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EXERCISES
PROBABILITIES

Applied Statistics.
May 2008.

1) A consumer is asked to rank the flavor in order of preference.

five beer brands. If the consumer is indifferent to any of these
five brands, what is the probability that a specific arrangement is
chosen by chance.

Resp.:

#(Ω= 5! = 120 possible distinct arrangements.

1 1
P(Specific Ordering) = =
# ( Ω) 120

You have a collection of a certain novel that is located

business in 4 volumes, determine the probability that these remain in the
order I, II, III, and IV.

Response:

In Sea A: the books are arranged in the order I, II, III, and IV.
1 way.
#(Ω4! = 24 ways.

(A) 1
P(A) = =
#( Ω ) 24

3) Suppose that next semester only 6 courses will be taught, 4 of

general studies and 3 electives, what is the probability of taking 3 subjects from
random result:

a) 2 majors and 1 elective.

b) All subjects should be general studies.
c) All branches are of the same type.

4) Suppose there are 10 pairs of shoes on a shelf, if 1 is taken

By chance, what is the probability that the pair is correct.

5) Suppose that a game of chance consists of 20 alternatives and only 2 are the ones that
they win. If you buy 2 alternatives, what is the probability that you win with
some of them.

Resp.:

Sea A1the person wins 1 prize.

A2the person wins both prizes.
2 18
#(A1) = C1C•1 = 36 ways
2 18
A2) = C2C•0 1 way
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6) A phone number in the city of Valparaíso has 6 digits. We know that

In this city, there are numbering systems that cannot start with certain digits.
Considering this background, determine:

a) The probability that all the digits in it are different.

b) The probability that all the digits in it are odd.

7) Suppose you have 6 negative numbers and 8 positive ones, of which you choose
4 randomly and multiplies them. What is the probability that the product of these
numbers be a positive number.

Resp.:

Set A: the product of the numbers is positive.

8 6 8 6 8 6
#(A) = C4C•0C2C+2C0C4• + • = 70 + 420 + 15 = 505
14
#(Ω) = C4 = 1.001
P(A) = 0,5050

In a certain basic education course, there are a total of 10 girls, from

which 3 present concentration problems. If 2 girls are chosen
randomly, determine the probability that:

Exactly 2 girls have concentration problems.

b) Ninguna niña presenten problemas de concentración.
At least 1 girl has concentration problems.

9) Suppose we conduct the following experiment: a die is thrown 2 times. We

define the random variable X: the maximum of the values that appear when rolling
roll a die twice. Based on this experience, define the sample space and the
route associated with the random variable X.

Resp.:

Ω = {1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 15-, 1-6, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3,...2-6,...6-1, 6-2, 6-2,...6-6}

Rx= {1,2,3,4,5,6}

10) Let A and B be two events defined with P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and P(A∩ B) = 1/4.
Find:

a) P(A|B)
b) P(B/A)
c) P(Ac/Bc)

11) Suppose a urn contains 6 red balls and 3 black ones, determine the
probability of:

a) Draw 1 black ball on the first try.

b) Draw 1 red ball in both the first and second attempt.

Resp.:
6 3

P(1ºN) = C0C1 = 3 = 1
9
C1 9 3
3 6
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12) Suppose that a urn contains 5 white balls and 3 black ones and another different urn
it contains 4 white balls and 6 black ones. One ball is taken from each urn and placed
in a third; from the last one, 1 ball is drawn, determine the probability that
this little ball is black.

Resp.:

See you1the ball is from the first ballot box.

U2the ball is from the second ballot box.
B: the ball is white.
The ball is black.

3
P(N/U1) =
8
6
P(N/U2) =
10
P(N) = P(N/U1)P(U1) + P(N/U2)P(U2)
3 1 6 1 3 6 60+ 96 156 39
= · + · = + = = =
8 2 10 2 16 20 320 320 80

It is known that in a group of 120 people, 60 study English, 50 French, and 20

They study both languages. If 1 person is chosen at random from this group, what is
the probability of:

a) That I study a language.

b) That I do not study any language.
c) That only studies French.

Resp.:

Sea A: studies English.

B: study French.

Sea A∪ B: study a language.

A∩ B: studies both languages.

(A) = 60
#(B) = 50
#(A ∩ B) = 20
#(Ω) = 120

60 50 20 90
P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩ B) = + - = 0.75
120 120 120 120
c c
b) A ∩ B does not study any language.
c c
P(A ∩ B ) = 1 - P(A∪ B) = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25
c
c) A ∩ B: studies only French.

c 50 20 30
P(A ∩ B) = P(B) - P(A∩ B) = - = 0.25
120 120 120

14) Suppose that 2 cards are drawn successively from a deck of cards, what is the
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

B: the second card is KING.

P(A∩ B) = P(A) P(B/A)

Studies of the media indicate that 70% of people

listen to the radio, of which 4% watch television and 30% read the newspaper.
It is also known that 40% read the newspaper; additionally, 10% watch television.
of which 90% reads the newspaper and finally 2% listens to the radio, reads the
newspaper and watch television. Suppose a person is chosen at random, determine
the probability that she listens to the radio, reads the newspaper, or watches television.

Resp.:

Sea A: listen to the radio.

B: reads the newspaper.
by television.

P(A) = 0,7
P(B) = 0,4
P(C) = 0,1

P(B/A) = 0.3
P(B/C) = 0.9
P(C/A) = 0.04

P(A∩ B∩ C) = 0.02

P(A∪ B∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A∩ B) - P(A∩ C) - P(B∩ C) + P(A∩ B∩ C)

= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(B/A)P(A) - P(B/C)P(C) - P(C/A)P(A) - P(A∩ B∩ C)
= 0,7 + 0,4 + 0,1 - 0,21 - 0,09 - 0,028 + 0,02 = 0,892

16) Statistics from a certain city indicate that 30% of the violations
of traffic correspond to those processed for speeding; 40% of the
drivers arrested for drunk driving are speeding;
20% of those who speed are driving under the influence
drunkenness. Determine the % of offenders who are arrested while in a state of
drunkenness.

Resp.:

Option A: leads to speeding.

drives drunk.

P(A) = 0,3

P(A/B) = 0,4 P(B/A) = 0,2

P(B|A)P(A) 0.2 · 0.3

P(B) = = 0.15
P(A/B) 0.4

17) Suppose that 3 shots are fired at an airplane. The probability of hitting it
with the first shot is 0.5, with the second 0.6 and with the third 0.8. For
shooting down the plane is enough to hit 3 times. If you hit it once, the plane will
breakdown with a probability of 0.3, if it breaks down 2 times
probability of 0.6. Find the probability that as a result of the 3 shots
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

B1The 1st shot hits.

B2the 2nd shot hits.
B3The 3rd shot is hit.

C: no shot hits.
C1It is guessed once.
C2You get it right 2 times.
C3hits 3 times.

P(B1) = 0.5
P(B2= 0.6
P(B3= 0.8

P(A/C1= 0.3
P(A/C20.6
P(A/C31
P(A/C) = 0

c c c
P(C) = P(B ∩1 B∩ B 2 ) = 3 0.5 • 0.4 • 0.2 = 0.04
c c c c c c
P(C1) = P(B1∩ B∩2B∪ B∩3 B2∩ B1∪ B∩ B∩ B33) 1 2
(0.5 • 0.4 • 0.2) + (0.5 • 0.6 • 0.2) + (0.5 • 0.4 • 0.8)
0.04 + 0.06 + 0.16 = 0.26
c c c
P(C2) = P(B∩1 B2∩ B3∪ B1∩ B∩ B3∪ 2B1∩ B2∩ B ) 3
(0.5 • 0.6 • 0.8) + (0.5 • 0.4 • 0.8) + (0.5 • 0.6 • 0.2)
0.24 + 0.8 + 0.5 = 0.46
P(C3) = P(B1∩ B2∩ B30.5 + 0.6 + 0.8 = 0.24

P(A) = P(A∩ C∪ A∩ C1∪ A∩ C2∪ A∩ C3)

= P(A|C) P(C) + P(A|C1) P(C1) + P(A/ C2P(C2) + P(A/ C3) P(C3)
= 0 • 0,04 + 0,3 • 0,26 + 0,6 • 0,46 + 1 • 0,24 = 0,78 + 0,276 + 0,24 = 0,594

18) A certain item is produced by 3 workshops; the first 2 produce the same number.
of the item while the third produces double. It is known that 4% of the items
produced by workshop 1 are defective, regarding workshops 2 and 3
they produce 2% of defective items each. Daily production is gathered
In a warehouse, an item is randomly chosen from there, what is the probability
that this be defective.

A personnel director has eight candidates to fill four positions.

Of them, five are men and three are women. Yes, in fact, every combination of
candidates have the same chances of being chosen:

a) What is the probability that no woman is hired.

b) What is the probability that at least one woman is selected.

Resp.:

a) Sea A: no woman is chosen to fill the positions.

5
#(A) = C4 5 ways.
8
#(Ω) = C4 70 ways.
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5 3 5 3 5 3
#(A) = C["3"]*C1C2+C2C1C
*3 + * = 30 + 30 + 5 = 65 ways.
8
#(Ω) = C4 70 ways.

(A) 65 13
P(A) = = =
#(Ω) 70 14

20) Suppose there are 2 drawers, one white and the other black, each with 2
boxes inside. In the black drawer, there is 1 gold coin and 1 silver coin in each.
box and in the other drawer there is 1 gold coin in each box. One is chosen.
random drawer and from this one of the boxes, the found coin turns out to be gold.
What is the probability that the coin comes from the black drawer.

It is known that the probability of a person with tuberculosis undergoing a

the radiological examination is diagnosed as such is 0.95 and that a healthy person
subjected to the same test is mistakenly diagnosed with tuberculosis
0.002. It is known that 0.1% of adults are tuberculous, one adult is chosen at
chance

What is the probability of being diagnosed with tuberculosis.

b) If diagnosed with tuberculosis, what is the likelihood that it is true.

Resp.:

Sea T: the person is TBC.

The person is diagnosed with tuberculosis.

P(T) = 0,001
P(D/T) = 0.95
P(D/T)c = 0.002

a) P(D) = P(D/T) P(T) + P(D/T)cP(T) =

c 0.95 • 0.001 + 0.002 • 0.999 = 0.002948

P(D/T)P(T) 0.95• 0.001

b) P(T/D) = = 0.322
P(D) 0.002948

It is known that Arturo is a cheater; 10% of the time he uses a

coin with 2 sides. On one occasion, he tossed the coin 3 times possibly in
each time changing the coin. In total he got 3 heads. What is the
probability that Arturo has used the coin with 2 sides twice.

Resp.:

A: gets 3 heads.
B0does not use the currency.
B1use the coin with 2 faces once.
B2use the coin with 2 sides 2 times.
B3use the coin with two sides 3 times.

3
P(B0) = (0,9) 0.729
2
P(B13 (0.9) (0,1) = 0,243
2
P(B2) = 3 (0,1) (0,9) = 0,027
3
P(B3) = (0,1) 0.001
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(A/B2) = 0.5
P(A/B3) = 1

P(A) = P(B0)P(A/B0) + P(B1)P(A/B1) + P(B2)P(A/B2) + P(B3)P(A/B3)

= 0,729 • 0,125 + 0,243 • 0,25 + 0,027 • 0,5 + 0,001 • 1 = 0,166375

P(A/B2)P(B2) 0.5• 0.027

P(B2/A) = = 0.0811
P(A) 0.166375

In a certain special school, 20% of the students have sight.

Defective, 8% have a hearing impairment and 4% have both vision and hearing impairment.

a) They are 2 independent events.

b) If 1 child is chosen at random:

What is the probability that it has some defect,

ii) What is the probability that there is no defective hearing.
iii) What is the probability of having defective hearing but not defective eyesight.
iv) What is the probability that there is neither a defective vision nor hearing.

Resp.:

Sea A: faulty view.

defective hearing.

P(A) = 0,2 P(B) = 0.08 P(A∩ B) = 0.04

i) P(A∩ B)≠ P(A) P(B)

0.04≠ 0,2 • 0,08
0.04≠ 0.016

ii)
a) P(A∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) + P(A∩ B) = 0,2 + 0,08 - 0,04 = 0,24
c
b) P(B = 1 - P(B) = 1 - 0.08 = 0.92
c
c) P(A ∩ B) = P(B) - P(A∩ B) = 0.08 - 0.04 = 0.04
c
d) P(A∩ B) c= 1 - P(A∪ B) = 1 - 0.24 = 0.76

In a certain region, the probability of a thunderstorm occurring is ...

any day during the summer (January and February) is equal to 0.1. Assuming the
independence of one day from another, what is the probability that the first
thunderstorm in summer will occur on February 3.

Resp.:

0.9330.1 = 0.003

25) Carolina has 3 coins in her pocket, 1 of which is normal. The other 2
(abnormal) coins are loaded in such a way that the probability of them
the odds are 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. Carolina selects 1 of the coins.
at random

a) If he/she throws it 3 times and observes 2 heads. Find the probability that there is
selected the normal currency.
b) If it is thrown 4 times and 3 seals are observed. Find the probability that there are none.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY – VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

A1loaded coin 0.4.

A2loaded coin 0.3.
CCS: the result is 2 heads and 1 tail.

P(CCS/N) = 0.53 = 0.125

P(N) = 0,3

P(CCS) = P(CCS/N)P(N) + P(CCS/A1)P(A1) + P(CCS/A2)P(A2)

= 0.125·0.3 + 0.096·0.3 + 0.063·0.3 = 0.0852

P(CCS/N)P(N) 0.125• 0.3

a) P(N/CCS) = = = 0.4401
P(CCS) 0.0852

b) If SSSC: the result is 3 seals and 1 face.

P(SSSC/A)20.1029

P(A2= 0.3

P(SSSC) = P(SSSC/N)P(N) + P(SSSC/A1)P(A1) + P(SSSC/A2)P(A2)

= 0,0625·0,3 + 0,0864·0,3 + 0,1029·0,3 = 0,07554

P(SSSC/A2)P(A2) 0.1029• 0.3

P(A2/SSSC) = = 0.4087
P(SSSC) 0.07554

An instrument to detect AIDS detects the virus 95% of the time in

that the patient has that disease and detects the virus 20% of the time
in which the patient does not have AIDS. Consider the events A: the instrument
detects AIDS and B: the patient has AIDS. Assume that the probability of B
It is 0.05. Calculate the probability that the patient has AIDS given that the
instrument detected AIDS.

Resp.:

P(A/B) = 0.95
P(A/Bc) = 0.2

P(B) = 0,05

P(A) = P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|B c)P(Bc)

= 0.95 · 0.05 + 0.2 · 0.95 = 0.0475 + 0.19 = 0.2375

P(A|B)P(B) 0.95• 0.05

P(B/A) = = 0.2
P(A) 0.2375

27) The probability of mechanical failure in a system to prevent leaks

Radiation in a nuclear plant is 0.002. An additional sensor device is
designed to detect any failure in the mechanical system and activate a system
emergency cut-off to stop the leak. The probability that this
the device fails when it needs to function is 0.03. Evaluate the risk of
a radiation leak in the plant, that is, find the probability that
both devices are fallen.

Resp.:
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(M/F) = 0.03

P(M∩ F) = P(M/F)P(F) = 0.03 · 0.002 = 0.00006

1 card is drawn from a deck of cards.

Sea A: the drawn card is an ACE and B: the drawn card is a KING.

In how many ways can it happen that an ACE is drawn or a KING is drawn.

Resp.:

A: it happens in 4 ways.
It happens in 4 ways.
A or B: it occurs in 4 + 4 = 8 ways.

How many outcomes are there when rolling 1 die and flipping 1 coin together.

Resp.:

Sea A: number of ways the DIE falls: it falls in 6 ways.

B: number of ways the COIN falls: it falls in 2 ways.
A and B: number of ways the DIE and the COIN fall.
A and B can be arranged in 6 • 2 = 12 ways.

30) To travel from Valparaíso to Santiago, there are 5 bus lines. How many
how many ways can the round trip be made if:

a) You can go back on the same line.

b) One cannot return on the same line.

Resp.:

a) Sea A: number of ways to make the trip to Santiago: 5 ways.

B: number of ways to travel to Valparaíso: 5 ways.
A and B: number of ways to make the trip to Santiago and the return trip to
Valparaíso.
A and B can be done in 5 • 5 = 25 ways.

b) Sea A: number of ways to make the trip to Santiago: 5 ways.

B: number of ways to make the trip to Valparaíso: 4 ways.
A and B: number of ways to make the trip to Santiago and the return trip back
Valparaíso.

A and B can be done in 5 • 4 = 20 ways.

31) There is a list of 7 people. How many ways can they be presented?
list if the top 4 must always occupy the top 4 positions.

Resp.:

4! • 3! = 144

It is estimated that 48% of bachelor's degrees are obtained by women and that
17.5% of all degrees are in business sciences. 4.7% of
All the degrees belong to women who graduate in sciences.
Programas de Ingeniería TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

Sean A: The lawyer is a woman.

The graduate has a degree in business sciences.
P(A) = 0.48
P(B) =0,175
P(A/B) = 0.047

P(A) * P(B) = (0,48) * (0,175) = 0,084 ≠ P(A/B) = 0,047

Therefore, these events are not independent.

There is a box with 10 vials, of which 4 are burned. One is taken.

a sample (without replacement) of 3 vials.

a) How many samples are possible.

b) In how many samples does no bulb burn out.
c) In how many samples do 2 burned bulbs come out.

Resp.:

10
a) C3 = 120

4 6
b) C0 C• 3 = 20

4 6
c) C2C•1 = 36

34) Sean A and B two events such that:

P(A) = 1/2 P(B) = 1/3 P(A∩ B) = 1/4

Find:

P(A/B)
b) P(B/A)
c) P(Ac/Bc)

Resp.:

P(A∩ B) 1/4 3
a) P(A/B) = = =
P(B) 1/3 4

P(A∩ B) 1/4 1
b) P(B/A) = = =
P(A) 1/2 2

P(Ac ∩ Bc) 1− P(A∪ B) 1− (P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B))

c) P(Ac/Bc) = = =
P(B )c
1− P(B) 1− P(B)
1− (1/2+ 1/3−1/4 1− 7/12 5/12 15 5
= = = = =
1−1/3 1−1/3 2/3 24 8

A person throws 3 coins in the air. Indicate the probability that they are all 3.
faces or the 3 seals.
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4 people successively draw 1 card without replacement from a deck of cards.

What is the probability that the first person draws the ACE OF PICKS, the
second the KING OF CARO, the third a KING and the fourth an AZ.

Resp.:

Sea A: an AZ OF PICKS goes out.

B: sale KING OF EXPENSIVE.
C: king sale.
D: sale AZ.

4
P(A) =
52
4
P(B/A) =
51
3
P(C/(B/A)) =
50
3
P(D/(C/(B/A))) =
49

P(A∩ B∩ C∩ D) = P(A) P(B|A) P(C|B/A) P(D|C/(B/A))

4 4 3 3 144
= • • • = = 0.000022162
52 51 50 49 6,497,400

A farmer has a mixture of corn seeds that includes: 60%

30% type A, 30% type B, and 10% type C. Suppose that the probability of
that an ear of corn weighs more than 100 grams is 0.75 for type A, 0.5 for type B
and 0.25 for type C. Given that an ear was harvested with no more than 100
grs., what is the probability that it is type C.

Resp.:

It is: type A corn ear.

B: type B ear of corn.
C: type C corn.
The ear of corn weighs more than 100 grams.

P(A) = 0.6
P(B) = 0,3
P(C) = 0.1

P(M/A) = 0.75
P(M/B) = 0.5
P(M/C) = 0.25

P(M) = P(M/A)P(A) + P(M/B)P(B) + P(M/C)P(C)

= 0.75 · 0.6 + 0.5 · 0.3 + 0.25 · 0.1 = 0.45 + 0.15 + 0.025 = 0.625

P(Mc= 1 - P(M) = 1 - 0.625 = 0.375

0.75•0.1
P(C/Mc) = = 0.2
0.375

38) The table shows the probability that a computing system

Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

a) Calculate the expected number of times per week that the system is down
working.
b) Calculate the variance of this probability distribution.

Resp.:

Number of times (X) 4 5 6 7 8 9

Probability P(X = x) 0.01 0.08 0,29 0.42 0.14 0.06
Weighted value (X · P(X = x)) 0.04 0.40 1.74 2.94 1.12 0.54
Weighted value (X2P(X = x) 0.16 2,00 10,44 20,58 8,96 4,86

a) E(X) = 6,78
b) V(X) = E(X2) - E(X)247.00 - (6.78)21.03

39) Previous studies have determined that the arrival of customers

at a restaurant, during randomly chosen intervals of 10 minutes, follows the
probability distribution presented in the table.

Number of clients (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5

Probability P(X = x) 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10 0.05

a) Calculate the expected number of arrivals for 10-minute intervals.

b) Calculate the variance of the arrivals.

Resp.:

Number of customers (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5

Probability P(X = x) 0.15 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10 0.05
Weighted value (X · P(X = x)) 0 0.25 0.50 0.60 0.40 0.25
Weighted value (X2P(X = x) 0 0.25 1.00 1.80 1.60 1.25

a) E(X) = 2,00
b) V(X) = E(X2) - E(X)2= 5,90 - (2,00)21.90

40) Suppose that the random variable X represents the number of heads and the variable
random and corresponds to the number of heads minus the number of tails,
when 3 coins are tossed. Find:

a) E(X)
b) E(Y)

Resp.:

Sea X: number of faces.

Y: number of faces minus stamps.

Ω = {(CCC), (CCS), (SCC), (CSC), (CSS), (SSC), (SCS), (SSS)}

X/Y -3 -1 1 3 TOTAL
0 1/8 0 0 0 1/8
1 0 3/8 0 0 3/8
2 0 0 3/8 0 3/8
3 0 0 0 1/8 1/8
TOTAL 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8 1
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41) In a certain series of shots, the probability of hitting the target is

0.6. Once the first impact on the target is produced, the...
shots, and also it is not possible to make more than 4 shots. Determine the
expected number of shots fired.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of shots fired.

B: hits the target.
F: doesn't hit the mark.

Ω = {B,FB,FFB,FFFB,FFFF}

Rx= {1,2,3,4}
P(X=1) = 0,6
P(X = 2) = 0.4 · 0.6 = 0.24
P(X = 3) = 0,4 · 0,4 · 0,6 = 0,096
P(X = 4) = 0.4 · 0.4 · 0.4 · 0.6 + 0.4 · 0.4 · 0.4 · 0.4 = 0.0385 + 0.0256 = 0.064

4
E(X) = x∑ip(xI )
i=1
= 1 · 0.6 + 2 · 0.24 + 3 · 0.096 + 4 · 0.064
= 0.6 + 0.48 + 0.288 + 0.256
1,624

42) Suppose that 2 coins are flipped and their possible outcomes are recorded. They
define the random variable X: number of heads obtained when tossing 2 coins.

a) Find the sample space associated with the random variable X.

b) Find the range of random variable X and its respective probabilities.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of heads obtained when tossing 2 coins.

a) Ω {"CC":"CC","SC":"SC","CS":"CS","SS":"SS"}

b) Rx{0, 1, 2}

1 1 1
P(0) = •=
2 2 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
P(1) = •+ • = + = =
2 2 2 2 4 4 4 2
1 1 1
P(2) = •=
2 2 4

Every week a person buys drinks at a grocery store.

canned alcoholic beverages (A) or bottled (B). The type of drink is purchased
for 4 consecutive weeks and the purchase is recorded.

a) Determine the sample space.

b) If the purchase of the drink is alternated every week, it is said that there is a
change in preferences. Let X: amount of changes. Determine the value of
X for each elemental event. (For example, for BBBA, x = 1).
c) Suppose that for each purchase P(B) = 0.5 and the purchasing decisions in the
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

Sea X: Number of changes.

a) Ω = {AAAA, AAAB, AAAB, ABBB, BBBB, BAAA, BBAA, BBBA, ABAB, BABA}
b) 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
c) Rx{0, 1, 3}

4 4
1 1 2 1
P(0) = +1 =1 + = =
2 2 16 16 16 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 6 3
P(1) = + + + + + = =
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 8
1 1 2 1
P(2) = + = =
16 16 16 8

In a laboratory experiment, an animal dies or survives during the course

from a surgical intervention. The experiment is carried out first with 2
animals, if both survive, no additional tests are done; if one
animal survives if an additional animal is required to conduct the tests
adicionales del experimento; finalmente, si ambos animales mueren, a los 2 se
they are given additional tests.

a) Determine the sample space.

b) Suppose that the tests are independent and that the probability of surviving
In each trial, it is 2/3. Assign probabilities to the elementary events.

Resp.:

Sea X: Number of animals tested.

a)Ω ={PcPc, PcP, PP, PPc}

2 2 4 ⎛ 1 1⎞ = 4 1 1 1
b) P(0) = •= P(1) = 2⎜ • ⎟ P(2) = •=
3 3 9 ⎝ 3 3⎠ 9 3 3 9

An experiment consists of flipping a coin until 1 appears.

Face the 4 seals. Calculate the quantity function associated with the experiment.

Resp.:

Ω = {C,SC,SSC,SSSC,SSSS}
Rx{1,2,3,4}

1
P(X = 1) =
2
1 1 1
P(X = 2) = · =
2 2 4
1 1 1 1
P(X = 3) = · · =
2 2 2 8
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
P(X = 4) = · · · + · · · = =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 16 8

46) Suppose that 2 wines (A and B) of the same type are rated by 4
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

b) If we define the random variable X: number of tasters who prefer A,

find the amount function of X.

An inspector from a factory notes the shift (day or night) that he has.
highest production rate for each of the following 3 days. Write the
possible outcomes and for each one, note the number of days X in which the shift
At night it has a higher production rate (assuming that the rate of
Production for each shift is different.

A radio manufacturer receives a type of supplies in boxes that contain 100.

pieces each. The reception department uses the following rule of
inspection: 4 pieces from each box are tested, if none are defective then not
They continue to examine pieces of the box; otherwise, all are tested.
the remaining pieces. Determine the expected number of pieces examined by
box if each box contains exactly 10% defective pieces.

The national textile company wants to buy 10 machines of a certain type to

use them in a weaving process. Previously, the company had purchased
machines of this type from 2 different manufacturers. Based on these
experiences, the useful lives of the 2 brands of machines can be estimated
in the following way:

MACHINE A

Estimated lifespan Probability of

(hrs.) useful life
2,000 0.60
3.000 0.30
4,000 0.10

MACHINE B

Estimated lifespan Probability of

(hrs.) useful life
2.000 0.50
3.000 0.45
4,000 0.05

Which brand should the company buy if the cost of both machines is the same.

50) If the probability that a certain test gives a positive reaction is equal to 0.4.
What is the probability of having fewer than 5 negative reactions before?
from the first positive.

51) Suppose it is known that the response rate to telephone surveys is

of 10%. Assume that 20 phone consultations are made in the capacity of
market test in a specific geographical area. Assuming that it
apply the response rate of 10%, determine the probabilities of the
following events:

a) Nobody responds.
Exactly two people respond.
c) Most people respond.
At least 20% of the people respond.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

X ~ B(n,p)

n = 20
p = 0.1

a) P(X = 0) = 0,1216
P(X = 2) = 0.2852
c) P(X≥ 11) = 1 - P(X < 11) = 1 - P(X≤ 10) = 0
d) P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X < 4) = 1 - P(X ≤ 3) = 0.133

52) It can be considered that the Binomial formula is composed of two parts: one
combination formula that determines the number of different ways in the
what can occur is the designated event and the multiplication rule for
determine the probability of each sequence. Assume that they are chosen at random
three items from a process that is known to produce 10% of items
defective. Build a three-stage tree diagram that illustrates the
selection of the articles and use D to indicate that an article is selected
defective and D' to identify the selection of a non-defective item. Also
Note the appropriate probability values in the diagram and use the rule of
the multiplication for independent events in order to determine the
probability of each of the possible sequences of three occurring
events.

Resp.:
D D’
0.9 0.1
D D' D D’
0.81 0.09 0.09 0.01
D D’ D D' D D’ D D’
0,729 0,081 0,081 0,009 0.081 0.009 0.009 0.001

53) With the data from the previous example, determine the probability that one of the
three sampled items are defective, referring to the figure and
using addition for mutually exclusive events. Finally,
using the Binomial formula, determine the probability of obtaining
exactly a defective item.

Resp.:

Sea X: cantidad de artículos defectuosos.

Rx = {0,1,2,3}
X ~ B(n,p)

n=3
p = 0.1
P(X = 1) = 0.243

In a specific year, 70% of the shares that were traded on the Stock Exchange
Prices in Santiago increased, while the remaining 30%
remained unchanged or experienced a decrease in their price. To
At the beginning of the year, an investment advisor selected 10 of the stocks and rated them.
as "especially recommended". If the stocks of these 10 companies
they represent a random selection, what is the probability that:

All 10 stocks increase in value.

At least 6 of the stocks increase in value.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Rx{0,1,2,3,... 10}

X ~ B(n,p)
n = 10
p = 0.7

a) P(X = 10) = 0,0282

b) P(X ≥ 6) = 1 - P(X < 6) = 1 - P(X≤ 5) = 0.85
c) P(X≥ 8) = 1 - P(X < 8) = 1 - P(X≤ 7) = 0.383

55) If a coin is tossed five times, determine:

a) The probability distribution regarding the number of heads that occur.

b) The expected number of heads.
c) The variance of the probability distribution.

Note: Use the general formulas for discrete random variables and also
the special formulas for Binomial distributions.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of faces that occur when tossing the coin.

Rx{0,1,2,3,4,5}

a)
No. No.
Event p P(X=x)
Faces Ways
5
0 SSSSS 0.03125
C 5
0
0.5
5
1 SSSSC 0.15625
C 0.5
5
1
5
0 SSSCC 0.3125
C 0.5
5
2
5
0 SSCCC 0.03125
C 0.5
5
3
5
0 SCCCC 0.15625
C 0.5
5
4
5
0 CCCCC 0.03125
C 0.5
5
5
5
xI pi = 2.5
b) E(X) = ∑
i=1

2 2
c) V(X) = E(X ) - E(X)
= 7,5 - 6,25
= 1.25

2 5
E(X ) = ∑ xI2 pi= 7.5
I=1

Sea X: number of faces that occur when tossing the coin.

Rx{0,1,2,3,4,5}
X ~ B(n,p)

n=5
p = 0.5
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY – VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

c) V(X) = npq = 1.25

56) The students in a statistics class were asked what their

notes they expected to obtain in the course and whether or not they had tried to resolve
problems apart from those assigned by the teacher. The table collects the
corresponding proportions to each of the eight resulting groups:

PROBLEMS EXPECTED NOTE

ADDITIONAL Outstanding Notable Approved Suspense
Yes 0.12 ["0.06","0.12"] 0.02
No 0.13 0.21 0.26 0.08

a) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student has tried to

solve additional problems.
b) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected student expects a grade.
outstanding.
c) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student, who has
additional problems completed, expect an outstanding grade.
d) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student who is waiting for a
outstanding, has completed additional problems.
e) Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen student, who has attempted
to solve additional problems, expect a remarkable.
f) They are the events 'has caused additional problems' and 'expects a notable'
statistically independent.

There is a 90% probability that a specific component will behave in

proper form under high temperature conditions. If the device in which it
use the component has a total of four of them, determine the probability of
each of the events:

a) All components behave properly, and therefore, the

the apartment works well.
b) The device does not work well because one of the four is exactly failing.
components.
The device does not work because one or more components are faulty.

Resp.:

Sea X: amount of components that behave properly.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=4
p = 0.9

Rx{0,1,2,3,4}

4 4 4-4 4 4 0
a) P(X = 4) =C 4 0.9 0.1 = C 4 0.9 0.1 0.6561
3 4-3 4 3 1
b) P(X = 3) =C 34 0.9 0.1 = C 3 0.9 0.1 0.2916
c) P(X≤ 3) = 0.3439

58) Suppose that 40% of the employees of a large company are in favor of
to have union representation and that a random sample of 10 is interviewed
from them, and they are asked for an anonymous response. What is the probability of:
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

Sea X: number of employees who are in favor of union representation.

X ~ B(n,p)

n = 10
p = 0.4

Rx= {0,1,2,3,... 10}

a) P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X≤ 5) = 0.1663

b) P(X < 5) = P(X≤ 4) = 0.6330

59) A machine produces a certain type of parts of which an average of 5%

are defective. In a random sample of 5 pieces:

a) What is the probability of obtaining exactly one defective piece.

b) What is the probability of obtaining at least one defective piece.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of defective pieces.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=5
p = 0.05

Rx{0,1,2,3,4,5}

5 1 5-1 5 1 4
a) P(X = 1) =C 1 0.05 0.95 = C 1 0.05 0.95 0.2036
b) P(X≥ 1) = 1 - P(X≤ 0) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - 0.7738 = 0.2262

Two-thirds of the registered voters in a certain electoral district support the

Match A. What is the probability that in a random sample of 6 voters
From that district, exactly 5 support A.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of voters who support party A.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=6
p = 0.6

Rx= {0,1,2,3,4,5,6}

5 6-5 6 5 1
P(X = 5) = C 56 0.6 0.4 = C 5 0.6 0.4 0.2634

It is known that 60% of the university students are smokers. In a

random sample of 4 students from this university, what is the probability of
what:
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

Sea X: number of smoking students.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=4
p = 0,6

Rx{0,1,2,3,4}

4 2 4-2 4 2 2
a) P(X = 2) =C 2 0.6 0.4 = C 2 0.6 0.4 0.3456
b) P(2 first F) = 0.6 · 0.6 · 0.4 · 0.4 = 0.0576

A seed distributor has determined, based on numerous trials, that

5% of a group of seeds do not germinate. Sell the seeds in packs of
25, guaranteeing an 85% germination rate. What is the probability that a
the package does not meet the warranty.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of seeds that do not germinate.

X ~ B(n,p)

n = 25
p = 0.05

Rx{0,1,2,3,...,25}

P(X≥ 3) = 1 - P(X≤ 2) = 1 - 0,873 = 0,127

63) To study whether or not to file a constitutional accusation against the members
from a room of the Supreme Court is formed, randomly, in the Chamber of Deputies,
a commission of 5 of those legislators. The commission must be elected from among
70 Government Deputies, all of whom are about to vote in favor of the
accusation and 50 opposition Deputies, who are in the opposing position.

a) What is the probability that the commission decides that it is not applicable
constitutional accusation.
b) What is the expected number of opposition Deputies in the committee.

Resp.:

a) Sea NC: it is voted that the constitutional accusation does not correspond.

70 50 70 50 70 50

P(NC) =
#NC
= C C C+ C C C+
0 5 1 4 2 3
=
65,552,760
0.3439
#W C
120
190.578.024
5

b) Sea X: number of opposition Deputies.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=5
p = 0.416
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

64) The records of a certain clinic show that 32% of all

patients admitted do not pay their bills and eventually it is forgiven
debted. Suppose that n = 8 patients represent a random selection of
a very large group of patients treated at the clinic. Determine the
following probabilities, referring to the 8 selected patients:

a) That all that is owed must be forgiven.

b) That the debt owed by a single patient be forgiven.
c) That no debts owed to any of them have to be forgiven.

Resp.:

a) Sea X: number of patients whose debt needs to be waived.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=8
p = 0.32

Rx= {0,1,2,3, ... 8}

8 8 8-8 8 8 0
a) P(X = 8) =C 8 0.32 0.68 = C 8 0.32 0.68 0.00011
8 1 8-1 8 7
b) P(X = 1) =C 1 0.32 0.68 = C 1 0,32 · 0,68 0.1721
8 0 8-0 8 8
c) P(X = 0) = C 0 0.32 0.68 = C 0 0.32 0.68 0.0457

65) A manufacturer of certain computer parts guarantees that a box of his

boxes contain at most 2 defective pieces. If the box contains 20
defective parts and experience has shown that their process of
Manufacturing produces 15% defective parts, what is the probability that
the box meets the warranty.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of parts that fail.

X ~ B(n,p)

n = 20
p = 0.15

Rx{0,1,2,3,... 20}

P(X≤ 2) = P(X =0) + P(X = 1) + P(X =2) = 0.0038 + 0.1367 + 0.2293 = 0.404896

A car manufacturer sells 15 identical vehicles on the same day, knowing that
the probability that this type of vehicle is functioning correctly
after 2 years it is 0.8. Calculate the probability that after 2 years:

Exactly 3 are out of service.

At most 3 should be functioning.

Response:

Sea X: number of cars that after 2 years are functioning.

Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Rx{0, 1, 2, 3, ... 15}

15 12 15 - 12 15 12 3
C12 0.8 0.2
a) P(X = 12) = = C 12 0.8 0.2 0.2501
b) P(X ≤ 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
= 3.27 · 10-11 + 1.96 · 10-9+ 5.5 · 10-8+ 9.54 · 10-7≈ 0

67) A certain machine fails with a constant probability of 0.01 in any of the 3
shifts of any given day. Obtain Px(x) where X is the random variable that
count the number of failures in a day. Consider the fact that when the
machine malfunction some shift will remain out of service for the time
remaining of the shift.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of failures in a day.

X ~ B(n,p)

n=3
p = 0.01

Rx= {0,1,2,3}

3 x 3-x
P(x)
x =C x 0.01 0.99

68) See U v.a., U∼ B(3,1/2). Determine yes:

A and C are independent.

b) B and C are independent.

Where:

A = (U≤ 4)
B = (U = 1)
C = (0 < U≤ 2)

Resp.:

a) P(A) = P(U≤ 4) = 1

P(C) = P(0 < U≤ 2)

= P(U≤ 2) - P(U < 0) = P(U≤ 2) - P(U≤ 0) = 0,875 - 0,125 = 0,75

P(A∩ C) = P(0 < U≤ 2) = 0.75

∴ P(A) P(C) = P(A∩ C) ⇒ A and C are independent.

b) P(B) = P(U = 1) = 0.375

P(C) = 0,75

P(B∩ C) = P(U = 1) = 0.375

∴ P(B) P(C)≠ P(B∩ C) ⇒ B and C are not independent.

Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

selection of the three people in terms of whether each of them has

previous experience And they do not have it in that class of studies. Also, note the
corresponding probability values in the diagram and use the rule of the
multiplication for dependent events in order to determine the
probability of one of the possible sequences of three events occurring.

Response:

E It is
0.4 0.6
E It is E It is
0.16 0.24 0.24 0.36
E It is E It is E It is E It is
0,064 0,096 0,096 0,144 0,096 0,144 0,144 0.216

70) With reference to the previous problem, determine the probability that
exactly two of the three employees have had previous experience,
using the formula to determine Hypergeometric probabilities.

Resp.:

Sea X: cantidad de empleados que han tenido experiencia previa.

Rx{0,1,2,3}

X ~ H(N,n,A)

N = 10
n=3
A=4

P(X = 2) = 0,3

71) In a greenhouse, there are 10 pots, of which 3 have beans.

remaining lentils. 5 planters are randomly selected and it is expected that the plants will sprout.

a) Find the probability function of the random variable number of flowerpots

with beans in the sample.
b) Calculate the probability that there are 2 pots with beans.
c) Calculate the probability that there are at most 2 pots with lentils.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of pots with beans.

Rx= {0,1,2,3}

X ~ H(N,n,A)

N = 10
n=5
A=3

21 105
a) P(X = 0) = P(X = 1) =
252 252
105 21
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

c) P(X ≤ P(X = 2) = 0.083

In 20 cups of coffee, 15 have been prepared with coffee and 5 with coffee.
instant. After tasting the 20 cups, the taster selects 5 that he
think they are made with instant coffee. What is the probability that the
selection was random if exactly 3 of the 5 cups were coffee
instantaneous.

Resp.:

Sea X: cantidad de tazas con café instantáneo.

Rx{0,1,2,3,4,5}

X ~ H(N,n,A)

N = 20
n=5
A=5

P(X = 3) = 0,067

In a class of 20 students, 15 are dissatisfied with the text.

that is used. If you were to ask a random sample of 4 about the text
students, determine the probability that:

Exactly 3 are dissatisfied with the text.

b) When at least 3 of them are dissatisfied with the text.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of students who are dissatisfied with the text.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,4}

X ~ H(N,n,A)

N = 20
n=4
A = 15

a) P(X = 3) = 0,4696

b) P(X≥ 3) = 1 - P(X≤ 2) = 1 - 0.249 = 0.751

A departmental team includes five engineers and nine technicians. If it

five people are randomly chosen and assigned to a project, what is the
probability that the project team includes exactly two
engineers.

Resp.

Sea X: number of engineers that make up the team.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,4,5}
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(X = 2) = 0,4196

75) A shipment of 10 machines includes one defective. If 7 machines are chosen

at random from that shipment what is the probability that none of the 7 is
defective.

Sea X: cantidad de máquinas defectuosas.

Rx{0,1}

X ~ H(N,n,A)

N = 10
n=7
A=1
P(X = 0) = 0,3

On average, every hour 5 people make transactions at the counter.

special services of a bank. Assuming the arrival of those people
it has an independent and equally probable distribution throughout the period
of interest, what is the probability that more than 10 people want to carry out
transactions at the special services counter of the bank in one hour
specific.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of people who perform transactions at the counter each hour.
X ~ P(λ)

λ 5 people per hour.

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

P(X > 10) = 1 - P(X≤ 10) = 1 - 0.986 = 0.014

77) A boat arrives at a certain dock every 2 days on average, what is the
probability that 2 or more ships arrive on a randomly selected day.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of boats that arrive at the dock each day.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 0.5 boats per day.

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

P(X≥ 2) = 1 - P(X≤ 1) = 1 - 0,91 = 0,09

On average, each 500-meter roll of rolled steel has 2 defects.

A defect is a scratch or some other irregularity that would affect the use of that.
segment of the steel sheet of the finished product. What is the probability of
that a specific segment of 100 meters has no defects.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

λ 2 defects per roll.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

Sea Y: cantidad de defectos por rollo de 100 Mts.

Y ~ P(λ`)

λ2/5 defects per 100 meters.

P(Y = 0) = 0,6703

The capture of 1,000 lobster traps was 1,200 lobsters. We assume

There is independence and randomness in the capture.

a) Cuál es la probabilidad de que la trampa no contenga langostas.

b) What is the number of traps that contain 2 or more lobsters.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of lobsters per trap.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 1.2 lobsters per trap.

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

a) P(X = 0) = 0,3012

b) P(Y≥ 2) = 1 - P(X≤ 1) = 0.337

A book has 400 pages and it is estimated to have 400 typographical errors.
randomly distributed.

a) What is the number of pages without errors.

b) What is the number of pages with exactly 1 error.
c) What is the probability of finding more than 3 errors per page.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of errors per page.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 1 error per page.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

a) P(X = 0) = 0,37 ⇒ 0.37 · 400 = 148 pages

b) P(X = 1) = 0,37 ⇒ 0.37 · 400 = 148 pages
c) P(X > 3) = 1 - P(X≤ 3) = 0.019

It is known that in a certain computer the number of parts that fail in 1 hour
can be considered as a Poisson distributed random variable with
parameter 0.1. A computational process requiring 20 hours is initiated.
computer. What is the probability that the process can be completed if the
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

X ~ P(λ)
λ 0.1 pieces per hour.

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

Y: number of computer parts that fail in 20 hours.

Y ~ P(λ`)

λ = 0.1• 20 = 2 pieces every 20 hours.

P(Y < 30) = P(Y≤ 29) = 1

For years, the average number of homicides in a densely populated city

the population is 2 per day. Determine the probability that in one day
determined there is

No more than 3 homicides.

b) Exactly 3 homicides.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of homicides in the city each day.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 2 homicides per day.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

a) P(X≤ 3) = 0.857

b) P(X = 3) = 0.1804

Every 10 years in Chile, there are 0.5 earthquakes of considerable magnitude.

Estimate the likelihood that no earthquakes will occur in the next 3 years.
consideration in our territory.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of earthquakes in Chile every 10 years.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 0.5 earthquakes every 10 years.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

Sea Y: number of earthquakes in Chile every 3 years.

Y ~ P(λ`)

λ= 0.5/10• 3 = 0.15 earthquakes every 3 years.

P(Y= 0) = 0.8607
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY – VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

Sea X: number of fires that occur per month.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 1.5 fires per month.

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

Y sea: number of fires that occur every 2 months.

Y ~ P(λ`)

λ= 1.5• 2 = 3 fires every 2 months.

P(Y = 1) = 0,1493

The switchboard of a large hotel receives an average of 10 calls.

telephone calls per minute. Determine the probability that exactly 4 arrive
calls within a span of 30 seconds.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of phone calls received every 1 minute.

X ~ P(λ)
λ 10 calls per minute.
Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

Sea Y: number of phone calls received every 30 seconds.

Y ~ P(λ`)

λ= 10/2 = 5 calls every 30 seconds.

P(X= 4) = 0.1755

It is found that only 1 generator out of every 1,000 is defective, after

being assembled in a manufacturing plant. The defective generators
they are distributed randomly throughout the production run.

What is the probability that in a shipment of 500 generators there are none?
no faulty generator.
b) What is the probability that a shipment of 100 generators includes, when
less, 1 defective generator.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of defective generators in the shipment.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 1 defective for every thousand.

Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

b)λ0.1 defective per 100

P(X≥ 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) 1 - 0,9048 = 0,0952

It is known that service requests arrive randomly and in the form of

stationary process at an average of 5 requests per hour. What is the
probability that more than 50 service requests will be received during a
8-hour shift.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of requests received.

X ~ P(λ)
λ 5 requests per hour.

Rx={0,1,2,3,...∞)
λ40 requests every 8 hours

X − λ`
Asλ' → ∞ ⇒ X ~ N(λ', λ') ⇒ Z = ~ N(0,1)
λ`

P(X> 50) = 1 - P(X < 50.5)

⎛ X − np 50.5− 40 ⎞
= 1 - P⎜ ≤ ⎟
⎜ npq 40 ⎟
⎝ ⎠
= 1 - P(Z≤ 1.66
1 - 0.9515
0.0485

88) A long-suffering motorist knows that the average number of potholes per block in his
the city is 7.2; find the probability that in a quarter of a block
randomly selected, find:

Exactly 4 potholes.
At most 4 potholes.
At least 4 potholes.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of potholes per block.

X ~ P(λ)

λ 7.2 batches per block.

Rx= {0,1,2,3,...∞)

Sea Y: number of potholes per block quarter.

Y ~ P(λ`) λ1.8 baches per every quarter block.

a) P(Y = 4) = 0,072

b) P(Y≤ 4) = P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) + P(Y=3) + P(Y=4)

Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

= 1 -[ P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) + P(Y=3)]

= 1 - 0,891
0.109

89) Suppose X is uniformly distributed in[-α,α] whereα Each time

that it is possible to determineα in such a way that it satisfies the following:

1
a) P(X > 1) =
3
1
b) P(X > 1) =
2
c) P(X < 0.5) = 0.7
d) P(X > 0.5) = 0.3

Resp.:

1
a) P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X < 1) =
3
2 1+ α 2
P(X < 1) = ⇒ =
3 α+α 3
1+ α 2
⇒ =
2α 3
⇒ 3 + 3α equals 4α
⇒ α=3

1
b) P(X > 1) = 1 - P(X < 1) =
2
1 1+ α 1
P(X < 1) = ⇒ =
2 α+α 2
1+ α 1
⇒ =
2α 2
⇒ 2 + 2α = 2α
⇒ α=∅

0.5+ α
c) P(X < 0.5) = 0.7⇒ = 0.7
α+α
0.5+ α
⇒ = 0.7
2α
⇒ 0.5 +α = 1.4α
⇒ 0.4α 0.5
⇒ α 0.2

d) P(X > 0.5) = 1 - P(X < 0.5) = 0.3

P(X < 0.5) = 0.7
α = 0.2

A soda machine is set to dispense an average ofμ ml.

per glass. If the amount poured by machine is normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 15 ml. and glasses that hold approximately
236.4 ml

a) What is the value ofμ If it is known that 97.5% of the glasses that are filled do not
they spill.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY – VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

a) Sea X: amount of soda poured by the machine.

2
X ~ N(μ;σ )
σ = 15

P(X < 236.4) = 0.975

⎛ X − μ 236.4− μ ⎞
P⎜ < ⎟ 0.975
⎝ σ 15 ⎠
P ⎛⎜ Z< ⎞
236.4− μ 236.4− μ
⎟ 0.975 ⇒ = 1.96
⎝ 15 ⎠ 15
236.4μ 1.96• 15
μ = 236,4 - 29,4
μ = 207

b) P(207 < X < 231) = P(X < 231) - P(X < 207)
⎛ X − μ 231− 207 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 207− 207 ⎞
= P⎜ < ⎟ P ⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 15 ⎠ ⎝ σ 15 ⎠
= P(Z < 1.6) - P(Z < 0)
= 0,9452 - 0,5
0.4452

c) P(X > 243) = 1 - P(X < 243)

⎛ X − μ 243− 207 ⎞
= 1 - P⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 15 ⎠
= 1 - P(Z < 2.4)
= 1 - 0,991
0.0082 ⇒ 1000• 0.0082 = 8.2 glasses.

91) Find the area under the normal curve in each of the following cases:

a) Between 0 and 1.2.

Between -0.68 and 0.
Between -0.46 and 2.21.
Between 0.81 and 1.94.
e) To the left of -0.6.
f) To the right of -1.28.
g) To the right of 2.05 and to the left of -1.44.

Resp.:

a) P(0 < Z < 1.2) = P(Z < 1.2) - P(Z < 0)

0.8849 - 0.5
0.3849

b) P(-0.68 < Z < 0) = P(Z < 0) - P(Z < -0.68)

= 0,5 - 0,2483
0.2517

c) P(-0.46 < Z < 2.21) = P(Z < 2.21) - P(Z < -0.46)
= 0,9864 - 0,3228
0.6636
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(Z < -0.6) = 0.2743

f) P(Z > -1.28) = 1 - P(Z < -1.28)
1 - 0.1003
= 0.8997

g) P(Z > 2.05) + P(Z < -1.44) = 1 - P(Z < 2.05) + P(Z < -1.44)
= 1 - 0,9798 + 0,0749
0.0951

92) Determine the value or values of Z in each of the following cases,

where the given area refers to a normal curve.

a) P(0 < Z < z) = 0.377

b) P(Z < z) = 0.8621
c) P(-1.5 < Z < z) = 0.0217

Resp.:

a) P(Z < z) - P(Z < 0) = 0.377

P(Z < z) - 0.5 = 0.377
P(Z < z) = 0.877 ⇒ z = 1,16

b) P(Z < z) = 0.8621 ⇒ z = 1.09

c) P(-1.5 < Z < z) = 0.0217

P(Z < z) - P(Z < -1.5) = 0.0217
P(Z < z) - 0.0668 = 0.0217
P(Z < z) = 0.0885 ⇒ z = -1.35

93) A procedure has been established for a certain plant to germinate.

so that it takes an average of 13 days. It is also known that there is a
variability of 0.1 days and a Normal distribution of the days is assumed
It takes time to germinate. Determine:

P(13 < X < 13.2)

b) P(X > 13.25)
c) P(12.9 < X < 13.1)
d) P(12.8 < X < 13.1)
e) P(13.1 < X < 13.2)

Resp.:

⎛ X − μ 13.2−13 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 13−13 ⎞
a) P ⎜ < ⎟ - P⎜ < ⎟ = P(Z < 2) - P(Z < 0)
⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠ ⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠
0.9772 - 0.5
0.4772

⎛ X − μ 13.25−13 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 13.25−13 ⎞
b) P ⎜ > ⎟ = 1 - P⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠ ⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠
= 1 - P(Z < 2.5)
= 1 - 0,9938
0.0062

⎛ X − μ 13.1−13 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 12.9−13 ⎞
c) P ⎜ < ⎟P ⎜ < ⎟ = P(Z < 1) - P(Z < -1)
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

⎛ X − μ 13.1−13 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 12.8−13 ⎞
P ⎜ < ⎟ - P⎜ < ⎟ = P(Z < 1) - P(Z < -2)
⎝ σ 0,1 ⎠ ⎝ σ 0,1 ⎠
= 0,8413 - 0,0228
0.8185

⎛ X − μ 13.2−13 ⎞ ⎛ X − μ 13.1−13 ⎞
e) P ⎜ < ⎟P ⎜ < ⎟ = P(Z < 2) - P(Z < 1)
⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠ ⎝ σ 0.1 ⎠
= 0,9772 - 0,8413
0.1359

The time it takes for a certain sedative to take effect in animals

Child rearing is normally distributed with a mean of 45 minutes and standard deviation
standard 8 minutes. A specialist assures that in 1 hour the animal will be
asleep.

a) What is the probability that the specialist is wrong.

b) What time is required for there to be a 75% probability that the
the sedative effect manifests after that time.
c) What time is required to have only a 30% probability that
the sedative effect manifests within that time frame.

Resp.:

a) P(X > 60) = 1 - P(X < 60)

⎛ X − μ 60− 45 ⎞
= 1 - P⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 8 ⎠
= 1 - P(Z < 1.87)
1 - 0.9696
= 0,0304

b) P(Z < z) = 0.75

⎛ X − μ z− 45 ⎞
P⎜ < ⎟ = 0.75
⎝ σ 8 ⎠
z− 45
0.67 ⇒ z = (0.67• 8) + 45 = 50.36 minutes.
8

c) P(Z < z) = 0.3

⎛ X − μ z− 45 ⎞
P⎜ < ⎟ 0.3
⎝ σ 8 ⎠
z− 45
-0.52 ⇒ z = (-0.52• 8) + 45 = 40.84 minutes.
8

95) If the random variable X ~ N(6;25), determine c such that P(X≤ c) = 2 P(X > c).

Resp.:

P(X≤ c) = 2 P(X > c)

⎛ X − μ c− 6 ⎞ ⎛ ⎛ X − μ c− 6⎞ ⎞
P⎜ < ⎟ 2⎜1-P
⎜ ⎜ < ⎟⎟
⎝ σ 5 ⎠ ⎝ ⎝ σ 5 ⎠ ⎟⎠
⎛ c − 6⎞ ⎛ ⎛ c− 6⎞⎞
P⎜ Z < ⎟ =2⎜1-
⎜ PZ< ⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ 5 ⎠ ⎝ ⎝ 5 ⎠ ⎟⎠
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

⎛ c− 6 ⎞ 2 c− 6
P⎜ Z < ⎟ = ⇒ = 0.43
⎝ 5 ⎠ 3 5
c = (0,43• 5) + 6
c = 8,15

The time taken to go from a hotel to the airport via route A has a
distribution N(27,25); while the distribution of time on route B is
N(30,4). What route is advisable to use if one has:

30 minutes.
34 minutes.
c) 50 minutes.
d) 1 hour.

Resp.:

⎛ X − μ 30− 27 ⎞
a) P(X < 30) = ⎜ P < ⎟
⎝ σ 5 ⎠
= P(Z < 0.6)
0.25

⎛ X − μ 30− 30 ⎞
P(X < 30) = P ⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 2 ⎠
= P(Z < 0)
= 0.5 *

⎛ X − μ 34− 27 ⎞
b) P(X < 34) = ⎜ P < ⎟
⎝ σ 5 ⎠
P(Z < 1.4)
0.9192

⎛ X − μ 34− 30 ⎞
P(X < 34) = P ⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 2 ⎠
= P(Z < 2)
= 0.9772 *
⎛ X − μ 50− 27 ⎞
c) P(X < 50) =⎜ P < ⎟
⎝ σ 5 ⎠
P(Z < 4.6)
=1

⎛ X − μ 50− 30 ⎞
P(X < 50) = P ⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 2 ⎠
= P(Z < 10)
=1

⎛ X − μ 60− 27 ⎞
d) P(X < 60) = ⎜ P < ⎟
⎝ σ 5 ⎠
= P(Z < 6.6)
=1

⎛ X − μ 60− 30 ⎞
P(X < 60) = P ⎜ < ⎟
⎝ σ 2 ⎠
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

Resp.:

E(Y) = E(2X + 1)
= E(2X) + E(1)
= 2E(X) + 1
= 2E(X) + 1
= 2(0) + 1
=1

V(Y) = V(2X + 1)
= V(2X) + V(1)
= 4V(X) + 0
= 4V(X)
= 4(1)
=4

The school inspector reviews the class books to ensure that everyone
stay up to date on the signing of the professors' attendance and knows about
previous experiences where a teacher forgets to sign the book 70% of the time
times.

a) What is the probability that I have to review 5 books to find the first one?
unsigned book.
b) What is the probability that I need to review at least 6 books to find
the third unsigned.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of books to review before finding the first one without a signature.

X ~ G(p) p = 0.7

Rx{0,1,2,3,...}∞)

a) P(X = 5) = pqx - 1
= 0.7(0.3)5 - 1
0.7 · 0.34
0.00567

b) Sea X: number of books to review before finding the third one without a signature.

X ~ Bn(r;p) r = 3 p = 0.7

Rx={3,4,5,...∞)

P(X≥ 6) = 1 - P(X≤ 5)
= 1 -[P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)]
= 1 - [0,343 + 0,3087 + 0,18522]
1 - 0.83692
0.16308

99) In order to control a batch of manufactured units, for a certain

agricultural machinery, units are randomly selected until they
find a defective one. The cost of control is $300 per unit. The
the proportion of defective units is assumed to be equal to 0.05. Determine the
average cost.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

X ~ G(p) p = 0.05

Rx{0,1,2,3,...∞)

1
E(X) =
p
1
=
0.05
= 20

E(Cost) = E(X) · 300

= 20 · 300
6,000.

100) 1 card is drawn from a deck of cards. Let A: the drawn card is an ACE and
B: the drawn card is a KING. How many ways can it happen that a
The owl is a KING.

Resp.:

A: it happens in 4 ways.
It happens in 4 ways.
A or B: occurs in 4 + 4 = 8 ways.

101) A randomly dialed phone number consists of 5 digits.

a) What is the probability that all the digits are different in it?
b) What is the probability that all the digits in it are odd.

Resp.:

a) Set A: all the numbers are different.

n(A) = 10 • 9 • 8 • 7 • 6 = 30,240
5
n(Ω) = 10 = 100,000

30.240
P(A) = = 0.3024
100,000

b) Set B: all the numbers are odd.

5
n(B) = 5 = 3.125

3.125
P(B) = 0.03125
100,000

A person can return from their work to their home via path A or via the
Path B; depending on your mood, choose one route or another. The experience
indicates that it uses path A one third of the time. If it uses the path
A arrives home before 6 PM 75% of the time. If he uses the
Route B, arrives home before 6 PM 70% of the time. If one day
Anyone arrives home after 6 PM, what is the probability of
that I have chosen the path B.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

1 2
P(A) = P(B) =
3 3

P(18cA) = 1 - P(18/A) = 1 - 0.75 = 0.25

P(18cB) = 1 - P(18/B) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3
P(18c) = P(18c/A)P(A) + P(18c/B)P(B)
1 2
= 0.25 · + 0.3 · = 0.28
3 3
P(18c/B)P(B) 0.3•0.6 0.18
P(B/18c) = = = = 0.7
P(18 )
c
0.28 0.28

103) Sean A and B two events defined inΩ such that:

7 c 5 1
P(A∪ B) = P(A ) = P(A∩ B) =
8 8 4

to find

a) P(A)
b) P(B)
c
c) P(A∩ B )
c c
d) P(A ∪ B )
c c
e) P(A ∩ B )
c
f) P(A∪ B )

Resp.:

5 3
a) P(A) = 1 - P(A)c = 1 - =
8 8
7 3 2 3
b) P(B) = P(A∪ B) - P(A) + P(A∩ B) = - + =
8 8 8 4
c 3 2 1
c) P(A∩ B ) = P(A) - P(A∩ B) = - =
8 8 8
c c c c c c c c
d) P(A ∪ B ) = P(A ) + P(B ) - P(A ∩ B ) = P(A ) + P(B ) - (1 - P(A∪ B))
5 2 7 7 1 3
= + 1( )= - =
8 8 8 8 8 4
c c c 7 1
e) P(A ∩ B ) = P(A∪ B) = 1 - P(A∪ B) = 1 - =
8 8
c c c 3 2 1 1
f) P(A∪ B ) = P(A) + P(B ) - P(A∩ B ) = + - =
8 8 8 2

104) Two cards are drawn successively from a deck of cards, what is the
probability that the first is an ACE and the second is a KING.

Resp.:

Sea A: the first letter is AZ.

B: the second card is KING.
4 4 16
P(A∩ B) = P(A) P(B|A) = • =
52 51 2.652

In a certain university, 25% of young men and 10% of young women are
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

b) If the student is from science, what is the probability that the student is
woman.

Resp.:

Sea A: the student is from science.

the student is a woman.

P(B) = 0,6
c
P(A|B) = 0.1 P(A/B = 0.25
c c c
a) P(A) = P(A∩ B) + P(A∩ B ) = P(A/B) P(B) + P(A/B ) P(B )
0.1 • 0.6 + 0.25 • 0.4 = 0.16
P(A∩ B) 0.06
b) P(B/A) = = 0.375
P(A) 0.16

106) There are 2 drawers, 1 and 2, each with 2 boxes. In drawer 1 there is 1 coin.
gold and 1 silver in each box and in drawer 2 there is 1 gold coin in
each box. A drawer is randomly selected, and from this one of the boxes, the coin
found turns out to be gold. What is the probability that the coin
comes from drawer 2.

Resp.:

O: the coin found is gold.

B1the coin is from drawer 1.
B2the coin is from drawer 2.

P(O) = P(O/B1) P(B1) + P(O/B2) P(B10.5 * 0.5 + 1 * 0.5 = 0.75

P(O/B2)P(B2) 1.0,5
P(B2/O) = = 0.6667
P(O) 0.75

107) Batteries of a certain brand are packaged in boxes containing 8 batteries each. In the
On the store counter, there are 10 such boxes, 9 of which contain 4 batteries.
good and 4 defective each and the remaining 5 good and 3 defective.
A box is randomly chosen and 2 batteries are extracted from it.

a) What is the probability that both are good.

b) If both are good, what is the probability that they come from the box with 5?
good and 3 defective.

Resp.:

Both batteries are good.

B: they come from the box with 5 good ones and 3 defective ones.

1 9
P(B) = P(B)c =
10 10
5 3
10
P(A/B) = C2 C
8
0
=
C2 28
4 4
c C 2 C0 6
P(A|B ) = =
C2
8
28
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

10 ·1
P(A|B)P(B) 28 10 = 10 0.15625
b) P(B/A) = =
P(A) 64 64
280

It is known that when A and B play chess, A wins half of the time.
A third of the time B wins and a sixth of the time they end in a tie.
They agree to play a tournament of three matches.

a) Find the sample space associated with this example.

b) Find the probability that two of the matches end in a tie.

109) Suppose that 2 products A and B are rated by 4 consumers who

they express a preference for A or for B. For example, if the first and the third
consumers prefer A and the other two prefer B: ABAB. Find the
sample space associated with the experiment.

a) Find the sample space associated with the experiment.

b) If X: number of people who prefer A, find the distribution function of X.

Each week a person buys at a grocery store any of

the following two types of non-alcoholic beverages: canned (A) or
bottled (B). The type of drink is purchased over 4 consecutive weeks and
the purchase is registered.

a) Determine the sample space.

b) If in each week the purchase of the drink is alternated, it is said that there is a
change in preferences. Let X: number of changes. Determine the value of X for
each elemental event. (For example, for BBBA, X = 1).
c) Suppose that for each purchase P(B) = 0.5, and the purchasing decisions in the
different weeks are independent. Find the quantity function of the
v.a. X.

An animal dies or survives during a surgical experiment.

The experiment is first conducted with 2 animals. If both survive,
No additional tests are performed. If an animal survives, it is required to
one more animal to apply the experiment. If both die, both of them will be
they do the additional tests.

a) Determine the sample space.

b) Suppose that the tests are independent and that the probability of survival
In each test it is 2/3. Assign probabilities to the elementary events.
c) Sea X: number of survivors. Obtain the probability distribution of X.

112) A die has one red face, two green faces, and the remaining three are black. It
Roll the die once. If it comes up red you win $2 and if it comes up green you lose $0.5.
How much should you pay for the game to be fair.

113) The die from the previous exercise is rolled 2 times. If in both rolls
If the same color appears, you win $11; otherwise, you lose $7. Which is it?
the expected value of this game.

A box contains 4 red balls and 6 blue ones. 3 balls are drawn successively.
and with substitution. If you earn $2 for each red ball and $1 for each ball
blue, how much should I pay for the right to play for the game to be
equitable.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

the probability of getting heads is 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. Carolina selects one of
the coins at random:

a) If he throws it 3 times and observes 2 heads. Find the probability that there is
selected the normal currency.
b) If it is thrown 4 times and 3 seals are observed. Find the probability that there are none.
selected the coin that has a heads probability of 0.3.

Re:

Sea N: the selected currency is the normal one.

A1loaded coin 0.4
A2loaded coin 0.3.
CCS: the result is 2 heads and 1 tail.

P(CCS/N) = 0,530.125
P(N) = 0,3
P(CCS) = P(CCS/N)P(N) + P(CCS/A)1)P(A1) + P(CCS/A2)P(A2)
0.125 · 0.3 + 0.096 · 0.3 + 0.063 · 0.3 = 0.0946

P(CCS/N)P(N) 0.125 • 0.3

a) P(N/CCS) = = 0.4405
P(CCS) 0.0946
b) SSSC: the result is 3 seals and 1 face.
P(SSSC/A20.1029
P(A2= 0.3
P(SSSC) = P(SSSC/N)P(N) + P(SSSC/A1)P(A1) + P(SSSC/A2)P(A2)
= 0,0625·0,3 + 0,0864·0,3 + 0,1029·0,3 = 0,08393
P(SSSC/A2)P(A2) 0.1029 • 0.3
P(A2/SSSC) = = = 0,4087
P(SSSC) 0.08393

An instrument to detect AIDS detects the virus 95% of the time.

that the patient has this disease and detects the virus 20% of the time.
that the patient does not have AIDS. Consider the events A: the instrument
detects AIDS and B: the patient has AIDS. Assume that the probability of B
is 0.05. Calculate the probability that the patient has AIDS given that the
the instrument detected AIDS.

Resp.:

P(A/B) = 0.95
P(A/Bc= 0.2

P(B) = 0.05

P(A) = P(A|B)P(B) + P(A|c)P(Bc)

0.95 · 0.05 + 0.2 · 0.95 = 0.0475 + 0.19 = 0.2375
P(A|B)P(B) 0,95•0,05 0.0475
P(B/A) = = = = 0.2
P(A) 0.2375 0,2375

The probability of mechanical failure in a system to prevent leaks

radiation in a nuclear plant is 0.002. An additional sensor device is
design to detect any failure in the mechanical system and activate a
emergency shutdown system to stop the leak. The probability that
this device fails when it is necessary for it to operate is 0.03. Evaluate the
risk of radiation leakage at the plant, that is to say find the
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

M: device not working.

P(F) = 0,002
P(M/F) = 0.03
P(M∩ F) = P(M/F)P(F) = 0.03 · 0.002 = 0.00006

119) Two defective tubes are mixed with two good tubes. One is extracted.
try another until finding the two defective ones. The random variable X is defined as: amount of
articles extracted until finding the two defective ones. Find the number
expected of extracted articles and the variance of X.

Resp.:

Sea X: number of items extracted until two defective ones are found.

Ω ["DD","BDD","BBDD","BDBD","DBD","DBBD"]

Rx= {2, 3, 4}

1
P(X=2) =
6
2
P(X=3) =
6
3
P(X=4) =
6

pI =2•+ 31 + 4 • 2= + 3 2 6 12 20
4
E(X) = x∑
i + = 3.33
x=2 6 6 6 6 66 6

V(X) = E(X2) - E(X)2

1 2 3 2
= 22· + 3·2 + 4· 2 - (3.33)
6 6 6
4 18 48 70
= + + -11.0889 = - 11.0889 = 11.66 - 11.0889 = 0.5
6 6 6 6

It has been determined that the number of trucks arriving each hour at a
The warehouse has the probability distribution shown in the table:

Number of trucks (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Probability P(X = x) 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,25 0,3 0.1 0.05

a) Calculate the expected number of arrivals per hour.

b) Calculate the variance of this distribution.

Resp.:

Cantidad de camiones (X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Probability P(X = x) 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,25 0,3 0.1 0.05
Weighted value
0 0.1 0.3 0.75 1.2 0.5 0.3
x• P(X = x)
Weighted value
0 0,1 0.6 2.25 4.8 2.5 1.8
x2• P(X = x)

Rx{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

121) Consider an experiment that consists of two rolls of a die.

balanced. If X is the number of "4" that appear in the two rolls
And Y is the quantity of '5', find:

a) The joint quantity function of X and Y.

b) P[(X,Y)∈ A], where A is the region{(x,y) / 2x + y < 3

Resp.:

a) X is defined as the number of 4s that appear in the two rolls of a die.

Quantity of 5 that appear in the two rolls of a die.

Ω = {(1,1) (1,2) (1,3)(1,4) (1,5)(1,6) (2,1) (2,2) (2,3)(2,4) (2,5)(2,6) (3,1) (3,2) (3,3)
(3,4) (3,5)(3,6)(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)(6,1)
(6,2) (6,3)(6,4) (6,5)(6,6)}

Rxy{0, 1, 2}

X/Y 0 1 2 TOTAL
0 16/36 8/36 1/36 25/36
1 8/36 2/36 0 10/36
2 1/36 0 0 1/36
TOTAL 25/36 10/36 1/36 1

b) Let Z = 2x + y

X Y Z
0 0 0
0 1 1
0 2 2
1 0 2
1 1 3
1 2 4
2 0 4
2 1 5
2 2 6

Rz= {0,1,2,3,4,5,6}

16
P(Z = 0) = P(X = 0,Y = 0) =
36
8
P(Z = 1) = P(X = 0, Y = 1) =
36
1 8 9
P(Z = 2) = P(X = 0,Y = 2) + P(X = 1,Y = 0) = + =
36 36 36
2
P(Z = 3) = P(X = 1,Y = 1) =
36
1 1
P(Z = 4) = P(X = 1,Y = 2) + P(X = 2,Y = 0) = 0 + =
36 36
P(Z = 5) = P(X = 2, Y = 1) = 0
P(Z = 6) = P(X = 2,Y = 2) = 0
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

distributed. The process of selecting the winners is such that, at the beginning,
each ticket has the same chance of winning a first prize and each
one has the same chances of winning a consolation prize. None
ticket can win more than one prize.

a) What is the probability of winning a first prize with a single ticket?

b) What is the probability of winning a consolation prize?
c) What is the probability of winning a prize?

Resp.:

Out of the 1,000 bills:

10 will win first prizes

100 will win consolation prizes
890 will not win any prize.

Our only ticket can be considered as one chosen among the 1,000.

a) Sea A: the chosen ticket wins a first prize.

Given that there are 1,000 equally likely outcomes, 10 of which

correspond to event A, we have to:

10
P(A) = = 0.01
1000

b) Similarly, for event B: the chosen ticket wins a prize of

consolation.

It is deduced that:

100
P(B)= = 0.10
1000

c) Now, event C: the ticket wins some prize, is simply the union
of events A and B. Furthermore, since only one prize is allowed per ticket,
these events are mutually exclusive. Therefore, the required probability
es:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.01 + 0.10 = 0.11

It is estimated that 48% of degrees are obtained by women and that the
17.5% of all degrees are in business sciences. 4.7% of
all degrees correspond to women who graduate in sciences
business-related. The events are "the graduate is a woman" and "the graduate it
is in business sciences" statistically independent.

Resp.:

Let A and B be said events, respectively.

So:

P(A) = 0,48
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(A) * P(B) = (0.48) * (0.175) = 0.084≠ P(A∩ B)

these events are not independent.

Dependency can also be verified through probability.

conditional

P(AIB) 0,047
P(A|B) = = = 0.269
P(B) 0.175

In this way, only 26.9% of bachelor's degrees in business sciences

they correspond to women, while women constitute 48% of all
graduates.

124) When examining the previous records of a company's balance sheets, a

the auditor discovers that 15% contain errors. Furthermore, 60% of these
incorrect balances were considered unusual values based on the
previous data. 20% of all balances were also considered values
unusual. If the data of a certain balance seems to be unusual, which
it is the probability that it is incorrect.

Resp.:

If we refer to the events of interest as:

E: error.
V: unusual value.

we have to:

P(E) = 0,15
P(V) = 0,20

P(V/E) = 0.60

Using Bayes' theorem, it is obtained:

P(E/V) = P(V/E)P(E)/P(V) = (0.60)(0.15)/ 0.20 = 0.45

Thus, given the information that the balance is considered unusual, the
the probability of it being an error is modified, changing from 0.15 (a priori) to 0.45
(a posteriori).

An editor sends advertising for an accounting book to 80% of those

teachers in charge of a course in that subject. 30% of those
Those who received the propaganda started using the aforementioned book, as such
10% of the teachers did not receive it. What is the probability?
that a teacher who uses the book has received such advertising.

Resp.:

Let the events be:

R: receives it.
Engineering Programs FEDERICO SANTA MARÍA TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY - VIÑA DEL MAR CAMPUS

P(R) = 0,80
P(Rc) = 1 - 0,80 = 0,20

In addition:

P(U/R) = 0.30
P(U/Rc)= 0.10

We want to know the conditional probability that it has been received.

propaganda since the book is used. By Bayes' theorem, it is given that:

P(R/U) = P(U/R)P(R) / (P(U/R)P(R) + P(U/R)c)P(Rc)

= (0.30)(0.80)/(0.30)(0.80) + (0.10)(0.20)
= 0.923