Annex 4.

Probability

Unit III

ACTIVITY 4.
I invite you to read Chapter 4 of the book Introduction to Probability and
Statistics. Mendenhall W. Beaver and R. Beaver B. (2008), pages 128 - 170. And read
Chapter 5 of the book Applied Statistics to Business and Economics. Lind
D. Marchal W. and Wathen S. (2007). Mexico: Mc Graw Hill. Pages 140 - 169.

4.1. Briefly answer the following questions and send them to your advisor.
Tasks section.
1. Define what probability is
2. Types of probability approaches
3. Concept of a set
4. Set operations
5. The 5 most applied axioms of probability
6. What is conditional probability?
What is the independence of events?
What is a permutation?
9. What is a combination?
10. What does the tree diagram consist of?
11. What is a variable?
12. Types of variables

4.2. Develop a conceptual map that illustrates the relationships between the concepts
studied or reviewed in the reading.
4.3. Perform the following exercises, use the solved exercises from the books as a guide.
proposed.
4.3.1. Obtain a red heart from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards.
Identify the event
2. determine the probability approach
3. find the sample space.
4. determine the probability
4.3.2. A quality control inspector selects a part to test it.
The part is marked as acceptable, repairable, or scrap. Then, it
test another part. Mention the possible results of this experiment with two
parts.
4.3.3. An experiment requires rolling a single die. These are some events.
A: observe a 2
observe an even number
C: observe a number greater than 2
D: observe A and B
Observe A or B or both
F: observe A and C
a. List the simple events of the sample space.
b. Liste los eventos simples de cada uno de los eventos deAhastaF.
c. What probability should be assigned to simple events?
d. Calculate the probabilities of the six events from A to F by summing them up.
appropriate probabilities of simple events.
4.3.4. A space Sample space consists of five simple events with these
probabilities:
P (E1) = P (E2= 0.15 P (E30.4 P (E4) = 2P (E5)
a) Find the probabilities for the simple events E4y E5
b) Find the possibilities for these two events:
A = {E1, E3, E4}
B = {E2E3}
c) List the simple events that are in event A in B, or in both
d) List the simple events that are present in both events A and B

4.3.5. A survey among 34 graduates of DACEA showed that they have the
following specializations:

Accounting 10
Finance 5
System of 3
information
Management 6
Marketing 10

Let's suppose you select a student and observe their specialization.

a) What is the probability that he is specialized in management?
b) What concept of probability did you use to make this calculation?
4.3.6. A large company that needs to hire a new president prepares
a final list of five candidates, all qualified. Two of them are members.
from a minority group. To avoid biases in the selection of the candidate, the
the company decides to elect the president through a lottery.
a) What is the probability that one of the candidates belongs to the group
Did a minority get hired?
b) What concept of probability did I use to perform this calculation?
4.3.7. In each of the following cases, indicate whether the probability was carried out.
classical, empirical or subjective.
a) A basketball player commits 30 out of 50 fouls. The probability that
Committing the following errors is 0.6.
A student committee is formed with seven members to study the
environmental problems. What is the probability that any of the seven
Have you been chosen as the spokesperson for the team?

c) You buy one of the 5 million tickets sold by the National Lottery.
What is the probability of winning the accumulated prize of 100 million?
pesos?
d) The probability of an earthquake occurring in Mexico City during the
the next 10 years is 0.80.

4.3.8. Events A and B are mutually exclusive. Let's assume that P(A) =
0.30 and P(B) = 0.20. What is the probability that A or B occurs? What is the
probability that neither A nor B occurs?
4.3.9. Events X and Y are mutually exclusive. Let's suppose that P(X) =
0.50 and P(Y) = 0.02. What is the probability that X or Y occurs? What is the
probability that neither X nor Y occurs?
4.3.10. Customers of the bank BANAMEX choose their identification number
personal (PIN) de tres dígitos para utilizar los cajeros automáticos.
a) Consider this an experiment and mention four possible outcomes.
b) What is the probability that Mr. Pérez and Mrs. Díaz choose the same one?
PIN?
c) What concept of probability did you use for the answers?

4.3.11. A student from 200 supermarket chains revealed these earnings

after taxes.

Income after Number of

taxes companies
Less than $1 million 102
$1 to $20 million 61
$20 million or more 37
a) What is the probability that a particular string has less than
1,000,000 dollars in after-tax income?
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected string
have an income between $1,000,000 and $20,000,000 or an income of $20,000,000
or more? What probability rule was applied?
4.3.12. You have two groups of different items, 10 in the first group and
eight in the second. If you select one item from each group, how many pairs
what different forms can it take?

4.3.13. You have three different groups of items, four in the first group,
you are in the second and three in the third. If you select one item from each group,
How many different triplets can be formed?
4.3.14. I evaluated the following permutations. (SUGGESTION: it is possible that your
scientific calculator has a function that allows you to calculate permutations and
combinations quite easily.)
a. P 5
310
b. P9
6
c. P
620
d. P1
4.3.15. How many ways are there to select five people from a group of
Is the order of selection important?
4.3.16. How many ways are there to select two people from a group of
20 if the order of selection is not important?
4.3.17. Three balls are selected from a box that contains 10 bags. The order
Selection is not important. How many simple events are there in the space?
sample?
4.3.18. Their family vacation includes a domestic flight, renting a
car and the stay at a hotel in Cancun. If you choose among four lines
major airlines, five car rental agencies, and three chains of
hotels, how many options do you have available for your vacation?

4.3.19. An experiment yields one of five simple events.

equiprobable, E1, E2,….E5The events A, B, and C are defined as follows:

A: E1, E2 P(A) = .4
B: E1E2E4E5 P (B) = .8
C: E3E4 P(C) = .4
Find the probabilities associated with these compound events by listing them.
simple events of each one.
Ac b. A∩ B c. B ∩ C
d. A B e. B/C f. A/B
g. A U B U C h. (A ∩ B)C
An experiment consists of rolling a die and observing the number of
points that appear on the upper face. The events A, B, and C are defined as
they continue:
A: Observe a number less than 4
B: Observe a number less than or equal to 2.
C: Observe a number greater than 3
Find the probabilities related to the following events using the
simple event method or the rules and definitions of this section.

a. S b. A/B c. B
d. A ∩ B ∩ C e. A ∩ B f. A ∩ C
g.B ∩ C h. A U C IBUC
4.3.21. Suppose that P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.2. If events A and B are
independent, find these probabilities:
a. P (A∩ B) b. P(A U B)

4.3.22. Suppose that P(A) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.5. If events A and B are
mutually exclusive, find these probabilities:
a.P(A ∩ B) b. P(A U B)

4.3.23. An experiment results in either one or both events A and B with the
probabilities shown in this probability table:

A AC
B 0.34 0.46
BC 0.15 0.05

Find the following probabilities:

a. P(A) b. P(B) c. P(A∩B)
d. P(A or B) e.P(A/B) f. P(B / A)
4.3.24. P (A1) It is equal to 0.60, P (A2) = 0.40, P (B1/A1) = 0.05 and P (B1/A2= 0.10.
Use Bayes' theorem to determine P(A)1/B1).
4.3.25. P (A1) = 0.20, P (A2) = 0.40 and P (A3= 0.40.
P (B1/A1) = 0.25, P (B1/A2) = 0.05 and P (B1/A3=0.10.
Use Bayes' theorem to determine P(A3/B1).
4.3.26. A sample is selected from one of two populations, S1Y S2,with
 Annex 4. Probability

Unit III

ACTIVITY 4.
I invite you to read Chapter 4 of the book Introduction to Probability and
Statistics. Mendenhall W. Beaver and R. Beaver B. (2008), pages 128 - 170. And read
Chapter 5 of the book Applied Statistics to Business and Economics. Lind
D. Marchal W. and Wathen S. (2007). Mexico: Mc Graw Hill. Pages 140 - 169.

4.1. Briefly answer the following questions and send them to your advisor.
Tasks section.
1. Define what probability is
2. Types of probability approaches
3. Concept of a set
4. Set operations
5. The 5 most applied axioms of probability
6. What is conditional probability?
What is the independence of events?
What is a permutation?
9. What is a combination?
10. What does the tree diagram consist of?
11. What is a variable?
12. Types of variables

4.2. Develop a conceptual map that illustrates the relationships between the concepts
studied or reviewed in the reading.
4.3. Perform the following exercises, use the solved exercises from the books as a guide.
proposed.
4.3.1. Obtain a red heart from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards.
Identify the event
2. determine the probability approach
3. find the sample space.
4. determine the probability
4.3.2. A quality control inspector selects a part to test it.
The part is marked as acceptable, repairable, or scrap. Then, it
test another part. Mention the possible results of this experiment with two
parts.