11 mathematic methods FA2 PSMT
Introduction
As tasked by Mathematical Medical Association (MMA), this study will model three types of
functions for predicting the infection rate of a new virus called the Walker Virus and the
period of spreading the virus is 28 days. The country that will be investigated is Bangkok.
The population of Bangkok is approximately 10,539,000. The method to collect the data on
the death of the Walker Virus is to use 34 m&m. This study will be modelling the spread of
the Walker Virus using the data by throwing the m&m onto the table and collecting the data
of the flipped (the side with the letter M) m&m representing the virus’s death. Multiple
trials will be done until all m&m are flipped. After the collection of data and development of
the function. I will use the 3 functions developed from the raw data collected and utilize
them to predict populations of humans affected by the Walker Virus. According to the
result, a determination of which of the model is the most accurate mode for the prediction
of disease spread. That function will be submitted to MMA.
Procedure
Collect the raw data from three trials.
Calculate the mean of three trials.
Make sample data by using the results and make a few graphs.
Uses exponential and logarithmic function formulas from the data.
Assumptions
Uses Bangkok to be the city of this experience, so the population of each m&m
representative is 300,000.
The number of trials in the sample is averaged over 28 days to simulate the spread of
the virus.
Patients have 24 hours to spread the virus after they caught the virus.
Observations
The period of the virus spreading is a total of 28 days.
There is no cure for this virus.
The M&M sample is used to represent the current population of the nearest capital
city.
Need to use two models, exponential and logarithmic.
Row data collection
I decide to do three trails with these 34 m&m and these are the row data I get from these
three trails:
Trail1 Trail2 Trail3 Trail4 Trail5 Trail6 Trail7 Trail8
Days 3.5 7 10.5 14 17.5 21 24.5 28
Survivers 34 19 10 6 5 3 1 0
Infect 15 9 4 1 2 2 1 0
Deaths 44% 47% 40% 16% 40% 66% 100% 0%
Trail1 Trail2 Trail3 Trail4 Trail5 Trail6 Trail7 Trail8
Days 3.5 7 10.5 14 17.5 21 24.5 28
Survivers 34 15 13 5 2 1 1 0
Infect 19 2 7 3 1 0 1 0
Deaths 55% 13% 53% 60% 50% 0% 100% 0%
Trail1 Trail2 Trail3 Trail4 Trail5 Trail6 Trail7 Trail8 Trail9
Days 3.1 6.2 9.3 12.4 15.5 18.6 21.7 23.8 28
Survivers 34 13 8 5 4 2 2 1 0
Infect 21 5 3 1 2 0 1 1 0
Deaths 61% 38% 37% 20% 50% 0% 50% 100% 0%
Take the average of the three data:
Trail1 Trail2 Trail3 Trail4 Trail5 Trail6 Trail7 Trail8
Survivers 34 15.66667 10.33333 5.333333 3.666667 2 1.333333 0.333333
Infect 18.33333 5.333333 4.666667 1.666667 1.666667 0.666667 1 0.333333
Deaths 53% 33% 43% 32% 47% 22% 83% 33%
Now the thing I have to do with this graph is to make a trendline graph. Firstly, about how
to figure out how many people each one of m&m represents, if x is the population of each
1053900
m&m, then x × 34=10,539,000, so ≈ 300,000. The population of each m&m is
34
about 300,000. The period of the virus spreading is 28 days, and the days each trial
represent is unstable because I can’t make sure different experiences have the same
28
number of trials. It could be 8 trails which represent =3.5 days or it could also be 7 trails
8
28
which is =4 days. But the method to calculate the days each trial is 28÷ the numbers of
7
trials.
this is how the draft look.
(300,000* 18.33, 5.33, 4.66, 1.66, 0.66, 1, 0.33) The x-axis represents time in seconds and
the y-axis represents the number of people infected. In this model, the total infected
population is not modelled because the infected population would die the next day.
Therefore, the graph also represents the death rate of the virus, where the y-axis represents
the number of people infected.
Exponential and logarithmic functions are calculated using these points respectively:
Exponential:
method:
Data collection: Infection rate data is collected periodically over a specified time period.
Each recorded data point represents the number of infections at a specific time.
Curve Fitting: Analyze the collected data points to determine the mathematical function that
best represents the infection rate. In this study, an exponential function was chosen
because it fits the fast and exponential nature of viral outbreaks.
Using a curve-fitting technique, it was found that an exponential function provided a
suitable model for the infection rate data. The general form of the exponential function is
given by:
x
y=a ⅇ + c
Where a is a dilation factor and c represents the height translation, also known as the
asymptote.
The asymptote of y= -1 is identified and substituted to give c= -1
1599000=ae^7-1
a=(1599000+1)/e^7
a=1528.63
Logarithmic
Avg. Dead
40
33 34
35 31.6667
f(x) = 15.6309068913858 ln(x) − 15.4267663916436
30
R² = 0.943713343803205
28.3333
30
23.6667
25
amount dead
20 18.3333
15
10
5
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
days
The logarithmic function is a common nonlinear function, expressed as y=logₐ(x), where a is
a positive number and not equal to 1, and x and y represent the independent and
dependent variables, respectively. The logarithmic function has the following
characteristics:
Domain of definition: x>0, that is, the independent variable must be a positive number.
Range: The range of the logarithmic function is all real numbers.
Function image: The image of the logarithmic function is an increasing curve in the first and
second quadrants, which can be regarded as the inverse function of the exponential
function y=aˣ. When a>1, the logarithmic function shows an increasing curve when x>1, and
it shows a decreasing curve when 0<x<1; when 0<a<1, the logarithmic function shows as a
curve when x>1 Decreasing curve, when 0<x<1, it is an increasing curve.
Method:
However, these functions do not represent the sample data completely as there is a turning
point at 24 days. Thus, a quadratic function is used as the third function to model the spread
of the virus.
y=a(x-h)^2+k,
Where h and k are the coordinates of the turning point at (21, 198000)
y=a(x-21)^2
Sub-known value (7, 1599000) for a
1599000=a(7-21)^2
1599000/(-14)^2 =a
a=8158.16
Therefore y=8158.16
Polynomial
A polynomial function is an important concept in algebra, which refers to an expression
composed of the sum of multiple variables and constants. A polynomial function can be
expressed as f(x) = a0 + a1x + a2x^2 + ... + anx^n, where a0, a1, a2, etc. are constants, and n
is the degree of the polynomial. The properties and behavior of polynomial functions are
widely used and studied in mathematics. Here are some common analyzes of polynomial
functions:
The degree of a polynomial function determines the degree of its highest power term, while
the coefficients of a polynomial function determine the weight and relative importance of
each term.
The derivative function of a polynomial function can be used to find the slope or tangent
equation of the function at any point.
The roots (zero points) of a polynomial function are the values of x that make the function
value 0. Finding the root can be done algebraically or graphically (such as finding the
intersection point of the graph of the function with the x-axis).
The graph of a polynomial function can be visualized by plotting the function curve. Because
polynomial functions are continuous and smooth, their graphs are usually smooth curves.
The properties and behavior of polynomial functions are widely used and studied in
mathematics. For example, they are used in areas such as fitting data, optimization
problems, control systems, image processing, and modeling in physics and engineering.
Conclusion and Evaluation
Limiting the sample size in this experiment to possibly being small and not representative of
the entire population, the experiment evaluates the virus from the first day of spread to the
end, with the virus getting weaker and weaker over time. All in all, judging from the results
of data and calculations, people began to be infected in large numbers after the virus began
to spread and gradually reduced their infections to very few in the end. However, infected
people die every 24 hours, so the total number of deaths is increasing day by day.