U.S.-China Relations and Global Dynamics
U.S.-China Relations and Global Dynamics
∙ “Global order remains under perpetual threat, and wars among states are inevitable. The
pursuit of hegemony serves as the ultimate security guarantee. In an anarchic system,
power competition is relentless — states balance against capabilities, not intentions —
driven by fear of shifting power, miscalculation, nationalism, and domestic pressures.”
— John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
∙ “If the United States loses global respect, it will learn the same lesson every declining
empire eventually learns — the world stops for no one and always moves ahead. A
century ago, the British Empire held 20% of global wealth and seemed eternal. Two
centuries ago, France ruled Europe, feared for its army and admired for its culture.”
— Xi Jinping
∙ “No Cold War mentality.”
— Tianjin SCO Summit, 2025
Trade War
∙ “The Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths.”
— Deng Xiaoping (1992)
∙ “China has had the monopoly in this market for a really long time, and that monopoly has
only increased.”
— Neha Mukherjee, Rare Earths Research Manager at Benchmark Mineral
Intelligence (CNBC)
∙ “The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains … China’s dominant
position in the world market now in [rare earths] means that it is able to turn on the faucet
and turn off the faucet.”
— Katherine Tai, United States Trade Representative (CNBC)
∙ “The U.S. needs access to rare earths, and it is willing to negotiate for it. China sees it as a
powerful bargaining tool.”
— Foreign Policy, quoting experts
U.S. vs. China — Chip War, Trade War, and the Taiwan Issue
∙ “Taiwan will continue to ensure peace through strength and boost security through
cooperation, and will work together with friends and allies to advance democracy, peace,
and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.”
— President Lai Ching-te (Office of the President, Taiwan)
∙ “If the U.S. has other agenda in mind and if war is what the U.S. wants — be it a tariff
war, a trade war, or any other type of war — we’re ready to fight till the end.” — Lin
Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson (Asia Times)
∙ “The U.S., not anyone else, is responsible for the fentanyl crisis inside the U.S. …
Instead of recognizing our efforts, the U.S. has sought to vilify and shift the blame to
China. … If the U.S. wishes to blackmail China with tariff hikes … they’ve been
punishing us for helping them.”
— Lin Jian (Asia Times)
U.S.–Pakistan Relations
2
∙ “The relationship is clientelistic — based on instrumental exchange rather than
ideological affinity.”
— Christophe Jaffrelot
∙ “India sometimes rejects positive-sum compromises out of principle, whereas Pakistan
often compromises — or appears to — to sustain ties with Washington.”
— Christopher Clary
∙ “U.S. policy has long rested on three assumptions: India’s rise as a major power is
inevitable; Pakistan will inevitably align with China; and Pakistan’s support for militancy
in Afghanistan renders it an unreliable long-term ally.”
— Moeed Yusuf, Foreign Affairs
∙ “This renaissance in bilateral ties holds long-term potential, though U.S. policies tend to
shift rapidly.”
— Michael Kugelman
∙ “It has been building via the military-to-military relationship on counterterrorism and
likely covert aid, as well as provision of access to U.S. aircraft and drones to monitor
activities in the region.”
— Shuja Nawaz
∙ “Islamabad’s successful attempts to get the attention of a relentlessly transactional
administration explain the continuity in ties.”
— Michael Kugelman
∙ “Pakistani leaders have to protect their national interests. We can’t make them behave the
way we want them to behave.”
— Ambassador David Hale
∙ “Many Pakistani officials are tilted towards the West, giving us leverage. But the
responsibility lies on both sides to make the relationship work.”
— Nadia Naviwala
∙ “We now view Pakistan through a China lens. Since ties with Beijing can’t be wished
away, the U.S. must rethink how to shape a productive relationship with Pakistan.” —
Tamanna Salikuddin
∙ “We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the
United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves.” — Donald
Trump, AP News
∙ “Maybe they’ll be selling oil to India someday!”
— Donald Trump, The Washington Post
∙ “We want the strongest relations with the U.S. as well. This is the policy of our
government under PM Shehbaz Sharif.”
— Ishaq Dar, The News International
∙ “Pakistan sought ‘expanded and stable’ bilateral relationship with Washington,
highlighting ‘strong convergences’ between the two sides on several issues.”
— Ishaq Dar, The Express Tribune
3
Pakistan in the Emerging World Order
∙ “The Sino-Pak relationship and the U.S.-India partnership form the dual axes central to
the contemporary global order.”
— Andrew Small, The China–Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics
∙ “In
a world defined by competition, the most connected states are the strongest.”
— Joseph Nye
— Ray Dalio
— Henry Kissinger
∙ “Ivisualize China as a potential partner in the construction of a world order. If that does
not succeed, we will be in a position of conflict.”
— Henry Kissinger
∙ “Any system of world order, to be sustainable, must be accepted as just — not only by
leaders, but also by citizens.”
— Henry Kissinger
∙ “We are in the foothills of a Cold War.”
— Henry Kissinger
— Paul Krugman
∙ “Does this mean that the U.S. is losing the race with China for global leadership? No, I
think that race is essentially over.”
— Paul Krugman
∙ “We may be entering into an all-out trade war with China, having destroyed the non-trade
advantages America used to have.”
— Paul Krugman
4
∙ “Tariffs
are not strategy — they are tantrums dressed up as policy.”
— Paul Krugman
∙ “Cooperation over fragmentation; ethics over expediency; and transparency over opacity
… Technology will not wait for us. But we can still choose what it serves.” — António
Guterres, Address to the UN General Assembly, 23 September 2025 (United Nations)
∙ “There are no guarantees for what’s ahead in 2025. But I pledge to stand with all those
who are working to forge a more peaceful, equal, stable and healthy future for all people.
Together, we can make 2025 a new beginning — not as a world divided, but as nations
united.”
— António Guterres, New Year’s Message 2025 (UN in DPRK)
∙ “Conflicts rain destruction. Funding for development is drying up. And the climate crisis
strikes blow after blow. And yet, even in this turbulent moment, we see signs of progress,
hope, and opportunity.”
— António Guterres, SDG Moment Event, 22 September 2025 (UN in DPRK) ∙ “Many
of our founders had seen first-hand the hell of the death camps and the terror of war. They
knew that true leadership meant creating a system to prevent a replay of those horrors.”
— António Guterres, UN General Assembly, 23 September 2025 (The United Nations in
Egypt)
5
Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)
∙ “We should clarify our common position of opposition to the plans of Israeli extremists
to annex the West Bank.”
— Ishaq Dar, Foreign Minister of Pakistan, OIC Meeting, New York, February 2025
(Dawn)
∙ “The Israeli regime’s siege of Gaza, the mass starvation, the blockade of aid delivery, and
the murder of civilians are systematic crimes.”
— Minister of Foreign Affairs of Malaysia, 51st Council of Foreign Ministers of the OIC,
Istanbul, June 2025 (Kuala Lumpur City Hall)
∙ “The OIC must act as a ‘voice of justice, of principle, and of truth.’”
— Ishaq Dar, urging OIC unity on Gaza, Kashmir and Islamophobia (Radio Pakistan)
∙ “Gaza is a ‘graveyard for innocent lives as well as for international law’ … The brazen
audacity of plans to extend Israel’s full military control over Gaza provides an insight into
Israel’s annexationist and rogue mindset.”
— Ishaq Dar, OIC–CFM Meeting, Jeddah, August 2025 (Pakistan Today)
∙ “The strong do what they have the power to do, and the weak accept what they have to
accept.”
— Thucydides
∙ “Israel’s actions in Palestine are much worse than apartheid in South Africa.”
— Noam Chomsky
∙ “The Muslims of India would not remain as mere spectators. They would help the Arabs
in Palestine by all possible means.”
— Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah
∙ “The world can move forward without the United States. Just as the British Empire once
ruled and faded, no power is permanent. The world stops for no one.”
— Xi Jinping, condemning U.S. unilateralism
Iran–Israel Conflict
∙ “Israel will not last long.”
— Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader
∙ “Israel must be wiped off the map.”
— Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Former Iranian President
6
∙ “Why would the so-called ‘Supreme Leader,’ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war-torn
country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the war with Israel, when he
knows his statement is a lie — it is not so.”
— Donald Trump, Former U.S. President
∙ “The war sends a message to the Arab and Islamic world, and the international community
as a whole — especially those seeking normalization with this enemy — that the
Palestinian cause is an everlasting one, alive until victory and liberation.” — Hassan
Nasrallah, Hezbollah Leader
Book references:
“Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to
develop and produce a nuclear bomb.”
∙ Benjamin Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism (1995)
“If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time — months, even
weeks.”
“In Target Tehran, Bob and Evyatar demonstrate that Israel’s covert campaign employs
sabotage, cyberwarfare, assassinations, intelligence theft, and psychological operations to
delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions rather than engage in open warfare.”
“The strategy outlined in Target Tehran is one of constant pressure — a ‘death by a thousand
cuts’ — directed not only at Iran’s physical infrastructure but also at its morale, logistics, and
regional credibility.”
7
∙ “We must pave the way for peace.”
— Emmanuel Macron, French President
∙ “There is growing global consensus that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.”
— Cyril Ramaphosa, South African President
2025 Gaza Peace Summit — Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt (13 October 2025)
∙ “Today is one of the greatest days in contemporary history because peace has been
achieved after untiring efforts led by President Donald Trump, who is genuinely a man of
peace, who has relentlessly and untiringly worked throughout these months, day in and
day out, to make this world a place to live with peace and prosperity.”
— Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan
∙ “Pakistan had nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his outstanding
and extraordinary contributions to first stop the war between India and Pakistan and then
achieve a cease-fire, along with his very wonderful team. And today again, I would like
to nominate this great president for the Nobel Peace Prize because I genuinely feel that he
is the most genuine and most wonderful candidate for the peace prize — because he has
not only brought peace in South Asia, saved millions of people, their lives, and today,
here in Sharm el-Sheikh, achieved peace in Gaza and saved millions of lives in the
Middle East.”
— Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan
∙ “We stopped a nuclear conflict. I think it could have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of
people could have been killed.” — Dawn
∙ “If you are going to go fighting each other, then we are not going to do trade deals.” —
Pakistan Today
∙ “Terror and talk cannot take place together; terror and trade cannot go together; and water
and blood also cannot flow together.” — NDTV
∙ “We have delivered the promise we made to our people.” — (After operations against
terror targets) — Al Jazeera
∙ “No country in the world stopped us from taking action against Pakistan. We acted on our
own terms.” — India TV News
8
Shehbaz Sharif (Prime Minister of Pakistan)
∙ “We are ready for war and peace. Choice is yours.” — Dawn
∙ “Ifyou stop our water, then it is the red line. Water is our right. The brave, valiant forces
will fight for our right.” — Dawn
∙ “Pakistan has settled score with India … and is prepared for peace as well as war.” —
The News International
Book reference: The War That Changed Everything: Pakistan–India Conflict 2025 and the
Quest for Peace (Murtaza Solangi)
∙ “The Pahalgam massacre of April 22, 2025, was exploited to frame Pakistan as the
aggressor, demonize Kashmiri dissent, and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.” ∙ “The
conflict unexpectedly reunited Pakistan — described as a blessing in disguise.” ∙ “The war
has forced all relevant powers — the United States, China, Pakistan, and India — to
reconsider their strategic calculations.”
∙ “The United States played the mediator’s role, with President Trump offering to mediate
the Kashmir dispute.”
∙ “China’s diplomatic alignment and military cooperation with Pakistan was far stronger
than India had anticipated.”
Threats to Deterrence in South Asia
1. Narendra Modi (India) — “India won’t tolerate nuclear blackmail anymore, we won’t
fall for any blackmail.” — The Financial Express
2. Lt Gen (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (Pakistan) — “Pakistan’s strategic deterrence
remained unshaken and fully effective during the May 2025 standoff… our nuclear
weapons will continue to define the limits of India’s kinetic freedom of action.” —
Associated Press of Pakistan (APP)
3. Foreign Office Spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan (Pakistan) — “Pakistan’s
conventional capabilities are sufficient to deter India, without resorting to … nuclear
blackmail …” — Pakistan Today
4. General Anil Chauhan (India’s Chief of Defence Staff) — “Pakistan thought it could
do anything … warns against nuclear attack threats. India cannot tolerate even the threat
of a nuclear attack.” — Times of India
Kashmir Dispute
Historical & Contemporary Views
9
∙ Shashi Tharoor: “Once known for its extraordinary beauty, the valley of Kashmir today
hosts one of the biggest, bloodiest, and most brutal military occupations in the world.” ∙
Alastair Lamb, Kashmir: A Disputed Legacy — “If in fact [the Instrument of Accession]
took place after the Indian intervention, then it could well be argued that it was either done
under Indian duress or to regularise an Indian fait accompli.” ∙ Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif (UNGA Address, September 2025): “One day soon, Inshallah, India’s tyranny in
Kashmir will come to a grinding halt. The Kashmiri people will gain their fundamental right
to self-determination through an impartial plebiscite under the auspices of the United
Nations.”
∙ Dwight D. Eisenhower (Former U.S. President): “The Indus Waters Treaty is one
bright spot in a very depressing world picture that we see so often.”
∙ John Briscoe (Former Senior Water Advisor, World Bank): “The Indus Waters
Treaty is one of the few international agreements that has stood the test of time, despite
the hostile political environment between the signatories.”
∙ Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (UNGA, 2025): “Any violation of the Indus Waters
Treaty is an act of war.”
∙ Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari: “Either water will flow in this Indus, or their blood will.”
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Crisis
Indian Position
1. Narendra Modi: “Water and blood cannot flow together.” — India Today 2. Amit
Shah (Home Minister): “India will never restore the Indus Water Treaty with
neighbouring Pakistan … We will take water that was flowing to Pakistan to Rajasthan …
Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably.” — Al Jazeera
Pakistani Position
3. Syed Shibli Faraz (Senate Opposition Leader): “The Indus Waters Treaty is a settled
matter. Pakistan has never sought its amendment, and we will not allow any unilateral alteration
to its terms.” — Pakistan Today
4. Ishaq Dar (Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister): “The treaty is critical to regional
stability and its sanctity must be preserved.” — Dawn
10
∙ Aaron Wolf (Professor of Water Diplomacy, Oregon State University): “Legal
ambiguity and delays in arbitration risk making the treaty less effective over time.”
∙ Between 2016 and 2022, World Bank arbitration over Kishanganga and Ratle
hydropower projects was delayed due to procedural disagreements:
o Pakistan demanded a Court of Arbitration.
o India insisted on a Neutral Expert process.
∙ Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif: “This agreement reflects the shared commitment of
both nations to enhance their security and to achieving security and peace in the region
and the world.”
∙ Defence Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif: “What we have, and the capabilities we
possess, will be made available according to this agreement.”
∙ Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar: “If more nations join the Saudi–Pakistan defence
pact, it will become a NATO-like alliance.”
∙ Dr. Jamal Al Harbi (Saudi Media Attaché in Islamabad): “The recent defense pact
includes defense industry collaboration, with potential for technology transfer, co
production of military equipment, and capacity building—building on the longstanding
tradition of Pakistani military personnel working alongside Saudi forces.”
∙ Saudi Official (Unnamed): “This is not a response to specific countries or specific events
but an institutionalisation of long-standing and deep cooperation between our two
countries.”
3. Geopolitical Context
∙ Bob Woodward, War (Simon & Schuster, 2024): In a passage describing discussions in
the Oval Office, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is quoted as saying: “I
don’t need uranium to make a bomb. I’ll just buy one from Pakistan.”
∙ António Guterres (UN Secretary-General): “We have to control the damage that we
have done to nature. The next 10 years is our last chance to contain the catastrophe.”
∙ Muhammad Ali Jinnah: “We must work our destiny in our own way and present to the
world an economic system based on true Islamic concept of equality of manhood and
social justice.”
∙ Imran Khan: “The country would not be able to rebuild its economy without peace and
stability.”
∙ Husain Haqqani: “Pakistan views itself as a strategically located country needed by the
world’s major powers and as home to descendants of mighty Muslim warriors. This view
of the self, coupled with the dominance of a narrow elite, accounts for Pakistan’s inability
to address its periodic economic crises.”
∙ John Williamson (World Bank Chief Economist): “The country clearly faces a difficult
challenge in reviving its economy and in achieving a level of social standards in which
it can begin to take pride.”
12
∙ Fee: 7500
∙ Duration: 4 weeks
Course details:
Water politics
Indus Water Treaty in limbo
∙ The hisoty of IWT
∙ The implications
∙ Challenges to ceasefire
An inevitable reality
Multipolar World
∙ Great power competition
Challenges ahead
Climate Change and The Troubled Energy Transition
∙ How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward
∙ How to counter it
∙ IWT
Balochistan Insurgency
Economy of Pakistan
∙ Inflation, growth, & debt
∙ 26th
___________________________________________________________
∙ Fee: 7500
∙ Note: Reserve days for rescheduled classes if required by urgency (Thursday @7pm to
8.30pm)
Responses of our April 2025 batch sessions
Responses of our April 2025 batch sessions
Current Affairs reviews:
Responses of our September 2024 batch sessions
Responses from December 2024 Bacth