Mathematical expectation and standard deviation

In the previous topic, we mentioned the idea of statistically studying probability.

through the probability distribution, we will continue with this analysis
resuming important measures in statistics which are the arithmetic mean
(average) and the standard deviation.

The mathematical expectation or average is the value that one would expect to observe on average.
if the experiment is repeated over and over again (it should be noted that the average is not
necessarily a possible outcome of the experiment). The expectation is given by the
formula:

Example 1. In a raffle, there will be 6 prizes; one of $10,000, two of $5,000 and
five of $3000; assuming that one hundred raffle tickets are distributed and not considering
expenses, how much should each ticket cost to cover the cost of the prizes?
Let the variable X: prize value, it can take values of 3000, 5000, and 10000.

Values of x Probability of each Both columns are multiplied and summed up.
value results
x p(x) x * p(x)
3000 5 / 100 = 0.05 3000 * 0.05 = 150
5000 2 / 100 = 0.02 5000 * 0.02 = 100
10000 1 / 100 = 0.01 10000 * 0.01 = 100
E(x) = Σ = 350

The minimum price of each ticket must be 350 pesos.

Variance and Standard Deviation

The mathematical expectation or mean of the random variable X describes where it

center the probability distribution. However, by itself, it does not provide a
appropriate description of the distribution therefore it is also necessary to analyze the
dispersion of the distribution. In this case we will use variance and standard deviation.
standard.

Let x be a discrete random variable with probability distribution p(x) and expectation
E(x). The variance of x is

Example 2. The manager of an electronics store knows the distribution of

Probability X that a certain number of computers will be sold in a day. Find
the expectation, variance, and standard deviation of X.

X 0 1 2 3 4 5
 P(x) 0.10 0.40 0.20 0.15 .10 0.05
We built the following table

The expected number of sales will be 1.9 computers, that is, 2 per day with a
standard deviation of 1.34 computers.

Example 3. If a person invests in some stocks with a probability of 0.3 of

to obtain a profit of $4000 or a probability of 0.7 of having a loss of
$1000. ¿Cuál es la ganancia esperada y la desviación estándar de esta persona?

If X is the person's gain, it can take two values: +4000 if they win, or -1000 if they lose.
loses.
We built the following table

The expected profit is 500 pesos with a deviation of 3807.88 pesos.

Example 4. Approximately 10% of the glass bottles that leave a line of

production presents defects in the glass. If two bottles are selected at random,
find the mean and the standard deviation of the number of bottles presented
defects.

Sea X: number of bottles with defects, its possible values are 0, 1, and 2.

The probability of being defective is 0.10 and of being good is 0.90, furthermore each
the bottle is independent of the others we can obtain the probability distribution
by the multiplication rule in the following way:
P (both good) = P(x=0) = (0.90) (0.90) = 0.81
P (a defective one) = P(x=1) = (0.10) (0.90) + (0.90) (0.10) = 0.09 + 0.09 = 0.18
P (both defective) = P(x=2) = (0.10) (0.10) = 0.01
The probability distribution table is as follows:
The expected number of defective bottles will be 0.2 with a deviation of 0.68.
bottles.

Exercises.

A box contains 6 bills of $200.00, 3 of $500.00, and 1 of $1000.00. Determine

the mathematical expectation, when randomly drawing a ticket.

2. Count the number of times a customer goes to a store in a period of one

week and its probability distribution is given by the following table. Find the
expected value of x and its standard deviation.

X 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.10
3. The representative of a company is about to launch
a new product, if the product sells the earnings will be approximately
800 thousand pesos, but if it doesn't sell, there will be an approximate loss of 250 thousand pesos.
The sales department estimates that the probabilities of failure and success are .01 and
0.05, respectively. Find the expected gain and the standard deviation for the
possible sales.

4. A salesperson accidentally schedules two appointments at the same time, considering that in the
First meeting has a 70 percent chance of closing the sale with a profit.
from 10,000 pesos; on the other hand, he believes that on the second date he only has a 40 percent of
probabilities of closing the sale with a profit of 15,000 pesos. If not,
Change the appointments and you can only attend one of them. Which one suits you better?

5. In a raffle, 800 tickets are sold at 50 each, the prize is a screen.

television with a value of 14,000 pesos. If you buy two tickets, what is your
expected profit?

Example: A student presents themselves to a multiple choice exam that

It contains 8 questions, each with three optional answers. If the student is...
guessing the answer to each question and it is also known that to pass the
The exam must correctly answer 6 or more questions. What is the probability?
of passing the exam? Solution We define the random variable X such that:
NORMAL APPROACH TO
THE BINOMIAL

NORMAL APPROACH

TO THE BINOMIAL

EXERCISE 1

Suppose a binomial probability distribution,

with n = 40 and u = 0.55. Calculate the following:

a. The mean and the standard deviation of the random variable.

b. The probability that x is equal to or greater than 25.

c. The probability that x is equal to or less than 15.

d. The probability that x is between 15 and 25, inclusive

EXERCISE 2

A study conducted by the conditioning club

physical Taurus Health club revealed that 30% of its members

new ones are considerably overweight.

A promotion for memberships in the area

metropolitan resulted in the description of

500 new partners.

a) It has been proposed to use the normal approximation to the binomial.

to determine the probability that 175 or more of the

new members may be significantly overweight.

Can this problem be classified as binomial?

Explain your answer.

Yes, because there are two possible outcomes, the one they have.

overweight and the other who is not overweight.

The number of successes is the result of overweight partners.

The trials are independent.

Its probability will be equal in the trials, which is 0.3.

b) What is the probability that 175 or more of the members

do new ones have overweight?

c) What is the probability that 140 or more of the partners

recently have overweight?

EXERCISE 3

The company Theresa Tax Service deals with tax affairs.

specializing in the preparation of statements of

customer professional taxes

(doctors, dentists, accountants, lawyers).

A recent audit of the statements indicated that

5% of the previous year's statements prepared

for the company there was some error. Assuming that the

rate continues this year, and the company produced 60

statements, what is the probability that

make a mistake in:

a. More than 6 statements?

b. At least 6 statements?

c. Exactly 6 statements?
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Discrete distributions: Binomial

Hear Lesson.

The binomial distribution is part of the Bernoulli distribution.

The Bernoulli distribution applies when it is performed only once.

an experiment that has only two possible outcomes (success or
failure), so the variable can only take two values: 1 and the
0.
The binomial distribution is applied when a number "n" of
sometimes the Bernoulli experiment, with each trial being independent
of the previous. The variable can take values between:

if all the experiments have been a failure

if all the experiments have been successful

Example: a coin is flipped 10 times: how many heads come up? If not
if no heads have come out, the variable takes the value 0; if two heads have come out,
the variable takes the value 2; if all have been heads the variable takes the value
10

The probability distribution of this type of distribution follows the

next model:

Does anyone understand this formula? We are going to try to explain it with a
example:

Example 1: What is the probability of getting 6 heads when tossing a coin?

coin 10 times?

"k" is the number of correct answers. In this example, "k" equals 6 (in each
correct, we said that the variable takes the value 1: since there are 6 correct answers,
then k = 6)
n is the number of trials. In our example, it is 10.
p is the probability of success, that is, that it comes up "heads" when tossing the coin.
coin. Therefore p = 0.5
The formula would be:
Then,
P (x = 6) = 0,205

That is to say, there is a 20.5% probability of obtaining 6 heads when

toss a coin 10 times.

Example 2: What is the probability of getting the number four times?

3 when rolling a die eight times?

(number of correct answers) takes the value 4

n takes the value 8

p (probability of rolling a 3 on the dice) is 1 / 6 (=
0.1666

The formula is:

Then,
P (x = 4) = 0.026

That is, there is a 2.6% chance of getting four times the

numbers 3 when rolling a die 8 times.
3) HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION.
Experiments that have this type of distribution have the following
characteristics:
a) When conducting an experiment with this type of distribution, one ...
They expect two types of results.
b) The probabilities associated with each of the outcomes do not
they are constant.
c) Each trial or repetition of the experiment is not independent
from others.
d) The number of repetitions of the experiment (n) is constant.

Example:
In a urn or container, there is a total of N objects, among which
there is a number of objects that are defective, if they are selected
from this urn random objects, and without replacement, what is the
probability of obtaining defective objects?
Solution:

Then;

where:
p(x,n) = probability of obtaining x defective items from
entrance selected

samples of n objects where there are x that are

defective and good

all possible samples to select from n objects

taken from entreNobjects in total = sample space

Considering that there are a total of 10 objects in the urn, 3 of which

Which ones are defective, if 4 objects are selected at random, what is
the probability that 2 are defective?

Solution:
 N = 10 objects in total
a = 3 defective objects
n = 4 objects selected in sample
x = 2 defective objects desired in the sample

where:

probability associated with each sample of 4 objects that

they were selected, which shows that the probabilities are not
constants

ways or methods to obtain 2 defective objects among the

4 selected = samples of 4 objects among which 2 are defective

As observed in the development of the solution to the problem, the

the intention is to demonstrate that the probabilities associated with each of
the results are not constant.

Then the probability of obtaining 2 defective objects among the 4

randomly selected would be:
Examples:
1. To avoid being discovered at customs, a traveler has placed 6
narcotic tablets in a bottle containing 9 vitamin pills that
they are similar in appearance. If the customs officer selects 3 tablets
randomly to analyze them, a) What is the probability that the traveler
Have you been arrested for possession of narcotics? b) What is the probability that
do not be arrested for possession of narcotics?

Solution:
a) N = 9 + 6 = 15 total tablets
6 narcotic tablets
n = 3 selected tablets
x = 0, 1, 2, or 3 narcotic tablets = variable that indicates the number
the narcotic tablets that can be found by selecting the 3
tablets

p(traveler being arrested for possession of narcotics) = p(that among the 3

selected tablets there is 1 or more narcotic tablets

another way to solve;

p(the traveler is arrested for possession of narcotics) = 1 - p(of entering

the selected tablets do not contain a single narcotic

p(not being arrested for possession of narcotics)

 2. From a batch of 10 projectiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If the batch
contains 3 defective projectiles that will not explode, what is the probability
de que , a) los 4 exploten?, b) al menos 2 no exploten?

Solution:
a) N = 10 projectiles in total
7 projectiles that explode
n = 4 selected projectiles
x = 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 projectiles that explode = variable that defines us
number of projectiles that explode among the fired sample

b) N = 10 projectiles in total
3 projectiles that do not explode
n = 4 selected projectiles
x = 0, 1, 2 or 3 projectiles that do not explode

p(at least 2 do not explode) = p(2 or more projectiles do not explode) = p(x = 2 or 3;
n=4) =

3.a) What is the probability that a waitress refuses to serve drinks?

alcoholic beverages only to two minors if verified randomly only 5
identifications of 9 students, of which 4 do not have the age
sufficient?, b) What is the probability that at most 2 of the
Do identifications belong to minors?
Solution:

a) N = 9 total students
4 underage students
n = 5 selected identifications
 x = variable that defines the number of identifications that belong
to minors
0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 identifications of minors

b) N = 9 total students
4 underage students
n = 5 selected identifications
x = variable that defines the number of identifications that belong to
minors
0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 identifications of minors

A manufacturing company uses a scheme for acceptance of

the articles produced before being shipped. The plan is in two stages.
Boxes of 25 are prepared for shipment and a sample of 3 is selected.
to check if they have any defective item. If one is found, the
The whole box is returned to verify it at 100%. If nothing is found
defective item, the box is shipped. a) What is the probability that it
I shipped a box that has three defective items? b) What is the
probability that a box containing only one defective item is
return for verification?
I need help with math please I offer
5 stars 10 points thank you very much
I need to know the reason for proportionality example:
A television will be raffled off with 100 numbered tickets, and they are as follows
5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95 what is the probability of television
thank you

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Mejor respuesta: bueno a lo que entendi:

A TV will be raffled with 100 tickets and you have those tickets with numbers 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95 and
Since there are 10 tickets, the probability of winning the television is 10/100 or 10 out of 100.
I hope my answer helps you.
1st in the mathematics olympiad

Sarai6 years ago

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maybe this will help you

help XD

Lucas6 years ago

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Probability you find the number of members:

5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85, 95 - are 10 options (tickets)

The total number of tickets is 100

The proportionality would be (amount obtained)/(total amount)

So it's 10/100
DiegoGT· 6 years ago

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Next

Do you know about probability?

help with this problem: a car worth $200,000 will be raffled off, for this tickets are being sold
8,000 boletos a $100.00 cada uno si se compra un boleto A) la ganancia esperada, B) la ganancia
hope if 3 tickets are bought

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Best answer: a)

probabilidad de acertar 1/8000 --> ganancia (valor auto - coste boleto) 200000-100 = 199900
probability of not hitting 1-1/8000 = 7999/8000 --> gain = -100 (ticket cost)
E(X) = Sum of gain * probability

E(X) = 199900*1/8000 - 100*7999/8000 = -75 --> -$75

b)

probabilidad de acertar 3/8000 --> ganancia (valor auto - coste 3 boletos) 200000-3*100 = 199700
probability of not hitting 1-3/8000 = 7997/8000 --> profit = -300 (cost 3 tickets)

E(X) = Sum of gains * probability

E(X) = 199700*3/8000 - 300*7997/8000 = -225 --> -$225