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Probability Concepts and Calculations Guide

This tutorial covers various probability problems, including calculating probabilities of drawing cards, independent events, and the Monty Hall problem. It explores scenarios with and without replacement, as well as the implications of independent events in real-world situations like insurance claims. Additionally, it includes calculations related to rolling dice and the operation of switches in a network.

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5 views2 pages

Probability Concepts and Calculations Guide

This tutorial covers various probability problems, including calculating probabilities of drawing cards, independent events, and the Monty Hall problem. It explores scenarios with and without replacement, as well as the implications of independent events in real-world situations like insurance claims. Additionally, it includes calculations related to rolling dice and the operation of switches in a network.

Uploaded by

10725019
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Introduction to Probability

Tutorial 4

1. Two cards are chosen from a pack of cards without replacement. Calculate the probabilities:

(a) Both are picture cards.


(b) Both are from red suits.
(c) One card is from a red suit and one card is from a black suit.

Repeat the above calculation when the second drawing is made with replacement.
Compare your answers in the 2 cases.

2. When a company receives an order, there is a probability of 0.42 that its value is over $1000.
If an order is valued at over $1000, then there is a probability of 0.63 that the customer will
pay with a credit card.

(a) What is the probability that the next 3 independent orders will each be valued at
over $1000?
(b) What is the probability that the next order will be valued at over $1000 but will not
be paid with a credit card?

3. Show that if the events A and B are independent events, then so are the events
(a) A and B ′ (b) A′ and B (c) A′ and B ′

4. Suppose that an insurance company insures its clients for ood damage to the property.
Can the company reasonably expect that the claims from its clients will be independent of
each other?

5. (a) If a fair die is rolled 5 times, what is the probability that the numbers obtained are
all even numbers?
(b) If a fair die is rolled 3 times, what is the probability that the 3 numbers obtained are
all dierent?

1
6. Consider the network given in the gure with three switches. Suppose that the switches
operate independently of each other and that switch 1 allows a message through with prob-
ability 0.88, switch 2 allows a message through with probability 0.92 and switch 3 allows a
message through with probability 0.90. What is the probability that a message will nd a
route through the network?

7. (Monty Hall problem, for fun only) Suppose you are on a game show, and you are given
the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a
door, say Door 1, and the host, who knows what is behind the doors, opens another door,
say Door 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick Door 2?" Is it to
your advantage to switch your choice?

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