Risk and Return Analysis in Finance
Risk and Return Analysis in Finance
Performance Performance
Probability Active A Active B
Pessimist 0.25 13% 7%
Most likely 0.50 15% 15%
Optimistic 0.25 17% 23%
Year Performance
2005 4.9%
2006 15.8%
2007 5.5%
2008 -37.0%
2009 26.5%
a. Calculate the average return of S&P 500 stocks.
b.(Page 358) Example 11.3. Calculate the standard deviation.
PORTFOLIO RISK
a. Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of each individual stock.
b. His portfolio is invested as follows: 25% in Apple stocks, 35% in stocks of
Hasbro and 40% in Cisco shares. What is the expected return and the deviation?
portfolio standard?
9. (Solution)
Suppose you want to create a portfolio with cryptocurrencies. The following table shows the
projections for the next 5 years:
Expected performance
Year
BNB Bitcoin Chilliz Ethereum Polygon Solana
2024 65% 50% 5% 50% 5% 11%
2025 50% 45% 35% 40% 75% 45%
2026 10% 30% 50% 30% 65% 70%
2027 50% 5% 70% -5% 50% 55%
2028 5% 15% 25% 35% 10% 5%
a. Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of each cryptocurrency.
b. Your portfolio is invested as follows: 15% in BNB, 25% in Bitcoin, 20% in Chilliz, 25%
in Ethereum, 5% in Polygon and 10% in Solana, what is the expected return of the
portfolio?
And the standard deviation?
10. (Court, p. 594 and 595 PDF). Examples 9.14 and 9.15
I have knowledge that:
The return of the risk-free asset is 3.5%.
The expected return of the market portfolio is 10%.
The standard deviation of the expected returns of the market portfolio is 0.10.
The participation of the market portfolio in the asset portfolio formed by the
risk-free asset and the market portfolio is 60%.
Calculate the return and the volatility of the portfolio of assets formed by the risk-free asset.
risk and the market portfolio.
11. (Berk, p. 376 PDF). Table 11.4
The table shows the expected returns and the volatility of two stocks:
Performance Deviation
Action expected standard
Intel 26% 50%
Coca-Cola 6% 25%
Correlation between:
What is the expected return of this portfolio? What is the beta of the portfolio? Is this
Does the portfolio have more or less systematic risk than an average asset?
Assume that the total returns of two stocks in the mining industry can be
explain with a two-factor model. The following table shows the information of the
shares of Barrick Gold and Rio Tinto:
Sensitivity to the factors Performance
Fuel price Tipo de cambio total
Barrick Gold -0,201,18 18.50%
Rio Tinto -0,450,63 19.00%
If the expected return on each stock was 12%, what are the risk premiums of
each factor?
Assuming that the risk-free interest rate is 5%, the expected risk premium of
market, of 7%; the expected risk premium of the size factor, of 3.7%, and the premium of
expected risk of the accounting value/market value ratio, of 5.2%:
a. Calculate the expected return of each industry.
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) estimates the following betas for each
industry (the values differ with respect to the market beta of the three-factor model of
Fama and French because the CAPM betas were estimated based on a regression.
simple):
Market
Industry b1
Food industry 0.36
Oil and gas company 0.70
Pharmaceutical 0.59
Telecommunications 1.14
Public Services 0.64
b. Calculate the expected return of each industry according to the CAPM and compare it with the
results obtained in section a.
FAMA-FRENCH-CARHART FACTOR SPECIFICATION MODEL (FFC)
Calculate the monthly and annual capital cost of each company through the specification of
FFC factors, if the risk-free rate is 6%.
23. (Solution)
The following three stocks are available in the market:
Performance
Action expected Beta
Intel 13.4% 0.85
AMD 11,8% 1.25
Nvidia 14.9% 0.9
Market 14.5% 1
24. (Solution)
A model is desired to be built based on the three Fama-French factors to determine the
required return on stocks in the video game industry. Collected the
following data from the last 12 years:
Risk premiums
Systematic risk factors
Cousin Book value/
Year Performance Market Size Market value
1 2.40% 3.50% 6.10% -1.10%
2 -2.30% -1.35% -2.50% 2.40%
3 1.55% 2.30% 3.62% -0.88%
4 -1.18% -0.18% -1.03% 3.40%
5 2.90% 4,50% 4.90% -1.60%
6 -0.80% 0.08% -0.15% 1.98%
7 0.78% 1.50% 2.27% -1.00%
8 0.37% 1.45% 2.62% -0.10%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10 -0.43% 0.30% 0.49% 1.15%
11 1.00% 2.11% 2.00% 0.10%
12 1.32% 2.12% 2.40% 0.29%
a. Calculate the sensitivity of the systematic risk factors on the performance of the
actions.
b. If the risk-free rate is 4%, formulate the equation for the required return of the
actions of the video game industry.
c. Assume the following risk premiums:
Expected market risk premium: 7.5%.
Expected risk premium for the size factor: 5.2%.
Expected risk premium of the factor book value/market value ratio: -3.5%.
Calculate the expected return of video game industry stocks.
d. Calculate the expected return of the stocks in the video game industry according to the
capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and compare it with the result
obtained in the previous section. (Suggestion: calculate the sensitivity again of
market with a simple regression)
25.(Solution)
It is desired to build a model based on the four Fama-French-Carhart factors for
determine the required return on pharmaceutical industry stocks.
they collected the following data from the last 10 years:
a. Calculate the sensitivity of the systematic risk factors on the performance of the
actions.
b. If the risk-free rate is 5%, formulate the required return equation.
c. Assuming that the expected market risk premium is 6.2%; the risk premium
expected size factor of 3.8%, the expected risk premium of the ratio factor
book value/market value, of -4.8% and the market portfolio premium is 2.9%,
calculate the expected return of pharmaceutical industry stocks.
d. Calculate the expected return of the pharmaceutical industry stocks according to the
CAPM and compare it with the results obtained in the previous section. (Suggestion: calculate
again the market beta with a simple regression
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FORMULAS
+ − -1
= −1
cash (fluxury) received from the investment in the asset during the period
= price (value) of the asset at time t
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=
−1
Capital gain,
− −1
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̅ =∑ ∗
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2
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=1
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, (
=∑ 1− ) ̅ ∗( 1− )̅ ∗
=1
Correlation coefficient,
= , ó " . . "
Covariance ,
, = ∗ ∗
Variance/covariance matrix with two or more assets with the same probabilities over the
state of the economy or with historical data with equal probability of occurrence,
= , ó "
= functionName(functionName(parameter1, "someString");English Text 2 "Translation"
Standard deviation of the portfolio composed of a risk-free asset and a risky asset,
= ∗
= ó
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=∑ ∗
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∗ − ) ]
c. 9.61%
d.10.67%
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Berk, Jonathan & DeMarzo, Peter (2020). Corporate Finance. 5th ed. Pearson Education, United
Kingdom.
Berk, Jonathan and Demarzo, Peter (2008). Corporate Finance. 1st ed. Pearson Education, Mexico.
Block, Stanley B.; Hirt, Geoffrey A.; and Danielsen, Bartley R. (2013). Fundamentals of Management
Finance. 14th ed. McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Editors, Mexico.
Brealey, Richard A.; Myers, Stewart C.; y Allen, Franklin (2010).Principios de Finanzas Corporativas.
10th ed. McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Publishers, Mexico.
Ross, Stephen A.; Westerfield, Randolph W. and Jordan, Bradford D. (2010). Fundamentals of Finance
Corporative. 9th ed. McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Publishers, Mexico.
Ross, Stephen A.; Westerfield, Randolph W. y Jaffe, Jeffrey F. (2012).Finanzas Corporatvas.9ª ed.
McGraw-Hill/Interamericana Publishers, Mexico.
Portfolio diversification reduces risk and can potentially increase returns, depending heavily on the correlation coefficients of the included assets. If assets have low or negative correlations, their combined volatility is often lower than the weighted sum of individual volatilities, reducing the portfolio's overall risk. This risk reduction is key to achieving efficient diversification, as it allows investors to retain expected returns similar to less diversified portfolios but with lower risk, enhancing the risk-adjusted performance .
The coefficient of variation (CV) influences investment decisions by comparing the relative risk of an asset in relation to its expected return. It provides a measure of risk per unit of return, which is crucial when selecting assets for a portfolio. Assets with lower CV are often preferred, as they imply less risk for a given level of return. Considering CV helps in constructing a more balanced portfolio, aligning with the trade-off between risk and return, and optimizing for risk-adjusted performance .
The variability in expected returns between North Air and Tex Oil stocks plays a significant role in portfolio risk management. North Air has higher expected returns and volatility compared to Tex Oil, which suggests that combining them in a portfolio could lead to risk diversification if their returns are not perfectly correlated. To manage portfolio risk effectively, an investor should calculate the covariance or correlation between the two stocks to understand their joint variability. If they have low or negative correlation, the portfolio's overall risk could be reduced compared to individual stock risks .
The Fama-French model explains differences in expected returns across various industries by incorporating three factors: the market risk premium, size, and book-to-market ratio. The market risk premium captures general market risks, the size factor accounts for the tendency of smaller firms to have higher returns, and the book-to-market ratio addresses the value of a company's equity. Each industry has different sensitivities to these factors, resulting in variations in expected returns. For instance, industries with higher market value-beta may expect different returns compared to those with strong sensitivities to the book-to-market factor .
Covariance and correlation between asset returns significantly influence the decision to include new assets in a portfolio. Assets with low or negative correlation with existing portfolio holdings can decrease overall portfolio risk through diversification. Covariance measures the degree to which two assets move together, whereas correlation standardizes this measure, making it easier to compare. Deciding to include a new asset based on these metrics allows for optimization of risk-return trade-offs, potentially enhancing the portfolio's efficient frontier .
Including a risk-free asset in a portfolio that also holds a market portfolio consisting of risky assets can reduce the overall risk and optimize portfolio returns through diversification. The risk-free asset, having a return of 3.5%, guarantees a certain proportion of returns regardless of market fluctuations, thereby stabilizing the portfolio's performance. The Sharpe Ratio can be optimized at the tangency portfolio, representing the best compromise between risk and reward .
The Fama-French-Carhart Factor Specification Model explains the required return on pharmaceutical industry stocks by incorporating four factors: market risk, size, book-to-market ratio, and a momentum factor. Each factor captures different dimensions of systematic risk affecting the stocks. The model assesses a stock's sensitivity to these factors, providing a comprehensive understanding of expected returns required for compensating these risks. For the pharmaceutical industry, specific sensitivities to these factors determine the expected return, considering the risk premiums assigned to each factor, allowing investors to better predict financial performance based on macroeconomic conditions .
According to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), systematic risk, represented by beta, plays a crucial role in stock return volatility. Systematic risk refers to the inherent risk associated with the overall market that cannot be diversified away. CAPM posits that expected returns on a stock are proportional to its exposure to systematic risk, with a higher beta indicating greater sensitivity to market movements. This aligns a stock's expected return with the market risk premium over the risk-free rate, making beta a key factor in understanding stock volatility .
Sensitivity to macroeconomic factors such as GDP or inflation significantly affects the systematic risk of a stock. Stocks have different levels of exposure to these factors, translating into varying levels of systematic risk. A stock highly sensitive to GDP changes may see its returns fluctuate substantially with economic cycles, whereas a stock sensitive to inflation may experience volatility as inflation rates change. These factors contribute to the stock's overall beta, representing its risk relative to the market and affecting expected returns as explained by CAPM .
Calculating the expected return and standard deviation of an individual stock before adding it to a portfolio is important because it provides essential information for evaluating the stock's potential contribution to the portfolio's overall risk-return profile. Expected return gives an estimate of the potential reward, while the standard deviation measures the risk or variability of returns. These metrics help investors assess whether the stock aligns with their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and how it may impact the portfolio's diversification and efficiency .