1.

1 Back ground of the study

The history of urban expansion indicates that urban areas are the most dynamic places on the earth’s
surface. Despite their regional importance, urban expansion has a considerable impact on mostly towards
the urban-rural-fringe where there are less built-up areas and existences of different natural resources.
The rapid population growth of the world in general, and in urban areas in particular, has resulted in
uncontrolled haphazard growth in the fringes of urban areas without the knowledge and permission of
both concerned towns’ and bordering rural administrative institutions. This uncontrolled expansion which
often appears in a dispersed manner along highways, or around developmental infrastructures such as
universities and hospitals has pervasively been affecting the existing natural resources in the urban fringe.
Urban expansion is a dynamic global phenomenon that reflects the continuous transformation of rural
landscapes into urbanized environments. Over the past few decades, cities around the world have
experienced unprecedented growth driven by population increase, industrialization, and socioeconomic
development. According to the United Nations (2022), over 56% of the world’s population resides in
urban areas, and this figure is projected to reach nearly 68% by 2050. This rapid urbanization presents
both opportunities and challenges—particularly in developing nations where agricultural land serves as
the primary livelihood source for the majority of the population.

In Africa, urban growth is accelerating at an estimated annual rate of 4.1%, making it the fastest-
urbanizing continent globally (World Bank, 2023). This transformation, while signaling economic
progress, often comes at the cost of prime agricultural lands that are converted into residential,
commercial, and industrial areas. The consequence is the shrinking of cultivable land, reduced
agricultural productivity, and disruption of rural livelihoods (FAO, 2020). Urban expansion, therefore,
has become one of the key drivers of land use change in the developing world.
Ethiopia, similar to other Sub-Saharan African countries, has been experiencing a remarkable rise in
urbanization. The country’s urban population has grown from 11% in 1984 to over 23% in 2023 (Central
Statistics Agency [CSA], 2023). The government’s focus on economic development and urban
infrastructure has spurred the expansion of cities and towns such as Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar, Gondar, and
Hawassa. However, the growth of these urban centres has often occurred in an unplanned manner,
leading to the conversion of fertile agricultural land into non-agricultural uses (Haregeweyn et al., 2012).
This poses significant challenges for sustainable land management and food security.

The process of urban expansion is a worldwide phenomenon, recorded in the history of all urban centers.
It started with the earliest human civilization of Babylonians (Firew.B, 2010). Urban expansion is
spontaneous phenomenon that leads to spontaneous growth by displacing rural and urban farming
community and also decreasing the amount of land available for agricultural land (Tamirat.M, 2016).
Urbanization is the process of urban expansion, may involve horizontal expansion of the physical
structure of urban areas, and result in loss of agricultural land, natural beauties, range lands, parks and
sceneries (Teketel.F, 2015).

The population of the world becomes more urbanized and cities grow from time to time. This happen
because, urban areas have been playing a major role as the center of industry, information,
communication, trade, education, skilled lab our, research, bank and finance. Due to the presence of these
conditions the population moves from rural to urban area and the urban population become increasing
from time to time (Afolabi. A, 2008). In the 1950 the world urban populations were about 746 million,
which is 30% of the world population, but in 2014 it reaches 3.9 billion, which, is 54% and by 2050 this
condition will also increase and reached 66% % (UNESA. 2014).

The growth of cities in the developing world is dynamic, diverse and disordered. The rapid urban
expansion requires a large amount of land, mostly prime agricultural land to be converted to urban land
use (e.g., residential construction, social service and infrastructural development) (UNFPA, 2007). The
expansion of urban area particularly in the developing world is taking place on agricultural land
(Feyera.A, 2005). The rate of urbanization in developing countries like Africa and Asia is so high; Africa
and Asia are becoming, urbanized more rapidly than other regions of the world (UNESA, 2014). In
African nations, agricultural production and land use in areas that surround urban centers have been
affected by urban expansion (Simon.D et al, 2004). The combined effect of primary cities and over urban
expansion are the main cause for the reduction of productive agricultural land which is the backbone of
the developing country's economy (Eyaya.B, 2014).

Ethiopia has a long history of urbanization that developed next to the ancient Egyptian civilization in East
Africa like Axum, Lalibela, Gondar and Harar and then finally Addis Ababa become the capital city of
the country. The Ethiopian urban centers are expanding at an alarming rate (4.3%) that resulting in losing
of many very productive agricultural lands. the human population has lived rural lifestyle practicing and
gathering for survival. Then the human population transformed in to agriculturally productivity and lived
sedimentary ways of life in order to create villages, (Kent, 2007).

Rural over crowing of population number mobilized the people towards the cities (Teferi, 2006)
according to the (World Bank, 2005), urbanization at the current situation, is increasing both developed
and developing countries. As the report shows population growth is one of major factor of urban
expansion. This has been evidenced by the fact that, the world population rose dramatically from 13% in
1900, 29% in 1970. More over in 2000, 47% of the global population lived in urban area and an
estimated 65% is projected to live in cities by 2030(UNPD, 2009).

The rate of population growth in developing countries very high as compared to developed countries.
Report in regard to future trends. it is estimated that 93% of the urban growth was occurred in developed
nations, with urban growth occurring in Asia and Africa. Moreover, in most developing countries rural to
urban immigration contributes more for the fast’s urban growth which about 54%per annum (Gurgler,
1996). Due to this fast increasing of urbanization in developing countries; sprawls of building; projects,
services land utilization on agriculture lands to non-agricultural activities led to losses huge areas
agricultural land, that drivers the change in land use cover patterns, which may also have adverse on
ecology of the area (long,2008).

This was happened by displacing the agricultural land owners from their agricultural land. The
conversion of agricultural land in to urban use has negative consequence on agricultural land. Some of
these problems are reduces the amount of agricultural land, loss of the most productive agricultural land,
food insufficiency, poverty, loss of job opportunity from agricultural sector, and land disputes.

In Habru Woreda, particularly in Mersa Town, urban expansion has increasingly posed a serious threat to
surrounding agricultural lands. The continued growth of the town is pushing into farmlands that local
communities have long depended on for their livelihoods. This trend is not only reducing the amount of
productive land but also disrupting the socio-economic stability of farmers. This alarming transformation
is what motivated us to conduct this research. Researchers aim to assess how urban expansion in Mersa
Town is affecting agricultural land use and to provide concrete data that can support informed planning
and policymaking to balance urban growth with agricultural sustainability.

Urbanization is an inevitable part of economic development. Urbanization results into changes in the
landscape, specifically the proliferation of concrete and impervious surfaces, and the displacement of
agriculture and forestland. Understanding these interactions between human activities and their
consequences in landscape, is especially important in areas of the world that are experiencing rapid
change, where the cumulative impacts of development may be realized too late to trigger mitigation
measures. The combined effect of primary cities and over urbanization are the main cause for the
reduction of productive agricultural land which is the backbone of the developing country’s economy.
This very rapid growth area experience large rural-urban fringes, where the intermingling of land use
such as rural settlement, modern residential place, industries urban based agriculture out town retailing
and service centers occur. This assumption of economic activities, often have a profound effect on peri-
urban area. (Robinson, 2003). Changes in land use and land cover can have wide-ranging environmental
consequences. These include loss of biodiversity, changes in emissions of trace gases affecting climate
change, changes in hydrology and soil degradation. Moreover, changes in land use and land cover can
influence the vulnerability of people and places to environmental perturbations by, for example,
influencing the spread of infectious diseases, interfering with the migration of species and affecting the
risk of natural hazards (Meyer and Turner 1992). The transformation process creates several problems
through the expansion of urban land use at the expense of food production. Losses of agricultural land to
other uses were undoubtedly substantial in developing countries. In the world with limited food supplies
the loss of farm land development is a series of concern. (Khan, 1900). Collecting, analyzing and
maintaining data about the rapid and un-controlled pace of urbanization can be considered as the major
pitfalls of African governments. This has resulted a proliferation of informal and illegal tenure
arrangements (Mobogunja, 1992). Food security is a major challenge of many African countries, yet but
cities with greater size are those which situated in the most productive agricultural areas, where they can
produce the surplus product to provide reasonable food and industrial inputs to that particular area in
particular and the country in general (Clark, 1982). Since Gondar is found in developing countries, that
are Ethiopia, it has been experiencing rapid agricultural land use transformation to urban land use due to
extensive urban expansion. The general objective of the study is to assess the impact of urban expansion
on the agricultural land use Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information system (GIS).

Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa (more than 109 million people) with a total area of
1.1 million km2 and lies in the north eastern part of the Horn of Africa (World Bank Group, 2019).
Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy, of which 80.5% of the rural population relies on
agriculture for their livelihoods. This particular sector determines the growth of all other sectors and
consequently the whole national economy. It constitutes over 50% of the gross domestic product (GDP),
accounts for over 85% of the labor force, and generates over 90% of the foreign exchange (ECA, 2016;
Welteji, 2018). The land tilled by Ethiopian small-scale farmers accounts for 95% of the total area under
agricultural use, and these farmers are responsible for more than 90% of the total agricultural output
(Gebreselassie and Bekele, 2012). In economic theory, land is regarded as a special asset providing space
for locating economic activities, infrastructure, and dwellings, as well as amenity services and aesthetic
value (Van Der Veen & Otter, 2001; Hubacek and Van Den Bergh, 2002; Aribigbola, 2008). In
developing countries, most people rely on agricultural production, making land an important asset
(Tuyen, 2013). Yet, this valuable and scarce resource is in fixed supply (Azadi Et Al., 2011), requiring
sustainable utilization.
Therefore, any change to the agricultural land use in these countries requires thoughtful planning to both
conserve the land and reduce the risks of undermining the livelihoods of the people. However, existing
literature shows that economic growth and persistent urbanization is an unavoidable global phenomenon
that initiates urban encroachment into agricultural land (Paul & McKenzie, 2012; Dadi Et Al., 2016).
While some studies state positive outcomes from the conversion of agricultural land in local communities
since urbanization transforms a backward and agricultural country to become modern and industrial. As a
result of an increase in non-food producers and their average incomes, it often provides growing demands
for agricultural products and for higher value products that bring benefits to farmers (Melese, 2004;
Satterthwaite Et. Al., 2010). However, others argue against positive impact and report negative
consequences because in most urban areas in low- and middle-income nations, the absence of land-use
planning or a strategic planning framework to guide land-use changes leads to urban areas expanding
haphazardly (Nguyen VU and Philippe, 2011; Nguyen & HO, 2013; Pribadi and Paulet, 2015; Fenta Et.
Al., 2017; Eniyew, 2018). Urbanization rates are quickly increasing in developing countries, with two-
thirds of the world’s population anticipated to be living in cities by 2050 (UN population division, 2014).
A typical characteristic of urban areas in developing nations are the informal settlements caused by the
large influx of populations from other semi-urban or rural areas (Chirisa, 2008). Rapid population growth
and the related need for housing and other amenities have resulted in an increasing urbanized land cover,
mostly along major roads and in rural countryside, which is typically scattered and inefficient in resource
utilization (Ewing and Hamidi, 2015). Currently, Ethiopia has been experiencing a rapid urbanization
process since the implementation of an economic development and privatization policy to stimulate
national economic growth (Adam, 2016). In the country, the population living in cities is expected to
grow from 15.2 million in 2012 to 42.3 million by 2034, corresponding to an annual growth of 5.4%
(World bank, 2015). The share of the population living in cities has increased from an estimated 7.1% in
1994 (Schmidt and Kedir, 2009) to 16% in 2008 (Abebe, 2006) and is expected to reach 60% by 2040 at
the current annual growth rate of 3.5% (Desa, 2014). In the next decades, Ethiopia will be building its
cities in which it will then have to live for many generations. Given the 2.73% total annual population
growth rate, the high rate of migration to towns, and the increase in the number of urban centres, the rate
of urbanization is increasing at a rate of 4.4% (Tadesse and Headey, 2010). Furthermore, the country’s
urban population is expected to grow on average by 3.98% annually, and by 2050, about 42.1% of the
total population is expected to inhabit urban centres (Tessema, 2017; UN-Habitat, 2010). The urban
growth in Ethiopia, and likely in many African cities, is generally characterized by a lack of adequate
planning or a lack of the implementation of plans, resulting in cities that often have a shortage of the
necessary infrastructure and services (Haregeweyn Et Al., 2012; Mudhco, 2014; Zewdie Et Al., 2018).
This has contributed to fragmented urban landscape patterns along major roadways to its rural fringes
especially in the regional cities. In the past couple of decades, regional cities in Ethiopia have grown
faster than the capital city, Addis Ababa (UN-Habitat, 2017). Peri-urban areas surrounding the urban
areas are characterized as one of the most vulnerable geographic areas for the rapid conversion of a large
amount of prime agricultural land to urban areas that makes farmers loss of livelihood assets (Muluwork,
2014; Wegedie, 2018). As a result, large numbers of local landholders, who mainly engage in agricultural
activity for their livelihood, have been forced to lose their land rights (Adam, 2014). Several studies
(Kasa Et Al, 2011; Worku, 2019; Ahlam, 2017; Fenta Et Al., 2017; Eniyew, 2018) have confirmed that
there have been considerable losses of areas of agricultural land use cover in Ethiopia during recent
decades. In most instances, there is little effective control over land-use conversions from agriculture to
non-agricultural uses. There may be regulations that are meant to limit these conversions but these are
often avoided by politicians and real estate agents. As a result of this, agricultural land, which is the
mainstay of the livelihoods for majority of people in the country, is decreasing day by day. Generally,
such land-use conversion often reduces the most fertile land, and therefore the impact on agricultural
production and food security is often larger than the absolute amount of land involved (Naab Et Al.,
2013; Shishay, 2011). Policies that ensure a just and equitable compensation for such expropriated
farmers remain necessary (Muluwork, 2014). Hence, a better understanding of the spatial and temporal
dynamics of urban growth and their impact on the small-scale farmer’s life in the surroundings are
required. However, urbanization and its impact on agricultural land has not been extensively reviewed
and documented. Thus, as a response to the existing information gap, this review article has attempted to
assess the effect of rapid urbanization on agricultural land in Ethiopia.

Globally, the relationship between urban expansion and agricultural land use is complex. While
urbanization can stimulate local economies and create employment opportunities, it often leads to a
decline in food production, displacement of farming communities, and social inequities (Seto, Güneralp,
& Hutyra, 2012). In Ethiopia, where agriculture contributes nearly 33% of the national GDP and employs
over 70% of the population (MoA, 2023), safeguarding agricultural land is crucial for maintaining food
security and rural stability. Therefore, assessing the effects of urban expansion on agricultural land use is
essential for achieving sustainable urban development and balanced land resource management.
This research investigates how urban expansion in Mersa Town affects agricultural land use and the
socioeconomic conditions of local farmers. By examining land use changes, identifying the driving
factors behind expansion, and analysing the consequences for agriculture, the study contributes valuable
insights to policymakers, urban planners, and development practitioners working toward sustainable land
administration.