Full step-by-step solutions (Questions 9 →

17)
I'll solve each question fully, showing the distribution used, the formulas, the algebraic steps, and
the final numeric result (rounded sensibly).

9. Oil prospector — success probability p=0.2p=0.2p=0.2

(i) Probability the third hole is the first productive well.
This is a geometric trial: the first success occurs on trial k=3k=3k=3.

P(first success at 3)=(1−p)3−1p=(1−0.2)2(0.2)=0.82⋅0.2.P(\text{first success at }3)=(1-p)^{3-

1}p=(1-0.2)^2(0.2)=0.8^2\cdot0.2.P(first success at 3)=(1−p)3−1p=(1−0.2)2(0.2)=0.82⋅0.2.

Calculate:

0.82=0.64,0.64×0.2=[Link]^2=0.64,\qquad 0.64\times0.2=[Link]=0.64,0.64×0.2=0.128.

Answer: 0.128\boxed{0.128}0.128.

(ii) If he drills 10 wells, probability he finds no productive well.

Each trial independent; probability of failure =1−p=0.8=1-p=0.8=1−p=0.8. For 10 failures:

P(0 successes)=(0.8)10.P(0\ \text{successes})=(0.8)^{10}.P(0 successes)=(0.8)10.

Compute stepwise:

0.82=0.64,0.84=0.642=0.4096,0.88=0.40962=0.16777216,0.8^2=0.64,\quad
0.8^4=0.64^2=0.4096,\quad
0.8^8=0.4096^2=0.16777216,0.82=0.64,0.84=0.642=0.4096,0.88=0.40962=0.16777216,
0.810=0.88⋅0.82=0.16777216×0.64=0.1073741824.0.8^{10}=0.8^8\cdot0.8^2=0.16777216\
times0.64=0.1073741824.0.810=0.88⋅0.82=0.16777216×0.64=0.1073741824.

Answer: 0.1073741824 (≈0.1074)\boxed{0.1073741824\ (\

approx0.1074)}0.1073741824 (≈0.1074).

10. Jim — multiple choice, p=0.60p=0.60p=0.60

Probability that the 3rd correct answer occurs on the 8th attempt.

This is a negative binomial event: on trial 8 we get the 3rd success → among first 7 trials there
must be exactly 2 successes, then success on 8th.

P=(72)p3(1−p)5.P=\binom{7}{2}p^{3}(1-p)^{5}.P=(27)p3(1−p)5.

Compute step-by-step:

(72)=7⋅62=21.\binom{7}{2}=\frac{7\cdot6}{2}=21.(27)=27⋅6=21.
p3=(0.6)3=0.6×0.6×0.6=0.216.p^3=(0.6)^3=0.6\times0.6\
times0.6=0.216.p3=(0.6)3=0.6×0.6×0.6=0.216.
(1−p)5=(0.4)5=0.42⋅0.42⋅0.4=0.16⋅0.16⋅0.4=0.0256⋅0.4=0.01024.(1-p)^5=(0.4)^5=0.4^2\
cdot0.4^2\cdot0.4 = 0.16\cdot0.16\cdot0.4 =0.0256\cdot0.4=0.01024.
(1−p)5=(0.4)5=0.42⋅0.42⋅0.4=0.16⋅0.16⋅0.4=0.0256⋅0.4=0.01024.

Multiply:

0.216×0.01024=0.00221184,0.216\times0.01024=0.00221184,0.216×0.01024=0.00221184,
21×0.00221184=0.04644864.21\times0.00221184=0.04644864.21×0.00221184=0.04644864.

Answer: 0.04644864 (≈0.04645, 4.645%)\boxed{0.04644864\ (\approx0.04645,\

4.645\%)}0.04644864 (≈0.04645, 4.645%).

11. Job applicants — 10 applicants, 5 are college graduates;

pick 3 without replacement.
Probability all three are college graduates.

This is a hypergeometric situation:

P=(53)(103).P=\frac{\binom{5}{3}}{\binom{10}{3}}.P=(310)(35).

Compute:

(53)=5⋅42=10,(103)=10⋅9⋅83⋅2⋅1=120.\binom{5}{3}=\frac{5\cdot4}{2}=10,\qquad \binom{10}
{3}=\frac{10\cdot9\cdot8}{3\cdot2\cdot1}=120.(35)=25⋅4=10,(310)=3⋅2⋅110⋅9⋅8=120.

So

P=10120=112≈0.0833333.P=\frac{10}{120}=\frac{1}{12}\approx0.0833333.P=12010=121
≈0.0833333.
Answer: 112≈0.08333 (8.333%)\boxed{\tfrac{1}{12}\approx0.08333\ (8.333\%)}121
≈0.08333 (8.333%).

12. Flaws in cloth — Poisson with mean 0.1 per m². For 10
m², λ=0.1×10=1\lambda=0.1\times10=1λ=0.1×10=1.
Probability there is exactly one flaw in 10 m².

Poisson formula: P(X=k)=e−λλkk!P(X=k)=e^{-\lambda}\frac{\lambda^k}{k!}P(X=k)=e−λk!λk.

With λ=1, k=1\lambda=1,\ k=1λ=1, k=1:

P(X=1)=e−1111!=e−1.P(X=1)=e^{-1}\frac{1^1}{1!}=e^{-1}.P(X=1)=e−11!11=e−1.

Evaluate e−1=1/ee^{-1}=1/ee−1=1/e. Using e≈2.718281828459045e\

approx2.718281828459045e≈2.718281828459045:

e−1≈0.36787944117144233.e^{-1}\approx0.36787944117144233.e−1≈0.36787944117144233.

Answer: 0.3678794412 (≈0.36788)\boxed{0.3678794412\ (\

approx0.36788)}0.3678794412 (≈0.36788).

13. Phone calls — on average 2 phone calls per hour

(Poisson, λ=2\lambda=2λ=2 per hour).
Probability a phone call will come within the next hour = 1−P(no calls)1 - P(\text{no
calls})1−P(no calls).

For Poisson, P(0)=e−λP(0)=e^{-\lambda}P(0)=e−λ. So

P(≥1)=1−e−2.P(\ge1)=1-e^{-2}.P(≥1)=1−e−2.

Compute:

e−2≈0.1353352832366127,1−e−2≈0.8646647167633873.e^{-2}\approx0.1353352832366127,\
quad 1-e^{-2}\
approx0.8646647167633873.e−2≈0.1353352832366127,1−e−2≈0.8646647167633873.

Answer: 0.8646647168 (≈86.466%)\boxed{0.8646647168\ (\

approx86.466\%)}0.8646647168 (≈86.466%).
(Interpretation: about 86.47% chance of at least one call in the hour.)

14. Bucket with 75 mosquito larvae in 5 L (5000 mL). A 200

mL flask is taken.
Find probability the flask contains at least one larva.

Modeling assumption: each of the 75 larvae independently has probability p=2005000=0.04p=\

the sample ∼Binomial(n=75,p=0.04)\sim\mathrm{Binomial}

dfrac{200}{5000}=0.04p=5000200=0.04 of being in the 200 mL sample. Then the number in

(n=75,p=0.04)∼Binomial(n=75,p=0.04). (This is a good approximation when larvae are

randomly and independently distributed; an exact hypergeometric could be used if you model
discrete mL units.)

We want P(≥1)=1−P(0)=1−(1−p)75P(\ge1)=1-P(0) = 1-(1-p)^{75}P(≥1)=1−P(0)=1−(1−p)75.

Compute:

1−p=0.96,(0.96)75≈0.04681041355184099,1-p=0.96,\qquad (0.96)^{75}\approx
0.04681041355184099,1−p=0.96,(0.96)75≈0.04681041355184099,
P(≥1)=1−0.04681041355184099=0.953189586448159.P(\ge1)=1-
0.04681041355184099=0.953189586448159.P(≥1)=1−0.04681041355184099=0.953189586448
159.

Answer: 0.9531895864 (≈95.32%)\boxed{0.9531895864\ (\

approx95.32\%)}0.9531895864 (≈95.32%).

(Note: if you want the exact hypergeometric form it would be 1−(5000−75200)(5000200)1-\

dfrac{\binom{5000-75}{200}}{\binom{5000}{200}}1−(2005000)(2005000−75), but the
binomial approximation above is simpler and very accurate here.)

15. Monthly garbage — Normal with mean μ=28\

mu=28μ=28 kg and standard deviation σ=2\sigma=2σ=2 kg.
(i) P(X>30.2)P(X>30.2)P(X>30.2).

Compute z-score:

z=30.2−282=2.22=1.1.z=\frac{30.2-28}{2}=\frac{2.2}{2}=1.1.z=230.2−28=22.2=1.1.
So

P(X>30.2)=1−Φ(1.1).P(X>30.2)=1-\Phi(1.1).P(X>30.2)=1−Φ(1.1).

Using the standard normal table (or Φ\PhiΦ via the error function),
Φ(1.1)≈0.8643339390536172\Phi(1.1)\
approx0.8643339390536172Φ(1.1)≈0.8643339390536172. Thus

P(X>30.2)≈1−0.8643339390536172=0.1356660609463828.P(X>30.2)\approx1-
0.8643339390536172=0.1356660609463828.P(X>30.2)≈1−0.8643339390536172=0.135666060
9463828.

Answer: 0.1356660609 (≈13.57%)\boxed{0.1356660609\ (\

approx13.57\%)}0.1356660609 (≈13.57%).

(ii) P(27<X<31)P(27<X<31)P(27<X<31).

Z-scores:

z27=27−282=−0.5,z31=31−282=1.5.z_{27}=\frac{27-28}{2}=-0.5,\qquad z_{31}=\frac{31-28}
{2}=1.5.z27=227−28=−0.5,z31=231−28=1.5.

So

P(27<X<31)=Φ(1.5)−Φ(−0.5).P(27<X<31)=\Phi(1.5)-\Phi(-0.5).P(27<X<31)=Φ(1.5)−Φ(−0.5).

Using values Φ(1.5)≈0.9331927987311419\Phi(1.5)\

approx0.9331927987311419Φ(1.5)≈0.9331927987311419 and Φ(−0.5)≈0.3085375387259869\
Phi(-0.5)\approx0.3085375387259869Φ(−0.5)≈0.3085375387259869,

P≈0.9331927987311419−0.3085375387259869=0.624655260005155.P\
approx0.9331927987311419-
0.3085375387259869=0.624655260005155.P≈0.9331927987311419−0.3085375387259869=0.6
24655260005155.

Answer: 0.6246552600 (≈62.47%)\boxed{0.6246552600\ (\

approx62.47\%)}0.6246552600 (≈62.47%).

16. Bearings — Normally distributed with mean μ=5.0005\

mu=5.0005μ=5.0005 inch and σ=0.0010\
sigma=0.0010σ=0.0010 inch.
Specification: diameters must lie in the interval [5.000−0.0020, 5.000+0.0020]=[4.998, 5.002]
[5.000-0.0020,\;5.000+0.0020]=[4.998,\;5.002][5.000−0.0020,5.000+0.0020]=[4.998,5.002].
Anything outside that interval is scrap. Find fraction that will be scrap.

Compute z-scores for the specification bounds:

zlow=4.998−5.00050.001=−0.00250.001=−2.5,z_{\text{low}}=\frac{4.998-5.0005}{0.001}=\
frac{-0.0025}{0.001}=-2.5,zlow=0.0014.998−5.0005=0.001−0.0025=−2.5,
zhigh=5.002−5.00050.001=0.00150.001=1.5.z_{\text{high}}=\frac{5.002-5.0005}{0.001}=\
frac{0.0015}{0.001}=[Link]=0.0015.002−5.0005=0.0010.0015=1.5.

Scrap proportion =P(X<4.998)+P(X>5.002)=Φ(−2.5)+[1−Φ(1.5)]=P(X<4.998)+P(X>5.002)=\

Phi(-2.5)+[1-\Phi(1.5)]=P(X<4.998)+P(X>5.002)=Φ(−2.5)+[1−Φ(1.5)].

Using values:

Φ(−2.5)≈0.006209665325776132,1−Φ(1.5)≈1−0.9331927987311419=0.06680720126885807.\
Phi(-2.5)\approx0.006209665325776132,\quad 1-\Phi(1.5)\approx1-
0.9331927987311419=0.06680720126885807.Φ(−2.5)≈0.006209665325776132,1−Φ(1.5)≈1−0.
9331927987311419=0.06680720126885807.

Sum:

0.006209665325776132+0.06680720126885807=0.0730168665946342 (approximately).0.0062
09665325776132+0.06680720126885807=0.0730168665946342\ (\
text{approximately}).0.006209665325776132+0.06680720126885807=0.0730168665946342 (a
pproximately).

Answer: 0.0730168666 (≈7.3017%)\boxed{0.0730168666\ (\

approx7.3017\%)}0.0730168666 (≈7.3017%).

(About 7.30% of production will be scrap under the current machine setting.)

17. Download time — Normally distributed with mean

μ=6.5\mu=6.5μ=6.5 sec and variance =5.29=5.29=5.29.
Standard deviation σ=5.29=2.3\sigma=\sqrt{5.29}=2.3σ=5.29=2.3 sec. Find percentage with
download time less than 5 seconds.

Compute z-score:

z=5−6.52.3=−1.52.3≈−0.6521739130.z=\frac{5-6.5}{2.3}=\frac{-1.5}{2.3}\approx-
0.6521739130.z=2.35−6.5=2.3−1.5≈−0.6521739130.
So

P(X<5)=Φ(−0.6521739130)≈0.2571444933580459.P(X<5)=\Phi(-0.6521739130)\
approx0.2571444933580459.P(X<5)=Φ(−0.6521739130)≈0.2571444933580459.

Answer: 0.2571444934 (≈25.71%)\boxed{0.2571444934\ (\

approx25.71\%)}0.2571444934 (≈25.71%).