ADAPTIVE TEACHING GUIDE

Most Essential Topic: Random Variables Lesson: Random Variables Mode of Delivery: F2F or (A/S) Online

Prerequisite Content Knowledge Prerequisite Skill

The learners recall the concepts on counting techniques and classical probability. The learners find the number of possible outcomes and the probability of a simple
event.

Prerequisite Assessment (Prompting Connections to Prior Knowledge)

Content Knowledge Skill
Directions: Complete the chart below by reflecting on your prior knowledge of the Directions: Write the letter of the correct answer and the solution on the box provided.
Fundamental Principle of Counting. This will help you prepare for our upcoming
lesson on random variables, which builds on your understanding of counting techniques. 1. A coin is flipped three times. How many different possible outcomes are there?
A. 6 B. 8 C. 9 D. 10
What I Know What I Want to Know

2. When rolling a die, let X be the number that comes up. What are the possible
values of X?
A. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 B. Odd numbers only C. Even numbers only D. Prime numbers
only

Sample Answer:
3. A bag contains 2 red, 3 green, and 5 blue balls. If a ball is drawn at random, what is
What I Know What I Want to Know the probability that it is green?
- I remember that if there - How does this help when A. 1/3 B. 1/10 C. 3/10 D. 3/5
are multiple steps, you learning about random
multiply the number of variables?
choices for each.

- Like: 3 shirts and 2 pants

= 3 × 2 = 6 outfits. 4. You roll two dice. What is the total number of possible outcomes?
A. 12 B. 18 C. 36 D. 6
- We use this instead of
listing all outcomes.
 5. Let X be the number of heads that appear when two coins are tossed. What values
can X take?
A. 0, 1, 2 B. 1, 2 C. H, T D. 0, 2

Answer:

1. B 2. A 3. C 4. C 5. A

Pre – Lesson Remediation Activity

For learners with Insufficient Level on Prerequisite Content-knowledge and/or For learners with Fairly Sufficient Level on Prerequisite Content-knowledge
Skill(s) and/or Skill(s)
Reading material and video tutorials to develop their level of content-knowledge and Drills for practice and time for sharing their understanding on counting techniques and
skills on counting techniques and classical probability. classical probability.

Drills for practice and feedback on the result of the pre-assessment. Feedback on the result of the pre-assessment.
Terminologies:
In probability, an experiment is an activity that can be done repeatedly and gives results which are called outcomes.
Examples:
Tossing a coin
Rolling a die
Drawing a card from a standard deck of cards
Picking a ball from a box of 20 balls

An event is the collection of one or more outcomes considered as a group.

Examples:
Getting a head when a coin is tossed
Getting an even number when a die is rolled
Getting a heart face card in a standard deck of cards
Getting a white ball from a box of 20 balls

Tree Diagram
One strategy that is useful in identifying the number of outcomes in an experiment is by drawing a tree diagram. A tree diagram is a visual tool that makes use of branching
connecting lines to represent a certain relationship between the events.
Example: Tossing of coin two (2) times
First Toss Second Toss Possible Outcomes
Fundamental Principle of Counting
In fundamental principle of counting, in a group of K experiments, if the first can be done in n 1 ways, the second can be done in n 2 ways, the third can be done in n3 ways, and
so until the Kth experiment, then the total number of ways in which the K experiments can be done in that order is n 1 x n2 x n3…nk.

Probability
Probability is the measure of certainty or uncertainty that an event will happen. If E is an event, then the probability that E will happen is denoted by P(E). If E is sure to happen,
then P(E) = 1; however, if E is impossible to happen, P(E) = 0. Thus, the probability of an event could only be from 0 to 1.

Probability is how likely something is to happen. One might also hear it called chance. Probability can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or percentages, or on a probability
scale.

Video Tutorials: [Link] and [Link]

Drills for Practice: [Link]
[Link]

Introduction

In this 60-minute lesson, the learners will explore the concept of random variables. They will learn how to distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables,
understand its real-life applications, and perform basic computations involving expected value, variance, and standard deviation for discrete random variables. These skills are
essential for interpreting data and making informed decisions based on uncertainty.
The lesson will guide learners in recognizing that random variables represent the possible outcomes of chance of events—just like the risks and choices they encounter in daily
life. Through meaningful examples and interactive activities, students will see how probability connects to real-world contexts such as games of chance, survey data, and
prediction scenarios. These insights will prepare them for more advanced tasks and help them make logical, data-based decisions in various settings.

If any questions or difficulties arise, learners may reach out to the teacher via email (abc@[Link]) or contact number (XXXX XXX XXXX) for clarification and support.

By the end of the session, students are expected to

a) differentiate between discrete and continuous random variables and describe their uses, and
b) calculate the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of discrete random variables.

Learners’ Experiential Learning

Formative Questions Lesson presentation, class recitation, and sharing of answers orally and through available resources (pen and paper, e-devices, LMS, padlet,
Google docs)
Chunk 1: The learners will be prompted to reflect on situations in their everyday lives where the outcome is uncertain. They will be encouraged to think
about moments like guessing on a test, joining a raffle, or deciding whether or not to bring an umbrella when the weather is unpredictable. These
How can the lesson be scenarios will help them realize that life is full of chances and uncertainty—and that they are constantly facing situations where the results are
applied to real-life situations? unknown.

From there, the learners will be introduced to the idea that mathematics can actually help make sense of this uncertainty. Through the activity
below, they will begin exploring how outcomes can be described using numbers, leading them naturally into the concept of random variables.
They will start to identify which situations involve randomness and how those situations might be represented mathematically. (Drawing Attention
to Meaning)

Activity: Chance Check: Can You Predict or Not?

The learners will examine each scenario and reflect on real-life situations involving uncertainty. For each item, the learners will:
• determine whether the outcome is certain or uncertain,
• identify if the possible outcomes can be listed, and
• decide whether numbers can be assigned to those outcomes.
Certain or Possible Can Outcomes Be
Scenario
Uncertain? Outcomes Assigned Numbers?
Tossing a coin
Number of siblings a
student has
Daily temperature in your
city
Picking a color from a bag
of marbles
Time you wake up on
weekends
 Height of your classmates

After completing the table, the learners answer the following questions:
• Which of these can be called random variables?
• Which are the countable outcomes?
• Which are measurable outcomes?

Answer:
Can Outcomes Be
Scenario Certain or Uncertain? Possible Outcomes
Assigned Numbers?
Yes (Example: Heads =
Tossing a coin Uncertain Heads, Tails
1, Tails = 0)
Number of siblings a Certain (varies by person,
0, 1, 2, 3, ... Yes
student has but fixed for that student)
Daily temperature in Any value within a Yes (measured in
Uncertain
your city range (e.g., 25–40°C) degrees)
Red, Blue, Green
Picking a color from Yes (Example: Red = 1,
Uncertain (depends on what’s
a bag of marbles Blue = 2, etc.)
inside)
Time you wake up Any time (e.g., 6:00 Yes (measured in
Uncertain
on weekends AM to 12:00 PM) hours/minutes)
Certain for each person,
Height of your e.g., 150 cm to 190 Yes (Example:
but varies across
classmates cm measured in cm)
individuals
Chunk 2: The learners will understand that random variables are numerical quantities assigned to the outcome of an experiment. They will also learn that
random variables are different from the traditional variable in terms of the value which it takes. It is a function which performs the mapping of the
How are random variables outcomes of a random process to a numeric value. It is not like the algebraic variable x + 2 = 7 where x = 5 (Using Examples and Non-
different from each other? Examples: Comparison between algebraic variables and random variables). As it subjects to randomness, it takes on different values. The
learners now differentiate discrete and continuous random variables.

They will learn in the process of their experiential learning that discrete random variables are random variables that can take only countable or
finite number of values, thus, can be obtained through the process of counting while continuous random variables are random variables that can
assume an infinite number of values in an interval between two specific values and these values are the results of measurements.

They will also learn how these are used in real life. Discrete random variables are helpful when counting things like the number of people, test
scores, or items sold. Continuous random variables are used when measuring things like height, time, or temperature. These help in making
predictions, solving problems, and making decisions based on data.
 To deepen understanding, the learners will have an activity where they are presented with real-life scenarios and asked to classify each as
involving either a discrete or continuous random variable. They will also be asked to justify their answers (Prompting for Effortful Thinking),
promoting critical thinking and the application of knowledge to real-world contexts.

Random Discrete or
Situation Justification
Variable Continuous?
Number of pets in a household X
Time it takes to finish a test Y
Number of missed school days in a
Z
month
Weight of a watermelon W
Number of questions a student gets
V
correct
Temperature in your classroom at
T
noon

Guide questions:
1. What patterns do you notice about discrete random variables?
2. How are continuous random variables different in terms of values they can take?
3. Why do we need to distinguish between these two types?

For Supplementary Learning Material: Learners may visit this link for additional examples [Link]

Chunk 3: The learners will now learn how to describe a random variable using numbers. They will understand that although outcomes may be uncertain,
we can still calculate what we expect to happen on average — this is called the expected value (or mean).
If we know all the possible
outcomes of a situation and To go further, the learners will also explore how much the possible outcomes differ from this expected value. This is measured using variance
how likely each one is, how and standard deviation, which help us understand the spread or variability of outcomes.
can we tell what to expect on
average—and how much the The teacher will give real-life examples, such as a game with prizes or the number of correct answers in a quiz, to help learners connect the
results might vary from that new lesson to something familiar. Learners will be guided through solving simple problems with explanations (Prompting for Effortful
average? Thinking).

Afterward, learners will try on their own. They will solve problems where they are given a set of values with probabilities, and they will compute
the expected value, variance, and standard deviation. They will also be asked to create their own situation and perform the necessary
computations and interpretation. (Drawing Attention to Meaning).
Formulas:
𝒏
Expected Value
𝑬(𝑿) = ∑ 𝒙𝒊 · 𝒑(𝒙𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏
Variance

Standard Deviation

Examples:
1. Suppose that in tossing 2 coins, you will receive ₱100 if two heads appear. Otherwise, you will pay ₱25.
Is this game fair? Compute the expected value, variance, and standard deviation then explain your answers.

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Outcomes X (No. of Heads)

HH 2
HT 1
TH 1
TT 0

𝑬(𝑿) = ∑ 𝒙𝒊 · 𝒑(𝒙𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏

1 3
𝐸(𝑋) = 100 ( ) + (−25) ( )
4 4

= 25 + (-18.75)
 = ₱6.25
Interpretation: A positive value indicates that there is a higher chance of winning. The expected payoff for each toss is 6.25php which means
that each toss has an average win of 6.25php in the long run. Thus, the game is NOT FAIR since it favors the player.

𝜎 2 = [(100)²(0.25) + (-25)²(0.75)] – (6.25)²

= 2968.75 - 39.0625

= ₱2929.6875

σ = √2929.6875 ≈ ₱54.13

Interpretation: The high standard deviation of approximately ₱54.13 indicates that there is a large variability in the outcomes. This means the
player's winnings can vary greatly from game to game, showing that while the game has a positive expected value, it also carries significant
risk.

2. A player rolls a fair six-sided die. If the die shows a 6, the player wins ₱50. If it shows a 4 or 5, they win ₱20. Otherwise, they lose ₱10. Find
the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of the game.

E(X) = ₱5.00
Interpretation: The expected value means that if a player were to play the game many times, they would earn an average of ₱5.00
per game. This doesn’t mean they’ll win ₱5 every time—some rounds will give more, some less—but over time, it averages out to
a ₱5 gain per play.
𝝈𝟐 = ₱816.67
σ = ₱28.58
Interpretation: A standard deviation of ₱28.58 means that the outcomes of the game have high variability. While the expected gain
is ₱5.00, the actual results can differ greatly from game to game.

3. A delivery service has data showing that the number of packages delivered by a rider per day follows this distribution:

Number of Deliveries Probability

(X) P(X)
2 0.10
3 0.25
 4 0.40
5 0.15
6 0.10

E(X) = 3.6
Interpretation: The computed expected value indicates that there is a higher chance of delivering approximately 4 packages in a
day.
𝟐
𝝈 = 0.84
σ = 0.92
Interpretation: The computed standard deviation of approximately 0.92 indicates that the number of deliveries ranges from 3-5
packages in a day.

4. A teacher tracks how many questions students typically get correct out of a 5-item quiz. The distribution is:

Correct Answers Probability

(X) P(X)
0 0.05
1 0.10
2 0.25
3 0.30
4 0.20
5 0.10

E(X) = 2.85
Interpretation: The expected value of 2.85 means that on average, students get about 2.85 questions correct out of 5 on the quiz.
𝝈𝟐 = 1.63
σ = 1.28
Interpretation: While the average score is 2.85, the standard deviation of 1.28 tells us that most students tend to score between
about 2 (1.6) to 4 (4.1) correct answers. This means students' scores usually fall within a range of about one point above or below
the average, showing a moderate level of consistency in their performance.

Synthesis In this lesson, the learners learned that random variables assign numbers to outcomes. They can be discrete (countable like number of pets) or
continuous (measurable like height). They also learned how to find the expected value (average outcome), variance, and standard deviation (how
spread out the outcomes are). These help us understand and make better decisions based on data.

Guide Questions:
 1. What is the difference between discrete and continuous random variables? (Sample Answer: A discrete random variable has specific,
countable values (like 0, 1, 2), while a continuous random variable can take any value within a range (like height or weight))
2. Why is it helpful to know if a random variable is discrete or continuous? (Sample Answer: It helps us choose the right methods to analyze
data. For example, we use different formulas and graphs depending on whether the data is countable or measured.)
3. What do expected value, variance, and standard deviation tell us? (Sample Answer: The expected value shows the average outcome,
the variance tells how spread out the values are, and the standard deviation shows how much the values usually differ from the average.)
4. Where can you use these ideas in real life? (Sample Answer: These are useful in things like predicting grades, planning budgets,
understanding risk in games or investments, and analyzing surveys or test results.)

RUA of Students’ Learning Part I: Discrete vs. Continuous Random Variables (10 points)

A. Read each situation carefully. Write whether the random variable is Discrete or Continuous. Then explain your answer in one sentence. (2
points each)
1. The number of calls received by a call center in one day.
2. The height of each student in a Grade 11 class.
3. The number of correct answers in a 10-item quiz.
4. The time it takes to commute to school.
5. The total number of pages in different novels in a library.

Part II: Expected Value, Variance, and Standard Deviation (20 points)
Solve the following problems. Show complete solutions.
1. A game has the following outcomes:
- Win ₱100 with probability 0.2
- Win ₱50 with probability 0.3
- Win ₱0 with probability 0.5

Let X be the amount you win. Compute for the expected value, variance, and standard deviation, then interpret the results.

2. The random variable X represents the number of defective cellphones in every 100 cellphones. The probability distribution is given below:
X (Number of Defective 0 1 2 3
Cellphones)
P(X) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Compute for the expected value, variance, and standard deviation, then interpret the results.

Post – Lesson Remediation Activity

Part 1: Review and Recall
Instructions: Match each description in Column A with the correct term from Column B.

Column A Column B
 1. Takes on values that are measurable A. Expected Value
and fall within an interval.
2. Takes only countable, whole-number B. Discrete Random Variable
outcomes.
3. The long-run average value of a C. Continuous Random Variable
random variable.
4. Measures how spread out the values D. Standard Deviation
are from the mean.
5. Square root of the variance. E. Variance

Part 2: Real-Life Sorting

Instructions: Identify whether each situation describes a discrete or continuous random variable. Write your answer and explain briefly.

1. The number of books a student reads in a semester.

2. The amount of rainfall in a day measured by millimeters.
3. The number of students present in class today.
4. The height of mango trees on a farm.

Part 3: Compute and Interpret

A game involves drawing a card from a box. You win ₱150 if you draw a red card (probability = 0.3), lose ₱50 if you draw a black card (probability = 0.5), and neither win nor
lose if you draw a blue card (probability = 0.2).

Tasks:
- Construct the probability distribution table.
- Compute the expected value, variance, and standard deviation.
- Interpret the expected value. Is the game favorable to you?
Notes:
Current vs Revised SHS Curriculum
1. Number of Learning Competencies and Time Frame
• Current Curriculum: Has 10 learning competencies with around 180 minutes of instruction and 2 Adaptive Teaching Guides (ATGs).
• Revised Curriculum: Has 2 learning competencies with only 60 minutes of instruction using 1 Adaptive Teaching Guide (ATG).
Current SHS Curriculum Revised SHS Curriculum
The learner: The learners:
1. illustrates a random variable (discrete and continuous); 1. differentiate between discrete and continuous random variables and describe
2. distinguishes between a discrete and a continuous random variable their uses.
3. finds the possible values of a random variable 2. calculate the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of discrete
4. illustrates a probability distribution for a discrete random variable and its random variables.
properties
5. constructs the probability mass function of a discrete random variable
and its corresponding histogram
6. computes probabilities corresponding to a given random variable
7. illustrates the mean and variance of a discrete random variable
8. calculates the mean and the variance of a discrete random variable
9. interprets the mean and the variance of a discrete random variable
10. solves problems involving mean and variance of probability distributions

2. Prerequisite Content Knowledge, Skills, and Pre-Assessment

3. Lesson Presentation and Examples