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Probability Calculations in Statistics

The document presents various statistical problems involving normal and binomial distributions, including calculations of probabilities for different scenarios. It covers topics such as intelligence quotients, heights, cultural test pass rates, drug consumption among AIDS patients, and school dropout rates. Solutions are provided for each problem, demonstrating the application of statistical methods and probability theory.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
8 views10 pages

Probability Calculations in Statistics

The document presents various statistical problems involving normal and binomial distributions, including calculations of probabilities for different scenarios. It covers topics such as intelligence quotients, heights, cultural test pass rates, drug consumption among AIDS patients, and school dropout rates. Solutions are provided for each problem, demonstrating the application of statistical methods and probability theory.

Translated by

ScribdTranslations
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Resolved Problems

In a population of 1,000 individuals, two groups, A and B, are established. The ratios
intellectuals from both groups are distributed according to N(100,30) and N(120,35),
respectively. Selected, randomly and independently, an individual from each group,
request

a) What is the probability that the individual from group A has an intelligence quotient
above 90?

b) What is the probability that the individual in group B has an IQ


greater than 90?

c) What is the probability that both have an intelligence quotient above 90?

Solution

Let X be the random variable that measures the intelligence coefficient of population A, and let Y be the
random variable for the coefficient of population B.

a) They ask us for the p[X>90]. Standardizing the variable:

b) The probability p[Y>90] is calculated similarly by standardizing the variable.

c)
They ask us for P[(X>90)∩(Y>90)], since both variables are independent, the requested probability
it is the product of both, therefore: p[(X>90)Ç(Y>90)] = p[(X>90)] . p[(Y>90)] = 0.63 * 0.8043 = 0.5067.

2. The heights of individuals from two populations A and B follow normal distributions.
an average of 1.70 meters and respective deviations s1, s2with (s1<s2When choosing a
random individual from each population, say in which of the two populations it is more likely that
The chosen individual measures between 1.68 m and 1.72 m. Justify your answer.

Solution

Let X be the random variable that measures the height of individuals in population A and let Y be the
variable that measures the height of individuals in population B. X follows a N(1.70; s1) and Y continues
a normal N(1.70; s2); con (s1<s2to see which of these probabilities is greater:
p[1.68 < X < 1.72] and p[1.68 < Y < 1.72]; let's standardize both variables and compare.
Since the 1st interval is broader than the 2nd and both variables are normal N(0,1).

It is intuitively clear, since they have the same average, the percentage of individuals that is concentrated
around the mean is greater the smaller the dispersion of the individuals
around the mean, that is, the standard deviation. Therefore, for the same centered interval
On average, the area under the normal curve will be greater the smaller it is.
standard deviation.

It has been proven that a certain cultural test is passed by 70% of the
people with a middle-level education and 55% of people with primary education.
A total of 10 people (six with middle school education and four with primary education)
they carry out said cultural test. Calculate:

a) The probability that exactly four of the people with medium-level education
pass the test.

b) The probability that at least one of the people with primary education surpasses the
test.

c) If we consider the variable 'number of people who pass the test among the 10 who do so'
If events are realized, would a binomial probability model continue to apply? Provide reasoning for your answer.

Solution

a) We can assume that the number of successes for the 6 people with intermediate degree studies
It follows a binomial model with n = 6 and p = 0.7. The probability of having exactly 4 successes.
would be given by:

b) Analogously for the 4 people with primary education. Let X be the number of successes.

c) No, because one of the conditions of the binomial model is that the probability of success, in
each test, remain constant.

4. Recent studies conducted on patients with AIDS have been able to


determinar que el 70% consume algún tipo de drogas. En la sala de espera de una consulta
specialized in this disease are at a certain moment six
people. What is the probability that none have consumed drugs?

Solution

The variable X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=6 and p=0.7. Therefore, the probability p[X = 0]
=0.360.000729

5. According to DIARIO 16 on November 22, 1992, out of a total of 2,847 cases


presented to the Constitutional Court from 1-1-1991 to 31-10-1992, only
They have been able to resolve 2,147, which is approximately 75% of those submitted.
What is the probability that out of ten randomly chosen matters, all have been
resolved?

Solution

Let X be the random variable that gives us the number of successes in 10 trials. X follows a model.
Binomial with parameters n = 10 and p = 0.75. The probability p[X=10] = 0.75100.0563

6. According to a report by the OECD, in 1981, 35% of the world's population had
less than 15 years. If it were possible to choose a random sample of the world population
formed by ten people, what is the probability that at most there are three individuals
under the age of 15?

Solution

Let X be the random variable 'number of individuals whose age is under 15 years in a sample'
random selection of 10 individuals. X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 10 and p = 0.35. The probability
what they are asking us is p[X ≤ 3] = p[X=0] + p[X=1] + p[X=2] + p[X=3] =

7. In a test designed to measure the spatial ability of a group of students from the School
From Architecture, it has been learned that 20% have insufficient spatial capacity.
What is the probability that out of three randomly chosen students, all three passed?
insufficient results in the test?

Solution

Let X be the random variable that gives the number of successes (success here is having spatial ability
insufficient) in the 3 tests. X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=3 and p=0.2. Therefore, the
probabilidad p[X=3]=0,230.008.

8. Suppose that the probability of being born a boy in Spain is 0.512. If during a
year in a particular region there have been 2,000 births, what is the
probability that the number of males is between 1,000 and 1,080?

Solution

Let X be the random variable 'number of male births in 2000 births'. X follows a
binomial with parameters n=2000 and p=0.512. Since n is a sufficiently large number, the
The binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean n.p and standard deviation
typical (n.p.q)1/2. Therefore, the variable X follows a normal N(1024, 22.35); then the
p[1000<X<1080] = p[1000, 5<X<1079, 5] = 0.9935-0.1465=0.847.
In a school, it has been observed that 55% of the students exceed a certain standard.
certain tests of psychomotor skills. If this percentage is constant, and having in
An account is given that 100 students take the test; find the probability that they pass.
exactly more than 50.

Solution

The number X of students who pass the test out of the 100 presented follows a binomial distribution.
parameters n=100; p=0.55. Since n.p is large, this distribution can be approximated by a
normal mean n.p and standard deviation (n.p.q)1/2Then X follows a normal N(55, 4.975).
probability p[X>=50.5]=1-p[X ≤ 50.5]=0.8171.

10. The school dropout rate in high school in a certain region is 40%.
Out of a total of 1,000 individuals:

a) What is the probability of exactly 400 failures occurring?

b) What is the probability that they do not exceed 400 failures?

Solution

X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=1000; p=0.4. A distribution that can be approximated by a
normal N(400; 15.492). Considering that it makes sense to talk about it as a discrete variable.
p[X=400]; but as a continuous variable it makes no sense. It is advisable to consider that the
p[X=400]=p[399.5<X<400.5]=0.5129-0.4871=0.0258.

b) Similarly, to calculate p[X<400], we calculate p[X≤399.5]=0.4871.

11. Find the first and third quartile in a distribution N(25,3).

Solution

The first quartile will be the value x0.25of the random variable such that p[X<x0.25=0.25, that is to say that
Leave to the left of the curve a quarter of the population. Standardizing the variable:

A
analogously for the third quartile p[X<x0.75=0.75; x is obtained0.75=27.0235

12. A shirt warehouse has determined that the neck of adult males is
it is normally distributed with a mean of 38 cm and a standard deviation of 1.5 cm. In order to be able to
prepare the production for the next season, and taking into account that its production
it is in 10,000 shirts

a) How many shirts in sizes 35, 36, 37, 38, and 39 will they have to manufacture?

b) ¿Cuántas camisas habrán de fabricar del 43? e) ¿Y del 33?

Solution
Let X be the random variable that measures the neck of adult males. X follows a normal distribution N(38;
1.5)

a) The p[X=35] is null; but it can be considered that the men who wear size 35 are going to be
those men whose neck measurements are between 34.5 and 35.5. Therefore,
we assign size 35 to all those whose p[34.5<X<35.5]=0.0478-0.0098=0.0380=3.8%. For
size 36 we consider the p[35.5<X<36.5]=0.1586-0.0478=0.1106. For size 37
p[36,5<X<37,5]=0,3694-0,1586=0,2108. Para la talla 38: p[37,5<X<38,5]=0,6306-0,3694=0,2612.
And for size 39: P[38.5 < X < 39.5] = 0.8413 - 0.6306 = 0.2107.

Since 10,000 is the number of shirts that will be produced, 380 will be made in size 35; 1,106
de la talla 36; 2.108 de la talla 37; 2.612 de la talla 38 y 2.107 de la talla 39.

b) From size 43, 13 will be manufactured for the range [42.5<X<43.5]=0.9999-0.9986=0.0013; and of the
Size 33: p[32.5<X<33.5]=0.0014-0.0001=0.0013, 13 will be made.

13. In the subject of developmental psychology, it has been possible to determine that the grades
They are distributed according to a N(5.5; 1.2).

a) Between what values, around the mean, will 95% of the students be found?

b) Between what values, around the average, will 50% of the students be found?

e) From what grade will the top 10% of the students be found?

Solution

a) It is about calculating the interval such that:

Therefore, the requested interval is (5, 5-2.35; 5, 5+2.35)=(3.15; 7.85); that is, between 3.15 and 7.85.

b)

Therefore, the requested interval is (5, 5-0.8094; 5, 5+0.8094) = (4.6906; 6.3094); that is, between 4.6906 and
6,3094.

c) We need to calculate the value of x such that P[X>x]=0.1; that is: p[X ≤ x]=0.9; this value is
corresponds to 7.0379

14. The distribution of sociability of a group follows a normal distribution with a mean
20 and a standard deviation of 2. If we randomly choose an individual, find out:
a) The probability of having a coefficient of at most 25.

b) The probability that it has a coefficient between 22 and 25, knowing that it is
above 21.

c) Where should the value of the variable be placed to create two groups (less sociable,
more sociable), on the condition that 30% of the group was in the first group,
and in the second the remaining 70%?

Solution

Let X be the random variable that measures the coefficient of sociability, X follows a N(20; 2). Therefore:

a) p[X ≤ 25] = 0.9938.

b)

c) The value of the variable is the value x such that p[X<x]=0.3. This value corresponds to 18.9512.

15. The weight of adults in a large population is normally distributed with


mean 65 kg and standard deviation 3 kg. Two individuals are chosen at random. Calculating the
corresponding probabilities, justify what is more likely:

a) That each individual has a weight between 63.5 and 66.5 kg.

b) That one of them has a weight between 62 and 68 kg and the other has a weight not
comprendido entre 62 y 68 kg.

Solution

Let X be the random variable resulting from choosing an individual at random and weighing it; X follows a normal distribution.
N(65; 2). Let Y be the random variable resulting from selecting another individual at random and weighing it; Y follows
a N(65; 2). Evidently, X and Y are independent. Therefore:

a) p[(63.5 < X < 66.5) ∩ (63.5 < Y < 66.5)] = p[(63.5 < X < 66.5)] · p[(63.5 < Y < 66.5)] = [0.7734 -
0.226620.54682=0,2990.

b) p[(62<X<68) ∩ ((Y ≤ 62) ∪ (Y ≥ 68))] = p[(62<X<68)] . p[((Y ≤ 62) ∪ (Y ≥ 68))] = 0.8664 . (1 -


0.8664 = 0.1157.

The case a) is more likely.

16. In a block of houses, there are 10 parking spaces. In each parking space, it can
finding a car or not regardless of what happens to the others. If the
the probability that a parking lot is occupied is 0.4; the request is:

a) Identify and describe the probability model.

b) Calculate the probability that on a certain day there are eight parked cars.
Solution

Let X be the random variable 'number of occupied parking spaces out of the 10 available'. X follows a
binomial with parameters n=10; p=0.4.

a) X follows B(10; 0.4).

b) p[X=8]=45. 0,480.620.0106

17. It is known that two distinct populations, X and Y, are normally distributed with a mean of 0.
Furthermore:

p[X³ 2] = p[Y³ 3] = 0.1587 You are asked to calculate their respective variances.

Solution

Let X be a random variable N(0; s1) e Y another variable N(0; s2p[X³ 2] = 1 - p[X<2] and p[Y³ 3] = 1 -
p[Y<3]; we obtain p[X<2]=0.8413 and p[Y<3]=0.8413. Let Z1X/s1y Z2=Y /s2the variables Z1y
Z2If N(0; 1); therefore p[X<2]=0.8413 is equivalent to p[Z1<(2/s1)]=0.8413; from where 2/s1=0.9998 and of
here is1=2,0004. On the other hand, p[Y<3]=0.8413 is equivalent to p[Z2(3/s2)]=0.8413; of
where 3/s20.9998 and from here that s2=3,0006.

18. An elevator has a maximum weight limit of 300 kg. The population of users has a weight
which is distributed according to a normal law with a mean of 70 kg and a standard deviation of 10 kg.

Calculate the probability that any four people from that population go up.
The elevator exceeds the maximum weight.

Solution

Sea X1; X2; X3; X4four random variables N (70; 10) corresponding to the weight of each one of
the people who get on the elevator; the random variable Y = X1+ X2+ X3+ X4follow one
normal distribution with mean E[Y] and standard deviation [Var(Y)]1/2Since E[Y] = E[X1] + E[X2]+ E[X3]+
E[X4=4.70=280. y Var(Y)= Var[X1] + Var[X2] + Var[X3]+ Var[X4=4.102=400; then, the deviation
typical of Y: sy=(400)1/220. Therefore Y follows a N(280; 20). The probability that p[Y>300]=1-
p[Y ≤ 300] = 1 - 0.8413 = 0.1587.

19. The weight (in grams) of a mass-produced piece is distributed according to a normal distribution.
media m = 52 y desviación típica s = 6,5.

a) Find the probability that a manufactured piece weighs more than 68 grams.

b) If 30 percent of the manufactured pieces weigh more than a given piece. How much does it weigh?
this last one?

Solution

Let X be the random variable; X follows a N(52; 6.5).

a) p[X>68]=0.0069.

b) Let xpthe weight of the piece. P[X>xp] = 0,3; then, p[X ≤ xp=0.7 from where xp=55,4086.

20. A multiple-choice exam consists of ten questions, each of which has four possible answers.
answers, with only one of them being correct. If a person were to answer at random, that is,
choose randomly one of the four possible answers from each of the 10
questions:

a) What would be the expected number of correct answers?

b) What is the probability of getting the correct answer to at least six questions?

c) What would be the probability of not answering any questions correctly?

Solution

Let X be the random variable 'number of correct answers out of 10 questions'. X follows a
binomial B(10; ¼) that is B(10; 0.25).

a) The E[X] = n .p = 10.1/4 = 10/4 = 2.5.

b) p[X ≥ 6] which is equal to:

c) p[X=0]=0.75100.0563

21. It is known that a certain medication improves a certain disease to


two out of three patients. It is given to seven sick people.

a) Calculate the probability that four will improve

b) Calculate the probability that at least four people improve.

Solution

Let X be the random variable representing the number of successes of the medication in 7 patients. X follows a
binomial with parameters n=7; p=2/3: B(7; 2/3).

22. In a restaurant, it is known that the duration without breakage of the glasses in use follows a
normal distribution. It is known that the cups last, on average, 50 days, with a
standard deviation of eight days.

a) Calculate the probability that a cup lasts less than 35 days.

b) Calculate the probability that a cup lasts more than 60 days.

Solution
Let X be the random variable 'duration without breaks, in days, of a cup'. X follows a N(50; 8). a)
p[X<35]=0,0304. b) p[X>60]=0,1056.

23. The probability that a piece, chosen at random from a large population of pieces, is
The defect rate is 0.25. 5 pieces are extracted.

a) Calculate the probability of obtaining at least one defective piece.

b) Calculate the probability of obtaining an odd number of defective pieces.

c) Calculate the probability of getting at most three defective pieces.

d) Calculate the average number of defective pieces.

Solution

Let X be the random variable 'number of defective pieces in a sample of 5'. X follows a
binomial B(5; 0.25)

a) P[X ≥ 1] = 0.7627

b) p[(X=1)∪[(X=3)∪[(X=5)]=0.3955+0.0879+0.0010=0.4844.

c) p[X ≤ 3] = 0.9844

d) E[X] =n . p=5.0,25=1,25.

24. The distribution of the duration of a pregnancy is approximately normal, with


mean 266 days and standard deviation 16 days. Calculate:

a) The proportion of pregnancies with a maximum duration of 244 days.

b) Los percentiles del 25%, del 50% y del 75% de la distribución considerada y comenta su
meaning.

Solution

Let X be the random variable 'duration in days of a pregnancy'. X follows a N(266; 16).

a) p[X ≤ 244] = 0.0846

b) p[X<P25P is obtained from ]=0.2525=255,2081; p[X<P50P is obtained from ]=0,550=266; p[X<P75]=0.75 then
get P75=276,7919.

25. Let’s assume a normal distribution with a mean of 50 where the probability of obtaining
A value above 70 is 0.0228. What is the standard deviation? What is the probability of
the values below 45?

Solution

Let X be a random variable that is normally distributed with N(50; s). If p[X>70]=0.0228;
it is deduced that
Then s=10.0045. The p[X<45]=0.3086.

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