Name: _________________

AP Statistics Handout: Lesson 4.1

Topics: sample vs. population, biased sampling, simple random samples (SRS)

Lesson 4.1 Guided Notes

Sample vs. Population
1) In your own words, define the following terms: population,
Population census, and sample.

Sample

Graphic from the National Center for Education Statistics

Biased Sampling

SW Tennessee Community College: The homepage of their website

boasts: “Our overall graduation placement rate is 98.5%...”1 This
means that 98.5% of graduates find jobs after leaving college.

2) Identify the sample they used to find that 98.5% number. Do you
believe that this sample is representative of the population of all
students who attended the school? Why or why not?
At SW Tennessee Community College:

only 27%
of incoming students transfer or
3) The 98.5% statistic is probably misleading. Why? graduate within 8 years of entering.
Among full-time, first-time degree or certificate-seeking
students who entered in 2010/2011, Source: IPEDS (2020)

Bias: a study flaw that leads to _______________________ and/or inaccurate estimates.

Undercoverage: When part of the population has a __________________ of being included in a sample.
• Leads to bias.
• Example: excluding the students who didn’t graduate.

1
Accessed 6/9/2020

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

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Rogers State University (Oklahoma): In a recent report,2 the

University found that about 75% of graduates were pursuing another
degree or had found full-time employment by their final semester.
The same report shows that the response rate to the University’s
questions/surveys was only 20%.

Nonresponse: When individuals chosen for a sample don’t respond.

- Leads to bias if these individuals ___________ from respondents. Rogers State University

4) How could bias in the sampling method have affected the graduate study/employment rate estimate
from Rogers State University?
When writing about sampling bias…
1. Identify the population and the sample
2. Explain how the sampled individuals might
__________________ the general population
3. Explain how this leads to an
_________________________________.

Types of Sampling Bias Important: These categories of bias

can overlap. On an FRQ, if you’re
• Undercoverage bias unsure, don’t try to use one of these
vocab terms. Instead, just describe the
• Nonresponse bias bias, how it arises, and whether it leads
to an under or overestimate.
• Voluntary response bias: Occurs when a sample is composed
of _______________, who may differ from individuals who don’t choose to volunteer.
Ex: You want to study heart rate during exercise. You recruit volunteers to run a mile and then
measure their pulse. The few insane people in our society who actually like to run are the ones
who volunteer, so they’re healthier on average than the population → bias

• Question wording bias: When survey questions are confusing or leading.

Ex: “Which show do you prefer: Diners, Drive-In, and Dives, hosted by the incredibly talented,
funny, and interminable mayor of Flavortown / chef Guy Fieri or Iron Chef hosted by the boring
Alton Brown?

• Self-reported response bias: When individuals inaccurately report their own traits.
Ex: I report being able to bench-press 350 lbs.

2
Employment and Continuing Education for Graduating Students 2017-2019 AY 3-Year Aggregation (downloaded 6/9/2020 from
[Link]

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

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Simple Random Samples (SRS)

In order to avoid bias, you must _____________ sample.

Simple Random Sample (SRS): a sampling method in which every possible group of individuals in the
population has an __________________ of being selected.

Example: COVID-19 and Sampling

When COVID-19 spread to NYC, the city only provided tests to people
who showed symptoms. Some infected people don’t show symptoms.
So, the sampling method led to an underestimate of the number of
people infected. Instead, they could have randomly sampled the NYC
population, tested those who were sampled, and gotten an unbiased
estimate of the number of people infected.

5) Describe how you would implement a simple random sample (SRS) of 1,000 NYC residents to test for
COVID.

When describing how to perform an SRS:

1. Assign each individual in the population a
number 1 – N (population size).
2. Use a random number generator to obtain
n (sample size) numbers, skipping repeats.
3. Sample the individuals whose numbers
were generated

Lesson 4.1 Discussion

Discussion Question: During World War II, a statistician by the name of Abraham Wald was asked to
help the British air force decide where to put extra armor on their planes. They gave him charts of the
bullet holes in planes that were wounded in fighting but made it back safely to England. An example is
shown below, with each dot representing places hit by bullets.

Using the chart, on what part of a new plane would you

recommend they put extra armor? Choose from the
options below and give a statistical reason for your choice.
Options: A) Nose B) Wings C) Body D) Engine E) Tail

Image courtesy of Professor Joseph Blitzstein (i.e. the best stats prof in the country).
See his “Harvard Thinks Big” talk on this problem: [Link]

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

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Lesson 4.1 Practice

1) Identify the population and the sample in each study.

a) A teacher posts a poll to a website that only the students in his class have access to. Twenty
students respond to the poll.

b) In the produce section of a grocery store there are 18 bags of red grapes. A shopper selects 1
grape from three of the bags to taste test.

2) A teacher posts a poll to his class website. He asks, “Would you prefer to have the quiz on Friday or
Monday?” Out of his 32 students, 8 responded to the poll. 62.5% of the respondents indicated they
would prefer to have the quiz on Friday. How could bias have impacted the estimate of 62.5%?

3) A vegetable gardener is trying to determine the average number of pea pods produced by all 24 of
their pea pod plants. The plants are growing all around the perimeter of a rectangular garden. The
gardener selects 5 plants along one side of the garden, counts the number of pea pods on each plant,
and found the mean of these values.

a) How could sampling bias have impacted the sample mean number of pea pods from the 5 plants
chosen?

b) Describe how the gardener could select a simple random sample of 5 plants.

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

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4) Suppose we want to estimate the proportion of cars in a parking lot that have a manual transmission
rather than an automatic transmission. If the lot has 80 cars, describe how you would implement a
simple random sample of 18 cars.

Questions 5-9: Select the type of sampling bias present in each scenario from the list below. Justify your
choice.
A) Undercoverage Bias D) Question Wording Bias
B) Nonresponse Bias E) Self-Reported Response Bias
C) Voluntary Response Bias

5) A teacher is curious about her students’ opinion on a recent project they completed. During class, she
asks for volunteers to join a focus group to share feedback after class. The teacher uses this feedback to
infer how all her students feel about the project.

6) A local fire department wants to survey the residents of the town they serve about whether taxes
should be raised to pay for a new fire truck. The question they posed reads, “As it stands, if a fire breaks
out in your home, we may not be able to reach you in time to save your home. A new fire truck would
give us a much better chance. Are you in favor of a new truck for the fire department?”

7) The principal is looking to get a representative sample of all students at the high school to gauge their
opinion on a new mascot. She takes a simple random sample of students sitting in the cafeteria at lunch.
Note: At this school, seniors are allowed to leave campus at lunch.

8) A middle school is considering a “no-homework” policy, but first administrators want to know if
students are spending an exorbitant amount of time on homework each night. A random sample of
middle school students is asked how much time they spend on homework each night on average.

9) The owner of a coffee shop is hoping to survey the employees on their opinions of the coffee made at
the shop. A simple random sample of 10 employees is selected, and an anonymous survey is emailed to
each of them. The owner receives 4 responses.

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

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Further Practice

Teachers: We recommend providing additional practice exercises from your AP Stats textbook or from
prior AP Stats exams. The following textbook sections and AP exam questions are aligned to the content
covered in this lesson.

• The Practice of Statistics (AP Edition), 4th-6th editions: section 4.1

• Stats: Modeling the World (AP Edition), 4th/5th editions: ch 11, 3rd edition: ch 12
• Statistics: Learning from Data (AP Edition), 2nd edition: section 1.3
• Advanced High School Statistics, sections 1.3-1.4
• AP Exam Free Response Questions (FRQs): 2014 Q4, 2013 Q2 (parts a & b)

Material adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])