Effectiveness of profiling in the

context of national security

Jimmy Bourque, Ph. D.

Stefanie LeBlanc, M.A.
Anouk Utzschneider, M. Sc.
Christopher Wright, M.A.

March 2009

The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors only.
and do not necessarily reflect opinions
from the Canadian Human Rights Commission or from the Foundation
Canadian racial relations.

Also available in English under the title The Effectiveness of Profiling from a National
Security Perspective
Research: Jimmy Bourque
Stefanie Renee LeBlanc
Anouk Utzschneider
Christopher Wright
Guylaine Doucet
Samuel LeBlanc

Writing: Jimmy Bourque

Stefanie Renee LeBlanc
Anouk Utzschneider
Christopher Wright

Scientific revision: I Roseline Alric

Pr. Éric Beauregard
I Judy Begley
Mr. Frédéric Diaz
My name is Johanne Landry
Dr. Luc Morin
I, Thomas P. Walsh

Linguistic revision: Katherine Pérusse

Coordination: Jimmy Bourque

Gaëtane Goguen

1
Acknowledgments
We would like to warmly thank the following people, without whom the drafting of this report
would not have been possible:

Alric, Roseline
Lawyer

Beaton, Ann
Professor, School of Psychology
University of Moncton

Éric Beauregard
Professor, School of Criminology
Simon Fraser University

Judy Begley
Lawyer

Benimmas, Aïcha
Professor, Faculty of Education Sciences
University of Moncton

Diaz, Frédéric
Lecturer
University of Montreal and National Police School of Quebec

Doucet, Guylaine
Research assistant
University of Moncton

Eke, Angela
Research Service Coordinator
Behavioral Science and Analysis Department
Ontario Provincial Police

Godefroid, Françoise
Behavioral analyst
Belgian Federal Police

Goguen, Gaëtane
Administrative Secretary
Research and Development Center in Education (CRDE)

Cool, Jean-Pierre
Professor, Department of Criminology
University of Montreal

2
Maciej Karpinski
Analyst, Canadian Human Rights Commission

Landry, Johanne M.
Lawyer

LeBlanc, Samuel
Research assistant
University of Moncton

Lines, Kathryn J.
Chief Superintendent
Investigation and Support Office
Ontario Provincial Police

Morin, Luc
Psychiatrist

O’Grady, Kevin
Deputy Legal Attaché
Embassy of the United States

Parent, Geneviève
Master's candidate
University of Montreal

Pérusse, Katherine
Linguistic reviser

Theroux, Charles
Director, Division of Research and Statistical Analysis
Canadian Human Rights Commission

Thibault, Jean-François
Professor, Department of Political Science
University of Moncton

Van Allen, Jim

Sergeant Detective
Department of Behavioral Sciences
Ontario Provincial Police

Walsh, Thomas P.
Lawyer

Woods, Glenn
International Criminal Investigative Analysis Fellowship

3
Summary
Reminder of the issue
• This report is situated in the context where security agencies need tools
to ensure national security, but where there is sensitivity regarding rights
protected by the Canadian Human Rights Act;
• Specifically, this report examines whether profiling constitutes a valid and effective means
for the State to ensure national security.

Methodological framework
• Three methods were used to identify the 277 documents recorded: 1) the
consultation of computerized databases and search engines
documentary, 2) the "snowball" method, which involves consulting the references of
texts already obtained and 3) recommendations from experts in various fields;
• The recorded texts come from a range of disciplines, but mainly from the
criminology, psychology, and law;
• They cover a period ranging from 1965 to 2008 and profiling experiments in ten
countries spread across four continents;
• The review of the writings allowed for consulting various types of documents, mostly ...
scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals;
• Empirical treatment, which involves the collection and analysis of data, has been prioritized.
for the assessment of the effectiveness of profiling;
• The analysis of the collected documents was carried out using two criteria: the level and
the strength of evidence. The studies whose methodological design had shortcomings
Major issues that could undermine credibility were systematically eliminated.

Behavioral profiling
• Criminal profiling can be defined as a technique that facilitates identification.
the main characteristics of personality and behavior in a suspect, in
based on the elements of the crime he committed" (Beauregard and Proulx, 2001, p. 20);
• In Canada, behavioral analysis services carry out the following tasks:
development of profiles of unidentified offenders, analysis of crime scenes,
reconstruction of crime scenes, indirect assessment of personalities, advice on the
investigation or interrogation plan, assistance in executing search warrants,
analysis of statements or testimonies, analysis during suspicious deaths, evaluation of
risk (threat assessment) and presentation of the services offered;
• In North America, the training of profilers is the responsibility of
the International Criminal Investigative Analysis Fellowship (ICIAF) since 1992;
• Profiling is most often used in cases where police have little
of indices that can contribute to solving a case. However, the purpose of profiling is not
to identify directly the person responsible for the crime but rather the characteristics
the most likely of the wanted criminal;

4
 • The practice of profiling is based on certain assumptions: 1) human behaviors
are predictable, 2) offenders are consistent in the way they commit their
crimes and can be distinguished from other offenders and 3) the way they
committing their crimes is related to their personal characteristics;
• Criminal profiling is currently used within three phases of
criminal justice process: the investigation phase, the arrest phase and the
trial
• In Canada, three agencies have a section dedicated to criminal profiling: the Section
special services and behavior sciences of the RCMP, the Analysis Service
of the behavior of the Sûreté du Québec and the Behavioral Sciences Section of
the Ontario Provincial Police;
• We cannot conclude that behavioral profiling works in a way
systematic. However, there is anecdotal evidence that profiling can
to operate
• Literature is filled with approaches and typologies, but these models suffer from
the absence of theoretical foundations and empirical validations. For these reasons, none of the
proposed models cannot be considered "scientific";
• At the empirical level, few studies meet the rigorous standards required of a
credible scientific research. We believe that profiling may be possible
may contribute to the police investigation, but it is still more of an art than a
science
• We believe that profiling methods should be formalized, that criteria
of returns should be formulated and that empirical research should be conducted
companies in order to measure the actual effectiveness of criminal profiling in Canada.

Geographic profiling
• Geographic profiling can be defined as [TRANSLATION] " […] a strategy
information intended […] for criminal investigations that analyzes the information of the
crime scene to determine what is the most likely location in which it is located
"residence of the aggressor" (Rossmo, 2000, p. 259).
• Its use is based on a number of assumptions: 1) the profile must be based on
several crime scenes (several crimes committed by the same individual or several)
places associated with the same crime); 2) crime scenes must be attributable to the
same offender; 3) the place of residence (or base of operations) and the area of activity
The criminal of the individual who commits the crimes should not be separated by a long
route; 4) the distribution of crime scenes must be relatively uniform around the
residence or the operation base of the offender and 5) the offender must not
change the base of operation (anchor point) or operate from multiple bases of operation
different during his crime spree;
• The potential effectiveness of geographic profiling, particularly in terms of reduction of
the research area has been demonstrated empirically;
• The knowledge of a limited number of simple heuristics by the police forces.
seems to lead to results equivalent to those obtained by the software;
• The practice of geographical profiling is carried out in two steps: 1) assignment of a
series of crimes against the same offender and 2) establishment of a geographic profile

5
 defining the research area. It has been empirically demonstrated that the second step
can be accomplished relatively efficiently, the research does not allow for judging
the investigators' ability to fulfill the first.

Prospective profiling
• The principle behind profiling is to develop
correlations between a particular criminal activity and membership in a defined group
by certain features in order to help the police identify potential suspects within the framework
of investigations. Criminal profiling [prospective] uses an analysis based on the
probabilities intended to identify suspects and subject them to surveillance
(Harcourt 2003, p. 109).
• The practice of proactive profiling is based on two fundamental assumptions: 1) the
members of certain social groups demonstrate a crime rate
proportionally higher than their representation in the general population and 2) if
Such a situation is observed, it is fair and effective to target these groups.
proportionally to their crime rate in the allocation of police resources;
• In addition to these two postulates, it is assumed that criminals act in a way
rational and that they will react to the fluctuation of the probabilities of being taken. This is the logic
of deterrence: it is assumed that if the probabilities of being arrested for a
Crime increases, the crime rate will decrease accordingly;
• In all the areas studied, the effectiveness of profiling does not receive
practically no empirical support;
• There seems to be no exception to the rule that the actuarial approach ...
more efficient than a more heuristic profiling;
• No statistical link has been convincingly established between an ethnic group and
a given form of crime;
• Profiling based, in whole or in part, on sociodemographic characteristics
is sensitive to various forms of substitution that consist of organizations
criminals, to modify the profile of their agents;
• The review of scientific writings did not allow us to legitimize the practice of
prospective profiling in scientific, legal, and moral terms, nor even on the level of
the risk assessment for statistically rare events.

Judgment in situations of uncertainty

• A decision heuristic is a cognitive shortcut for quickly assessing a
the term "decision-making heuristic" refers to a strategy,
whether deliberate or not, based on a natural assessment for the purpose of
to produce an estimate or a prediction" (Tversky and Kahneman 2002, p. 20).
• Heuristics, as opposed to purely analytical or rational models,
would better reflect the way people generally operate in situations
real decision-making;

6
 • These heuristics, however, lead to predictable biases. Among the best-known biases...
documented, we find the representativeness bias, the weighting biases, the bias
cognitive availability and mental contamination;
• Despite the existence of these biases and the fact that they often lead to predictions
erroneous, men and women often demonstrate a frequent excess of confidence in their
ability to predict rare events;
• These biases have been studied in various contexts of clinical judgment, where it has
It has been shown that the latter was systematically surpassed by actuarial judgment;
• The clinician often forms an implicit hypothesis quite early in the analysis process.
which then guides his information search and interpretation. The existence of this bias
was also observed in the context of the investigation.

General conclusion
• The systematic effectiveness of criminal profiling has not been demonstrated in a way
empirical. However, we cannot conclude that this practice has no merit;
• Criminal profiling can possibly be seen as a useful art in the process.
of police investigation, but it cannot currently claim the status of science;
• Geographic profiling has more substantial conceptualization efforts and
solid empirical support regarding the reduction of the research area from the
geographic coordinates of crime scenes;
• On the other hand, the research fails to verify to what extent analysts succeed.
to assign a series of crimes to the same offender, what is called analysis of
links (linkage analysis);
• Prospective profiling must be divided into two categories: profiling concerning
frequent events and the one dealing with very rare events (low base-rate);
• In the first case, it has been shown that the clinical approach or heuristic profiling
proved ineffective; this observation quickly led to the adoption of actuarial measures
risk assessment, which have proven to be significantly more effective;
• In the second case, that of particularly rare events, no research
Empirical evidence could not be found to support the use of profiling or assessment.
actuarial risk.

Recommendations

The methods of inference for behavioral profiling should be formalized and

recorded (which does not mean, let us clarify, that they must be made public since
criminals would then obtain a manual to thwart this practice.

Criteria for performance to evaluate the actual effectiveness of profiling

behavioral should be formulated.

Research should be conducted to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of

behavioral profiling in the Canadian context. This research should particularly focus on

7
on three elements: 1) the performance of profilers compared to that of detectives does not
not having such training (in order to establish the added value of profiling to the methods
conventional surveys), 2) the accuracy of profiles (by comparing the predictions of
profilers to the characteristics of offenders in resolved cases) and 3) the actual contribution
from profiling to the identification and arrest of suspects.

The way to choose and enter the coordinates for geographic profiling should be
standardized (for example, if an altercation begins in a bar, continues outside and
ended a few streets away with a homicide, what (coordinates) mark
the location of the crime?

Research should be conducted to assess the performance of analysts during

from the first step (attributing crimes to the same suspect) of profiling practice
geographical.

Agencies should continue to use actuarial methods for evaluation.

risk rather than prospective profiling or clinical judgment.

To optimize risk assessment, particularly with regard to terrorism, it is

crucial that agencies have credible, up-to-date, and relevant information. The means
should be implemented to allow intelligence services to obtain these
information, in Canada as abroad, in compliance with the Constitution and the law
international.

The flow of information between agencies, notably the RCMP, the CSIS, and the CBSA,
should be favored and optimized.

Criteria for the performance of various actuarial tools used by agencies should
should be assessed periodically (which
joins a recommendation from the 2007 report of Auditor General S. Fraser regarding
the CBSA).

Ethical standards should be formulated to guide the practice of evaluation.

risk from an actuarial perspective.

8
Table of contents
Thank yous .................................................................................................................................2
Summary .........................................................................................................................................4
Reminder of the issue..........................................................................................................4
Methodological framework
Behavioral profiling .......................................................................................................4
Geographical profiling ...........................................................................................................5
Prospective profiling .................................................................................................................6
Judgment in situations of uncertainty.........................................................................................6
General conclusione .7
Recommendation........................................................................................................................7
Table of contentss............................................................................................................................9
List of acronyms ...............................................................................................................................12
1. Introductionn ................................................................................................................................13
1.1 Reminder of the issue..................................................................................................13
1.2 Objective.................................................................................................................................14
1.3 Report Outline .....................................................................................................................15
2. Methodological framework ...............................................................................................................15
2.1 Sources and research criteria ...........................................................................................15
2.1.1 Source Discipline ..............................................................................................16
2.1.2 Year of publication.....................................................................................................17
2.1.3 Document type .........................................................................................................17
2.1.4 Language of publicationn ...................................................................................................18
2.2 Keywordss .18
2.3 Document Classification ...............................................................................................18
2.3.1 Treatment of the subject
2.3.2 Approache .......................................................................................................................19
2.3.3 Countries ...............................................................................................................................19
2.3.4 Profiling criteriae ......................................................................................................19
2.3.5 Type of intervention targeted................................................................................................19
2.4 Analysis criteriae.................................................................................................................20
2.4.1 Level of evidence...........................................................................................................20
2.4.2 Burden of proof .........................................................................................................20
3. Behavioral profiling
3.1 History and definition
3.2 The practice of behavioral profiling ............................................................................22
3.2.1 Who are the 'profilers'? ...........................................................................................22
3.2.2 The practice of behavioral profilingl .....................................................................25
3.2.3 The use of profiling at the international levell .........................................................27
3.3 Theoretical framework ....................................................................................................................28
3.3.1 Homicides
Sexual crimes
3.3.3 Criminal Fires........................................................................................................33
35
3.4 Critique of existing modelss .36

9
 Empirical support
3.5.1 General assessments....................................................................................................36
3.5.2 Homicides
3.5.3 Sexual Aggressions........................................................................................39
3.5.4 Criminal fires
3.5.5 Burglary
3.6 Admissibility before the courts
3.6.1 Eligibility Criteria .................................................................................................40
3.6.2 Profiling in front of the courts..................................................................................41
3.6.3 Implications
3.7 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................47
3.7.1 Summary ......................................................................................................................47
3.7.2 Limits...........................................................................................................................48
3.7.3 Recommendations
4. Geographic profiling ................................................................................................................49
4.1 Theoretical framework ....................................................................................................................49
4.1.1 Theory of Routine ActionRoutine activity theory)................................................50
4.1.2 Theory of Crime PatternsCrime pattern theory)................................................51
4.1.3 Theory of Rational ChoiceRational choice theory) ....................................................51
4.2 Applicationn ...........................................................................................................................53
4.3 Empirical support ...............................................................54
4.3.1 Reduction of the search areae...................................................................................54
4.3.2 Precisionn ........................................................................................................................54
4.3.3 Heuristics versus software
4.3.4 Limites...........................................................................................................................56
4.4 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................56
4.4.1 Summary
4.4.2 Limits
4.4.3 Recommendations
5. Prospect profiling ...............................................................................................................57
5.1 Context setting...................................................................................................................58
5.2 Definitions59
5.3 Fundamental Postulates........................................................................................................59
5.4 Limits to the applicability of the actuarial modell .61
5.5 General assessment of the potential of profiling
5.6 Empirical Support ................................................................................................................63
5.6.1 Fight against drug traffickings ...............................................................................63
5.6.2 Fight against terrorism ..............................................................................................66
5.6.3 Assessment of the risk of recurrence ............................................................................70
5.6.4 Prevention of School Shootings .................................................................79
5.7 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................83
5.7.1 Summary ......................................................................................................................83
5.7.2 Limits
5.7.3 Recommendations
6. Judgment in Situations of Uncertainty.......................................................................................85
6.1 Definitions............................................................................................................................85
6.2 The two cognitive systems.................................................................................................86

10
 6.3 Cognitive biases
6.4 Application to the study of profiling........................................................................................87
7. General conclusione ...................................................................................................................88
Bibliographye.
Unable to access the specified URL for translation.x.98

11
List of acronyms
ASFC Canada Border Services Agency
Business As UsualBehavioral Analysis Unit
BKA Federal Criminal Police Office
CENTCOM Central Command
CGT Criminal geographical targeting
DEA Drug Enforcement Administration
EU European Union
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation
FLQ Quebec Liberation Front
GRC Royal Canadian Mounted Police
ICIAF International Criminal Investigative Analysis Fellowship
JTC Journey to crime
Lao Legislative Analyst’s Office
TLET Tigers of the liberation of Tamil Eelam
MnSOST-R Minnesota Sexual Offender Screening Tool - Revised
MSP Maryland State Police
NCAVC National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime
PPO Ontario Provincial Police
PCL-R Hare Psychopathy Checklist – Revised
Revised)
Kurdistan Workers'
Kurdistan
Party Workers' Party
RMC Risk Matrix - Combined
RMS Risk Matrix - Sexual
RMV Risk Matrix - Violent
RRASOR Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism
SCAN Scientific Content Analysis
SCRS Canadian Security Intelligence Service
SIG Geographic Information System
QUESTION Sex Offender Risk Assessment Guide
sexual offenders
SVR-20 Sexual Violence Risk - 20
U.S. United States
USMC United States Marine Corps
ViCAP Violent Criminal Apprehension Program
violent offenders
ViCLAS Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System
violent crimes
ENEMY Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

12
1. Introduction
Since the events of September 11, 2001, Canadian citizens are increasingly concerned about
more about national security. Currently, a debate on the use of profiling is underway
regarding its potentially harmful effects on individuals belonging to a
minority group (Gabor, 2004; Wortley and Tanner, 2003, 2005) and its real contribution to maintenance
of public safety. However, profiling is a policing tactic that has existed for quite some time.
before the events of September 11, among other things in the context of the fight against trafficking
drugs and the prediction of traits and characteristics of various types of criminals, such as
which is carried out during surveys. Despite the ethical questions that must necessarily
arise around such a practice, it remains that several advocates of profiling support it
effectiveness (or at least usefulness).

1.1 Reminder of the issue

This report is set in the context where security agencies need tools in order to
to ensure national security, but where there is sensitivity regarding the rights protected by the law
Canadian on human rights. As noted by Karpinski and Théroux (2008) in
their report Dilemmas regarding ensuring national security while protecting rights
from the person's perspective: point of view of the Canadian Human Rights Commission, the police,
border service agencies and intelligence services are struggling to carry out their
responsibility to ensure safety for citizens while avoiding being the instigators of
discrimination. In light of the growing popularity of profiling, partly attributable to the image it conveys
presents the media in popular culture, this report examines the question of
the real effectiveness of the methods involved in this practice. Specifically, this report
examine whether profiling is a valid and effective means for the State in maintaining
national security.

The very definition of profiling raises issues not only for the ethical debate
currently ongoing, but also for empirical research dealing with its usefulness and its
multiple functions. First, its various often divergent connotations can easily
confusing. More specifically, the term profiling is sometimes used in a context
which makes it analogous to the act of discrimination. The authors who adopt this definition of
profiling, as Wortley and Tanner (2003; 2005) describe this practice as the act of targeting a
individual due to their race or ethnic affiliation, and this, without other indicators
reasonable suspicions of the individual committing a crime. In contrast, the majority of the literature
empirical discussion of profiling addresses this construct in a purely descriptive sense of
criminal investigation methods and rather refers to the cataloging of particular features
socio-demographic; but it also addresses individual provisions and
psychological, personality traits, geographical locations and, where applicable,
criminal and judicial records of various types of criminals.

For practical reasons and to facilitate the reader's understanding, it is important

to clarify here that it is mainly this second type of profiling that we are interested in

13
the preparation of this report. If we emphasize the importance of clarifying this definition in
the context of the objectives of this work is that we must also clarify this
that this report does not aim to; that is to say an assessment of the harmful psychosocial effects
what could result from the use of such a practice. However, we recognize that it turns out
difficult to write such a study without any reference to the issues that this practice poses for
the targeted individuals.

While profiling may seem to be a phenomenon that suddenly takes on significance, it remains that
the influence of the media on shaping popular perceptions (often erroneous) towards
the profiler can be insidious. Indeed, the images conveyed by various police series
as well as the public attention generated by certain individuals presenting themselves as profilers
offer an often idealized image of the real role that the 'authentic' profiler takes on during a
criminal investigation. It results in the popular image of a nearly mythical profiler, endowed with
capabilities and special intuitions that allow him to always successfully target the criminal
sought after.

However, it is important to mention two limitations that research on profiling entails.

in North America for the objectives targeted by this report. On one hand, the number of profilers
is currently very limited in Canada, which does not make it easier to carry out and
to make accessible empirical studies that address the effectiveness of this practice - of
studies that would provide a crucial complement to the work presented here. On the other hand, for this
who are the empirical studies that exist on the effectiveness of profiling, the vast majority
of these must necessarily be interpreted with caution, given the fact that 1)
rare are the authentic profilers who participate in studies and expose their methods and
their skills (Turvey, 1999) and 2) it remains difficult to accurately discern who are the
individuals who present themselves as profilers in searches since in several countries, the
profiling is not yet a regulated profession, so anyone can legally engage in it.
daughters of the profiler title (this is not the case in Canada). Furthermore, the practice of
Profiling, just like the criteria required to become a profiler, can vary significantly.
from one country to another. Unfortunately, it is mainly self-proclaimed profilers who participate
in published studies. Among this type of profilers, few have training
formula in the field. Therefore, the credibility of the profilers who participated in the majority
Research remains highly variable.

1.2 Objective

This report aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the various types of profiling as it stands.
draws on empirical writings on the subject. More specifically, this project aims to evaluate, using a
literature review critique, if the various profiling methods would be sufficient
developed and sophisticated to justify their application in the name of national security. Finally,
the results of this research, as well as the conclusions drawn from this evaluation,
will be used to formulate recommendations for the Canadian Commission on Rights of the
person regarding the consideration to be given to this survey method.

14
1.3 Report Outline

This report will address the empirical effectiveness of profiling as observed in various
research and application contexts. Thus, the methodological framework and the criteria of
Employee search to assess the effectiveness of profiling will be presented first. Then, the
results of empirical research regarding the effectiveness of behavioral profiling and
geographical, as well as its admissibility before the courts will be introduced. The section
The following, which focuses specifically on the preventive aspect of profiling, addresses more specifically
applications of this practice in the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, the
shootings in schools and the prevention of recidivism among incarcerated individuals. The management
decisions in situations of uncertainty, particularly cognitive biases and heuristics
decisional manifested when an individual must necessarily make a decision of order
secure from restricted, insufficient or ambiguous data will be addressed in the sixth
report section. Finally, the conclusions drawn from the empirical results as well as the
inherent limitations of the research published so far on profiling will be presented in the
last section.

2. Methodological Framework
2.1 Sources and research criteria

Three main methods were used to identify the recorded documents: 1) the
consultation of computerized databases and research engines, 2) the
"snowball" method, which involves consulting the references of already obtained texts and 3)
the recommendations of experts from various fields.

The databases and search engines consulted include: Cambridge Journals Online,
Cambridge Scientific Abstracts, Canadian Research Index, ERIC, FRANCIS, Google Scholar,
JSTOR, ProQuest, PsycARTICLES, PsycInfo, Research Library, Sage Journals Online and Science
Direct.

Thirteen organizations were contacted due to their expertise in profiling. As of the date
Upon the release of the report, four of these organizations had accepted our request for collaboration
while two had declined it. No response was received from the other organizations.

We would like to highlight the exceptional collaboration of the Provincial Police.

Ontario (Angela Eke, Kathryn J. Lines, and Jim Van Allen) from the International Criminal
Investigative Analysis Fellowship (Glenn Woods) and the Belgian Federal Police (Françoise
Godefroid

15
 Contacted organizations and response dated October 31, 2008
Organism Country Response
Federal Criminal Police Office Germany None
Canada Border Services Agency Canada Negative
Drug Enforcement Administration United States None
Federal Bureau of Investigation United States Negative
Royal Canadian Mounted Police Canada Positive
Home Office England None
International Criminal Investigative Analysis Fellowship International Positive
MI5 England None
Belgian federal police Belgium Positive
Ontario Provincial Police Canada Positive
State Police Italy None
Quebec Provincial Police Canada None
U.S. Customs and Border Protection United States None

The following subsections specify our research criteria and categorize the 277
obtained documents.

2.1.1 Originating discipline

The recorded texts come from a range of disciplines, but predominantly from the
criminology (200), psychology (70), and law (42). The writings from the field of
Education specifically addresses the phenomenon of school shootings.

Disciplines of origin of the documents1

Discipline
Criminology 200
Psychology 70
Right 42
Sociology 23
Political Science 12
Education 10
Economy 7
Psychiatry 4
Computer Science 2

1
Some documents correspond to more than one discipline.

16
2.1.2 Year of publication

Publication year of the recorded documents

200
188
180
160
140
120
100
80 82
60
40
20
0 2 0 5
1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009
Year

The recorded writings cover a period from 1965 to 2008. The interest of the community
scientific regard on profiling has been thriving since the early 1990s:
five texts recorded between 1980 and 1989, the volume of publications obtained rises to 188 for the
decade from 2000 to 2009.

2.1.3 Document type

The review of the writings allowed for consulting various types of documents, mostly articles.
scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals (196). This type of publication, as well as the reports
presented to various government agencies, constitute the most important data sources
relevant and, generally, the most credible.

Types of documents recorded

Type n
Scientific articles 196
Books or chapters of books 30
Court decisions 16
Non-scientific articles 15
Reports 14
Correspondence 3
Working documents 1
Research summaries 1
Brochure 1

17
2.1.4 Language of publication

As part of this study, the research team consulted 262 documents in English and 15
documents in French (documents available in both languages are considered in the
language in which they were read.

2.2 Keywords

The search for documents involved the use of computerized databases and
documentary search engines (Google Scholar, PsycInfo, Science Direct, etc.). The words-
keys used to query search engines include notably behavioral profiling
behavioral profiling
crime scene profiling
criminal
distance
investigative psychology
personality profiling
prospective profiling
racial profiling
school shootings

2.3 Document Classification

2.3.1 Treatment of the subject

The documents were first categorized according to how they approached the subject of
profiling. The empirical treatment (144 texts), which involves the collection and analysis of data, has
a privileged summer for assessing the effectiveness of profiling.

Treatment of the subject

Treatment n
Empirical 144
Theoretical 58
Comment / essay 41
Review of writings 25
Court decision 17
Reference manual 9

18
2.3.2 Approach

The documents were then categorized according to their approach to the subject. The most empirical approach
the quantitative approach proves to be frequent (93).
2
Approaches to the subject

Approach n
Quantitative empirical 93
Case study 44
Qualitative empirical 25
Demographic analysis 23
Actuarial 23
Mathematical simulation 15
Analysis of road controls 12
Probabilistic 10

2.3.3 Countries

The consulted documents cover profiling experiences in ten countries distributed across four.
North America (Canada and the United States), Europe (Belgium, Finland, France,
United Kingdom and Sweden), Asia (South Korea and Japan) and Oceania (Australia).

2.3.4 Profiling Criteria

Of the texts consulted, 198 addressed behavioral profiling, 127 were based on
sociodemographic criteria (including racial profiling) and 49 addressed profiling
geographical. The same text could address more than one type of profiling criteria.

2.3.5 Type of intervention aimed

Type of intervention targeted3

Intervention n
Arrest following a crime 101
Prevention (without credible information) 92
Assessment of an individual's dangerousness 38
Prevention (crime information) 27
Prevention (information on crime and suspects) 22
Testimony in court 19

2
A single document can use more than one approach.
3
The same document can address more than one type of intervention.

19
The type of action targeted by profiling can be divided into six categories: 1) arrest following
1) the prevention of a crime, 2) the prevention of a crime without specific information, 3) the prevention of a crime
with credible information on the crime to be committed, 4) the prevention of a crime with
information about crime and individuals likely to commit it, 5) the evaluation of the
dangerousness or the risk of reoffending of an accused and 6) the testimony of experts during the phase
of the trial.

2.4 Analysis Criteria

The analysis of the collected documents, particularly the results of empirical studies, has been
carried out using two criteria: the level and the strength of the evidence. However, previously, the
studies whose methodological design had major shortcomings to the point of undermining it
credibility was systematically eliminated.

2.4.1 Level of evidence

The first criterion, the level of evidence, allows for a judgment to be made on the estimate.
methodological proposed by the analyzed study. The documents were thus classified according to three
levels of evidence:

1. Theoretical: the document does not directly address the effectiveness of profiling - it
doesn't perhaps even directly address profiling – but rather approaches it empirically
the links between crime scenes, criminal behaviors, personality traits, etc. These
Links contribute to establishing theoretical bases suggesting possible or probable effectiveness.
profiling. The works of Salfati, for example, belong to this category;
2. Restricted empirical: the document directly addresses the effectiveness of profiling but in
an artificial context, such as that of the laboratory. The study of profiling outside of its context
The natural exercise best supports a possible or probable effectiveness.
empirically. Most empirical articles on profiling, of which the
Kocsis's works (when they are methodologically robust enough) are of this
type;
3. Large empirical: the document directly studies the effectiveness of profiling in situ.
authentic, meaning that the analyzed data comes from actual practice of
profiling by police forces. Copson's study (1995) is one of the few
examples of this type of text.

2.4.2 Burden of proof

The strength of the evidence qualifies the magnitude of the support provided by the results of a research in
in favor of the hypothesis that profiling would be effective. Again here, the documents of which the
credibility was deemed sufficient and classified into three hierarchical levels:

20
 No support: the results are credible and suggest that profiling would not constitute
not an effective investigation or prevention method. This is particularly the case with studies
important on racial profiling;
Possible support: the results are credible but do not meet all the criteria.
scientific evidence allowing for the establishment of a causal relationship between the use of
profiling and an improvement in the results of police investigations or prevention of
crime. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of profiling remains one of the hypotheses that can
explain the results;
Strong support: the results are credible and meet the scientific criteria allowing
reasonably to establish a causal link between profiling and success of
surveys or crime prevention. In this case, the effectiveness of profiling would have no
doubt.

3. Behavioral profiling
3.1 History and definition

Many authors (e.g., Ainsworth, 2001) have emphasized the general misunderstanding of
public in relation to the work of profilers. This misunderstanding is partly fueled by
various television series that confer a mythical aura to profiling. Furthermore, within
Even within the rather small circle of profilers, two main schools of thought are opposed to each other:
those who consider criminal profiling to be an art and those who see it as a
science. Those in the first camp place more emphasis on their skills.
and intuitions and maintain that few people possess these essential qualities (Agrapart-
Delmas, 2001). Those who consider criminal profiling as a science believe that
the opposite, that anyone with access to the appropriate techniques can contribute to successfully achieve
a survey (Ainsworth, 2001). However, Hicks and Sales (2006) mention that the majority of
Profilers are reluctant to reveal their methods, for fear of criticism or plagiarism.

The very idea of profiling originated from works of fiction. Thus, the first recorded 'profiler' is
the character of Dupin in the work of Edgar Allan Poe The Murders in the Rue Morgue, published
in 1814. As for the first case of profiling in the context of a real investigation, it would be about
the analysis voluntarily provided by Thomas Bond, who participated in the autopsy of Mary Jane
Kelly, in the case of Jack the Ripper in England in 1888. As the perpetrator was never
can be identified, the accuracy of the profile cannot be assessed. More recently, the American army
called upon a psychoanalyst, Walter Langer, to create a psychological profile of Hitler in
1943. This profile had, among other things, correctly predicted that Hitler would prefer suicide to the
tests were also administered to American soldiers, but the
The results of this research remained secret (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

The first request for profiling expertise by law enforcement dates back to
1956, when the New York psychiatrist James A. Brussels was asked to provide a profile
the Mad Bomber (George Metesky). The profile provided by Brussels, which proved to be accurate.
impressive (including the clothes worn by the suspect at the time of his arrest), has largely
contributed to the subsequent popularity of this approach. In fact, it was already at the beginning of the 2000s

21
1960 when the FBI began to integrate profiling into its investigative practices, although the
The Behavioral Analysis Unit was founded in Quantico only in 1978 (Egger, 1999). In England,
profiling will take flight, in an approach borrowed from psychoanalysis and psychology
clinic, from the mid-1980s, after David Canter contributed to the investigation
leading to the arrest of John Duffy and David Mulcahy, the Railway Rapists (Hicks and Sales,
2006; McGrath, 2000). It is following this experience that Canter decides to establish the first
university program in investigative psychology at the University of
Liverpool in 1994 (Egger, 1999).

Despite the internal tensions, especially regarding profiling methods, it is

It is generally accepted that "Criminal profiling can be defined as a technique that promotes
the identification of the main characteristics of personality and behavior in a
suspect, based on the elements of the crime he committed" (Beauregard and Proulx, 2001, p.
20). According to the authors, criminal profiling can also be called psychological profiling,
personality profiling, criminal investigative analysis (FBI)
ICIAF) or investigative psychology (D. Canter) (Copson, 1995). If this
definition sits in most criminal profiling activities, it remains that the methods and
The approaches used are quite varied and include, broadly speaking, experience-based analysis.
and intuition, the clinical approach, and the statistical or actuarial approach (Snook, Eastwood,
Gendreau, Goggin and Cullen, 2007.

3.2 The practice of behavioral profiling

In Canada, behavioral analysis services carry out the following tasks:

elaboration of profiles of unidentified offenders, analysis of crime scenes, reconstruction
crime scenes, indirect assessment of personalities, advice on the investigation plan or
the interrogation, assistance in the execution of search warrants, analysis of statements or
testimonies, analysis during suspicious deaths, risk assessment (threat assessment) and
presentation of the services offered (Lines, 2008).

3.2.1 Who are the 'profilers'?

In its early days - and still today in some countries - criminal profiling was a
loosely structured practice. Copson (1995) noted that in England:

There is no body responsible for regulation of the

professional or ethical standards in terms of profiling. Apart from several
graduate courses in psychology, which study certain aspects, it
There is no academic title concerning profiling, and there are very few
didactic literature that directly addresses the principles or validity of
profiling (p. 1).

Traditionally, anyone could declare themselves a profiler. Consequently, this

discipline has been practiced by "experts" from several disciplines (psychiatry,

22
psychology, psychoanalysis, criminology, police forces, etc.), with or without experience
criminal investigation. However, in North America, profilers employed by major
Police forces (FBI, RCMP, OPP) are not recruited from self-proclaimed experts.

The training of North American profilers was initially under the responsibility of the police.
FBI Fellowship Program. However, after the closure of this program, the International
The Criminal Investigative Analysis Fellowship (ICIAF) was created in 1992 and took the
responsibility to provide rigorous and standardized training to profilers, henceforth referred to
Criminal investigative analysts (ICIAF, 2005).

Under the guidance of the ICIAF, not just anyone can become an analyst. To be able to apply
In the training program, the candidate must particularly meet the following requirements:

• Being a legitimate agent of the police forces;

• Have at least three years of recent experience investigating violent crimes
interpersonal;
• Possess a higher level of investigative skills, documented in writing, in the
field of interpersonal violence;
• Demonstrated the ability to articulate thoughts, both orally and in writing;
• Speak, write, understand, and read English fluently;
• To be approved and sponsored by a regular member of the ICIAF;
• To be recommended in writing by the appropriate representative of the agency that employs him/her;
• The agency that employs him must agree to cover all costs related to training;
• The agency employing him must confirm in writing that the candidate will primarily work
as an analyst minimally for the last year of the training program and the
three subsequent years.

Once admitted to the program lasting about two years, the candidate must study or obtain
training in the following areas: sexual offenders and typologies, sexual homicides,
forensic pathology, crime scene reconstruction, homicide investigations, death analysis
suspects, abductions and assaults of children, interviews and interrogations, behavior
normal and abnormal (psychiatry and psychology), development of analyses, risk assessment
(threat assessment), arson and bomb attacks, as well as a course on
development for instructors. The candidate must also familiarize themselves with the strategies of
public relations and the media, the analysis of blood spatter,
automated case association systems (ViCAP, ViCLAS), laboratory procedures
criminal analysis and scientific content analysis (SCAN) (ICIAF, 2005).

The candidate must also complete a minimum of six months of supervised investigative work.
member of the ICIAF or the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crimes (NCAVC) of the FBI,
including a minimum of two months of supervised work at the NCAVC. At the end of their training, the
The candidate must pass an exam. A case is then presented to him, and the candidate has thirty.
days to write his analysis and prepare the oral defense before the members of a committee
evaluation, whose decision must be unanimous. After a year as a regular associate member, the
application for regular member status (Full Fellow) can be submitted to
the ICIAF (ICIAF, 2005). Currently, Canada would have four analysts (Full Fellows), namely

23
two employed by the RCMP and two employed by the Ontario Provincial Police. Three
candidates are currently enrolled in the training program (two in the employment of the PPO and one
for the RCMP). The Sûreté du Québec would employ two analysts, but we do not know
their status.

24
3.2.2 The practice of behavioral profiling

Profiling is most often used in cases where police have few clues.
may contribute to solving a case and are uncertain about the type of individual having
perpetrated the crime. Profiling has thus been primarily used in the context of investigations related to
violations and homicides, particularly when these crimes have been committed in series
(Ainsworth, 2001). Profiling would in fact be particularly indicated in the case of crimes in
series of ritual crimes and those committed by individuals affected by particular forms of
psychopathologies (Beauregard and Proulx, 2001). The aim of profiling is not however
to directly identify the person responsible for the crime, but rather to make predictions
regarding the most likely characteristics of the wanted criminal (Douglas, Burgess, Burgess and
Ressler, 2006). The practice of profiling is based on certain postulates: 1) behaviors
Humans are predictable (Latour, Van Allen, Lépine and Nezan, 2007), 2) the offenders are
constants in the way they commit their crimes and can be distinguished from others
offenders and 3) the way they commit their crimes is related to their characteristics
personal (Goodwill and Alison, 2007). However, some social psychologists argue
that personality is not an effective predictor of action (Rossmo, 2000) and that one must hold on
account of the situational context (Bénézech and the Behavioral Analysis Group of the
French National Gendarmerie, 2007; Homant and Kennedy, 1998.

The development of profiles is a probabilistic operation requiring, for its implementation

work, the availability of a large amount of information (Geberth, 1996). In return, a profile
correctly performed can provide a variety of clues regarding, in particular, the age of the criminal,
race, sex, socioeconomic status, residence, mode of transport, level
of education, marital status, work, criminal history, psychiatric history, his
social and sexual development, its military history, its physical characteristics, its
habits, their level of organization, their behaviors pre and post crime and the presence
potential of accomplices (O’Toole, 1999).

As a general rule, when investigators are faced with a crime scene, they will look for
three indicators: the modus operandi (mode of operation), the signature as well as the presence
or the absence of staging. The modus operandi refers to a set of
learned behaviors that the offender develops and repeats in their criminal activities
because these behaviors were successful during the course of his crimes. This concept
is dynamic and malleable and will evolve according to the offender's experiences (Douglas,
Burgess, Burgess and Kessler, 2006), although a relative stability is observed for some
crimes, especially sexual (Sjöstedt, Långström, Sturidsson and Grann, 2004). The signature refers to
criminal behaviors that go beyond the conduct necessary to perpetrate a crime and that
generally defines the personality of the criminal (Douglas et al., 2006). Unlike the
operating mode, the signature will remain stable. The concept of staging is
applied when the criminal deliberately alters the crime scene before the police arrive.
According to Douglas et al. (2006), there are two reasons why a person will use the
staging: in order 1) to divert the investigation from the most likely suspect or 2) to protect the
victim or the victim's family. When the crime is staged, the person responsible is
usually someone who has an association or relationship of any kind with the victim. All

25
these indicators will help to draw a profile of the potential suspect while allowing
investigators to check if the crime they are investigating can be linked to other crimes
similar.

Criminal profiling is currently used within three phases of the process of

criminal justice: the investigation phase, the arrest phase, and the trial phase (Hicks and Sales,
2006). Profiling is used during the investigation phase when traditional methods have
failed. At this stage, profiling is primarily used to link crimes together.
committed in series and in order to identify the physical, psychological, and those
related to the lifestyle of the criminal. Profiling is also used during the investigation phase to
the following reasons: suggest certain pre and post-crime behaviors that the criminal is
likely to occur, assess the possibility that certain crimes evolve into more serious crimes
serious and more violent and suggest proactive tactics aimed at encouraging the criminal to reveal
his identity. During the arrest phase, profiling is used to guide the
research towards certain sectors or certain particular elements or even to predict the
behavior of the criminal during his arrest as well as to suggest techniques
interrogation likely to lead the criminal to make confessions. Finally, during the
trial phase, profiling provides the court with expertise that links various crimes to
a single individual and to link the crime(s) in question to the characteristics of the individual involved.
were established during the development of the profile (Hicks and Sales, 2006). However, the deviations
observed in certain cases of profiling use, for example the Guy Paul Morin case in
Canada (Kaufman, 1998) or the Colin Stagg case in England (Marin, 2003), as well as the
lack of scientific rigor of the methods makes their use during the instruction phase
generally difficult (see section 3.6 on admissibility in court).

There is little information available regarding the use of profiling services. Copson
(1995) indicates that in England, from 1990 to 1994, police services (48 agencies represented
out of 56 in total) used a profiler on 184 occasions. The crimes for which profiling
used are homicides (113), rapes (40), extortions (12), other sexual crimes
(10) arson cases (4), kidnappings (3) and threats (2). The most services
Frequently asked are profiling (116) and assistance in understanding the crime (112).
Demands for profiling services would be on the rise in many countries.
(Copson, 1995; Snook, Eastwood, Gendreau, Goggin et Cullen, 2007), which leads Kocsis
the greatest mystery in criminal profiling
is probably its increase despite the absence of convincing scientific evidence
allowing it to be validated (p. 458).

In Canada, three agencies have a section dedicated to criminal profiling: the Criminal Profiling Section.
special services and behavioral sciences of the RCMP, the Analysis Service of
behavior of the Sûreté du Québec and the Behavioral Sciences Section of the Police
Ontario Provincial Police (PPO) (Marin, 2003). Criminal profiling services are offered without
expenses to the country's police forces by the PPO since 1991. Since then, the Department of Sciences of
behavior handled about 3,150 service requests while the RCMP responded to
approximately 175 requests annually. Of these requests, about 15% aimed at
specifically obtaining the profile of a crime author. For example, requests for
Behavioral profiling with the PPO amounted to 18 in 1996, 33 in 1997, and 35 in 1998.

26
(Van Allen, 2008). The services of these agencies were mainly needed in cases of homicides,
of violence or sexual assaults and child abuse (Lines, 2008).

3.2.3 The use of profiling at the international level

The Working Group on Serial Crime Processing drew up a profile in 2006 of

different profiling approaches for some European countries as well as for the United States
Unis and Canada. We note therefore marked differences between the countries.

In the United States, the use of criminal profiling is widespread at both the federal and state levels.
it is in most states. Its use is however reserved for the most serious crimes in
the aim of facilitating the identification of the author(s). Due to the multiplication of killers in
series starting from the 1970s, the FBI decided to implement a processing system
specific information regarding the murders that took place throughout the territory
American (Marin, 2003), which led to the establishment of the ViCAP program (Violent Criminal)
Apprehension Program). This system allows for the compilation of the precise characteristics of all the
murders committed in all American states and contributed to the arrest of many killers
in series (Marin, 2003). The FBI also has a specialized service dedicated to the study of
criminal behavior, the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime (NCAVC), at
which can be used by all American investigators. This center is composed of
four services: 1) Behavioral Analysis Unit-1
terrorism and threat analysis), 2) Behavioral Analysis Unit-2
behavior - 2 - crimes against adults), 3) Behavioral Analysis Unit-3
behavior - 3 - crimes against children) and 4) Violent Criminal Apprehension Program
(ViCAP). It is worth noting that the concept of profiling at the FBI prioritizes the deductive method from
from crime scene analysis, psychological analysis, and evidence analysis
behavioral data provided by the survey. Furthermore, in the United States as well as in Canada, the
Geographical profiling is used to help investigators target the geographic area.
of choice for the criminal (National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, 2008). Marin
(2003) emphasizes that the small size of several European countries explains that profiling
geographic is little or not used.

In Great Britain, investigators sometimes use behavioral psychologists who

attempt to establish a profile of both the victim and the suspect. The psychological profile of the criminal
is most often developed by several profilers who are experts certified by the subcommittee
of behavioral sciences (association of police officers). In the more specific case of
England, it seems, according to Marin (2003), that police services are quite cautious.
regarding the usefulness of resorting to profiling. Furthermore, Marin (2003) highlights that some
Criticism has risen in England against the abuses that profiling can lead to.
The author cites the case of Collin Stagg, linked to the murder of Rachell Nickell.

In Belgium, profile analysis was introduced in 1996 but really took off in
2001 with the creation of the Behavioral Sciences service of the Federal Judicial Police
GWSC, which employed fifteen people in 2008, including four behavioral analysts.
the mandate of analysts includes profile analysis, support for hearings (interrogation), analysis of

27
risk (threat assessment), research and training. In 2007, this service provided 133 supports
of 17 profile analyses, in 62 files (Godefroid, 2008).

Switzerland, for its part, adopted the ViCLAS system in 2003, which consists of a database
data allowing the collection of psychological profiles and, subsequently, to draw up
psychological profiles of murderers and aggressors.

In the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic, the field of
Criminal profiling appears to be less developed (Working group on the treatment of crimes in
series, 2006). In the Netherlands, profiling does not exist as such, even if some
Information related to criminals will be collected and analyzed, notably through the
ViCLAS program. In Spain, it seems that profiling does not go beyond the confines of
universities and conferences even though Marin (2003) emphasizes the presence of numerous files
automated systems allowing to perform reconciliations within the framework of criminal investigations.
Germany, a certain profiling is nonetheless carried out by the police services that develop
behavioral profiles through mixed teams of police officers and psychologists. The
The German federal structure, however, makes it difficult to quantify the success rate of the
profiling in this country (Marin, 2003). Finally, in Italy, the behavioral analysis service
created by the Ministry of the Interior within the scientific police service (the Unit for Analysis
violent crimes) includes a team of police officers, psychologists, and anthropologists who
contributes to analyzing crime scenes, extrapolating the repetitions, developing
type profiles of the victim and to define the behavioral elements that can help in
search for the criminal. The Czech experience in the field of profiling still seems
limited. However, according to Marin (2003), it appears that the Canadian ViCLAS system is underway
to be gradually established. Its scope should cover homicides
volunteers, the assassinations and significant moral affairs. The feeding of the base of
data would include 1,000 old cases and an annual volume of 700 cases. It seems
there is little information about the profiling methods used in countries other than
those mentioned within this section.

3.3 Theoretical Framework

Crimes that are subject to profiling are usually crimes that are part of a series.
of similar crimes (Cook and Hinman, 1999). To create a reasonably accurate profile
From the offender, investigators will gather several clues from the crime scene.
According to O'Toole (1999), several behavioral characteristics can be extracted from the place.
of the crime: 1) the degree of planning of the crime, 2) the degree of control used by the
offender, 3) the escalation of emotions at the crime scene, 4) the level of risk of the
victim and the offender and 5) the appearance of the crime scene (organized vs disorganized). In
Indeed, the premise of profiling is that the more investigators know about the victim, the more they can...
will know about the offender (O'Toole, 1999).

Several models and typologies guiding the practice of profiling can be found. The
homicides and rapes are the most often analyzed crimes and most models
derive from the analysis of these crimes. Furthermore, [TRANSLATION] 'we characterize the patterns

28
[...] as being devoid of scientific character because, even if they may refer to some
scientific principles in different respects, each of them rests implicitly or explicitly on
an artificial element to determine the profile of a delinquent" (Hicks and Sales 2006, p. 17). The
The following sections present the most well-known typologies, classified according to the crimes they encompass.
allow profiling.

3.3.1 Homicides

[Link] Typology of Douglas, Ressler, Burgess, and Hartman

This first model, which comes from the FBI, distinguishes organized crime scenes from
disorganized crime scenes. According to Davis (1999), an organized crime scene indicates a
planning, a premeditation as well as a conscious effort on the part of the criminal to avoid
getting caught. As for the disorganized crime scene, it indicates actions that are
spontaneous and an assault that is generally frantic. The victim is usually chosen at
chance and the location of the crime is generally where the meeting between the victim took place
and the offender (Davis, 1999). Although several crime scenes may involve both
types, the offender will be classified according to the level of organization or disorganization
predominant judge at the crime scene. From this classification, several conclusions have
summer drawn in relation to the characteristics of the individual (level of intelligence, employment,
social adjustment, etc.) (McGrath, 2000).

[Link] Fesbach Typology

A second model, described by Salfati (2000; Salfati and Canter, 1999; Salfati and Park, 2007) but
Inspired by Fesbach, it dwells on the role that homicide plays for the offender. Thus, the
The model distinguishes two types of aggression, expressive and instrumental, characterized by their goals or
rewards they offer to the offender. Expressive aggression occurs in response to a
anger induced by an insult, a personal attack, humiliation, or failure. The purpose of
this aggression is about making the victim suffer, punishing them. As for the instrumental function, it
comes from a desire for possession or status, for example, acquiring jewelry, money, a
territory or power. For the instrumental offender, murder is not an end in itself,
but can occur if someone intervenes between him and achieving his goal. Attempts to bind
this typology relates to crime scene elements and personality traits of the offender
contain significant methodological shortcomings (e.g. Salfati and Canter, 1999; Salfati and
Park, 2007).

[Link] Holmes and Holmes Typology

Holmes and Holmes propose a typology of serial killers that includes four categories.
according to what motivates the individual: the visionary, the project manager, the hedonist, and the thirsty for
power (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

29
3.3.2 Sexual Crimes

[Link] Typology of Keppel and Walter

A first typology concerning sexual homicide comes from a typology already

existing for rape (Keppel and Walter, 1999). This typology describes the crime according to its function
for the offender. Four types of functions can be highlighted to describe the violation and
the rape followed by a homicide, either power-assertive (motivated by the assertion of power), power-
reassurance (motivated by the reassurance of power), anger-retaliatory (motivated by anger and the
vengeance) as well as anger-excitation(motivated by anger and excitement). The offender
power-assertive (motivated by the assertion of power) commits a power crime where the rape was
planned, but where murder is an unplanned response to an escalation of violence in order to
control the victim. The offender power-reassurance (motivated by the reassurance of power)
also engages in a planned rape where the homicide is not planned. In this type of crime, the
the offender tries to demonstrate his sexual skills through seduction. However,
when the victim does not cooperate with the offender's scenarios and fantasies, a feeling
of failure and panic drives him to commit murder. In the case of the offender
retaliatory (motivated by anger and revenge), rape and homicide were planned. In this
type of crime, motivated by anger, the offender seeks to take revenge on a person by
attacking a symbolic victim. Ultimately, for the offender-excitation (motivated by
anger and excitement), the planned rape and homicide aim for gratification through infliction
of pain and terror to the victim. The prolonged torture of the victim will fuel the
fantasies of the killer and will temporarily satisfy his need for domination and control
(Keppel and Walter, 1999).

[Link] Typology of Hazelwood and Warren

This typology comes from Hazelwood and Warren (2000) and describes the offender as being
impulsive or ritualistic in their actions. According to the authors, the impulsive offender is a type
sexual offender trend, which generally has little success in avoiding identification and
apprehension. In fact, this type of criminal acts impulsively, takes few or no measures in order to
to protect one's identity and is apparently unaware of the risks associated with committing
a crime. As for the ritualistic offender, he is much less common and unlike
the impulsive one, he is very successful in his actions and becomes very difficult to identify and
apprehend. This type of criminal dedicates a lot of time and effort to planning and rehearsing.
his criminal actions. The validity of this typology has notably received support from the study of
Warren, Reboussin, Hazelwood, and Wright (1991).

[Link] Typology of Beauregard and Rossmo

In a series of articles, Beauregard and Rossmo (Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc and
Allaire, 2007; Beauregard and Rossmo, 2007; Beauregard, Rossmo and Proulx, 2007 attempted
to elucidate the hunting scenarios of serial sexual aggressors. These scenarios were made up of
based on four victim search methods and three attack methods:

• Methods of searching for victims:

30
 1. Hunter: specifically looking for a victim from their location
residence
2. Poacher: specifically seeks a victim from a location
activity other than his place of residence or travels to another city during the
research process
3. Troller (trolling fisherman): encounters a victim opportunistically during
that he engages in non-predatory activities;
4. Trapper: holds a certain position, has a certain occupation or creates
a situation that allows him to meet potential victims in the territory that he
covers in the context of this occupation.

• Attack methods:
1. Raptor: attacks a victim as soon as it comes into contact with it;
2. Stalker: first follows the victim before making contact with her and
to attack it;
3. Ambusher: attacks its prey only when it has been lured into a
place where the aggressor can exercise their control.

Empirical studies based on this typology have identified three scenarios guiding
a total of five variants, based on the observed combinations of research methods and
of attack (Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc and Allaire, 2007; Beauregard and Rossmo, 2007;
Beauregard, Rossmo and Proulx, 2007:

Coercion scenario
1.1 With intrusion
1.2 Outside
2. Manipulation scenario
2.1 By sophistication (trick)
2.2 By infiltration
3. Scenario without persuasion: direct action.

[Link] Typology of Blanchette, St-Yves and Proulx

Blanchette, St-Yves and Proulx (2007), for their part, propose a typology of the rapist and the
pedophile. In both cases, they fall into three types: the festive, the organized, and the isolated. Their search
empirical suggests the following characteristics :

Typology of the rapist

The festive rapist:

Resembles the delinquent in general: antisocial;
Interpersonal relationships marked by hostility, lack of empathy and the
satisfaction of immediate needs;
Open to influences advocating the domination of women by men;
-Regular contact with immediate family (87%), good personal hygiene (82%),
single (82.2%), consumes alcohol regularly (82.6%) and has at least one friend
on time (95.7%);

31
 Alcohol consumption before the offense (78.3%), coercive approach to committing it.
offense (87%) and does not masturbate the victim (0%).

2. The Organized Rapist:

Automobile in excellent condition (85.7%), good personal hygiene (100%), lives
with someone (87.5%), owner of their housing (75%), owner of a vehicle
automobile (87.5%) is not single (0%) and does not regularly go to bars
erotic (0%);
Do not consume pornographic material before the offense (0%), premeditation.
(87.5%), no anal penetration (0%), no cunnilingus (0%) or masturbation of the
victim (0%), coercive approach to commit the offense (87.5%), does not mutilate the
victim (0%).

The isolated rapist:

Non-existent social life.
-Does not frequent restaurants (0%), vehicle in excellent condition (75%)
good personal hygiene (100%), not owning their home (0%), does not socialize
not in bars (0%), single (83.3%), employed (83.3%), at least one close friend
(83.3%);
Do not consume pornographic material before the offense (0%), premeditation
(83.3%), vaginal penetration (100%) but not anal (0%), requests oral sex
(83.3%), coercive approach (100%), does not mutilate (0%), does not assault victims
disabled (0%), does not come from a poor or dysfunctional background (0%), no
deviant sexual fantasies before the offense (0%), forces the victim to commit acts
sexual (83.3%) and touching of genital parts (83.3%).

Typology of the pedophile

The festive pedophile:

Resembles the delinquent in general: antisocial;
-Regular contact with immediate family (85.2%), practices a sport (79%), good
personal hygiene (82.8%), lives with someone (75.9%), regularly consumes
alcohol (86.2%) and drugs (82.8%);
Family member of the victim (75.9%);

2. The organized pedophile:

-Regular contact with immediate family (88.2%), good personal hygiene (76.5%)
live with someone (88.2%), owner of their home (100%), owner of a
motor vehicle (100%);
Do not consume medications/solvents before the offense (0%), the victim is a
intimate knowledge (76.5%), family member of the victim (88.2%), premeditation
(94.1%), the victim is not under the influence of drugs or alcohol (0%).

3. The isolated pedophile

Non-existent social life;
-Regular contact with immediate family (90.5%), single (90.9%);
Do not consume drugs/solvents before the crime (0%), premeditation (90.9%).

32
[Link] Fortin and Roy Typology

Fortin and Roy (2007), for their part, are interested in consumers and producers of
cyberpedophilia. They denote three types of users:

1. Recreational (satisfaction of sexual curiosity);

2. The sexually compulsive (unconventional sexual behaviors: consumer
of pornography, sexual relations with multiple partners, use of the services of prostitutes, etc.
3. The at-risk user (no history of compulsive sexuality, but their habits in
line has repercussions on his life: depressive or reactive).

These authors also identify four types of collectors:

1. The secret (commercial sources, confidential, no history);

The isolate (sexual aggressor);
3. The familial (seeks validation of its behavior);
4. The salesperson (seeks profit, also aggressive).

[Link] Typology of Holmes and Holmes

Holmes and Holmes essentially take up the typology of Keppel and Walter (1999), at
a few nuances away: 1) Power reassurance (motivated by the reassurance of power), 2) anger
retaliation (motivated by anger and revenge), 3) exploitive anger (motivated by anger and
the exploitation) and 4) sadistic (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

Furthermore, they also offer a typology of child abusers, which they divide into
situational offenders (regressed pedophile; morally indiscriminate
(without any morals); sexually indiscriminate (without sexual preference); naive / inadequate
(naive, maladapted) and preferential pedophiles (sadistic pedophile; seductive)
molester (charmer) or fixated molester (obsessive) (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

3.3.3 Arson

[Link] Rider Typology

For Rider, the arsonist may be motivated by jealousy, the need for recognition, the
search for thrills or compulsion (pyromania) (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

[Link] Typology of Douglas, Burgess, Burgess, and Ressler

Douglas, Burgess, Burgess and Ressler (2006) present a range of

motivations à la fois plus large et plus précis que celui de Rider : 1) la vengeance, 2) l’excitation
(strong sensations, attention, recognition or sexual excitement), 3) vandalism, 4) the
dissimulation of a crime and 5) profit. Note that Holmes and Holmes also submit a

33
typology of the arsonist, which is actually a collage of those of Rider as well as Douglas,
Burgess, Burgess and Ressler (Hicks and Sales, 2006).

[Link] Typology of Fritzon, Canter and Wilton

The article by Fritzon, Canter and Wilton (2001) discusses a classification system based on four
action models (expressive, integrative, conservative, and adaptive). The adaptive mode concerns
rather the cases of vandalism where the person takes advantage of the opportunity to commit it
crime. The target is less important than the desire to modify it. The expressive mode concerns the
external manifestation of an internal process. This form of pyromania suggests that the targets
probable are those that will allow the individual to receive attention (for example a
hospital, a large building, etc.). As for the integrative mode, it refers to the act of putting the
fire to oneself or to surrounding objects in what appears to be a suicide. This act
results from a state of distress of the person and is directed towards herself. Ultimately, the mode
Conservatism generally stems from the need to take revenge on someone or something.

34
Terrorism

[Link] Typology of Hacker

Hacker is the first to propose a typology of the terrorist. He distinguishes three types: 1) the
militant (crusader), ideologically motivated and generally responsible for recruitment and the
planning; 2) the criminal, a violent individual searching for a pretext, who commits his
work without being ideologically committed and 3) the madman, mentally vulnerable or disturbed, attracted
by philosophical certainty (Miller, 2006).

[Link] Typology of Strentz

Strentz's typology also includes three categories: 1) the leader, egocentric,

paranoid and charismatic; 2) the activist, antisocial or psychopath, sometimes a former inmate or
mercenary, not really ideologically committed and 3) the idealist, devoted to building
of a "better world," desperate and dependent (Miller, 2006). This typology has
certain similarities with that of Hacker.

[Link] Typology of American Secret Services

The American secret services, for their part, distinguish between five types of terrorists: 1) the
terrorist on a crusade, ideologically motivated by his political or religious beliefs; 2) the
ultraconservative political terrorist, who believes in individual rights against a regime seen as
repressive, militates in a quasi-military, ultra-conservative, authoritarian, far-right organization
right; 3) the political anarchist, an extreme left activist who sees the government as
racist, elitist, and economically oppressive; 4) the religious terrorist, who answers to no one
other than God and who kills in his name and 5) the criminal terrorist, more opportunist than idealist
and who acts for his own profit (Miller, 2006).

[Link] Miller's Typology

Finally, Miller (2006) proposes his own typology, which associates the type of terrorist with
caractéristiques psychopathologiques : 1) le leader (narcissisme et paranoïa), 2) le croyant
(antisocial et personnalité limite), 3) le soldat (évitement et dépendance) et 4) le danger public
(histrionic and schizoid).

There are still many other typologies and theoretical approaches, including the approach
Turco's psychoanalytic approach (focused on narcissistic disorders and borderline personality) the approach
inductive from Turvey and the psychodynamic model of Canter (Hicks and Sales, 2006). Furthermore,
Levi-Minzi and Shields (2007) as well as Salfati, James and Ferguson (2008) attempted to develop a
profile of the serial prostitute killer.

35
3.4 Critique of existing models

Hicks and Sales (2006) conducted a systematic critique of the theoretical models supposed to
guide the practice of behavioral profiling. These authors point out the absence of
standards and empirical studies aimed at evaluating effectiveness, reliability, validity and
the usefulness of models and typologies. Furthermore, they denote a certain confusion attributable to
an often ambiguous terminology that generally varies from one model to another. The models
they themselves marry general approaches, typologies, and taxonomies, sometimes
intrinsically incoherent or otherwise showing significant overlaps between categories.
Finally, significant methodological gaps often cast doubt on the validity.
even studies claiming to support these models.

It therefore seems that despite the claims of some authors, including Canter, these
models cannot claim to be "scientific". Generally speaking, it is also agreed that
that the practice of profiling currently relies on intuition and professional experience
the profiler. The procedures for using models, for decision-making based on data
ambiguities and profile development remain quite unclear. Finally, these approaches
do not all culminate in observable characteristics that could help investigators.

In summary, Hicks and Sales (2006) note that [TRANSLATION] 'none of the models has
provide evidence that profiling, as it is currently practiced, has any value
of investigation" (p. 65). Few of these models, moreover, have any empirical support whatsoever.
so be it.

3.5 Empirical Support

From the outset, it seems pertinent to specify that it is '...difficult to measure the effectiveness of
criminal profiling in solving crimes. Most of the time, the success of an investigation
rests on a set of factors" (Latour, Van Allen, Lépine and Nezan 2007, p. 529). Furthermore,
as noted by Hicks and Sales (2006), [TRANSLATION] " […] because the profilers of
The F.B.I. is expressly trained not to put profiles in writing, the extent to which
the latter can also be examined systematically or scientifically
"limited" (p. 121). The conduct of rigorous empirical studies that can support or refute
The effectiveness of profiling proves to be a challenge.

3.5.1 General Evaluations

One of the only large-scale studies directly focusing on the effectiveness of profiling is that
by Copson (1995), conducted in England. However, this study is nearly fifteen years old and has been
carried out even as Canter was establishing his program of Investigative Psychology
of the investigation) in Liverpool. Copson first counts four previous studies. The one conducted by
Douglas in 1981 within the FBI (unpublished) reveals that profiling would have helped to target
the investigation in 77% of cases where the culprit has been identified and could have allowed for their identification in

36
15 cases (8%). FBI investigators estimated that profiling had saved
the equivalent of 594 days for a full-time investigator and supported the maintenance of the service
unanimously.

In 1992, Britton conducted similar research in England with the Home Office.
published). Copson (1995) notes that, using the contribution as a criterion of effectiveness
profiling at the arrest of suspects, [TRANSLATION] "based on this strict criterion, and
Contrary to popular belief, few elements supported the fact that the profiles
were accurate or that they had contributed to arrests" (p. 6). Nevertheless, profiling was
deemed viable and continued in England.

The same year, a student (Goldblatt) was writing a thesis (unpublished) on the program of
profiling of David Canter at the University of Surrey (forerunner of that of Liverpool). According to the
information provided by Canter himself, on 57 profiles, a suspect had been accused in " to
less twelve cases", but it was difficult to assess the exact contribution of the profile. The analysis
of the twelve resolved cases suggested that out of 114 pieces of information included in the profiles, 72% were
correct, 19% incorrect, and 9% indeterminate. Notably, in two cases, the profile had been
produced after the arrest of the suspect. Nevertheless, the program was considered a success.

Finally, the Dutch Consumer Satisfaction Survey was conducted by Jackson and his colleagues in 1993.
at the Scientific Research Advisory Unit in Holland. This survey concerned twenty cases spread out
over a period of two years. Although the feedback received from the profilers cannot constitute a profile
In six cases, a majority of detectives found it satisfactory. Copson (1995)
concludes from the examination of these four surveys that [TRANSLATION] "the common denominator of
four previous studies reside in the fact that they all essentially rely on the point
from investigators who sought advice on profiling as part of
ongoing investigations. […] None of these four studies can, however, be considered as
being conclusive" (p. 7).

Copson then presents the results of his own survey, conducted in England and involving
48 police forces out of 56 and 184 cases of profiling. He notes that although the opinion of the profilers
only helped solve a criminal case in only 14.1% of cases, 82.6% of
Investigators assert that profiling has proven useful at the operational level. According to the
respondents, profiling would have led to the identification of the offender in only 2.7% of cases.
it would have allowed for a better understanding of the crime or the criminal in 60.9% of cases, it
would have confirmed the investigator's judgment in 51.6% of cases and would have allowed for structuring
the interrogation in 5.4% of cases. In 2.3% of cases, profiling would have been used for other purposes
while he would have been useless 17.4% of the time.

This research has shown that the main variable affecting investigators' perception regarding
the utility of profiling was the identity of the profiler themselves, which leads Copson (1995) to say that he
It seems that at this stage of profiling development in Great Britain,
the approaches in this area are so idiosyncratic that they are inseparable from the person
"the profiler" (p. 29). Moreover, it seems that few investigators acted directly based on
Based on the feedback received from the profilers. Considering the little contribution of profiling to identifying the culprits,
Copson (1995) concludes that it would not really add value to the methods.
of conventional investigations: [TRANSLATION] "If […] profiling is to be considered as being

37
valid according to its own terms, then its success should depend on providing information
the agents regarding the type of person who committed the offense under study, so that the
the conduct of the investigation and its result could be influenced by opinions based on these
deductions. Respondents to this study believe that profiling has not been successful in terms of
concerning these conditions" (p. 31).

More recently, Snook, Eastwood, Gendreau, Goggin, and Cullen (2007) conducted a meta-
analysis of empirical research on the effectiveness of profiling. Only four studies
could be thus analyzed and, if the profilers appear to have done marginally better than the
other groups, the authors conclude that [TRANSLATION] "the evidence that arises from this
Research confirms the perceptions of those who have determined that the field of profiling
criminal relies on unconvincing standards of proof and that the results of these profilers
are decidedly not better than those of other groups when predicting the
characteristics of an unknown criminal" (p. 448). However, two important points must be
specifically. First, the profilers who participated in the analyzed studies were profilers
self-proclaimed, in the sense that they did not necessarily have formal training in the
domain and were not members of the ICIAF. Then, the meta-analysis mainly focused on a large
measure on the work of Richard Kocsis and his team, work that has been severely criticized
due to significant methodological deficiencies.

Bennell, Jones, Taylor, and Snook (2006) conducted an analysis of Kocsis's work and
expressed numerous concerns, particularly regarding the subjectivity of the measures used
and to the grouping of several groups, including 'mediums' (psychics), into one, which served
of the control group. They note that there was no significant difference separating the performance
self-proclaimed profilers from other groups of professionals taken individually. Furthermore,
if Kocsis compares the accuracy of profiles produced by different groups of individuals, he does not
does not dwell on the accuracy of the profile itself. Thus, although profilers sometimes demonstrate
better results than the normative comparison groups, the absolute accuracy of
the profile often turns out to be unimpressive. Finally, Bennell, Jones, Taylor, and Snook (2006) state
note the excessively small size of the profiler samples (from 3 people to 11 in
combining all studies), which makes any statistical analysis questionable, and the fact that the
proposed tasks to evaluate the performance of the profilers do not correspond to the context of
profiling practice in police environments. Kocsis (2006) responded to these criticisms, but
unconvincing way.

3.5.2 Homicides

Kocsis, Middledorp, and Try (2005) attempted to compare the capabilities of various groups, including one
group of five self-proclaimed profilers, to provide a profile in a murder case. However, the
the methodology used ensures that the credibility of the obtained results is low. This article
does not provide any serious support for the hypothesis of the effectiveness of profiling in cases
of homicide.

38
3.5.3 Sexual assaults

In their study, Goodwill and Alison (2007) focus on predicting the age of the aggressor.
starting from the age of the victim in cases of rapes by a stranger. The relationship between the age of
protagonists would be moderated by the planning and aggression demonstrated in the perpetration
...in cases where it is possible to demonstrate that there
the planning by the EU as well as excessive aggression from the aggressor, then the age of this
the last can be predicted based on that of the victim with a margin of less than three years
(p. 833). However, in the absence of any evidence suggesting the existence of a process of
selection and targeting of the victim as well as planning of the crime, the prediction of the age of
the attacker would be extremely difficult.

Some researchers promote the use of databases as well as software

allowing the association of already registered criminals with new crime scenes based on
relative similarities in the modus operandi (way of functioning) or to the signature. Yokota,
Fujita, Watanabe, Yoshimoto, and Wachi (2007) applied such software to profiling.
sexual aggressors in Japan. This approach made it possible to directly identify the aggressor.
Times out of 81, meaning that the aggressor was ranked first among potential suspects 29.6%
of time. For the entire experience, the median rank where the perpetrator was found was the
fourth rank. However, by limiting candidates to those living in the prefecture where the crime
had been committed, the success rate (guilty ranked first) was 55.6%. This
the approach thus proves promising in the case of crimes committed by repeat offenders and supports
the hypothesis of a certain behavioral consistency when an individual commits multiple
crimes. The success of such a method, however, depends on the size and quality of the database.
data.

3.5.4 Criminal Fires

In one of his articles, Kocsis (2004) tries to see if there is a difference in abilities.
profiling among several groups for a series of fires. However, the methodology is
doubtful and the results cannot be considered credible. In short, the results
demonstrate, to a small extent, that self-proclaimed profilers tend to have
better results than people who do not practice profiling, but these results are not
not significantly higher compared to an individually taken group, for example from
students in science. Furthermore, in addition to homicides, the study by Kocsis, Middledorp, and Try
(2005) also included a profiling task concerning an arson case.
the concerns stated above remain and support for the effectiveness of profiling proves to be
also questionable in cases of arson.

3.5.5 Burglaries

Oatley, Ewart and Zeleznikow (2006) applied computer methods based on a large
database profiling burglars based on the characteristics of the scenes of

39
crimes. A first approach, focused on association and classification rules as well as
decision trees did not yield the expected results: [TRANSLATION] "Technologies
data extraction of association and classification rules and decision trees
did not allow for the generation of useful information from a practical point of view. The rules
the associations that we have drawn from were of poor quality, either because they
indicated no significant links, either because the generated links were too complex to
determine by using this method" (p. 73). On the other hand, by associating new
crimes with spatiotemporal and behavioral data, the pairing between crime and the
The criminal turned out to be correct 24% of the time. In 59% of the trials, the culprit was among the
the ten most likely suspects identified by the software, 77% among the 30 most likely and 94%
among the top fifty. These researchers also tried to identify indicators
allowing to predict whether a crime scene would be revisited by the burglar within the same
year. It seems that the research method, the type of stolen property, the method of entry
and the use of a deception would allow to make this distinction, but the authors do not specify
the success rate.

3.6 Admissibility before the courts

3.6.1 Eligibility Criteria

The criteria for the admissibility of expert testimony in court, including those related to
new techniques or scientific theories demonstrate an evolution since the beginning of the 20the
century. These are the criteria that guide the judges who must decide on the admissibility of
testimonies calling on different aspects of criminal profiling.

In the United States, several states still rely on the decision made in the context of Frye v. US.
(1923), where the District of Columbia Court considered the admissibility of evidence by
polygraph. The court excluded this evidence and ruled that:

It is difficult to determine when a theory or a discovery

scientist crosses the line between the stage of experimentation and that of
demonstration. Somewhere in this uncertain area, the probative force of this
theory must be recognized and, even if the courts are inclined to accept the
experimental testimony inferred from a scientific discovery or theory
recognized, the element from which the deduction is made must be sufficiently
established, so that it benefits from general recognition in the field
particular to which he belongs.

Thus, following Frye, the admissibility criterion became the acceptance of the technique or the
theory in question by the scientific community from the relevant discipline. However,
several criticisms have been made regarding this decision, particularly concerning the fact that the
simple acceptance by the scientific community may not have been a criterion
strict enough (as a judge noted, it has already been generally accepted that the land
was flat).

40
Since 1993, several U.S. states have adopted the standards set forth by the Court.
Supreme Court of the United States in Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals (1993), which assumes
what:

1. The theory is testable and has been tested;

The theory has been the subject of peer evaluations;
3. The theory is reliable and its error rate is known;
The theory is generally accepted by the scientific community.

The publication of results in peer-reviewed journals would then provide a certain guarantee that
the theory is not completely wrong. Moreover, if perfect reliability is not required, it
returns to the court to judge the acceptable threshold. To do this, the probability of error of the theory or
The proposed technique must be known and presented in class.

In Canada, the admissibility of expert testimony primarily depends on four criteria established by
the Supreme Court of Canada in R. v. Mohan (1994):

1. Relevance (including the link to the case heard and scientific validity);
2. The necessity (the testimony is necessary for the judge or the jurors to be able to
understand all the elements of evidence);
3. The absence of other exclusion rules;
4. The qualifications of the expert.

The Ontario Court of Appeal, in R. v. Clark (2004), adopts similar criteria:

1. The necessity (the testimony exceeds the normal knowledge and experiences of the juror)
average);
2. Reliability (the testimony is grounded in facts and is not limited to speculation);
3. The testimony is not excessively impressive (to prevent the jury from being too influenced by it)
gives more weight than is appropriate, which could risk transforming the trial by
the peers in a debate of experts).

The criteria for scientific validity mentioned in Mohan have been specified following
from the decision of the Supreme Court of Canada in R. v. J.-L. J. (2000), which summarizes
essentially the same standards as those adopted in the United States following Daubert (see
higher).

3.6.2 Profiling before the courts

The variety of tasks performed by profilers is reflected in the type of evidence or

testimonies they are called to present in court. The position of the courts seems to depend
partly of the type of evidence proposed.

41
In Canada, since Mohan, few testimonies related to profiling seem admissible.
In general, a distinction should be made between two types of expertise: 1) analyses
crime scenes and 2) behavioral analyses.

[Link] Crime Scene Analyses

The analysis of crime scenes includes inferences made based on the observation of the state of
the crime scene and the victim. It generally involves reconstructing the course of the crime
and sometimes to assess whether the crime scene has been deliberately altered to initiate the investigation into
a false lead (staging - mise en scène).

In R. v. Ranger (2003), it was noted by the Ontario Court of Appeal, regarding the
testimony that a crime scene had been thus altered, that:

As raised by the Crown prosecutor during the trial, the fact that the
places could have been arranged to make it believe that the house had
being burglarized constitutes a piece of circumstantial evidence that may lead us
shed light on the author's mobile and, consequently, on their identity. One does not
raised no question regarding the relevance of this aspect of expert evidence.
Similarly, no question has really been raised about the reliability of
the evidence on this specific point. The reliability of any opinion according to which the
crime scenes would be arranged primarily based on the experience of the
witness with the break-in introduction scenes (p. 14).

This view was also upheld by the Ontario Court of Appeal in R. v. Clark.
(2004), while the reconstruction of a crime's sequence by an appropriate expert
qualified and the demonstration that the crime scene had been the subject of staging (admitted as evidence
in this particular case) have been qualified as potentially admissible. This notice is also
shared in the United States (see notably US v. Meeks, 1992).

The evolution of the Klymchuk case (2005, 2008) possibly indicates a tightening at the level
on the admissibility of this type of evidence in Canada. In 2005, the decision of the Court of Appeal of
Ontario, relying on both Ranger and Clark, mentions the 'established reliability' of the
evidence based on observation and reconstruction of crime scenes. On the other hand, as the
the court ruled that the expert's testimony had largely exceeded this domain, it had been
declared inadmissible. In 2008, the Superior Court of Ontario deemed inadmissible the
testimony from another expert regarding the fact that the crime scene had been altered, and this on the
based on two arguments: 1) the expert presented by the Crown had participated in the investigation
original and developed a profile of the person who committed the crime; it was concluded that it would be
impossible to completely detach from this mode of reasoning if it had to be limited to
observations made at the crime scene to support his testimony and 2) the court could not be
convinced that the necessity criterion stated in Clark was met. For her, the description of
the crime scene and its comparison with crime scenes that usually correspond to a
burglaries could be carried out by the police officers who conducted the investigation, which would be sufficient for the
jury to draw the necessary conclusions. In other words, the required knowledge

42
to understand the facts presented in evidence were not beyond those possessed
normally the average juror, and thus, the use of an expert was not necessary.

[Link] Behavioral analyses

In the perspective proposed by Ormerod (1996), it is considered that the analysis of the crime scene
aims to determine what happened (the 'what'), while behavioral analysis, or what
the courts consider criminal profiling as an attempt to identify the motive behind the crime
"why") or to outline a profile of the person likely to have committed it (the "who") – or
of not having committed it, according to the exception rule stated in Mohan (which stipulates that
when a crime or its perpetrator has particularly distinctive characteristics, a
an expert can testify that the defendant does not possess these characteristics). The analysis
behavioral includes, among other things, the attribution of certain crimes to the same person
based on the examination of the elements of the crime that constitute the modus operandi
functioning) or the signature of the criminal (linkage analysis - link analysis).

In Canada, to our knowledge, this type of testimony has always been deemed inadmissible, as
the Ontario Court of Appeal explained in Ranger:

translatedText
[...] the attempts to produce in evidence the opinion of an expert in order to
determine for what reason an offense was committed in a certain way
particular, and more specifically, who is the person most likely to have it
committed, namely the evidence elements of the kind that I have designated more
particularly as criminal profiling generally does not
achieved a lot of success, whether in this area of expertise or
elsewhere (p. 19).

Such testimonies have notably been deemed inadmissible by the Supreme Court of Canada (in
MohanetJ.-L. J.), the Ontario Court of Appeal (in Ranger, Clark and Klymchuk), the Court
Ontario Superior Court (in Klymchuk) and the Superior Court of Quebec (in R. v. Croteau,
In DansRanger, the Ontario Court of Appeal explains that:

[TRANSLATION]
Criminal profiling is a new field of scientific evidence, whose
reliability was not demonstrated during the trial. On the contrary, it seems, according to
the limited testimony of [the expert] regarding the possibility of verifying opinions
expressed in his field or in his work, that his opinions consist of
nothing more than informed assumptions. In this respect, his testimony based on
criminal profiling was unacceptable (p. 22).

This is currently the unanimous position of the Canadian courts regarding the aspects
behavioral profiling, which also corresponds to our literature review
scientific: the scientific validity of criminal profiling is still not established in a way
satisfactory that would allow him to meet the requirements established in Mohanet J.-L. J.

43
Béliveau and Vauclair (2007) also address two elements that are related to profiling.
behavioral: the propensity and evidence of similar facts. The use of testimony
an expert to establish the propensity of an accused to commit a crime is generally
inadmissible

...in the Morin decision, it was ruled that a psychiatrist cannot testify about the
the propensity of the accused to commit the crime, this type of evidence being inadmissible
furthermore. Similarly, the defendant cannot have an expert heard to
demonstrate that, given his mental state, he would be incapable of committing the crime
reproached. This would constitute proof of good reputation, which is made
usually by people who testify to the opinion of the members of the
community and by the accused who can invoke acts of good conduct (p. 373).

However, an expert could testify in the case where the accused shares with the author of the crime.
distinctive traits so unusual that they would act as a signature. By extension, according to the
exception rule of Mohan, when a crime or its author has characteristics
distinctives, an expert can testify that the accused does not possess the characteristics
corresponding (Béliveau and Vauclair, 2007). However, these characteristics must prove to be
quite particular and not just 'abnormal'.

In the case of the proof of similar facts, if it is relevant in principle, it will be

generally inadmissible because its prejudicial effect often outweighs its value
proof (Béliveau and Vauclair, 2007). This type of evidence is primarily based on
the improbability of a coincidence regarding elements of a crime that are sufficiently distinctive
to link the accused: "...when this evidence aims to prove the identity of the author of the crime, it
there must be a high degree of similarity between the acts in order to demonstrate that the accused is not
the type of person to have committed the crime, but rather the person who actually committed it
231, our emphasis).

In the United States, however, the situation differs slightly, especially due to the differences in
eligibility criteria between states. It is clear that racial profiling does not meet the
Daubert requirements, nor even those of Frye, and that when these criteria are applied, the
testimonies based on the behavioral aspect of profiling are considered inadmissible. It is the
such as judgments from the Superior Court (State v. Fortin, 1999) and the Supreme Court
(State v. Cavallo, 1982) from New Jersey, from the Court of Appeals of Ohio (State v. Lowe, 1991; State
v. Roquemore, 1993) and of the Tennessee Court of Appeals (State v. Stevens, 2001). Moreover, in
the cases where experts are called to testify, based on psychometric tests or
results of a penile plethysmography, the concordance or not of the personality of a
accused with the "typical" profile of a pedophile (as was the case in Mohanau Canada),
Peters and Murphy (1992) observe that except for California, all American courts
who have looked into this issue deemed the testimony inadmissible. The objections
The raised issues are of five kinds: 1) the practice is not reliable enough at the level
scientific, 2) the testimony would not be relevant as it does not constitute a value
added to the rest of the evidence, 3) the risk of usurping the jury's role in deciding on
the verdict of innocence or guilt is too great, 4) the risk of serious harm outweighs the
the probative value of the testimony and 5) the reputation of the accused can be established without resorting to
expert testimony.

44
On the other hand, in certain cases, it is considered that the criteria adopted in Frye or Daubert do not
do not apply to the testimonies of profilers. For example, in Simmons v. State (2000), the
The Alabama Court of Appeals ruled that the deduction of the motive based on the examination of a scene of
crime constituted a field of specialized knowledge that was not
covered by Frye. It is then argued that:

The question of whether the perpetrator received sexual favors from their victim
whether he was committing the offense was a crucial question in this case, and the
The testimony of [FBI expert] Neer was conclusive on this issue. Some
Inferences could be drawn from the physical evidence presented at the scene.
of the crime (p. 16).

Because this testimony was not subject to the Frye criteria, it did not have to be demonstrated.
that the inference method used (to deduce from the examination of the crime scene and from
victim that the criminal had committed this crime first to satisfy a sexual desire
was widely accepted by the scientific community. The Court also mentions that the
The testimony of Agent Neer does not, in his view, constitute a case of profiling, which is then limited to
the attempt to apply the general characteristics of serial killers to a given individual. It is
it is clear that this type of testimony is detrimental and has little probative value. In light of
in other cases studied, this decision seems exceptional to us in terms of the margin of maneuver
granted to the expert and to the nature of the testimony admitted as evidence.

In two other cases, the Supreme Court of Delaware (Pennell v. State, 1991) and the Supreme Court
from Louisiana (State v. Code, 1993) accepted in evidence an analysis of the modus operandi
of operation) and of the signature linking a series of homicides. Again here, the application of
criteria established in Frye have been explicitly avoided:

TRANSLATION
Agent Douglas [from the FBI] […] provided an expert opinion based on his
knowledge and experience in the field of crime analysis.
The Court ruled that when an expert's opinion is solely based on their
knowledge and his experience, the Fryene criterion does not apply
(Pennell v. State, 1991, p. 7).

Note that the definition of profiling adopted in Pennel is the same as the one that will be
held back later in Simmons (see above).

Elsewhere in the world, if France acknowledges that certain expertise could potentially be
admissible, the reaction of the courts would currently be characterized by a certain mistrust,
as evidenced by at least two cassations of judgment following the admission of
testimonies related to profiling (Marin, 2003). In England, Copson noted in 1995
... it is perfectly clear that the introduction of testimonies related to ...
profiling before British courts poses significant and potentially serious difficulties
insurmountable [...] " (p. 27). Ormerod (1996) added in 1996 that there was then no case
known admission of psychological profiles as evidence in England and Wales. After

45
examining the legal implications of criminal profiling, he concluded that [TRANSLATION] "the
The prejudice associated with a profile will almost in all cases be greater than the probative value of such.
"opinion" (p. 877). Finally, Woskett, Coyle, and Lincoln (2007) state that no relevant testimony
criminal profiling has not yet been introduced in Australia and that Australian lawyers in
would generally have a largely negative opinion.

3.6.3 Implications

It follows from the eligibility criteria outlined above and the state of the case law
Canadian that, for criminal profiling to effectively contribute to the phase
of instruction, the research must necessarily establish its scientific validity in order to satisfy
MohanetJ.-L. J. This entails 1) the development of theories capable of generating hypotheses
testable; 2) to submit these hypotheses to the test of facts in the context of research
empirical; 3) to submit the results of this research to the examination of the community
scientific by publishing them in peer-reviewed journals; 4) ensuring the replication of these results
in order to establish, following a meta-analysis, the reliability and margin of error of the predictions
suggested by the theory and 5) the eventual recognition of the validity of the theory by the
scientific community.

This is not a trivial matter and it will take years of concerted efforts before coming to this.
point, and this, only if there is indeed a way to make criminal profiling a science.

46
3.7 Conclusions
3.7.1 Summary

The logical conclusion from the analyzed research corpus does not allow us to conclude that the
behavioral profiling works systematically. However, anecdotal evidence
existing with regard to profiling can work: we just have to think of Brussels and the case
duMad Bomber.

Literature is full of a wealth of approaches and typologies but, as do

Hicks and Sales (2006) specifically noted that these models mostly suffer from the lack of
theoretical bases and empirical validations that can confirm and explain the links between the
elements of the crime scene and the personality and daily behaviors of the
offenders. For these reasons, none of the proposed models can be considered as
"scientific" in the strict sense of the term, which the courts have confirmed repeatedly
Moreover. Finally, several models fail to provide investigators with characteristics.
operational qualifying potential suspects, so that the contribution to the investigation work
is often limited. However, there are certain satisfactory typologies in this regard (by
for example, the organized / disorganized dichotomy of Douglas et al., 2006).

At the empirical level, few studies meet the rigor criteria required of research.
credible scientist: for example, Gray, Watt, Hassan, and MacCulloch (2003) point out
the regular absence of control group. Moreover, many studies, including those by Kocsis,
cannot apply to the Canadian or American context simply because they appeal to
self-proclaimed profilers. Even if they were sufficiently rigorous, they could not
reveal nothing about the performance of the profilers from the ICIAF training program.
So, if we believe Copson's data (1995), profiling would not lead to arrest.
of offenders between 3% (England) and 8% (FBI) of the time. However, this data is from nearly
fifteen years and were accumulated while the training programs of the ICIAF as well as
Canter was only in its early days and had not yet produced its first profilers.
It is very likely that the situation has evolved considerably since then.

In summary, we believe, based on the published state of research, that it is

It is possible that profiling can contribute to police investigations, but it is still an art.
rather than a science. It has not yet been demonstrated, in our opinion, that profiling can
to provide conclusive results systematically. The use of databases for
Identifying repeat offenders seems particularly promising to us.
We also note that the practice of criminal profiling in Canada seems
reasonably structured: the selection and training program of the ICIAF should be in
measures to keep the practice of profiling safe from charlatans. We are however
I believe that profiling methods should be formalized, that performance criteria
should be formulated and that empirical research should be undertaken in order to
to measure the actual effectiveness of criminal profiling in Canada.

47
3.7.2 Limits

Several limitations exist in the research on behavioral profiling. First, each

the study contains a set of variables specific to the researcher's orientation and there are few
overlaps between these variables. Furthermore, due to the strong competition that exists between
There are few exchanges of techniques among people who qualify themselves as profiling experts, so
that the development of this discipline is progressing very slowly despite the growing interest of
researchers. According to Muller (2000), "as long as the FBI has a ...
monopoly on profiling (what it has in the majority of Western states at
the exception of Great Britain) and that he refuses to communicate any information, he will be
very difficult to prove that it was worth it" (p. 260). We can adhere to this
position since, if we have benefited from a valuable collaboration from the ICIAF and
The PPO, the FBI told us that it does not share any internal information.

Moreover, there are several studies on the effectiveness of profiling, but which are formulated
in the form of a home survey. For example, Kocsis and Hayes (2004) studied whether the
police officers had a positive bias when evaluating a profile created by one of their
similar to a profile created by a person whose training was not mentioned.
In addition to revealing nothing about the effectiveness of profiling, these studies lack 'validity.'
naturalistic validity, meaning they occur in a context different from
the one where profiling is usually practiced.

These limits therefore impact our assessment of profiling, insofar as it cannot

to be mainly guided by the published research and that these turn out to be rare, often
not very rigorous and conducted by self-proclaimed profilers.

3.7.3 Recommendations

The methods of behavioral profiling inference should be formalized and

recorded (which does not mean, let us clarify, that they must be made public since
The criminals would then obtain a manual to thwart them.

Criteria for performance to evaluate the actual effectiveness of profiling

behavioral should be formulated.

Research should be conducted to empirically assess the effectiveness of

behavioral profiling in the Canadian context. This research should particularly focus on
on three elements: 1) the performance of profilers compared to that of detectives does not
not having such training (in order to establish the added value of profiling to the methods
conventional surveys), 2) the accuracy of the profiles (by comparing the predictions of
profilers with the characteristics of offenders in resolved cases) and 3) the actual contribution
from profiling to the identification and arrest of suspects.

48
4. Geographic profiling
The location of criminals is an important part of the work of investigators (Canter,
1994). Thus, geographical order indices can prove valuable for the forces of
the order when conducting investigations, particularly in cases of offenses committed at
repetition by the same individual (Rossmo, 2000). The geographic profiling used in this
context can be defined as [TRANSLATION] " […] an information strategy aimed at […]
to criminal investigations that analyze the information from the crime scene to determine which
is the most likely place where the residence of the attacker is located
p. 259). Some research indicates that the use of geographic profiling systems
can reduce the investigators' investigation area by 90% (Canter, Coffey, Huntley and
Missen, 2000; Rossmo, 2000). The geographical profiling services provided by the police are
intended for various bodies: federal and provincial governments and different sectors
law enforcement agencies, including the RCMP, the FBI, and Scotland Yard (Rossmo, 2000).

According to Rossmo (2000), compiling geographical data alongside data

identified as useful for criminal profiling makes the tools more powerful
intended for crime analysis. Thus, crime mapping has become a practice
common analytical approach of police services. The ability to use data
Geographical information efficiently is related to the use of information systems.
geographic (Rossmo, 2000).

In a survey conducted by Mamalian and La Vigne (1999) among 2004 police departments
Americans, 85% of respondents stated that crime mapping was a useful tool.
The results of this survey also indicated that 'crime clustering' (grouping of
crimes) and hot spot analyses were the most commonly used mapping applications.
The information produced through mapping applications can subsequently be
compared with information obtained, for example, from the census and by members of
the community.

4.1 Theoretical Framework

Geographic profiling takes its meaning as a stakeholder in an investigative process.

criminal. The following sequence, proposed by Rossmo (2000), specifies how
geographical profiling is part of an investigation process:

Occurrence of a series of crimes;

2) Use of traditional survey techniques;
3) Linkage analysis;
4) Development of a criminal profile;
5) Use of geographic profiling and
6) Use of new investigation strategies.

49
Moreover, the use of geographical profiling relies on a number of assumptions,
namely:

1) The profile must be based on several crime scenes (multiple crimes committed by a
same individual or multiple places associated with the same crime;
2) Crime scenes must be attributable to the same offender;
3) The place of residence (or the base of operations) and the area of criminal activity of the individual
those who commit crimes should not be separated by a long journey;
The distribution of crime scenes must be relatively uniform around the residence.
or from the offender's base of operations and
5) The offender must not change their base of operation (point of anchorage) or operate from
several different operating bases during his crime series (Bennell and Corey, 2007).

In the simplest cases, the criminal's residence is located at the center of the crime pattern.
(crime pattern) and can be discovered using spatial analysis methods. However, the
For the most part, the relationship between the crime scene and the criminal's residence is
much more complex (Rossmo, 2000).

Rengert (1996) proposes four spatial distribution schemes that may apply to the
geography of crime locations: 1) uniform patterns, without diminishing effect based on
of distance (distance-decay) in which crime appears to be uniformly distributed; 2) the
concentric type schemes (bull’s eye) in which a decrease in crime is observed related to
at the distance around an anchor point with a high crime rate; 3) the patterns
bimodal areas where crimes are concentrated around two different anchor points and
4) drop-shaped diagrams, centered around an anchor point but demonstrating a
directional trend towards a second anchor point. According to Rossmo (2000), in reality, these
schemes are affected by various factors such as the configuration of the road network and the
traffic density, the type of zoning and land use. All these factors contribute to
limit the scope of geographical profiling, without making it ineffective.

Moreover, Felson and Clarke (1998) present three theories underlying the practice of
geographic profiling: the routine activity theory, the crime pattern theory and the
theory of rational choice.

4.1.1 Routine Activity Theory

This theory initially developed as an explanation for predatory crimes. It posits

that for such crimes to occur, there must be convergence in time and space
of at least three elements: a potential criminal, a suitable victim, and the absence of a
guardian able to protect the victim. The risk faced by the victim would then depend on four
factors: the value of the target, its inertia, its visibility, and ease of access. This theory assumes
that the number of crimes can increase without more criminals if, for example,
there are more potential victims or it is easier to access in the absence of a
effective guardian. There are two implications for geographic profiling: crimes would be
committed mainly 1) in places corresponding to the routine activities of criminals and 2) there

50
where it turns out to be relatively easy to commit them because there is frequent convergence in the
time and space of the three elements listed above.

4.1.2 Crime Pattern Theory

This theory focuses on how the people and objects involved in the activities
criminals move through time and space. It links three concepts: 1) the
nodes (the starting and ending points of individuals' movements), 2) the trajectories between
the nodes and 3) the edges (borders or delimitations between certain areas). Attention
particular attention is paid to the geographical distribution of crimes. This theory assumes that the
crime is influenced by the characteristics of the nodes, it will be more present
around the nodes conducive to crime and the trajectories that lead there as well as nearby
certain boundary lines that are sensitive points.

4.1.3 Rational choice theory

This theory views the criminal as a rational being constantly engaged in a

evaluation of the costs and benefits of crime (Beauregard, Rossmo and Proulx, 2007). The emphasis
is therefore placed on the decision-making of the offender since the basic assumption is that the crime
is a behavior motivated by a goal and undertaken to yield a certain benefit. The theory
aims to understand individuals' criminal choices in terms of motivations in a
given context providing opportunities to satisfy this motivation. At the profiling level
Geographically, it appears that, as the movement far from the base of operation to commit
a crime incurs a cost, the majority of offenders will commit their crimes
reasonably close to their place of residence (Beauregard and Rossmo, 2007; Brantingham and
Brantingham, 1990).

Brantingham and Brantingham (1990) also looked into geographic profiling using
environmental criminology, which focuses more on
the study of the context of the crime rather than the motivations of the criminal. Thus, criminology
Environmental criminology is based on the principle that a crime is the result of the confluence
between 1) at least one criminal, 2) a victim (or any target), 3) laws in place and,
finally, 4) a given place and time. This means that the analysis of a crime involves four
dimensions: a legal dimension, a criminal dimension, a dimension related to
the victim (or the target) and a spatiotemporal dimension. Brantingham and Brantingham (1990)
add moreover that these dimensions must themselves be interpreted in relation to the
historical, social, economic, political contexts as well as according to the characteristics
biological and physical aspects of the environment since each of these characteristics contributes to the establishment
place of the crime context. For example, Tita and Ridgeway (2007) demonstrated how the
Gang formation influenced the prevalence and distribution of criminal activities.

Brantingham and Brantingham (1990) highlight the fact that crimes are often
committed within the context of daily life events and daily commutes
of individuals. Thus, individuals generally commit their crimes close to the places

51
where they spend most of their time, such as their home, their workplace, their school
or the shops and leisure places they frequent. Similarly, the
Individuals who find themselves victims of criminal acts are generally in places where they
often frequent or along the routes that connect these various places. This means not only
that criminal events can be understood and predicted through knowledge of the location of
life and places frequented by a criminal, but also that crime, in general, can
to be understood and predicted through the analysis of urban structure (distribution of types
land use in cities, configuration of the road network and configuration of the system of
transport).

Another theoretical basis of environmental criminology argues that the location of a

crime is determined through structured research and decision-making processes
influenced by the criminal's perception of the environmental clues that distinguish a
"good criminal opportunity" of a "bad criminal risk." These authors argue
also that the perception of space varies according to the age of the criminal.

Brantingham and Brantingham (1990) also emphasize the need to take into account
consideration of the "ecological labels" (écological labels) which are described as being a
"reputations associated by people with specific places or neighborhoods" (p. 4) and having an effect
on crime. These labels particularly influence the type of individuals (and the group
socio-economic) that will be attracted or on the contrary repelled by a certain neighborhood and the perception
what the police officers, social workers, and other individuals have. It also affects the
perception by criminals of the neighborhood as being or not being a suitable place to commit.
a crime. These observations are consistent with the results of Dunham, Alpert, Stroshine.
and Bennett (2005) and Ingram (2007).

Based on the urban structure and knowledge related to perception and cognition
In the criminal context, Brantingham and Brantingham (1990) came to the conclusions
following:

1. The older cities, which are often characterized by a concentric shape with
of a dense core, have a crime distribution pattern showing a
increased crime near the center;
2. The younger cities that exhibit a mosaic pattern show a crime pattern
more disparate;
3. The younger cities that have highly dispersed commercial sectors
show a higher rate of property crimes;
The development of major transport arteries leads to a concentration
criminal events near highways and particularly near the
major intersections;
5. The developed sectors based on the grid principle are generally more conducive
to the crime that the more 'organic' provisions (organic street layouts);
6. The older cities where low-income housing is scattered in the
territories are likely to show a concentration of crimes near the heart of the
city as well as near various low-income housing areas;
The movement of workplaces from the heart of the city to the outskirts tends to make
increase crime in the suburbs;

52
 8. Major leisure complexes, such as arenas, are likely to increase
the crime in a localized manner. If these complexes are located near an area
residential housing several potential criminals, crime will increase significantly
drastic;
9. The cities that have a red light district in their center are
susceptible to displaying a concentration of crimes in this area. However, the fact of
forcing the dispersion of typical activities will not necessarily
reduce the total number of crimes but will rather change their spatial distribution.

4.2 Application

Various methods have been developed in order to apply geography to the field of
profiling of criminals. The potential application of geographic information systems
(SIG) in serial murder investigations has been recognized for several years now.
Since GIS allows for the combination of geographic attributes and data
spatial data to other relevant data, they prove to be useful tools in order to organize
information that may, at first glance, seem disparate (Oatley, Ewart and Zeleznikow,
According to Rogers, Craig, and Anderson (cited in Rossmo, 2000), the information
Geographically coded can be used to detect crime trends and patterns.
recurring, to confirm the presence of certain individuals in certain areas and delineate the
sectors where patrols should be concentrated. According to the same authors, the use of GIS
could contribute to the identification of a serial killer through the retrospective analysis of cases
known and could, in itself, prove useful in order to solve murder cases
unresolved.

In the field of GIS, three models for geographically targeting criminals are currently
in use (Paulsen, 2006). The first was developed based on research conducted by
Simon Fraser University and the Vancouver Police Department. This is about the
CGT model (Criminal Geographical Targeting), based on Brantingham's theoretical model
and Brantingham (1990). According to this model, the geographic coordinates of crime scenes
are analyzed using a decreasing spatial probability algorithm (distance decay
function) (diminution based on distance) allowing to produce a representation
spatial, in two or three dimensions, probabilities of the location of a residence of a
criminal (Paulsen, 2006; Rossmo, 2000). According to Rossmo (2000), the CGT model proves to be valid and
reliable when strict application criteria are met, particularly for the purpose of making
reduce the subjectivity of the process. For example, only crime scenes recognized as
these should be considered valid data and not, for example, the place where the
victim was last seen. According to Rossmo (2000), a main limitation of
the application of the CGT model lies in the fact that it is less useful in the case where the criminal
traveled a long distance to commit his crime. However, it was highlighted by
Rossmo (2000) states that when a crime is committed far from the criminal's residence, it is
it is often possible to identify, near the crime scene, the workplace of the criminal, a
the former residence or the residence of a relative or a friend of the latter. This model is
exploited by two software: RIGEL and RIGEL Analyst (a simplified version of RIGEL).

53
The other two models are those of Canter, operationalized by the Dragnet software, and that of
Levine, the basis of the Crimestat software (Paulsen, 2006). The latter, unlike the models of
Rossmo and Canter rely on a Journey to Crime (JTC) approach. The distinction between
the two approaches stems from the fact that the JTC model is strictly statistical and does not rely on
a theoretical framework of geographic profiling, such as that of Brantingham and
Brantingham (Paulsen, 2006).

Nevertheless, Rossmo (2000) and Ainsworth (2001) remind us that it is important to keep in mind
the mind the fact that even when the model produces highly accurate results, it does not lead to
not the police to the criminal's door. Geographic profiling software must be
seen as information management systems from a geographical perspective useful for
investigation process rather than as a cure-all. They can help prioritize certain suspects
and to concentrate patrol forces in a defined area and therefore possibly reduce
the time between when the crime is committed and when the criminal is apprehended
(Rossmo, 2000).

4.3 Empirical Support

4.3.1 Reduction of the search area

One of the advantages attributed to geographical profiling is the reduction of the area to be explored.
before locating the operational base of an offender. Available research estimates that
Geographical profiling could reduce the territory to be covered by investigators by 90%.
(Bennell, Snook, Taylor, Corey and Keyton, 2007). Research conducted by Beauregard and
Rossmo (2007) is even more optimistic. According to them, the proportion of the surface covered by
the crimes that should be examined by the police would rise to 7.1% for armed robberies,
5.1%
criminals. These results are of the same order of magnitude as those obtained by Laukkanen and
Santtila (2006), who obtained a median research area equivalent to 4.69% of the surface
covered by crimes. For their part, Canter and Larkin (1993) observe a research area
median of 1.07% when the routes of the offenders seem to correspond to the heuristic of
circle. On the other hand, when the offender was traveling to the scene of the crime, the
predictions were much more inaccurate, the median search area covering 24.06%
total surface.

4.3.2 Precision

The effectiveness and accuracy of geographic profiling can vary depending on the type of crime. For
the localization of the terrorists' base of operations, for example, Bennell and Corey (2007)
they obtain inconclusive results with the Dragnet software. They point out the difficulty of
profiling crimes for which the perpetrators have traveled long distances. Furthermore, it seems that
Terrorism is difficult to fit into geographical profiling as it is often the work
of organizations with several bases of operation and that a series of attacks may involve
more than one author.

54
In cases of burglaries, Bennell, Snook, Taylor, Corey, and Keyton (2007) observe a
reduction of the margin of error in predicting the residence location of the offender by
minimally trained police officers in the use of simple heuristics (circle heuristic and decay
heuristic) (circle heuristic and decreasing heuristic). Their performance after training
surpassed that of a control group that had not learned to handle heuristics. This reduction
the prediction error would be greater when the number of profiled crimes increases by
three to five, then from five to seven. However, the actual accuracy of the methods can hardly be
evaluated since the results are only provided in millimeters of deviation on a map
geographical without being converted into kilometers (to true scale).

Paulsen (2006), for his part, rightly emphasizes that the accuracy is generally modest:
especially, the results also seem to indicate that none of the strategies are
truly accurate, the average error distance for all strategies being 4.45 miles,
"a significant distance in an urban area" (p. 316). When comparing seven
computerized algorithms and three heuristic methods, Paulsen (2006) also notes
that the geographical profiles obtained from heuristic methods turned out, on average, more
often correct than those provided by the seven profiling software, the place of residence being
included in the profile obtained heuristically 27.6% of the time compared to 11.4% for the
computerized methods. This better performance would not be obtained at the expense of a loss
In particular, these strategies lead on the other hand to a zone of profiles.
superiors (top profile area) whose average is significantly lower than that of
probability distance strategies, except for one of them (negative exponential), this
which indicates that their accuracy is not necessarily due to the excessively large size of the profiles
average geographical rates" (Paulsen 2006, p. 316). The success rate of profiling, understood as
the percentage of profiles actually containing the residence of the criminal would be relatively
modest according to these results (from 20% to 30% in the best case).

4.3.3 Heuristics versus software

The preceding results highlight that the performance of geographical profiling does not seem
not depend on the acquisition of sophisticated software. Paulsen (2006) argues that:

These results cast serious doubts about whether an organization

of the application of the law that needs to obtain a geographical profile would find
some real advantage to using a probability strategy rather than a simple one
spatial distribution strategy [heuristic]. This point is even more
important given the cost to the organization, both financially and in
terms of time invested, to acquire a probability strategy
rather than a simple spatial distribution strategy and to learn to
to use it (p. 327).

This position is also supported by Snook, Canter, and Bennell (2002) as well as by Bennell,
short

55
training on the circle heuristic or the decreasing heuristic has proven sufficient for
increase the predictive accuracy of agents. [...] Both groups achieved an accuracy
average better than that of methods requiring numerous calculations [CrimeStat]
(p. 128). Snook, Taylor and Bennell had already reached such a conclusion regarding the use
of the heuristic of the circle in a research published in 2004.

4.3.4 Limits

The success of geographic profiling seems to depend on certain factors. For example, a
important distance between the crimes and the criminal's place of residence as well as a large
the dispersion of crimes seems to make profiling more difficult (Paulsen, 2006). The number of
crimes in a series, if it is too low (less than three) or too high (more than seven), could
also complicate the task of investigators. Additionally, some crimes seem more conducive to
geographical profiling, such as car thefts and residential burglaries.

Ultimately, geographic profiling assumes a series of crimes or crime locations that may
to be assigned to the same offender (Paulsen, 2006). What the reviewed studies do not
demonstrate not convincingly, it is the ability of profilers to associate a series of
crimes to a given criminal. Some studies seem to suggest the feasibility of this association.
(Santtila, Fritzon and Tamelander, 2004; Santtila, Junkkila and Sandnabba, 2005), that is to say that
the basic postulates of this type of analysis (linkage analysis) seem to be able to
to be demonstrated, but these studies suffer from significant methodological deficiencies. The validity
postulates according to which 1) the same offender demonstrates a certain stability in their
criminal behaviors and 2) different offenders adopt practices allowing to
distinguishing them does receive some support, albeit lukewarm, in cases of burglaries (Bennell and
Jones, 2005; Woodhams and Toye, 2007). On the other hand, it seems that the distance between the crimes
provides a better basis for linking these crimes together than any clue.
behavioral. In the absence of solid empirical evidence that crimes can be
linked based on behavioral indicators, taking into account the pairing of crimes and
offenders (link analysis), which is nonetheless an integral part of the investigative work, could make
decrease the observed success rate of geographic profiling.

4.4 Conclusions
4.4.1 Summary

It seems that the potential effectiveness of geographic profiling, particularly in terms of

reduction of the research area has been empirically demonstrated, and this has been done several times. From
Moreover, this effectiveness would not depend on the use of software: the knowledge of a
a limited number of simple heuristics by law enforcement seems to lead to results
equivalents to those obtained by the software Crimestat, Dragnet, RIGEL, and RIGEL Analyst. By
Elsewhere, geographical profiling would be based on a number of theoretical frameworks.
among which some axioms would have been empirically supported.

56
However, the practice of geographic profiling is, in fact, carried out in two stages: 1)
attribution of a series of crimes to the same offender and 2) establishment of a profile
geographical defining the research area with the highest probability of containing
the residence of the offender based on the coordinates of the different crime scenes. If he has
It has been empirically demonstrated that the second step can be accomplished relatively
effective, the research does not allow for judgment of the investigators' ability to carry out the
first. Now, the effectiveness and usefulness of geographical profiling depend on the ability
to accomplish the two tasks reasonably accurately. The allocation of responsibility
linking a series of crimes to the same individual brings us back to criminal profiling, which itself does not
still has to prove itself empirically. Studies suggest a certain stability
temporal operating mode and, above all, the signature, in
particularly in the case of highly personal crimes (rapes, homicides, etc.). Furthermore, these
elements often have sufficiently distinctive characteristics to at least infer
the possibility of linking a suspect to a series of interpersonal crimes. However, the performance
The profile researchers engaged in this task do not seem to have been documented.

4.4.2 Limits

The main limitation of the researched studies is the one mentioned above, namely the provision.
to the analysts of a series of crimes previously correctly attributed to the same
offender. In reality, this first step is a challenge and an important part of the work.
of investigation. The empirical support for geographic profiling can therefore only be considered as
partial. In addition, several studies have been conducted by the very authors of the software
geographical profiling (Rossmo, Canter), which raises doubts about their independence.
Independent research clearly suggests that the use of software is not
not a sine qua non (absolute) condition for the success of geographic profiling.

4.4.3 Recommendations

The way to choose and enter the coordinates for geographical profiling should be
standardized (for example, if a confrontation starts in a bar, continues outside and
ends a few streets away with a homicide, which coordinates mark
the location of the crime?)

Research should be conducted to assess the performance of analysts during

from the first step (attributing crimes to the same suspect) of profiling practice
geographical.

5. Prospect profiling
The practice of profiling can, among other things, be characterized by the moment when the profile is drawn up.
regarding crime, either before (ex ante) or after (ex post) (Harcourt, 2007). Profiling

57
The criminal, addressed in the previous sections, constituted an ex post profiling, while the
prospective profiling is applied ex ante.

5.1 Contextualization

The idea of formal or systematized prospective profiling, applied to public security, is

inspired by the insurance sector. The initial research, conducted in the 1930s to
The University of Chicago focused on recidivism in parole. According to Harcourt
(2007), this period corresponds to a transition, in terms of security, from the punishment of crimes
moved to the prevention of future crimes through the selective neutralization (incapacitation) of
delinquents. This period also marks the transition, in the United States, from clinical judgment to
actuarial judgment, particularly due to the demonstrated superiority of the latter, which is less
susceptible to cognitive biases and arbitrary judgments (Harcourt, 2003; Schauer, 2003). It
It is a paradigmatic change not only in practices, but also on the level
epistemological

There has been a change towards a new management approach.

bureaucratic crime whose thinking emphasizes concentration,
probabilities and risk assessment instead of personalized determination:
a new probabilistic system based on an actuarial approach to management
crime or a risk-based approach (Harcourt 2003,
p. 106)

This actuarial approach has gradually led to the development of the profile of the hijacker.
(hijacker) in the 1960s, of the drug courier and the smuggler
of illegal immigrants in the 1970s as well as of the terrorist (Harcourt, 2003). The use of
These practices in justifying the 'reasonable suspicion' have notably received the endorsement of the Court.
Supreme Court of the United States in US v. Sokolow: [TRANSLATION] " […] the Supreme Court [of the United States]
Unis] concluded that the comparison of police force observations with a profile
determined in advance that the drug trafficker was sufficiently linked to specific and precise facts
to meet the applicable constitutional requirements" (Schauer 2003, p. 170).

However, profiling and the extent of its use have sparked intense debates.
both in Canada and the United States. In the United States, the 5eAmendment to the Constitution states
that no one can be deprived of their life, liberty or property without
regular application of the law" (Cornell University Law School, 2008). In Canada, Article 3 of
The Canadian Human Rights Act states that 'For the application of this Act,'
The grounds for unlawful distinction are those based on race, national origin or
ethnicity, color, religion, age, sex, sexual orientation, marital status, the
family situation, the status of a pardoned person or disability" (Government of Canada,
Ministry of Justice, 1985). These elements outline the work of law enforcement.
to which a presumption of justice is attributed in the exercise of their functions:
a government policy that violates fundamental human rights
is presumed to be unlawful and therefore requires an affirmative defense. It is the defender's responsibility to
this policy demonstrates that the violation meets other social objectives specific to

58
justify the violation" (Durlauf 2005, p. 134). In this context, to justify the use of
prospective profiling, especially if sensitive criteria covered by the Canadian Human Rights Act
the person is part of the profile, it is up to the security agencies to demonstrate that the
The benefits of profiling outweigh its drawbacks.

5.2 Definitions

The principle underlying profiling, since the almost general abandonment of the approach
the goal is to develop correlations between a criminal activity
particular and belonging to a group defined by certain traits in order to assist the police in
identify potential suspects in the context of investigations. Criminal profiling [prospective] has
resort to a probability-based analysis aimed at identifying suspects and subjecting them
to a surveillance" (Harcourt 2003, p. 109). It is therefore an actuarial approach (by
opposition to a heuristic approach) since it does not rely entirely on an evaluation
of probabilities but also on establishing statistical correlations between
the belonging to a group defined by certain traits and the prevalence of criminal activities
(Harcourt, 2007).

As far as profiling does not necessarily involve race as

criteria, it must be distinguished, at least in theory, from racial profiling, which uses race, alone or
in conjunction with other factors, as an indicator of crime (Ramirez, Hoopes and
Quinlan, 2003). For Glaser (2006), racial profiling refers to [TRANSLATION] " […] the practice
by the police consisting of exercising increased surveillance on members of a race (or of a
particular " (p. 396). This distinction is important since
the effectiveness of profilings prospective in general and the effectiveness of racial profiling in particular are
two questions that are indeed related but different.

5.3 Fundamental Postulates

The practice of predictive profiling is based on two fundamental premises (Glaser, 2006;
Harcourt, 2003): 1) members of certain social groups exhibit a crime rate
proportionately higher than their representation in the general population and 2) if such a
when this situation is observed, it is fair and effective to target these groups proportionally to their rate.
of crime in the allocation of police resources.

In addition to these two postulates, it is implicitly assumed that criminals act in a way
rational and therefore, they will react to the fluctuation of the probabilities of being selected. It is the
deterrence logic: it is assumed that if the probabilities of being caught for a
If crime increases for a given group, the crime rate will decrease accordingly.
(Harcourt, 2007).

However, this postulate also implies, in a context where police resources are not
unlimited, that 1) the addition of resources to target a given group corresponds to a decrease
resources to monitor other groups and 2) the less monitored groups will react

59
also rationally and will increase their criminal activities accordingly. In
[profiling] will not
to increase the well-being of society if it has the effect of lowering crime in society
as a whole, and this will only happen if the crime rate of the members of the targeted groups
which have a higher crime rate shows an elasticity equal to or greater than
"report on police operations" (p. 123). By "elasticity," Harcourt refers to the capacity of.
reaction of groups to changes in policing strategies. This condition of elasticity
equivalent would be, according to Harcourt, unlikely since, insofar as the targeted group
shows a higher crime rate, it would be surprising if its elasticity were lower or
equal to that of the non-targeted group.

60
5.4 Limits to the applicability of the actuarial model

If the actuarial model prevails, it is because, at least in the case of predicting recidivism, its
the application has proven to be more effective than the clinical approach. However, its extension
Theoretical profiling of all types is limited by several factors. First,
No empirical research has been able to demonstrate the effect of profiling on crime.
Consequently, the probabilities used in the models and simulations do not have any
empirical bases (Durlauf, 2005; Gold, 2003; Harcourt, 2007). According to Glaser (2006), it is about
Therefore, since there is currently no data allowing for a rigorous study of the effect of
prospective profiling (racial in this case) on crime: [TRANSLATION] "In fact, the Bureau of
general accounting has attempted to study the extent and implications of racial profiling, in order to
finally conclude that we did not have the required data to draw such
conclusions. More recently, the Office of the Legislative Analyst (Legislative Analyst Office, LAO)
from the State of California reached a similar conclusion." (p. 397). For example, Harcourt
(2007) explains that the study of the effect of racial profiling on drug transport suffers from
the lack of data on the long-term effect of profiling on the total number of drivers
(targeted and non-targeted) transporting illicit drugs.

Then, depending on the adopted model, the same data can be interpreted differently.
Thus, let us take the example of equivalent hit rates between the groups when one
groups are more targeted by police searches. Ramirez, Hoopes, and Quinlan (2003)
advances that this situation demonstrates that the presumption that the targeted group is
more likely to commit a criminal act would be false, the groups seeming
contravene proportionately in an equal manner. They conclude that profiling would not be
justified in this case since the first basic postulate presented above would not be respected.
Harcourt (2003, 2007), on the other hand, interprets this situation as the state of equilibrium reached.
when profiling the targeted group, by reducing its crime rate, it brought it back to
same level as the non-targeted groups. For him, the equivalence of the propensities of two
groups violating the law can only be demonstrated by observing crime rates
equal while no group is particularly targeted by law enforcement.

The study of profiling in the context of terrorist prevention would be even more
according to Harcourt (2007), the low frequency (base-rate) of terrorist attacks on soil
American ones make them particularly difficult to prevent and detect, while allocating more
time for terrorist organizations to change their modus operandi to thwart
anti-terrorism measures. Ramirez, Hoopes, and Quinlan (2003), for their part, state that
the appeal to race, ethnicity, or nationality in this context more
amorphous [in the fight against terrorism] greatly diminishes its usefulness by restricting the
"category of suspects" (p. 1227) since authorities generally do not have
of a defined time interval, of a specific location, or of a description of the crime to be committed or of the
suspects on which to base their surveillance efforts.

61
5.5 General assessment of the potential of predictive profiling

According to Schauer (2003), if the use of predictive profiling can be justified, it must take into account the
values and sensitivities of a society. For example, targeting actions that would not constitute
not a crime in themselves but made illegal because the legislator considers
that generally lead to criminal acts is not controversial (for example, the
possession of a sawed-off weapon or the omission to declare the transport of large quantities of
currencies abroad). On the other hand, the inclusion of race as an indicator of criminal activity
in a profile evokes strong reactions and often brings the debate into the moral arena or
ethics, regardless of its potential effectiveness (Durlauf, 2006; Lever, 2005; Risse, 2004; Risse and
Zeckhauser, 2003).

For Tyler (2005) and Durlauf (2005), racial profiling deviates from the presumption of justice without
to justify oneself on empirical grounds: [TRANSLATION] "in the context of profiling
Racial profiling is not justified according to the presumption of justice.
since there is no positive demonstration of its effectiveness, while there is a
"manifest violation of justice" (Durlauf 2005, p. 134). This objection, which can apply to
all the sensitive criteria of the Canadian Human Rights Act implies
also the consequences in terms of social stigma towards targeted groups and
break of trust between the communities and the police forces. As pointed out
Ramirez, Hoopes and Quinlan (2003):

when law enforcement practices are perceived

biased, unfair, and disrespectful, communities of color and the
other minority groups are less inclined to trust the police and
to law enforcement agencies to report the offenses committed against them
attention, to provide information and details, and to serve as
witnesses during the trials (p. 1196).

In this context, it is not impossible that the impact resulting from profiling and its
consequences are generally negative.

According to Harcourt (2007), the problem lies more in the fact that profiling, if it is
applied in a dynamic way in the sense that the allocation of police resources is readjusted
regularly, risks amplifying the inequalities between groups in terms of arrests and
representation in prison: [TRANSLATION] "racial profiling [prospective], when it
works, constitutes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It worsens over time the
perception of the correlation between the targeted group and crime" (p. 154). Furthermore, the
the phenomenon of differences in elasticity could result in a decrease in crime among
the target group. On the other hand, it could result in an overall increase in crime
since the non-targeted group, generally the majority, could react to the decrease in surveillance
by violating further. However, these perverse effects have never been empirically documented.

Ultimately, especially for crimes whose prevalence (base rate) is very low in the
population, the risk of false positives and false negatives is high (Harcourt, 2007; Ramirez,

62
Hoopes and Quinlan, 2003). For example, within the framework of the war on terrorism, a profile
targeting only young men from the Middle East would have been more or less blind
(depending on other criteria) in the cases of John Walker Lindh (American of race
Blanche), Zacarias Moussaoui (African with a French passport) and Richard Reid (half
India, half English with an English passport). The case of Moussaoui is particularly
interesting since he would have been arrested based on behavioral criteria deemed suspicious by
the instructor of his flying school (paid his registration in cash, wanted to fly
commercial airplanes but had no basic training, was not interested in learning
how to take off or land, did not understand the questions asked in French but said to himself
French and showed hostility when questioned about his past.

5.6 Empirical support

5.6.1 Fight against drug trafficking
[Link] Context

First, let us note that profiling cannot be considered in a case where the arrest and the search do not
they do not depend on the discretionary power of the agents: [TRANSLATION] "to put it simply,
one cannot consider that an agent engages in racial profiling when the rules of his
organization where the codes of the State compel it to do so" (Liederbach, Trulson, Fritsch, Caeti
and Taylor 2007, p. 117). In this context, the first profile of the drug trafficker was created in
1974 by agent Paul Markonni of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) when he was
assigned to the monitoring of Detroit Metropolitan Airport (Robin, 1993). There is a
a multitude of factors that can be included in the profile, but the most common factors
1) to arrive or leave a city known to be a source of supply of
drugs; 2) having little or no luggage or having several empty suitcases; 3) traveling by a
uncommon itinerary (for example, making a brief round trip while the journey takes)
a lot of time or make a last minute reservation); 4) use a false name when
the registration; 5) having with oneself or in one's luggage a large amount of cash; 6)
pay for his plane ticket in cash and in small denominations and show unusual nervousness
or make stealthy movements (Robin, 1993). Although many denounce the use of these
factors because several of them can include a large proportion of travelers
innocents (Robin, 1993), it remains true that during the first eighteen months of the
profiling program at Detroit Metropolitan Airport, agents searched 141
people and arrested 122 for drug trafficking (Robin, 1993).

[Link] Use of profiling

Although the effectiveness of a profile may in this case be at least partially demonstrated,
several people found guilty of drug possession following profiling have made
appeal of their sentence on the grounds that profiles cannot be used as evidence,
particularly if they include race or ethnic origin. Gabbidon, Marzette and Peterson
However, (2007) indicates that in 56.3% of the 76 cases argued in American courts,
the person accusing the law enforcement of racial profiling had indeed reported
guilty of criminal activities. Only 31.1% of cases have been won by the

63
individuals claiming to be wronged. In the United States, the number of calls is now decreasing. One of these
This is the case of Reid v. Georgia (United States Supreme Court, 1980). In this case, the defendant was
arrested by a DEA agent upon his arrival at Atlanta Airport due to doubts based on
the factors of the profile. Although the agents found cocaine in the defendant's bag, the Court
the court rejected the conviction of the accused because [TRANSLATION] 'the factors of the profile
employees by DEA agents to stop him did not allow for the establishment of 'grounds'
reasonable grounds for suspicion, the essential element allowing to end an investigation
(Robin 1993, p. 45). However, the legality of the profile was recognized by the Supreme Court in 1989.
in United States v. Sokolow (United States Supreme Court, 1989). In this case, the defendant was
intercepted at Honolulu Airport with 1,063 grams of cocaine. Several clues indicated
believe that he was a drug trafficker, the fact that he stayed in Miami (which is a hub
drug trafficking) for only 48 hours while a flight to go to
the destination takes twenty hours, that he paid $2,100 for two round-trip tickets in denominations of
twenty dollars and that he seemed nervous during his trip (United States Supreme Court, 1989).
Although the accused successfully appealed his conviction, the case ended up in court.
Supreme, which overturned the decision of the Court of Appeal and upheld the conviction of the accused.
In this case, the Supreme Court invoked the fact that [TRANSLATION] 'even if each of these
factors do not in themselves prove illegal conduct and remain quite compatible with a
good faith voyage, they correspond, taken as a whole, to reasonable motives of
to suspect that a criminal activity is about to take place" (p. 7). Furthermore, it is specified
the fact that the agents believed that the behavior of the respondent coincided
with one of the DEA drug smuggler profiles does not change this analysis, given
that the factors in question contain significant evidence regardless of the fact that they
belong to a profile" (p. 10).

In a context other than that of airport border checks, when it is

the issue of prospective profiling (especially racial) concerning drug trafficking, the literature carries
often on stops and searches of motorists driving on highways and who are
suspected of being drug traffickers. In this case, the first profile of the highway drug
couriera was developed in 1984 in Florida by patroller Bob Vogel, who analyzed thirty cases
major arrests for drug trafficking over a period of thirteen months. Vogel is one of them.
arrived at a list of similarities: the cars were often occupied by two young men
(between 20 and 45 years old) African Americans driving below the speed limit at night with
a rented car from another state, heading north on highway 95,
main route of drug shipments taking their goods from Miami and then
directed towards the Northeast markets (Robin, 1993). After the driver is stopped,
other factors come into play in the profile including the presence of a radar detector and
divergent responses from passengers (Robin, 1993). According to the same author, the profiles
are legally valid in other states when the profile factors are completed by
other clues before or during the interrogation. The use of these profiles is facilitated by the
Supreme Court judgment of the United States in Whren v. United States
Court, 1996), which rules that the use of minor traffic code violations as
pretext for stopping and searching a vehicle when patrollers suspect its occupants
drug trafficking does not go against the Constitution (Birzer and Birzer, 2006; Withrow,
2007).

64
Several studies have shown that African Americans were more likely to be taken advantage of
stop, search, imprison, deny bail and condemn that the people
of the white race (Gaines, 2006; Schafer, Carter, Katz-Bannister and Wells, 2006; Stokes, 2007;
Withrow, 2007). In addition, most research has found to varying degrees that the police
disproportionately targeted individuals from ethnic minorities and that these
people were treated differently than white people during interactions (Novak,
2004). The reason put forward to validate the use of racial profiling is simple: profiling
Racial would increase the likelihood of seizing a large amount of drugs (Gross and Barnes,
The study by Gross and Barnes (2002) is one of the only studies that examines in detail
objective on the validity of racial profiling as a tool for repression against drug trafficking.
The authors examine the data collected by the Maryland State Police (MSP) between January
1995 and June 2000 in order to examine whether this police force is engaging in racial profiling and whether
the use of this profiling proves useful against drug trafficking. One of the results of the study
demonstrates that black motorists who were stopped on the highway were three times more
more likely to be searched than white motorists and Hispanic drivers
were seven times more likely to be searched than white people. Additionally, the
data shows that African Americans who committed a traffic offense were about
twice as likely to be stopped as white drivers committing an offense
road and three times more likely to be searched. Although the data does not allow
to know the proportion of Hispanic drivers being stopped and searched, the authors have
I estimated that the probability of a Hispanic motorist being stopped and searched was seven times higher.
elevated only for a white motorist, despite the fact that these people seem,
statistically, less likely than whites and African Americans to carry
illegal drugs. Furthermore, in the majority of cases where the police uncover drugs
when an automobile driver is stopped, he possesses a small quantity of it,
resembles more of a personal use than trafficking.

However, it seems that ethnicity is combined with other factors, such as behavior,
age and sex, in the formation of suspicions on the part of agents (Dunham, Alpert, Stroshine
and Bennett, 2005). Moreover, the formation of suspicions will link race with place
where the individual is located (Ingram, 2007): this is particularly true for the young black man in a
upscale neighborhood mostly inhabited by white people. Thus, Meehan and Ponder
African Americans who travel in
sectors F and H, which are adjacent and contain the largest areas of white neighborhoods
richer, present analysis rates that are 325% and 383% higher than their
name in the population of motorists" (p. 417). They add that [TRANSLATION] "well
that the success rates of African Americans are significantly high overall, a
Analysis by location shows that the questions are most numerous regarding the
African Americans when their successes are at their lowest. Consequently, considerations of place,
and not the productivity of successes, leads the analysis rate of African Americans" (p. 420).

It is important to note that despite the adoption in 2003 of legislation prohibiting the use of
racial profiling (except in cases involving the identification of a potential terrorist), about
one in five police officers in the United States continues to believe that it is an ongoing problem
within his department (Ioimo, Tears, Meadows, Becton and Charles, 2007). Furthermore, the relationship
between the race and the location where the individual is found, established notably by Meehan and Ponder (2002), is
find in the speech of the police, but reversed: they give examples of situations

65
suspected the young white man in a black and underprivileged neighborhood known for the
drug trafficking. According to Glover (2007), this discursive adjustment reflects the maintenance of the stereotype
but a greater awareness that it is a sensitive subject, hence this adaptation more
sterilized.

[Link] Effectiveness of profiling

Despite the use of race in profiles, there is no conclusive study demonstrating that
Blacks are more likely than whites to carry drugs and some results
suggest that Hispanic people are even less so. For example, Welch (2007)
emphasizes that national surveys do not show differences between ethnic groups
regarding drug consumption. In the study presented by Gross and Barnes (2002),
The use of the driver's ethnic origin has not improved the success rate of the MSP.
Research on the success rates of stops indicates that
drugs are found in vehicles belonging to people from visible minorities in
a lower percentage than in a vehicle driven by a white person (Batton and
Kadleck, 2004). These results correspond with those presented by Schafer, Carter, Katz-
Bannister and Wells (2006) and Withrow (2007). Ramirez, Hoopes, and Quinlan (2003), after a
critical review of existing research assert that:

in many circumstances, and more particularly in the

context of drug distribution and other non-violent crimes, it is
impossible to determine to what extent a higher rate of arrests and
of convictions among men of color relates to activities
focused on them and on the will to stop and pursue them in particular or
if this reflects a higher rate of actual crime. [...] In the
context of drug repression and the fight against trafficking, the data
refute the presence of a circumstantial correlation between race and
crime (p. 1211).

Gross and Barnes (2002) conclude that "racial profiling on the highways
interstate costs are very high for thousands of motorists from
minorities solely for the purpose of trying to find a dozen drug dealers, without that
it gives nothing in return. […] The impulse that fuels the practice – for
increasing the transport of illegal drugs - also brings the measure of its success, and it
this measure is an absolute failure" (p. 753). We note therefore that, if the use of
profiles seem to be useful in combating drug trafficking, especially in
airports, the use of race as a criterion does not improve its effectiveness. In this sense, given
the repercussions on the perception of justice and interethnic relations, racial profiling
could even prove counterproductive.

5.6.2 Fight against terrorism

In August 2008, forty terrorist organizations were recognized by the Canadian Service.
security intelligence (SCRS). Of these forty organizations, twenty-two identified themselves as

66
Islamists and nineteen aimed at the creation of a Muslim state (independent or following the)
overthrow of a secular government). More than half came from countries with a majority
Muslim (Government of Canada, Department of Public Safety, 2008). In this
context, the use of profiling to combat terrorism clearly involves a
racial or religious component (Barak-Erez, 2008). However, there seems to be no consensus.
exist with regard to the definition of terrorism itself. As Schbley (2003) expresses:
[...] that's why past and current presidents (Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Clinton
and Bush) and several foreign leaders (Thatcher and Chrétien) to mention just a few,
have stated that what some call terrorism is for others a struggle for
liberation (p.106).

Generally, there are two types of initiatives against terrorism. The first type
constitutes a defensive or deterrent approach (Harcourt, 2006): it involves policies that
the goal is to prevent or hinder the success of a terrorist attack and to reduce the number and
the severity of the victims. This kind of preventive policy includes the development and
deployment of technological measures, such as metal or explosive detectors in the
airports, profiling and strengthening the protection of potential targets abroad.
As for the second type, it consists of preventive or proactive actions aimed at
dismantle terrorist organizations through infiltrations, preventive attacks or
of invasions of countries hosting terrorist organizations (Harcourt, 2006). However, as the
as Lum, Kennedy, and Sherley (2006) point out, the question of the effectiveness of these measures as
that their possible perverse effects are crucial but little explored.

For example, measures aimed at countering terrorism may have effects contrary to those
expected. Empirical studies tend to demonstrate that there is significant potential for a
substitution effect (Harcourt, 2006; Lum et al., 2006). For example, the installation of
metal detectors in airports in 1973 led to a significant decrease in the number and
the rate of aircraft hijackings worldwide, but has also led to an increase
increased and proportionally larger number of bomb attacks, assassinations, and kidnappings
hostages (Harcourt, 2006). The data from Lum et al. (2006) demonstrate that:

… while airport security contributes to the reduction of

hijackings, other forms of terrorism may have increased over time.
from the same period, such as various bombings, armed attacks,
hostage-taking, as well as events involving deceased persons
or injured (as opposed to accidents without victims) both in the short and long term
term (p. 503).

Another type of substitution observed in the last two decades is the rise of
suicide attacks carried out by women and children could stem directly from
profiling of young men from the Middle East. Such substitutions have been documented in
organizations such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Tamil Tigers (LTTE)
and the Brigades of the Martyrs of al-Aqsa (Cronin, 2003).

Regarding the use and effectiveness of profiling as a tool in the fight against
terrorism, literature becomes scarce. Among the obstacles to the study of terrorists, Hudson (1999) and
Schbley (2006) lists the absence of biographical databases (the databases

67
existing documents generally documenting the events rather than their authors) and restricted access
to terrorists, even those incarcerated (who generally refuse to reveal information)
(sensitive). In a literature review conducted by Lum et al. (2006), the authors found
more than 20,000 articles and books dealing with anti-terrorism measures. However, only seven
empirically validated articles have been analyzed. Furthermore, several articles provide
mainly a subjective assessment, without any empirical support:

there is no reliable empirical evidence to support the

that racial profiling constitutes an effective measure against terrorism, nor
solid theoretical reasons that could support it. The possibility of recruiting to
outside the groups targeted by profiling and to replace different modes
attacks makes racial profiling suspect in the context of the fight against
terrorism (Harcourt 2006, p. 3).

Cronin (2003) offers a similar viewpoint, arguing that there does not seem to be a 'profile' of the
some have alleged that there was no model at all related to this
profiles [kamikazes]. In any case, as we move toward the twenty-first century,
The stereotypes surrounding those who are likely to carry out suicide attacks are evolving.
to evaporate" (p. 8). Hudson (1999) goes in the same direction. After highlighting the abundance of
typologies and often contradictory theories and point out their lack of foundations
solid empirical evidence, he concludes that:

The isolation of attributes or traits shared by terrorists constitutes a

considerable task, because there are probably as many variations among the
terrorists that there are similarities. The efforts of academics to create a
The profile of the 'typical' terrorist has had, at best, mixed success, and the hypothesis
according to which such a profile would exist has not been proven. [...] the people who
joining terrorist groups comes from a wide range of cultures,
nationalities and ideological causes, from all strata of society, and from
various professions. Their personalities and character traits are also diverse.
than those of people from the general population. There seems to be a
consensus among psychologists that there is no characteristic
psychological profile that can be used to describe the terrorist or any trait of
personality specific to terrorists (p. 43).

The systematic targeting of individuals of Middle Eastern descent is an example of

racial profiling, a measure that receives some popular support in a context where the
the population is willing to trade certain rights and freedoms – or those of others – for
more security (Bahdi, 2003; Barak-Erez, 2008; Gross and Livingston, 2003; Viscusi and
Zeckhauser, 2003). According to Harcourt (2006), the success of profiling would depend on two factors.
Firstly, the detection and prevention of terrorist acts would depend, for a group
given, the identification of a stable trait correlated with a higher crime rate for the
targeted crime. Secondly, the deterrence and prevention of terrorist acts would be linked to the
response of different groups to the new measures and policies and their propensity to
adopt different forms of substitution.

68
Moreover, an inherent problem in the study of terrorism is the rarity of events. According to
Harcourt (2006), the probability of achieving tangible benefits from profiling arises in
a large measure of the frequency of the profiled event. The more frequent the attacks
the higher the level of terrorism, the more profiling will be likely to detect this kind of act:

Events of a certain rarity are however much more

difficult to predict, and consequently more difficult to detect in several ways.
First, it is extremely difficult to predict where, when, and how the offense
abnormal will occur. Then, the low frequency allows more time for
to develop measures to combat terrorism (Harcourt 2006, p. 12).

In Europe, data from the British Home Office confirms that the police have targeted...
Muslims since September 2001 in its fight against terrorism. On the other hand, out of a total of
21,577 interrogations and searches since that date, none resulted in a conviction for
a terrorist offense (Goldston, 2006). An investigative method likely to use the
Profiling is data extraction (data mining), that is to say the search, in a database
data, of people who have certain characteristics. An example of this use of
Data is the profiling operation (rasterfahndung) carried out by the German police at the end
from 2001 until the beginning of 2003 (Goldston, 2006). In this large-scale operation, the
the police has gathered several personal information from public and private databases
important on about 8.3 million people. The profiling carried out was based on the
characteristics of the members of the Hamburg cell, of which Mohammed Atta was a part, a
of the main hijackers of the September 11 attacks. No terrorist suspect has been able to
identified (Goldston, 2006). In May 2003, the European Union Network of Experts
Human Rights Independents warned that the proposed terrorist profiles presented
a major risk of discrimination. In their report, it is stated that:

[...] the establishment of these profiles for operational purposes may

only to be accepted in the presence of a fair and significant demonstration of
from a statistical point of view, relationships between these characteristics and risk of
terrorism, demonstration that had not been made until then (EU Network of
Independent Experts in Fundamental Rights, 2003; cited in Goldston, 2006,
p. 6).

According to this research group, even if someone were to develop a profile of

terrorist based on concrete and factual data, any profile that is partially based on the
race could not be valid given the prominence of physical appearance in the
human perception:

The social psychology of race and ethnicity indicates that,

Due to their visibility, these attributes are predisposed to receive more weight.
important in practice than the other elements of the profile, and thus distort the profile
(p. 16).

69
It may seem necessary to support the demonstration of the low predictive validity with an example.
race or religion with respect to terrorism. This conclusion indeed seems counterintuitive at
regarding the proportion of terrorist acts committed by Islamist organizations. This apparent
Contradiction arises from the frequent confusion, on a logical level, between two types of probabilities.
conditional. Let us therefore engage in an analytical exercise (illustrated by Islamist terrorism
only because it is the one that currently prevails in popular imagination). In 2006, the
Canada had approximately 783,700 citizens of Muslim faith. Now let's assume (in a way
purely fictitious and certainly exaggerated) that of these, 500 are terrorists. Furthermore, let's admit,
once again solely for illustrative purposes, that 90% of terrorist attacks in Canada have been the work
of Muslims and that this trend continues (which is not at all the case, none of the acts
terrorist acts committed on Canadian soil that have not yet been attributed to an Islamist group. Groups
anticastrists, Sikhs, Armenians, far-left, and the FLQ are responsible for the vast majority of these
attacks.

Let M be the proposition (individual X is Muslim) and T be the proposition (individual X is a terrorist). The perception
according to which the profiling of Muslims would be an effective counter-terrorism measure is based on confusion
between two conditional probabilities:

The probability that a terrorist is Muslim, P(M|T), is set here (exaggeratedly for reality.
Canadian) at 90%;
2. The probability that a Muslim is a terrorist, P(T|M), here obtained by the ratio 500/783,700,
so 0.06% (a minimal probability but already exaggerated).

The effectiveness of profiling relies on the assumption that the second probability, P(T|M), is sufficient.
raised to establish the relevance of monitoring Muslim citizens more closely. Here, this surveillance does not
would be justified in 0.06% of cases (thus a waste of time, energy, and money in 99.94% of cases)
(case), which explains the low predictive validity of this criterion. Note that this example does not address the
the problem of false positives and false negatives, illustrated however by the box on page 73.

5.6.3 Risk assessment of recurrence

Another application of predictive profiling would be the prevention of recidivism in individuals.

incarcerated pending release. A large part of the literature dealing with recidivism
particularly focuses on relapse rates, as well as behavioral and psychological indicators
and the criminal records of individuals who have previously committed offenses of a certain nature
sexual or particularly violent crimes (Barbaree, Seto, Langton, and Peacock, 2001; Côté,
2001; Proulx and Lussier, 2001; Hanson and Brussière, 1998; Quinsey, Harris, Rice and Lalumière,
1993; Furr, 1993; Harris, Rice and Quinsey, 1993; Harris, Rice and Cormier, 1991). This interest
is explained by the enormous implications of potential relapses (Proulx and Lussier, 2001;
Barbaree et al., 2001; Hanson and Brussière, 1998.

The prediction of violence by clinical psychiatrists proves to be difficult: Lidz, Mulvey and
Gardner (1993), for example, reports an overall success rate of 53% over a period of six
months. As for predicting violence in women, clinicians tended to underestimate it.
estimating the frequency and their performance was not significantly superior to a prediction
by chance. These statistics already represent an improvement compared to those recorded in the

70
the sixties and seventies, which place the success rate of clinicians at best around
35% (Dolan et Doyle, 2000; Monahan, 1996). The assessment of the risk of reoffending is therefore
gradually shifted from a clinical approach to an actuarial approach, particularly due to
of the demonstrated superiority of the latter (Ægisdóttir, White, Spengler, Maugherman,
Anderson, Cook, Nichols, Lampropoulos, Walker, Cohen and Rush, 2006; Monahan, 1996; Parent,
Guay and Knight, 2008), even if it might turn out to be modest compared to some
self-reported measures (Walters, 2006). Also, the applications of various actuarial measures
among others the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism
risk of sexual recidivism), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide
with sex offenders), the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide
violence), the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised and the Static-99) often used
when assessing the risk of recidivism among incarcerated individuals, who sometimes present
personality disorders, mental health issues, and severe psychopathologies have been assessed by
several authors in recent years.

[Link] The frequency of recidivism

Recidivism rates vary significantly from one study to another, ranging from very low to very
elevated (Bartosh, Garby, Lewis and Gray, 2003). These differences may be partially caused
by the range of crimes and offenses included in the research, as well as the measures for recidivism
used by the authors. Thus, some research specifically focuses on relapses in
the same category as the crime for which the individual was convicted, while others
also include new types of offenses. Furthermore, some studies use
conservative measures against recidivism, such as a new conviction appearing in the
police documents, while others use more flexible cues, such as instances
of self-reported recidivism and offenses for which the individual has not received a new
conviction.

As for the sexual recidivism rates of different types of sexual offenders, Hanson and
Brussière (1998) reports an average recurrence rate of 13.4% for a follow-up period of
four to five years in their meta-analysis, which includes data on 23,393 sexual offenders.
More specifically, this rate corresponds to 18.9% for 1,839 rapists and 12.7% for 9,603.
child sexual offenders. As for the rate of non-sexual violent recidivism among offenders
sexual, these authors report a rate of 12.2%, although significant differences are
observed between rapists and child sexual offenders (22.1% vs. 9.9%, respectively).
If recidivism is defined as any new offense, this percentage rises to a
average rate of 36.9% (36.3% among child sexual offenders and 46.2% among rapists,
respectively). Generally speaking, Harris and Rice (2007) argue that if a cohort
is followed for a long enough time (more than fifteen years), the recidivism rate
sexual will exceed 30%.

Furthermore, in their review of writings, Proulx and Lussier (2001) report a recidivism rate
average of 20.4% among child sex offenders (range from 4% to 38% according to seventeen
studies). Regarding the fluctuations observed in the potential risk of relapse, a study of
Hanson, Steffy and Gauthier (1993) show that the rate of recidivism among sexual offenders
of children was 5.2% during the first six years of follow-up and decreases to about 1.8% per
year for the next 20 years.

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Sexual offenders against women show a higher recidivism rate than offenders.
child sexual offenders (Quinsey, Rice and Harris, 1995; Hanson and Brussière, 1998). The recidivism rate
means for sexual aggressors against women reported by Quinsey et al. (1995) is
22.8%. These authors report a range of 10% to 36% based on seven studies. However, let us note
that the level of impulsivity demonstrated by the aggressor seems to influence this risk of relapse:
according to Prentky, Knight, Lee and Cerce (1995) inmates showing a high level
of impulsivity are three times more likely to relapse than those not classified as
impulsive. These authors report that 35% of impulsive sexual offenders reoffend (vs 13%
not very impulsive attackers.

Several researchers have also studied the recidivism rates of individuals who have previously
committed violent crimes. For example, a study conducted by Hanson, Scott, and Steffy (1995)
focused on the recidivism rates among individuals who have committed sexual offenses and
of individuals who have been accused of violent crimes. They report that 83.2% of individuals
having committed non-sexual crimes and 61.8% of individuals having committed sexual offenses
children were found guilty of a new crime during a follow-up conducted from fifteen to
thirty years after their release. These two groups tend to reoffend with the same type
of the act that led to their previous incarceration. This result is consistent with the observation of
Hanson and Brussière (1998) state that individuals who commit non-sexual crimes
do not tend to reoffend with sexual offenses, although sexual offenders have
tendency to also commit other types of offenses.

An interest in the factors surrounding recidivism among young offenders seems to have
emerges in the scientific literature in recent years. A meta-analysis focusing on
general recidivism among young offenders yields an average recidivism rate of
48% during an average follow-up period of 45 months (Cottle, Lee, and Heilbrun, 2001). A study
led by Catchpole and Gretton (2003) reveals violent recidivism rates of 23% among the
young people.

Finally, instances of recidivism among individuals with severe psychological disorders.

have also been of interest to some researchers (Harris, Rice, and Cormier,
1991; Harris, Rice and Quinsey, 1993; Côté, 2001). According to a study conducted by Harris, Rice and
Cormier (1991), 40% of the studied incarcerated population would have reoffended with a new
violent offense during a ten-year monitoring period. However, when they consider
only incarcerated individuals with severe psychopathologies (such as
which identified by the PCL-R), this rate rises to 77%.

[Link] The factors related to recidivism

Two types of variables can be used to predict recidivism: static factors

(which do not change, such as criminal records) and dynamic factors (which can
changer). Among the dynamic factors, we find stable dynamic factors which
may fluctuate slightly, although very little, like cognitive distortions and preferences
sexual, and acute dynamic factors, which can change rapidly, such as states
emotional and access to a victim (Proulx and Lussier, 2001).

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According to Hanson and Brussière (1998), the best predictors of sexual recidivism are the
deviant sexual preferences assessed phallometrically, the characteristics of the offenses
previous sexual offenses, premature termination of treatment, and a criminal lifestyle (such as offenses
previous sexual offenses, the assault of unknown victims by the offender, the absence of family ties
with the victim, the early age of the first sexual offense, the preference for male victims and the nature
varied sexual crimes). Among the demographic variables examined in the meta-
Only age and marital status have been linked, albeit modestly, to recidivism.
sexual. Note that despite the links reported by Hanson and Brussière (1998) between these various
factors and the risk of recurrence, the reported correlations are typically not high. The
authors attribute these modest correlations to the low base rates of recidivism being reported
in several studies under investigation.

Regarding violent relapses, the varied nature of sexual offenses and the characteristics
psychological factors (such as antisocial personality or psychopathy) have been linked to recidivism
(Hanson and Brussière, 1998). Among demographic variables, the trends replicate.
since age and marital status also seem to predict non-sexual violent recidivism.
It should be noted that rapists are more likely to reoffend with violent crimes.
sexual offenders than child sexual abusers.

Furthermore, Harris, Rice, and Cormier (1991) highlight factors related to childhood, to
from the individual to the offense for which he was incarcerated, as well as factors related to
the institution, like the treatment program, in predicting non-violent recidivism
sexual. The authors emphasize, however, that the score on the PCL-R provides an indicator of recidivism.
as effective as the sum of all these variables.

Regarding general recidivism, Hanson and Brussière (1998) include in their definition the
presence of any new offense or crime. The best indicators of general recidivism
seem to be the criminal records of the individual (which corresponds to Wood's finding,
2006), antisocial personality and the presence of psychopathology. The results of Gendreau,
Goggin and Little (1996) also highlight the link between these factors and the risk of recidivism.
For their part, Norko and Baranoski (2007) observe a link between certain psychopathologies and
the prediction of recidivism, although this link is modest. In general, sexual offenders
present a moderately higher risk of recurrence if they choose to end
prematurely to their treatment. The work of Hepburn and Albonetti (1994), which evaluates the
recidivism among drug traffickers also supports the importance of programs
of treatment in relapse prevention. Finally, the same demographic factors related to
sexual and violent recidivism (among other factors, the age and marital status of the individual) are taken into account
light in the prediction of general recidivism.

As for the factors related to recidivism among young offenders, these remain
less well-known and the research results seem to diverge somewhat. First,
certain risk factors observed among adult populations, such as criminal records,
seem to replicate among young people (Catchpole and Gretton, 2003). A study conducted by
Stoolmiller and Blechman (2005) clearly highlighted the use and abuse of substances.
illicit in predicting recidivism in youth. On the other hand, the study by Cottle, Lee and
Heilbrun (2001) seems to indicate that only the abuse of illegal substances, and not their use.
irregular, would be an indicator of recidivism. For their part, Catchpole and Gretton (2003)

73
confirm the link between regular drug use and recidivism in this area
population. Then, if the presence of severe pathology seems to be linked to the recurrence
general among adults, the results are mixed among the young. Catchpole and Gretton
(2003) noted a link between pathology and recidivism. However, a meta-analysis indicates
that this trend does not seem to be generally replicated among young people (Cottle, Lee and
Heilbrun, 2001). A hypothesis that could explain this result would be the typically number
restricted to diagnoses of severe pathologies reported before adulthood.

[Link] The measures for assessing the risk of recurrence

Various actuarial measures are frequently cited in the assessment of recidivism risk.
among incarcerated populations, for example: the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense
Recidivism (RRASOR) (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism)
Checklist - Revised (PCL-R), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal
Guide (SORAG) (Sex Offender Risk Assessment Guide), the Minnesota Sex
Offender Screening Tool – Revised (MnSOST-R)
(Violence Risk Assessment Guide), theStatic-99, theStatic-2002, theRisk Matrix 2000
(RM2000) and the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) (Risk assessment scale for violence).
Although the majority of these measures have been designed over the last twenty years with the aim
to assist clinicians working with sexual offenders, Barbaree, Seto, Langton and
Peacock (2001) notes that the validity of these instruments often extends to multiple groups.
of attackers.

First, the RRASOR includes four items, which makes its administration easy, efficient, and low
bulky (Bartosh, Garby, Lewis and Gray, 2003), and the results obtained can vary from 0 to
5. Considering a ten-year follow-up period, a score of 0 underlies a probability of
recidivism of 6.5% while those with a score of 5 have a recidivism probability of 73.4%.
This scale was developed from various samples of sexual offenders. In their
study, Barbaree, Seto, Langton and Peacock (2001) found that the RRASOR was a good
indicator of the risk of sexual, violent, and general recidivism. Furthermore, Bartosh et al. (2003)
It was noted that this scale was particularly useful for predicting the forms of relapse.
violent and general and moderately useful for predicting sexual recidivism in the
child aggressors. On the other hand, Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008), in their study of 548
sexual aggressors find that the RRASOR does not allow for predicting any type of recidivism
(sexual, violent or non-violent sexual crimes without contact with the victim, such as the
voyeurism or exhibitionism) significantly over a period of five years among the
female offenders. Among child offenders, the RRASOR would only predict recidivism.
sexual. These authors conclude that the predictive validity of this instrument is generally
marginal. The greatest limitation of the RRASOR would be that this measure is
entirely composed of static factors and therefore does not allow for the possibility of evaluating the
Possible changes in the risk of relapse, for example, following a treatment
clinic (Proulx and Lussier, 2001).

The PCL-R includes semi-structured interviews with the patient as well as information drawn from
from his criminal record. The score on the PCL-R is determined by the absence, by the indication
some signs or symptoms that suggest the possible presence of a trait, but some
insufficient information preventing the determination of whether there is a true presence of it

74
and by the presence of various traits, such as impulsivity and certain components of the criminal record,
and is frequently amalgamated with other actuarial measures, such as the VRAG. In the study of
Barbaree et al. (2003), the PCL-R has managed to predict violent and general recidivism, but not
sexual recidivism. In accordance with this result, Harris, Rice, and Cormier (1991) report
a moderate correlation between the PCL-R and violent recidivism. Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008),
for their part, observe that the PCL-R would constitute the best instrument (among the eight
presented here) to predict sexual recidivism and violent recidivism among offenders
women. It would also significantly predict non-violent recidivism among perpetrators of
women as well as sexual recidivism and non-violent recidivism among child offenders. Its
predictive validity would oscillate from marginal to modest.

Moreover, the VRAG contains twelve items, including the score obtained on the PCL-R. The scores
can vary from -26 to 38, according to which individuals are assigned an ordinal score of 1 to
9, where each step represents a 5% increase in the risk of violent recidivism in a
population where the average recidivism rate is 31% over a seven-year follow-up period.
The VRAG is able to predict violent, sexual, and general recidivism according to Barbaree et al.
(2001). According to Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008), the VRAG would significantly predict recidivism.
violent and non-violent among female aggressors, but not sexual recidivism. Among the
child offenders, the VRAG would predict sexual recidivism and would be the best tool for
predict non-violent recidivism. However, he would not predict violent recidivism in this clientele. His
predictive validity would be considered marginal. However, these results remain
lower than the values reported by Harris and Rice (2007), which describe a predictive validity
at least modest. Finally, a study seems to indicate that the VRAG would prove to be an instrument
less effective when employed with schizophrenic patients or inmates (Grann, Belfrage and
Tengström, 2000).

As for the SORAG, this scale includes fourteen items (ten being shared with the VRAG)
and the results obtained can vary from 1 to 9. For a follow-up period of ten years, the
sexual offenders scoring 1 show a 9% recidivism probability while
Proulx and Lussier (2001) report that the offenders who scored 9 all had
recidivism. Barbaree et al. (2003) report in their study that the SORAG seems to predict the
relapses that are both sexual, violent, and general. Furthermore, Bartosh et al. (2003) confirm
that the SORAG proves useful for predicting all these forms of recurrence, both in
child sexual aggressors, rapists, and sexual aggressors who have not had contact
physical with their victims (such as voyeurs, for example). Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008), from
their side indicate that the SORAG would significantly predict sexual, violent, and
non-violent among women aggressors, as well as sexual and non-violent recidivism among
child predators (but not violent recidivism). However, its predictive validity
would generally turn out to be marginal. The SORAG measures both static and dynamic variables.
dynamics.

LeStatic-99 was designed for adult males who have committed at least one sexual offense.
and includes ten items, including the four items of the RRASOR. The Static-99 has been able to predict recidivism.
violent, sexual, and general (Barbaree et al. 2001). On the other hand, the Static-99 has managed to
predicting sexual, violent, and general recidivism among child sexual offenders,
rapists and sex offenders without physical contact with their victims (Bartosh et al.,
2003). In the study by Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008), this instrument receives the best

75
results for predicting sexual recidivism in child offenders and predicted
also the non-violent recidivism for this clientele (but not violent recidivism). By
elsewhere, it would also significantly predict sexual, violent, and non-violent recidivism among the
female aggressors. Its predictive validity would vary from marginal to modest depending on the type.
of offense.

LeStatic-2002 is an attempt to improve upon Static-99. It addresses the same

customers than the latter, this new version includes fourteen items. The study by Parent, Guay and
Knight (2008) demonstrates that this instrument significantly predicts recidivism.
sexual, violent and non-violent among female offenders, as well as sexual recidivism and
non-violent among child aggressors. Generally speaking, however, this new version
would be slightly less effective than the Static-99. Its predictive validity would generally
marginal.

The MnSOST-R includes sixteen items that focus on the past, as well as on the institutionalization of
patient. The instrument allows for classifying the detainee according to an ascending risk scale.
Recurrence from 1 to 6. Each interval presents an increase in the risk of 5%, according to a rate
recidivism rate of 35% for a follow-up period of about six years (Barbaree et al.)
2001). Barbaree et al. (2001) found that the MnSOST-R could effectively predict the
violent and general recidivism, but not sexual (which is what the scale was actually supposed to measure
predict). However, the authors explain this result by the divergent nature of the measurement of
sexual recidivism that was used in their study. The results of Bartosh et al. (2003)
somewhat reflect those of Barbaree et al. (2001), according to which the MnSOST-R was able to predict
general and violent recidivism, but only moderately sexual recidivism
of child sexual abusers. For their part, Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008) observe that this
the instrument would significantly predict sexual, violent, and non-violent recidivism equally
among the aggressors of women than of children. However, its predictive validity would be marginal.

The RM2000 targets adult men convicted of at least one sexual offense and uses the
information available in the offender's file. This instrument is divided into two sub-
scales, the RMS and the RMV, aiming respectively at predicting sexual recidivism and
violent. The RM2000 (or RMC) combines the scores of these two instruments. During their
Research by Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008) confirmed the ability of the RMS to predict recidivism.
sexual, both among child and women aggressors. This portion of the RM2000
would demonstrate a predictive validity ranging from marginal to modest for the prediction of the
sexual recidivism and would also predict non-violent recidivism in both clienteles but in a way
marginal. For its part, the RMV would be the best instrument to predict recurrence.
violent and non-violent among aggressors of women (modest predictive validity) as well as
for the prediction of violent recidivism in child offenders (predictive validity
marginal). It would also predict non-violent recidivism in child offenders (validity.
predictive marginal.

Finally, the SVR-20 is based on a structured clinical judgment, guided by twenty items.
covering three areas, namely psychosocial adaptation, sexual offenses, and projects.
In the study by Parent, Guay, and Knight (2008), the SVR-20 was able to predict
significantly the sexual recidivism, violent recidivism, and non-violent recidivism among
female aggressors. Among child aggressors, only sexual recidivism and recidivism

76
non-violent could be predicted. The predictive validity of this instrument would be marginal, well
that it includes both static and dynamic variables.

The results of the studies mentioned above suggest the importance of monitoring factors simultaneously.
stable and sharp dynamics in the effectiveness of predicting recurrence. Thus, several
researchers such as Webster, Hucker and Bloom (2002), Norko and Baranoski (2007) and Gendreau,
Goggin and Little (1996) reflect the importance of including both dynamic and
stable in the assessment of the risk of recurrence. On the other hand, actuarial measures of the risk of
recidivism rarely includes dynamic variables and focuses more on
unchangeable factors such as the age of the detainee and the offenses committed previously. The latter
the variable nevertheless remains the best indicator of the risk of recurrence.

Psychopathy seems to predict recidivism in sexual offenders (adults or adolescents)

and reinforces the idea that it could contribute to the act being carried out (Gretton, McBride,
Hare, O’Shaughnessy and Kumka, 2001; Parent, Guay and Knight, 2008). Gretton, McBride, Hare,
O'Shaughnessy and Kumka (2001) note that [TRANSLATION] "the strong association between the
psychopathy and crime is a natural consequence of the characteristics
interpersonal, emotional, and behavioral factors that define the disorder" (p. 428). Schetky
2002 adds that [TRANSLATION] "the neurological deficiency is likely to be associated with the
persistent violence, and several studies show that an out of proportion percentage of
recidivists have been diagnosed as having functional disorders
cerebral » (p. 235).

Overall, it remains that the predictive validity of these instruments is relatively low.
and has been capped for several years: at best, a randomly chosen repeat offender has between 70% and
75% probability of having achieved a higher score on an actuarial instrument than a non-
recidivist, also randomly selected (Parent, Guay, and Knight, 2008). Grann and
Långström (2007) suggests, for their part, that the hypothesis that predictive validity
the actuarial instruments could be enhanced by weighting the variables taken into account
does not seem to want to be empirically confirmed. Schetky (2002) also notes that
clinicians have little success in predicting long-term violence and adds that
Psychiatrists are often asked by the courts or others to
predict violence when in fact they are poorly equipped to do so

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[Link]. Limits of studies addressing recidivism

Certain methodological limitations inherent in studies assessing risk of

recidivism deserve to be addressed here. First, the rates of recidivism from which these
measures assessed vary from one study to another. These variations seem to be caused by
three main factors: 1) the length of the follow-up period (Cottle, Lee and Heilbrun, 2001; Harris
and Rice, 2007), 2) the definition of recidivism advocated by researchers and 3) the inclusion or not
forms of recidivism not related to the initial conviction. More specifically,
some authors conservatively use a new condemnation that appears in the
criminal records of individuals as a definition of recidivism. However, this definition
excludes a significant number of recidivism cases since, according to Proulx and Lussier (2001),
About 10% of sexual assaults are reported to the police, and among these, only the
half will lead to a new conviction. On the other hand, researchers who employ
unofficial sources (such as self-disclosures) in order to obtain an abundance of data in
frequently highlight the shortcomings (Barbaree et al., 2001). In addition, some researchers
specifically focus on instances of recidivism related to the type of crime that prompted
the incarceration of the individual (such as the sexual assaults committed against children).
such studies will report relapse rates that are statistically lower than the
studies that include any form of new offense in their assessment of recidivism. However, a study
de Sjöstedt, Långström, Sturidsson et Grann (2004) suggests that sexual offenders
could be twice as likely to reoffend with a non-sexual offense than with
a sexual crime. Then, it would be important to specify that these studies do not focus on
necessarily on the issues most likely to recur since the latter will be
generally held in prison longer.

Finally, considering that the population of men incarcerated for violent or sexual crimes is
significantly higher than the incarcerated female population, it is not surprising to
noted that almost all studies on the risk of recurrence have used
entirely male samples. To address this gap, Bonta, Pang, and Wallace-Capreta
(1995) conducted a study aimed at exploring the factors related to recidivism.
of a population of incarcerated women. It is interesting to note that, aside from
static variables, the factors associated with the risk of recurrence typically observed in
men do not seem to replicate in women (Bonta et al., 1995). Other studies
are necessary in order to better understand the factors related to the risk of recurrence in the population
feminine.

A current trend seems to be leaning towards an approach that would combine clinical methods and
actuarial, in order to take into account the specific elements related to a given individual's case in addition to
take into account the statistical risk factors (Dolan and Doyle, 2000; Webster, Hucker and
Bloom, 2002). However, this blend is not unanimously accepted: some authors consider the
two approaches as mutually exclusive while the validity of the clinical approach remains
to demonstrate (Harris and Rice, 2007).

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5.6.4 Prevention of shootings in schools

Since the late 1990s, we have noted an increasing concern for the
phenomenon of school shootings. This concern is particularly expressed in the
professional journals in education, school psychology, and school administration
The impact of these
events are such that some educational institutions do not hesitate to consider
the adoption of measures that would require the renunciation of certain rights and freedoms
yet guaranteed at the constitutional level: [TRANSLATION] "[…] we pay a heavy price
to erase the past and an even heavier price to respect civil liberties, which we
prevent someone from being immobilized who is only writing scary stories or sending
strange emails" (Newman, 2007).

Among the preventive measures mentioned, we find the use of prospective profiling which
target the identification of individuals at risk of engaging in a school shooting and
the assessment of the risk of acting out, based on a list of presumed characteristics
relatively common among the authors of such acts in the past (Lumsden, 2000; Reddy,
Borum, Vossekuil, Fein, Berglund and Modzeleski, 2000.

[Link] School shootings: state of the situation

From 1974 to 2000, the United States faced a total of 37 school shootings or
university-related incidents that resulted in a total of 182 victims. These incidents, which affected 26 states, have
involving 41 shooters (Vossekuil, Reddy, and Fein, 2000). In Canada, by grouping the shootings
incidents in schools and universities, we count seven cases since 1975.
Compared to other types of risks faced by schoolchildren and students, that one
the risk of being a victim of a mad shooter remains minimal (Mulvey and Cauffman, 2001), which leads one to say that
Reddy and his colleagues (2000) that "people seem to fear homicides more
which occur in school environments since statistically speaking, these events are so rare
that the epidemic concerns seemed misplaced" (p. 6).

Vossekuil, Reddy, and Fein (2000) studied the cases that occurred in the United States and arrived at
certain observations:

• All these crimes were committed by boys or young men;

• The targets included other students, administrators, teachers, or others.
staff members;
• In more than two-thirds of cases, the attack resulted in at least one victim;
• The most commonly used weapons were handguns, rifles, or
carbines;
• More than half of the attacks occurred during school hours;
• School shootings are rarely impulsive: more than half of the attackers had
developed the idea at least two weeks before taking action and had planned their
action at least two days before executing it;

79
 • Revenge was the motive for more than half of the aggressors while two out of
three had more than one reason;
• More than three out of four attackers were known to harbor animosity towards
their targets at the moment they took action. Several had shared this
animosity with other people;
• In more than three out of four cases, the attacker had shared their plan with someone.
Although several people were warned, the project was hardly ever carried out.
to the attention of adults or competent authorities;
• If the majority of the attackers had already handled firearms and had access to them, the
most did not show any fascination towards them;
• Half of the attacks lasted less than twenty minutes and ended
before the arrival of the police forces;
• In several cases, the fact that the attackers were victims of bullying and
bullying at school played an important role in their decision to move to
the act;
• Ultimately, in almost all cases, the aggressor had demonstrated attitudes or
behaviors before the attack that raised concern among those around him (others
students or pupils, school staff, police officers, etc.

The striking aspect of this portrait remains the fact that the school shooting is not an event.
sudden or spontaneous, on the contrary it is planned, that the aggressor even frequently shares
his criminal project with the people around him and, finally, that behavioral clues
generally raise concerns among the shooter's surroundings before he takes action.
Consequently, school shootings are a predictable event in a
certain measures can potentially prevent it.

[Link] Prospective Profiling in the School Environment

The potentially predictable nature of the school shooting led to the use of two
approaches, one focused on the individual (prospective profiling) and the other on factual elements
(risk assessment). The first approach will be addressed in this section while the second
will be addressed briefly a little later.

Prospective profiling involves comparing the characteristics of a given individual.

perceived as possibly threatening and a profile established based on the study, generally
statistics, criminals who committed the same offense in the past. In practice, this
the operation takes place, in the school environment, based on lists of criteria, instruments
psychometric or even software based on the actuarial analysis of a limited number of
criteria (Reddy et al., 2000). Many inventories of "risk factors" have thus been
published, for example by Chandras (2001), Juhnke, Charkow, Jordan, Curtis, Liles, Gmutza and
Adams (1999), O'Toole (2000) as well as Trump (2000). However, as rightly stated
noted Fey (2000), these lists have sometimes significant divergences, which raises the
problem of choosing the one that would be the most suitable. This variability also suggests that it
There would be no consensus on the 'profile' of the lone shooter.

80
[Link] Critiques of predictive profiling

This type of profiling, which is carried out based on lists of criteria, instruments
psychometric or software, is almost universally criticized due to the many
problems it poses, both legally (which we will address later) and in terms of its
validity.

First, despite the numerous lists of criteria supposedly allowing to identify the shooters
before they take action, scientific circles agree that there is no
currently a reliable profile of the shooter (Burns, Dean and Jacob-Timm, 2001; Lumsden, 2000;
O'Toole, 2000; Reddy et al., 2000; Vossekuil, Reddy and Fein, 2000). O'Toole (2000), in a
document prepared by the FBI's Critical Incident Response Group states that it [TRANSLATION]
There is currently no research that has identified traits and characteristics that
allows to reliably distinguish school shooters from other students
(p. 3).

Then, due to the extremely small number of people who will commit such an act (base
rate), the risks of error (false positives and false negatives) are very high (Juvonen, 2001):
There are severe restrictions on the capacity of any predictive strategy (even
if it is reasonably accurate) to target true positives without necessarily targeting a large
number of false positives" (Mulvey and Cauffman, 2001, p. 798).

For demonstration purposes, let's take a concrete example:

Let's try to identify the future school shooters in a school with 5,000 students. Let's assume that we
We have a list of criteria that allows us to correctly identify 90% of future shooters (true positives).
and 99% of the innocent (true negatives), which results in an excessively high performance for such
instrument. Let’s also assume that the targeted school has 10 future crazy shooters, again, a number
exaggeratedly large.

Our instrument allows us to identify 9 out of 10 shooters, which is good, but only one shooter is
sufficient to cause real damage. Moreover, among the 4,990 innocents, our
the instrument identifies 1% of false positives, that is, 50 students.

So, 59 students in total will be identified as at risk and will require an intervention.
the establishment, with all the consequences that entails. However, of these 59 students, only 9 (18%)
constitute a genuine threat while the other 50 (82%) will be wrongly labeled (and it is
impossible to determine which ones). Above all, a killer remains unidentified, which means that the
the threat is still not eliminated. Let us remember that this example constitutes an excessively
optimistic about the effectiveness of predictive profiling...

Note that, if in the example above we have fixed the instrument's efficiency rates
used, in reality, there is no data on the validity and effectiveness of the instruments of
prospective profiling (Reddy et al., 2000).

Then, this approach is susceptible to biases of perception and judgment (Kahneman and
Frederick, 2002; Reddy et al., 2000) and neglects to take into account environmental factors

81
(risk and protective factors) in its assessment of the threat (Mulvey and Cauffman,
2001).

Therefore, as summarized by Reddy and his colleagues (2000): "the use of profiles is not
not effective and carries a significant risk of false positives [...]. It poses a risk in
terms of prejudice and it has been harshly criticized for its potential to stigmatize the
students and the deprivation of their civil liberties" (p. 24). Mulvey and Cauffman (2001) add
In reality, however, prediction is largely a futile task.
The blurry nature of categories, the reference rate of predicted behavior, and the period
during which the prediction applies always compromises any identification mechanism
child killers." (p. 800).

It follows that, from a strictly theoretical point of view, the authors agree that
the risks of predictive profiling are enormous while its potential is, at best, limited.
Empirically, no data related to the prediction of this type of crime seems to exist.
available.

[Link] Legal considerations

At the legal level, Bailey (2001) argues that as long as profiling is used solely for purposes
of investigation (questioning, digging) and in compliance with legal requirements regarding
formation of reasonable suspicions, it could constitute a valid tool. However, in the case of the
prospective profiling, [TRANSLATION] "The most important objection from a legal standpoint
lies in the fact that it somewhat assumes that young people are deprived of certain rights or
possibilities based on their potential to commit violent or criminal acts, rather
depending on the act or the reprehensible behavior itself" (p. 145). In the eyes of the
criminal law, due to the presumption of innocence that applies to any individual, such a
this approach is unacceptable, especially to the extent that the profiling criteria are currently
divergent from one source to another and that the validity of diagnostic instruments remains to
empirically demonstrate. At most, the prospective diagnosis seems likely to contribute
to target the offer of assessments and psychological services, without any coercive power however.

[Link] Risk assessment

In the United States, both the FBI and the Secret Service frequently face tasks
similar to school shooting prevention (for example, preventing
assassination attempts on the person of the president). However, these agencies operate with a logic
different from that of prospective profiling: they rather adopt the approach of evaluation of
risk (threat assessment) (O’Toole, 2000; Reddy et al., 2000).

Unlike profiling that is focused on assessing the individual, risk assessment

is looking into the evaluation of the facts that suggest the existence of a potential threat.
This means that the evaluation process begins after a threat has been identified.
the threat may consist, initially, simply in the concern of a staff member
of a school, or even of a student, towards the behaviors of another individual. This
concern is then communicated to a person or a committee responsible for evaluating it
content and urgency. This implies that measures have been put in place to ensure

82
the assessment of threats and their appropriate follow-up if necessary. As few schools have
expertise in violence risk assessment, a close collaboration with the
Police forces are essential.

This approach, however, goes beyond the mandate of this report, which is focused on examining the effectiveness of
profiling. Nevertheless, the reader eager to learn more about the application of
the evaluation of risk in a school context may refer notably to The School Shooter: A
Threat Assessment Perspective (O'Toole, 2000).

5.7 Conclusions
5.7.1 Summary

In all the studied areas, the alleged effectiveness of prospecting profiling does not receive
practically no empirical support. Moreover, the actuarial approach, based on assessment
risk (threat assessment) now seems to be at the forefront.
the approach adopted by the Canada Border Services Agency, the Canadian Service of
security information and parole boards. There does not seem to be
to have an exception to the rule that the actuarial approach will prove more effective than a
profiling plus heuristic, even if the use of a profile seems to have yielded results
probants. As for racial profiling, in the majority of cases, no statistical link could be found.
established convincingly between an ethnic group and a given form of crime. It
follows from this absence of statistical link that, at least theoretically, ethnic origin
should have only a marginal weight, if any, in the algorithm for calculating the level of risk
actuarial instruments.

Profiling based, in whole or in part, on sociodemographic characteristics proves to be

particularly sensitive to various forms of substitution, which consists, for organizations
criminals, to alter the profile of their agents. This scheme has particularly been applied with
success by terrorist organizations (for example, the Tamil Tigers chose a woman
to assassinate Rajiv Gandhi in a suicide bombing in 1991). It is imperative to
realize that some risks of predictive profiling also apply to the approach
actuarial. Thus, if the risk factors are made public or easily deduced, the danger of the
substitution remains. Furthermore, even the actuarial approach is of no help in preventing
a highly improbable event (as illustrated in particular by the popular science book of
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2007). From there
the importance of having continuous access to credible and relevant information sources,
which enable 1) better calibration of actuarial instruments and 2) to maximize the chances
that a specific event, even unlikely, can be prevented to the extent that agencies in
they would have gotten wind. The sharing of information between the security agencies follows as a corollary.

The review of scientific writings has therefore not allowed us to legitimize the practice of
prospective profiling in scientific, legal, and moral terms, nor even the assessment of risk for
statistically rare events. However, the actuarial method seems to have yielded
results, albeit modest, in the prevention of drug trafficking at the borders and the

83
prediction of recidivism, two areas where offenses are sufficiently numerous to
allow the compilation of statistics and where the information is quite easily available, especially
in the case of individuals already incarcerated. In such a context, we can only urge the
agencies to be cautious about the weight and place to give to these methods in the case of
crimes with low frequency.

5.7.2 Limits

The limitations relating to this part of our research are significant. If it has been possible
to study numerous empirical research studies on racial profiling in the context of
the fight against drugs and on the prevention of recidivism of sexual or violent offenders,
No empirical data really allows us to assess the effectiveness of profiling.
or actuarial methods to combat school shootings and terrorism. Seen
the relative rarity of this type of event and the difficulty of obtaining credible information from
the share of incarcerated terrorists, it is even difficult to imagine a research quote that
would allow for a satisfactory answer to this question. Moreover, the organizations
Those responsible for preventing terrorism do not seem inclined to share information.

5.7.3 Recommendations

Agencies should continue to use actuarial methods for assessment of

risk rather than profiling or clinical judgment.

To optimize risk assessment, particularly regarding terrorism, it is

crucial that agencies have credible, up-to-date, and relevant information. The means
should be implemented to allow intelligence services to obtain these
information, in Canada as abroad, in compliance with the Constitution and the law
international.

The circulation of information between agencies, particularly the RCMP, CSIS, and CBSA,
should be favored and optimized.

Criteria for the yields of various actuarial tools used by agencies should
should be formulated. The actual effectiveness of the instruments should be evaluated periodically (which
joins a recommendation from the 2007 report of the Auditor General S. Fraser regarding
the CBSA).

Ethical standards should be established to guide the practice of evaluation.

risk from an actuarial perspective.

84
6. Judgment in situations of uncertainty
6.1 Definitions

A decision-making heuristic is, in a way, a cognitive shortcut for evaluation.

quickly a situation: [TRANSLATION] 'The term decision-making heuristic refers to a
strategy, whether deliberate or not, based on a natural assessment with the aim of
produce an estimate or a prediction" (Tversky and Kahneman 2002, p. 20). This theory
particularly takes into account the limited analytical capacities of the human brain as well as the
constraints, such as time, in which the individual sometimes has to make decisions.
Gigerenzer and Todd (1999) postulate two types of heuristic reasoning, namely the
satisfice and fast and frugal heuristics
heuristics), which admit that the cognitive abilities of human beings are limited. The
satisfaction assumes that, although the individual seeks to make their decisions with the help of the most
large number of possible resources, the cognitive capacities of human beings are limited and the
the environmental structure in which it must actually operate turns out to be restrictive.
Therefore, the individual must apply approximate methods in order to achieve
appropriate decisions in real situations. Practical decision-making heuristics, for their part,
suppose that the individual has not only a time frame, knowledge and
limited cognitive abilities but that he seeks to reach the best decision according to a
frugal access to these resources. Effective decision-making heuristics benefit from the
the way information is structured in the individual's environment, which facilitates choice
the best decision in a given situation. Gigerenzer and Todd (1999) maintain that
heuristics, as opposed to purely analytical or rational models, reflect
more about how people generally operate in real decision-making situations.

These heuristics, however, lead to predictable biases. Among the best-documented biases,
we find the representativeness bias, weighting biases, and availability bias
cognitive and mental contamination. The representativeness bias constitutes [...]
an assessment of the level of correspondence between a sample and a population, a case
particular and a category, an act and an actor, or more generally, between a result and a
model" (Tversky and Kahneman 2002, p. 22, our emphasis). This type of bias explains, by
For example, why do people often tend to associate certain types of individuals with certain
acts and this, regardless of real probabilities. The weighting biases, as for
[...] occur when the judge gives too much or too little weight
weak to the indices they have" (Kahneman and Frederick 2002, p. 53). These biases can be
observed when an individual attributes an exaggerated weight to certain prominent characteristics, the
Race for example, although they have little actual impact on the outcome of the prediction.
The cognitive availability bias, for its part, assumes that [TRANSLATION] " [...] the availability
cognitive constitutes one of the foundations of assessing the probability of an uncertain outcome, to
knowing the ease with which this result can be described or interpreted" (Sherman, Cialdini,
Schwartzman and Reynolds 2002, p. 98). Thus, the probability of occurrence of certain
phenomena would often be estimated heuristically, not based on their actual frequency
but rather according to the ease with which the evaluator can recall instances of this phenomenon.
Finally, the bias of mental contamination involves [TRANSLATION] "... a mental process

85
unconscious or uncontrollable which leads to judgments, emotions, or behaviors
"undesired" (Chapman and Johnson 2002, p. 185). This bias occurs when a person integrates
in their judgment, consciously or unconsciously, information that is not relevant to the evaluation
of the situation.

6.2 The two cognitive systems

Where do these biases come from? Proponents of decision heuristics theory suggest
the hypothesis of a dual cognitive system: intuitive on one hand, rational on the other (Kahneman and
Frederick, 2002). As in-depth analysis of a situation constitutes a cognitive task.
time- and energy-consuming, [TRANSLATION] "[...] judgments are generally the product
of unconscious systems that operate very quickly, based on limited demonstration and a
systematically, and then pass on their hasty approximations to our
conscience, which adjusts them slowly and deliberately" (Gilbert 2002, p. 167).

From an evolutionary perspective, this hypothesis makes sense: it is likely that the brain
humans had to develop based on situations where the speed of decision was important
more than its analytical precision. Insofar as the heuristic system provides
regularly optimal approximations within a cost-benefit logic, it remains
useful in many situations. However, biases appear when this system provides
an estimation that is not analyzed and adjusted by the rational system, because the task
cognitive seems routine, because its importance or difficulty is underestimated or because
that environmental constraints do not allow it.

6.3 Cognitive biases

In our modern world with complex and ambiguous problems and situations, biases
caused by the heuristic processing of information are frequently observed. For example,
people tend to overestimate the likelihood of relatively rare events occurring,
more striking or easy to remember (Sherman et al., 2002; Tversky and Kahneman 2002).
This is the case, for example, with school shootings, the likelihood of which seems to be largely
exaggerated in popular imagination.

Furthermore, the fundamental rule of attribution theory states that

When a behavior occurs in the presence of a sufficiently strong facilitating force,
The observer should not conclude that the actor is predisposed to adopt this behavior.
(Gilbert 2002, p. 168). However, this is generally not the case: in practice, people attribute the
behaviors, attitudes, and speeches of other people to their personality rather than to some
environmental factors. Human beings also seem likely to experience
mental contamination, as evidenced by the Pygmalion effect, for example. Moreover, once
effective contamination, it becomes very difficult to counter cognitive biases or to
"recalibrate" the evaluative process (Wilson, Centerbar, and Brekke, 2002).

86
Despite the existence of these biases and the fact that they frequently lead to erroneous predictions,
men and women often demonstrate an excessive confidence in their ability to predict
rare events, which constitutes an obstacle to correcting cognitive biases (Dunning,
Meyerowitz and Holtzberg, 2002; Griffin and Tversky, 2002). Armor and Taylor (2002) add that
One of the strongest conclusions of prediction psychology is that
People's predictions tend to be biased by excessive optimism. Depending on a certain
number of parameters and in various fields, it has been shown that people attach significant importance to
higher probabilities regarding the achievement of the results they desire than what is
justified by objective criteria or logical analysis" (p. 334). Thus, not only the
Judgment in situations of uncertainty is often distorted, but individuals, far from being
Conscious individuals tend to overestimate the accuracy of their predictions and the extent of their abilities.

6.4 Application to the study of profiling

These biases have been studied in various clinical judgment contexts, where it has been
demonstrated that the latter was systematically surpassed by actuarial judgment (Dawes, Faust
and Meehl, 2002). For example, the reliability of clinical judgment has consistently been shown to be low, which
means that clinical judgment based on the same data will often produce predictions
different. This observation is confirmed when the same case is examined by several clinicians or by
the same clinician but at different times. In contrast, actuarial tools demonstrate
a perfect loyalty since they rely on stable decision rules (the same data
will always lead to the same prediction). However, where clinical judgment becomes useful,
it is in the case of a rare and unforeseen event, which is not part of actuarial instruments,
but which can still have a significant impact on the outcome: only the clinician can do so
take into account in the evaluation.

If clinical judgment is so difficult, it is because human beings possess impressive

observation and data collection skills, which sometimes exceed analytical capabilities
of cognitive function. Therefore, Dawes, Faust, and Meehl (2002) note that
Factors such as fatigue, recent experience, or minor changes in appearance
in the organization of information or in the conceptualization of a case or task
can produce random fluctuations in judgment" (p. 724). Furthermore, the clinician
often forms, quite early in the analysis process, an implicit hypothesis that then guides its
search for information and its interpretation: [TRANSLATION] "the formation of […] beliefs
errors are further exacerbated by a deliberate human tendency to pay more attention
to information that supports our hypotheses and to attach too little importance
to the information that contradicts them […]. It results that the beliefs or conclusions
"Erroneous beliefs resist disproof once formed..." (Dawes, Faust, and Meehl)
2002, p. 725). The existence of this bias has also been observed in survey contexts, although the
police officers seem less likely to be involved than individuals without police experience (Ask and
Granhag, 2005).

This has consequences for the practice of profiling that go beyond judgment.
clinic in the prediction of recurrence. For example, the theory of decision-making heuristics has
notably developed in reaction to the empirical anomalies related to choice theory

87
rational. However, this latter is at the base of several approaches in criminology and makes
an integral part of the theoretical framework of geographical profiling and the actuarial approach of
prospective profiling (Durlauf, 2005, 2006; Harcourt, 2003). According to the empirical studies conducted
So far, it seems that the explanatory power and predictive validity of the theory of
Decision-making heuristics lead us to question the validity of choice theory.
rational in a large number of situations related to crime. Thus, the concept of elasticity,
proposed by Harcourt (2003), struggles to fit into a choice conceptualization focused on the
heuristic model. However, the consequences might be less significant for the
theorization of geographical profiling in the measure where the concept of opportunity (Felson and
Clarke, 1998) retains its meaning regardless of which cognitive mechanism it is evaluated by.

Finally, the heuristic model questions any instance where profiling, especially prospective,
relies solely on the discretionary judgment of agents: the case of profiling women
African American women at Chicago's O'Hare Airport (Schauer, 2003) is an example.
against actuarial profiles applied in similar situations (for example at the airport of
Detroit seems to have experienced some success.

The simplest way (but the least realistic) to control certain biases, such as the
mental contamination is the straightforward avoidance of stimuli that could influence our
cognitive response in an undesirable way (Wilson, Centerbar, and Brekke, 2002). Otherwise, Tetlock
(2002) notes that the obligation to explain the arguments that led to the decision-making,
in a perspective of accountability to an audience whose opinion is not
known in advance, can cause a drastic reduction in judgment biases. However,
The application of such a measure could turn out to be burdensome and unpopular as it would be perceived
like an excess of bureaucratization.

7. General conclusion
Our mandate was to assess the empirical support for the practice of profiling in the context
of application defined by the Canadian Human Rights Act. We have thus explored
three types of profiling: 1) criminal profiling, 2) geographical profiling and 3) profiling
prospective.

We first observed, based on published research, that the systematic effectiveness

criminal profiling had not been empirically demonstrated. However, we cannot
do not conclude that this practice has no merit: rather, the limitations of the existing literature do not
do not allow for conclusions to be generalized to the Canadian context, where profilers are trained
by the ICIAF rather than self-proclaimed. The position of the courts therefore seems reasonable to us: the
profiling can possibly be perceived as a useful art in the police investigation process, but
it cannot currently claim the status of a science. We therefore recommend that the
inference methods should be formalized, leading to the identification of indicators of
performance and empirical research aimed at evaluating its actual effectiveness.

Geographical profiling, for its part, has more substantial conceptualization efforts.
and solid empirical support regarding a part of its application, namely the reduction of the area of

88
search based on the geographic coordinates of crime scenes. However, the step
prior to the establishment of the geographical profile itself, the assignment of a series of crimes to
the same offender depends on the validity of the inferences made in terms of profiling
criminal, more precisely of linkage analysis. The recorded research
they fail to verify to what extent the analysts successfully carry out this task.
The actual effectiveness of geographic profiling in police investigation procedures remains thus
partially unexplored. In this case, we recommend the standardization of
selection procedures and entry of geographical parameters as well as the extension of
research activities on evaluating the success rate in the association of crimes to the same
offender in the presence of conditions true to the authentic practice of profiling
geographical (abundance of crime scenes by multiple offenders, temporal distribution
extent, etc.).

Finally, the predictive profiling must be divided into two categories: profiling affecting
frequent events for which it is possible to compile statistics and the one dealing with
of very rare events (low base-rate) for which it is difficult to draw a portrait
reliable statistics of the authors. In the first case, it has been clearly demonstrated that the approach
clinical or where simple heuristic profiling proved ineffective. This observation quickly led to
the adoption of actuarial risk assessment measures, which have proven to be significantly more
effective. The best-documented application in this regard is the assessment of dangerousness and
risk of recidivism of incarcerated individuals. It should be noted that in the case of drug trafficking and the
recidivism, race has not proven to be a relevant indicator. The use of profiling
Racial has however been closely scrutinized in the context of the fight against drug trafficking. The
the most reliable data indicate, at least in the United States, excessive surveillance of
certain ethnic minorities in relation to the proportion they represent in the population
or their crime rate. The counterproductive nature of this practice has also been highlighted.
This association between crime and ethnic origin would arise more from profiles.
ad hoc heuristics rather than valid instruments for actuarial risk assessment. In the absence
scientific evidence regarding the association between belonging to an ethnic group and
crime and given the direct opposition of racial profiling to the spirit of the Law, this practice does not
proves to be unjustified in the explored contexts. The animosity between citizens and the State as well
that the social stigma resulting from profiling constitutes sufficient repercussions to
justify this position.

In the second case, that of particularly rare events such as school shootings.
And the terrorist attacks, no empirical research has been found to support the use.
of profiling or actuarial risk assessment. In light of related research on
better documented and more frequent events, it is permissible to postulate that the approach
actuarial would be preferable to prospective profiling based on heuristic criteria, and this is what
that security agencies reflect on their practices. However, even the approach
seems to us, in such a context, likely to experience significant failures because
based on a relatively poor factual basis. Precisely, it seems vulnerable to us.
to events considered statistically unlikely based on its criteria and, in the case of
terrorism, in various forms of substitution. An important dilemma arises here between security
national and the rights and freedoms of the person. In a forward-looking perspective where people
targeted have not yet committed the crime of which they are nonetheless suspected, the logic and
Justice dictates that the basis of these suspicions must be particularly solid in order to justify

89
the preemptive infringement of individual rights that results. However, in the case of rare events,
like terrorism, the opposite is observed: the empirical bases are absent from the
scientific literature. The consequences can be catastrophic for the targeted individual,
The recourse to caution is necessary on the part of the agencies. However, another question then arises:
What effective means are available to security agencies to successfully carry out their tasks?
protection mission while respecting the spirit and the letter of the law? Our research does not provide
no response, but the retired general of the United States Marine Corps (USMC) and ex-
Commander in Chief of Central Command (CENTCOM) Anthony Zinni believed that the
combat against terrorism relied on intelligence and diplomatic relations with the
countries hosting terrorist organizations (Priest, 2003). In this regard, we therefore recommend
that emphasis is placed on the acquisition of credible, relevant, and up-to-date information on
the evaluation, when possible, of the performance of actuarial tools and on the development of guidelines
ethics of using risk assessment in the case of rare events.

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