CHAPTER 3: ENVIRONMENT

LESSON 3
Warmer World Threatens Livelihoods in South East Asia
Already vulnerable region face rising sea-levels, ocean warming, and more intense
typhoons, says new report
WASHINGTON, D.C., June 19, 2013 – The rising possibility of a warmer world in the next two
decades is magnifying the development challenges South East Asia is already struggling with, and
threatens to reverse hard-won development gains, according to a new scientific report released
today by the World Bank Group.
Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience, was
prepared for the World Bank by the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate
Analytics. It builds on a World Bank report released late last year, which concluded the world
would warm by 4⁰C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century without concerted action
now. This new report looks at the likely impact of present day (0.8⁰C), 2⁰C and 4⁰C warming on
agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across Sub-Saharan Africa,
South Asia and South East Asia. ‘South East Asia’ includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and
Vietnam.
“This new report outlines an alarming scenario for the days and years ahead – what we could
face in our lifetime,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “The scientists tell us
that if the world warms by 2⁰C – warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years – that will cause
widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves and more intense cyclones. In the near-
term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could greatly harm the lives and the hopes of
individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth’s temperature.
The report synthesizes the most current peer-reviewed literature and supplement it with computer
modeling. It describes two scenarios: An extreme 4⁰C warming and a more modest 2⁰C warming.
The report reveals how rising global temperature are increasingly threatening the health and
livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations. In Sub-Saharan Africa, food shortages will
become more common, while in South Asia, shifting rain patterns will leave some areas under
water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation or drinking. In South East
Asia, the degradation and loss of coral reefs will diminish tourism, reduce fish stocks, and leave
coastal communities and cities more vulnerable to storms.
Countries in the South East Asia region are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, increases in
heat extremes, increased intensity of tropical cyclones and ocean warming and acidification
because many are archipelagoes located within a tropical cyclone belt and ha ve relatively high
coastal population densities.
“Many South East Asian countries are already taking concerted action to address the impacts of
climate change, but this report tells us that we need to do much more. We need to both intensify
and accelerate these actions to reduce the ever-increasing vulnerability of populations to climate
risk, especially the poor and vulnerable,” said Alex van Trotsenburg, World Bank Vice
President for East Asia and Pacific
The report examines the most significant climate risks for South East Asia in a 2⁰C world:

 Sea levels are rising faster than previously projected and cyclones will intensify. The
report finds that a sea-level rise as much as 50cm by the 2050s may already be unavoidable
as a result of past emissions, and in some cases, impacts could be felt much earlier. This
will cause greater destruction and result in flooding fields for extended periods, and
inundate delta areas with intrusions of salt water salt water into fields and in groundwater
used for drinking. The report also projects that typhoons will increase in intensity (category
4 and 5).

The three river deltas of the Mekong, Irrawaddy and the Chao Phraya – all with significant
land areas below 2m above sea level – are particularly at risk. Agriculture, aquaculture,
fisheries, and tourism are the most expose sectors to climate change in these deltas. Coastal
cities, with their concentration of increasingly large populations and physical assets, are
also highly exposed to increased storm intensity, long-term sea-level rise, and sudden onset
coastal flooding. Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila and Yangon are among the
cities that are projected to be most affected.
 Coral reefs will come under severe stress. With increasing ocean acidification, there is a
high risk (50 percent probability) of annual coral reef bleaching events occurring as early
as 2030. Projections indicate that all coral reefs in South East Asia are likely to experience
severe stress by the year 2050, hurting marine fisheries, tourism and livelihoods. There are
about 138 million people living on coasts and within 30 kms of a coral reef who are likely
to suffer major social, economic, and nutritional impacts as a result of climate change.
 Rural and coastal livelihoods are threatened. The report projects that fish stocks in the
Java Sea and the Gulf of Thailand will suffer due to increased water temperature and
decreased oxygen levels, with very large reductions in average maximum fish body size by
2050. The Mekong Delta produces around 50 percent of Vietnam’s total agricultural
production and contributes significantly to the country’s rice exports. A sea-level rise of
30cm, which could occur as early as 2040, could result in the loss of about 12 percent of
rice production.
“Countries need support to help re-orient their development plans so that climate change
is factored into their planning process to build on efforts already underway. The
Government of Vietnam has sought Bank support to respond to the challenges of climate
change and the opportunity to shift to climate resilience, low-carbon growth, and the
Philippines has enacted a Climate Change Act and a National Disaster Risk Reduction and
Management law that marks a big improvement in how the country is dealing with the
challenge of climate change,” said van Trotsenburg
The evidence presented in the Turn Down the Heat series demonstrates the importance of the
World Bank Group’s climate change mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management work
to development and poverty reduction. The Bank is helping 130 countries across the globe take
action on climate change. Last year, it doubles its financial support for adaptation – from 2.3 billion
in fiscal year 2011 to 4.6 billion in fiscal year 2012. Increasingly the Bank is supporting action on
the ground to finance the kind of projects that help the poor grow their way out of poverty, increase
their resilience and reduce emissions:
 In the Philippines the biggest risks are due to more severe impacts storms will have on
informal settlements and coastal communities. The Bank is working with the Government
of the Philippines to enhance the country’s capacity to deal with climate impact as well as
help ensure its overall national public expenditure is appropriately targeted to deal with
these challenges. Together with other development partners, the Bank is also helping in the
preparations for priority projects that aim to improve flood management and resilience in
Metro Manila.
 In Vietnam some of the biggest impacts will be on flooding in urban areas due to the
impact of sea intrusion in the Mekong Delta. The Bank is working with the Government
of Vietnam on a series of policy actions to mitigate climate change impacts and is
discussing programs in Ho Chi Minh City and in the Mekong Delta to address some of
these threats.
 In Thailand the severe flooding suffered in Bangkok in 2011 was a precursor to what a
city can expect in a warming world. After the floods the Bank worked with the government
of Thailand to come up with recommendations on how to better manage of flooding.

4⁰C=7.2⁰F
2⁰C=3.6⁰F
The World Bank. Press Release. June 19, 2013.