Refer Link: [Link]
org/basic-understanding-of-bayesian-belief-networks/
Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary. The alarm reliably
responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for minor earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors
David and Sophia, who have taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work when they hear the alarm.
David always calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got confused with the phone
ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia likes to listen to high music, so
sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here we would like to compute the probability of Burglary
Alarm.
Problem:
Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a burglary, nor an
earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called the Harry.
Solution:
o The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The network structure is
showing that burglary and earthquake is the parent node of the alarm and directly affecting
the probability of alarm's going off, but David and Sophia's calls depend on alarm probability.
o The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly perceive the burglary and
also do not notice the minor earthquake, and they also not confer before calling.
o The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional probabilities table or
CPT.
o Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the table represent an
exhaustive set of cases for the variable.
o In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains 2K probabilities. Hence, if there
are two parents, then CPT will contain 4 probability values
List of all events occurring in this network:
o Burglary (B)
o Earthquake(E)
o Alarm(A)
o David Calls(D)
o Sophia calls(S)
o We can write the events of problem statement in the form of
probability: P[D, S, A, B, E], can rewrite the above probability
statement using joint probability distribution:
o P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]
o =P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]
o = P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]
o = P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]
o = P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]
Let's take the observed probability for the Burglary and earthquake component:
P(B= True) = 0.002, which is the probability of burglary.
P(B= False)= 0.998, which is the probability of no burglary.
P(E= True)= 0.001, which is the probability of a minor earthquake
P(E= False)= 0.999, Which is the probability that an earthquake not occurred.
We can provide the conditional probabilities as per the below tables:
Conditional probability table for Alarm A:
The Conditional probability of Alarm A depends on Burglar and earthquake:
B E P(A= P(A= False)
True)
True True 0.94 0.06
True False 0.95 0.04
False True 0.31 0.69
False False 0.001 0.999
Conditional probability table for David Calls:
The Conditional probability of David that he will call depends on the probability of Alarm.
A P(D= P(D= False)
True)
True 0.91 0.09
False 0.05 0.95
Conditional probability table for Sophia Calls:
A P(S= True) P(S= False)
True 0.75 0.25
False 0.02 0.98
The Conditional probability of Sophia that she calls is depending on its Parent Node "Alarm."
From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem statement in the form of probability
distribution:
P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P (¬E).
= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999
= 0.00068045.
Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the domain by using Joint distribution.
The semantics of Bayesian Network:
There are two ways to understand the semantics of the Bayesian network, which is given below:
1. To understand the network as the representation of the Joint probability distribution.
It is helpful to understand how to construct the network.
2. To understand the network as an encoding of a collection of conditional independence
statements.
It is helpful in designing inference procedure.