CHAPTER - 2

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The earlier studies pertaining to the study on „Relationship between Climate

Change, Green House Gas Emissions and Productivity of Major Food Crops in
India –Time Series Analysis’ are discussed under the following headings:
Studies on Climate Change
Studies on Relationship between Green House Gas Emission,
Climate Change and Agriculture
Studies on Climate Change
The studies showed that there was significant increase in the surface
temperature in Inida (Hingane, 1985, Srivastava et al., 1992, Rupa Kumar et al., 1994,
De and Mukhopadhyay, 1998, Pant et al., 1999, Singh et al., 2001, Singh and
Sontakke, 2002). The studies reported that there was no significant trend in rainfall on
all India basis (Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984, Pant and Rupakumar, 1997,
Pant et al., 1999, Stephenson et al., 2001). At regional level, rainfall had shown an
either decreasing or increasing trend. (Chowdhury and Abhyankar, 1979,
Rupa Kumar et al., 1992, Kripalani et al., 1996, Singh and Sontakke, 2002, 2003).

The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the anticipated

climate change due to global warming were likely to affect future global agricultural
production through changes in the rate of plant growth (Lemon, 1983, Cure and
Acock, 1986, Rotter and Van de Geijn, 1999), transpiration rate (Morison, 1987,
McNaughton and Jarvis, 1991, Jacobs and DeBruin, 1992). The concentration of
carbon emission was likely to be doubled by the end of 21st century
(Keelinget, 1995). Measurement in Delhi also showed similar trend
(Uprety, 2003).

Dubhashi (1992) reported that drought was a major problem in India during
the post-independence period. In India, there were two to three bad seasons for every
good season.

Bazzaz et al. (1996) viewed that for satisfying human wants, a large amount
of fossil fuels had been burned. The burned fossil fuels emitted large amount of green
house gases that entered into the atmosphere and these gases caused green house

16
effect. Fifty per cent of the emitted green house gases were absorbed by oceans and
forest and the rest remained in the atmosphere and created many changes in the
climate and weather.

Kothyari et al. (1996) studied the trends in the temperature and rainfall
patterns of Ganga basin in India. The study revealed that rainfall variables had a
decreasing trend and temperature had an increasing trend. In addition to it, they
observed that these trends had begun around the second half of the 1960s and had
implications on the Indian economy.

Chattopadhyay et al. (1997) analyzed evaporation time series data for different
stations in India and for the country as a whole. They analyzed for different seasons
on both a short term (15 years) and long term (32 years) basis for pan evaporation and
on a short term basis alone for potential evapotranspiration. The findings of the study
showed that both pan evaporation and potential evapotranspiration had decreased
during recent years in India.

Ravindranath et al. (1998) studied the changes in temperature, rainfall and soil
moisture at regional level for India under two scenarios, the first involving green
house gas forcing, and the second, sulphate aerosols. Under the former model, a
general increase in temperature and rainfall in all regions was indicated. Under the
second model, it was found that the boundary of the forest would be affected. It was
also found that moderate increase in temperature and decline in precipitation in the
second model.

Goyal (2004) conducted a study on the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to

global warming for arid regions of Rajasthan. The Penman Monteith equation was
used to estimate evapotranspiration and sensitivity. It was studied in terms of change
in temperature solar radiation, wind speed and vapor pressure within a possible range
of + 20% from the normal long term meteorological parameters of 32 years (1971:
2002). The study suggested an increase of 14.8% of total ET (evapotranspiration)
demand with increase in temperature by 20% (max. 8°C). ET (evapotranspiration) is
less sensitive (11%) to increase in net solar radiation, followed by wind speed (7%) in
comparison to temperature. Increase in vapour pressure (20%) had a small negative
effect on ET evapotranspiration (-4.31%). A 10% increase in temperature and actual
vapour pressure coupled with 10% decrease in net solar radiation could as result even

17
in marginal decrease of total ET (evapotranspiration) (0.30%). He suggested that a
marginal increase in ET demand due to global warming would have a larger impact
on resource poor, fragile arid zone ecosystem of Rajasthan.

Indian council of social research (2004) studied the trend in temperature in

India. The analysis of data for the period 1901 to 2005 indicated increase in the
annual mean temperature by 0.5°C. The long term variation of the mean annual
temperature of the country for the period 1874 to 2004 was in the order of 0.03°C per
decade while for the period 1971 to 2004 it was around 0.22°C per decade indicating
greater warming in the recent decades (ICAR).

Manohar et al. (2005) studied the trend in temperature in India. The study was
carried out by 125 stations distributed all over India. The non-parametric Mann-
Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal
temperature. The findings of the study showed that the mean maximum temperature
and mean minimum temperature had increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09 0 C in
the hundred years in winter, pre monsoon, monsoon and post monsoon seasons
respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India showed a
rising trend of 1.06 0C and 0.360C in one hundred years.

Dash (2007) reported that in India, since 1971, the number of fog days was on
the increasing trend in Indian cities as the CO2 emission in cities was very high.
Between 1900 and 2003, district-wise rainfall data showed that annual rainfall had
been increasing in 23 districts and decreasing in 48 districts. The other districts
showed no significant change. Further 80 per cent of the rain fell within 100 days
during the summer monsoon period. Thus rainfall was excess in some places and
deficit in some other places.

Indian Council of Agriculture Research (2007), analyzed long term

(1952 - 2007) mean annual temperature trends of 47 locations spread across the
country. It indicated increasing trends in temperature was observed in some parts of
Gujarat, Konkan Region, North west parts of Madhya Pradesh and Eastern Rajasthan.

Singh et al (2008) studied over the seasonal and annual trends of changes in
rainfall, rainy days, heaviest rain and relative humidity for nine different river basins
in northwest and central India. Majority of river basins had shown increasing trends
both in annual rainfall and relative humidity. The magnitude of increased rainfall for

18
considered river basins varied from 2-19 per cent of mean per 100 years. The seasonal
analysis showed maximum increase in rainfall in the post monsoon followed by the
pre- monsoon season. There were least variations in the monsoon rainfall during the
last century and winter rainfall had shown a decreasing trend. Most of the river basins
had experienced decreasing trends in annual rainy days with a maximum decrease in
Mahanadi Basin. The heaviest rain of the year had increased from 9-27mm per 100
years over different river basins with a maximum of 27mm for Brahamani and
Subaranretha river basins. Here a combination of increase in heaviest rainfall and
reduction in the number of rainy days suggested the possibility of increasing severity
of floods. Such information was useful in the planning, development and management
of water resources in the study area.

Further they mentioned that majority of river basins had experienced

increasing trend in relative humidity. In six river basins, the increase in relative
humidity was ranged between 1-18 per cent per 100 years, while a decrease for 3 river
basins from -1 to -13 percent of mean per 100 years was observed, providing a net
increase in the study area by 2-4 percent of mean per 100 years. The increase in extent
of vegetation cover as well as rainfall over the last century had increased the moisture
in the atmosphere through enhanced evapotranspiration, which in turn had increased
the relative humidity.

Raj (2008), stated that the rainfall never had been distributed evenly or equally
all over India. In some parts, there was excess rainfall and flood and some other parts
were affected by droughts. During the year 2007, in the South-West monsoon, there
was an excess rainfall beyond the average level in South India. But during 2008,
many parts of South India had drought. Up to July 15 in 2008, the southern parts of
India received 34 per cent deficit rainfall and central parts of India received
three percent deficit rainfall than the normal level. But the North West parts received
77 percent surplus rainfall. Further 100 years rainfall data from 1901 showed that
29 percent of the total annual rainfall occurred in July and August, while June and
September received 19 per cent. The Meteorological data further revealed that, the
contribution of June and August rainfall showed an increasing trend and the
contribution of July rainfall showed a declining trend.

Revi (2008), reported that the past 100 years data showed that the mean sea
level increased was one millimetre per year. Many studies projected that after 1950,

19
the sea level raised at a rate of 2.5 mm per year and caused damage to coastal
ecosystem.

Bhatta (2009) assessed the rainfall and temperature pattern for the past
50 years in India. In India, rising average wind speed was responsible for the increase
in temperature. Due to high evaporation, rising sea surface temperature and air
temperature, high intensity rain occurs. The occurrence of extreme rainfall was
increasing and moderate rainfall was decreasing. But moderate rainfall was needed for
crop growth. Extreme rainfall above 150 mm per day had increased by 10 percent per
decade for the past 50 years. Besides, after 1980, the temperature in the winter was
more than that of in the summer. The maximum winter temperature was
1.25°Celsius, summer temperature was 0.7° Celsius and the minimum temperature
was 0.7°Celsius in winter and 0.3° Celsius in summer across the country. Winter
season temperature in North India was more than in South India. North India was
affected by cold wave in 2002-03 but heat wave in 2003-04.

Swaminathan (2009) pointed out that, not only the rainfall, but also the
distribution of rainfall was very important for the survival of crops, cattle and to
maintain food security. Temperature variation, frequent droughts and floods were
caused by climate changes. Climate was not consistent in India. Regions facing
drought during the month of June and July face floods in August and September.
Moreover most of the rainfall occurred within 100 hours of a year. This rainfall
situation was not good for production and productivity of many crops and affected the
livelihood of poor adversely.

Bala (2009) stated that the main reason for the rise in average global
temperature was the increase in the concentration of green house gases such ascarbon-
di-oxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the chlorofluro carbons. Forty to fifty per cent of
these emissions were absorbed by the oceans and forests. This leads to rise in the
surface temperature of the oceans. It was estimated that by 2300, due to burning of
fossil fuels and CO2 emissions, the global average temperature would increase by
8°Celcius. The warming of globe had created many ill effects to the terrestrial and
marine ecosystems such as frequent heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, rise in the
sea level, melting of snow and ocean acidification. This view was upheld by Bazzaz
and Wim Sombroeck 1996.

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 Balaram (2009) noted that the changes in climatic conditions such as sea level
rise, melting of glaciers, variation in rainfall pattern, droughts and floods occured due
to the emission of carbon-di-oxide in the atmosphere caused by burning fossil fuels.
Based on the IPCC report, the study stated that by 2035 glaciers in Himalayas would
disappear completely as they melt faster than the glaciers anywhere in the world. The
author further stated that the melting of glaciers leads to water scarcity in the near
future.

Gahukar (2009) reported that as the global temperature was rising, the glaciers
were melting at a rapid rate. If the current trend continues, then it was projected that
by 2050, there would be no glacier in the world. As a result of melting of glaciers, sea
level raises and flood occurs

Prasad (2009) observed that green house effect occurs due to the increasing
amount of carbon-di-oxide in the atmosphere. The quantity of carbon-di-oxide in the
atmosphere increased due to the economic activities of human being such as
deforestation, burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas and
industrialisation. From 2001 onwards there was a heavy increase in the atmospheric
CO2 level. More than 50 per cent of the CO2 emitted was absorbed by oceans, but the
capacity of oceans to absorb CO2 had reduced from 27 per cent in 2000 to 24 per cent
in 2007.

Based on the trend of long term climate data, Chand (2009) reported that from
1972-73 to 2002-03 except the north eastern states, drought occurred frequently once
in five years. In Tamil Nadu it occured once in three years. Drought occurred due to
the failure of monsoon. Monbiot (2009) argued that, the present condition of climate
and weather could not be changed for the future, at least for thousand years, because
even if the current CO2 emissions was stopped completely, 40 per cent of the existing
carbon-di-oxide would remain in the atmosphere for thousand years. Further the
study reported that if thousand billion tonnes of carbon-di-oxide was emitted between
2000 and 2050, then the temperature will increase more than 2°Celcius. Thus if the
current emissions were not controlled, the CO2 concentration in atmosphere would
increase enormously.

Sud (2009) explored that climate and weather in India were changing over the
years since 1900. Global warming and changes in climatic conditions created many

21
adverse effects on the earth. This was evident from the fact that extreme weather
events such as cold spells, heat waves, floods and droughts occurred in different parts
of the country frequently. It was calculated that the mean annual temperature in India
was more than the normal since 1993. The long period average since 1901 indicated
that the mean annual temperature was 0.55 degree Celsius more than the normal level.
Climate data from 1957 to 2007 showed that, globally the cold days, nights and frost
formation were less frequent and the hot days, nights and the formation of heat waves
were more frequent. Further it was projected that by the end of the 21 century,
monsoon rainfall would increase by 15 to 31 per cent and the mean annual
temperature in India was expected to rise by three to six degree Celsius. The sea level
had risen at the rate of 1.8 mm per year since 1961. But after 1993, the sea level had
increased by 3.1 mm per year thereby damaging the coastal ecosystem. Thus in future,
the extreme climate events might increase to a large extent and create more damages
than the present level.

Stem (2009) reported all the economic activities had positive relationship
with the green house gas emission of the country and the final impact of emission fell
on human beings, because increased economic activities emitted a large quantum of
green house gas. These emissions resulted in rising temperature and melting of ice
during summer.

Somanathan (2009) observed that climate change had led to very high or low
precipitation. The magnitude and frequency of the high intensity rain was increasing
and the frequency of moderate rain was decreasing in India between 1951 and 2000.
This variation in precipitation leads to reduction in groundwater recharge. By 2025,
the per capita availability of water was predicted to decline below 1000 cubic meters.
Further if the Himalayan glaciers disappears, rivers in the indo gangetic plain would
dry and there would be low water availability during non-monsoon summer period.

Kapur et al., (2009) reported that if the current rate of CO2 emission
continues it would create very bad impact on the ecosystem. If the global temperature
increases about 2.5° Celsius higher than the pre-industrial level, the forests would lose
the carbon storing capacity and the ice sheets in the Arctic Ocean would completely
disappear by the end of the 21century. As for as India is concerned, by 2050, there
would be a heavy decline in the summer rainfall and the Semi-Arid regions of

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Western India would receive excess rainfall, but there would be a 10 to 20 per cent
decline in winter rainfall in the central India.

Joseph (2009) reported that the sea surface temperature in the equatorial
central Indian Ocean had increased by about 1.5 degree Celsius in the past 50 years.
Due to this reason, the monsoon heat engine had weakened and created heavy rainfall
in areas in the ocean near the equator. The strength of the low level monsoon winds
over peninsular India had been reduced by 20 per cent over the past 50 years. Further
the heating up of oceans reduced the number of depressions during the monsoon
period. The past 100 years data showed that rainfall in the regions like Kerala showed
declining trend and in the regions like Maharashtra a rising trend.

Aggarwall et al. (2010), reported that the precipitation pattern and water
resources were affected by global warming. Globally the frequencies of the
occurrence of heavy precipitation events showed an increasing trend and the annual
precipitation in the Western Africa showed a negative trend for 50 years from 1950.
In China, there was a decrease in the annual precipitation while the number of rainy
days and flood events had increased. It was projected that, by 2100, the global
temperature would increase between 1.1 degree Celsius and 6.4 degree Celsius.
Moreover the high latitude regions and tropics would receive more precipitation and
the sub-tropical and lower mid-latitude regions would receive less precipitation. By
the end of the 20th century, the 100 years data from 1901 showed that there was a 10
to 12 per cent increase in the trend of precipitation over the Western Coast, Northern
Andhra Pradesh and North-West India. On the other hand, a decreasing trend of six to
eight per cent precipitation observed along the eastern Madhya Pradesh, North- East
India and in some parts of Gujarat and Kerala. The study concluded that the climate
was highly uncertain globally due to global warming.

Yadugiri (2010) reported that, one third of the carbon from the atmosphere
was absorbed by the sea water. This reduced the ill effects of carbon in the
atmosphere. As more and more carbon-di-oxide dissolved in sea water, it reacted with
the sea water and the acidic level of sea water increased and ultimately it reduced its
pH level. Further, it was reported that at present, the concentration of carbon in the
atmosphere was 378 ppm. By 2100, this level would rise to more than 500 ppm. As a
result, it was estimated that by 2100, the ocean acidification would increase to
150 per cent from the level that was at the beginning of the industrial revolution.

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More CO2 and other green house gases dissolved in cold water of high latitude
regions than in other regions. Thus by 2100, 100 per cent of the sea water in the
Arctic region will be acidic.

Ramakrishnan (2010) reported that as per the Meteorological Department, the

state of Tamil Nadu had received excess rainfall during the South-West monsoon of
2010 after a gap of 14 years. The rainfall was 38 cm against the normal level of 31cm.

May (2011) reported that the green house gas emissions had increased the
global warming in India. Global warming had intensified the rainfall in South Asia.
However, precise assessments of future changes in the regional monsoon rainfall had
remained ambiguous due to wide variations among the model projections
( Fan et al., 2010, Kumar et al., 2011, Sabade et al., 2011). The simulated rainfall
response to global warming by climate models was actually accompanied by a
weakening of the southwest monsoon (Krishnan et al., 2013, Sabade et al., 2011)

Singh [Link] (2012) analysed the climate change reported that emissions from
human activities were increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. In
particular, there were likely to be many more heatwaves, droughts and changes in
rainfall patterns. The temperature was estimated to increase by 2 to 60 Celsius with in
year 2100,which was a tremendous increase from our current average temperature of
1.70 Celsius (IPCC).By the mid-2020s, sea level rised around Manhattan and long
Island could be up to 10 inches, assuming the rapid melting of polar sea ice continues.
By 2050, sea-rise could reach 2.5ft and more than 4.5ft by 2080 under the same
conditions. Global warming threatens the planet in a new and unexpected way-by
triggering earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches and volcanic eruptions. Irene-like storms
of the future would put a third of New York City streets under water and flood many
of the tunnels leading into Manhattan in under an hour because of climate change.

Muniyandi et al. (2012) reported that the compound annual growth rates of
carbon emission was 4.2 percent per annum in the period between 1990-2000. On a
sectoral basis, the highest growth rate in carbon emission was observed from the
industrial process sector (21.3 percent per annum) followed by the emission from the
waste sector (7.3 percent). The energy sector emission had grown by 4.4 percent per
annum with almost no increase in emission registered from the agriculture.

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 Hartmann (2013) reported that there was increase in the frequency of droughts
in West Africa and decrease in drought was observed in Central America and North
West Austalia.

Gudmundsson et al. (2016) and Gudmundsson et al. (2017) reported that the
increased human activities had increased the frequency of global drought.

Rashid Mahmood et al. (2019) studied the climate variability, trends and
prediction in the active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa. They reported that the
precipitation was likely to decrease and the temperature was predicted to increase in
the period 2024- 2020 in relation to the period of 2006 -2015. The temperature was
predicted to increase by 0.65 -1.60 and precipitation was predicted to decrease by
11- 13 percent in the next two decades of 2010 -2020 and 2026-2035 in relation to
1961-2025 and 2026 -2035 relative to 1961-1990.

Praveen, et al. (2020) analysed and forecasted the long-term Spatio-temporal

changes in rainfall using the data from 1901 to 2015 across India at meteorological
divisional level. The Pettitt test was employed to detect the abrupt change point in
time frame, while the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen‟s Innovative trend analysis
were performed to analyze the rainfall trend. The Artificial Neural Network-
Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) was employed to forecast the upcoming 15 years
rainfall across India. The rainfall trend pattern for whole country was mapped by
using the geo-statistical technique like Kriging in ArcGIS environment. Results
showed that the most of the meteorological divisions exhibited significant negative
trend of rainfall in annual and seasonal scales, except seven divisions during. Out of
17 divisions, 11 divisions recorded noteworthy rainfall declining trend for the
monsoon season at 0.05% significance level, while the insignificant negative trend of
rainfall was detected for the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. Furthermore, the
significant negative trend (−8.5) was recorded for overall annual rainfall. Based on the
findings of change detection, the most probable year of change detection was
occurred primarily after 1960 for most of the meteorological stations. The increasing
rainfall trend had observed during the period 1901–1950, while a significant decline
rainfall was detected after 1951. The rainfall forecasted for upcoming 15 years for all
the meteorological divisions‟ also exhibited a significant decline in the rainfall. The
results derived from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data exhibited that
increasing/decreasing precipitation convective rate, elevated low cloud cover and

25
inadequate vertically integrated moisture divergence might have influenced on change
of rainfall in India.

The earlier studies had analysed the climate change in terms of rainfall,
temperature and green house gas emissions. The studies reported the average
temperature and carbon emission had increased over a period of time. The rainfall had
shown variation; either fall in rainfall or extreme rainfall were noticed in selected
regions.

Studies on Relationship between Green House Gas Emissions,

Climate Change and Agriculture
The studies analysed the effect of climate change on agriculture based on
simulation analysis, computable general equilibrium model and various crop models
in India and in other countries.

Saini et al. (1986) reported that there was a decline of 600–650 grains m−2 in
wheat crop with every 1◦C increase in mean temperatures above 17–17.7◦C.
Integrated impact of a rise in temperature and CO2 concentration on yield of crops
was negative (Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991). They estimated that a 2◦C increase in
mean air temperature could decrease rice yield by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high
yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Further, a
0.5◦C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat crop duration by seven days
and reduce yield by 0.45 ton/hectare. An increase in winter temperature of 0.5◦C
would thereby translate into a 10% reduction in wheat production in the high yield
states of Northern India. Achanta (1993) simulated irrigated yields for Pantnagar
district under doubled CO2 and increased temperature and reported that the impact on
rice production would be positive in the absence of nutrient and water limitations.

Kaiser et al. (1993) studied the impact of climate change on crop yield in
Southern Minnesota 1980-2070. Temperature was selected as the independent
variable. A farm-level analysis was conducted to examine the effects of climate
change on farm operations and profitability using the Monte Carlo simulation. The
results indicated that grain farmers in the southern region of Minnesota could
effectively adapt to the climate change gradually.

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 Aggarwal et al. (1993) reported that at 425 ppm, CO2 concentration and no
rise in temperature, wheat grain yield at all levels of production had increased
significantly. In northern India, a 1◦C rise in mean temperature had no significant
effect on potential yields but irrigated and rainfall yields increased in most places. An
increase of 2◦C in temperature reduced potential wheat yields at most places. The
effect on irrigated and rainfall productivity varied with location. The natural climatic
variability also had considerable effect on the magnitude of response to climate
change. Evapotranspiration was reduced in irrigated as well as rain-fed environments.

Aggarwal et al. (1993) reported that the carbon emission concentration was
425 ppm and no rise in temperature, the yield of wheat had increased significantly in
northern India. In northern India, a 1◦C rise in mean temperature had no significant
effect on potential wheat yield.

Gangadhar Rao et al. (1994) studied the impact of climate change on wheat
performance of India and showed that wheat yields decreased due to the adverse
effects of temperature during grain filling and maturity stages of the growth. The
results of this study indicated that crop characteristics such as sensitivity of grain
filling duration to temperature, played a major role in determining the effects of
climate change on crop productivity. In a detailed study of Aggarwal et al. (1994)
developed and evaluated the WTGROWS crop simulation model to estimate the
effect of climate change on productivity of wheat in India. It was simulated for
normally sown crops at three levels of production. The CO2 level of 425 ppm and
temperature rise options of 0, 1 and 2◦C were assumed. At 425 ppm, CO2
concentration and no rise in temperature, grain yield at all levels of production
increased significantly at all places. One degree Celsius rise in mean temperature had
no significant effect on potential yields. Irrigated yields however showed a small
increase in most places where current yields were greater than 3.5 t/ha. In central and
peninsular India, where current irrigated yields were between 2 to 4 t/ha, the response
varied from a significant decrease to a significant increase. Rainfall yields, however,
showed a significant increase. An increase of 2◦C in temperature reduced potential
yields at most places. The magnitude was, however, less at places with low potential
productivity. In fact, for a few locations there was a small increase or no significant
effect. In sub-tropical (above 23◦N) environments, there was a small decrease in
potential yields (1.5 to 5.8%) but in tropical locations the decrease was 17–18 percent.

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 In the same study, mean simulated yield of wheat for current and changed
climate scenario (2◦C rise and CO2 level of 425 CO2 ppm) in different latitudinal
ranges was evaluated. Irrigated yields slightly increased for latitudes greater than
27◦N but were reduced at all other places. The decrease in yield was much higher in
lower latitude. Several locations, particularly where current rainfed yields were
greater than 2 t/ha showed a very significant increase in rainfed yields with climate
change. These locations were mostly above 27◦N; the mean increase here was
28.6 percent. Between 25◦N and 27◦N, although rainfed yields in current weather
were high, there was a significant decrease in changed climate. These results were
closely related to the effects of changed climate on crop duration. Depending upon the
magnitude of temperature increase, crop duration, particularly the period up to a thesis
was reduced. In northern India, because of this reduction in pre-an thesis duration,
grain filling was often shifted to relatively cooler temperature of February enabling
the crop to maintain reasonable grain filling duration in changed climate. On addition,
the improved water use efficiency and growth rates helped the crops to maintain
adequate rates of growth. The simulation analysis showed that if crops were allowed
to maintain same crop duration as in current weather, the effect of climate change was
significant.

Rosenzweig et al. (1994) conducted a global assessment of the potential

impact of climate change on world food supply. Their findings of the study showed
that doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a
small decrease in global crop production and developing countries are likely to bear
the brunt of the problem.

Aggarwal et al. (1994) developed and evaluated the WTGROWS crop

simulation model to assess the effect of climate change on productivity of wheat in
India. The carbon emission level of 425 ppm and temperature rise options of 0◦C, 1◦C
and 2◦C were assumed. At 425 ppm CO2 concentration and no rise in temperature,
grain yield at all levels of production had increased significantly at all places. One
degree Celsius rise in mean temperature had no significant effect on potential yields
in un-irrigated area. But in irrigated area, the yield of wheat had increased due to
increase in temperature, where current yields were greater than 3.5 t/ha. In central and
peninsular India, where current irrigated yields were between 2 to 4 t/ha, the response
varied from a significant decrease to a significant increase. Rainfall yields, however,

28
showed a significant increase. An increase of 2◦C in temperature reduced potential
yields at most places. The magnitude was, however, less at places with low potential
productivity. In fact, for a few locations there was a small increase or no significant
effect. In sub-tropical (above 23◦N) environments, there was a small decrease in
potential yields (1.5 to 5.8%) but in tropical locations the decrease was 17–18 percent.
There was no effect of climate change in northern India but yields were reduced in
Central India by 10–15 percent. This reduction in productivity under changed
climate unless accompanied with suitable research and policy interventions may
reduce wheat production options in central India (Aggarwal, 2000).

Gangadhar Rao et al. (1995) assessed the impact of climate change on the crop
productivity of Sorghum in three diverse sorghum growing areas in India i.e.
Hyderabad, Akola and Solapur. Crop growth was simulated using the CERES-
sorghum ( Ritchie and Alagarswamy, 1989) simulation model with climate change
scenarios generated by the three GCM s namely; Goddard Institute of Space Studies
(GISS), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom
Meteorology Office (UKMO). The simulated results showed a decrease in yield of
sorghum in rainy season at Hyderabad and Akola under all climate change scenarios.
Post rainy season sorghum grown at Solapur on stored soil water indicated a marginal
increase in yield. The study also revealed that the effects of climate change on the
same crop would depend upon the season it was grown.

Mohandass et al. (1995) used ORYZA1 model (Kropff et al., 1994) to

simulate rice production in India under current and future climates. The General
Circulation Model (GCM) was used to predict the effect of climate change on rice
yield in India. The climate change was predicted in terms of carbon emission and
temperature. They predicted the effect of climate change on rice yield was small.
Uprety et al. (1996) concluded that with the variation in temperature and CO2
emission in the northern belt of Indian subcontinent, the production of Brassica crop
(a oilseed crop) was likely to increase and was likely to be shifted in some more
relatively drier regions than where it was grown.

Hundal et al. (1996) examined the climate change impact on productivity of

wheat, rice, maize and groundnut crop in Punjab using CERES-wheat (Godwin et al.,
1989), CERES-rice (Singh et al., 1993), CERES-maize (Ritchie et al., 1989) and
“PNUTGRO” (Kaur, 1993) crop simulation models. They concluded that, if all other

29
climate variables were to remain constant, temperature increase of 1, 2 and 3◦C from
present day condition, would reduce the grain yield of wheat by 8.1 percent,
18.7 percent and 25.7 percent, rice by 5.4 percent, 7.4 percent and 25.1 percent, maize
by 10.4 percent, 14.6 percent and 21.4 percent and seed yield in groundnut by
8.7 percent, 23.2 percent and 36.2 percent respectively. In general, the simulation
results indicated that increasing temperature and decreasing radiation levels posed a
serious threat in decreasing growth and yields of cereals and oilseeds crop. Increased
CO2 levels were expected to favour growth and increase crop yields and, therefore,
will be helpful in counteracting the adverse effects of temperature rise in future.

Lal et al. (1998) examined the vulnerability of wheat and rice crops in
northwest India to climate change through sensitivity experiments with CERES-wheat
and CERES-rice models and found that under elevated CO2 levels, yields of rice and
wheat increased significantly (15% and 28% for a doubling of CO2). However, a 3◦C
(2◦C) rise in temperature cancelled out the positive effect of elevated CO2 on wheat
(rice). The combined effect of enhanced CO2 and imposed thermal stress on the
wheat (rice) crop was 21 percent (4%) increase in yield for the irrigation schedule
presently practiced in the region. While the adverse impacts of likely water shortage
on wheat crops would be minimized to a certain extent under elevated CO2 levels,
they would largely be maintained for the rice crops resulting in about 20% net decline
in the rice yields.

Chatterjee (1998) used CERES-sorghum model and observed increase in

temperature consistently decreased the sorghum yields from the present day
conditions. Increase in temperature by 1◦C and 2◦C sorghum decreased the grain
yields by 7 to 12 percent, on an average. A further increase in temperature drastically
reduced the potential yields by 18 to 24 perent, on an average. The magnitude of
decrease in yield with increase in temperature was, in general, proportional to the
increase in temperature in most years, indicating that there was no large interaction
effect between yearly climatic variation and increase in temperature. Increase in 50-
ppm CO2 increased yields by only 0.5 percent. This was nullified when the
temperature increased by 0.08◦C. Similarly the small beneficial effect of still higher
CO2 concentrations was nullified by further increase in temperature. The beneficial
effect of 700-ppm CO2 was nullified by an increase of only 0.9◦C in temperature.
Further increase in temperature always resulted in lower yields than control

30
irrespective of the increase in CO2. Mandal (1998) used CROPGRO-chickpea model
and observed increase in temperature up to 2◦C did not influence potential yield of
chickpea as well as above ground biomass significantly. Pre-anthesis and total crop
duration got reduced by 10 and 12 days with 2◦C rise. Irrigated yield, which averaged
around 58 percent of the potential yield, in general increased with temperature rise
upto 2◦C. Total crop duration got reduced only by 4 days with 2◦C rise. Nitrogen
uptake and total water use (as evapo-transpiration) were not significantly different
upto 2◦C rise. Crop yield under rain-fed condition was much lower, but the effect of
temperature rise on crop growth processes and subsequent yield were more or less
similar as noticed in case of irrigated condition. The elevated CO2 increased grain
yield under potential, irrigated and rainfed conditions. There was a linear increase in
grain yield as the CO2 concentration increased from 350 to 700 ppm under all the
three levels. The response seemed to be more pronounced under moisture limiting
condition. Potential grain yield of pigeonpea (using WOFOST crop model) decreased
greatly over the control when the temperature was increased even by 1◦C. The results
indicated the differential response of production levels to temperature rise, which
need to be understood through climate change effects on phenology, crop and soil
processes.

Dakhawa et al. (1998) studied the effect on crop production of differential

day-night warming created by global climate change. From their findings, they
suggested that the potential crop damage caused by global warming may be less
severe due to the existence of asymmetric day-night warming rather than equal day-
night warming.

Lal et al. (1999) projected 50% increased yield for soybean for a doubling of
CO2 in Central India by using CROPGRO-soybean model. However, a 3C rise in
surface air temperature almost cancelled out the positive effects of doubling of
carbon dioxide concentration results in reducing the total duration of the crop (and
hence productivity) by inducing early flowering and shortening the grain fill period.
Soybean crops in Central India were found to be more vulnerable to increase in
maximum temperature than in minimum temperature. A decline in daily rainfall
amount by 10% restricted the grain yield to about 32 percent. They concluded that
acute water stress due to prolonged dry spells during monsoon season could be a
critical factor for the soybean productivity even under the positive effects of elevated

31
CO2 in the future. Sahoo (1999) used CERES-maize crop model and carried out
simulation for irrigated and rainfall conditions. Rise in temperature decreased the
maize yield both the environments. At CO2 level of 350 ppm, grain yield decreased
continuously with temperature rise till 4◦C, where the yield decreased by about
30 percent over the present day condition. This was possibly due to reduction in days
to 50 percent silking and physiological maturity. At CO2 level of 700 ppm, grain
yield increased by about 9% over the present day condition. The temperature rise
decreased the yield continuously, which was around eight percent per degree rise in
temperature. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide concentration on growth and yield of
maize was established, but less pronounced when compared with crops like wheat,
chickpea and mustard crop. The beneficial effect of 700 ppm CO2 was nullified by an
increase of only 0.6◦C in temperature. Further increase in temperature always resulted
in lower yields than control. For one of the IPCC scenario (an increase of 1.8◦C
temperature for India and 425 ppm CO2 by the year 2030), potential maize yields
would be severely effected (about 18%).

Lal, et al. (1999) studied the impact of carbon emission on soybean yields in
central India. The carbon emission was selected as the independent variable. Based on
simulations carried out the doubled CO2 level, the effects of future climate change on
soybean yields in Central India were examined using the CROPGRO model. Results
suggested higher yields (50% increase) for soybean crop for a doubling of CO2. The
sensitivity experiments of the CERES-rice model to CO2 concentration changes by
Saseendran et al., (1999) indicated that over the Kerala State, an increase in CO2
concentration led to yield increase due to its fertilization effect and also enhanced the
water use efficiency. The temperature sensitivity experiments had shown that for a
positive change in temperature up to 5◦C, there was a continuous decline in the yield.
For every one-degree increment, the decline in yield was about six percent. Also, in
another experiment it was noticed that the physiological effect of ambient CO2 at
425-ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in
temperature up to 2◦C.

Mathauda et al. (2000) analysed the impact of climate change on rice yield in
Punjab, India for the period 1970-1990. The climatic variables such as Temperature
change (extreme warm, greater warm, moderate warm, slight warm and normal
weather) were selected. In the study, the effect of temperature on rice yield was

32
analyzed on five different weather scenarios. CERES RICE simulation model was
used in the study. The results of the research showed that the increase in temperature
reduced the rice yield in five scenarios. As the temperature increased, the decrease in
rice yield also increased.

Southworth et al. (2000) studied the impact of climate change on maize yield
in Midwestern Great Lakes Region for the period 1987-1990 The variables such as
Temperature and rainfall were selected and CERES maize model was specified for
the period 2050- 2059. It was found that high temperatures during the tasseling of
maize led to significant decreases in productivity.

Olesen et al. (2000) assessed the impact of climate change on wheat in

Denmark for the period 1971-1997. The climatic variables such as Carbon dioxide
emission (CO2), temperatures and Rainfall were selected. The CLIMCROP (crop
simulation model) was used in the study, assuming that water did not limit growth.
High temperature reduced crop duration of certain species. For wheat, a temperature
increase of 1°C during grain filling was estimated to reduce the length of this phase by
five percent.

Alexandrov et al. (2000) studied the impact of climate change on maize and
wheat yield in Bulgaria for the period 1961–1990. The variables such as rainfall,
temperature and solar radiation. At the current CO2 level, the transitory GCM
scenarios predicted a decrease in maize and winter wheat yields, especially in the
2020s, 2050s and [Link] of major crops such as rice and wheat had either
declined or shown a declining trend in various regions of India due to climate change
(Aggarwal et al., 2000; Mall and Srivastava, 2002; Pathak et al., 2003).

Kumar et al (2001), estimated the functional relationship between farm level net
revenue and climate variables, introduced through linear, quadratic, and interaction
terms, to understand the climatic sensitivity of Indian agriculture. They found that the
overall impacts due to the climate change scenario for a 2◦C rise in temperature and a
seven percent increase in precipitation were negative and decline of about 8.4 percent
of the total farm level net-revenue for India. The temperature increase resulted in
significant negative impacts, while the higher precipitation considered under the
scenario increased the net-revenue. On the whole the negative impacts due to
temperature change more than compensate for the small positive impact due to

33
precipitation change. Impacts estimated for a range of temperature changes revealed
that the temperature response function was of inverted „U‟ shape, i.e., with higher
climate changes the loss would be greater. The northern states of Haryana, Punjab,
and western Uttar Pradesh, which grow predominantly wheat in the winter season,
experienced most negative effects of temperature along with the coastal districts of
Tamil Nadu. On the other hand, the eastern district of West Bengal and parts of Bihar,
seemed to benefit from the changes in future temperature.

Kumar et al. (2001) used CERES-rice model and analyzed the impact of climate
change on rice production in India. They concluded that by the middle of the 21 st
century in Central and South India, an increase in rice yield was possible under the
projected climate change scenarios. In North West India, a decrease in yield under
irrigated conditions may take place as a result of the significant decrease in rainfall
during the monsoon season under climate change. Also, reduction in crop duration
may occur at all locations in the country due to increase in temperature associated
with the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Aggarwal and Mall (2002)
reported the results of a study where the impact of various climate change scenarios
had been assessed on grain yields of rice with two popular crop simulation model –
CERES-rice and ORYZA1N with change in temperature and CO2. Increase of 1 to
2◦C temperature without any increase in CO2 resulted in a 3–17% decrease in grain
yield in different regions. In general, as the temperatures increased rice yields in
eastern and western India were less affected, moderately affected in north whereas
severely affected in southern India. Grain yields increased in all regions as the
CO2 concentration increased. A doubling of CO2 resulted in 12 to 21 percent
increased in yield in different regions. The beneficial effect of 450 ppm CO2 was
nullified by an increase of 1.9–2.0◦C in northern and eastern regions and by 0.9-1.0◦C
in southern and western regions. In improved level of management (analogues to
potential production environment), increase of 1 to 4◦C temperature without any
increase in CO2 resulted in a 5–30% decrease in grain yields in different regions. A
28–35 percent increase in yields of rice was obtained as atmospheric CO2 doubled.
The beneficial effect of 450 ppm CO2 was nullified by an increase of 1.2–1.7◦C in
northern and eastern regions and by 0.9–1.0◦C in southern and western regions. Most
of the simulation studies had shown a decrease in duration and yield of crops as
temperature increased in different parts of India. Such reductions were, however,

34
generally, offset by the increase in CO2; the magnitude of these crops varied with
crop, region and climate change scenario. In north India, irrigated wheat yields
decreased as temperature increases, a 2◦C increase resulted in 17 percent decrease in
grain yield but beyond that the decrease was very high. These decreases were
compensated by increase in CO2 due to letter‟s fertilizing effect on crop growth. CO2
concentration had increased to 450 ppm to nullify the negative effect of 1◦C increase
in temperature.

The effect of climate change scenario of different periods can be positive or

negative depending upon the magnitude of change in CO2 and temperature
(Aggarwal, 2003). He has also developed two scenarios based on IPCC (2001) as
optimistic (low increase in temperature; high increase in CO2) and pessimistic
scenarios (high increase in temperature; low increase in CO2) for different years. The
possible impact of these studies showed that the irrigated wheat and rice yields in
north India will not be significantly affected due to direct effect until 2050. It would
be only in 2070 when the temperature increased very large, that the crops showed
large reduction in yield. Attri and Rathore (2003) used CERES-wheat dynamic
simulation model and climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current
century analysed the impacts of concurrent changes of temperature and CO2 on the
growth, development and yields of wheat in northwest India. They found increase in
wheat yield between 29–37 percent and 16–28 percent under rainfall and irrigated
conditions especially in different genotypes were observed under a modified climate
(3◦C increases in temperature or more) would cancel out the positive effects of CO2.
Mall et al. (2004) used the CROPGRO-soybean model to simulate the impact of
climate change on soybean production in India. Climate change scenarios for the
selected regions of the Indian subcontinent were developed using three GCMs
namely, Goddard Institute of Space Studies Model (GISS-2, Russell and Rind, 1999),
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL-R30, Knutson et al., 1999)
and United Kingdom Meteorological Office – Hadley Climate Prediction Centre
Model (UKMO – HadCM3, Mitchell et al., 1998). For the crop growth model used in
this study, the probable changes in surface air temperature during the growing season
were estimated at the selected sites in the region following standard rationalization
techniques suggested by IPCC. Probable changes in precipitation, cloudiness and
solar radiation under the climate changes scenarios were not taken into consideration

35
in this analysis in view of the significant uncertainties associated with non-linear,
abrupt and threshold rainfall events projected by GCMs over the Indian subcontinent.
In this study, all the GCM projected climate change scenarios (at the time of doubling
of CO2 concentrations) predicted decreased yields for almost all locations. Mean
decline in yields across different scenarios ranged from 14 percent in Pune (West
India) to 23 percent in Gwaliar (Central India). Decline in soybean yield was found to
be less in west and south India as compared to other parts of the country. The mean
yield was found to be significantly affected under UKMO model generated climate
scenarios for both current and doubled CO2 atmosphere.

Chang (2002) analysed the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop yield in
Taiwan 1977-1996 for 60 crops. The study concluded that climate change had a
significant effect on crop yield.

Tol (2002) estimated the potential impacts of climate change including the
impact on agriculture. According to his findings, a 1° C increase in the global mean
surface air temperature was likely to have a net positive effect on China, the Middle
East and member nations of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD). However, it will have a negative effect on other countries.

Mendelsohn et al. (2003) analysed the impact of rainfall and temperature on

farm land value in USA in 1997. The results showed that the value of irrigated
cropland was not sensitive to precipitation and increased in value with temperature.

Kumar et al. (2004) analyzed the crop-climate relationships for India, using
historic production of statistics for major crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut, and
sugarcane) and for aggregate food grain, cereal, pulses and oilseed production. All
India annul total crop production (except sorghum and sugarcane), production in the
monsoon (except sorghum) and post-monsoon seasons (except sorghum and rice)
were significantly correlated to all India summer rainfall.

Parry et al. (2004) estimated the potential impact of climate change under
climate change scenarios developed from a model in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change‟s Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). They calculated the
projected changes in yield using transfer functions derived from crop model
simulations with observed climate data and projected climate change scenarios. They
further used the basic linked system (BLS) to evaluate the consequent changes in

36
global cereal production, cereal prices, and the number of people at risk from hunger.
Their findings from the simulation experiments concluded that the world, for the most
part, would be able to continue to feed itself for the rest of the century under the
SRES scenarios. However, one interesting point in their findings was that the balance
was achieved through an increase in production in developed countries, which mostly
benefitted from climate change that compensates for the decline in developing
countries.

Deressa et al. (2005) analysed the impact of rainfall and temperature on

sugarcane production in South Africa (11 regions) for the period 1977-1998. The
study concluded that sugar cane production was highly sensitive to climate change.

Gbetibouo et al. (2005) studied the impact of rainfall, temperature, soil types,
labour, population, irrigated land and geographical coordinates on net revenue of
crops per hectares in South Africa (300 districts) for the period 1970-2000. The
results showed that the production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in
temperature compared to variations in rainfall. The increase in temperature affected
the net income positively, while the effect of the decrease in rainfall was negative.

Kanwar (2006) studied the effect of climate change on yield of food grains in
India. He found that the rainfall was a significant factor in determining the yield of
food crops. Similar studies were undertaken by Auffhammer et al. (2006) and
Auffhammer et al. (2012) by using the state level panel data in India particularly in
khariff season. They also reported that the rainfall had significant effect on yield on
food crops.

Kabubo-Mariara et al. (2006) studied the effect of rainfall, temperature,

global warming on net crop revenue in Kenya for the 1988-2003. Global warming had
an important influence on net crop revenue in Kenya. The result also indicated that
the temperature was much more important than rainfall to influence the net crop
revenue.

Guiteras (2007) studied the effect of rainfall, temperature, urbanisation and

soil quality on agricultural outcome in 200 districts of India for the period of 1961-
1999. The findings of the study showed that during the 2010-2039 period, crop yields
were reduced by 4.5-9 percent due to climate change. In the absence of long-term

37
adaptation in the period between 2070-2099, the yield was predicted to decrease by 25
percent or more.

Deressa et al. (2009) assessed the impact of temperature and precipitation on

crop income in Ethiopia for the period 2050 and 2100. In addition, it was observed
that small changes in temperature during the summer and winter period negatively
affected net crop revenue.

Kang, et al. (2009) assessed the impact of climate change on crop yield, crop
water productivity, and food and water productivity. Based on the literature review,
they project that because of climate change, there will be an increase in water
availability in some parts of the world. This increase will have an effect on water use
efficiency and allocation. They further argued that this can lead to an increase in crop
production, though irrigation expansion can cause environmental degradation. The
effect of climate change on crop production will differ by location depending on
irrigation and latitude; some areas would increase production while others would
experience a decrease. They suggested that expanding irrigated areas would increase
total crop production, but the food and environmental quality may degrade.

Brown et al. (2010) studied the effect of rainfall and temperature on gross
domestic product in 133 countries for the period 1961-2003. The increase in the
amount of rainfall affected the share of the agricultural sector in gross domestic
product positively, while the increase in temperature affected the gross domestic
product in negative direction.

Aggarwal et al. (2010) analysed the impact of climate change on yield of rice
in India in the period 1969-1990. The variables such as solar radiation, temperature,
rainfall, wind speed and vapour speed were selected as the climatic variables in the
study. The simulation analysis was used and info Crop Wheat and Info Crop-Rice
models were specified. The study revealed that the rice and wheat crops will be
affected by climate change.

Lobell et al. (2011) examined the climate trends and global crop production
since 1980 and suggested that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most
countries, global maize and wheat production had declined by 3.8 and 5.5 percent,
respectively, relative to an absence of climate trends. Deschenes and Greenstone
(2011) used a new method to study the impact of climate change on the US

38
agricultural sector. Their method involved the exploitation of the random year-to-year
variation in temperature and precipitation to estimate their effect on agricultural
profits using county level panel data. From the estimated results, they concluded that
the overall effect of climate change on profits was small with heterogeneous effects
across the states. Their analysis further indicated that the predicted increases in
temperature and precipitation would had virtually no effect on yields among the most
important crops such as corn and soybeans.

Dell et al. (2012) studied the effect of average temperature and rainfall on
gross domestic product in 125 countries for the period 1950-2003. The study reported
that the increase in temperature leads to a decrease in agricultural production,
industrial production and political stability.

Akram (2012) studied the effect of rainfall, temperature, population and

urbanization on gross domestic product in eight Asian countries for the period of 1972
-2009. The study reported that the effect of temperature and rainfall on GDP was
negative. These effects were higher in the agricultural sector compared to the
manufacturing and service sectors.

Bedamatta (2012) reported that probability of 10 % to 40% loss in crop

production in India with increases in temperature by 2080-2100. Temperature rises of
between 2° C to 3.5 ° C was projected to lead to a loss of 3-26 % in net agricultural
revenues. Increasing climate sensitivity of Indian agriculture will lead to greater
instability of India‟s food production which will also impact on poverty and
livelihoods. The study argued that understanding the impact of climate change on
agriculture in environmentally and economically vulnerable regions of India will
require better understanding of the long-term path of innovation, land use and the
dynamic behaviour of managed ecosystems.

Dasgupta (2013) studied the impact of rainfall, temperature on rice and maize
yields in the world countries for the period [Link] change had adversely
affected the amount of maize and rice production. The increase in the variability of
the climate variables had a greater negative effect on the countries with lower
productivity for rice.

Barnwal et al. (2013) studied the impact of rainfall and temperature on rabi
rice yield in India for the period 1971-2004. The monsoon in crop (Kharif) was more

39
sensitive to temperature and precipitation, while the winter crop (Rabi) was quite
resistant to changes in climate variability.

Başoğlu et al. (2013) analysed the relationship between the agricultural gross
domestic products, rainfall and temperature in Turkey for the period 1973 -[Link]
results indicated that precipitation had a positive impact on agricultural Gross
Domestic Product, while temperature had a negative impact.

Alam (2013) studied the relationship between cereal yield and carbon
emission in India for the period 1971 -2011. The results showed that there was a
positive and significant relationship between cereal yield and economic growth, while
there was a negative and significant relationship between CO2 emissions and
economic growth.

Salvo et al. (2013) analysed the impact of temperature and rainfall on net
revenue in Italian Alpin Region for the period 2003–2007 in contrast to the general
beneficial effects of climate change in the vast areas of Europe (Germany and the
UK). Climate change had led to a decline in average annual net income in the Alpine
region.

Sarker et al. (2014) studied the impact of rainfall, average maximum and
minimum temperature on various types‟ rice production in Bangladesh for the period
1972-2009. In the average maximum temperature, Aus and Aman rice was a risk
augmenting factor and Boro rice was a risk-reducing factor. The findings of the study
showed that rainfall and temperature had significant influence on rice production.

Mishra et al. (2014) studied the impact of climate change on agricultural

sector using Ricardian approach in Odisha (for all the nine coastal districts) for the
period 1979-2009. The variables such as the rainfall and temperature were selected as
the independent variables and the independent variable selected was farm level net
farm revenue. The study revealed that the July rainfall was useful for the farm activity
in Odisha. The study also revealed that the increase in temperature for all seasons had
adverse effects on the agricultural sector of coastal Odisha.

Louml et al. (2015) analysed the impact of rainfall, temperature, carbon

emission, fertilizer and area planted on maize production in Gambia for the period
1960-2013. The findings of the study showed that a marginal increase or decrease in

40
both rainfall and temperatures may negatively affected cereals productivity. Carbon
dioxide had positive effects on crop yield.

Loum1 et al. (2015) assessed the impact of climate change on the yield of
cereals and millets in Gambia for the period 1960-2013 by using the Quadratic
Regression Model. The findings of the study revealed that the rainfall, temperature
and carbon emissions were statistically significant to influence the yield of maize and
millets. Among the above significant factors, temperature was positively related with
yield of millets while rainfall and carbon emission were negatively related with yield
of millets. The increase in the temperature had increased the yield of millets while the
increase in rainfall and carbon emission had reduced the yield of millets in the study
period. In case of maize, the temperature had significant positive relationship with
yield of maize while rainfall had negative relationship with yield of maize.

Tack et al. (2015) used a unique data set that combined Kansas wheat variety
field trial outcomes for the period 1985 – 2013 with locational weather data to analyze
the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. They reported that the
largest drivers of yield loss were freezing temperatures in the fall and extreme heat
events in the spring.

Saibal Kar et al. (2015) reported that the climate change had adversely
affected the low-income households in the South Asian countries. Climate induced
supply shortfalls in agriculture and consequent food price shocks may adversely affect
consumption in these households. The climate change had adversely affected the net
revenue and consumption. The temperature in the month of January, April, and
July had a negative influence on farm revenue, while the October temperature effect
was positive. The results showed that rainfall also significantly influenced the farm
revenue. Climate change had negative influence on household consumption. To
address the challenges on sustainable economic development and poverty, adaptation
and mitigation strategies were required and may include financial incentives for
improving land management, maintenance of carbon content and efficient use of
fertilizers and irrigation. These incentives will have synergies toward sustainable
development and create efforts to reduce vulnerability. The generalized model also
showed that the welfare implications of climate change for workers were not
unambiguous. The overall welfare gain was largely negative if the income gain

41
among the informal workers was outweighed by the loss to the agricultural workers,
particularly in comparison with the initial rental value of the land resources.

Mulatu, et al. (2016) analysed the impact of carbon emission on farm

household welfare in Ethiopia. They used computable general equilibrium model and
assessed the relationship between carbon emission and household welfare. The carbon
emissions induced variation in agricultural total factor productivity for the period
2010– 2030 was simulated. The simulation results indicated that CO2 emissions
negatively affected agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the
baseline, real agricultural GDP was projected to be 4.5 percent lower in the year 2020.
Specifically, CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-
traded crops, but not livestock. The production of teff, maize and wheat, export
commodities such as coffee, oilseeds and pulses, and non-traded crops, declined due
to the impact of CO2 emissions both with CRGE and without CRGE during the
simulation period of 2010-2030, but the impacts were worsened without CRGE.
Emissions also worsened the welfare of all segments of households, where the most
vulnerable groups were the rural-poor households. Results also suggested that proper
implementation of the CRGE (Climate Resilient Green Economy) strategy could
significantly reduce the adverse effects of GHG emissions on agricultural productivity
and household welfare.

Kumar et al. (2017) studied the relationship between the climate change and
agricultural income. It was reported that the extreme low rainfall and high
temperature had affected the income in agriculture. The adverse effect of extreme
climate change had high negative impact in un irrigated area compared to the irrigated
area. The projected long-term weather patterns implied that climate change could
reduce annual agricultural incomes in the range of 15 percent to 18 percent on an
average, and up to 20 percent to 25 percent for unirrigated areas. Minimizing
susceptibility to climate change required drastically extending irrigation via efficient
drip and sprinkler technologies and replacing untargeted subsidies in power and
fertilizer by direct income support. More broadly, the cereal-centricity of policy needs
to be reviewed.

Japreetkarur (2017) analysed the impact of climate change on agricultural

productivity and food security in India. The study was based on state level data of 4

42
major seasonal Indian crops- Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane which comprised of
Food and Cash crops for the time span of 2004 to 2013. Seven agriculturally intensive
states with varied climatic conditions were taken into consideration for the study.
States under tropical zones included West Bengal, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh,
Gujarat, while the subtropical regions were Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and
Karnataka. Cobb Douglas production function was specified to assess the impact of
climate change on agricultural productivity. The productivity of the crops taken into
consideration was expected to be adversely affected by the future climatic conditions.
It would induce poverty among farm households.

Studies were conducted to analyse the impact of climate change on agriculture

based on time series analysis.

Chi-Chungchen et al. (2009) analysed the effect of climate change on yield

of sorghum using time series analysis. The study showed that the increase in rain fall
and temperature would increase the yield of sorghum.

Goodness et al. (2015) investigated the relationship between sorghum yield,

rainfall, and producer price in Nigeria for a period of 40 years (1970-2010). The
stationarity properties of the data were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) test. The ADF test conducted on the specified time series data showed that all
series were integrated of order I(1). The Johansen co integration test and vector error
correction model (VECM) were applied to test for the long-run and short run
relationship among the variables and stability of the long-run equilibrium. The result
indicated that there was at least one co integrating equation between the variables
implying the existence of a long-run relationship between the climate variables and
sorghum yield examined. Consequently, policy and measures that can help farmers
adapt to changing climatic factors as well as guarantee relative price for crops in
general and sorghum in particular should be put in place to encourage the cultivation
of sorghum and enhance its yield.

Ben Zaied et al. (2015) studied the climate change impacts on agriculture in
Tunisia using panel co integration analysis. The study revealed that temperature had
significant long run relationship with Olive production. Increase in temperature had

43
reduced the oil production in Tunisia. The rainfall shortage had also significantly
reduced the olive production across regions in Tunisia.

Zaied, et al. (2015) analysed the relationship between the Olive production
and the rainfall, temperature, labour and capital stock for the period 1980-2012 in
Tunisia. In long-run, in semi-arid areas, the olive output decreased with increase in
temperature.

Amponsah et al. (2015) studied the relationship between cereal yield and
carbon emission, real gross domestic product in Ghana for the period 1961 -2010. The
results indicated that there was significant negative link between CO2 and cereal
yield. There was significant positive long run and short run linkage between cereal
yield and income.

Bayraç et al. (2016) assessed the relationship between the agricultural gross
domestic product and carbon emissions, agricultural yield, temperature and rainfall in
Turkey for the period 1980 -2013. In the study, changes in agricultural yield and
rainfall had positive effects on agricultural GDP and negative effects on CO2
emissions and temperature changes. Moreover, the negative effect of temperature
changes on the agricultural sector was more than the positive effect of changes in
rainfall amount. For this reason, the overall impact of climate change on the
agricultural sector was negative.

Gupta, et al. (2016) studied the effect of climate change on yield of rice,
sorghum and millets in India by using district level panel data. They were collected
for the period 1966-2002. The panel time series analysis was used to assess the effect
of climate change on yield of above mentioned food crops. The findings of the study
showed that rice yield was affected by the extreme rainfall while the yield of sorghum
was affected by extreme temperature. The yield of millet was un affected by the
climate extremes in India in the study period.

Howard et al. (2016) studied the effect of climate change on wheat production
in Kansas using annual time series data from 1949 to 2014. For the study, an error
correction model was developed in which the price of wheat, the price of oats
(substitute good), average annual temperature and average annual recipitation were
used as explanatory variables with total output of wheat being the dependent variable.

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Time series properties of the data series were diagnosed using unit root and co-
integration tests. The estimated results suggested that Kansas farmers were supply
responsive to both wheat as well as its substitute (oat) prices in the short run as well
as in the long run. Climate variables; temperature had a positive effect on wheat
output in the short run but an insignificant effect in the long run. Precipitation had a
positive effect in the short run but a negative effect in the long run.

Maiadua1, et al. (2016) studied the relationship between carbon dioxide,

temperature and rainfall in India and its impact on food production. The study
employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) approach to co integration
on annual time series data spanning a period of 1970-71 to 2014-15. The results of
Bound test revealed that there existed a long-run relation between food production
and the selected climate variables. Carbon dioxide and rainfall had significant positive
effect on food production in the long run, while temperature impacted negatively. The
result of short run causality revealed that carbon dioxide and rainfall, temperature and
lagged temperature jointly caused aggregate food production during the period of
study. The study therefore recommended policy thrust towards effective mitigation
and adaptation strategies necessary for increased output especially tailored towards
the effect of temperature and its impact on rainfall, use of improved crop varieties that
survive adverse climatic conditions and adequate soil conservation strategies should
also be considered.

Rahim et al. (2017) studied the impact of temperature, rainfall, farm land, on
gross domestic product in Malaysia for the period 1983 -2013. The co integration
analysis was used to analyse the long run relationship between the climatic factors
and agricultural gross domestic product. It was concluded that there was long run co
integration relationship between rainfall, temperature and agricultural gross domestic
product. It was concluded that there was a long run co integration relationship
between the climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature and agricultural land to
gross domestic product.

Leitao (2018) studied the relationship between carbon emission and

agricultural productivity in Porttugual. The granger causality test showed that there
was a bidirectional relationship between carbon emission and agricultural
productivity.

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 Chandio, et al. (2019) analysed the impact of climate change on agriculture in
China by using error correction model. Unit root test estimations confirmed that all
variables were stationary at the combination of I(0) and I(1). The results showed that
CO2 emissions had a significant effect on agricultural output in both long-run and
short-run analyses, while temperature and rainfall had a negative effect on agricultural
output in the long-run. Among other determinants, the land area under cereal crops,
fertilizer consumption and energy consumption had a positive and significant
association with agricultural output in both long-run and short-run analysis. The
estimated coefficient of the error correction term was also highly significant.

Chandio, et al. (2020) studied the linkages between carbon emission,

temperature, rainfall and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. In the first step,
the stationary of the variables were tested. At zero level, all the variables were not
stationary. Therefore, the autoregressive distributed lag model was specified to assess
the long run equilibrium relationship between the cereal yield and climatic factors.
The empirical results showed that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship
existed between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO2 emissions and average
temperature had a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall had a
positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the
causality, the Granger causality test was used. It revealed a significant effect of
climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link was
significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results showed that the cereal
yield was affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to
CO2 emissions as compared to land and labour use. .

The earlier studies had analysed the impact of climate change on agriculture in
India and in various countries. They had used simulation models as well as the time
series models to assess the climate change on crops. The studies revealed mixed
findings.

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