Estimating Missing Monthly Precipitation
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ScribdTranslationsEstimating Missing Monthly Precipitation
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ScribdTranslationsDeductive Rational Method
It allows estimating the missing monthly records, relying on the information provided by the
complete years. The development of the method can be summarized in the following four steps:
1. The sum of monthly precipitation for all complete years is calculated. Then it...
divide that accumulated amount by 12 and you get a monthly value. For example: look at the year 1967, whose
The accumulated total is 588mm, which is divided by 12 and gives 49 mm.
2. Monthly precipitation percentages are calculated for all years, which will be
equal to the monthly rainfall recorded between the average monthly calculated in the step
previous and by 100. For example, for the same year 1967, the month of February records 20 mm, that
divided by the average found earlier gives: 20/49 *100 = 40.8%. When adding
the percentages calculated by year and obtaining their average should be 1200 and
100 respectively.
3. Then average the percentage values obtained in the step for each month of the year.
previous, and thus they obtain Yes. For example, look at the month of JANUARY, the sum of percentages would be
equal to: (100+9+63.7+48.1+121.1 = 341.9) they divide that by the number of years with
complete data: Yes = 341.9/11 = 31.1
4. The method accepts the hypothesis that the unknown months will have a
percentage equal to the average percentage, Yes.
5. Now, to estimate the missing data, the following equation is applied:
∑
= ∗
1200 - ∑
Where the summation of P indicates that it is the sum of the precipitation for the YEAR with missing data,
and the Summation of Si indicates the summation of the monthly percentages of the remaining months of that
Year. Example: year 1966, the total precipitation is 426 mm (from the available data) and the
The sum of the Si is 94.2.
The following variables are designated:
each of the unknown months can be at most eleven.
Pi: unknown monthly precipitation in each incomplete year. (mm)
∑ sum of the average percentages of the months whose precipitation is unknown, in
percentage.
∑ sum of the monthly precipitation known in the incomplete years. (mm)
Yes: average percentage assigned to each of the remaining or unknown months.
According to the previous variables, the following proportion can be established:
∑
=
1200 − ∑
Therefore:
∑
= ∗
1200 - ∑
The expression in parentheses is a constant quantity for each incomplete year, so
finally it is obtained:
= ∗