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Probability Concepts and Examples

This document is a tutorial on probability, covering various problems related to probability calculations. It includes scenarios involving random selection of clothing items, disease testing probabilities, weather classifications, coin toss outcomes, and true/false statements about probability principles. Each problem requires applying probability concepts to determine specific outcomes or validate statements.

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6 views1 page

Probability Concepts and Examples

This document is a tutorial on probability, covering various problems related to probability calculations. It includes scenarios involving random selection of clothing items, disease testing probabilities, weather classifications, coin toss outcomes, and true/false statements about probability principles. Each problem requires applying probability concepts to determine specific outcomes or validate statements.

Uploaded by

10725019
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Introduction to Probability

Tutorial 5

1. An item of clothing is picked at random from one of two drawers in a dark room. The
rst drawer contains 6 socks and 6 ties, and the other contains 2 socks and 4 handkerchiefs.
What is the probability that the item comes from the rst drawer if it turns out to be a
sock?

2. Suppose it is known that 1% of the population suers from a particular disease. A blood
test has a 97% chance of identifying the disease for diseased individuals, but also has a 6%
chance of falsely indicating that a healthy person has the disease.
(a) What is the probability that a person will have a positive blood test?
(b) If your blood test is positive, what is the chance that you have the disease?
(c) If your blood test is negative, what is the chance that you do not have the disease?

3. The weather on a particular day is classied as either cold, warm or hot. There is a proba-
bility of 0.15 that it is cold and a probability of 0.25 that it is warm. In addition, on each
day it may either rain or not rain. On cold days there is a probability of 0.3 that it will
rain, on warm days there is a probability of 0.4 that it will rain, and on hot days there is
a probability of 0.5 that it will rain. If it is not raining on a particular day, what is the
probability that it is cold?

4. You have two coins, a fair one with probability of heads 12 and an unfair one with probability
of heads 31 , but otherwise identical. A coin is selected at random and tossed, falling heads
up. How likely is it that it is the fair one?

5. Are the following statements true or false?


(a) If a fair coin is tossed three times, the probability of obtaining two heads and one tail
is the same as the probability of obtaining one head and two tails.
(b) If a card is drawn at random from a deck of cards, the probability that it is a heart
increases if it is conditioned on the knowledge that it is an ace.
(c) If two events are independent, then the probability that they both occur can be
calculated by multiplying their individual probabilities.
(d) It is always true that P (A|B) + P (A′ |B) = 1.
(e) It is always true that P (A|B) + P (A|B ′ ) = 1.
(f) It is always true that P (A|B) ≤ P (A).

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