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Core Item Update: Women’s Jackets & Outerwear A/W 25/26
Listen inside this report as our VP of Fashion Francesca Muston outlines how WGSN stress tests
the commercial viability of each of our core items using our proprietary e-commerce data and
predictive analytics model, TrendCurve+
Sadie Perry
05.13.24 - 4 minutes
The Frankie Shop
Trend Investment Projection
Explore
Emerging trend: monitor for future potential
Test
Early stage trend: test in small volumes
Invest
Strong growth trend: prioritise investment for larger volumes
Expand
Trend advancing across categories or industries: shift spend
Protect
Core or perennial trend: optimise with continual innovation
Decline
Diminishing trend: manage volumes to optimise sales
Core Item Methodology
Listen to Francesca Muston, WGSN VP of Fashion Content, explain how we stress test the
commercial viability of each of our core items using our ‘analyst in the loop’ approach to deliver
you items ready to trade.
WGSN · Core Item Methodology
The #TrenchCoat
Having been Flat for several seasons, the #TrenchCoatregistered growth and is indicated as a
Sustained Riser in both regions. High newness combined with low markdown depths supports
further growth into A/W 25/26 in the UK, with similar high newness and full-price out-of-stock in
the US. Focus on #RelaxedFormal subtle silhouette tweaks for #LowKeyLuxury and
#CityDressing.
Relaxed draped #CapeDetail
@rodebjerofficial
Oversized fit
Tod's
#Quilting
Milan
Detachable #FauxFur collar
Burberry
Wide spread collar
Rejina Pyo
Trench coat
TrendCurve+ classification
The #BomberJacket
A Sustained Riser in both regions, the #BomberJacketreturned to growth in A/W 23/24, with
over-indexing newness and full-price out-of-stocks indicating further growth potential into A/W
25/26. Take a #SmartenUpapproach to this style via luxurious colours and premium fabrics, or
use offbeat primaries for #BoldMinimal designs.
#BusinessCasual #GreyOnGrey #PinStripe
Paris
Cherry Lacquer
Federica Tosi
#SunnyYellow #Satin
Paris
Responsible cashmere
Soft Goat
Funnel neck construction
Giada
Bomber/blouson
TrendCurve+ classification
The blazer
The blazer is on an upward trajectory in both regions, classified as a Sustained Riser (UK) and
Slow Riser (US). As the trend will be well established by 2025, focus more on optimising newness
than rapid, all-over expansion of the style, designing into wearable #CityDressing and
#SartorialStyling themes.
Relaxed A-line silhouette, #EnhancedNeutrals
@sophielsmith
Boxy fit #BerryTones
Armarium
#ResponsibleLeather #ContrastTrim
The Source Unknown Store
Reductive wool
Lanvin
#BoldMinimal #GraphicMonochrome stripe
Joseph
Blazer/sport coat
TrendCurve+ classification
The #BikerJacket
Biker jackets have been consistently improving for several seasons, and are set for continued
growth, highlighted within our Buyers' Briefing. A Sustained Riser in both regions, newness over-
indexes in the transitional A/W months and data registers high full-price out-of-stocks,
supporting the growth forecast.
#Monochrome #BlackAndWhite
Paris
#TrueLeopard
@ralphlauren
#Motif studs
John Richmond
Minimal hardware, #DistressedTexture
@lovechild1979
#DarkBrowns
The Frankie Shop
Biker/motorcycle
TrendCurve+ classification
The #Gilet
A Slow Riser (UK) and Flat (US), the #Gilet has surged in retail assortments in recent seasons,
with consistently over-indexing newness and low markdowns leading to a continued but slowing
growth forecast in the UK. The style remains Flat in the US, having registered a steady
assortment mix for several seasons. Appeal to a new demographic by styling as part of smarter
looks.
#SartorialStyling
Paris
#MaterialMix fleece
Brunello Cuccinelli
Longline hooded, smooth padding
MaxMara
#Reversible printed
La Double J
In-built contrast belt
Isabel Marant
Gilet/puffer vest
TrendCurve+ classification
Range plan
WGSN Original CADs/Flats
#TrenchCoat
WGSN Original CADs/Flats
#BomberJacket
WGSN Original CADs/Flats
Blazer
WGSN Original CADs/Flats
#BikerJacket
WGSN Original CADs/Flats
#Gilet
Action points
1
Take a no-compromise approach to sustainability
For outerwear, this means using #ResponsibleLeatheror low-PU #LeatherAlternatives as well as
RWS-certified wool or GRS-certified recycled wool alongside an absence of unnecessary
additional embellishment
2
Add intentional details
Robust Luxury is a key theme for core styles in particular, in line with the #LowKeyLuxury lean
toward streamlined silhouettes, with intentional details. Look to #ContrastTrim, #MaterialMix and
#Modular or #Reversible design components to allow versatility and newness without
compromising wearability
3
Focus on transseasonal styles
In line with Collection Review data, the biker jacket is a key item for development, alongside
bomber and trench styles indicated as Sustained Risers. Prioritise these transseasonal pieces in
cold weather assortments as weather patterns remain unpredictable
WGSN TrendCurve methodology
WGSN TrendCurve AI is the only predictive analytics product that combines unrivalled data
sources across social, search, shelf, shows and sentiment, with advanced machine-learning
techniques and WGSN’s trend forecasting expertise to tell you which trends to invest in, how
deeply and when.
WGSN’s TrendCurve model applies machine-learning algorithms to a unique dataset to
accurately classify and forecast trends. The model analyses over five years of historical data
across social, search, retail shelf, catwalk shows and consumer sentiment.
Statistical techniques are applied to extract the underlying trend from the total assortment to
weight the predictive importance of the different inputs (eg catwalk data is a strong predictor of
some trends, and social is stronger for others). These are then combined to project future values
12 to 24 months ahead.
The output from the model is reviewed and contextualised by our global team of trend experts to
ensure any external factors are accounted for.
Each trend is statistically classified according to where the forecast is in its lifecycle (see right)
over the next 12 to 24 months.
Alongside these forecasts, the key data inputs are analysed individually in order to understand
and surface the underlying drivers of a trend.
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