Chapter 6: Population Growth and Economic Development

CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES,
AND CONTROVERSIES

Ali, Jofaila, Pacote, Nur-halemah, Carim, Princess Jawaher

Lesson Outline
6.1 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and the Quality of Life

6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future

6.3 Demographic Structure and the Demographic

Transition
6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and
Household Models

6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Perspectives

6.6 Some Policy Approaches

Population Growth and Economic Development:
6.2 POPULATION GROWTH:
PAST, PRESENT, AND
FUTURE
6.2.1 World Population
Growth Throughout
History
The world’s population grew slowly for
thousands of years but expanded rapidly
after 8000 BCE, reaching over 11 billion
by 2100.
 6.2.2 STRUCTURE OF THE
WORLD’S POPULATION
Geographic Region - is an area of the Earth’s Fertility and mortality trends - refer to the patterns
surface that shares common features such as of birth and death rates in a population. Fertility
location, climate, culture, language, or economic means how many babies are born, while mortality
conditions. It helps divide the world into sections for means how many people die. The population grows
easier study and comparison. For example, regions when the number of births is higher than the number
like Asia, Africa, or Europe. of deaths, and this difference is called natural
increase. In developing countries, population growth
Net international migration - the excess of persons mostly depends on this difference between birth rates
migrating into a country over those who emigrate and death rates.
from that country.
Crude birth rate - the number of children born alive
each year per 1,000 population (often shortened to
birth rate)
From 1990 to 2017, fertility rates (the average number
of children a woman has) have been decreasing in
many countries. At the same time, death rates have
dropped because of better healthcare, vaccines, clean
water, nutrition, and education. As a result, people are
living longer — life expectancy has increased
worldwide, though it’s still higher in developed countries
(around 81 years) than in developing ones (around 61
years in sub-Saharan Africa). Child deaths under age 5
have also decreased greatly, showing major global
health improvements.

Youth Dependency Ratio: The ratio showing how

many young people (under 15 years old) depend on
working-age adults (ages 15–64).

Hidden Momentum of Population Growth: The

continued growth of a population even after birth rates
Population Growth and Economic Development:
6.3 DEMOGRAPHIC
STRUCTURE AND
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
The demographic transition attempts to explain why
all contemporary developed nations have more or
less passed through the same three stages of modern
population history.

Stage 1: high birth rates and high death rates

Stage 2: high birth rates and falling death rates

Stage 3: falling birth rates and lower death rates

it depicts the three historical stages of the
demographic transition in
western Europe
Population Growth and Economic Development:
6.4 THE CAUSES OF HIGH
FERTILITY IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES: THE MALTHUSIAN
AND HOUSEHOLD MODELS
Malthusian Population Trap
- The threshold population level
anticipated by Thomas Malthus
(1766–1834) at which population
increase was bound to stop because
life-sustaining resources,
which increase at an arithmetic rate,
would be insufficient to support
human population, which would
increase at a geometric rate.
• The Malthusian Population Trap - Children are both sources of happiness (consumption)
and future support (investment).
- Population grows faster than food supply, causing
- Fertility depends on income, cost of child-rearing, and
poverty and hunger.
family preferences.
- Leads to famine, disease, and conflict until balance
is restored.
• The Demand for Children in Developing Countries
- Known as the “population trap”, where growth limits
- Families want more children due to high child mortality
living standard improvements. and labor needs.
- Children serve as economic assets and emotional
• Criticisms of the Malthusian Model comfort.
- the model ignores the enormous impact of - As education and job opportunities (especially for
technological progress in offsetting the women) rise, fertility declines.
growth-inhibiting forces of rapid population increases. - Urban families have fewer children due to high living
- its assumption that national rates of population costs and limited space.
increase are directly (positively) related to the level of
national per capita income. • Implications for Development and Fertility
-Economic and social development lowers fertility rates.
-Access to health care, education, and family planning
• The Microeconomic Household Theory of
reduces birth rates.
Fertility
-Focus shifts to quality over quantity of children. -Results
- Fertility is a family’s economic decision.
in sustainable growth and better living standards for
Population Growth and Economic Development:
6.5 THE CONSEQUENCES OF
HIGH FERTILITY: SOME
CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES
 6.5.1 It’s Not a Real
Problem
We can identify three general lines of argument on the part of people who
assert that population growth is not a cause for concern:

• The problem is not population growth but other issues.

• Population growth is a false issue deliberately created by dominant
rich-country agencies and institutions to keep developing countries in their
dependent condition.
• For many developing countries and regions, population growth is in fact
desirable.
 Other Issues many observers from both rich and poor nations argue that the real problem is not population growth
per se but one or all of the following four issues:

1. Underdevelopment. If correct strategies are 3. Population Distribution. It is not the number of

pursued and lead to higher levels of living, greater people per se that is causing population problems but
self-esteem, and expanded freedom, population will their distribution in space.
take care of itself. Eventually, it will disappear as a
problem, as it has in all of the present economically 4. Subordination of Women. Perhaps most important,
advanced nations. as noted previously, women often bear the
disproportionate burdens of poverty, poor education, and
2. World Resource Depletion and Environmental limited social mobility.
Destruction. Population can only be an economic
problem in relation to the availability and utilisation of
scarce natural and material resources.
 6.5.2 It’s a Deliberately
Contrived False Issue
The second main line of argument denying the significance of
population growth as a major development problem is closely allied to
the neocolonial dependence theory of underdevelopment discussed in
Chapter 3.

A radical neo-Marxist version of this argument views population

control efforts by rich countries and their allied international agencies
as racist or genocidal attempts.
6.5.3 IT’S A
DESIRABLE PHENOMENON
Conventional economic argument is that of population growth
as an essential ingredient to stimulate economic development.

Three other noneconomic arguments, each found to some

degree in a wide range of developing countries, complete the
“population growth is desirable” viewpoint.
1. First, many countries claim a need for population growth to
protect currently underpopulated border regions against the
expansionist intentions of neighbouring nations.
2. Second, there are many ethnic, racial, and religious groups in
less-developed countries whose attitudes favouring large family
size have to be protected for both moral and political reasons.
3. Finally, military and political power are often seen as
dependent on a large and youthful population.
6.5.4 IT IS A REAL PROBLEM
The Extremist Argument: Population The Theoretical Argument:
and Global Crisis The extreme version of Population–Poverty Cycles and the Need
the population-as-problem position attempts for Family-Planning Programmes
to attribute almost all of the world’s The Population-poverty cycle Is a theory to
economic and social evils to excessive explain how poverty and high population
population growth. Value-laden and growth become reinforcing.
incendiary terms such as population bomb Simple Model A basic model that economists
and population explosion are tossed use to demonstrate these adverse
around. consequences of rapid population growth is a
simplification of the standard Solow-type
neoclassical growth equation.

Y = f(K,L,R,T)
Other Empirical Arguments: Seven Negative Consequences of Population Growth
According to empirical research, the potential negative consequences of population growth for economic
development can be divided into seven categories: its impact on economic growth, poverty and inequality,
education, health, food, the environment, and international migration.
1. Economic Growth. Evidence shows that although it 4. Health. High fertility harms the health of mothers and
is not the culprit behind economic stagnation, rapid children.
population growth lowers per capita income growth in 5. Food. Feeding the world’s population is made more
most developing countries, especially those that are difficult by rapid population growth—a large fraction of
already poor, dependent on agriculture, and developing-country food requirements are the result of
experiencing pressures on land and natural resources. population increases.
2. Poverty and Inequality. Even though aggregate 6. Environment. Rapid population growth contributes to
statistical correlations between measures of poverty and environmental degradation in the form of forest
population growth at the national level are often encroachment, deforestation, fuelwood depletion, soil
inconclusive, at the household level the evidence is erosion, declining fish and animal stocks, inadequate and
strong and compelling. unsafe water, air pollution, and urban congestion
3. Education. Although the data are sometimes 7. International Migration. Many observers consider the
ambiguous on this point, it is generally agreed that large increase in international migration, both legal and illegal, to
family size and low incomes restrict the opportunities of be one of the major consequences of developing countries’
parents to educate all their children. population growth.
 6.5.5 Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus
The following three propositions constitute the The following three policy goals and objectives might
essential components of this intermediate or be included in any realistic approach to the issue of
consensus opinion: population growth in developing countries:

1. Population growth is not the primary cause of 1. In countries or regions where population size,
low levels of living, extreme inequalities, or the distribution, and growth are viewed as an existing or
limited freedom of choice that characterise much of potential problem, the primary objective of any strategy
the developing world. to limit further growth must deal not only with the

2. The problem of population is not simply one of population variable per se but also with the underlying
social and economic conditions of underdevelopment.
numbers but involves the quality of life and material
2. To bring about smaller families through
well-being.
development-induced motivations, family-planning
3. Rapid population growth does serve to intensify
programmes providing both the education and the
problems of underdevelopment and to make
technological means to regulate fertility for people who
prospects for development that much more remote.
wish to regulate it should be established.
3. Developed countries should help developing
countries achieve their lowered fertility and mortality
Population Growth and Economic Development:

6.6 SOME POLICY

APPROACHES
6.6 Some
Policy Approaches
Three main policy approaches to manage world
population and promote global well-being:

1. Developing countries can create policies to control

population growth and distribution.
2. Developed countries can lessen their high resource
consumption and promote fair sharing of global progress.
3. Developed countries and international agencies can
help developing nations achieve their population goals.
6.6.1 What Developing Countries
Can Do
Developing countries can implement strategic policies to manage population growth and
promote sustainable development through the following:

· Eradicating poverty and reducing income · Applying economic incentives and

inequality to address the root causes of high disincentives to influence family size and promote
population growth. balanced population growth.
· Expanding access to quality education and · Empowering women socially and
employment opportunities, especially for economically to strengthen their decision-making
women, to encourage responsible family planning. power in family and reproductive choices.
· Enhancing family-planning and health
programs to ensure reproductive awareness and
reduce infant and maternal mortality rates.
6.6.2 What the Developed
Countries Can Do
Developed countries can play a major role in solving global population problems by:

· Reducing excessive resource consumption and promoting sustainable lifestyles.

· Minimizing environmental damage caused by industrialization and high energy use.
· Sharing technology and knowledge to support sustainable development in poorer
nations.
· Simplifying lifestyles and reducing waste to lessen global inequality.
· Allowing controlled international migration to balance global labor and population
pressures.
6.6.3 How Developed Countries
Can Help Developing Countries
· Provide financial and technical assistance
· Improve trade relations and technology transfers
· Support research on contraception and fertility control
· Fund family-planning and education programs
· Promote global cooperation and fair resource sharing
6.6.4 POLICY FOR STILL-DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES FACING POPULATION DECLINES
Some developing countries are now facing a population decline before achieving high income levels a
challenge known as “getting old before getting rich.” This happens when the number of elderly people
increases while the working population and income levels remain low.

Policies to Address Population Decline:

1. Allow Immigration – Accept foreign workers to balance the labor force and support economic productivity.
2. Retraining Programs – Provide training so older workers can adapt to new jobs and technologies.
3. Move Up the Value Chain – Focus on producing higher-value goods to increase productivity and income.
4. Attract Foreign Investment – Encourage investments that create jobs and raise worker productivity.
5. Encourage Childbearing – Offer incentives like tax breaks or affordable childcare to support families.
Population Growth and Economic Development:

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