Financial Model
Mark Loughridge
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Finance and Enterprise Transformation
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2015 Roadmap
Base revenue growth ~2% excluding divestitures Shift to faster growing business mix provides ~1% revenue growth ~$20B of acquisition spend provides ~2% revenue growth Enterprise Productivity yields margin expansion Shift to a higher value portfolio continues to provide leverage ~$50B returned through share repurchase
Shares Enterprise Productivity Acquisitions Base Revenue Growth $11.67 Revenue Mix Margin Mix
11% CAGR At Least $20
~$2.80
Operating Leverage
~$2.50
Revenue Growth
~$3.05
2010 Operating EPS*
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense Assumes current tax policy and Non-GAAP tax rate of 25%
2015 Operating EPS*
2015 Roadmap Progress
Operating EPS*
Revenue
2011 Results
Double-digit performance across growth initiatives Growth Markets +11% Yr/Yr @CC Smarter Planet nearly 50% Yr/Yr Business Analytics +16% Yr/Yr Cloud 2.8x growth in 2011 Strong performance of 22 acquisitions closed through 2011
At Least
$20
2010-15 11% CAGR
15% Yr/Yr
$13.44
$11.67
Operating Leverage
Margin performance in line with model Delivered $1.9 billion of Enterprise Productivity savings
Cash & Shareholder Return
Generated $16.6 billion in free cash flow Returned over 100% to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends
2010
2011
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense
2015
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Growth Initiatives
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Growth Initiatives Roadmap Objectives
Smarter Planet
Contributes ~$7B of growth over Roadmap
$0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
Growth Markets
Approaches 30% of IBMs geographic revenue by 2015
Business Analytics
Contributes ~$6B of growth over Roadmap
Cloud
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Contributes ~$7B of revenue, of which ~$3B is incremental growth
Growth Initiatives
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Growth Markets
Growth Initiatives Performance
2011 Revenue Growth
Nearly 40 growth market countries grew double digits at constant currency in 2011
2,400 Smarter Cities engagements Nearly 9,000 analytics consultants and 33 closed/announced acquisitions now make up IBMs Analytics business 4.5 million daily client transactions through IBM Public Cloud
16%
(11% @CC)
$0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
Smarter Planet
~50%
Business Analytics
16%
Cloud
2.8x
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Growth Initiatives
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Growth Markets
2011 Revenue Results
Growth Initiatives
Growth Markets
2011 Brand Mix
16%
(11% @CC)
$0.82
Revenue Growth
Hardware/ Financing 29%
~50%
Growth markets mixed to high value-add hardware content
Hardware driven by new customer content Plant the Flag
$11.67
Smarter Planet
Services 51%
Business Analytics
16%
Software 20%
Cloud
Over 1,200 new Power clients in 2011
2.8x
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Growth Initiatives
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Growth Markets
2011 Revenue Results
Growth Initiatives
Smarter Business Planet Analytics 2011 Brand Mix Cloud Smarter Business Planet Analytics Cloud Yr/Yr at actual rates
16%
(11% @CC)
$0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
Smarter Planet
~50%
Services ~40%
Major Markets
~25%
Business Analytics
Software ~55%
Growth Markets ~35%
16%
Hardware ~5%
Cloud
2.8x
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Growth Initiatives Growth Initiatives contributed ~$6 billion of growth in 2011
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
~$17B
~$7B
~$6B
~$3B
~$50B
~$2B
~$2B
~$0.2B
$0.82
Revenue Growth
~$3B
Double-digit yr/yr growth
i
2011 +$6B
$11.67
~$30B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2010 Revenue from Key Initiatives
Growth Markets
Smarter Planet
Business Analytics
Incremental Cloud
2015 Revenue from Key Initiatives
Acquisitions
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Spent $14B in R&D and closed/announced ~$11B for 30 acquisitions since 2010
Servers, Networking & Storage Optimization
Complements Organic Assets
IBM Hardware Portfolio
$0.82
Revenue Growth
IBM Hardware Portfolio
Cloud
GTS Service Delivery
$11.67
Smarter Planet
Smarter Commerce
Smarter Cities
Industry Solutions Frameworks
GBS Offerings
Business Intelligence & Data Analytics
Governance, Risk, Compliance & Security
GBS BAO Service Line 8 Analytics Solution Centers
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Acquisitions
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Acquisitions have contributed significantly to IBMs growth in key strategic areas Smarter Commerce Acquired Security Expert Integrated
$0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
Organic
GBS Offerings
Leadership in B2B integration, Commerce solutions, and Enterprise Marketing Mgmt Comprehensive portfolio across Buy, Market, Sell, and Service
GTS & GBS Services
Integration across a complete solutions framework Capabilities to secure people, data, applications and IT infrastructure Real-time analytics provide visibility into security threats Integrates and tunes hardware and software in ready-to-go workload optimized systems Captures and automates from infrastructure to the application Deploys and runs for rapid time-to-value
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Revenue Yr/Yr%
45%
Acquisitions Focus acquisition investments of ~$20B on key growth areas that leverage IBMs global reach and scale
Forward Looking Revenue Growth Estimates
30% 20%
15%
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
30%
$0.82
Revenue Growth
10%
10%
10%
Scalable intellectual property Key to solutions offerings
$11.67
0%
Yr1
Yr2
Yr3
Yr4
Yr5
Forward Looking PTI Margin Estimates
30% 20%
PTI Margin
23%
18% 11%
2% 2%
PTI Margin
27%
20%
Drive synergies through global distribution
10% 0% -10%
15% 10%
2011 Operating EPS
-20%
-20%
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3
Margin excl. amortization of intangibles and acquisition-related charges
Yr4 Yr5
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Acquisitions Closed acquisitions through 2011 position us on pace against the 2015 Roadmap objectives
Roadmap Model
Annual Revenue from Closed Acquisitions
Actual Projected
~$11B
~55% Future Acquisitions
~45% Closed Acquisitions
$0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Roadmap Model
Annual Operating EPS from Closed Acquisitions
Actual Projected
~$0.90
~25% Future Acquisitions ~75% Closed Acquisitions
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Growth Markets IBMs business mix continues to shift towards the Growth Markets
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
Revenue Growth @ CC
11% 11%
Growth Markets % of IBM Geographic Revenue*
2015 2011 2010 2009
Approaches
$0.82
10%
Revenue Growth
30%
22% 21%
19%
18%
17% 16% 11%
+8 pts
+10 pts
1%
+10 pts
$11.67
2%
1%
2%
+8 pts
-6% 2008 2009 Major Markets 2010 Growth Markets 2011
2008
2007 2006
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
* Revenue mix percentages exclude PCD and Printers divestitures
2000
Growth Markets We have accelerated investment in Growth Markets expansion
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase Operating Leverage
2011 Revenue Growth
Yr/Yr at constant currency
Branch Office Growth
Branch Office Acceleration Branch Office Plan
2015 Roadmap
~$17B
Revenue Growth from Growth Markets
Market Expansion
~2X
$0.82
Revenue Growth
Overall Growth Markets
11% 2%
Major Markets Growth Markets Market Expansion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$11.67
~40%
Branch offices grew about twice the growth rate of the overall Growth Markets in 2011
Market expansion enabled by globally integrated enterprise Investment focused on client-facing resources Back office delivered through global shared services model
Market expansion enables ~40% of Roadmap for Growth Markets
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Operating Leverage
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
Growth Markets delivered over 45% of IBMs Geographic Gross Profit growth in 2011
Geographic Gross Profit Bridge*
$2.2B $1.9B ~$47B
Growth Markets Major Markets
Revenue Growth
~$51B
Growth Markets
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
Revenue Growth
45%
55%
Major Markets
$11.67
Gross Profit Growth
Growth Markets
47%
53%
Major Markets
2010
Geographic Gross Profit
2011
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
* Sum of geographic gross profit not equal to IBM gross profit
Investing for Growth
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
6,180
We will continue to focus our investments on higher value businesses
2011 US Patents
4,894
$0.18 $0.82
Research & Development
2006 - 2010 2015 Roadmap
Operating Leverage
Revenue Growth
$30B
~$35B
$11.67
2,821 2,559 2,483 2,311 2,286 1,533 1,514 1,465 1,308
1,244
980
918
676 282 127
IB M
Samsung Cano n P anaso nicTo shiba M icro so ft
So ny
Seiko Ho n Hai Epso n
Hitachi
HP
Intel
Cisco
Oracle
A pple
EM C A ccenture
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Top 10
Source: IFI CLAIMS Patent Services
Other IT Companies
Operating Leverage
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
IBM expands margins in 2015 Roadmap through a continuation of our shift to higher value
% of Operating Segments Profit*
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
Revenue Growth
~50%
$11.67
40%
27% = $2.6B 38% 35%
44% = $10B
~36% 41% 16%
2011
Services
37% 23%
2006
Hardware/Financing
~13%
2015e
Software
2000**
2011 Operating EPS
* Sum of operating segment pre-tax income not equal to IBM operating pre-tax income ** Stock-based compensation expense was not recorded at the segment level and excludes Enterprise Investments
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Operating Leverage
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
In 2011 IBM delivered first installment against $8B 2015 objective
Enterprise Productivity Savings ($B)
1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
Continuous improvement leveraging analytics Locate work to where it best can be performed
Revenue Growth
$11.67
0.5
Focus integrated operations on high value advisory activities
2009 2010 2011
2006
2007
2008
Shared Services
End-to-End Process Transformation
Balance savings between reinvesting and driving margin performance
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Integrated Operations
Operating Leverage
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
Enterprise Productivity provides flexibility and leverage across the business model
Enterprise Productivity Savings ($B)
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
Revenue Growth
$8B
Integrated Operations
$8B
Software
$8B
Revenue Productivity
$11.67
End-to-End Process Transformation
Services
Cost & Expense Reduction
Shared Services
Hardware / Financing
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Revenue and Operating Leverage
Segment Revenue and Operating Pre-Tax Income
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
50%
IGF $2B
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
40%
Software $10B
Revenue Growth
PTI Margin
30%
$11.67
20%
2011 IBM Operating PTI % $13.44 2011 EPS GBS $3B STG $2B GTS $6B
10%
0% $0B $25B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$50B $75B Sum of Segment Revenue
$100B
$125B
2015 Operating EPS
Revenue and Operating Leverage
Segment Revenue and Operating Pre-Tax Income
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
50%
Remaining $35B of share repurchase delivers ~$2.05 EPS
IGF
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
40%
Software PTI Margin
Revenue Growth
30%
Share Repurchase ~$2.05 2011 IBM Operating PTI % $13.44 2011 EPS GBS GTS
$11.67
20%
10%
STG
0% $0B $25B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$50B $75B Sum of Segment Revenue
$100B
$125B
2015 Operating EPS
Revenue and Operating Leverage
Segment Revenue and Operating Pre-Tax Income
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
50%
Software profit at historical growth delivers ~$3.30 EPS
IGF Software Growth ~$3.30
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
40%
Software PTI Margin
Revenue Growth
30%
2015 IBM Operating PTI % 2011 IBM Operating PTI % Share Repurchase ~$2.05
$11.67
20%
+3pts
$13.44 2011 EPS GTS
GBS
10%
STG
0% $0B $25B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$50B $75B Sum of Segment Revenue
$100B
$125B
2015 Operating EPS
Revenue and Operating Leverage
Segment Revenue and Operating Pre-Tax Income
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
50%
~40% yield on Enterprise Productivity spending reduction delivers ~$1.20 EPS
IGF
Enterprise Prod ~$1.20 Software Growth ~$3.30
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
40%
Software PTI Margin
Revenue Growth
30%
2015 IBM Operating PTI % Share Repurchase ~$2.05
$11.67
20%
2011 IBM Operating PTI %
+4pts
$13.44 2011 EPS
GBS
GTS
10%
STG
0% $0B $25B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$50B $75B Sum of Segment Revenue
$100B
$125B
2015 Operating EPS
Revenue and Operating Leverage
Segment Revenue and Operating Pre-Tax Income
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
Software delivers profit growth from new markets
50%
IGF
At Least $20
Enterprise Prod ~$1.20 Software Growth ~$3.30
Services captures growth from key market transitions
40%
$0.18 $0.82
Operating Leverage
STG / IGF capitalize on technology leadership
Software
Revenue Growth
PTI Margin
30%
2015 IBM Operating PTI % 2011 IBM Operating PTI %
$11.67
Share Repurchase ~$2.05 $13.44 2011 EPS
20%
GBS
GTS
10%
STG
0% $0B $15B $30B $45B
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
$60B $75B $90B Sum of Segment Revenue
$105B
$120B
$135B
2015 Operating EPS
Cash Generation and Usage
Free Cash Flow* $B
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
About $150 billion of free cash flow generated over past fifteen years
$0.77 $0.18 $0.82
Fueled organic and acquisition investments Returned over 100% to shareholders
+$6.1B +$1.2B/Yr
16.3 16.6 15.1
Revenue Growth
+$3.7B +$740M/Yr +$0.5B +$100M/Yr
6.3 6.3 6.7 5.8 5.9 6.8 5.9 10.5 8.7 9.1 9.6
14.3 12.4
~$10B
$11.67
2011 Operating EPS
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* Excluding GF Receivables
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Cash Generation and Usage
Free Cash Flow* $B
$13.44
15% Yr/Yr
Share Repurchase
Operating Leverage
Approaches $100B $69B
$B $25
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e
$0.77 $0.18 $0.82
Revenue Growth
$11.67
2006 - 2010
$B
Primary Uses of Cash
2011- 2015
$B
Share Repurchase
Share Repurchase
$60
Capital
~$50
Capital Dividends
2011 Operating EPS
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Dividends $12 Acquisitions
$22
~$25
Acquisitions
~$40B Cash & Balance Sheet Flexibility in 2015
~$20
* Excluding GF Receivables
$18
~$20
2015 Roadmap
Base revenue growth ~2% excluding divestitures Shift to faster growing business mix provides ~1% revenue growth ~$20B of acquisition spend provides ~2% revenue growth Enterprise Productivity yields margin expansion Shift to a higher value portfolio continues to provide leverage ~$50B returned through share repurchase
At Least $20
Shares Enterprise Productivity
$0.77
Margin Mix
+10% CAGR to go 15% Yr/Yr
Base Revenue Growth
Revenue Mix
Acquisitions
$13.44
$0.18
~$2.80
$11.67
2011 Performance: $0.82 Operating Leverage Revenue Growth
~$2.50
~$3.05
2010 Operating EPS*
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2015 Operating EPS*
* Non-GAAP: Excludes acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense Assumes current tax policy and Non-GAAP tax rate of 25%
2015 Roadmap
Operating PTI / EPS *
Segment Operating PTI$ Operating EPS
At Least $20
2015 Objectives
Software contributes about half of our segment profit
At Least $15 $13.44
Growth initiatives deliver $20B in revenue growth
Growth markets revenue approaches 30% of IBMs total Enterprise productivity delivers $8B in gross savings
$3.32
$1.81
IBM returns $70B to shareholders over the roadmap
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12e '13e '14e '15e
'00
'01
'02
Hardware / Financing
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Services
Software
Sum of external segment pre-tax income not equal to IBM pre-tax income 2000 & 2001 segments not restated for stock based compensation
* Non-GAAP: Excludes Acquisition-related charges and non-operating retirement-related expense
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
Certain comments made in the presentation may be characterized as forward looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the Company's filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM web site, or from IBM Investor Relations. Any forward-looking statement made during this event or in these presentation materials speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The Company assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. These charts and the associated remarks and comments are integrally related, and they are intended to be presented and understood together. In an effort to provide additional and useful information regarding the Companys financial results and other financial information as determined by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), certain materials presented during this event include non-GAAP information. The rationale for managements use of this non-GAAP information, the reconciliation of that information to GAAP, and other related information is included in supplemental materials entitled Non-GAAP Supplemental Materials that are posted on the Companys investor relations web site at [Link] The NonGAAP Supplemental Materials are also included as Attachment II to the Companys Form 8-K dated May 9, 2012.
2012 International Business Machines Corporation
2012 International Business Machines Corporation