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Regression Analysis and Forecasting Techniques

The document presents a dataset with values of x and y. It requests: 1) To plot a scatter diagram of the data. 2) To develop the linear regression equation that best describes the relationship between x and y. 3) To forecast values of y for different values of x using the regression equation.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
8 views24 pages

Regression Analysis and Forecasting Techniques

The document presents a dataset with values of x and y. It requests: 1) To plot a scatter diagram of the data. 2) To develop the linear regression equation that best describes the relationship between x and y. 3) To forecast values of y for different values of x using the regression equation.

Translated by

ScribdTranslations
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

12-2 for the following dataset:

a) Draw a scatter plot.


b) Develop the estimation equation that best describes the data.
c) Forecast Y for X = 10, 15, 20.

x y x squared y^2 (x)(y)


13 6.2 169 38.44 80.6
16 8.6 256 73.96 137.6
14 7.2 196 51.84 100.8
11 4.5 121 20.25 49.5
17 9 289 81 153
9 3.5 81 12.25 31.5
13 6.5 169 42.25 84.5
17 9.3 289 86.49 158.1
18 9.5 324 90.25 171
12 5.7 144 32.49 68.4
sum 140 70 2038 529.22 1035

a) scatter diagram
12

10 y = 0.7051x - 2.8718
R² = 0.9888
8

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

b) Write the equation here. (∈ ) − (∈ )(∈ )


Regression equation: y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 =
∈ 2− ∈ 2( ∈ 2− ∈ 2
Y=a+bx y = 0.7051x - 2.8718
R² = 0.9888

b1=0.7051 r^2 = 0.9888


b2 = -2.8718
c) y = 0.7051x - 2.8718
regression equation x y
10 7.051
20 15 10.57
10 20 14.1

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
)
Exercise 12-3
Expenses generate units
(x) (y) x squared y squared (x)(y)
191 40 36481 1600 7640
170 42 28900 1764 7140
272 53 73984 2809 14416
155 35 24025 1225 5425
280 56 78400 3136 15680
173 39 29929 1521 6747
234 48 54756 2304 11232
116 30 13456 900 3480
153 37 23409 1369 5661
178 40 31684 1600 7120
total 1922 420 395024 18228 84541
a) Develop a regression equation for cost accounting
b) Forecast the overhead costs when 50 units are produced
c) Calculate the standard error of the estimate

a)
linear regression diagram.
60

50 y = 0.149x + 13.36
R² = 0.9673
40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

b)
Y = a + bx y = 0.149x + 13.36
R² = 0.9673

c) Standard error

∈ 2− ∈ − ∈ .
=√
−2

-1109109.796
=√
10 −2
SE=131.6
12-13 for the following data:
a) Draw a scatter diagram
b) Develop the estimation equation that best fits the data
c) Forecast Y for X = 6, 13.4, 20.5

X y X squared Y squared (X)(Y


2.7 16.76 7.29 280.8976 45.252
4.8 16.92 23.04 286.2864 81.216
5.6 22.3 31.36 497.29 124.88
18.4 71.8 338.56 5155.24 1321.12
19.6 80.88 384.16 6541.5744 1585.248
21.5 81.4 462.25 6625.96 1750.1
18.7 77.46 349.69 6000.0516 1448.502
14.3 48.7 204.49 2371.69 696.41
105.6 416.22 1800.84 27758.99 7052.728

REGRESSION DIAGRAM
A)
100
80 y = 3.8303x + 1.4676
R² = 0.978
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25

B) Y=A+BX b = (n(εxy) - (εx)(ϵy)) / (n(εx^2) - (εx)^2)


y = a + b1x1 + b2x2
y = 3.8303x + 1.4676

B1=3.8303
B2=1.4676

Column1 Column2
C) Y=A+BX X Y
6 24.44
13.4 52.79
20.5 79.98

EQUATIONOF
REGRESSION
100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
X y X squared Y squared (X)(Y)
11.6 50.48 134.56 2548.2304 585.568
10.9 47.8 118.81 2284.84 521.02
18.4 71.5 338.56 5112.25 1315.6
19.7 81.26 388.09 6603.1876 1600.822
12.3 50.1 151.29 2510.01 616.23
6.8 39.4 46.24 1552.36 267.92
13.8 52.8 190.44 2787.84 728.64
93.5 393.34 1367.99 23398.718 5635.8

90
80
y = 3.2066x + 13.36
70 R² = 0.9446
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Y=A+BX
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2
y = 3.2066x + 13.36
R² = 0.9446 Column1 Column2
B1=3.8303 X Y
B2=1.4676 6 33.59
13.4 56.32
Y=A+BX 20.5 79.09

REGRESSION EQUATION
100

80

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
X Y X squared Y squared XY
16 -4.4 256 19.36 -70.4
6 8 36 64 48
10 2.1 100 4.41 21
5 8.7 24 75.69 43.5
12 0.1 144 0.01 1.2
14 -2.9 196 8.41 -40.6

a) Draw a scatter plot

Scatter diagram
10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
-2

-4
y = -1.2471x + 15.028
-6 R² = 0.9938

b) Develop the estimation equation

∑ −(∑ )(∑ )
b= 2
∑ −(∑ )²

b= 62- (63)(11.6)
6 757 −(63)²

b= -1.247

∑ ∑
= −

= 11.6-(-1.247)10.5
6

a= 15.02
Y = 15.02 - 1.24x
c) Forecast Y for X= 5,6,7.
Y= 15.02-1.24(5)= 8.82
Y= 15.02-1.24(6)= 7.58
Y = 15.02 - 1.24(7) = 6.34

X Y
5 8.82
6 7.58
7 6.34

Regression Equation
10

0
0 2 4 6 8
Exercise 12-15
X Y
56 45
48 38.5
42 34.5
58 46.1
40 33.3
39 32.1
50 40.4
a) Find the line of best fit

Scatter plot

Y
50
45
40
35 y = 0.7339x + 3.6467
30 R² = 0.9982
25
Y
20
15
10
5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Estimation Equation

∑ −(∑ )(∑ )
b= 2
∑ −(∑ )²

b= 7 13094.7 −(333)( 269.9


7 16189 - (333)²
b=0.7339

∑ ∑
= −

= 269.9-(-0-7339)47.5714
7

a=3.6467
PRONOSTIQUE X PARA Y : 56,58,54
X Y
56 44.71
58 46.17
54 40.33
Exercise 12-16

Years
Rate of
Employee of Y2 xy
efficiency
service

Jones 1 6 X3 216 6
Orlando 20 5 X4 125 100
6 3 5 27 18
Irreland X
Smith 8 5 X6 125 40
Cord 2 2 X7 8 4
1 2 8 8 2
Haper X
López 15 4 X9 64 60
Sobecki 8 3 X10 27 24
11
X
1.- What is the dependent variable?
Dependent variable = efficiency rate

2.- Draw a scatter plot

Chart Title
7

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

3.- Based on the scatter diagram, is there any relationship between the years of service?
and the efficiency?
If there is a weak positive relationship

Chart title
8

2
y = 0.0765x + 3.1664
0 R² = 0.1247
0 5 10 15 20 25
4.- Determine the regression equation
y = a + bx
y= 0.0765x + 3.1664
R² = 0.1247
5.- determine the correlation

r = n∑ − (∑ )(∑ )
√[ ∑ 2− ∑ ][2 ∑ 2− (∑ )2

r= 0.3531
Height
del Launch no
X squared Y squared XY
opponent regressed (l)
(H)
5 9 25 81 45
5.5 6 30.25 36 33
6 3 36 9 18
6.5 0 42.25 0 0
5 7 25 49 35
∑=28 ∑=25 ∑=158.5 ∑=175 ∑=131

1. What is the dependent variable?


R = height of the competent (H)
2. Draw the scatter plot

10 y = 0.8265x

0
0 2 4 6 8

3. There seems to be some relationship between X and Y


R = weak negative relationship

4. determine the regression equation

y = 0.8265x
12-18. A study conducted by the Atlanta Department of Transportation,
Georgia, about the bus ticket prices regarding the number of
passengers produced the following results
Precio del boleto (centavos) 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Passengers per 100 miles 800 780 780 660 640 600 620 620

a) Graph these data


b) Develop the equation of
best estimate
describe this data

Passenger Price
N° ticket for 100 X squared Y squared xy
(cents) miles
1 25 800 625 640,000 20,000
2 30 780 900 608,400 23,400
3 35 780 1225 608,400 27,300
4 40 660 1600 435,600 26,400
5 45 640 2025 409,600 28,800
6 50 600 2500 360,000 30,000
7 55 620 3025 384,400 34,100
8 60 620 3600 384,400 37,200
S= 8 340 5500 15500 3,830,800 227,200

Regression equation
Y = a + bx -6.23809524

S −( S )( )
B=
S ² −( S )²

Correlation equation

S ( S )(S )
R= -0.90808149
(S )(S ²)]
Scatter plot

ticket price x
passengers per 100 miles and
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Exercise 12-19

William C Andrews organizational behavior consultant of victory


motorcycles has designed a test to show the supervisors of the
company the dangers of over-monitoring its workers. A line worker
The assembly team is responsible for a series of complicated tasks. During the
worker performance an inspector constantly interrupts him to help him with
finish the tasks. The worker receives a test after finishing his work.
psychological test designed to measure the worker's hostility towards authority.
eight different workers were assigned tasks and then they were interrupted to
give them useful instructions a new variable of times line x. their grades in
the hostility test is given in line y.

X1 Y2 Xy3 X24 Σx2=2100


5 58 290 25 Σx=120
10 41 410 100 N=8
10 45 450 100 Ʃy2
15 27 405 225 Ʃ=8884
15 26 390 225 Σy=258
20 12 240 400 X=15
20 16 320 400 Y=28.5
25 3 75 625 A=70.5
B=-2.8

a) Graph data
b) develop an equation that best describes the relationship between the number of
interruptions and the grading of the test

nxy=3420

nx2=1800

bx=42

a = y - bx

a=28.5- (-42)=70.5

b=Σxy−nxy
Σx² - nx²

b=2580−3420
2100−1800

b=-2.8

c) forecast expected rating if the worker is interrupted 18 times

y=a+b(x)

y=70.5+(-2.8)(18)=20.1

Standard error of estimation

Σy² - aΣy - bΣxy


E=√
n-2

8884−16074−(−7224)
E=√
8−2

2.38
Exercise 12-20
Level of Degree of
X2 Y2 XY
noise anxiety
4 39 16 1521 156
3 38 9 1444 114
1 16 1 256 16
2 18 4 324 36
6 41 36 1681 246
7 45 49 2025 315
2 25 4 625 50
3 38 9 1444 114
∑=28 260 128 9320

a) Graph these data

Degree of anxiety
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

b) Develop an estimation equation that describes the data

b= ∑ − (∑ )(∑ ) =∑ − ∑
∑ 2− (∑ )2

1047 − (28) (260)


b= a= 260 - 4.528
8 128 −(28)2 10 10
b=4.56 a=13.4

Y = 13.4 + 4.56x

c) Predict the level of anxiety we could obtain when the noise level is 5
R= 13.4+4.56(5)=24.4
Exercise 12-21
A management company is administering a test to its salespeople in training.
to sell before going to work. The management of the company is
interested in determining the relationship between test scores and the
sales achieved by those sellers at the end of a year of work. They
they collected the following data from 10 sales agents who have been in
the field a year.

Number of Number of units


Calif. From the test (7) x2
sellers sold (5)
1 2.6 95 6.7
2 3.7 140 13-69
3 2.4 85 5.76
4 4.5 180 20.25
5 2.6 100 6.76
6 5 195 25
7 2.8 115 7.84
8 3 136 9
9 4 175 16
10 3.4 150 11.56
total 34 1371 108.87
a) Find the least squares regression line that could be used
predict the windows based on the test scores
training.
b) How much does the expected number of units sold increase by
each increase of 1 point in a test score?
c) Use the least squares regression line to predict the number

a) regression line

Title of the graph


1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

correlation
= −
[n( x²)-( x)²][[n( y²)-( y)²] Reference error!
12-22 The city council of Bowie, Maryland, has gathered
data on the number of minor traffic accidents and the number of articles
youth soccer that takes place in the city on the weekend.
S
X (football matches) 20 30 10 12 15 25 34 146
y (minor accidents) 6 9 4 5 7 8 9 48

a) graph these data


b) Develop the estimation equation that best describes these data.
c) Forecast the number of minor traffic accidents that will occur on a weekend
week during which 33 soccer matches will take place in Bowie.
d) Calculate the standard error of the estimate.

Data graph
12

10

6
y = 0.3101x
R² = 0.5391
4

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Estimation equation:
y = a + b1*x1 + b2*x2
y=0.3101x
R2= 0.5391
12-23 In economics, the demand function for a product at
sales are estimated using a regression of the quantity sold
(Q) about the price (P). The company Bamsy is trying to

P 20 17.5 16 14 12.05 10 8 6.5


Q 125 156 183 190 212 238 250 276

a) graph this data


b) calculate the least squares regression line
c) draw the fitted regression line on your graph from section

Title of the chart


350

300

250

200

150 y = 35.971x
R² = 0.7822
100

50

0
0 2 4 6 8 10

Equation of
estimation:
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2
Exercise 12-24

spent (thousands of d
percentage of pollutants
8.4 35.9
10.2 31.8
16.5 24.7
21.7 25.2
9.4 36.8
8.3 35.8
11.5 33.4
18.4 25.4
16.7 31.4
19.3 27.4
28.4 15.8
4.7 31.5
12.3 28.9

The dependent variables are X = Causes in this case Money spent (thousands of dollars).
The independent variables are Y = Effect in this case Percentage of contaminants.

Scatter diagram

40

35 y = -0.7821x + 40.717
R² = 0.773
30

25
Series1
20
Linear
15
(Series1)
10

0
0 10 20 30

A) Determine the equation. y = a + bx


− ( )( )
= 2− 2
y = -0.7821x + 40.717 Result obtained: Regression equation.
R² = 0.773

B) Forecasting the percentage of pollutants eliminated if $20,000 is spent on measures


∆= (∑yz/n )(∑z²/2)

∆= (12.6/28) (9/2)
∆= (0.45) (4.5)
∆= 2.025 = 0.02%

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