AS Edexcel Maths 3 hours 28 questions

Exam Questions

Hypothesis Testing (Binomial

Distribution)
Hypothesis Testing for the Population Proportion of a Binomial Distribution

Easy (8 questions) /36

Medium (7 questions) /38 Scan here to return to the course

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Hard (7 questions) /47

Very Hard (6 questions) /40

Total Marks /161

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Easy Questions
1 (a) For the random variable X ∼ B 20,0 . 3
( ) calculate

(i) P ( X ≤3 )

(ii) P X <3
( )

(2 marks)

(b) A hypothesis test is to be carried out using an observation of the random variable X to test
the hypotheses:

H0 ∶ p = 0 . 3 H1 ∶ p < 0 . 3

Before carrying out the test, a significance level of 5% is chosen.

(i) Write down the critical region for the test.

(ii) State the actual significance level for the test.

(2 marks)

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2 (a) A single observation is taken from a discrete random variable X ∼ B 35,0 . 4
( ) to test
H0: p = 0 . 4 against H1: p < 0 . 4 .

Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for this test. You must show any
relevant probabilities.

(2 marks)

(b) The actual value for the observation was 10.

State whether there is evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

(1 mark)

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3 (a) Alina is running for student council president at her school. She claims she has the support
of 60% of students in the school. A rival candidate, John, wants to test at the 10% level of
significance whether Alina is overestimating her support.

In mathematical terms, the experiment John conducts uses an observation of the random
variable X ∼ ,
B 100 p to test the hypotheses:
( )

H0 ∶ p = 0 . 6 H1 ∶ p < 0 . 6

(i) State how many people are in John’s sample.

(ii) Explain what the parameter p means in the context of this question.

(iii) Explain why John has chosen this alternative hypothesis for his test.

(3 marks)

(b) In John’s survey, 55 people say that they will support Alina.

Assuming Alina’s claim is true, John calculates the following probabilities:

P X = 55
( ) = 0 . 04781
P X < 55
( ) = 0 . 13109
P X ≤ 55
( ) = 0 . 17890
(i) Write down the p-value for the test.

(ii) In the context of this question, write a conclusion for John’s test.

(3 marks)

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(c) John wants to repeat the test with a different sample of 100 students. This time he wants to
use a 5% level of significance.

Assuming Alina’s claim is true, John calculates the following cumulative probabilities:

x 51 52 53 54 55

P X ≤x
( ) 0.04230 0.06379 0.09298 0.13109 0.17890

Write down the critical region for John’s test.

(1 mark)

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4 (a) The probability of a student in a primary school library returning his or her books on time
had been found to be 0.35. Joanna, the school librarian, has started a new incentive scheme
and believes that more students are now returning their books on time because of it. She
= .
conducts a hypothesis test using the null hypothesis H : p 0 35 to test her belief
0

State a suitable alternative hypothesis to test Joanna’s belief that more students are now
returning their books on time.

(1 mark)

(b) Joanna takes a random sample of 30 students who have checked out books and finds that
under the new incentive scheme 15 of them return their books on time.

Write down the conditions under which Joanna could use a binomial probability distribution
to model this problem.

(2 marks)

(c) Calculate the p-value for the test.

(2 marks)

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5 (a) A study of ladybirds in the UK found that 65% of all ladybirds are found to be of the seven-
spot species. Alex believes that more than 65% of the ladybirds in his garden are of the
seven-spot species. He conducts a hypothesis test at the 5% significance level by collecting a
sample of 25 ladybirds from his garden and counting the number of them that are seven-
spot ladybirds.

Let p be the proportion of ladybirds in Alex's garden that are of the seven-spot species.
State suitable null and alternative hypotheses, in terms of p , that Alex could use to test his
belief.

(2 marks)

(b) Alex finds that 21 out of the 25 ladybirds in his sample are seven-spot ladybirds.

Calculate the p-value for the test.

(2 marks)

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6 (a) Wombats, some species of which are critically endangered, are Australian mammals with a
lifespan of up to 15 years in the wild. In general, wombats in captivity tend to live longer,
with the chance of a wombat in captivity living beyond 15 years being 50%.

Scientists in Australia report having found a population of wombats living in a nature reserve
that have longer than average lifespans. In fact, the scientists claim that wombats in the
reserve have a greater chance than captive wombats of living beyond 15 years. A group of
naturalists decides to conduct an experiment to test the scientists’ claim. They monitor a
random sample of 30 wombats from the reserve and record how long they live for.

State suitable null and alternative hypotheses to test the scientists’ claim.

(1 mark)

(b) It is decided to conduct the test at a significance level of 5%.

It is given that, for X ∼ B 30, 0 . 5 ,

( )

P X ≥ 19
( ) = 0 . 10024
P X ≥ 20
( ) = 0 . 04937
P X ≥ 21
( ) = 0 . 02139
(i) Write down the critical value for this test.

(ii) Write down the actual significance level for this test.

(2 marks)

(c) In the random sample of 30 wombats, it is found that 20 of them live to be over 15 years old.

Write a conclusion for the hypothesis test in the context of the question.

(2 marks)

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7 (a) Charlie, the owner of a chocolate shop, claims that more than 60% of people can tell the
difference between two brands of chocolate. Charlie takes a random sample of 150
customers and asks them to taste both brands of chocolate. He records that 103 of them
could successfully tell the difference between the two brands of chocolate.

State suitable null and alternative hypotheses to test Charlie’s claim.

(1 mark)

(b) Test, at the 10% level of significance, whether Charlie’s claim is justified.

(3 marks)

8 A single observation, x , is taken from a discrete random variable X ∼ B 25, p

( ) to test
H0 ∶ p = 0 . 2 against H1 ∶ p ≠ 0 . 2 .

The critical regions are chosen as being X ≤ 1 and X ≥ 9 .

Calculate the probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis when conducting this
test.

(4 marks)

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Medium Questions
1 Supplier B claims that when it supplies bags of sugar, the proportion of bags that are damp
is less than 8%.

The manufacturer takes a random sample of 70 bags of sugar from supplier B and finds
that only 2 of the bags are damp.

Carry out a suitable test to assess supplier B ’s claim.

You should state your hypotheses clearly and use a 10% level of significance.

(4 marks)

1
2 (a) A machine fills packets with sweets and of the packets also contain a prize.
7

The packets of sweets are placed in boxes before being delivered to shops.

There are 40 packets of sweets in each box.

The random variable T represents the number of packets of sweets that contain a prize in
each box.

1
B ⎜⎜ 40,
⎛ ⎞
State a condition needed for T to be modelled by
⎟
⎟

⎝
7 ⎠

(1 mark)

1
(b) Kamil claims that the proportion of packets containing a prize is less than .
7

A random sample of 110 packets is taken and 9 packets contain a prize.

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 Use a suitable test to assess Kamil’s claim.

You should

state your hypotheses clearly

use a 5% level of significance

(4 marks)

3 It is known that there is a 0.35% chance of picking up a virus when downloading a file from a
particular website. After a security update, a security analyst believes that the chances of
picking up a virus have been reduced. The analyst wishes to use a hypothesis test with a 5%
level of significance to test her belief.

In a sample of 1542 files downloaded from the website, 1 virus is detected.

Find the conclusion of the analyst's test. State the hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

4 (a) Harry is using the random variable X ∼ B 40, 0 . 55

( ) to test the hypotheses:

H0 : p = 0 . 55

H1 : p ≠ 0 . 55

Harry states that the critical regions are X ≤ 17 and X ≥ 27.

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 Calculate the probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis.

(3 marks)

(b) Sally is using the random variable Y ∼ B 75, 0 . 3

( ) to test the hypotheses:

H0 : p = 0 . 3

H1 : p > 0 . 3

Sally observes the value y = 30 for her test statistic.

(i) Calculate the p-value of the observed test statistic y = 30 .
(ii) State, with a reason, the conclusion of Sally’s test if a 5% level of significance is used.

(3 marks)

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5 (a) The existing treatment for a disease is known to be effective in 73% of cases. Dr Sabir
develops a new treatment which she claims is more effective than the existing one. To test
her claim she uses the new treatment on a sample of 60 patients with the disease and uses
a binomial distribution to model the number of them who are cured.

Explain two assumptions that Dr Sabir has made when using a binomial distribution to
model the number of patients in the sample cured by the vaccine.

(2 marks)

(b) Dr Sabir notes that her treatment was effective for 51 out of the 60 patients used in the
sample.

Test, at the 1% level of significance, the validity of Dr Sabir’s claim that her treatment is more
effective than the existing one. State your hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

(c) State whether the conclusion would be different if a 5% level of significance had been used
for this test instead of 1%. Give a reason for your answer.

(1 mark)

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6 (a) A “double yolker” is an egg which contains two yolks. It is stated that the probability of a
chicken laying a double yolker is 0.1%. A chicken farmer, Paolo, claims that double yolkers
are rarer than the stated 0.1%. To test his claim, Paolo records that his chickens lay 1217
eggs in a month and he uses these as his sample. He discovers that none of these eggs are
double yolkers.

Test, at the 5% level of significance, whether there is evidence to support Paolo’s claim that
double yolkers are rarer than 0.1%. State your hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

(b) Paolo decides to take a larger sample so extends his test to three months. During this time,
a sample of 3425 eggs is formed and none of them are double yolkers.

Show that there is evidence, at the 5% level of significance, to support Paolo’s claim that
double yolkers are rarer than 0.1%.

(3 marks)

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7 (a) It is known that 61% of male dragons eat more than 20 sheep within a day. Bill, a dragon
breeder, suspects that the proportion of female dragons that eat more than 20 sheep within
a day is different to males.

State suitable null and alternative hypotheses for a two-tailed test for Bill’s suspicion.

(1 mark)

(b) To test his suspicion, Bill observes a random sample of 80 female dragons during a full day
and counts how many sheep they each eat. He finds that 40 out of the 80 female dragons
ate more than 20 sheep within the day.

Test, at the 5% level, whether there is evidence to support Bill’s suspicion.

(3 marks)

(c) State whether the outcome of the test would have been different, at the 5% level, if Bill had
used a one-tailed test to check whether the proportion of females eating more than 20
sheep within a day is lower than the proportion of males. Give a reason for your answer.

(1 mark)

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Hard Questions
1 (a) Past information shows that 25% of adults in a large population have a particular allergy.

Rylan believes that the proportion that has the allergy differs from 25%.

He takes a random sample of 50 adults from the population.

Rylan carries out a test of the null hypothesis H

0
: p = 0 . 25 using a 5% level of significance.

Write down the alternative hypothesis for Rylan’s test.

(1 mark)

(b) Find the critical region for this test.

You should state the probability associated with each tail, which should be as close to 2.5%
as possible.

(4 marks)

(c) State the actual probability of incorrectly rejecting H for this test.
0

(1 mark)

(d) Rylan finds that 10 of the adults in his sample have the allergy.

State the conclusion of Rylan’s hypothesis test.

(1 mark)

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2 (a) A dentist knows from past records that 10% of customers arrive late for their appointment.

A new manager believes that there has been a change in the proportion of customers who
arrive late for their appointment.

A random sample of 50 of the dentist's customers is taken.

Write down

a null hypothesis corresponding to no change in the proportion of customers who

arrive late

an alternative hypothesis corresponding to the manager's belief

(1 mark)

(b) Using a 5% level of significance, find the critical region for a two-tailed test of the null
hypothesis in (a).

You should state the probability of rejection in each tail, which should be less than 0.025

(3 marks)

(c) Find the actual level of significance of the test based on your critical region from part (b).

(1 mark)

(d) The manager observes that 15 of the 50 customers arrived late for their appointment.

With reference to part (b), comment on the manager’s belief.

(1 mark)

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 3 At a school it is known that 80% of students achieve 3 or more A* to C grades in their A
levels. The principal claims that another local school has a different proportion of A* to C
grades at A level.

Last year the other school had 57 out of 80 students achieve 3 or more A* to C grades at A
level.

Using a two-tailed hypothesis test, test the principal’s claim at the 5% significance level
stating suitable null and alternative hypotheses.

(4 marks)

4 (a) On a particular Pokémon game, it is possible to create offspring through breeding.

Sometimes when two Pokémon are bred together, their offspring possess a hidden ability.

One Pokémon fan website, A , claims that the probability of producing offspring with a
hidden ability is 0.6. Another website, B , claims the probability is higher.

Maya conducts an experiment and finds that 38 out of 50 of her Pokémon’s offspring
possess a hidden ability.

Use Maya’s sample to test the claim of website A against website B at the 5% significance
level, stating your null and alternative hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

(b) Website C claims that the probability of producing offspring with a hidden ability is different
to 0.7.

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Using a two-tailed hypothesis test with the same sample, test the claim at the 5%
significance level.

(4 marks)

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5 (a) It is known that customers have an 83% success rate when attempting to order bundles of 5
or more festival tickets from a particular website. A second website claims that its
customers have a greater probability of success.

State suitable null and alternative hypotheses to test the second website’s claim.

(1 mark)

(b) In one day, 1159 out of 1358 bundles of 5 or more tickets are successfully ordered from the
second website.

Test the second website’s claim using a 1% significance level.

(3 marks)

(c) It is suggested that instead of using a 1% significance level for the test, the critical region
X ≥ 1150 could have been used for testing the second website’s claim against observed
data for the number of successes out of 1358 attempted orders.

Find the probability of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis if that critical region is used.

(2 marks)

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6 (a) Nguyen is using the large data set to investigate claims by a local newspaper that the chance
of rain on a given day in Leuchars is 18%. She believes that the probability of it raining on a
given day in Leuchars is different to 18%.

Nguyen includes all 368 days available in the large data set and finds that it rained on 80 of
those days.

Using a 5% level of significance, test Nguyen's belief. State your null and alternative
hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

(b) Using your knowledge of the large data set, give two reasons why the sample may not be
appropriate to test Nguyen's belief.

(2 marks)

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7 (a) Historic company data shows that the proportion of customers ordering a large vegetable
box from Lakebridge Organics is 0.4.

Last week a random sample of 35 customers’ orders was taken and it was found that 21 of
them had ordered a large vegetable box.

Test, at the 5% significance level, whether this suggests that the proportion of customers
ordering large vegetable boxes has increased. State your hypotheses clearly.

(4 marks)

(b) Historic company data shows that the proportion of customers ordering a medium
vegetable box is also 0.4. Lucinda, a delivery driver, suspects that the proportion of current
customers ordering medium boxes is different from 0.4. She takes a random sample of 40
customers’ orders.

(i) Identify the critical region for a hypothesis test at the 5% significance level. The probability
associated with each tail should be as close to 2.5% as possible.

(ii) State the actual level of significance of the test.

(iii) Of the 40 orders, 21 of them were for medium vegetable boxes. State whether this
supports Lucinda’s suspicion at the 5% level of significance.

(6 marks)

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Very Hard Questions
1 (a) A nursery has a sack containing a large number of coloured beads of which 14% are
coloured red.

Aliya takes a random sample of 18 beads from the sack to make a bracelet.

State a suitable binomial distribution to model the number of red beads in Aliya’s bracelet.

(1 mark)

(b) After several children have used beads from the sack, the nursery teacher decides to test
whether or not the proportion of red beads in the sack has changed.

She takes a random sample of 75 beads and finds 4 red beads.

Stating your hypotheses clearly, use a 5% significance level to carry out a suitable test for the
teacher.

(4 marks)

(c) Find the p‐value in this case.

(1 mark)

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2 (a) Nationally it is reported that four out of five people can write with their right hand. Edward,
an education researcher, takes a random sample of 30 children under the age of 18 years
old and records the number of them, X , who can write with their right hand.

If the national proportion applies to the sample, write down a suitable distribution for X .
State any assumptions that you make.

(3 marks)

(b) Edward believes that the proportion of children who can write with their right hand differs
from the national proportion for all people. To test his belief, he uses his sample of 30
children.

State suitable null and alternative hypotheses to test Edward’s belief.

(1 mark)

(c) Using a 10% level of significance, find the critical region for a two-tailed test for Edwards’
belief. You should state the probability of rejection for each tail, which should be less than
0.05 for each.

(4 marks)

(d) Find the actual level of significance of the test.

(1 mark)

(e) Out of the 30 children in the sample, Edward recorded that 20 of them write with their right
hand.

Comment on Edward’s belief based on this observation.

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 (2 marks)

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3 (a) The probability of a wild Asian elephant living past 40 years old is 45%.

Rosie, a zoologist, obtains data on 25 elephants in captivity and records their ages at death.
She suspects that the proportion of Asian elephants that live past 40 years old is smaller for
those in captivity than those in the wild.

Using a 1% level of significance, find the critical value of a one-tailed hypothesis test to
enable Rosie to test her suspicion. Clearly state your hypotheses.

(3 marks)

(b) Write down the actual level of significance for this test.

(1 mark)

(c) Given that the probability of an Asian elephant in captivity lives past 40 years old is actually
30%, find the probability that Rosie's test leads to the incorrect conclusion.

(3 marks)

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4 (a) A catering company’s past records show that the proportion of their customers who are
vegetarian has previously been 0.2. Alice, an employee, decides to take a random sample of
30 current customers to test whether that figure 0.2 is still valid for their current customer
base.

Let X denote the number of vegetarians in the sample.

Find the critical region for Alice's two-tailed test.

You should state the probability associated with each tail, which should be less than 5%.

(4 marks)

(b) Bob, another employee, claims that the proportion of vegetarian customers has increased.
Bob used the same sample to test his claim at the 5% level of significance.

Write down the critical region for Bob's test.

(1 mark)

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5 (a) A single observation is taken from a discrete random variable X ∼ B 25, p
( ) to test the
hypotheses

a a
H0 : p = H1 : p ≠
10 10

where a is a positive integer.

The probability of rejection for each tail of the critical region is as large as possible and at
most 5%.

Given that one tail of the critical region is X ≤ 5 , find the value of a .

(3 marks)

(b) Find the other tail of the critical region for the test.

(2 marks)

(c) Find the probability of incorrect rejecting the null hypothesis.

(1 mark)

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6 (a) A random variable has distribution X ∼ B 20, p
( ) .

In order to test the hypotheses

H0 ∶ p = 0 . 45 H1 ∶ p ≠ 0 . 45

a random observation of X is taken and found to be 5.

Carry out a hypothesis test at the 10% significance level.

(3 marks)

(b) Another random variable has distribution Y ∼ B m, p

( ) .

A random observation of is taken and found to be 1. Using the same hypotheses as above,
find the maximum value of m for which H would not be rejected at the 10% significance
0
level.

(2 marks)

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