4/5/2021

Reliability Theory

Kazi Wahadul Hasan

Lecturer, IPE

The Definition of Reliability

A fundamental problem in estimating reliability is whether
a system will function in a prescribed manner in a given
environment for a given period of time. This depends on a
number of factors:
• Design of the system
• The parts and components used
• The environment
Reliability is the probability that the given system will
perform its required function under specified
conditions for a specified period of time.

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Importance of Reliability
♯ Reputation
♯ Customer Satisfaction
♯ Warranty Costs
♯ Repeat Business
♯ Cost Analysis
♯ Customer Requirements
♯ Competitive Advantage

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Improving Reliability
• Employing the method of systems design
engineering, reliability engineering,
knowledge of SQC, using high-quality
components and imposing strict quality
control procedures during the assembly
phase
• An alternative approach to reliable system
design is to incorporate “redundancy” (i.e.
additional resources) into a system with the
aim of masking the effects of faults

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Reliability of a System

Three types of a system:

1. Series system-assembled in series
2. Parallel system-assembled in parallel
3. Combination system- a combination of series
and parallel components

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Case 1: Components in Series

 If a system consisting of n components in series, each
having a reliability of 𝑅i,
Total system reliability will be:

𝑅𝑠 = 𝑅𝑖
𝑖=1

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Case 1: Components in Parallel

 If a system consisting of n components in parallel, each
having a reliability of 𝑅i, and the probability of failure 𝐹 i,
The failure probability of the parallel system Fp will be:
𝑁

𝐹𝑝 = 𝐹𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑅𝑝 = 1 − 𝐹𝑝
𝑁

𝑅𝑝 = 1 − 𝐹𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑁

𝑅𝑝 = 1 − (1 − 𝑅𝑖 )
𝑖=1
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Example: Combination System

A subassembly in a computer system consists of three

components in parallel (with equal reliability = 0.75) and
one in series with a reliability of 0.97. What will be the
overall system reliability?
A1

A2 B4

A3

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Reliability as a function of Time

• Let N = identical componentsunder “stress conditions”
• Let S(t) be the number of surviving
components
• Let Q(t) be the number of components that have
failed
Then Reliability, 𝑅 𝑡 =

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Reliability as a function of Time

The probability of failure of the components, also known
as the unreliability F(t), is:
𝑄 𝑡
𝐹 𝑡 =
𝑁
Since S(t)+ Q(t) = N, we must have: (t)
𝑅 𝑡 +𝐹 𝑡 =1

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Failure Rate
• The failure rate, Z(t) is defined to be the number of
failures per unit time compared with the number of
surviving components:

𝑑𝑄 𝑡
𝑍(𝑡) = 1/𝑆(𝑡)∗ ( )
𝑑𝑡

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The bathtub curve

• Study of components show that under normal conditions
the failure rate varies as indicated in the figure below
(the bathtub curve):

Chance failure

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Failure rate (Cont.)

• In the “useful life” period the failure rate is constant,
and therefore:
𝑍 𝑡 =𝜆
𝑆 𝑡 𝑁−𝑄 𝑡 𝑄 𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = = =1−
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
𝑑𝑅 𝑡 1 𝑑𝑄 𝑡
=− ⋅
𝑑𝑡 𝑁 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑄 𝑡 𝑑𝑅 𝑡
= −𝑁
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡

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Failure rate (Cont.)

𝑑𝑄 𝑡
𝜆 = 1/𝑆(𝑡)∗ Basic equation of failure rate (Z)
𝑑𝑡
𝑁 𝑑𝑅 𝑡
𝜆=− ⋅
𝑆 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1 𝑑𝑅 𝑡
=− ⋅
𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑅 𝑡
𝜆 ⋅ 𝑑𝑡 = −
𝑅 𝑡
• The above expression may be integrated giving:

𝑑𝑅 𝑡
𝜆 𝑑𝑡 = −
𝑅 𝑡
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Reliability function
• Integrating, we get:

−𝜆𝑡 = ln 𝑅 𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = exp −𝜆𝑡

• The above relationship is generally known as the

exponential failure law.

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Relation between Reliability and

Mean-Time-Between-Failures
• Reliability R(t) gives different values for different
operating times.
• More useful to the user is the average time a system will
run between failures; which is termed as Mean-Time-
Between-Failures (MTBF).
• The MTBF of a system is the reciprocal of the failure
rate, and expressed in hours (time unit).
1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 =
𝜆

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Example
 A component has a failure rate of 0.07 per 1000 hours.
What will be the probability that it will survive at least
5000 hours?

𝑅 5 = exp −0.07 5 = 0.7046

Therefore, the probability of survival of the mentioned

component is 70.46%.

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Case 1: Components in Series

 If a system consisting of n components, each having
exponential failure-time distribution function in series,
with failure rate 𝜆1 , 𝜆2 , 𝜆3 … … … … , 𝜆n ,
Total system reliability will be:

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Example: MTBF of a Series System

 Four components have a failure rate of 0.061, 0.048,

0.053, 0.038 per 1000 hours individually and arranged
in series. What will be the MTBF for this system?
MTBF of a series system would be:
−1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = [𝜆1 +𝜆2 +𝜆3 … … + 𝜆n ]
Therefore, for this problem,
−1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = [0.061 + 0.048 +0.053 + 0.038 ]
= 5 hours
So, the MTBF of the series is = 5000 hours.

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Case 1: Components in Parallel

 A system is consisting of n components, each having
exponential failure-time distribution function in
parallel, with failure rate 𝜆1 , 𝜆2 , 𝜆3 … … … … , 𝜆n ,
𝐹 𝑡 = 1−𝑅

For identical failure function,

𝑅 (𝑡) = 1 − [1 − exp(−𝜆𝑡)]
1 1 1
𝑀𝑇𝐵𝐹 = 1 + + ⋯…+
𝜆 2 𝑁

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Example: Combination System

A subassembly in a computer system consists of three

components in parallel (with equal reliability = 0.75) and
one in series with a reliability of 0.97 per 100 hours of
operation. What will be the system failure rate and MTBF
of the system?

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Example: Combination System

A subassembly in a computer system consists of three

components in parallel (with equal reliability = 0.75) and
one in series with a reliability of 0.97 per 100 hours of
operation. What will be the system failure rate and MTBF
of the system?
Ans:
System failure rate = 18.69 failures per 10,000 hours
MTBF of the system = 535 hours

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