Four-Step Traffic Forecasting Model
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ScribdTranslationsFour-Step Traffic Forecasting Model
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ScribdTranslationsMODEL: "4-STEPS" (FOUR - STEP ALGORITHM.
This procedure, initially developed in the 1950s, uses aggregated data from
territory subdivisions (traffic analysis area) to estimate trips with the network
actual
1. Generation of trips
2. Distribution of trips
3. Modal selection
4. Route selection
1. Generation of trips:
This step aims to transform the demographic, economic, and land use attributes.
from each zone, in trips generated by it. The prediction of the total trips is made by
zone. Each zone produces or attracts travel. The production of travel is associated with the
characteristics of the resident population of the area, while the attraction of
Travel is related to the other economic activities carried out in the area.
2. Travel distribution:
In this step, each of the trips produced in different pairs are joined.
areas (of the travel generation step) with some of the different places in other areas
or in the same area. The result is a table of trips between the different areas of
model, known as origin-destination matrix or O-D matrix. The matrix shows the amount
of trips from each of the origins "i" to each of the destinations "j".
In the matrix of size m x n, where:
T ij : trips from origin i to destination j.
P 1: total trips produced in zone 1.
A 1: total trips attracted in zone 1.
3. Modal selection:
Each individual maximizes their utility
Each individual acts rationally
This implies that two people under the same conditions (for example, in the same
origin that wants to go to the same destination and has socioeconomic characteristics
Similar ones can choose different travel alternatives (e.g., bus vs. taxi).
4. Route selection:
It allows obtaining as the final result of the model, the number of trips that pass through
each of the arches in different modes. Thus, based on the principle of the
minimization of travel time and that travel time increases with congestion,
(red vial, public transport network, pedestrian network, etc.) determine which route they will take
travelers.
Traditional traffic forecasting has been based on four-stage models.
which were initially developed at the computer level in transportation studies
held in Chicago and Detroit in 1950.