PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
• Probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty.
• Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur.
For example
• Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
• The odds of winning the lottery are a million to one.
• List some of the examples you can think?
PROBABILITY IN EVERY DAY LIFE
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Random Experiment
• An experiment whose result is uncertain.
• It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance.
Possible Outcome
• The result of a random experiment is called an outcome.
Example
• Tossing a coin and getting up
head or tail is an outcome.
• Throwing a die and getting a number
between 1 to 6 is also an outcome.
Event
• Any possible outcome of a random experiment is called an event.
• The probability of an event denoted by P(E), is the likelihood of that event
occurring.
Note
• Performing an experiment is called a trial and outcomes are termed as
event.
Sample Space
• The set of all experimental outcomes for an experiment
is called as sample space and is denoted by S.
Exhaustive Events (Sample Space)
• Tossing a coin,
S= { H,T} where H=head, T=Tail
n(S)=2
• Tossing two coins, S= {HH,HT,TH,TT}
n(S)=4
• Throwing a die, S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
n(s)=6
• Throwing two dice, n(S)=36
Mutually Exclusive Events
Mutually Exclusive Events
• If A and B are mutually exclusive then (AꓵB)=φ , (disjoint)
• If A and B are mutually exclusive then P(AꓵB)=0
• If A and B are mutually exclusive then P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)
Independent Events
• Two events are said to be independent when the actual happening of
one does not influence in any way the happening of the other.
• In tossing a coin the event of getting head in the first toss is
independent of getting a head in the second toss, third toss, etc.
• The results obtained by throwing a die are independent of the results
obtained by drawing a king from a pack of cards.
• Note: If A and B are independent, then P(AꓵB)=P(A)P(B).
Independent or Dependent?
• A number cube is rolled twice.
• It is raining outside and the parade is cancelled.
• The first roll of a number cube is 4 and the sum of the first two rolls is 5.
• It is sunny and a movie theatre changes its movie.
• Two cards are drawn, one after the other, from a deck of cards. The first
card drawn is not replaced.
• Mr. A got an A grade on his Math test so he will get an A on his Science
test.
Independent or Dependent?
• A number cube is rolled twice. (Independent)
• It is raining outside and the parade is cancelled. (Dependent)
• The first roll of a number cube is 4 and the sum of the first two rolls is 5.
(Dependent)
• It is sunny and a movie theatre changes its movie. (Independent)
• Two cards are drawn, one after the other, from a deck of cards. The first
card drawn is not replaced. (Dependent)
• Mr. A got an A grade on his Math test so he will get an A on his Science
test. (Independent)
Range of Probability
Axioms of Probability
For a finite sample space S,
Axiom 1: 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 for each event E in S
Axiom 2: P(S) = 1.
Axiom 3: If A and B are mutually exclusive events in S, then
P(AUB) = P(A)+P(B).
Problems
Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 in a single throw of a die?
Problems
Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 in a single throw of a die?
Solution:
Possible outcomes S ={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Favourable outcomes E = Getting a number less than 5
i.e, E = {1,2,3,4}
P(E)=n(E)/n(S)=4/6 = 2/3
Problems
A coin is tossed two times. What is the probability of getting
(i) two heads
(ii) Exactly one head
(iii)Atmost one head
Problems
A coin is tossed two times. What is the probability of getting
(i) two heads
(ii) Exactly one head
(iii) Atmost one head
Solution:
S= {HH,HT,TH,TT}
(i) A= getting two heads={HH}
P(A)= 𝑛(𝐴) /𝑛(𝑠) = 1 /4
(ii) B= Exactly one head=={HT, TH}
P(B)= 𝑛(B)/ 𝑛(𝑠) = 2 /4
(iii) C= atmost one head= {0Head, 1Head}={TT,HT,TH}
P(C)= 𝑛(C) /𝑛(𝑠) = 3/ 4
Problems
A bag contains 3 red, 2 green, 7 yellow and 3 blue marbles. What is the
probability of drawing a blue marble?
Problems
A die is thrown,
(i) find probability of getting an odd number
(ii) find probability of getting an even number.
Problems
A die is thrown,
(i) find probability of getting an odd number
(ii) find probability of getting an even number.
Solution: S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
(i) A= {odd numbers}={1,3,5} ;
𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
P(A)= = =
𝑛(𝑠) 6 2
(ii) B= {even numbers }={2,4,6}
𝑛(𝐵) 3 1
P(B)= = =
𝑛(𝑠) 6 2
Problems
A coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting
(i) atleast two heads
(ii) exactly two heads
Problems
A coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting
(i) atleast two heads
(ii) exactly two heads
Solution:
n(S)= 2 3 = 8
(i) A= atleast two heads={2Heads,3heads}={HHT,HTH,THH,HHH}
P(A)=𝑛(𝐴) /𝑛(𝑠) = 4 /8
(ii) A= exactly two heads ={HHT,HTH,THH}
P(A)=𝑛(𝐴) /𝑛(𝑠) = 3/ 8
Problems
Addition Theorem of Probability
• If A and B are any two events, then
P(AUB) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A∩B).
Problems
If P(A) = 0.37 , P(B) = 0.42 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.09 then find P (A U B) .
Problems
If P(A) = 0.37 , P(B) = 0.42 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.09 then find P (A U B) .
Solution :
P(A) = 0.37 , P(B) = 0.42 , P (A ∩ B) = 0.09
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B)
P (A U B) = 0.37 + 0.42 − 0.09 = 0. 7
Problems
Two dice are rolled together. Find the probability of getting a doublet
or sum of faces as 4.
Problems
Two dice are rolled together. Find the probability of getting a doublet
or sum of faces as 4.
Solution:
When two dice are rolled together, there will be 6×6 = 36 outcomes.
Let S be the sample space. Then n (S) = 36
Let A be the event of getting a doublet and B be the event of getting
face sum 4.
Then A = {(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}
B = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}
Therefore, A Ո B = {(2,2)}
Then, n (A) = 6 , n (B) = 3 , n (A ∩ B) = 1.
Solution:
Therefore, P (getting a doublet or a total of 4) = P (A U B)
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B) = 6/36 + 3/36 – 1/36 = 8/36 = 2/9
Hence, the required probability is 2/9.