2A UNCERTAINTY

Changes occur all over the world. There are many things that can happen at any given moment, but it is
impossible to say what will happen, with certainty. We do not know whether tomorrow will be a rainy day or a
sunny day. We have no idea about whether the prices of gas will go up or come down in the next couple of
days. What we can say is that there is a possibility of occurring certain things. This possibility of certainty
gives rise to the concept of probability.

2B SAMPLE SPACE

Every time we do something or observe something with the expectation of results. Doing things or observing
things with the expectation of results is termed as experiments. It is a process by which a measurement or an
observation is taken. Such results of the experiments are termed as outcomes. Collection of all these outcomes
constitute the sample space. It is the major tool used in defining the concept of probability. In statistics, the
sample space can present in number of different ways.

 by listing out the elements

 using Cartesian plane
 using tree diagrams
 using Venn diagrams

When the sample space is represented by listing out elements it is denoted by „S‟ and the elements of the sample
space is listed within curly brackets.

Experiment 1: Tossing a coin

When we toss a coin either we will get a head (denoted as H) or a tail (denoted as T). Therefore, the experiment
of tossing a coin has two possible outcomes, H or T.
Then S = {H,T}

Experiment 2 : Throwing a die

In throwing a die, we will get a score of 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 or 6. Then the sample space can be written as
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Experiment 3 : Tossing two coins

If we toss two coins at once we get either heads from both coins (HH), head from the first and tail from the
second (HT), tail from the first and head from the second (TH) or tails from both (TT). So the sample space will
be
S = { HH , HT , TH , TT }

Sample space can also present by using a Cartesian plane. Here, one axis is used to indicate the outcomes of
tossing one coin and the other axis is used to indicate the outcomes of tossing the other coin. Points
corresponding to .the outcomes of tossing two coins are marked with asterisks.

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 Second coin
T * *
H * * (T T)
H T
(HH) First coin

Experiment 4 : Throwing two dice

If we toss two dice, the outcomes will be „1‟ from both dice, „1‟ from the first and „2‟ from the second, „1‟ from
the first and „3‟ from the second and so on. Then there will be 36 outcomes.

S = { (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) }

This can also present by using the Cartesian pane.

6 * * * * * *
5 * * * * * *
Second die

4 * * * * * *
3 * * * * * *
2 * * * * * *
1 * * * * * *
1 2 3 4 5 6
First die

Experiment 5 : Throwing a die and tossing a coin

In throwing the die, we will get a score of 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 or 6. In tossing the coin we will get H or T. Then the
outcomes of throwing a die and tossing a coin will be 1H, 1T, 2H, 2T, …… and so on. The sample space can be
written as
S = { 1H , 2H , 3H , 4H , 5H , 6H, 1T , 2T , 3T , 4T , 5T , 6T }

If we present the sample space by using a Cartesian plane, one axis is used for the die and other axis is used for
the coin.
T * * * * * *
Coin

H * * * * * *
1 2 3 4 5 6
Die
Sample space can also present by using tree diagrams. Here something resembles the branches of a tree is used
to present the possibilities.

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Experiment 6 : Tossing a coin
S={H,T}
Sample space has two outcomes. They can present by drawing two branches originating from the same position.
H

T
Experiment 7 : Tossing two coins

First present the possibilities of the first coin. H

T
If head (H) occurs at the first coin then either head (H) or tail (T) can occur at the second coin.
Then the tree diagram can be extended as H
H
T
T
First coin Second coin

Similarly, if tail (T) occurs at the first coin then either head (H) or tail (T) can occur at the second coin. Then
the tree diagram can be completed as
H (H,H)
H
T (H,T)
H (T,H)
T
T (T,T)
First coin Second coin

Experiment 8 : Tossing three coins

The tree diagram will appear as H (H,H,H)
H
H T (H,H,T)
H (H,T,H)
T
T (H,T,T)
H (T,H,H)
H
T (T,H,T)
T H (T,T,H)
T
T (T,T,T)
First coin Second coin Third coin

35
At the right of the tree diagram, we can write down the different outcomes of the experiment. Then the sample
space for the experiment will be
S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT }

2C EVENTS AND THEIR PROBABILITIES

Sample space includes all the outcomes of an experiment. Therefore, collection of few outcomes is a subset of
the sample space. Such a subset of the sample space is defined as an event. Event divides the outcomes of the
sample space in to two groups, a group of outcomes at which the event does occur and another group of
outcomes at which the event does not occur.

Experiment 9 : Throwing a die

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Define Event 1 = { Getting an odd number }

If the experiment results the outcomes 1 , 3 or 5 we get an odd number and the event does occur. If it results 2 ,
4 or 6 we do not get an odd number and the event does not occur. The sample space has six outcomes, but the
event occurs only at three outcomes. It does not occur at other three outcomes.
Then Event 1 = { 1 , 3 , 5 }
Define Event 2 = { Getting a number less than 4 }
If the experiment results the outcomes 1 , 2 or 3 we get a number less than 4 and the event does occur. If it
results 4 , 5 or 6 we do not get a number less than four and the event does not occur.
Then Event 2 = { 1 , 2 , 3 }

Experiment 10 : Tossing three coins at once

S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT }

Define Event 1 = { Getting exactly two heads }

In tossing three coins we would expect three independent results from the three coins. Therefore, when we are
expecting exactly two heads we should also expect a tail from one coin. Then the event does occur when we are
getting two heads first and then tail, getting head first, then tail and head again and finally getting tail first and
then two heads. The sample space has eight outcomes and the event occurs only at three outcomes.
Event 1 = { HHT , HTH , THH }

Define Event 2 = { Getting a single head }

Getting a single head means getting a head and two tails. This can occur when we are getting head first and then
two tails, getting tail first, then head and tail again and finally getting two tails first and then head. The event
occurs at three outcomes.
Event 2 = { HTT , THT , TTH }

Define Event 3 = {Getting at least one head }

Getting at least one head means getting one or more heads. Therefore the event does occur when we are getting
three heads, getting two heads and tail and finally getting one head and two tails. Three heads occur at only one
outcome (HHH). Two heads and tail occur at three different outcomes (HHT , HTH , THH). One head and two

36
tails occur again at three outcomes (HTT , THT , TTH). Therefore there are seven outcomes at which the event
does occur.
Event 3 = { HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH }

There are eight outcomes in the sample space and in seven of them the event (third event) does occur.
Therefore, the chance or the possibility of occurring this event can be defined as ⅞. We can use this
understanding to define the concept of probability.

Eg 1 : A man tosses a fair coin three times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.
Experiment : Tossing a fair coin three times
S = { HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , THH , THT , TTH , TTT }
Event = { Getting exactly two heads }
= { HHT , HTH , THH }
There are eight outcomes in the sample space. The event does occur at only three outcomes.

( )

Eg 2 : A boy tosses four fair coins. Find the probability of getting at least three heads.

Experiment : Tossing four fair coins

S = { HHHH , HHHT , HHTH , HHTT , HTHH , HTHT , HTTH , HTTT

THHH , THHT , THTH , THTT , TTHH , TTHT , TTTH , TTTT }
Event = { Getting at least three heads }
= { HHHH , HHHT , HHTH , HTHH , THHH }

There are 16 outcomes in the sample space. The event does occur at only five outcomes.

( )

Eg 3 : A boy throws a fair die. Find the probability of getting a score greater than 2.

Experiment : Throwing a fair die

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}

Event = { Getting a score greater than 2 )

={3,4,5,6}

There are six outcomes in the sample space. The event does occur at only four outcomes.

( )

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Eg 4 : A fair die is thrown twice. Find the probability of getting
i. equal scores on both dies
ii. a sum of 10 or more
iii. a score of 5 or more in the first die

Experiment = Throwing a fair die twice

S = { (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) }

Event (i) = { Getting equal scores on both dies }

= { (1,1) , (2,2) , (3,3) , (4,4) , (5,5) , (6,6) }
There are thirty six outcomes in the sample space. The event does occur at only six outcomes.
Event (i)
Using the Cartesian plane
6 * * * * * *
5 * * * * * *
Second die

4 * * * * * *
3 * * * * * *
2 * * * * * *
1 * * * * * *
1 2 3 4 5 6
First die

( )

Event (ii) = { Getting a sum of ten or more }

= { (4,6) , (5,5) , (5,6) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }

Out of the thirty six outcomes in the sample space, the event does occur at only six outcomes.

Using the Cartesian plane Event (ii)

6 * * * * * *
5 * * * * * *
Second die

4 * * * * * *
3 * * * * * *
2 * * * * * *
1 * * * * * *
1 2 3 4 5 6
First die

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 ( )

Event (iii) = { Getting a score 5 or more in the first die }

= { (5,1) , (5,2) , (5,3) , (5,4) , (5.5) , (5,6) , (6,1) , (6,2) , (6,3) , (6,4) , (6,5) , (6,6) }

Out of the thirty six outcomes in the sample space the event does occur at only twelve outcomes.

Using the Cartesian plane Event (iii)

6 * * * * * *
Second die

5 * * * * * *
4 * * * * * *
3 * * * * * *
2 * * * * * *
1 * * * * * *
1 2 3 4 5 6
First die

( )

Eg5 : A ball is selected at random from a box containing five red balls and three white balls. Find the
probability that the selected ball being red.
Answer :
S = { R1 , R2 , R3 , R4 , R5 , W1 , W2 , W3 }
Event = { Selecting a red ball }
= { R1 , R2 , R3 , R4 , R5 }
In selecting a ball there are eight possibilities. We can select one of the five red balls or one of the
three white balls. But the event does occur when we are selecting only a red ball. There are five ways
of occurring that. That is by selecting one of the five red balls.
Then
( )

Eg 6 : A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability of selecting
i. a red card
ii. a club card
iii. a king card
Answer :
The card pack has 52 cards of which 26 are red and other 26 are black. The 26 red cards are of two
groups, 13 heart () cards and 13 diamond () cards. The 26 black cards are also belongs to two
groups, 13 club () cards and 13 spade () cards. The 13 cards in each group are labeled as 2 , 3 , 4 ,
5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , J(Jack) , Q(Queen) , K(King) , A(Ace).

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 Experiment : Selecting a card from pack of playing cards

i. Event : Selecting a red card

There are 26 red cards in the pack and we can select a red card in 26 different ways. Total
number of ways of selecting a card is 52.
Therefore,

( )

ii. Event : Selecting a club card

There are 13 club cards in the pack and we can select a club card in 13 different ways. Since
total number of ways of selecting a card is 52,
Therefore,
( )

iii. Event : Selecting a king card

There are four king cards in the pack. Therefore, number of ways of selecting a king card is 4.
Therefore,

( )

2D PROPERTIES OF EVENTS AND LAWS OF PROBABILITY

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVENESS :There are certain events that cannot occur at the same time. Two events
A and B that cannot occur at the same time are said to beMutually Exclusive Events.
If the two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the joint probability P(A & B) = 0

Eg 7 : Consider the experiment of throwing a die.

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Define Event A = { Getting an odd number }
={1,3,5,}
Event B = { Getting an even number }
={2,4,6}
There is no common outcome at which both events A and B will occur. P(A & B) = 0
Therefore they are mutually exclusive.
Define Event C = { Getting a number greater than 3 }
={4,5,6}
Outcome „5‟ is common to both events A and C. P(A & C) = { 5 }.
Both events A and C occur at „5‟. Therefore A and C are not mutually exclusive.
Similarly it can be shown that the two events B and C are also not mutually exclusive as the two outcomes 4 and
6 are common to both those events.
P(B & C) = { 4 , 6 }

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ADDITIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY : If the two events A and B are mutually exclusive then the
probability of occurring either A or B will be equal to the sum of the probability of occurring event A and the
probability of occurring event B.
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

Eg 8 : Consider the experiment of drawing a card from a well shuffled pack of playing cards.
Define Event A = { Getting a club card }
Event B = { Getting a diamond card }
P ( A ) = P ( Getting a club card } =

P ( B ) = P { Getting a diamond card } =

Therefore, P(A)+P(B)=

There are 26 ways of selecting either a club card or a diamond card.

 P ( A or B ) = P { Getting a club card or a diamond card } =

 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

There is no card which is both club and diamond. It is impossible to get a club card and a diamond card by
selecting a single card. Therefore the two events A and B are mutually exclusive. Therefore, the additive law
of probability does hold.

Define Event C = { Getting a king card }

P ( C ) = P { Getting a king card } =

Then P(A)+P(C)=
But there are only 16 ways of selecting either a king card or a club card –that is by selecting club king card,
three other king cards and 12 other club cards
P ( A or C ) = P { getting a king card or a club card } =

Therefore P ( A or C ) ǂ P ( A ) + P ( B )

If we select the „club king‟ card both the events A and C will occur. The two events A and C are not mutually
exclusive. Therefore, the additive low of probability does not hold.
theadditive low of probability does not hold

EXHAUSTIVENESS : There may be certain events such that the collection of all the outcomes at
which either of these events will occur will include all the outcomes in the sample space. If the two events A
and B are such that the outcomes at which either A or B will occur covers all the outcomes in the sample space
then they are said to be Exhaustive Events.
If A and B are exhaustive events P ( A or B ) = 1

Eg 9 : Consider the experiment of tossing a coin.

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Define Event A = { Getting an odd number }
={1,3,5,}

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 Event B = { Getting an even number }
={2,4,6}
Event A or B = { Getting an odd number or an even number }
={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A or B will cover all elements in the sample space.
 P ( A or B ) =

INDEPENDENCY :- There may be certain events where the occurrence of one event does not depend on
the occurrence of other events. If the two events A and B are such that the occurrence of any of them does not
depend on the occurrence of the other, they are said to be independent.

Eg 10 : Consider the experiment of tossing a coin and throwing a die.

S = { 1H , 2H , 3H , 4H , 5H , 6H, 1T , 2T , 3T , 4T , 5T , 6T }
Define Event A = { Getting an even number }
Event B = { Getting Head }
If it is given that event B has occurred, we are getting only head from the coin. Then the sample space
reduces to
S = { 1H , 2H , 3H , 4H , 5H , 6H}
Then Event A = { 2H , 4H , 6H }
Then P ( A ) = P ( Getting an even number ) =
If it is given that the event B has not occurred, we are getting only tail from the coin. Then the sample
space reduces to
S = { 1T , 2T , 3T , 4T , 5T , 6T}
Then Event A = { 2T , 4T , 6T }
Then P ( Getting an even number ) =

Whatever the result we get from tossing the coin, there is no impact on the result of throwing the die. The two
events A & B are independent of each other. Whether we get head or the tail from the coin the probability of
getting an even number from the die remains the same.

Eg 11: Consider the experiment of selecting two balls one by one without replacement from a bag containing 3
red balls and 2 black balls.

The first ball selected is not replaced. Therefore, when the second ball is selected, number of balls remain in
the bag will be different.

If the first ball selected is a red ball, there will be two red balls and two black balls in the bag when we select
the second ball.
Then
P ( selecting a red ball second time ) = RED – 2

P ( selecting a black ball second time) = BLACK - 2

If the first ball selected is a black ball, there will be 3 red balls and one black ball in the bag when we select the
second ball.

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 Then
RED – 3
P ( selecting a red ball second time) =
BLACK - 1
P ( selecting a black ball second time) =
The probability of selecting a red ball or a black ball at the second time differs according to the color of the
first ball selected. Therefore, the two events are not independent. Second event depends on the first.

MULTIPLICATIVE LAW OF PROBABILITY :- If the two events A and B are

independent of each other, then the joint probability of occurring both events A and B will be the product of the
probability of occurring event A and the probability of occurring event B.
P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)

Eg 12 : One man draws a card from a well shuffled pack of playing cards and at the same time another man
tosses a coin. Find the probability of getting Head and a Queen.
Experiment 1: Tossing a coin – two outcomes
Define Event A = { Getting Head } – occurs at one outcome

P ( Event A ) = P ( Getting Head ) =

Experiment 2 : Selecting a card from the pack of playing cards – 52 outcomes

Define Event B = { Getting Queen } – occurs at four outcomes
P (Event B ) = P ( Getting Queen ) =

Therefore, P ( Getting Head ) * P ( Getting Queen ) =

Experiment 3: Tossing a coin and selecting a card – 104 outcomes

Define Event C = {Getting Head and a Queen} – occurs at 4 outcomes.
P (Event C) = P ( Getting Head and a Queen ) =
Therefore, P (Getting Head and a Queen) = P (Getting Head) * P (Getting Queen)

Two events, getting Head and getting Queen are independent of each other. Therefore the same result can be
obtained as above using the multiplicative law of probability.
P (Getting Head and a Queen) = P (Getting Head) * P (Getting Queen)

Eg 13 : A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of playing cards. Find the probability of selecting a Red Club
card.
Experiment : Selecting a card from a pack of playing cards – 52 outcomes
Define Event A = { Selecting a Club card } – occurs at 13 outcomes
P ( Event A ) = P( Selecting a Club card ) =

Define Event B = { Selecting a Red card } - occurs at 26 outcomes

P ( Event B ) = P ( Selecting a Red card ) =

 P ( Selecting a Red card ) * P ( Selecting a Club card ) =

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But there are no red club cards in the pack.
P (selecting a Red Club card ) = 0
P ( Selecting a Red Club card ) ǂ P ( Selecting a Red card ) x P ( selecting a Club card )
Selecting a club card avoid selecting a red card. One event depends on the other event.

2E CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

When the two events are not independent, the occurrence of one event depends on the occurrence of the other
event. In the calculation of the probability of occurring the event which depends on the other, it is necessary to
know exactly whether the other event has occurred or not. The probability of occurring such events, which
depends on the occurrence of other events is termed as the conditional probability and is defined as
P(A/B) = Probability of occurring event A given that event B has occurred.

Eg 14 : Consider the example of selecting two fruits one by one randomly without replacement from a bag
having 5 apples and 8 oranges.
Apples – 5
P ( Selecting an Apple first ) =
Oranges – 8
P ( Selecting an Orange first ) =

Assuming that the first fruit selected was an apple, number of apples in the bag will decline to 4 while
number of oranges will remain at 8.
Apples – 4
P ( Selecting an Apple as the second fruit ) =
Oranges – 8
P ( Selecting an Orange as the send fruit ) = =

If the two events combined together, then

P ( Selecting an Apple as the second fruit / first fruit was an Apple ) =

P ( Selecting an Orange as the second fruit / first fruit was an Apple ) =

Similarly if the first fruit selected is an orange, number of apples in the bag remains at 5 while number of
oranges will declines 7.

Then P ( Selecting an Apple as the second fruit ) = Apples – 5

P ( Selecting an Orange as the second fruit ) = Oranges – 7

Again if we consider the selection of both fruits, then

P ( Selecting an Apple as the second fruit / first fruit was an Orange ) =

P ( Selecting an Orange as the second fruit / first fruit was an Orange ) =

This understanding on conditional probability will serve as a basis for deriving a formulae for the same.

If the two events A and B are independent, the joint probability of occurring both A and B,
P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)

If the occurrence of B depends on the occurrence of A, P(B) can have two forms.
That is P ( B/A) – the probability of occurring B when A has occurred, and
P ( B/not A) – the probability of occurring B when A has not occurred

44
 But here we are considering the joint probability of occurring both A and B. Therefore, only the first form, that
is P (A/B) – the probability of occurring B when A has occurred, is relevant.
Therefore, when B depends on A,
 P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B/A)
Then by rearranging the formula, the conditional probability of occurring B given that A has occurred can be
defined as
( )
P(B/A)= ( )

In the calculation of conditional probability we can use this formula or restrict the sample space based on the
given criteria.

Eg 15 : A group of 75 students met at the committee room to select a place for spending their next vacation.
Preferences were asked for the three places and summarized as given below.

Gender Place Far East Down South Hill Country Total

Male 12 15 18 45
Female 8 15 7 30
Total 20 30 25 75

If a student is selected at random, find the probability that the selected student is
a. a male student
b. willing to go to Hill Country
c. a female student and willing to go to Down South
d. a male student and not willing to go to Far East
e. a female student given that willing to go to Hill Country
f. willing to go to Down South given that the student is a male
Answers:
a. In total there are 75 students participated for the survey and 45 of them are males.
Therefore P (a male student) =

b. There are 25 students willing to go to Hill Country

Therefore P (willing to go to Hill Country) =

c. There are 15 female students willing to go to Down South

Therefore P (female student and willing to go to Down South) =

d. There are 33 male students not willing to go to Far East

Therefore P (male student and not willing to go to Far East ) =

e. Using the formula for conditional probability

( )
P ( female / willing to go to Hill Country ) =
( )

There are 7 females willing to go to Hill Country.

P ( Female student and willing to go to Hill Country ) =

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 There are 25 willing to go to Hilling Country.

P ( willing to go to Hill Country ) =

( )
 P ( female / willing to go to Hill Country ) = ( )

If we restrict the sample space to those who are willing to go to Hill Country, only 25 students
remain and there are 7 females in that.
 P ( female / willing to go Hill Country ) =
Same answer can be obtained in both methods.

f. Using the formula for conditional probability

( )
P ( willing to go Down South / male ) = ( )

There are 15 male students willing to go Down South.

P ( male student and willing to go Down South ) =

There are 45 male students.

P ( male student) =
( )
 P ( willing to go to Down South / male ) = ( )

If we restrict the sample space to those male students, only 45 students remain and 15 of them
willing to go to Down South.

 P ( willing to go to Down South / male ) =

Same answer can be obtained in both methods.

Eg 16 : Last month 200 customers visited a mobile company to get the connection of a newly introduced
package. Out of them, 40 percent are males and 30 percent of them (males) requested a pre-paid
option. But from all the customers 55 percent requested post-paid option. If a customer is selected at
random, find the probability that the selected customer is
a. a female customer
b. requested pre-paid option
c. a male customer requested post-paid option
d. requested post-paid option given that a female customer
e. a male customer given that requested pre-paid option
Answer :
In this example, observations are classified in two different ways. That is, according to the gender and
according to the preferred option. Therefore, we can easily present this information using a “Venn”
diagram as given in the next page. It is a set of overlapping circles with different circles representing
the number of observations belonging to different classifications.

According to the gender-wise classification, there are two aspects; males and females. Therefore, we
keep males within one circle and females are kept outside that circle. Preferred option is the other

46
classification with two aspects; prepaid and postpaid. Those who preferred pre-paid option are kept in
the other circle and those who preferred postpaid option are kept outside that circle.

Males who preferred prepaid option should kept within both circles, so that they can keep in the
overlapping area of the two circles. Females who preferred postpaid option should keep outside of
both circles as they are not belonging to any of these circles. They cannot keep in the male circles as
they are not males and they cannot keep in the prepaid circle as they do not prefer the prepaid option.
Then the number of customers to be put in to each segment of the Venn diagram can be obtained as
follows.
Number of male customers = 200 * 40 % = 80
Therefore, in the male circle we put 80.
Number of male customers requested pre-paid option = 80 * 30 % = 24
These 24 should be in the male circle as they are males and should be in the pre-paid circle as they
requested pre-paid option. Therefore, we keep them in the overlapping area of the two circles.
Number of male customers not requested pre-paid option = 80 – 24 = 56
These 56 are males but not requested pre-paid option. Therefore, they should be in the male circle but
not in the pre-paid circle. Therefore, we keep them in the non-overlapping area of the male circle.
Total number of customers requested post-paid option = 200 * 55 % = 110
Total number of customers requested pre-paid option = 200 – 110 = 90
Number of male customers requested pre-paid option = 24
Therefore, number of female customers requested pre-paid option = 90 – 24 = 66
These 66 requested pre-paid option. Therefore they should be in the pre-paid circle. But they are
females (not males). Therefore, they cannot be in the male circle. We keep them in the non-
overlapping area of the pre-paid circle.
Number of customers either males or requested pre-paid option = 56 + 24 + 66 = 146
Number of customers neither males nor requested prepaid option = 200 – 146 = 54
These 54 customers cannot include in the male circle as they are not males and cannot include in the
pre-paid circle as they did not request pre-paid option. Therefore, they should kept in the area outside
of both circles.

Then the complete Venn diagram looks like

Males (80)

56 24 66 requested pre-paid
Option (90)
54
56

a. There are 120 female customers in total. (=66 + 54 outside the male circle)

( )

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 b. There are 90 customers requested pre-paid option. (= 24 + 66 inside the pre-paid circle)

( )

c. There are 56 male customers requested post-paid option. (outside the pre-paid circle but inside the
male circle)

( )

d. Using the formulae for conditional probability

( )
P ( requested post-paid option / female ) = ( )

There are 54 female customers requested post-paid option.

P ( female and requested post-paid option ) =
There are 120 female customers.
P ( female customer ) =
( )
 P ( requested post-paid option / female ) = ( )

If we restrict the sample space to females, only 120 female customers remain and 54 of them requested post-
paid option.
 P ( requested postpaid option / female ) =
Same answer can be obtained in both methods.

e. Using the formulae for conditional probability

( )
P ( male / requested pre-paid option ) = ( )

There are 24 male customers requested pre-paid option.

P ( male and requested pre-paid option ) =

There are 90 customers requested pre-paid option.

P ( requested pre-paid option ) =
( )
P ( male / requested pre-paid option ) =
( )

If we restrict the sample space to customers who requested pre-paid option, there are 90 customers remain and
24 of them are males.
 P (male / requested pre-paid option ) =
Same answer can be obtained in both methods.

2F BAYE’S THEOREM

Theory of conditional probability can be extended to have a more useful theorem in probability, the Bayes‟
theorem. If all the elements in the sample space belong to different non-overlapping groups (events) with
known probabilities and in each of these groups the probability of occurring a certain event is known, the Bayes‟
theorem gives the probability of belonging to a particular group when the underlined event has occurred.

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If A1 , A2 , …………, An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is any event in the sample space
then according to the Bayes‟ theorem
P( B / Ai ) P( Ai )
P( Ai / B) 
P( B / A1 ) P( A1 )  P( B / A2 ) P( A2 )  .............  P( B / An ) P( An )

Eg 18 : Let the percentages of customers using three service providers A, B and C are 30%, 40% and 30%
respectively and of those customers 40%, 50% and 60% respectively are females. What percentage of
females are using the service provider A, B and C ?

Define Event A = using service provider A

Event B = using service provider B
Event C = using service provider C
Event F = being a female

Then P ( A ) = 0.3 P ( B) = 0.4 P ( C ) = 0.3

P ( F / A ) = 0.4 P ( F / B ) = 0.5 P ( F / C ) = 0.6

Using the Baye‟s theorem,

the probability of using service provider A given that the customer is a female is
P( F / A) P( A)
P( A / F ) 
P( F / A) P( A)  P( F / B) P( B)  ( F / C ) P(C )

( )
= ( ) ( ) ( )

This implies that 24 % of the female customers are using service provider A.

The probability of using service provider B given that the customer is a female is
P( F / B) P( B)
P( B / F ) 
P( F / A) P( A)  P( F / B) P( B)  ( F / C ) P(C )

( )
= ( ) ( ) ( )

This implies that 40 % of the female customers are using service provider A.

The probability of using service provider B given that the customer is a female is
P( F / C ) P(C )
P(C / F ) 
P( F / A) P( A)  P( F / B) P( B)  ( F / C ) P(C )

( )
= ( ) ( ) ( )

This implies that 36 % of the female customers are using service provider A.

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ADDITIONAL EXERCISES FOR PRACTISE :
1. A card is drawn at random from a pack of playing cards. What is the probability that it is a card with a
king or a queen ?

2. A bag contains four red balls and five black balls. If three balls are drawn out one by one with
replacement what is the probability of obtaining at least two red balls ?

3. An urn contains 4 white balls and 3 red balls. Two balls are drawn at random. What is the probability
that they are of the same color if they are drawn without replacement ?

4. One man draws three cards from well shuffled pack of playing cards without replacement and at the
same time another man tosses a coin. What is the probability of getting three cards of the same suit
(group) and a head ?

5. One bag contains six oranges and five apples and the second bag contains eight apples and four
oranges. If a bag is selected at random and then one fruit is chosen at random find the probability that
an orange will be selected ?

6. In a class of 75 students, students‟ preferences were asked about three different fruits. 30 of them like
apples, 40 like oranges and 50 like grapes. 25 students like both apples and grapes. 10 like all three.
There are 5 who like grapes only and none who like both apples and oranges but not the grapes.
If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she
(i) does not like any of the three fruits?
(ii) like apples and grapes but not the oranges
(iii) like apples only
(iv) like exactly two fruits
(v) like at least one fruit

7. Machines A & B turnout, respectively 10 percent and 90 percent of the total production of an article. If
the probability that machine A turns out a defective article is 0.01 and that machine B turns out a
defective article is 0.05, what is the probability that an article taken at random was made by machine A
given that it is defective.

8. A furniture store has found in its historical records that 30% of its customers are urban and 70% are
suburban. It also classifies customers as good (60%) marginal (30%) and poor (10%). Of the good
customers 20% are urban and 80% are suburban. But marginal customers are split 40% and 60%in the
urban-suburban breakdown. Find the probability that the selected customer is
(i) P (both good and suburban)
(ii) P (Both poor and Urban)
(iii) P(either suburban or good)
(iv) P (poor given that a s/he is a suburban)
(v) P (good given that s/he is an urban)

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