Subject Mathematics:

Can we use the probabilities to judge?

men? The case of the Dreyfus affair.
Introduction :
As they developed, mathematics has
invading courtrooms, notably with the development of the
scientific police, and they play a considerable role because, being
exact sciences, they provide an argument of authority. But this argument can
to be a source of absolute truth as well as scientific illusion and error
judicial; at least when applied wrongly and inappropriately.
To study the question of whether one can use probability calculation
To judge men, I relied on a work by Leila.
Schneps, LesMaths in court, where she examines several cases of errors
judicial issues arising from calculation errors, and based on the
deference inspires in non-specialists the reasoning
numbered.
I studied a famous case from the book, the case of the Dreyfus affair.

Piano:
1 Context of the Dreyfus affair:
A) General context Bertillon and his 'proofs'
2 examples of error:
A) Explanation of Berthion B) Bertiion errors
3 Conclusions:
A) Conciuslon Dreyfus B) General conclusion

Part 1 :
A)

To put you back in context, there is at the heart of this affair, a

letter proposing to sell documents to Germany
confidential military. The writing resembles that of Dreyfus, furthermore, is
born in a territory that is now German and is Jewish, that is to say the culprit
ideal.
This affair led to 4 major trials, including 2 involving Dreyfus, where he was convicted.
twice:

B)

Alphonse Bertillon, recognized today as one of the founders ofthe

polIwhat is sciintfigureto intervene during these two trials. Mathematician already
Very recognized at the time, Bertillon will from his first words not leave any
doubt: the document was indeed written by Alfred Dreyfus and moreover, he will assert
it actually hides a secret message revealing therefore information well
more compromising than it seems.

Part 2:
A)

During the first trial, Bertillon will argue that the document contains a
message built around a probability calculation proving to be
wrong. But having only twenty minutes, I prefer to focus on the second one.
trial.
During the second trial, Bertillon will arrive with a new argument.
mathematics
The slip is a squared paper. Bertillon was convinced that the
Word placement in relation to vertical lines could not result from the
chance. To prove his statements, he determined 5 possible positions of the words by
in relation to a vertical line (given the width of the pen stroke)
(was used) (on the line, slightly to the right, slightly to the left, very to the right,
far left
He then chooses to focus his attention on 26 words (which he considers as a
well-representative sample of all the words in the text). He observed them at the
look and note on the 26 strokes of the pen at the beginning of each word, 8
seemed to share a special characteristic: they were positioned in
identified in relation to the vertical lines.
The probability that a quill trait is in a given position is 1/5.
(there are 5 possible positions), Bertillon concluded that the probability of observing
these coincidences were thus (1/5) ^8 = 0.00000256, which corresponds to
one chance in four hundred thousand. He concludes that the placement
of so many first letters in equivalent positions was
necessarily the result of the author's intention, and hid without the slightest
doubt a secret code.
This argument, explained by Bertillon in a much more complex way, is sufficient to
convening seven jurors once again condemned Dreyfus,
this time the public opinion and even certain people from the government
had passed to the side of the Dreyfusards.

B)

In reality, Bertillon's reasoning was incorrect for me, a student of

Having followed the math specialty program in high school seems obvious but
it clearly was not for the jury.
Trial number two:
Bertillon had not seen the blnomlaieprésente that had falsified his calculation.
probability.
Indeed:
In this context, the random variable iuiest 8 follows a binomial distribution.
parameters n=26 and p=1/5 because it is the repetition of 26 Bernoulli trials,
with the probability of success 'being in the same position' is 1/5.

Ainsila probability refers to 26 pairs of feather traits, 8 of them being

positioned in the same position with respect to a vertical line is then
8 26−8
26 1 ∗ 1− 1
PX=8=
( )
( )( ) ( )
8
∗
5 5
=0 . 0 7

It is a probability 30,000 times greater than that calculated by Bertillon.

had actually calculated the probability that there are 8 coincidences out of 8 and not 8 out of 26
This colossal error makes everything that follows suspect.

Part 3/ conclusion:
 A)

In conclusion, the role played by Bertillon in the Dreyfus affair is an example of

the danger of mathematical arguments in front of jurors. Bertillon was
simply anti-Semitic and therefore convinced that Dreyfus was guilty and he has
convinced the magistrates twice with arguments
completely ruined erroneous mathematics by the hair.
B)

I think therefore that probabilities should not be banned from courtrooms.

the importance of genetic analysis would be enough to make it impossible, but
hope for more if there are procedures to ensure that
the calculations are correct and used wisely, and prudence is present
the misleading face of the authority effect of mathematics.

Opening / current failures in Canada:

A more modern example showing that the stakes of the subject are still current.
current securities come from Canada and evaluate the
recidivism of convicted individuals through probability calculations and they are very
criticized for denying the individual's free will and trapping them in
probabilities. They also take into account, in the probability calculation,
Some variables are quite problematic (e.g.: origins).

Preparation for questions:

Definitions:

Lols blnomlaies :
Drawing a coin (heads or tails).
Laiol blnomlaie, of parameters n and p, is the probability of a random variable X.
equal to the number of successes encountered during a repetition of n Bernoulli trials,
p being the probability of success in each of them.
Bernoulli trial: a Bernoulli trial with parameter p (real number between 0 and 1)
is a random experiment (that is, subject to chance) with two outcomes, the
success or failure. The typical example is the toss of a coin possibly
p. We note p as the probability of getting heads (which corresponds to a success, let’s say) and 1-p
to obtain face.
Varlabie aiéatolre: variable whose value is determined after the realization of a
phenomenon, experience or event, random.
Lelia Schneps; IES math at Trlbunai (2021):
Highlighting the risks of uncontrolled use of mathematics in front of the
courts, the authors highlight the pitfalls of a purely quantitative argumentation,
besides the more or less gross reasoning errors committed by the experts
(often self-proclaimed).
Lelia Schneps is an American mathematician living in France. CNRS research director at
the Jussieu Institute of Mathematics, it specializes in number theory. Aside from its
research activities, she has published a book and articles on the uses and abuses of
mathematics in criminal affairs.

What I have loved:

I loved the precision in the narratives, it had to be clear, the sense of suspense.
and the alert style of the book
Leila Schneps invites you to think better and more freely.
What I have halfway loved:
Sometimes does not develop mathematical reasoning enough.
Aiphonse Bertiion:
born in Paris on April 22, 1853, and died in Paris on February 13, 1914, was a French criminologist. He
is the founder, in 1882, of the first criminal identification police laboratory and the
creator of judicial anthropometry (the technique concerns the measurement of
dimensional characteristics of a human being) (father of DNA and fingerprinting)
called 'Bertillon system' or 'Bertillonage', a system of identification quickly
adopted throughout Europe, then in the United States, and used in France until 1970

Henry Poincaré :
Mathematician, theoretical physicist, and philosopher of science, born on April 29, 1854.
in Nancy and died on July 17, 1912 in Paris.

Poincaré made major contributions in optics and infinitesimal calculus.

(differential and integral calculus).
1himtrial:

Bertiion :

Bertillon suspected that the report had been calculated on a 'key' which consisted of the word
interestrepeatedcontinuouslywithoutspacesHecalculatedthefrequencyoflettersontheform
corresponded precisely to a letter of the 'key', and the expected probability for a
random correspondence. He found twice as many matches as expected.
Instead of matching 7 times with the first t of interest, we find it 15 times: for the first é,
instead of 26 matches, there are 40 for the r; 20 instead of 9 for the second
39 instead of 19, and for the final t, 10 instead of 6....

Error:

By using two keys, he doubled the probabilities of the letters corresponding with the
invoice. He forgot to multiply the probabilities by two.

Another example of a book's story: The story of a family tragedy: the affair of Sally Clark:

Meadow

In 1996, and then in 1998, a couple of London lawyers, Steve and Sally Clark, lost two
infants. The doctor in charge of the autopsy after the second death notes a broken rib.
such a hemorrhage of the retina, a frequent sign of suffocation. He suspects abuse;
the mother is arrested for murder. During the trial, the highly publicized Roy Meadow intervenes,
pediatrician and discoverer of "Munchausen syndrome by proxy" (MSBP) :
some mothers invent illnesses for their child - to the point of sometimes putting their life at risk
in danger - in order to obtain the benevolent attention of the medical staff.

Meadow was one of the most sought-after experts in the courts of justice at the time. When he...
present in front of the court responsible for judging Sally Clark, he is convinced that he is dealing with a
new case of SMPP, and it applies to prove it. "Statistical studies have shown that
the probability that sudden infant death occurs in a family like that of
Clark is about 1 in 8,543, he says at the bar. This means that the probability that two
Sudden deaths occurring in the same family is equal to the square of that number, approximately
1 chance in 73 million: so low that it borders on impossibility. Problem: if it
the first figure is acceptable, as it is based on rigorous statistics, the choice of
giving the square to assess the probability of a second natural death proceeds from a
fundamental error.

error

The probability of multiple concurrent events, remind Leila Schneps and Coralie.
Colmez, calculate by multiplying the probability of each of these events... under the condition
a pregnant woman has a one in two chance of giving
birth to a girl. The probability of giving birth to two girls during two pregnancies
is no longer just 1 out of 4. This is obviously not the case if it involves twins: both
births are no longer independent, and the probability of giving birth to two girls
remainder of 1 out of 2.

The astronomical figure of 1 in 73 million presented to the jury in the Sally Clark case assumed
two sudden infant deaths in the same family were two events
random and independent of one another - a questionable idea since, without always identifying
the causes of death, doctors admit the idea of genetic or related factors
the family environment. "In addition to the possibility that Sally's babies were dead
Without reason, and the possibility that they killed them, the authors explain, there was another
possibility, by far the most likely of the three: that they died of a medical cause
the doctors had not managed to determine. But no one presented this possibility.
»

Sally Clark had in the eyes of the jurors a one in 73 million chance of being innocent: she
was sentenced to life imprisonment. During the following months, her husband worked on
proving his innocence. He succeeded in 2003 – less by correcting the calculation error of
Meadow is in the process of having the medical file of her second child re-examined.
The doctors discovered that the baby was suffering from a very severe infection.
golden staphylococci. Sally was freed. However, she was unable to regain a life.
normal, and died three years later from alcohol poisoning.

Difficulties in accounting in Canada:

Lesbian actuarial assessments from Canada evaluate the risk of recidivism of

condemned by probability calculations are highly criticized because they deny free
an individual referee and locks them into probabilities. They also take into account,
In probability calculation, some variables are quite problematic (e.g., origins).

Professional project / planned studies / relationship with the subject /

contribution of the subject :

The subject deals with a good example of a mathematics application (something I appreciate).

Enrolled in the Guis 'Thau high school in Nantes, I deepened and developed a growing taste for it.
married to the two specialties I chose are mathematics and sciences
economic and social.
As for mathematics, my parents always told me that I was good at math, I
I didn't feel it at all. But this year of final year has brought me a real awakening.
Thanks to passionate and attentive teachers, they sometimes went off the syllabus.
math expert), I have become passionate about this subject by developing a taste for it.
resolution of abstract problems, intellectual gymnastics, the discovery of infinity
the mathematical universe and also to its more concrete applications
Mathematics can have and also appreciating all personal satisfaction.
and confidence in oneself brings this matter.

I particularly enjoyed studying the complex universe, the application of matrices in

economics and statistics or even arithmetic in coding systems; all these
I really like the facets of mathematics.
As for the economic and social sciences, I have become increasingly interested in them.
I have realized that they allow us to understand contemporary society, its
organization, its functioning, and a number of political issues underpinning it
public debate. To take a now very well-known example, the debate on the reform of the
retirement has so animated our society in recent months that it has given the opportunity to
Many economists to express themselves, and one of these economists, Michaël Zemmour (professor
Paris has even swayed public opinion by engaging in education on the
TV studios.

I wish to continue down this path starting next year, that is to say continue with math.
and discover their multiple applications in economics.

I was first taken to Clemenceau but preferred to go to Assas or matter me

would correspond better and wanted change
Not very concrete professional project: finance/music/tourism, mainly envision myself in
my studies where I want to combine math and economics.

Practical extracurricular / center of interest:

Escalade
2. Trumpet
3. Video production
4. Voyage
5. Corvol (CLEJ)