivia buys a ticket in a raffle in which 1000 tickets are sold and there is only one prize.
What is the probability of Olivia:
a winning the prize? b not winning the prize?

4 A jar contains jellybeans in the following colours and amounts:

red 40, blue 25, black 50, white 15. One jellybean is selected at
random. What is the probability that the jellybean is:
a white? b not white?
c yellow? d not yellow?
e not red? f not blue or black?

5 Find the probability of the event that is complementary to each event

described.
1
The probability of choosing a Jack from a pack of cards is .
13
a
b The chance of shooting a basketball hoop is 55%.
c The probability of winning a prize is 0.07.

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 6 A bag of toy cars contains only red, blue and white cars. If you take out a car at random,
the chance of it being red is 0.5, and the chance of it being white is 0.2.
a What is the chance of selecting a red or white car?
b What is the chance of selecting a blue car?
c If the bag holds 30 cars, how many of each colour would you expect to find?
d What is the chance of the car you select being pink?

7 What is the probability that the next person you meet was born in a month:
a beginning with the letter A?
b not beginning with the letter A?

8 4 students, Sue, Liam, Emily and Matt, write their names on cards and place the cards in
a bag. A card is chosen, without looking, to select the class captain.
a Find the probability that Emily was not chosen.
b Find the probability that the captain is a boy.
c What is the chance that the captain is not a boy?
d What is the chance that the captain is the teacher?

9 Which of the following is the complementary event to ‘winning a race’?

Select the correct answer A, B, C or D. R C
A coming last B coming second or third
C not winning the race D coming second

10 In a netball match, the Swifts have a 43% chance of winning, while the Vixens have a
49% chance of winning. R C
a What other outcome is possible?
b What is the probability of this outcome?

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 11 The probability that a person has skin cancer is 0.03. What is the probability that a
person doesn’t have skin cancer? Select A, B, C or D.
A 0.2 B 0.7 C 0.07 D 0.97

12 The letters of the word PROBABILITY are written on separate cards and one is randomly
selected. What is the probability that a letter drawn out is:
a not P? b not a vowel? c not I? d not A or B?

13 The probability that it will rain this weekend is 85%. What is the probability
11.05

that it won’t rain?

14 A die is rolled. What is the chance that the number rolled is not a factor of 6?
Select A, B, C or D.
2 5 1 1
3 6 3 6
A B C D

15 Stef has a rug with this pattern of colours. Ashton drops his
ice cream on the rug. What is the probability that the ice cream
lands on the section coloured:
a yellow? b red?
c blue or green? d not green?

16 What is the decimal probability that a mobile phone number selected at random does
not end in 0 or 1? R

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9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 491

 Power plus ANSWERS ON P. 604
2 dice are rolled and the sum of the numbers is calculated.
+
1
Copy and complete this table to
show all possible sums.
a 1st die

How many different sums are

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6

possible?
b 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Why isn’t each sum equally

2 3 4

likely?
c

2nd die
3 4

Which sum is the most likely?

4
d
Which sum is the least likely?
5
e 6

f What is the probability of a sum of 2?

What is the probability of a sum of 10?
1
g
Which sum has a probability of ?
9
h
3 coins are tossed together. One possible outcome is HHT, that is, heads on the first coin,
heads on the second coin, tails on the third coin.
2

a How many other possible outcomes are there? List them.

b Use your answers from part a to calculate the probability of:
i 3 heads ii 2 heads iii one head
iv no heads v at least one head vi at most one head
At Harry’s takeaway, you can order a special meal deal for $8 that consists of one main
meal, one drink and one dessert.
3

Harry’s Takeaway Menu

Main meals Drinks Desserts
Hot dog Cola Cake
Pizza Lemonade Ice cream
Hamburger

a List all possible meal deal combinations. How many are there?
b If you were to choose a combination at random, what is the probability that it will:
i be pizza, lemonade and cake?
ii not contain a hot dog?
iii contain cola?

492 New Century Maths 7 9780170477963

 CHAPTER 11 REVIEW
Quiz

Language of maths Language of

certain chance complementary event die/dice

maths 11

equally likely event expected frequency experiment

Puzzle
Probability

favourable frequency impossible improbable

crossword

CHAPTER 11 REVIEW
likely observed frequency observed probability outcome
Worksheet

probability probable random relative frequency

Probability
review

sample space theoretical probability trial unlikely

1 What is the opposite of impossible and what is its probability value?
2 What is the difference between impossible and improbable?
3 What is the name given to the set of all possible outcomes for a situation?
4 What is the complementary event to a baby being born on a weekend?
5 What does it mean when a name is drawn out of a box ‘at random’?
6 What word means the number of times something happens?

Topic summary
• Write about what you have learnt in this chapter.
• Write down the parts of the chapter that were new to you.
• Copy and complete:
Worksheet
Mind map:

The things I understand about probability are ...

Probability

The things I am still not confident about in this chapter are ...
Print (or copy) and complete this mind map of the topic, adding detail to its branches and using
pictures, symbols and colour where needed. Ask your teacher to check your work.
Probability
[Link]/Fat Jackey

paces
ple s
Sam

ity
Probabil
sa
cie
uen
eq
Range of proba
bility d fr
expecte
Observed and

Complementary events

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 493

 Quiz
Test yourself 11 TEST YOURSELF 11 ANSWERS ON P. 604

1 List the outcomes for the sample space in each situation.

The result of a driving test
11.01
a
b The classification of a new film (for example, PG)
c The winner of a tennis match when Katrina plays Biljana
The public transport students use to attend your school
TEST YOURSELF 11

d
2 a For this spinner, how many outcomes are there in
the sample space?
11.01 1 2

Why isn’t each outcome equally likely?

3
b
Which number is the most likely?
5
c
Which number is the least likely to be spun?
4
d
e Which number has a probability of 25%?

3 On a die, what is the probability of rolling:

a 1? an odd number? a number less than 5?
11.02
a b c

4 A box of chocolates contains 15 dark chocolates, 13 milk chocolates and 12 white

chocolates. Markos selects one chocolate at random. What is the probability that he has
11.02

chosen a white chocolate? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.

1 1 3 7
28 12 10 10
A B C D

5 A truck carries 325 boxes of exercise books, 210 boxes of rulers, 360 boxes of paper and
145 boxes of pens. If a box is taken at random from the truck, what is the probability
11.02

(as a percentage correct to one decimal place) that the box contains:
a rulers? b no pens?
c exercise books or paper? d erasers? [Link]/NDAB Creativity

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494 New Century Maths 7 9780170477963

 6 Where on the probability scale is the chance that the next baby born at the local hospital is a
girl? Select A, B, C or D.
11.03

A B C D
0 1

7 A jar contains 1 red, 6 yellow, 2 white and 5 black jellybeans. If a jellybean is selected at
random, find the probability that it is:
11.03

yellow white or red blue not green

TEST YOURSELF 11
a b c d

8 Which word best describes an event that has a probability of 0.29? Select A, B, C or D.
unlikely highly probable
11.03
A B
C almost impossible D good chance

9 Which event below could be described as a certain event? Select A, B, C or D.

Choosing a 4 from a hat containing the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4
11.03
A
B Choosing a red ball from a bag of green balls
C Rolling an odd or even number on a die
D A new baby being a girl

10 A coin was tossed 80 times and landed heads 24 times.

What is the theoretical probability of obtaining a head?
11.04
a
What is the expected frequency of heads from 80 tosses of a coin?
How does the observed frequency compare to this?
b

c What is the observed probability of obtaining a head?

11 Write the complementary event for each event, and its probability.
Selecting a queen from a deck of cards.
11.05
a
b Rolling a multiple of 3 on a die.
c Buying the winning ticket out of 550 tickets sold.

12 The names of 5 players; Ashleigh, Hamish, Sarah, Jake and Hayley are written on separate
cards and put into a bag. One name is drawn at random from the bag. What is the
11.05

probability that the name selected:

a is Hamish? b is a girl’s name? c does not begin with H?

13 There are 8 brown marbles, 4 black marbles and 3 white marbles in a bag. One marble
is taken at random from the bag. What is the probability that the marble selected is not
11.05

brown?

Foundation Standard Complex

9780170477963 Chapter 11 | Probability 495