111.
REVIEWw TECHNIQUE (PERT)
4.5 PROGRAMME EVALUATION
take into account the uncertainty of project durations intoaceoe.
This technique unlike CPM,
time estimates.
PERT calculations depends upon the following three
everything
Optimistic (least) time estimate: (t. or a) is the duration of any activity when
in time machines are
goes on very well during the project i.e., laborers are available and come
material
working properlv, money is available whenever needed there is no scarcity of raw
needed etc.
Pessimistic (Greatest) time estimate (t or b) is the duration of any activity when almost
everything goes against our will and a lot of difficulties is faced while doling a project.
Most likely time estimate: (t,m or m) is the duration of any activity when sometime things go
on very well, sometimes things on very bad while doing a project.
Two main assumptions made in PERT calculations are
i. The activity durations are independent i.e., the time required compute an activity wllhave
no bearing on the completion times of any other activity of the project.
ii. The activity durations follows B-distribution with density function k(t -a) (b-t with mean
-,4,-.)
3
andthe standard duration g
PERT procedure
1. Draw the project network.
2. Compute the expected duralion of cach activity L,
variance of cach activity.
Computethe
expected
:
earliest start, carliest finish, latest start, latest finish and total float of each
Compute the
4
activity.
path andidentify critical
activities.
Determinethe critical critical
5 variance of the project length (also calledthe variance of the
Computethe expected variance of all the critical activities.
6 which is thesum of the calculate the standard
path) o deviation of the project length cc and
standard
Computethe expected
7.
normal deviate T-E where,
Cc
scheduled time to compute the project
I.- Specified or
expected project duration.
-Normal
deviation ofthe project length.
o, =Expected standard
completing project within a specified time,
estimate the probability of
8. Using (7)one can
(area) tables.
using the normal curve
Example 1:
and three times estimates of these activities
network for the project whose activities
Construct the
(n weeks) are given below. Compute
activity.
(a) Expected duration of each
(b) Expected variance of each activity.
(c) Expected variance of the project length.
Activity
3 4
1-2
2-3 1 2
4
2-4 2 3
3 -5 3 4
4-5 3
4 -6 7
5
5 -7 4
6-7
7-8
4
7-9 3
8- 10 4 8
9
7
Solution
(a) and (b)
10
2 8
Expected duration Expected variance
Activity
1-2 3 5 4
% = 0.11 nearty
2-3 1 2 3 2 =0.11
2-4 2 4 3
9 =0.11
3-5 3 4 4
Yo-0.11
4-5 3
4, =0.44
4-6 3 5 7
9=0.44
5-7 4 6 5
o-0.11
6-7 6 7 8
9 =0.1l
7-8 2 6 4 =0.44
7-9 2
2 -0.11
8-10 4 6
0.44
9-10 3 5
o-0.44
2 ’ 4 ’ 6 ’ 7 ’8 ’ 10
Critical path1 >
=29 weeks
Fpected projcct duration
Expected variance of the project length = sum of the expected variances of all the critical
activities
=1.67
99 9 9 9 9 3
(0.11 + 0.11 + 0.44 + 0.11 +0.44 +0.44)
= 1.32 +0.33
= 1.65.
Example 2:
The following table indicates the details of a project. The duration are in days "a" refers to
optimistic time. "m" refers tomost likely timeand b" refers to pessimistic timeduration.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-42-53-5 4-5
2 3 4 8 6 2
m 4 4 5 3 5
6 6 11 12 4
(a) Draw the network.
(b) Find the critical path.
(c) Determine the expected standard duration of the completion of time.
Solution
Activity a b Expected duration (t) Expected variance (o)
1-2 2 4 3.83
J-3 3 4 6 4.17
J-4 4 5 6
2-4 9 9.17
2-5 12 8.33
3-4 2 4
4 -5 25
2 5 7 4.83 36
3.83
8.33
4.17
9.17
3
5 4.83
Criticalpath 1’ 2 ’4’5
Expected project duration = 17.83 days
Expected variance of the completion time = 1,125 43
4 +4 36 36
Expected standard deviation of the completion time - 43 =1.09 Nearly
V36
Example 3:
A project consists of the following activities and timne
estimates:
Activity Least time (days) Greatest time Most likely time
(days) (days)
1-2 15 6
2-3 2 14 5
1-4 6 30 12
2-5 2 8
2-6
17 11
3-6
15 6
4-7 27
5-7
7 4
6-7 2
(a) Draw the network
(b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 27
days ?
Solution
Obviously greaesttime =Pessimistic ime =,
least ime =optimistic ime
Most likely time
CPM/PERT 4.29
6
7
14 11
Activity
1-2 15 7
1-3 2 14 5 6 4
1-4 6 30 12 14 16
2-5 2 5
2-6 5 17 11 11 4
3-6 3 15 6 4
4-7 27 11 16
5-7 1 7 4 4 1
6-7 2 5
Critical path 1 -’ 4 ’7
Expected project duration = 25 days
Expected variance of the project length = sum of the expected variances of all the critical
activities
= 16+ 16 =32
° =Standard deviation of the project length = Z 1 -T,_27- 25 2
=0.35
5.656 5.656
TObabilitythat the project will be completed in 27 days.
=P(T,< 27)= P(Z<0.35)
=0.6368 = 63.7%.