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Morocco's Tourism Policy for the FIFA World Cup 2030: A Benchmarking and
Econometric Study
Hakim LAKHLIFI
Research Laboratory in Economic Competitiveness and Managerial Performance
(LARCEPEM), Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences – Souissi, Mohammed V
University of Rabat, Rabat, Morocco.
Amina BOUMAIZE
Research Laboratory in Economic Competitiveness and Managerial Performance
(LARCEPEM), Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences – Souissi, Mohammed V
University of Rabat, Rabat, Morocco.
Abstract. This study examines Morocco’s tourism policy in preparation for the FIFA World
Cup 2030, evaluating its alignment with sustainable and competitive benchmarks. Using a
mixed-method approach—benchmarking against Spain and Portugal and econometric
modeling via the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)—we analyze Morocco’s tourist
arrivals (2007–2023) and key tourism indicators from the TTCI and TTDI databases. Findings
indicate that while the 2023-2026 roadmap prioritizes air transport, human capital, and cultural
resources, it falls short in ICT infrastructure, health and hygiene, and regulatory alignment.
Future policies should integrate digitalization, health security, and structured tourism
governance to ensure long-term competitiveness.
Keywords: Tourism; Tourism policy; Tourism development; Benchmarking; Econometrics.
1. Introduction
Tourism is one of the largest and fastest-growing industries globally. According to the United
Nations World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism previously UNWTO), the sector is
projected to reach 1.8 billion international tourist arrivals by 2030. Despite the devastating
health crisis of 2020, which led to a collapse between 60% to 80% of global tourism demand
flows (Harchandani, et al., 2021) and revenues (Luković, et al., 2020). In the aftermath of the
Covid-19 pandemic, several global organizations have recognized the pivotal role of tourism
policies in the development of destinations and their capacity to address challenges related to
promotion, sustainability, and competitiveness. The Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) has observed a shift in tourism policies post-Covid-19 towards a
more sustainable and competitive framework (OECD, 2022). Recently, the OECD emphasized
that tourism policies must not only foster broader economic growth, but also balance tourism
development for a more sustainable future, and enhance the resilience of both local and global
travel markets. This can be achieved through the implementation of rigorous actions (OECD ,
2024).
For Morocco, the national economy is significantly dependent on tourism activities. The most
recent tourism satellite account indicates a direct contribution of 7% to Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), with 12% accounting indirect effects. The sector directly employed 550,000 individuals
and generated annual revenues of 80 billion dirhams in 2019 (IBRD & World Bank, 2022)
(MTAESS, 2020). Additionally, Morocco welcomed a total of 14.53 million visitors and
generated 104.6 billion dirhams of tourist receipts in 2023. This represents an increase from
10.9 million visitors and 93.7 billion dirhams in 2022, with a marking growth rates of 11% and
12%, respectively (Tourism Observatory , 2024). Furthermore, the national tourism sector has
surpassed its pre-Covid-19 performance, with an additional 1.53 million tourists and 25.94
billion dirhams in revenue compared to 2019 levels (Tourism Observatory, 2020). Despite the

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pandemic's massive negative impact, the pandemic confirms also the resiliency and the
robustness of Moroccan travel and leisure activities. Given the economic, social, cultural,
ecological, technological, and environmental significance of the tourism sector, Morocco has
historically implemented various tourism policies tailored to different periods and objectives.
The current national tourism policy is outlined in the 2023-26 roadmap, which aims to attract
17.5 million tourists, generate 120 billion dirhams in foreign currency from tourist receipts, and
create 200,000 new direct tourism job opportunities (OECD, 2024). Through the
implementation of aplenty actions, such as doubling air capacity, intensifying promotion and
marketing efforts with a focus on digitalization, diversifying leisure offerings to include more
cultural and entertainment offers. Also, reestablishing and expanding accommodation
capacities, enhancing the competencies of human capital, and supporting the Tourism
Observatory of Morocco to improve the accuracy of statistics and the quality of market studies
(OECD, 2024). Recognizing that Moroccan tourism is currently undergoing a forced transition
toward achieving sustainability and competitiveness. Particularly in anticipation of co-hosting
the FIFA World Cup in 2030 alongside leading tourist destinations such as Spain and Portugal.
Due to the scale of this challenge, the 2023-26 roadmap functions more as an operational guide
than a comprehensive strategic policy. The Court of Auditors in Morocco highlights and
acknowledges the existing shortcomings in tourism policy and planning. These issues primarily
arise from the lack of comprehensive long-term national programs and regional plans necessary
to support the sector's future evolution (Court of Auditors, 2023).
In light of these observations, and within a context of sustainability and increased international
competitiveness, how can Morocco formulate an effective tourism policy that aligns with
sustainability and competitiveness, in preparation for the FIFA World Cup 2030?
The objective of this study is to identify the key levers for formulating Morocco's future tourism
policy by 2030. This is achieved through a mixed-methods approach. Qualitatively, the research
involves an empirical investigation of the factors that influenced the establishment of previous
national tourism policies, particularly both visions 2010 and 2020. Additionally, a comparative
analysis (benchmarking) is conducted with the contemporary tourism policy models of Spain
and Portugal. Quantitatively, dynamic econometric modeling is employed to assess the validity
of the theoretical model and its determinants that shape tourism policies in the Moroccan
context.
This research adopts a hypothetico-deductive approach, grounded on the assumption that the
factors outlined in the 2023-26 roadmap are insufficient for formulating a successful tourism
policy that addresses the challenges of sustainability and competitiveness up to the 2030 FIFA
World Cup, particularly when compared to leading Mediterranean tourism destinations. The
hypotheses are as follows:
• H1: The 2023-26 roadmap incorporates the essential elements that Moroccan tourism
development needs to address the challenges of sustainability and competitiveness in
the 2030 horizon.
• H2: The 2023-26 roadmap, which outlines the Moroccan tourism planning vision, does
not adequately respond to national tourism development challenges in terms of
sustainability and competitiveness, particularly in comparison with Spain and Portugal
policies for the 2030 FIFA World Cup.
2. Literature review
Tourism policy (TP) has seen growing academic and professional interest over recent decades.
As a public policy, TP is an organized set of guidelines and strategies that direct decision-
making, shaping tourism development and activities within destinations (Ritchie, et al., 2003)

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(Vanhove , 2002). Globally, TP aims to integrate tourism’s economic, political, cultural, and
intellectual benefits harmoniously with local communities to enhance quality of life, support
international peace, and foster prosperity (Edgell, 1990). TP outlines the strategic direction that
a destination or nation intends to follow in developing tourism, aiming to maximize economic
and social benefits. It supports quality visitor experiences while minimizing negative impacts
on the environment and local cultures (Edgell , et al., 2019) (Biederman , 2007). TP has thus
become a tool to ensure a balance between tourism growth and the protection of local
environmental and socio-cultural integrity (Goeldner, et al., 2012). Following World War II,
tourism policies prioritized promoting tourism to maximize visitor numbers and boost local
economies, particularly through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and balance of payments
(Sessa, 1976) (Fayos-Solá, 1996). This approach predominantly supported mass tourism, which
often came at the cost of environmental and social impacts. By the 1980s, global sustainability
debates led to calls for policies that incorporated socio-cultural and environmental factors into
tourism. Concepts such as soft tourism emerged, emphasizing tourism’s need to avoid
damaging the very attractions it depends on, thus preserving the quality of life for local
communities (Guo, et al., 2019) (Baum, 1994) (Krippendorf, 1982). Sustainable development
was formally defined in the 1987 Brundtland Report as development that meets present needs
without compromising future generations' ability to meet theirs (Hardy, et al., 2002) (WCED,
1987).
Contemporary sustainable tourism, guided by the "Tourism in the 2030 Agenda" aligns with
the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals particularly emphasize decent
work and economic growth (Goal 8), responsible consumption and production (Goal 12), and
marine ecosystem protection (Goal 14) (UNWTO, 2017). Additionally, five pillars now guide
tourism policies: sustainable growth, social inclusion, environmental protection, cultural
heritage, and peace (Berbeka, et al., 2024). TPs focused on sustainability address various
dimensions, such as socio-economic, ecological, and political. Such policies are often seen in
destinations transitioning beyond mass tourism to more diversified and specialized offerings,
under post-modern globalization’s influence. This era saw the spread of new information
technologies, intensifying global connectivity and cultural exchange (Hoogvelt, 2006).
The 1990s marked a shift from mass tourism, under Fordist principles of standardized
production, to post-Fordist tourism, with more flexible, specialized offerings. Authors then
emphasized that competitiveness in tourism could not exist without sustainability (Mottironi,
et al., 2012). Competitiveness involves efficiently managing resources and delivering value
while maintaining a competitive edge in the global market (Croes, et al., 2020) (Goffi, et al.,
2019). Achieving competitiveness allows destinations to attract tourism, boost local life quality,
and conserve resources for future generations (Hefny, 2023) (Ritchie, et al., 1993 ). The World
Economic Forum’s Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), first established in
2001, evolved into the Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI) in 2021. This shift
followed the COVID-19 crisis, incorporating resilience and sustainability into the index to
highlight tourism’s role in broader economic and social development (Hefny, 2023). Modern
tourism policies focus on maximizing sustainable economic benefits while protecting and
preserving resources. Post-Fordist tourism policies embrace principles of comparative and
competitive advantage, grounded in the theories of David Ricardo and Michael Porter. These
policies aim for long-term, sustainable profits while enabling destinations to thrive amid global
competition (Fayos-Solà, 2002) (Vanhove , 2002) (Smeral, 1998) (Fayos-Solá, 1996).
3. Study of Spain, Portugal and Moroccan context
Tourism policy as a progressive process of directives, guidelines, principles, procedures and
actions established within a framework. And which represents the intention of a community (or

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nation) to effectively achieve planning, development, promotion, sustainability and
competitiveness objectives for the future growth of tourism (Edgell , et al., 2019).
From a historical and empirical standpoint, France established the National Tourist Office in
1910, making it the first country in the world to embrace tourism as a major state concern. At
the same time, three other countries, Argentina (Piglia, 2011), Spain (Cantero, 2014), and
Portugal (Garcia, 2014) were leaders in the development of tourism policies.
a. Spain case
Between 2000 and 2023, Spain launched multiple tourism policies: the Integral Quality Plan
(PICTE) 2000-06, Horizon 2020, National Integral Plan 2012-15, the 2021 Recovery Plan, and
the Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030. PICTE prioritized collaboration among stakeholders,
addressing environmental concerns through local projects and enforcing sustainability in high-
density tourist regions like the Balearic and Canary Islands (Delgado, et al., 2012). The Spanish
Tourism Quality Institute (ICTE) and the Spanish Integrated Tourism Quality System in
Destinations (SICTED) further standardized quality measures (González, 2024).
The Horizon Plan 2020, influenced by OECD recommendations, focused on overcoming
obstacles to innovation in tourism, targeting marketing, knowledge expansion, and
environmental tourism (Parsa, et al., 2015). Initiatives included the Spanish Tourism Plan 2008-
12, which sought to reduce seasonality and balance socio-territorial resources (Martín, et al.,
2014), and the National Integral Plan 2012-15, which promoted Spain as a SMART Destination
through ICTs (Baidal, et al., 2023).
COVID-19 severely impacted tourism, causing a 77% drop in visitors in 2020, leading to the
2021 Tourism Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan (OECD, 2022). Funded by the
EU, the plan emphasized digitalization and eco-friendly practices, aiming to diversify tourism
and mitigate environmental impacts (Jones, 2022) (Soares , et al., 2021). Complementing this,
the 2022 modernization plan prioritized infrastructure upgrades and workforce digital skills
(Mileva, et al., 2023).
The 2023 Spanish Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030 presents a long-term vision focused on
sustainable, high-value tourism. Its five strategic pillars—improved governance, sustainability,
digital transformation, accessibility, and enhanced visitor experience—align with global
sustainability goals. The strategy fosters resilient tourism development through economic,
social, and environmental sustainability, preservation of natural and cultural resources, rural
revitalization, participatory governance, and adaptation to global challenges (SEGITTUR, et
al., 2024).
Table 1: Spain tourism policies and programs

Period Tourism policy

2000-2006 Integral Quality Plan for Spanish Tourism (PICTE)
2007-2020 Spain’s Horizon 2020 Plan
2012-2015 National Integral Plan
2021- Tourism Recovery-Transformation and Resilience Plan
2022- Modernization and competitiveness plan for the tourism sector
2023-2030 Spanish Sustainable Tourism Strategy for horizon 2030
Source: Garcia (2014), and adjusted by the authors

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b. Portugal case
Portugal views tourism as a significant economic driver, contributing to GDP growth, balance
of payments, and job creation, thereby enhancing national competitiveness. In 2007, the
National Strategic Plan for Tourism (PENT) set out five key areas: territory, destinations and
products, branding and markets, resource qualification, and innovation. This strategy
introduced 10 tourism products, such as beach tourism, gastronomy, and wellness, tailored to
each region's unique resources (Remoaldo, et al., 2012). PENT was revised in 2011 and 2013
to address financial market shifts and refine goals through eight development programs and 40
regional projects (Bailoa, et al., 2020).
In 2015, two policy papers, "Tourism 2020" and "Five Elements of a Dream," established five
strategic goals: communication, competition, capacity-building, attraction, and cooperation.
This was to promote Portugal as Europe’s most dynamic travel destination by focusing on
principles such as freedom, openness, and collaboration (Pato, et al., 2023).
The 2017 Tourism Strategy for 2027, aligned with European support for 2021-2027,
emphasized long-term planning with five strategic pillars: economic growth, knowledge
enhancement, networking, territorial development, and national promotion. This strategy aimed
to set a stable framework, foster sectoral integration, and enhance cooperation among tourism
stakeholders (Bailoa, et al., 2020).
Before COVID-19, tourism in Portugal directly contributed 8.1% of GVA, with 24.63 million
visitors and $20.5 billion in receipts in 2019. The pandemic reduced these numbers to 6.48
million visitors and $8.8 billion in receipts, but the sector rebounded in 2023 with 26.54 million
visitors and $27.2 billion in receipts (OECD, 2022).
In 2021, Portugal launched the Reactivate Tourism Plan within the Portugal 2030 Strategy and
the Sustainable Tourism Plan 2023 to make tourism more competitive and sustainable. Key
goals included raising employee qualifications, enhancing year-round tourism, and promoting
environmental sustainability through water conservation, waste management, and energy
efficiency (Mendes, et al., 2023).
Table 2: Portugal tourism policies and programs

Period Tourism policy

2007-2017 PENT - National Strategic Plan for Tourism
2011- PENT (1st revision)
2013- PENT (2nd revision)
2014-2020 Action Plan for Tourism Development in Portugal
2017-2027 Tourism Strategy
2021- PRT - the Reactivate Tourism: Build the Future Action Plan
2021-2023 Sustainable Tourism Plan
Source : Bailoa et al. (2020)
c. Morocco case
Many developing nations saw the chance to engage in a sector that would boost their economies,
like tourism, in the early 1960s, following the World Bank orders. In this regard, Morocco is
among the countries that have always supported the travel and leisure sector. In fact, the tourist
industry, following agriculture, has emerged as a structural vector of the nation's economic and
social advancement since the establishment of the Ministry of tourism in 1965 with the 1965/67
three-year plan. Contemporary, two subsequent tourism strategic-policies, the 2010 vision and

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the 2020 vision, were introduced in the 2000s to reflect the kingdom's interest in the travel and
tourist industry (Steenbruggen, 2016).
Vision 2010 set out to attract 10 million tourists in 2010, house 7 million foreign visitors in
hotels, reach a capacity of 230,000 beds, construct six large seaside resorts as part of the Azur
plan, generate 8.873 billion dollars in foreign exchange earnings, create 600,000 new direct
jobs, train 72,000 tourism professionals, and raise the tourism sector's share of GDP from 6.5%
to 8.0% (García, 2018).
Almost 9.3 million foreign visitors including 4.9 million foreign visitors and 4.3 million
Moroccans living abroad visited the country at the end of 2010. With 8.18 billion dollars in
tourism earnings (nearly to the 2010 vision goal) (WBG, 2024).
The assessment of the 2001–2010 tourism policy proved to be highly positive, with an
achievement rate of 93% for tourist arrivals, 92% for tourism revenues, and 84.4% for national
accommodation capacity. Additionally, 75% of tourism-related jobs and 36.5% of the projected
sector contribution to GDP were realized. Regarding coastal resorts, only two began receiving
guests before the 2010 deadline: the Saïdia resort (in the province of Berkane) and Mazagan
(El Jadida) (Hmioui, et al., 2020).
Despite the advancements of Vision 2010, several limitations were noted. In terms of demand,
Morocco remained heavily reliant on traditional European markets (France and Spain) as the
main sources of visitors. Furthermore, these tourist flows were largely captured by European
tour operators, limiting the diversification of attraction channels. In 2008, the capacity of
classified hotel accommodation was highly concentrated in Marrakech and Agadir, which
together accounted for 73,000 beds, or 48% of the national supply. This concentration can be
explained by a lack of diversification in tourist products, with a primary focus on coastal
tourism (Agadir) and cultural tourism (Marrakech). In terms of investment, Vision 2010 favored
the development of hotel infrastructure, to the detriment of other segments such as nature
tourism, leisure activities, and entertainment. The Azur Plan, the central pillar of this strategy,
further accentuated this imbalance by concentrating investments in the South, with the creation
of three resorts: Mogador, Taghazout, and Guelmime. Although Vision 2010 helped address
some structural obstacles, such as land and administrative constraints, it did not fully respond
to major challenges such as diversifying the offering, improving service quality, training, and
promoting the sector (Hmioui, et al., 2020).
Table 3 : Assessment review on the objectives of Vision 2010

Tourism policy: Vision 2010

Objectives Predictions Achievements
Tourist arrivals 10 million tourists 9.3 million tourists
Tourist revenues 480 billion dirhams 440 billion dirhams
National accommodation capacity 230,000 hotel beds 194,025 hotel beds
Tourism jobs 600,000 jobs 450,000 jobs
Participation in GDP 20% of GDP 7.3% of GDP
Source : García, et al. (2016), OBST (2010)
The 2020 vision main goal was to rank Morocco among the world's top 20 tourism destinations.
This tourism policy primary goals include: tripling the number of national air passengers;
creating 470,000 new direct jobs; increasing tourism revenues to 15.5 billion dollars by 2020;
doubling the number of foreign visitors to 20 million by 2020; doubling the capacity of tourist
accommodations with the construction of 200,000 new bed places, including 160,000 hotel beds

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and 40,000 tourist residential properties; and increasing the contribution of tourism GDP to
national GDP by two percentage points (García, 2018).
The outcomes were not at all what was anticipated. A total of 9.95 billion dollars was earned
from tourism at the end of 2019 from roughly 13 million visitors, including 7.1 million foreign
visitors and 5.9 million Moroccans living abroad. Also, tourism directly contributed 7% of the
national GDP (12% when considering indirect contributions), created 550,000 direct jobs, and
generated nearly 80 billion dirhams in annual foreign exchange travel receipts (MTAESS,
2020) (El Menyari, 2021).
The assessment of the Vision 2020 tourism policy appears less positive than that of Vision
2010, with only 65% of arrivals achieved, 62.21% of revenues, and 55% of tourism-related
jobs. Additionally, the sector's contribution to GDP reached just 52.43% of the projected target,
amounting to 7% of the GDP in 2019. Notably, the national accommodation capacity saw a
depreciation of 17.54%, falling from 194,025 beds to 160,000 hotel beds in 2019. Experts
viewed the forecasts as overly optimistic, given the highly contrasting outcomes (El Menyari,
2021) (Hmioui, et al., 2020).
Table 4 : Assessment review on the objectives of Vision 2020

Tourism policy: Vision 2020

Objectives Predictions Achievements (in 2019)
Ambition 20 most global Morocco 66th worldwide in the
competitive destinations Travel and Tourism Competitiveness
Index (TTCI-2019)
Tourist arrivals 20 million tourists 13 million tourists
Tourism revenue 1000 billion dirhams 622.1 billion dirhams
(cumulative between
2011-2020)
National 200,000 new hotel beds 160,000 hotel beds available
accommodation (including newly built ones)
capacity
Tourism jobs 1 million jobs 550,000 jobs
Participation in GDP 150 billion dirhams 81,5 billion dirhams in TGDP1, or
7.1% of GDP
Source : El Menyari (2021), MTAESS (2020), Hmioui, et al. (2020), WEF (2019)
Or, after the Covid-19 crisis, this industry found itself bare-handed, forged from audacity and
helpless determination in the face of such a massive shock, with the desire for a quick and
fruitful reinvention. Thus, a drop of -79% in arrivals has been recorded to receive almost 3
million tourists. While revenues have decreased by 54% to settle at 36.5 billion dirhams
compared to the year 2019 (OBST, 2022) (Mirar, et al., 2023).
In August 2020, a recovery program contract for the tourism sector in the post-Covid-19 phase
was established by the Ministry of Tourism, containing a set of 21 measures focused on three
major objectives: preserving the economic fabric and employment; accelerating the restart
phase; and laying the groundwork for a sustainable transformation of the sector (MTAESS,
2020) (Didast, et al., 2023).

1
TGDP: Tourism Gross Domestic Product

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If the observation about the fragility of the tourism sector is correct, then the one about its strong
resilience is also true. Namely, 10.9 million tourists visited the country, and 91.3 billion dirhams
in tourism revenue were generated during the year 2022. This represents a recovery of 84% and
an increase of 15.9% respectively compared to 2019 (OBST, 2022).
In March 2023, the Moroccan government launched the new operational roadmap for 2023-
2026, which aims to attract 17.5 million tourists and generate 120 billion dirhams in foreign
currency revenue, as well as create 200,000 new direct and indirect jobs through a series of
targeted actions across five cross-cutting sectors: air capacity, promotion and marketing,
cultural and recreational activities, the national hospitality capacities, and the quality and skills
of human capital (MTAESS, 2024).
Additionally, Morocco welcomed a total of 14.53 million visitors and generated 104.6 billion
dirhams of tourist receipts in 2023. This represents an increase from 10.9 million visitors and
93.7 billion dirhams in 2022, with a marking growth rates of 11% and 12%, respectively
(Tourism Observatory , 2024). Furthermore, the national tourism sector has surpassed its pre-
Covid-19 performance, with an additional 1.53 million tourists and 25.94 billion dirhams in
revenue compared to 2019 levels (Tourism Observatory, 2020). Despite the pandemic's massive
negative impact, the pandemic confirms also the resiliency and the robustness of Moroccan
travel and leisure activities.
Table 5: Morocco tourism policies and programs
Period Tourism history and strategic-policies

1918- Creation of the tourism central committee to create a place for French
people to rest. Invest in luxury hotels, transportation, travel administration,
and any measure improving the stay of tourists.

1937- Creation of the Cherifian Office of Tourism in charge of the creation,

management, and control of tourist hosting and information organizations
and the preservation of historical monuments.

1946- Creation of the Moroccan National Tourism Office its mission is to promote
and market Morocco as a tourist destination, both nationally and
internationally.

1965- Creation of the Ministry of Tourism with the mission of tourism strategic-
political governance.

1965-1967 Three-year planification plan recognizing tourism as a priority sector for the
Moroccan economy after agriculture.

1968-1972 Five-year plan focusing on creating middle-market hotel capacity due to the
lack of existing capacity.

1973-1977 Five-year plan and triennial plan designed to encourage mass tourism.
1978-1980
In order to accommodate all socio-professional, average-income tourist
categories, medium-category hotels—those with three and four stars—have

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been given preference.

1980-1992 1981-1985 plan and 1988-1992 plan:

This period was characterized by the application of the structural adjustment
program and by the stagnation of tourism, despite the withdrawal of the
public sector.

1993-1999 This was a period of privatization and non-planning in the tourism sector,
with a remarkably stagnation of classified hotel capacity.

2000-2010 National tourism policy with the main objective to attract 10 million
tourists, indeed 7 million foreign (non-Moroccan) visitors.

2011-2020 New national tourism policy which focuses on sustainability with two core
goals, attract 20 million tourists (doubling the market size) and emerge
Morocco among the top 20 destinations in the world.

2020-2022 Recovery plan for the tourism sector in the post Covid 19 phase through
three major objectives, preserve the economic fabric and employment,
accelerate the restart phase, and lay the foundations for a sustainable
transformation of the sector.

2023-2026 New ministerial operational roadmap with the aim of attracting 17.5 million
tourists.

Source : Raffali (2022), El Menyari (2021), Almeida-García (2018), Steenbruggen (2016),

Boujrouf (2005)
4. Methodology
To analyze and explain the strategic determinants that influence the formulation of future
tourism policy for Morocco in the lead-up to FIFA World Cup 2030. The research uses a mixt
method approach, qualitatively, a benchmark is deployed to distinguish between the case of
Morocco, Spain and Portugal. Benchmarking is a research method used to evaluate and
compare specific practices, standards, or metrics against recognized or exemplary models in a
particular field. Its purpose is to identify best practices, performance standards, and areas for
improvement by analyzing comparable data, procedures, or experiences from other countries,
organizations, and across different time periods (Carpinetti, et al., 2002).
In this study, a comparison (through convergence and discoveries) is made between the strategic
axes or determinants of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco's modern tourism policies, further
supported by a network analysis (see table 6 and appendices). These tourism policies (TPs) are
selected and ordered based on their long-term strategic perspective, as well as their release and
implementation periods (most recent first). Specifically, for Spain, the Tourism Modernization
and Competitiveness Plan was released in 2022, followed by the Sustainable Tourism Strategy
in 2023. For Portugal, the Tourism Strategy 2027 was released in 2017, and the 2030 Build the
Future Action Plan was released in 2021. For Morocco, Vision 2010 was released in 2001, and
Vision 2020 in 2011. Additionally, to test the study's hypotheses, the Moroccan Tourism
Roadmap 2023-2060 is analyzed through this comparative approach. Also, the research relies

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on a hypothetico-deductive methodology, which aims to systematically evaluate hypothesis by
deriving specific predictions and testing them against empirical data. In this approach, a
hypothesis is proposed based on existing theories or observations, and predictions are logically
deduced from it. If these predictions are confirmed through observation or data analysis, the
hypothesis gains support; if they are refuted, the hypothesis may need revision or rejection. This
methodology enables rigorous, evidence-based conclusions by assessing how well the initial
hypothesis aligns with real-world evidence (Sprenger, 2011).To test the hypothesis
quantitatively, a dynamic econometric approach is employed using the Generalized Method of
Moments (GMM). This method is applied to a panel data set, which facilitates the analysis of
both time series and cross-sectional data. This makes it particularly well-suited for tourism
activity databases, as is the case in this study.
Dynamic econometric modeling is a quantitative approach used to analyze relationships that
evolve over time, often capturing the influence of past values on current outcomes in a panel
data framework. In such models, incorporating lagged variables (previous values of the
dependent or independent variables) helps account for the persistence of effects, making it
possible to understand both short-term and long-term impacts. However, this approach
introduces potential endogeneity2 issues, as past values of variables can be correlated with the
error terms in the model (Li, et al., 2021).
The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is an estimation technique particularly suited to
data-panel models because it can address endogeneity concerns and provide consistent
parameter estimates. GMM uses instrumental variables, these variables are correlated with the
endogenous regressors but uncorrelated with the error term, to isolate the exogenous variation
in the regressors (Wintoki, et al., 2012). In the context of dynamic panel data, GMM exploits
lagged values of the variables as instruments, helping to account for the feedback effects and
omitted variable bias that could otherwise distort the results. This makes GMM a powerful tool
for estimating relationships in dynamic econometric models, especially in policy-oriented
research, where the goal is to capture complex interactions over time and ensure reliable,
unbiased results (Wintoki, et al., 2012).
Regarding to the problem and objective of this paper, the research applies the mixt
methodology, qualitatively, the benchmark compares the tourism policies of selected
Mediterranean destinations, with particular attention given to the recent selected tourism policy-
strategies. For this purpose, an open (identifying items, idem variables), axial (highlighting
plans, idem categories), and selective coding (selecting strategic axes, idem core categories)
was conducted using Nvivo. Quantitatively, the performance of dynamic econometric model
through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), based on the Panel Data method to test
the validity of the hypothesis. Eviews is the software used for this econometric investigation.
a. Benchmarking
To compare the formulation of tourism policies between Morocco, Spain and Portugal, a
thematic and content analysis were deployed through a coding approach inspired from the
grounded theory. Thematic analysis focuses on identifying, analyzing, and interpreting patterns,
or themes, within qualitative data.
This process involves immersing in the data, coding, and grouping codes into overarching
themes that capture key aspects of the research topic. Thematic analysis is particularly useful
for exploring complex, subjective experiences and understanding recurring ideas across data

22
Endogeneity: occurs when an independent variable in a statistical model is related to the error
term, causing biased and unreliable results (Li, et al., 2021).

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(Vaismoradi, et al., 2013). In this investigation, thematic analysis helps with identifying and
structuring the present tourism policies for the three countries.
Content analysis, on the other hand, involves a more systematic approach, often used to measure
the frequency and context of specific concepts or variables. This method is beneficial for
identifying trends, making comparisons, and quantifying data (Vaismoradi, et al., 2013).
In this study, content analysis allows identifying the variables, the plans and strategic axes of
tourism policies formulation across the cases studied. The following table 6 shows the results
of the benchmarking analysis:
Table 6 :Results of tourism policies benchmarking
Portugal Tourism Strategy - 2027
Convergences (with Disconvergences (with Strategic axes valuated
Morocco 2010 & 2020) Morocco)
-Emphasis on -Governance and legal -Prioritization of Travel &
competitiveness and framework Tourism
professionalization
-Focus on human capital -Value addition and -Human resources (training and
Development international profile education)
-Sustainability and -Sustainability and -Safety and security in the
environmental regeneration destination
considerations -CO2 Emissions from Tourism
-Percentage of Eco-Certified
Hotels
-Promotion and visibility -Knowledge and innovation -Marketing expenditure in
tourism
-Social media integration
-Tourist inquiries and bookings
-Connectivity and mobility -Transport infrastructure
quality
-Flight connectivity index
-Authenticity and preservation -Heritage site management

Portugal Reactivate Tourism: Build the Future Action Plan - 2030

Convergences (with Disconvergences (with Strategic axes valuated
Morocco 2010 & 2020) Morocco 2010 & 2020)
-Sustainability and -Building the future of the -Investment in sustainable
environmental focus tourism (finance, knowledge, tourism projects
innovation, qualifications, -Renewable energy utilization
sustainability) in tourism
-Cultural heritage and -Foster safety (tourism activity -Safety and security in the
authenticity and consumer behavior) destination
-Investment in -Generate business -Infrastructure investment level
infrastructure (competitiveness of the -Number of new business

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destination, mobility, and licenses
stimulate demand)
-Capacity building and -Support companies -Number of training programs
human resource (preservation of employment offered
development and operational strategy) -Employee retention rates in
tourism
-Marketing and -International campaigns and -Number of international
promotion of trade capacity building marketing campaigns
destinations -Tourism revenue
-Public-Private -Number of Public-Private
Partnerships Partnerships (PPP)
-PPP Investment Levels in
Tourism
Spain Modernization and competitiveness plan for the tourism sector - 2022
Convergences (with Disconvergences (with Strategic axes valuated
Morocco 2010 & 2020) Morocco)
-Digital transformation -Independent plan for tourism -Digital adoption rates in
competitiveness tourism
-Sustainability -Financing competitiveness -Tourism competitiveness
initiatives (state financial fund for tourism index
competitiveness - FOCIT) -Funding levels for
sustainability initiatives
-Financial structuring -Digitalization and tourism -Success rates of funded digital
intelligence program tourism projects
-Competitiveness and -Tourism resilience strategies -Market share of major
destination Appeal for extra-peninsular territories destinations
-Financial capacity and
resilience for tourism
businesses
-Transformation of the tourism -Business continuity plan
model to environmental, adoption rates
socioeconomic, and territorial -New tourism projects
sustainability generating rates
-Resilience and adaptation -Resilience rates for tourism
businesses (e.g., recovery
rates)
-Resilience strategy
implementation Rates
Spanish Sustainable Tourism Strategy - 2030
Convergences (with Disconvergences (with Strategic axes valuated
Morocco 2010 & 2020) Morocco)
-Competitiveness and -Transformation of the tourism -Business continuity
innovation model to environmental, -New tourism projects

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socioeconomic, and territorial
sustainability
-Governance and - Competitiveness and -Innovation index in tourism
partnership innovation -New tourism products
-Sustainability -Sustainable growth -Growth of sustainable tourism
sector
-Visitor satisfaction on
sustainability initiatives
-Product diversification -Improving employment -Variety of tourism products
quality offered
-Rates of local communities’
integration in tourism
-Marketing effort -Promote sustainability as a -Marketing spend efficiency
brand value (ROI)
-Compliance rates with
sustainable tourism regulations
-Tourism intelligence -Strategic approach to
sustainability
-Adaptation of existing
regulations to the new tourist
environment
-Increasing international -Tourism diplomacy metrics
influence through tourism (as (e.g., partnerships with other
soft power) countries)
Source: Authors
NB: The details of the Morocco, Portugal and Spain tourism policies comparison in terms of
strategic axes, plans and variables are illustrated by the appendix 1,2 and 3.
b. Data and statistical specification
After highlighting with the use of a benchmarking analysis, the various tourism policy strategic
axes, plans and items for Spain and Portugal in comparison with the Moroccan case. The study
identified a wide number of variables that must be tested to confirm their validity for the
formulation Morocco’s future TP. All these ones are part of Travel and Tourism
Competitiveness index (TTCI), and Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI).
Following the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the research protocol is presented as:
(1) Collecting data selected by the benchmarking analysis from the TTCI and TTDI open-access
databases, (2) Preparing the Data-Panel by combining all these variables (including the natural
logarithm and adding the lagged variables), (3) Conducting an all unit root test to confirm
stationarity, (4) Conducting a normality test, (5) Applying the Fixed Effect test based on the
outputs of the all unit root test and the normality test (with selected variables at a 5% level of
significance), and (6) Performing the GMM test using the instruments chosen by the Fixed
Effect test (with a 5% level of significance).

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Table 7 : Details of the variables selected for the GMM test

Variable Description Sources Database

Tourist arrivals This is the quantitative, physical, and/or monetary Moroccan [Link]
(TA) expression of tourist demand in a given destination. tourism [Link]/fr/tourisme
ministry /chiffres-cles/
Air Transport Refers to the facilities, systems, and services that The World TTCI and TTDI
Infrastructure support air travel and connectivity for tourists, Economic
(ATI) including airports, runways, air traffic Forum
management, and ground transportation links.
Cultural Are the tangible and intangible assets that represent The World TTCI and TTDI
Resources a destination's heritage, identity, and cultural Economic
(CR) significance, including historical sites, museums, Forum
traditional practices, art, and festivals.
Health and Refers to the measures and practices implemented The World TTCI and TTDI
Hygiene (HH) to ensure the safety and well-being of travelers, Economic
including sanitation standards, cleanliness of Forum
accommodations and public spaces, food safety
protocols, and health services.
Human The workforce involved in the tourism industry, The World TTCI and TTDI
Resources encompassing all personnel engaged in providing Economic
(HR) services to travelers, including management, Forum
hospitality staff, tour guides, and customer service
representatives.
ICT Refers to the technological systems and services The World TTCI and TTDI
Infrastructure that support the management, distribution, and Economic
(ICTINF) communication of tourism-related information. Forum
Natural Are the environmental assets and features that The World TTCI and TTDI
Resources attract visitors and contribute to their experiences, Economic
(NR) including landscapes, wildlife, forests, beaches, Forum
etc.
Policy Rules The guidelines, laws, and standards established by The World TTCI and TTDI
and governments and regulatory bodies to manage and Economic
Regulations govern tourism activities. Forum

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(PRR)
Source: authors

Table 8 : Tests of Normality

Source: Authors
Table 9 : Nonparametric tests

Source: Authors
The normality assessment (table 8) conducted through both Kolmogorov-Smirnov (with
Lilliefors correction) and Shapiro-Wilk tests indicates significant deviations from normality
across most log-transformed variables (p < .001), with lag-nr showing a slightly higher but still

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significant p-value (p < .003). Despite the logarithmic transformation applied to the variables
(TA, GDPPC, MS, RPEX, GCI_INF, GCR_INF, GI, and IF), the consistently low significance
values for both tests suggest rejection of the null hypothesis of normal distribution.
Also, in table 9, The hypothesis test summary presents the results of Kruskal-Wallis tests
conducted across multiple variables to examine distributional differences among country
categories. The selection of this nonparametric test is particularly appropriate given the earlier
normality test results which indicated violations of normality assumptions.
All eight variables (LN TA, LN GDPPC, LN MS, LN RPEX, LN GCI_INF, LN GCR_INF,
LN GI, and LN IF) demonstrate statistically significant differences across country categories (p
< .001), leading to consistent rejection of all null hypotheses. The combined results from both
the normality tests and nonparametric tests provide strong justification for employing the
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation approach in this context.
In order to estimate the parameters related to the dynamic panel data model using the
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The following model equation is specified:

TAit = α + β1LTA-1it + β2ATIit + β3CRit + β4HHit + β5HRit + β6ICTINFit + β7NRit + β8

PRRit + ϵit

Where:

• TAit : Tourist arrivals for unit i at time t.

• LTA-1it : Lagged tourist arrivals for unit i at time t-1.
• AITit : Air Transport Infrastructure for unit i at time t.
• CRit : Cultural Resources for unit i at time t.
• HHit : Health and Hygiene for unit i at time t.
• HRit : Human Resources for unit i at time t.
• ICTINFit : ICT Infrastructure for unit i at time t.
• NRit : Natural Resources for unit i at time t.
• PRRit : Policy Rules and Regulations for unit i at time t.
• ϵit : Error term.

The coefficient β(x) of all these variables is expected to be positive.

5. Results
The analysis conducted (in table 10) for the period between 2007 and 2023, across 24 countries
(which are the source markets of Moroccan tourism demand), using the Generalized Method of
Moments (GMM) on the panel dataset. It reveals the significant determinants impacting tourist
arrivals, which are similarly, the strategic axes of Morocco’s tourism policy formulation.

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Table 10 : GMM Parameters estimation

Source: Authors

The results indicate that the lagged dependent variable, LAG_TA(-1), has a positive and
statistically significant coefficient of 0.117511 (p-value = 0.0000). This suggests that an
increase in tourist arrivals in the previous period positively influences current arrivals,
highlighting the persistence in tourist behavior. Additionally, the variable LAG_ATI (Air
Transport Infrastructure) displays a significant positive effect on tourist arrivals, with a
coefficient of 840083.1 and a p-value of 0.0021. This finding underscores the critical role of
infrastructure in facilitating tourism, as improved air transport can enhance accessibility and
attract more visitors.
Cultural resources also emerge as a vital determinant, with a coefficient of 4940836.0 for
LAG_CR and a t-statistic of 6.670963 (p-value = 0.0000). This result suggests that the richness
and availability of cultural offerings significantly contribute to attracting tourists, emphasizing
the importance of cultural engagement in tourism strategies.
Human resources show a noteworthy positive relationship with a coefficient of 14980173 and
a t-statistic of 11.50275 (p-value = 0.0000), further emphasizing the necessity for well-trained
personnel in the tourism sector. The results for ICT infrastructure (LAG_ICTINF) also indicate
a significant positive impact on tourist arrivals, with a coefficient of 3787916.0 (p-value =
0.0000), highlighting the importance of digital infrastructure in enhancing tourist experiences
and interactions.
Similarly, natural resources (LAG_NR) and policy rules and regulations (LAG_PRR)
demonstrate significant positive relationships with coefficients of 4817548.0 (p-value = 0.0000)
and 699280.1 (p-value = 0.0056), respectively. These findings suggest that effective policies
and the preservation of natural resources are crucial for attracting tourists. Conversely, the
variable representing health and hygiene (LAG_HH) does not exhibit a statistically significant
impact (p-value = 0.3931).
However, following its qualitative relevance (benchmarking), the investigation conserves the
use of health and hygiene as a strategic axes for formulation future Morocco’s tourism policy,
especially after Covid—19 crisis. Instead, its statistical coefficient is due to the lack of the data
for the Moroccan context.
The validity of the model specifications is supported by the J-statistic of 14.25268 and a
corresponding p-value of 0.579896, indicating that the over-identifying restrictions imposed by
the instruments are valid. The instrument rank of 24 further suggests that there are sufficient

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instruments to identify the model parameters adequately. However, the high residual variance,
evidenced by a sum of squared residuals of 1.01E+15, indicates that there may be significant
variation in tourist arrivals that the model does not fully capture.
scalar pval = @chisq(14.25268, 15)
PVAL = 0.506458
The validity of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation depends on certain
assumptions, notably the validity of the instruments used. The Sargan-Hansen test, a common
diagnostic tool in econometrics, assesses whether these instruments are valid by evaluating the
over-identifying restrictions in the model. Specifically, it tests for the correlation between the
instruments and the error term. In this analysis, the Sargan-Hansen test resulted in a p-value of
0.506458, calculated from the J-statistic (14.25268) compared to a Chi-square distribution with
15 degrees of freedom. This p-value, being greater than conventional significance levels (e.g.,
0.05), indicates that we fail to reject the null hypothesis, suggesting that the instruments are
uncorrelated with the error term and thus valid.
6. Hypothesis testing, policy implications, discussion and limitations
The Moroccan Tourism Roadmap 2023-2026 incorporates key elements identified by
policymakers as crucial for the recovery, emergence, and development of the national tourism
sector. Table 11 presents a comparison between the strategic axes outlined in Morocco’s
roadmap and the strategic axes derived from the qualitative and quantitative investigation,
aiming to confirm one of the research hypotheses.

Table 11: Hypothesis testing and policy implications

1-Moroccan tourism roadmap 2023- 2-Investigation implications for policy-makers

2026 strategic axes (results of benchmarking and econometric study)
Air capacity Air transport infrastructure
Cultural and recreational activities Natural and cultural resources
Quality and skills of human capital Human resources
National hospitality capacities ICT Infrastructure
Health and hygiene
Promotion and marketing
Policy rules and regulation
Second hypothesis is confirmed
Source: Authors
Regarding the results, and considering the convergence of factors, such as air transport
infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, human capital quality and skills, promotion and
marketing, and hospitality capacities, the study confirms the second hypothesis. The 2023-2026
roadmap, which outlines Morocco’s tourism planning vision, does not sufficiently address the
national tourism development challenges in terms of sustainability and competitiveness,
especially when compared to Spain and Portugal's policies for the 2030 FIFA World Cup.
To effectively address the pressures of global sustainability and competitiveness, Morocco’s
future tourism policy must swiftly integrate broader, more innovative approaches. In particular,
prioritizing the adoption of advanced Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
infrastructure, including Digital Tourism Platforms and Smart Tourism Systems (STS), is
essential. These technologies would digitalize decision-making processes, enable real-time
market analysis, and improve the tourist experience by streamlining and globally disseminating

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services such as transportation, booking, and promotion, thereby enhancing efficiency and
satisfaction for both tourists and service providers.
Another critical aspect is the prioritization of travel and tourism activities through the
establishment of clear policy rules and regulations. This strategic pillar aligns with concerns
raised by the National Court of Auditors, which has emphasized the insufficient tourism
planning and development programs at the regional and local levels (Court of Auditors, 2023).
Moreover, the lack of health and hygiene plans integrated into the diverse tourism activities,
particularly post-COVID-19, is an important area where Morocco falls behind its
Mediterranean competitors, namely Spain and Portugal. These countries are already well-
grounded in their tourism policies for the 2030 horizon, with comprehensive health and hygiene
action-plans embedded in their tourism strategies. This presents a significant gap that Morocco
must address to stay competitive in the global tourism market leading up to the 2030 FIFA
World Cup.
Also, these findings highlight that while Morocco’s 2023-2026 tourism roadmap addresses key
elements for recovery and development, it still falls short in key areas such as ICT
infrastructure, health and hygiene integration, and policy regulation. With the FIFA World Cup
2030 approaching, these gaps could hinder Morocco’s ability to meet the expected surge in
tourism demand and global competitiveness. To capitalize on the tournament’s tourism impact,
Morocco must quickly enhance its strategies, integrating digital technologies and robust health
infrastructure and protocols, while fostering a more diversified and sustainable tourism
offering. This would help Morocco align with the standards set by Spain and Portugal and fully
leverage the World Cup’s potential benefits.
7. Conclusion and limitations
The tourism sector is an integral part of economic, social and societal well-being of the
Moroccan society (Sahho, et al., 2021). The development of this sector is incarnated by several
historical and recent tourism policies, programs and plans (Almeida-García, 2018). In 2030,
Morocco will organize the FIFA World Cup in side of Spain and Portugal, both are a worldest
competitive tourism countries, especially for Spain with a total of more than 85 million tourist
arrivals and 108.8 billion euros of tourism expenditures in 2023 (OECD , 2024).
These two Mediterranean tourism leaders have already implemented long-term tourism
policies, with a special focus on sustainability and competitiveness criteria. Namely, Portugal
2030 - Build the Future Action Plan, and Spanish Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030.
To investigate the research problem, objective and hypothesis, the study applies a mixed
methodology, through the combination of the qualitative benchmarking to compare the aspects
of future tourism policies formulation between Morocco, Spain, and Portugal. Also, a dynamic
econometric modelling using a data panel analysis by applying the Generalized Method of
Moments, to test and validate the theoretical studied determinants. To adequately formulate a
future Moroccan tourism policy, and in addition to sustainability and competitiveness factors,
a set of determinants must me taking in consideration. Air transport infrastructure, natural and
cultural resources, human resources, ICT Infrastructure, health and hygiene, policy rules and
regulation (prioritization of travel and tourism activities in the country).
The research concludes that the strategic axes of the Moroccan tourism Roadmap 2023-26 are
well planned, but insufficient to enhance the sector’s development in comparison with
Mediterranean leader destinations (confirming the second hypothesis). The future TP must
acknowledge the core role of ICT infrastructure, for example, developing a tourism intelligent
system (SIT). Also, health and hygiene by implanting an integral plan to promote the public
sanitary and safety equipment of Morocco. And policy rules and regulation through the

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prioritization of the tourism sector in the national, regional and local activities, as part of the
daily nation-life or even a Soft-Power of the country (Spain, Portugal and China are an example
of this pillar).
The study considers a set of limitations that occur from diverse sources. First, the qualitative
benchmarking focus only on the Spain and Portugal tourism policies and covering the most
recent ones, the exhaustivity and inclusion of a broader factors is also critical due to potential
bias of coding process (open, axial, selective). In addition, data collection is limited to the pillars
of Travel & Tourism Competitiveness index (TTCI from 2007 to 2020), and Travel & Tourism
Development index (TTDI from 2021 TO 2024). This transition generated new destinations
sustainability and competitiveness factors, but their data is period lacking.
As a result, in light of the hypothesis regarding the strategic insufficiency of Morocco’s national
tourism roadmap for 2023-26, and considering the horizon of the FIFA World Cup 2030, the
selected determinants for formulating Morocco’s tourism policy, when compared to Spain and
Portugal are confined to the most statistically significant factors. This highlights an opportunity
for further research to address the sustainable and competitive elements, which should become
integral components of future national tourism policy frameworks. To leverage the FIFA World
Cup 2030 as a catalyst for sustainable tourism growth, Morocco must adopt a holistic policy
framework that integrates digital transformation, governance reforms, and health security—
ensuring long-term competitiveness in the global tourism landscape.
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Appendix 1: Network analysis of Morocco’s vision 2010 & 2020

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, 2025,
Vol. 2, No. 2, 33-60. [Link]
Appendix 2: Network analysis of Portugal 2027 Tourism Strategy & Portugal 2030
Reactivate Tourism: Build the Future Action Plan

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, 2025,
Vol. 2, No. 2, 33-60. [Link]
Appendix 3: Network analysis of Spain 2022 Modernization and competitiveness plan
for the tourism sector & Spanish Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030

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