Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase
in global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate
system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term
changes to Earth's climate. The modern-day rise in global temperatures is driven by
human activities, especially fossil fuel (coal, oil and natural gas) burning since
the Industrial Revolution.[3][4] Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and
industrial practices release greenhouse gases.[5] These gases absorb some of the
heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight, warming the lower
atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere now has roughly 50% more carbon dioxide, the
main gas driving global warming, than it did at the end of the pre-industrial era,
reaching levels not seen for millions of years.[6]
Climate change has an increasingly large impact on the environment. Deserts are
expanding, while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common.[7] Amplified
warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost, retreat of
glaciers and sea ice decline.[8] Higher temperatures are also causing more intense
storms, droughts, and other weather extremes.[9] Rapid environmental change
in mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic is forcing many species to relocate
or become extinct.[10] Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some
effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating, ocean
acidification and sea level rise.[11]
Climate change threatens people with increased flooding, extreme heat,
increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss.[12] Human
migration and conflict can also be a result.[13] The World Health Organization calls
climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century.
[14]
Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit
warming.[15] Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures
or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some
limits to adaptation have already been reached.[16] Poorer communities are
responsible for a small share of global emissions, yet have the least ability to adapt
and are most vulnerable to climate change.[17][18]
Examples of some effects of climate change: Wildfire intensified by heat and drought, bleaching
of corals occurring more often due to marine heatwaves, and worsening droughts compromising
water supplies.
Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st
century, with 2024 the warmest on record at +1.60 °C (2.88 °F) since regular
tracking began in 1850.[20][21] Additional warming will increase these impacts and can
trigger tipping points, such as melting all of the Greenland ice sheet.[22] Under the
2015 Paris Agreement, nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under
2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still
reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century.[23]
There is widespread support for climate action worldwide,[24][25] and most countries
aim to stop emitting carbon dioxide.[26] Fossil fuels can be phased out by
stopping subsidising them, conserving energy and switching to energy sources that
do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources
include wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power.[27] Cleanly generated electricity can
replace fossil fuels for powering transportation, heating buildings, and running
industrial processes.[28] Carbon can also be removed from the atmosphere, for
instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that store carbon in
soil.[29][30][31]
Terminology
Before the 1980s, it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased
greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air
pollution. Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human
impacts on the climate at this time.[32] In the 1980s, the terms global
warming and climate change became more common, often being used
interchangeably.[33][34][35] Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased global
average surface temperature, while climate change describes both global warming
and its effects on Earth's climate system, such as precipitation changes.[32]
Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the
climate that have happened throughout Earth's history.[36] Global warming—used as
early as 1975[37]—became the more popular term after NASA climate scientist James
Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate.[38] Since the 2000s, usage
of climate change has increased.[39] Various scientists, politicians and media may use
the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may
use the term global heating instead of global warming.[40][41]
Global temperature rise
Further information: Global surface temperature
Temperatures prior to present-day global warming
Main articles: Climate variability and change; Temperature record of the last 2,000
years; and Paleoclimatology
Global surface
temperature reconstruction over the past 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals,
and ice cores in blue.[42] Directly observed data is in red.[43]
Over the last few million years the climate cycled through ice ages. One of the hotter
periods was the Last Interglacial, around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures
were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming.
[44]
This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent
glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea
levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today.[45]
Temperatures stabilized in the current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years
ago.[46] This period also saw the start of agriculture.[47] Historical patterns of warming
and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at
the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as
those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions.[48][49] Climate information for
that period comes from climate proxies, such as trees and ice cores.[50][51]
Warming since the Industrial Revolution
In recent decades, new high temperature
records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of
Earth's surface.[52] There has been an
increase in ocean heat content during recent decades as the oceans absorb over 90% of
the heat from global warming.[53]
Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage.[54] Between the
18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of
greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions.
Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain, but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the
atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming. After 1970, the
increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to
a marked increase in temperature.[55][56][57]
Duration: 30 seconds.0:30NASA animation portraying global surface temperature changes
since 1880. The colour blue denotes cooler temperatures and red denotes warmer
temperatures. As reference value the mean temperature from 1951 to 1980 is used.
Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years.
[58]
Multiple datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature,[59] at a rate
of around 0.2 °C per decade.[60] The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average
1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).[61] Not
every single year was warmer than the last: internal climate variability processes can
make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average.[62] From 1998 to 2013,
negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
[63]
and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)[64] caused a short slower period of
warming called the "global warming hiatus".[65] After the "hiatus", the opposite
occurred, with 2024 well above the recent average at more than +1.5 °C.[66] This is
why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces
the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-
term signal.[67]: 5 [68]
A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming.[69][70] The upper
atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the
Earth's surface, and so less heat is radiating into space.[71] Warming reduces average
snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers. At the same time, warming also
causes greater evaporation from the oceans, leading to more atmospheric humidity,
more and heavier precipitation.[72][73] Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and
thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas.[74]
Differences by region
Different regions of the world warm at different rates. The pattern is independent of
where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to
diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface
temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global
average surface temperature.[75] This is because oceans lose more heat
by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat.[76] The thermal energy in the global
climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90%
of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean.[77][78] The rest has heated
the atmosphere, melted ice, and warmed the continents.[79]
The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the
South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much
more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice. As these surfaces flip
from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they
start absorbing more heat.[80] Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also
contribute to Arctic warming.[81] Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between
three and four times faster than in the rest of the world.[82][83] Melting of ice sheets near
the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline
circulation, which further changes the distribution of heat and precipitation around
the globe.[84][85][86][87]
Future global temperatures
CMIP6 multi-model projections
of global surface temperature changes for the year 2090 relative to the 1850–1900 average.
The current trajectory for warming by the end of the century is roughly halfway between
these two extremes.[23][88][89]
The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is almost a 50% chance of
the five-year average global temperature exceeding +1.5 °C between 2024 and
2028.[90] The IPCC expects the 20-year average to exceed +1.5 °C in the early
2030s.[91]
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global
warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions
of greenhouse gases, 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario, or 3.3–
5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario.[92] The warming will continue past 2100
in the intermediate and high emission scenarios,[93][94] with future projections of global
surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago.[95]
The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases is
determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse
gases.[96] According to UNEP, global warming can be kept below 2.0 °C with a 50%
chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 900 gigatonnes of CO2. This carbon
budget corresponds to around 16 years of current emissions.[97]
Causes of recent global temperature rise
Main article: Causes of climate change
Physical drivers of global warming that
has happened so far. Future global warming potential for long lived drivers like carbon
dioxide emissions is not represented. Whiskers on each bar show the possible error range.
The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years,
decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in
surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling.[98] Their relative
frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale.[99] Other
changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings.[100] Examples
of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar
luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.[101]
To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all
potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and
known internal climate variability.[102] For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint
involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower
atmosphere has warmed.[103] Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect.
Other drivers, such as changes in albedo, are less impactful.[104]
Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse gas emissions, Greenhouse effect,
and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000
years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)
Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the
atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and
greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which
heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over
time.[105]
While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the
greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are
therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity. On the
other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone,
[106]
CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature,
and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global
temperatures.[107]
Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases
caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in
their absence.[108][109] Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting
and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas),[110] has increased the amount of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO2 and
methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750.[111] These
CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 14 million
years.[112] Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last
800,000 years.[113]
The Global Carbon Project shows how
additions to CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after
another.
Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent
to 59 billion tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 75% was CO2, 18% was methane,
4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases.[114] CO2 emissions primarily
come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport,
manufacturing, heating, and electricity.[5] Additional CO2 emissions come
from deforestation and industrial processes, which include the CO2 released by the
chemical reactions for making cement, steel, aluminium, and fertilizer.[115][116][117]
[118]
Methane emissions come from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills,
wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas extraction.[119][120] Nitrous oxide
emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer.[121][122]
While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years,[123] CO2 lasts
much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of the carbon cycle. While
plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO2 every year,
that CO2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or
decays.[124] Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil
and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO2 emissions.[125] The
ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO2 over the last two decades.[126] CO2 is
only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's
crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete.[124]
Land surface changes
The rate of global tree cover loss has
approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.[127]
Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (glaciers, deserts,
etc.), 26% is forests, 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land.
[128]
Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming,[129] as the
destroyed trees release CO2, and are not replaced by new trees, removing
that carbon sink.[130] Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from
permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another
24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural
systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have
accounted for the remaining 23%.[131] Some forests have not been fully cleared, but
were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their
potential as a carbon sink.[132]
Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into
space (albedo), and how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change
from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more
sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that
influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.[133] In tropic and temperate areas the
net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local
temperatures cooler.[132] At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as
forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.[133] Globally, these
increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature
from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight
cooling effect.[134]
Other factors
Aerosols and clouds
Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale.[135] Aerosols
scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the
amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is
popularly known as global dimming,[136] and is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols
produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal
and bunker fuel.[57] Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion
of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust.[137][138][139] Globally, aerosols have been
declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask
greenhouse gas warming as much.[140][57]
Aerosols also have indirect effects on the Earth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act
as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud
droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer
and larger droplets.[141] They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes
clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[142] Indirect effects of aerosols are the
largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[143]
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black
carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only
does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level
rise.[144] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming
by 0.2 °C by 2050.[145] The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since
2020[146] is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean
temperature by 2050.[147]
Solar and volcanic activity
Further information: Solar activity and climate
The Fourth National Climate
Assessment ("NCA4", USGCRP, 2017) includes charts illustrating that neither solar nor
volcanic activity can explain the observed warming.[148][149]
As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight
directly affect the climate system.[143] Solar irradiance has been measured directly
by satellites,[150] and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s
onwards.[143] Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's
energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere
(the troposphere).[151] The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) would also be
warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been
cooling.[103] This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the
Earth's atmosphere.[152]
Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block
sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the
atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.[153] These
impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and
volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere.[154] volcanic
CO2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of
current human-caused CO2 emissions.[155] Volcanic activity still represents the single
largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the
other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends
since the Industrial Revolution.[154]
Climate change feedbacks
Main articles: Climate change feedbacks and Climate sensitivity