Regression Analysis and Forecasting Techniques
Regression Analysis and Forecasting Techniques
a) scatter diagram
12
10 y = 0.7051x - 2.8718
R² = 0.9888
8
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
)
Exercise 12-3
Expenses generate units
(x) (y) x squared y squared (x)(y)
191 40 36481 1600 7640
170 42 28900 1764 7140
272 53 73984 2809 14416
155 35 24025 1225 5425
280 56 78400 3136 15680
173 39 29929 1521 6747
234 48 54756 2304 11232
116 30 13456 900 3480
153 37 23409 1369 5661
178 40 31684 1600 7120
total 1922 420 395024 18228 84541
a) Develop a regression equation for cost accounting
b) Forecast the overhead costs when 50 units are produced
c) Calculate the standard error of the estimate
a)
linear regression diagram.
60
50 y = 0.149x + 13.36
R² = 0.9673
40
30
20
10
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
b)
Y = a + bx y = 0.149x + 13.36
R² = 0.9673
c) Standard error
∈ 2− ∈ − ∈ .
=√
−2
-1109109.796
=√
10 −2
SE=131.6
12-13 for the following data:
a) Draw a scatter diagram
b) Develop the estimation equation that best fits the data
c) Forecast Y for X = 6, 13.4, 20.5
REGRESSION DIAGRAM
A)
100
80 y = 3.8303x + 1.4676
R² = 0.978
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
B1=3.8303
B2=1.4676
Column1 Column2
C) Y=A+BX X Y
6 24.44
13.4 52.79
20.5 79.98
EQUATIONOF
REGRESSION
100
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
X y X squared Y squared (X)(Y)
11.6 50.48 134.56 2548.2304 585.568
10.9 47.8 118.81 2284.84 521.02
18.4 71.5 338.56 5112.25 1315.6
19.7 81.26 388.09 6603.1876 1600.822
12.3 50.1 151.29 2510.01 616.23
6.8 39.4 46.24 1552.36 267.92
13.8 52.8 190.44 2787.84 728.64
93.5 393.34 1367.99 23398.718 5635.8
90
80
y = 3.2066x + 13.36
70 R² = 0.9446
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Y=A+BX
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2
y = 3.2066x + 13.36
R² = 0.9446 Column1 Column2
B1=3.8303 X Y
B2=1.4676 6 33.59
13.4 56.32
Y=A+BX 20.5 79.09
REGRESSION EQUATION
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
X Y X squared Y squared XY
16 -4.4 256 19.36 -70.4
6 8 36 64 48
10 2.1 100 4.41 21
5 8.7 24 75.69 43.5
12 0.1 144 0.01 1.2
14 -2.9 196 8.41 -40.6
Scatter diagram
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
-2
-4
y = -1.2471x + 15.028
-6 R² = 0.9938
∑ −(∑ )(∑ )
b= 2
∑ −(∑ )²
b= 62- (63)(11.6)
6 757 −(63)²
b= -1.247
∑ ∑
= −
= 11.6-(-1.247)10.5
6
a= 15.02
Y = 15.02 - 1.24x
c) Forecast Y for X= 5,6,7.
Y= 15.02-1.24(5)= 8.82
Y= 15.02-1.24(6)= 7.58
Y = 15.02 - 1.24(7) = 6.34
X Y
5 8.82
6 7.58
7 6.34
Regression Equation
10
0
0 2 4 6 8
Exercise 12-15
X Y
56 45
48 38.5
42 34.5
58 46.1
40 33.3
39 32.1
50 40.4
a) Find the line of best fit
Scatter plot
Y
50
45
40
35 y = 0.7339x + 3.6467
30 R² = 0.9982
25
Y
20
15
10
5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Estimation Equation
∑ −(∑ )(∑ )
b= 2
∑ −(∑ )²
∑ ∑
= −
= 269.9-(-0-7339)47.5714
7
a=3.6467
PRONOSTIQUE X PARA Y : 56,58,54
X Y
56 44.71
58 46.17
54 40.33
Exercise 12-16
Years
Rate of
Employee of Y2 xy
efficiency
service
Jones 1 6 X3 216 6
Orlando 20 5 X4 125 100
6 3 5 27 18
Irreland X
Smith 8 5 X6 125 40
Cord 2 2 X7 8 4
1 2 8 8 2
Haper X
López 15 4 X9 64 60
Sobecki 8 3 X10 27 24
11
X
1.- What is the dependent variable?
Dependent variable = efficiency rate
Chart Title
7
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
3.- Based on the scatter diagram, is there any relationship between the years of service?
and the efficiency?
If there is a weak positive relationship
Chart title
8
2
y = 0.0765x + 3.1664
0 R² = 0.1247
0 5 10 15 20 25
4.- Determine the regression equation
y = a + bx
y= 0.0765x + 3.1664
R² = 0.1247
5.- determine the correlation
r = n∑ − (∑ )(∑ )
√[ ∑ 2− ∑ ][2 ∑ 2− (∑ )2
r= 0.3531
Height
del Launch no
X squared Y squared XY
opponent regressed (l)
(H)
5 9 25 81 45
5.5 6 30.25 36 33
6 3 36 9 18
6.5 0 42.25 0 0
5 7 25 49 35
∑=28 ∑=25 ∑=158.5 ∑=175 ∑=131
10 y = 0.8265x
0
0 2 4 6 8
y = 0.8265x
12-18. A study conducted by the Atlanta Department of Transportation,
Georgia, about the bus ticket prices regarding the number of
passengers produced the following results
Precio del boleto (centavos) 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Passengers per 100 miles 800 780 780 660 640 600 620 620
Passenger Price
N° ticket for 100 X squared Y squared xy
(cents) miles
1 25 800 625 640,000 20,000
2 30 780 900 608,400 23,400
3 35 780 1225 608,400 27,300
4 40 660 1600 435,600 26,400
5 45 640 2025 409,600 28,800
6 50 600 2500 360,000 30,000
7 55 620 3025 384,400 34,100
8 60 620 3600 384,400 37,200
S= 8 340 5500 15500 3,830,800 227,200
Regression equation
Y = a + bx -6.23809524
S −( S )( )
B=
S ² −( S )²
Correlation equation
S ( S )(S )
R= -0.90808149
(S )(S ²)]
Scatter plot
ticket price x
passengers per 100 miles and
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Exercise 12-19
a) Graph data
b) develop an equation that best describes the relationship between the number of
interruptions and the grading of the test
nxy=3420
nx2=1800
bx=42
a = y - bx
a=28.5- (-42)=70.5
b=Σxy−nxy
Σx² - nx²
b=2580−3420
2100−1800
b=-2.8
y=a+b(x)
y=70.5+(-2.8)(18)=20.1
8884−16074−(−7224)
E=√
8−2
2.38
Exercise 12-20
Level of Degree of
X2 Y2 XY
noise anxiety
4 39 16 1521 156
3 38 9 1444 114
1 16 1 256 16
2 18 4 324 36
6 41 36 1681 246
7 45 49 2025 315
2 25 4 625 50
3 38 9 1444 114
∑=28 260 128 9320
Degree of anxiety
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
b= ∑ − (∑ )(∑ ) =∑ − ∑
∑ 2− (∑ )2
Y = 13.4 + 4.56x
c) Predict the level of anxiety we could obtain when the noise level is 5
R= 13.4+4.56(5)=24.4
Exercise 12-21
A management company is administering a test to its salespeople in training.
to sell before going to work. The management of the company is
interested in determining the relationship between test scores and the
sales achieved by those sellers at the end of a year of work. They
they collected the following data from 10 sales agents who have been in
the field a year.
a) regression line
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
correlation
= −
[n( x²)-( x)²][[n( y²)-( y)²] Reference error!
12-22 The city council of Bowie, Maryland, has gathered
data on the number of minor traffic accidents and the number of articles
youth soccer that takes place in the city on the weekend.
S
X (football matches) 20 30 10 12 15 25 34 146
y (minor accidents) 6 9 4 5 7 8 9 48
Data graph
12
10
6
y = 0.3101x
R² = 0.5391
4
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Estimation equation:
y = a + b1*x1 + b2*x2
y=0.3101x
R2= 0.5391
12-23 In economics, the demand function for a product at
sales are estimated using a regression of the quantity sold
(Q) about the price (P). The company Bamsy is trying to
300
250
200
150 y = 35.971x
R² = 0.7822
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Equation of
estimation:
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2
Exercise 12-24
spent (thousands of d
percentage of pollutants
8.4 35.9
10.2 31.8
16.5 24.7
21.7 25.2
9.4 36.8
8.3 35.8
11.5 33.4
18.4 25.4
16.7 31.4
19.3 27.4
28.4 15.8
4.7 31.5
12.3 28.9
The dependent variables are X = Causes in this case Money spent (thousands of dollars).
The independent variables are Y = Effect in this case Percentage of contaminants.
Scatter diagram
40
35 y = -0.7821x + 40.717
R² = 0.773
30
25
Series1
20
Linear
15
(Series1)
10
0
0 10 20 30
∆= (12.6/28) (9/2)
∆= (0.45) (4.5)
∆= 2.025 = 0.02%