In a nutshell, the governance failure is clearly evident from the massive flooding that caused havoc across the

country. The government has remained unable to channelize the excess water into streams, canals, and rivers in a
timely manner. While many believe that climate change is one of the main reasons that have caused the recent
flooding in the country, the average rise in global temperature and erratic monsoon patterns—main factors of
climate change—have indeed exacerbated the floods. They also argue that the increasing sea levels have
inundated low-lying regions.

On the other hand, governance failure has been the primary cause of the recent floods in the country. In this regard,
weak flood management has contributed to the disaster owing to the lack of dams as well as the poor maintenance
of existing ones such as Tarbela and Mangla. In addition, the weak performance of Pakistan’s water management
departments, such as WAPDA and IRSA, has driven flash floods due to poor coordination between them in handling
water distribution and flood control. The recent floods in the country have also been worsened by unregulated
deforestation, leading to soil erosion and reducing the land’s ability to absorb excess water. Above all, the failure to
educate and engage communities regarding flood preparedness has intensified the impact of the floods.

In contrast, countries like the Netherlands and Japan, which are also highly prone to flooding and sea-level rise,
have successfully mitigated such disasters through strong governance, advanced infrastructure, and effective early
warning systems. Their examples show that with proper planning, investment, and coordination, even climate
challenges can be managed. As Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, aptly remarked, “It is
not the floods that destroy nations, but the failure of governance to foresee and forestall them.” Thus, poor
governance has remained one of the most deplorable factors causing the recent floods in Pakistan.
Detailed Causes of Climate Change

1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Explanation: The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas for electricity, transport, and industries
releases greenhouse gases (GHGs) — primarily carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O).

Effect: These gases trap heat in the earth’s atmosphere, intensifying the natural greenhouse effect and raising
global temperatures.

Examples:

Power plants burning coal and oil

Vehicles emitting CO₂ and nitrogen oxides

Gas flaring and oil refining industries

2. Deforestation

Explanation: Trees absorb carbon dioxide during photosynthesis. When forests are cut down for agriculture, urban
expansion, or timber, CO₂ absorption decreases while stored carbon is released into the air.

Effect: Increases CO₂ concentration and reduces the planet’s ability to regulate temperature.

Examples:

Clearing forests for cattle ranching or crops

Illegal logging in northern Pakistan (Swat, Dir)

Urban housing projects replacing green zones

3. Industrial and Agricultural Activities

Explanation: Factories and agricultural systems release significant amounts of greenhouse gases.
Industrial: Cement, steel, and chemical industries emit CO₂ and methane.

Agriculture: Livestock (especially cattle) emit methane during digestion, and the use of nitrogen-based fertilizers
produces nitrous oxide.

Examples:

Fertilizer overuse in Punjab agriculture

Brick kilns emitting smoke and CO₂

Poultry and livestock farms producing methane

4. Rapid Urbanization and Population Growth

Explanation: Urban sprawl increases demand for energy, transportation, and housing. This leads to more vehicles,
air conditioners, and construction activities — all of which release heat and pollutants.

Effect: Creation of “urban heat islands” — cities that are significantly warmer than their surroundings.

Examples:

Karachi and Lahore experiencing higher average temperatures

Traffic congestion increasing CO₂ and NO₂ emissions

5. Unsustainable Energy Consumption

Explanation: Heavy reliance on non-renewable energy sources like coal and oil leads to high carbon emissions. Lack
of investment in renewable energy worsens the issue.

Effect: Increases the concentration of greenhouse gases and contributes to global warming.

Examples:
Thermal power plants in Pakistan (e.g., coal-based)

Diesel generators used during electricity shortages

6. Transportation Sector

Explanation: Vehicles powered by petrol or diesel are major emitters of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and CO₂.

Effect: These gases contribute to both air pollution and the greenhouse effect.

Examples:

Rising number of cars and motorcycles in major cities

Poor-quality fuel and lack of emission control systems

7. Waste Mismanagement

Explanation: Improper disposal of solid waste, especially organic waste in landfills, produces methane during
decomposition.

Effect: Methane is about 25 times more potent than CO₂ as a heat-trapping gas.

Examples:

Open dumping sites in Karachi and Lahore

Lack of recycling systems

8. Industrialization Without Environmental Controls

Explanation: In developing countries, industries often lack pollution control technologies and discharge toxic gases
and waste into the environment.

Effect: Increases CO₂, particulate matter, and chemical pollutants in the air.
Examples:

Textile, leather, and cement factories in Pakistan emitting untreated smoke

9. Overuse of Fertilizers and Pesticides

Explanation: Excessive use of nitrogen-based fertilizers releases nitrous oxide (N₂O), a potent greenhouse gas.

Effect: Contributes to global warming and depletes soil health.

Examples:

Over-fertilization in agricultural regions of Punjab and Sindh

10. Land Use Changes

Explanation: Converting natural landscapes (forests, wetlands) into urban or agricultural land alters the natural
carbon balance.

Effect: Reduces CO₂ absorption and increases emissions through soil disturbance.

Examples:

Draining wetlands or cutting mangroves along coastal areas

11. Melting of Permafrost

Explanation: In colder regions, frozen soils (permafrost) store large amounts of carbon. When they melt due to rising
temperatures, they release methane and CO₂.

Effect: This accelerates global warming — a self-reinforcing cycle.

12. Increased Use of Air Conditioning and Refrigeration

Explanation: Cooling systems consume large amounts of electricity and emit hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent
greenhouse gases.

Effect: Contributes to global warming and ozone depletion.

13. Mining and Extraction Activities

Explanation: Mining for coal, oil, and minerals releases trapped methane and disturbs ecosystems.

Effect: Adds to GHG emissions and reduces vegetation cover.

Examples:

Coal mining in Thar region, Sindh

14. Natural Causes (Minor but Contributing)

While human activities are the primary cause, some natural factors also play a role:

Volcanic Eruptions: Release CO₂ and sulfur dioxide, temporarily altering climate.

Solar Variations: Changes in solar radiation affect earth’s temperature cycles.

Ocean Currents: Natural changes in oceanic circulation can influence climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña.

15. Global Industrial Supply Chains

Explanation: Global trade, shipping, and manufacturing emit vast quantities of CO₂ through heavy transportation
and production processes.

Effect: The more products a nation imports/exports using fuel-based transport, the higher its indirect carbon
footprint.

16. Excessive Groundwater Extraction

Explanation: Over-pumping groundwater (for agriculture and cities) changes the earth’s moisture balance and
releases CO₂ from soil layers.

Effect: Contributes indirectly to atmospheric changes and drought cycles.

How Climate Change is a Threat for Economic Prosperity of Pakistan

Pakistan’s economy is highly sensitive to environmental changes because it depends largely on agriculture, water
resources, and energy — all of which are directly affected by climate change. Below are the main ways through
which climate change threatens Pakistan’s economic stability and development:

1. Agricultural Losses

 Explanation: Agriculture contributes nearly 20% to Pakistan’s GDP and employs a large share of its
population. However, unpredictable weather patterns, floods, and prolonged droughts destroy major crops
such as wheat, rice, sugarcane, and cotton.

 Impact:

o Crop failures cause food shortages and increase prices (inflation).

o Farmers face income losses and debt.

o Exports of cotton and rice decline, reducing foreign exchange earnings.

 Example: The 2022 floods damaged more than 4 million acres of farmland, causing a loss of over $30
billion to the economy.

2. Water Scarcity

 Explanation: Pakistan relies on glacial melt and monsoon rains for irrigation and hydropower. Climate
change causes glaciers to melt faster and alters rainfall patterns, creating cycles of floods and droughts.

 Impact:

o Water shortage for crops, livestock, and drinking purposes.

o Reduced agricultural productivity and power generation.

o Disputes among provinces over water distribution (e.g., Sindh vs Punjab).

 Example: The Indus River System faces reduced water flow due to rising temperatures and changing
glacial patterns in the Himalayas and Karakoram ranges.

3. Infrastructure Damage
  Explanation: Extreme weather events such as floods, heavy rainfall, landslides, and heatwaves cause
large-scale destruction of physical infrastructure.

 Impact:

o Roads, bridges, railway tracks, and homes are frequently damaged.

o Reconstruction demands billions from the national budget, diverting funds from development
projects.

 Example: The 2022 monsoon floods washed away over 13,000 km of roads and 400 bridges,
severely affecting transport and trade.

4. Health and Productivity Issues

 Explanation: Rising temperatures and pollution increase the spread of diseases such as malaria, dengue,
and heatstroke. People working outdoors (farmers, laborers) face declining productivity due to heat stress.

 Impact:

o More healthcare expenses for both government and citizens.

o Lower productivity reduces industrial and agricultural output.

o Increased death rates and poor quality of life in urban slums.

 Example: The 2015 Karachi heatwave killed over 1,200 people and overwhelmed hospitals.

5. Energy Crisis

 Explanation: Pakistan’s electricity generation heavily depends on hydropower, which needs a steady
water supply. Climate change disrupts this through irregular rainfall and glacier melting.

 Impact:

o Reduced hydropower output during dry seasons.

o Greater dependence on costly imported fuel for thermal power generation.

o Frequent power outages (load-shedding) that hinder industrial activity.

 Example: During drought years, dams like Tarbela and Mangla operate below capacity, leading to
nationwide energy shortages.

6. Tourism and Livelihoods

 Explanation: Pakistan’s northern areas depend on natural beauty, glaciers, and biodiversity to attract
tourists. Climate change causes glacial melting, deforestation, and habitat loss, reducing scenic value.

 Impact:

o Fewer tourists mean loss of income for local businesses and communities.

o Damaged ecosystems reduce biodiversity and wildlife.

  Example: Melting glaciers in Hunza and Gilgit-Baltistan have led to glacial lake outburst floods
(GLOFs) that destroy tourist routes and villages.

7. Food Insecurity

 Explanation: Decline in crop yield and livestock productivity leads to food shortages. Rising temperatures
and water scarcity reduce arable land.

 Impact:

o Rising food prices and hunger in rural areas.

o Increased import of food items, worsening trade deficit.

 Example: The 2022 floods caused the loss of 80% of Sindh’s crops, leading to food shortages
nationwide.

8. Increased Poverty and Unemployment

 Explanation: As agriculture and industry suffer, millions lose their livelihoods. Reconstruction costs and
inflation push more people below the poverty line.

 Impact:

o Rural migration to cities, creating urban slums.

o Reduced job opportunities in affected areas.

 Example: According to UNDP, Pakistan may face up to 9 million climate-induced job losses by 2030.

9. Decline in Foreign Investment

 Explanation: Investors avoid regions with environmental risks such as floods or energy shortages.

 Impact:

o Reduced economic growth and fewer employment opportunities.

o Decline in industrial expansion.

 Example: Flood-prone districts in Sindh and Balochistan have seen limited industrial investment due
to repeated climate disasters.

10. Damage to Coastal Economy

 Explanation: Rising sea levels and coastal erosion threaten Karachi, Thatta, and Badin. Salinity intrusion
affects agriculture and fisheries.

 Impact:

o Destruction of settlements, ports, and industries near the coast.

o Loss of livelihood for fishermen.

  Example: Sea intrusion in Thatta and Badin has submerged thousands of acres of farmland and
displaced coastal communities.

Recent Facts & Figures about Climate Threats in Pakistan

1. Annual Losses from Disasters (~$2 billion/year)

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) reports that Pakistan suffers more than US$2 billion in average
annual losses due to climate‐related disasters. Profit by Pakistan Today

2. 2025 Monsoon Floods Cost ~US$1.4 Billion

o The 2025 floods inflicted about Rs 409 billion (~US$1.4 billion) in damages, which is around
0.33% of Pakistan’s GDP. Profit by Pakistan Today+1

o Of that, agriculture alone suffered ~Rs 302 billion (~US$1.0 billion) — nearly three-quarters of
the total damage. Profit by Pakistan Today+1

o Transportation & communication damage was ~Rs 97.6 billion (~US$333 million). Housing
and other losses added smaller but still significant amounts. Profit by Pakistan Today

3. Crop & Livestock Losses from Recent Floods

o Floods washed away about 1.5 million cotton bales in Punjab, destroying up to 30-40% of the
crop in some areas. Business Recorder+1

o Rice and sugarcane harvests, wheat, maize also heavily damaged: e.g. rice production in many
areas destroyed (~60% in central/southern Punjab), and large tonnage losses in wheat and maize.
Business Recorder

4. Projected GDP Reduction by Mid-Century / 2070

o The World Bank estimates climate change could reduce Pakistan’s GDP by 18-20% by 2050
under various risk scenarios. Dawn

o ADB projects that under a high emissions scenario, Pakistan’s GDP could be 21.1% lower by
2070. Business Recorder

5. Damage to Farmers and Specific Crops from Recent Rains (Sindh, etc.)

o In Sindh, recent heavy rain and flooding caused losses of ~Rs 86.86 billion to farmers. Dawn+1

o Damage included total destruction of many acres of cotton, rice, date palm, and sugar cane
crops; partial losses in others. Dawn+1

6. Glacial Melt and Water Instability

o Pakistan has ~13,000 glaciers in the northern areas. Rising temperatures are accelerating
glacier retreat, which threatens the long-term water supply for agriculture, hydroelectric power,
and communities. UNDP Climate Promise

o There is concern that glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) will increase because of the melting and
formation of unstable glacial lakes. UNDP Climate Promise

7. Inflation, Growth, and Poverty Impacts

o Because of the 2025 floods, agricultural contribution to GDP is projected to fall (in affected areas)
and overall GDP growth forecast was revised downward. E.g. from ~2.2% to 1.1% for agriculture
in some projections. Profit by Pakistan Today+1

o Food inflation may rise by 20–30% in affected regions due to crop losses and supply chain
disruptions. Profit by Pakistan Today
 o The number of people pushed into poverty by past floods (e.g., 2022) was reported in the millions
(for instance ~9 million people in poverty following the 2022 floods). Al Jazeera

8. Long-Term Economic Risk

o Projections suggest that continued climate change without sufficient mitigation/adaptation could
cause major drops in Pakistan’s economic output, especially through impacts on labour
productivity, infrastructure damage, and agriculture