Module 7

PROBABILITY, PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

PROBABILITY is a mathematical concept

INTENDED LEARNING OUTCOMES used to measure the certainty or uncertainty of
occurrence of statistical phenomena.
At the end of the lesson, the students must
be able to: Probability of an Event is a number between
0 and 1 that indicates the likelihood the event
(a) Gain understanding of the basic concepts will occur.
of Statistics and its uses;
(b) Classify variables; and number of outcomes∈ A
P(A) =
(c) Find interest in learning the lessons. total number of items

Example 1: In a class of 35 students, 13 are

seniors, 9 are juniors, 8 are sophomores,and 5
are freshmen. If one of the students is selected at random from this class, what is the probability that this
9 5 8
student is: (a) a junior; (b) a freshman, (c) a sophomore Ans. ( a ) , ( b ) , (c )
35 35 35

Example 2. In a batch of 45 lamps,there are 10 faulty [Link] one lamp is drawn at random, what is the
10 2 35 7
probability of it : (a) being faulty; (b) being satisfactory Ans. ( a ) or , ( b ) or
45 9 45 9

Probability of Compound Events

Conjunction Probability – associated with events happening together, meaning one event and
another event occurring at the same time. Events may be independent or dependent of each other.

Independent events – occurrence of one event does not influence the probability of the occurrence
of the other event. The probability that two or more independent events will happen is

P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)

Example 1. What is the probability that Rosa and Maria will win if the probability that Rosa will win a
contest is 40% and the probability that Maria will win in another contest is 60%?
Ans. (0.40 )(0.60 ) = 0.24 or 24%

Example 2. A store considers a 30% increase in sales,and also considers a 5% increase in manpower if there
is increase in sales. What is the probability that the store will increase its sales and also its manpower ?
Ans. (0.30 )(0.05 ) = 0.015 or 1.5%

Example 3. Mr. Smith has 3 children, two girls and one boy. After each meal, one child is chosen at random
to wash [Link] is the probability that one boy and one girl will wash dishes after lunch and dinner on
Saturday ?
1 2 4
Ans. ( )( )2 =
3 3 9

Conditional Probability – an event will happen depends on whether or not the other event takes
place. The probability of the simultaneous occurrence of the events A and B is equal to the probability that
A occurs multiplied by the probability that B occurs provided A has already occurred.
 P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B/A) or
P(A and B) = P(B) . P(A/B)

Example 1. A box containing five coins,three of which are fifty-centavo coins and two of which are one-
peso [Link] we draw two coins from the box without replacement,what is the probability that the first coin
drawn is fifty centavos and the second is one peso ?
3 2 6 3
Ans. ( )( ) = or
5 4 20 10

Disjunction Probability – associated with several events that happen either separately or
simultaneously. It is concerned with “either-or” relationships.

Mutually Exclusive Events – Two or more events that cannot occur at the same time. If one
event occurs, the other is impossible. For example, flipping a coin cannot result in both heads and
tails simultaneously, and rolling a single die cannot produce both a 4 and a 6 at the same time.
The probability of mutually exclusive events happening together is always zero. They do not have
common sample points. The probability that one or the other event will occur is equal to the sum of
their individual probabilities.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1:. What is the probability that in a single toss of two dice,the sum will be 8 or 10?
5 3 8 2
Ans. ( )+( ) = or
36 36 36 9

Example 2:. In a cup, there are 4 quarters, 5 dimes, 6 nickels and 10 [Link] one coin is selected at
random,what is the probability that the coin has letter “n” in its name ?
6 10 16
Ans. ( )+( ) =
25 25 25

Joint events – not mutually exclusive events because there are some elements common to both
events. To find the probability of these events,we add their respective probabilities and subtract the
probability of the intersection (common to both events) of the sample events.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

Example 1: Find the probability of getting a sum of 8 or a sum greater than 6 in a single throw of two dice.
5 21 5 21 7
Ans. ( )+( ) - ( ) = or
36 36 36 36 12

Solution: From the previous example, we have seen that there are five sample points for the event “sum of
8”. The sample points for the event “sum greater than 6” are: (3,4), (4,3), (3,5), (5,3), (2,5), (5,2), (1,6),
(6,1), (2,6), (6,2), (3,6), (6,3), (4,6), (6,4), (4,4), (5,6), (6,5), (6,6), (4,5),(5,4), and (5,5).Hence, P(sum
greater than 6) = 21/36 or 7/12. The intersection of “sum of 8” and “sum greater than 6” is equal to five
sample points are (3,5), (5,3),(4,4),(2,6) and (6,2). Therefore

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

P(sum of 8 or sum greater than 6) = 5/36 + 21/36 – 5/36 = 21/36 or 7/12

Example 2: A mathematics class with 52 students, 32 of whom are males and the rest are females A total
of 21 of the males and 15 of the females got a grade above 90. What is the probability that if a student is
chosen at random, this student has either a grade above 90 or is a male?
36 32 21 47
Ans. ( )+( ) - ( ) =
52 52 52 52

Binomial Probability – for events which can happen only in two ways, either as a success or failure.

N!
P(r) = . prqN-r
r ! (N−r)!

where: p=probability for success

q=probability for failure
N = total number of trials
r = number of successful trials
N-r = number of failure trials
pr = probability that success results
qN-r = probability that failure results

Example: If a coin is tossed seven times, what is the probability that four heads will appear?
7! 1 1 35
Ans. ( )4( )3 =
4 ! (7−4)! 2 2 128

PERMUTATION

Permutation – arrangement of all parts of a set of objects

[Link] permutations of n distinct objects = n !

[Link] permutations of n objects in a row = n !

Example 1:.Carla is going to arrange her 4 books on a shelf: Algebra, Trigonometry, Geometry and
Calculus. How many different possible arrangements can she make?
Ans. 4! =24

Example 2:You know that the extension of a private telephone number is 272 but you have forgotten the
last 4 digits. You can only recall that the last 4 digits are 3,6,8 and 9. But you do not know the order. What
is the maximum number of telephone calls you will need to make in order to dial the correct number?
Ans. 4! =24

Example 3: How many ways can a party of 8 persons arranged in a row of 8 chairs?
Ans.8! =40320

Example 4: How many different three-digit numbers can be made from the digits 6,8 and 9 if its digit
appears only once in the arrangement?
Ans.3! = 6

[Link] ordering of n objects taken r at a time with repetition = nr

Example 1: A standard deck of cards has 52 different cards. How many 3 card order arrangements can be
made by selecting 3 cards with replacement ?
Ans.(52)3= 140,608

Example 2: How many 5-letter ordered codes can be arrangements can be formed with letters A,B,C and
D if we allow repeated use of the letter ?
Ans.(4)5= 1024

[Link] of permutations of n objects where one or more objects

are repeated the given number of times

n!
No. of permutations =
x! y ! z!...

Example 1: Find the number of permutations of 7 objects with one object repeated 4 times.
7!
Ans. = 210
4!

Example 2: Find the number of permutations of 5 objects with one object repeated 3 times and a second
object repeated 2times.
5!
Ans. = 10
3! 2!

Example 3: If you are given the word PARALLEL, how many different 8-letter arrangements can be
formed? .
8!
Ans. = 3360
3! 2! 1 ! 1! 1 !

Example 4: How many arrangements can be formed of the letters in the word PHILIPPINES taken all at a
time? .
11!
Ans. = 1108800
3! 3 ! 1 ! 1 ! 1! 1 ! 1! 1 !

Example 5: How many different signals each consisting of 6 flags hung in a vertical line can be formed by 4
identical red flags and 2 identical blue flags? .
6!
Ans. = 15
4!2!

Example 6: In a dog show,how many ways can 3 Chihuahuas, 5 Labradors, 4 Poodles and 3 Beagles line up
in the front of the judges if the dogs of the same breed are considered identical? .
15 !
Ans. = 12,612,600
3! 5 ! 4 ! 3 !

[Link] of permutations of “n” objects taken “r” at a time

n!
nPr =
(n−r )!

Example 1: Calculate the number of permutations if there are 5 distinct objects taken 2 at a time.

5!
Ans. = 20
(5−2)!
Example 2: A standard deck of cards has 52 different cards. How many 3 card order arrangements can be
made by selecting 3 cards without replacement ?
52!
Ans. = 132,600
(52−3)!

Example 3: In how many ways can a president and vice president be selected from a club of 20 students?
20 !
Ans. = 380
(20−2)!

Example 4: If you are given the word “ABSOLUTE”, how many three-letter arrangements can be formed
out of the letters in that word if each letter is used only once?
8!
Ans. = 336
(8−3)!

Example 5: How many ways can three persons be arranged in 4 chairs?

4!
Ans. = 24
( 4−3) !

[Link] of circular permutations of “n” objects = (n-1)!

Example 1: In how many ways can King Arthur arrange 8 knights around the round table?
Ans.( 8−1 ) ! = 5040

COMBINATION

Combination - process of selecting “r” objects from “n” without regard to order.
n!
nCr =
r ! (n−r )!

Example 1: Calculate the number of combinations of 4 distinct objects taken 2 at a time.

4!
Ans. =6
2! (4−2)!

Example 2: In how many ways can a team of 11 be picked from 16 possible players?

16 !
Ans. = 4368
11!(16−11)!

Example 3: Fifteen boxes can each hold one object. In how many ways can 10 identical objects be placed in
the boxes?
15 !
Ans. = 3003
10! (15−10)!

Example 4: A class has 24 students, 4 can represent the class at a certain examination. How many
combinations are possible when choosing this group?
24 !
Ans. = 3003
4 ! (24−4 )!
Example 5: A committee of 5 members is to be randomly selected from a group of 9 engineers and 20
lawyers. How many different committees can be formed if 2 members must be engineers and 3 members
must be lawyers?

9! 20!
Ans. . = 41,040
2! (9−2)! 3 !(20−3)!

Example 6: In how many ways can a student select a set of 4 Structural Design books and 3 Hydraulics
books from a set of 9 Structural Design books and 5 Hydraulics books ?
9! 5!
Ans. . = 1260
4 ! (9−4)! 3 !(5−3)!
___________32. In a lotto, there are 30 pingpong balls, how many possible combinations if 5 balls are
30 !
Ans. = 142,506
5! (30−5) !
drawn out at a time?

Example 7:In a pre-board examination, a reviewee may choose to solve 8 out of 12 problems in order to
pass the exams. In how many ways can the reviewee choose them?
12 !
Ans. = 495
8 !(12−8)!

Example 8: A restaurant offers four sizes of pizza, two types of crust and eight toppings?How many
combinations of pizza with one topping are there?
Ans. 4. 2.8 =64