Name: _________________

AP Statistics Handout: Lesson 5.3

Topics: conditional probability, independence, the multiplication rule, tree diagrams

Lesson 5.3 Guided Notes

Conditional Probability
Condition: a “____________” in a problem
• P(A|B) = Probability of A occurring given that B _____________________________

The OKCupid Dataset - [Link]

This dataset is composed of public online dating profiles from 2012 on OKCupid. We filtered for people
who identified as age 36, male, and heterosexual, living in the San Francisco area. After filtering, we
collected data for each profile that reported their height and yearly earnings.
We’ll categorize the 192 men in the OKCupid dataset using the following convention:

Earns less than median ($) Earns more than median ($)
Socially de-valued
Shorter than median Short Low-Earner Short High-Earner Socially valued
Taller than median Tall Low-Earner Tall High-Earner

Estimated 2012 median yearly earnings for individual men in San Francisco county: $59,397. Male median height (U.S.): 69.2 in. (5’9”). 1. Earnings
median is an upper-bound estimate based on median earnings for workers in San Francisco county per the 2012 American Community Survey
([Link]). 2. Height median is from the CDC: National Health Statistics Reports, “Mean Body Weight, Height, Waist Circumference, and Body
Mass Index Among Adults: United States, 1999–2000 Through 2015–2016.” Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2018.

In the OkCupid data, we find 21 short low-earners, 22 tall low-earners, 48 short high-earners, and 101
tall high-earners. Let: T = event of selecting a tall man, H = event of selecting a high-income earner.

T H
1. P(T) =

22 101 48
2. P(T|H) =

21

Conditional Probability Formula: Conditional Probability Intuition:

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
• “Given” means ____________ by the given
P(A|B) = 𝑃(𝐵)

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 2

Conditional Probability in Two-Way Tables

1. P(T) =
low-earner high-earner total
short 21 48 69
tall 22 101 123 2. P(T|HC) =

total 43 149 192

Independence

Independence: Two events (A & B) are independent if knowing the outcome of one event __________
_______ affect the probability that the other event will occur.
• P(A|B) = _______

Example: Are the events “selecting a tall man” and “selecting a man who is a low-earner” independent?
Use the two probabilities you calculated for the two-way table above to support your answer.

Independent vs. Mutually Exclusive

Mutually exclusive: when events that have no intersection
(i.e. they cannot both occur)
A B
P(A) =
0.80 0.20
P(A|B) =

Mutually exclusive events are _____________________________. Knowing that one event occurs
greatly affects the probability of the other event (_____________________________).

Multiplication Rule

Formal Multiplication Rule: Intuitive Multiplication Rule:

For all events: P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B|A) • “And” means _______________
• Account for _________________ events
For independent events: P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B)

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 3

Tree Diagrams

Dream School Example:

1. You have a 0.65 probability of getting higher than average GPA and ACT scores.
2. If you have a higher than average GPA/ACT, you have a 0.83 chance of being admitted.
3. If you have a below average GPA/ACT score, you have a 0.39 chance of being admitted.

Draw the tree diagram here:

Let:
H = Event of getting higher than average ACT/GPA , A = Event of being admitted to your dream school

1. P(H∩A) = 2. P(A) = 3. P(H|A) =

5 Intuitive Probability Rules for a 5

1. Draw first (Venn, Table, Tree)
2. Complement rule: P(AC) = 1 – P(A)
3. “Or” means add, beware of double-counts
4. “Given” means divide by the given
5. “And” means multiply, adjust for dependence
If you depend on formulas

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 4

Lesson 5.3 Discussion

low-earner high-earner total low-earner high-earner total
short 21 48 69 short 48.8% 48 69
tall 22 101 123 tall 51.2% 101 123
total 43 149 192 total 100% 149 192

1. P(T) = 64.1% 2. P(T|HC) = 51.2%

If we find the conditional distribution (“given” low-earner), we’re close to the 50-50 split we’d expect
around the median height!

Discussion Question: Do you believe that filtering results for just the men who reported below-median
earnings would return more honest matches? Explain your reasoning.

Lesson 5.3 Practice

1) There are 50 seniors at a high school. You plan to randomly sample one
senior and ask them what courses they’re taking. Let C = event of selecting
a senior taking calculus, and H = event of selecting a senior taking physics.
The Venn Diagram describes all 50 students in the senior class.

a) Find 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐻)

b) Find 𝑃(𝐶)

c) Find 𝑃(𝐻|𝐶)

d) Find 𝑃(𝐶|𝐻)

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 5

2) English and Art electives for the 50 seniors are summarized in the two-way table below. Use the two-
way table to answer the following questions.

Art Electives
Digital Art Pottery Art History total
Film Studies 19 4 6 29
English
Electives European Lit 5 14 2 21
total 24 18 8 50

a) What is the probability that a randomly selected senior takes film studies?

b) Given that a randomly selected senior takes pottery, what is the probability that they take film
studies?

c) Are the events “takes film studies” and “takes pottery” independent? Use your two calculated
probabilities above to support your answer.

3) Suppose at a certain chilly location on Earth, the probability that it will snow on any given day is 60%.
Each day, there is a 20% chance that it will snow and that the snow will accumulate more than 3 inches.
On days that it snows, what is the probability that there will be more than 3 inches?

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 6

4) In a standard deck of 52 playing cards, there are 13 cards with hearts on them, 4 cards with the
picture of a king on them, and 1 card that has both a king and hearts on it. Suppose the deck of cards is
well shuffled, and one card is selected at random.

a) Are the events “selecting a card with hearts” and “selecting the card with a king” mutually
exclusive? Justify your answer.

b) Are the events “selecting a card with hearts” and “selecting the card with a king” independent?
Justify your answer.

5) The owners of a tattoo studio have been collecting data on people who come for a consultation to
explore how likely someone is to get a tattoo based on how they learned about the studio. Suppose 50%
of consultations were referred from a friend, 40% came from a social media ad, and 10% came from a
spontaneous walk-in. Among people who were referred by a friend, 80% end up getting a tattoo. For
people who came because of a social media ad, 65% get a tattoo. People who arrive due to a
spontaneous walk-in get a tattoo 20% of the time.

a) Create a tree diagram to represent this scenario.

b) What is the probability that a consultation comes from a friend referral and results in a tattoo?

c) What is the probability that a consultation results in the person getting a tattoo?

d) If a person gets a tattoo, what is the probability they came because of a friend referral?

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 7

6) You design an experiment to study how college students respond to a question about using AI to help
with homework depending on whether they are asked by another student or by a professor. Out of the
40 people surveyed for the experiment, 25 were surveyed by another student and the rest were
surveyed by a professor. 70% of those surveyed by another student said they always use AI to help with
their homework while 56% of those surveyed by a professor had the same response. If a student said
they always use AI to help with their homework, what is the probability that student was asked the
question by a professor?

7) An AP teacher gives each of her students a mini rubber duck (a “lucky duck”) before their exam. Lucky
ducks come in 5 colors, and students must pick their lucky duck blindly from a well-mixed bag of ducks.
Suppose the probability of selecting a blue duck is 15%, but Jenny is one student who is hoping to get
any color except blue. The teacher tells Jenny that if she picks a blue duck, she may place it back in the
bag, mix the ducks, and then pull again.

a) Create a tree diagram to represent the possible outcomes if Jenny can pick a duck at most twice.

b) Following the teacher’s rules, what is the probability that Jenny will pull two blue ducks in a
row?

c) What is the probability that Jenny will pull a blue duck and then a duck that is not blue?

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])

 8

8) Shane has a bag of dice with different colors and different numbers of sides. The two-way table below
summarizes the type of dice in the bag.
Color
Green Red total
Six 12 6 18
Number
of sides Twelve 6 6 12
total 18 12 30

a) Are the number of sides independent of color for the dice in the bag? Justify your answer.

b) Shane is going to create a bag of dice where color and number of sides are independent. Using
the totals in the table below, determine how many of each type of die Shane should include.
Color
Green Red total
Six 18
Number
of sides
Twelve 12

total 10 20 30

Further Practice
Teachers: We recommend providing additional practice exercises from your AP Stats textbook or from
prior AP Stats exams. The following textbook sections and AP exam questions are aligned to this lesson.

• The Practice of Statistics (AP Edition), 4th-6th editions: section 5.3

• Stats: Modeling the World (AP Edition), 4th/5th editions: ch 14, 3rd edition: ch 15
• Statistics: Learning from Data (AP Edition), 2nd edition: section 5.4
• Advanced High School Statistics, section 3.2
• AP Exam Free Response Questions (FRQs): 2019 Q3 (parts a&b), 2018 Q3 (parts a&b), 2017 Q3
(parts b&c), 2011 Q2

Lesson adapted from Skew The Script ([Link])