Outline

Permutation and Combination. Concepts and principles of probability. Random variables.

Probability and distribution functions. Basic distribution: Bernoulli, Binomial, Hyper geometric,
Poisson and Normal.

Permutation and Combination

A permutation is an arrangement of a number of objects in a specific order, taken some or all at a

time.

n n!
Pr
n r !

n! n n 1 n 2 ,...

0! 1

1! 1

Example 1

How many ways can you arrange all the letters in the word “MATH”

Solution

n 4, r 4

n n! 4! 4 3 2 1
Pr 24
n r ! 4 4! 0!

Example 2

How many ways can you arrange two of the letters in the word “MATH”

Solution

n 4, r 2

4 4! 4 3 2 1
P4 12
4 2! 2 1

A combination is a selection of items from a collection in which the order of selection does not
matter.
 n n!
Cr
r! n r !

Example 1

From a group of 20 basketball players, how many different teams of 5 players can be formed if
each player can play any position?

Solution

n 20, r 5

20 20! 20!
C5 15504
5! 20 5 ! 5!15!

Example 2

How many ways can you choose 3 students from a group of 5?

Solution
n 5, r 3
5 5! 5!
C3 10
3! 5 3 ! 3!2!
Concepts and Principles of Probability

Definition of Terms
The terms to be considered here are essential to the understanding of problems in probability.
Experiment: Is any operation which when performed generate a number of outcomes which
cannot be predetermined. E.g Tossing two coins once.
Sample Space S : This is the totality of possible outcomes of a random experiment. For
instance, in the experiment of tossing a coin, S H ,T

Event: This is a subset of a sample space. Suppose S HH , HT , TH , TT , the event E of

heads occurring in the toss of a coin twice is E HH
Null Event: An event that cannot occur is called a null event. For example, obtaining an orange
fruit from a mango tree is a null event.
Sure Event: An event that is guaranteed to occur is called a sure event. For example, plucking
an orange fruit from an orange tree is a sure event.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events are said to be mutually exclusive, when they cannot happen
together. In essence, the simultaneous occurrence of the events is doubtful. The event that a boy
is playing football and table tennis at the same time is mutually exclusive.
Independent Events: Events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of
one does not influence the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other. In other words, the events
happen independently of each other.
 Set Theory
Set: A set is defined as a collection of well-defined objects, such as items, animals, or people.
For example, the oranges in a basket can be considered a set.
A Universal Set   : A set that contains all the items under consideration at a given point in
time is called the Universal Set. It is also referred to as the sample space.

A Subset: When a set B is contained in , B is called a subset of .

A Null Set: A set that contains no elements is called a null set, or empty set, and it is denoted by
the symbol  .

Union of Sets A and B: The union of two sets, A and B, denoted by A B , is the set containing
all elements that are in A, or in B, or in both.

Intersection of sets A and B: The intersection of two sets, A and B, denoted by A B , is the set
containing all elements that are common to both A and B. In other words, A B consists of
elements that are present in both sets.

Complement of a set A: The complement of a set A, denoted by AC , is the set of all elements in
the Universal Set that are not in A. Therefore, the intersection of A and its complement is the
empty set, i.e A AC and the union of A and its complement gives the Universal Set, i.e.,
A AC .

Illustrative Diagrams

Suppose = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {1, 3}

a. A B
2,4,6 1,3

The Venn diagram, showing , A and B.

b. A B

2,4,6 1,3
 The Venn diagram, showing A  B where A  B =  .

c. 
A B

2,4,6 1,3

The Venn Diagram, showing (A B) where (A B) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6}

Some Set Relations

AB
1. n(A B) = n A + n B – n(A B)

2. n(A B) = n A + n B , if A and B are mutually exclusive events

n A
3. P A =
n( )

Definition of Probability

We will define probability using three fundamental approaches: the classical, subjective, and axiomatic
approaches

Classical Approach

If an experiment results in “n” equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive, outcomes such
that “m” of them are favourable to the occurrence of an event A, then the probability of event A
number of favourable outcomes m
occurring, P(A) is defined as P A
number of total possible outcome n

Subjective Approach

Probability is defined as the degree of one’s belief in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an

event. If a person believes strongly in the occurrence of an event, then such an event is likely to
have a high probability.

Axiomatic Approach

The probability is defined as a function defined on events (subsets of sample space S), that is, it a
rule which associates to each event. A a certain real number P(A) which satisfies the following
three axioms:
Axiom I: P A 0 i.e, the probability of every event is non negative
Axiom II: P S 1 i.e, the probability of a certain event is unity.
Axiom III: If A1 , A 2 , , are accountable number of sub-events of S such that
A1 A2 3 S and Ai Aj , i j
then P Ai Aj k P Ai P Aj P Ak i.e the probability of a union of disjoint
events is the sum of the probabilities of the events themselves.
Fundamental Probability Rules
1. P(A B) = P A + P B - P(A B)
2. P(A B) =P A P B , if A and B are mutually exclusive
3. P(A B C) P A P B +P C – P A B – P A C – P B C P A B C
4. P(A B C) P A P B P C , if A, B and C are mutually exclusive.
5. P(A B) P A P B , if A and B are independent
6. P(A B C) P A P B P C , if A, B and C are independent
7. P A B P A/B P B
=P B/ A P A

8. P AC = 1 P A
Example 1

Find the probability of scoring a total of 7 points in a single toss of a pair of fair dice.
Solution

number of favourable outcomes

P A =
Number of possible outcomes

For a pair of fair dice, possible outcomes = 62 = 36

Total = 7  (1,6), (2,5) (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1).

6 1
P(of 7 points) = =
36 6
Example 2

One basket contains 4 oranges and 3 lemons; another basket contains 3 oranges and 2 lemons. If
one fruit is drawn from each basket, find the probability that

a. both fruits are oranges.

b. both fruits are lemons.
Solution

4 3 12
a. P(both oranges) =x = (both selections are independent).
7 5 35
3 2 6
b. P(both lemons) = x = (both selections are independent).
7 5 35