INTRODUCTION ON MODELLING & SIMULATION
Tutorial 1
Introduction
Living in the age of technology has implications for everyone
entering the business world.
oTechnology makes it possible to collect huge amounts of data.
oTechnology has given more people the power and responsibility to analyze data and make
decisions.
A large amount of data already exists and will increase in the future.
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System Definition
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System
• Facility or process, actual or planned.
• Examples abound …
oManufacturing facility
oBank operations
oAirport operations (passengers, security, planes, crews, baggage)
oTransportation/logistics/distribution operation
oHospital facilities (emergency room, operating room, admissions)
oComputer network
oBusiness process (insurance office)
oChemical plant
oFast-food restaurant
oSupermarket
oTheme park
oEmergency-response system
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Types of systems
Systems can be classified as:
oDeterministic system
oProbabilistic system /Stochastic system
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Deterministic System
• Is a system that functions according to some predefined/ predetermined
procedures.
• Their future behavior can be predicted accurately or with 100% certainty
depending on the situation events.
• Is a system where you can foretell their output by their input.
• Examples:
EOQ calculation or inventory management system
Total cost calculation
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Probabilistic and Stochastic Systems
• System which depends on probability.
• You cannot foretell their future behavior with 100%
accuracy/certainty.
• Expected output from its input cannot be predicted because they
have a variety of uncertainties, therefore a lot of control effort need
to be directed to these systems.
• Stochastic systems must adapt to the environment for their survival.
They adapt and react to inputs. The method of adaptation is
uncertain, and the same inputs do not always produce the same
responses.
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Work With the System?
• Study the system –measure, improve, design, control
• Maybe just play with the actual system
oAdvantage —unquestionably looking at the right thing
• But it’s often impossible to do so in reality with the actual system
oSystem doesn’t exist
oWould be disruptive, expensive, or dangerous
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Using Models to Study Systems
• Model–set of assumptions/approximations about how the system works.
oStudy the model instead of the real system … usually much easier, faster,
cheaper, safer.
oCan try wide-ranging ideas with the model.
• Make your mistakes on the computer/ paper where they don’t count, rather
than for real where they do count.
oOften, just building the model is instructive –regardless of results.
oModel validity
• Care in building to mimic reality faithfully
• Level of detail
• Get same conclusions from the model as you would from system
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Modeling
• A model is an abstraction of a real problem that tries to capture the essence
and key features of the problem.
o Imitation of reality
• There are different types of models, and
each can be a valuable aid in solving a
real problem:
o Graphical models (Conceptual models)
o Descriptive models
o Physical models (iconic models)
o Algebraic models (Mathematical models)
• OR models
• Spreadsheet models
• Simulation models
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Examples Of Optimizers
• [Link]
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Studying Logical Models
• If model is simple enough, use traditional mathematical analysis …
get exact results, lots of insight into model
o Differential equations
o Linear Programming
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• But complex systems can seldom be validly represented by a simple
analytic model
o Danger of over-simplifying assumptions … model validity?
o Working on the wrong problem!!!
• Often, a complex system requires a complex model, and analytical
methods don’t apply … what to do?
Simulation
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Simulation
• Very broad term –methods and
applications to imitate or mimic real
systems, usually via computer.
• Flexibility to model things as they are
(even if messy and complicated)
• Simulation is applied for all kinds of
processes.
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Case Study: Trying different scenarios
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Case Study: Optimization
Background: A consortium of companies producing alloy
additives for iron casting faced challenges in optimizing
their supply chain. They had 3 plants (M1, M2, M3) with a
total production capacity of 230 tons, while the foundries’
demand was only 200 tons. This created excess production
that needed to be stored.
Problem: Minimizing the total cost (Manufacturing cost +
Transportation cost+ inventory cost) by allocating
production, transportation, and storage.
Solution: A model was built to represent the plants,
foundries, and warehouse. Decision variables were defined
for how much each plant should deliver to each foundry or
store in the warehouse. The optimization module was used
to search for the best allocation scenario. After running
multiple simulations, the optimal solution was found: M1
supplies N3 and N4.M2 supplies N1 and stores part of its
production.M3 supplies N2 and stores part of its
production. The optimal plan reduced the total cost to
256,670 monetary units, saving about 6,000 units
compared to the worst-case allocation. 17
Case Study: Finding Bottlenecks
Problem: A cold-chain distribution center for perishable
goods (fruits and vegetables) was facing major
inefficiencies: Excessive internal transportation and a low
level of automation. Poor warehouse layout design that
increased handling time. Random storage practices, which
placed items far from dispatch areas. Severe bottlenecks:
Conveyor 25 was blocked 38.6% of the time despite a
utilization rate of only 28.6%.Operator 29 (responsible for
storage) had an idle rate of 96.3%.As a result, the overall
turnover rate of goods was only 38%, creating risks of
delays and product spoilage.
Implemented improvements: Added an extra ASRS vehicle
and an additional processor in the distribution area.
Replaced Operator 29 with a forklift to reduce idle labor.
Changed storage rules from random allocation to shortest-
distance allocation. Introduced a staging area before
distribution to balance flows.
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COMPONENTS OF A SYSTEM
• Entity: is an object of interest in the system or The object that interacts with
the system
• Attribute: is a characteristic of all entities, but with a specific value “local”
to the entity that can differ from one entity to another.
• Resources: The components needed to carry out specific systematic tasks.
• Variable: A piece of information that reflects some characteristic of the
whole system, not of specific entities
• State: A collection of variables that contains all the information necessary
to describe the system at any time
• Event: An instantaneous occurrence that changes the state of the system
• Activity: represents a time period of specified length or The acts carried out
by system entities
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MANUAL MODELING
• By hand
• Example
Assume that public transportation busses arrive at a 24-hour working central
mechanic service center of the transportation authority, having one mechanic
team working on a single bay; to have some maintenance activities
performed. They tried to model the client's arrival to study their waiting time
and number in queue and to know if they need more service centers. Study the
system to 5 arrivals.
Arrival Interarrival Next Starting Interservice Finish time Wq Ws Lq Ls
Time time arrival service time time
0 0.05 0.042
0.488 0.062
0.081 0.161
0.357 0.217
0.309 0.413
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